Over the next decade a new cold war will take shape. Two alliances will take shape during this time. One alliance already exists, i.e. the NATO+ alliance. Which is NATO plus the other western allies like Japan, South Korea, Israel, Australia, New Zealand, minus Turkey. Over the next decade, Turkey will be out of NATO. Some other smaller countries that will also be part of this alliance will be the gulf arab states of Saudi, UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait.
The other alliance will be a China led loose alliance of China, North Korea, Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, and Qatar.
There will be two frontline states that will be able to tip of the balance either ways. Russia and India.
Recently we have seen the news of a proposed China Iran deal worth upto $400 billion. This is nothing but a CPEC style distress sale deal. Iran is still trying to understand the contours of the deal, as most likely it will be nothing but a colonial style deal, which will effectively make Iran a colony of China. Iran currently does not have too many options, as the economic situation at home is worsening and once covid is over, the mullahs will find it harder to hold onto power and avoid demonstrations and protests at home. Once they assess that the situation is truly bad, they will have no choice but to sign up for the deal with China. They will get assured long term contracts for their oil with China. Large scale infrastructure development like the Chabahar port and road and rail connectivity to central Asia and Afghanistan. This will unlock vast oil and gas reserves in central Asia and unlock Afghanistan fully. Throughout history there has never been a time when Pakistan and Iran has been on the same side in Afghanistan. Right from the days of Mughal and Safavid empires. With China also on board, no other country would be able to wield any significant influence in Afghanistan. The mineral wealth like Lithium, Copper, Iron Ore and rare earth minerals will be easy to extract for Chinese companies. China will also get the choke hold on the Persian gulf and the straight of Hormuz and gulf of Oman, with control of the Chabahar and Gwadar ports and military bases in between. Plus Iran’s own military control over the traight of Hormuz. Coupled with China’s military base in Djibouti, it will give China some control over the excess between the Red and Arabian Sea.
The coming 21st Century Cold War
Re: The coming 21st Century Cold War
This brings us to the two frontline states. Russia and India.
In the case of Russia, it is already leaning a lot towards China, with increasing economic dependence and continuing western sanctions. Plus the traditional old cold war rivalry with the west and NATO.
However, I’m sure Putin is aware of the dangers of too close an embrace with the Chinese dragon. Also, Russia is also aware that with the continued ascent of China and its own economic woes, it will have to play second fiddle to the Chinese in the years to come. It is also vary of the Chinese appetite for its resources, from mineral to land and also fresh water and would certainly like to be master of its own resources. Already there have been reports of wealthy Chinese buying up prime real estate on the banks of lake Baikal and other places, much to the displeasure of the local population. However, adversarial policies still being followed primarily by the US-UK combine is not helping the matters.
Similar to Iran, if the domestic economy continues to struggle, Russia will have no other option then to lean more and more on China. Currently the EU is still Russia’s biggest trading partner. But, if the sanctions are increased and projects like the Nord Stream-II are scuttled, Russia will struggle. Oil and gas prices are expected to remain weak going forward and for most other natural resources, China will be the biggest market.
What can China Offer Russia:
Come 2025 approximately, if the current western sanctions against Russia have continued or increased and the Russian economy is struggling, Putin would feel the domestic pressure increasing. It is easy to imagine China offering a bailout distress sale offer of say $1 Trillion to Russia. The deal would include like for other countries, large scale infrastructure development. Developing ports for trans-shipment etc. on the Russian arctic coast. Oil and gas pipelines running from the arctic to the Arabian Sea, via Iran and central Asia-Afghanistan-Pakistan. China could also offer Russia joint control over the central Asian dictators. The economy would be mainly controlled by China, whereas Russian oil and gas companies would share the spoils with Chinese companies for the hydro carbon resources of these countries. The foreign policy and defence policy of the countries would be jointly controlled by China and Russia. This way Russia’s traditional sphere of influence would be safe guarded-somewhat. Apart from the north-south hydro carbon pipelines, such an alliance would be able to develop oil and gas pipelines running all along the OBOR projects, resulting in pipelines all the way from Vladivostok to the Caspian and Black seas, to the Mediterranean sea.
With Turkey too being part of the informal alliance, it would secure the caucuses region for Russia. All the wannabe jihadis could be sent off to fight against western targets, rather than fester in Russia’s soft underbelly. It would also be for the first time in history that Russia and Turkey would be on the same side, as far as the caucuses region would be concerned.
Apart from all this, it would help Putin stay in power for ever, with Chinese economic assistance, the same way the mullahs in Iran and every other tin pot dictator in Central Asia and Africa would gain.
If Russia were to become a part of the China led alliance, then by 2030, this alliance would be stronger militarily as compared to the NATO plus alliance.
What can the Western Alliance Offer Russia:
Closer economic integration with Europe and western economies. End to the sanctions against Russia and support for projects like Nord Stream-II. A negotiated settlement with Ukraine, which would recognize Russian control over Crimea (either outright annexation or say a 99 or 199 year lease etc), in exchange for full Ukrainian control over Mariopol with unhindered access. Removal of all Russia backed mercenary militias from eastern Ukraine and disarming all Russia backed separatists in eastern Ukraine, in exchange for some measure of autonomy to the elected local government of Donetsk and Luhansk. Ukraine not becoming part of NATO.
In exchange for the above, Russian would remain out of the China led alliance and also help put pressure on Turkey and not sell weapons to countries like Iran etc. Russia wouldn’t mind such a situation; as it would be able to remain kind of neutral, while enjoying the best of both worlds.
Also, Putin most likely understands the dangers that a rampant China poses, to Russia itself.
However, what would be the guarantee that Russia would honour its part of the bargain and not join up with China if push came to shove? I currently can’t think of any strong measures that the western alliance can take to ensure this.
Any ideas with regards to this would be welcome.
In the case of Russia, it is already leaning a lot towards China, with increasing economic dependence and continuing western sanctions. Plus the traditional old cold war rivalry with the west and NATO.
However, I’m sure Putin is aware of the dangers of too close an embrace with the Chinese dragon. Also, Russia is also aware that with the continued ascent of China and its own economic woes, it will have to play second fiddle to the Chinese in the years to come. It is also vary of the Chinese appetite for its resources, from mineral to land and also fresh water and would certainly like to be master of its own resources. Already there have been reports of wealthy Chinese buying up prime real estate on the banks of lake Baikal and other places, much to the displeasure of the local population. However, adversarial policies still being followed primarily by the US-UK combine is not helping the matters.
Similar to Iran, if the domestic economy continues to struggle, Russia will have no other option then to lean more and more on China. Currently the EU is still Russia’s biggest trading partner. But, if the sanctions are increased and projects like the Nord Stream-II are scuttled, Russia will struggle. Oil and gas prices are expected to remain weak going forward and for most other natural resources, China will be the biggest market.
What can China Offer Russia:
Come 2025 approximately, if the current western sanctions against Russia have continued or increased and the Russian economy is struggling, Putin would feel the domestic pressure increasing. It is easy to imagine China offering a bailout distress sale offer of say $1 Trillion to Russia. The deal would include like for other countries, large scale infrastructure development. Developing ports for trans-shipment etc. on the Russian arctic coast. Oil and gas pipelines running from the arctic to the Arabian Sea, via Iran and central Asia-Afghanistan-Pakistan. China could also offer Russia joint control over the central Asian dictators. The economy would be mainly controlled by China, whereas Russian oil and gas companies would share the spoils with Chinese companies for the hydro carbon resources of these countries. The foreign policy and defence policy of the countries would be jointly controlled by China and Russia. This way Russia’s traditional sphere of influence would be safe guarded-somewhat. Apart from the north-south hydro carbon pipelines, such an alliance would be able to develop oil and gas pipelines running all along the OBOR projects, resulting in pipelines all the way from Vladivostok to the Caspian and Black seas, to the Mediterranean sea.
With Turkey too being part of the informal alliance, it would secure the caucuses region for Russia. All the wannabe jihadis could be sent off to fight against western targets, rather than fester in Russia’s soft underbelly. It would also be for the first time in history that Russia and Turkey would be on the same side, as far as the caucuses region would be concerned.
Apart from all this, it would help Putin stay in power for ever, with Chinese economic assistance, the same way the mullahs in Iran and every other tin pot dictator in Central Asia and Africa would gain.
If Russia were to become a part of the China led alliance, then by 2030, this alliance would be stronger militarily as compared to the NATO plus alliance.
What can the Western Alliance Offer Russia:
Closer economic integration with Europe and western economies. End to the sanctions against Russia and support for projects like Nord Stream-II. A negotiated settlement with Ukraine, which would recognize Russian control over Crimea (either outright annexation or say a 99 or 199 year lease etc), in exchange for full Ukrainian control over Mariopol with unhindered access. Removal of all Russia backed mercenary militias from eastern Ukraine and disarming all Russia backed separatists in eastern Ukraine, in exchange for some measure of autonomy to the elected local government of Donetsk and Luhansk. Ukraine not becoming part of NATO.
In exchange for the above, Russian would remain out of the China led alliance and also help put pressure on Turkey and not sell weapons to countries like Iran etc. Russia wouldn’t mind such a situation; as it would be able to remain kind of neutral, while enjoying the best of both worlds.
Also, Putin most likely understands the dangers that a rampant China poses, to Russia itself.
However, what would be the guarantee that Russia would honour its part of the bargain and not join up with China if push came to shove? I currently can’t think of any strong measures that the western alliance can take to ensure this.
Any ideas with regards to this would be welcome.
Re: The coming 21st Century Cold War
Second frontline state India:
India would be natural partner and ally of the western alliance. However, as on date, India is not part of any kind of formal or informal alliance.
Just to play the devil’s advocate and explore the other option, we can also look at what India could gain or loose by joining a China led alliance.
What could India offer China and vice a versa:
India could negotiate with China to drop Pakistan as its trusted henchmen and colony and instead let Pakistan disintegrate. In return, India would join the China OBOR project and would look to integrate even more closely in the economic sphere with China. This would also buy India peace on its eastern border, while the threat on the western border would have been neutralized.
India would also be able to join China as a partner in OBOR related projects in its neighbourhood in countries like Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Maldives etc. being in alliance with China, would also ensure peace and complete control over the Indian Ocean region. Economically India would still be able to continue its transactions with western countries, just as China does and if India and Russia, both were to be part of the China led alliance, then militarily the alliance would hold the sway, all the way from the eastern Mediterranean to half of the Pacific Ocean.
With both India and China being on the same side, would force most of south east Asian countries and African countries also accept the hegemony of such a China led alliance.
However, in such an arrangement, India would always remain subservient to China and would always have to play second fiddle to the Chinese. Besides Chinese economic strategy has always been predatory and no other country in the China led alliance would be an economic competitor to China, apart from India. This would not be a good situation for India.
What could India get by joining the Western Alliance:
If India were to formally or informally join the western alliance, than the military balance between the two blocks would get balanced by 2030, even if Russia were to become part of the China led alliance. Without Russia, the military balance would remain in favour of the western alliance with India become part of it.
India would also be an economic competitor for China and would help balance out the Chinese influence in the wider south east Asian and African regions.
If India were to really shed it non-aligned stance and join such an alliance, either through bilateral agreements or also few multilateral agreements, then India must recognize what it brings to the table and negotiate accordingly.
The negotiations should ensure that it covers all aspects of India’s national power and not just the military aspect.
In this respect the deal that India should look for should be more like what Japan or Germany or South Korea got in the post war years. Any kind of military alliance should also include Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) between India and the EU, UK and USA. The FTA’s should be slightly more favourable to India in all cases, India being a developing country, while all the others are highly developed. In addition to this, increasing India’s economic muscle should be one of the stated objectives of such FTA’s.
Even preferential immigration treatment for Indians in all western countries, as well as the Gulf Arab monarchies. As the remittance from such workers is like labour exports for India.
There could be bilateral FMS style economic deals, concerning large western countries setting up manufacturing etc in India. The Indian government could also dole out one time company or industry specific concessions for companies moving their operation from China to India.
Some would say that in a free market economy, this would not be possible and the government would not be able to dictate where companies setup operations. But in practice this is not true.
Even in the US, the government does have a say and geo politics does play a role in business as well.
As an example, a company like Intel would not be free to setup a world class fab anywhere in the world, without the US government being OK with it.
The deal should also include access to critical military technology and military hardware. The first would be more difficult, as the western MIC needs countries like India to survive and India remains one of the last major buyers of large scale military equipment. However, for almost 75 years, India has been the ultimate prize to be lured out of the non-aligned stance and formally join a politico-military alliance. India should realize its own importance and look to punch above its weight.
If India were to formally join a western alliance, in the year to come, it would become the lynch pin against Chinese hegemony in Asia. Without India, the battle for the western alliance would be much more difficult. India might also help the western alliance keep Russia as neutral, due to its traditional friendly ties.
At the same time, one also has to recognize, that the time for non-alignment is over. During the 20th century cold war, the main battle ground was Europe and India was mostly not directly affected and hence could remain non-aligned, while leaning a little towards the Soviet Union.
In the coming cold war of the 21st century, the battle ground will be Asia and India will be right in the middle of it. This time around it will not have the luxury of remaining non-aligned.
India would be natural partner and ally of the western alliance. However, as on date, India is not part of any kind of formal or informal alliance.
Just to play the devil’s advocate and explore the other option, we can also look at what India could gain or loose by joining a China led alliance.
What could India offer China and vice a versa:
India could negotiate with China to drop Pakistan as its trusted henchmen and colony and instead let Pakistan disintegrate. In return, India would join the China OBOR project and would look to integrate even more closely in the economic sphere with China. This would also buy India peace on its eastern border, while the threat on the western border would have been neutralized.
India would also be able to join China as a partner in OBOR related projects in its neighbourhood in countries like Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Maldives etc. being in alliance with China, would also ensure peace and complete control over the Indian Ocean region. Economically India would still be able to continue its transactions with western countries, just as China does and if India and Russia, both were to be part of the China led alliance, then militarily the alliance would hold the sway, all the way from the eastern Mediterranean to half of the Pacific Ocean.
With both India and China being on the same side, would force most of south east Asian countries and African countries also accept the hegemony of such a China led alliance.
However, in such an arrangement, India would always remain subservient to China and would always have to play second fiddle to the Chinese. Besides Chinese economic strategy has always been predatory and no other country in the China led alliance would be an economic competitor to China, apart from India. This would not be a good situation for India.
What could India get by joining the Western Alliance:
If India were to formally or informally join the western alliance, than the military balance between the two blocks would get balanced by 2030, even if Russia were to become part of the China led alliance. Without Russia, the military balance would remain in favour of the western alliance with India become part of it.
India would also be an economic competitor for China and would help balance out the Chinese influence in the wider south east Asian and African regions.
If India were to really shed it non-aligned stance and join such an alliance, either through bilateral agreements or also few multilateral agreements, then India must recognize what it brings to the table and negotiate accordingly.
The negotiations should ensure that it covers all aspects of India’s national power and not just the military aspect.
In this respect the deal that India should look for should be more like what Japan or Germany or South Korea got in the post war years. Any kind of military alliance should also include Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) between India and the EU, UK and USA. The FTA’s should be slightly more favourable to India in all cases, India being a developing country, while all the others are highly developed. In addition to this, increasing India’s economic muscle should be one of the stated objectives of such FTA’s.
Even preferential immigration treatment for Indians in all western countries, as well as the Gulf Arab monarchies. As the remittance from such workers is like labour exports for India.
There could be bilateral FMS style economic deals, concerning large western countries setting up manufacturing etc in India. The Indian government could also dole out one time company or industry specific concessions for companies moving their operation from China to India.
Some would say that in a free market economy, this would not be possible and the government would not be able to dictate where companies setup operations. But in practice this is not true.
Even in the US, the government does have a say and geo politics does play a role in business as well.
As an example, a company like Intel would not be free to setup a world class fab anywhere in the world, without the US government being OK with it.
The deal should also include access to critical military technology and military hardware. The first would be more difficult, as the western MIC needs countries like India to survive and India remains one of the last major buyers of large scale military equipment. However, for almost 75 years, India has been the ultimate prize to be lured out of the non-aligned stance and formally join a politico-military alliance. India should realize its own importance and look to punch above its weight.
If India were to formally join a western alliance, in the year to come, it would become the lynch pin against Chinese hegemony in Asia. Without India, the battle for the western alliance would be much more difficult. India might also help the western alliance keep Russia as neutral, due to its traditional friendly ties.
At the same time, one also has to recognize, that the time for non-alignment is over. During the 20th century cold war, the main battle ground was Europe and India was mostly not directly affected and hence could remain non-aligned, while leaning a little towards the Soviet Union.
In the coming cold war of the 21st century, the battle ground will be Asia and India will be right in the middle of it. This time around it will not have the luxury of remaining non-aligned.