titash wrote: ↑08 May 2024 21:28
Sanman-ji,
Here's the thing:
Its not that MAD aren't aware of the opportunistic politics, or the threat perception. It's a conscious choice to not escalate beyond a point
There are hit jobs in the media daily about Modi / India / Hindus. Likewise with Indexes on Democracy etc.
Its a deliberate game being played by people who don't want their old leverage to go away. They will resist India's rise and will not tolerate another China
You're not taking some things into account here -- these people have multiple balls spinning -- they are engaged in multiple forms of stuntsmanship, and so it's not just their apprehensions about India which have them scrambling around to pull stunts.
They have the war on Russia going on, the Middle East is on the boil, their economies are deteriorating, their productivity is dropping.
America especially is suffering from big money politics dominated by narrow interest groups.
But the train has already left the station. If the 2024 elections return the desired result, then its MAD for 5 more years, irrespective of what the old elites want. It will mean full steam ahead of nuclear deterrence, hypersonics, semiconductors, AI, infrastructure, connectivity, etc. It will mean an economy that has overtaken Japan & Germany, and is in 3rd place behind the US and China
Election isn't over yet -- and western elites have a high incentive to meddle.
I still remember 2004 election, where BJP fumbled badly. Vajpayee and Advani were very overconfident and just totally blew it.
At that point, the lecturing will mean less and less.
Why do you think no one pokes the Chinese? It's because they have the big danda. No Muslim country has done jack $hit to support the Uighurs. No one gives them daily lectures on fascism and democracy sliding. Just bide your time...in 5 years the Pakistanis will be begging to scrub Indian toilets and the Khalistanis will be crying for OCI cards.
Canada is a natural resource hub. If Quebec secedes, it can be one too. It is imperative to indulge in sub-national diplomacy with the premiers of other Canadian provinces, starting now, and convince them that their economic futures depend on India's trade and goodwill after 5-10 years.
The Americans might not tolerate the emergence of a new country on their border, and might meddle to stop it.
The last separatist referendum in Quebec was led by Quebec politician Lucien Bouchard in 1995.
What had happened, was that Brian Mulroney, the leader of Canada's Conservative Party had tried to rope in right-leaning politicians from Quebec into a larger coalition govt that would keep the Conservatives in power in Ottawa, with Mulroney as PM.
In exchange for Bouchard's support, Mulroney had made grand promises of negotiating a new settlement between Quebec and the rest of Canada, on favourable terms which would appease all the Quebec separatists by giving Quebec the power to fully protect the French culture.
However, when it came time to carry out such negotiations, the leaders of all the other Canadian provinces balked, and ganged up against Quebec.
These Meech Lake talks failed miserably, much to the chagrin of Mulroney and his coalition partners.
Lucien Bouchard in particular felt badly stung and betrayed, and immediately pulled out of the coalition govt, launching his campaign for a referendum to achieve Quebec's independence from Canada. All of Canada was in a shock and in a tizzy.
Then something very
mysterious and shocking happened.
After one of his separatist campaign events, Bouchard became dizzy and had to be hospitalized. He had suddenly come down with a near-fatal and life-threatening case of Flesh-Eating Bacteria (Necrotizing Fascitis) - a deadly infection which dissolved the very flesh of his body, leaving him crippled. He was able to regain some functionality of his limbs, but could no longer walk. His battle to recuperate from the rare and deadly infection which mysteriously struck him down made him even more of a folk hero in the eyes of his fellow Quebecers.
The separatist side did lose the referendum, mainly due to immigrant voters who voted against it, prompting another longtime separatist leader Jacques Parizeau to angrily blame the minorities for sabotaging the dreams of Quebec's independence.
Call me a conspiracy theorist, but I've never believed that Bouchard's sudden mysterious near-fatal infection was just a random coincidence.
The timing was just too convenient. As soon as charismatic separatist leader emerges to announce independence campaign he gets struck down by deadly infection??
That's like announcing your opposition to Putin and suddenly coming down with Polonium poisoning.
If Canada's deep state didn't do it, then America's more capable deep state did it. The Americans would not like a new state to suddenly appear on their borders, because that would introduce new political variables that outside powers could easily exploit to undermine America's national security on its own home continent. Remember that France and Russia had traditionally been allies during Europe's great power wars.
Maybe if Nijjar had died from Necrotizing Fascitis, then Canada's political establishment would have had no choice but to quietly accept it. (ie. People Who Live in Glass Houses...)
They are not on BR because they are busy actually achieving Indian interests based on plans they have already made towards 2047. Dr SJ has recently given an interview on "the next five years" for the world.
