India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 10 Aug 2023 20:31

'A future war with China may start at a higher tempo'
https://www.rediff.com/news/interview/g ... 230807.htm
07 August 2023

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 18 Aug 2023 19:06

India, China to hold 19th Corps Commander talks on August 14
https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/ ... 8.ece/amp/
13 August 2023

The 18th round of Corps Commander talks were held at the Chushul Moldo meeting point on the Chinese side on April 23 just ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Defence Ministers meeting.

19th round of military talks: India presses for access to all old patrolling points along the LAC
https://indianexpress.com/article/india ... c-8892864/
15 August 2023

There has been no definitive forward movement in the last few rounds of military talks on resolution of legacy issues or an overall de-escalation of troops in eastern Ladakh.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 18 Aug 2023 19:15

China’s claim to Tibet ‘incorrect, bid to rewrite history’: Gen Naravane backs Tibetan freedom struggle
https://theprint.in/defence/chinas-clai ... e/1717345/
16 August 2023

At 6th International Rangzen (Independence) Conference in Delhi, former Army chief takes on China, says Tibetans world over have legitimate right to return to land of their forefathers.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 18 Aug 2023 19:37

Unbelievable. Bravo.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 18 Aug 2023 20:50

WTF.

Nice.

Larry Walker · Post by **Larry Walker** » 18 Aug 2023 22:52

IA chief going hard on PRC is an indication that GoI is of the assessment that the balloon will go up anytime now.

yensoy · Post by **yensoy** » 18 Aug 2023 23:15

Larry Walker wrote: ↑18 Aug 2023 22:52 IA chief going hard on PRC is an indication that GoI is of the assessment that the balloon will go up anytime now.

Not quite sure of balloon, but this is a reminder to Chinese that if they are not going to come forward and clearly delineate claims, we can also revisit our own perception of the border.

Manas · Post by **Manas** » 19 Aug 2023 02:22

China has taken every action possible that is detrimental to India's security over the last few decades with ZERO consequences. In fact despite all the adversarial actions against India it has gotten a free ride exporting $10'sB goods annually to India and running up huge trade surpluses.

China has brazenly given Nuke technology to Pakistan, repeatedly supported terrorism by blocking UN designation of terrorists based in Pakistan, given stapled visas to Indian citizens in Kashmir, Jammu and Ladakh, Arunachal Pradesh, repeatedly voted to keep India out of the NSG, repeatedly attempted to turn Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Nepal against India, salami sliced territory at the LAC in the North East and Ladakh.

On the contrary India has adhered to the One China policy. If India discards the One China policy and recognizes Taiwan and Tibet's independence and starts to supply more advanced missile technology to Taiwan, Vietnam etc there is very little that China can do to go up the escalatory ladder. Perhaps recognize some fake Kashmir govt "in exile" that will have very little international bearing.

In other words India has paid a very heavy price without playing all its cards in this unequal relationship.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 19 Aug 2023 03:48

I think we need to relook Galwan instance. Please look at Dean's sir blog on the same. Though the blog is focused on why TSP did not escalate during Galwan (it did on surface) towards a 2 front war, the important thing is Galwan was just not a localised border conflict. It was suppose to be a 2 front war. In fact it was a grand PRC push (like 1962) to teach I a lesson and shut it down for few decades so that PRC can march without the pesky Indians holding them down. On whole North front, (not just eastern Ladakh), they may have had 200k soldiers, over and above their traditional 10-20 K that they had maintained for last many decades. Just before Galwan, they had conducted a grand winter exercise and then did not withdraw back.
So then what happened? The PRC plan could have been to fight a quick war, defeat the Indians, capture (or not capture, just defeat) land. They wanted TSP to escalate so that India may not be able to relocate troops from TSP border to China border.
What did India do in response
1) Matched troops for troops, it also very fast inducted as many troops (perhaps more, as India through all of northern front maintains close to 200k troops)
2)Showed intent through IAF planes. In 2020 PRC was not ready with its air force in Tibet. It is now, but not during Galwan, while we had our airforce, ready to participate in war during Galwan. That would have bestowed strategic advantage to us.
3) At Galwan, it showed that the show of force or numbers or technology did not intimidate us, we were ready and willing to escalate. The Galwan exchange was also one sided, while we lost 20 bravehearts, Chicoms lost much much more.
4)IN was also ready to interdict Chinese merchant ships (PLAN though biggest Navy is still absent past Malacca)

Galwan was truly Xi's waterloo. It was its last chance to surprise us,he couldn't. Defending in mountain is much easier. China needs its huge mechanized infantry to come to LAC from a high altitude, very cold desert(Tibet). Tibet around Lahasa can support a million people (and hence Sikkim is at risk), but elsewhere sustaining 100k troops is very hard. There are small villages around Depsang, perhaps some 200-300 Tibetians live there and the land can support only that much. To put 40,000 soldiers there is tough. Water, food, shelter, even oxygen is at short supply. In war, the centers (that are fixed) that support them will be targeted. Without food or water, which army will fight? The supply lines are long and can be interdicted.

Now it can fight, spoil relations with its neighbor, but I doubt it can win anything.

sanjayc · Post by **sanjayc** » 19 Aug 2023 09:00

^^ Considering all this, it would have been much easier for Indians to have killed thousands of Chinese in 1962, had we only used our air force to drop bombs. Chinese had no air force in Tibet that time and their soldiers and supply lines (extending over 1,000 kms through hostile terrain) would have been sitting ducks. But that Nehru cluck did not use the only advantage that we had, fought on Chinese terms (soldier against solider) and give India a psychological wound that is only now beginning to heal after Galwan. Just being blue-eyed boy of the British was poor qualification to take on Mao.

Roop · Post by **Roop** » 19 Aug 2023 09:46

Rakesh wrote: ↑18 Aug 2023 19:15 China’s claim to Tibet ‘incorrect, bid to rewrite history’: Gen Naravane backs Tibetan freedom struggle
https://theprint.in/defence/chinas-clai ... e/1717345/
16 August 2023

At 6th International Rangzen (Independence) Conference in Delhi, former Army chief takes on China, says Tibetans world over have legitimate right to return to land of their forefathers.

Holy Kanoli, Batman, this is HUGE!! I am stunned (in a good way, of course) by this, I am delighted.

This is a welcome trend (and make no mistake, it is a trend) in India's foreign policy. Here's what I mean by that:

A few months ago (in April) there was a joint Air Force exercise with the USAF in Kalaikunda. The US deployed the usual lineup of fighters, but also the B1 bomber, for crying out loud! This was very significant, and I commented on it here: viewtopic.php?p=2585983#p2585983
India has been drawing openly closer to Western nations militarily and politically -- think joint basing / training / logistics facilities with the US, France, Japan and even Australia. Allowing the US and French navies to visit Karwar, servicing USN ships in Chennai, even inviting the Australian defence minister and his staff to visit Vikrant, etc. Who the hell could have imagined this happening in the good old pacifist non-aligned India of INC days? Are you kidding me?!
The unabashed celebrations of warmth / closeness with France (marching in each other's military parades) and the US (I'm sure we all remember the PM's recent visit) are not just declaring something, they are screaming it. I wouldn't be surprised if something is happening behind the scenes with Japan, but that's just my speculation.
The recent visits to Taiwan by the three retired military service chiefs. That was the equivalent of a rude middle-finger gesture to China.
And now Gen. Naravane's latest statement about Tibet. That was about as subtle as a kick in the b@alls to China.

I think this means the following:

M & D have concluded that war with China is a high probability in the near future (say 3 to 5 yrs).
If war comes, the West will support us diplomatically and probably supply-chain-wise.
They will not send their forces to fight, but we don't want that anyway.
If there is a military clash (an actual shooting war) in J&K, Ladakh and/or Arunachal, the hostilities won't be confined to a land war -- several naval engagements are possible/likely, and the Quad navies may get involved.

hgupta · Post by **hgupta** » 21 Aug 2023 19:52

What we need is constant fresh up to date on China's capabilities, whereabouts of its forces, and ELINT. India can supply the rest such as the missiles and forces necessary to take out these forces. The Ukraine war has shown what a nation with very limited forces or the lack of an air force can do with missiles and drones if aided by the supply of fresh intel.

Ashokk · Post by **Ashokk** » 24 Aug 2023 13:49

https://twitter.com/OsintTV/status/1694545494024831354

Unseen picture of the 2020 confrontation between Chinese and Indian armies

Presumably image captured from the Chinese side

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 24 Aug 2023 14:50

Amusing that the PRC needs to release information in dibs and dabs.

Those clowns don't understand that the Indian army is not going to be bothered by this picture. As they perfectly understand what happened.

The real issue is the family and it's retainers.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 29 Aug 2023 21:24

How And Why Of Kailash Range Operation In Ladakh

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 29 Aug 2023 21:24

‘Kailash Range Operation Turned The Tables On The PLA’

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 29 Aug 2023 21:32

"Absurd Claims Don't Make..." S Jaishankar To NDTV On China's New Map
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/making- ... na-4339360
29 August 2023

"Absurd Claims Don't Make..." S Jaishankar To NDTV On China's New Map

^^^ Above response is due to this below....

https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/sta ... 70945?s=20 ---> The 2023 edition of China's standard map was officially released on Monday and launched on the website of the standard map service hosted by the Ministry of Natural Resources. This map is compiled based on the drawing method of national boundaries of China and various countries in the world.

VinodTK · Post by **VinodTK** » 30 Aug 2023 03:10

In Hindi on how IA took the Kailash Range
कैलाश रेंज पर भारत ने कैसे जमाया कब्ज़ा

bala · Post by **bala** » 30 Aug 2023 10:50

How is China Weakening from Within; Can Xi Jinping Trust His Men by Lt Gen Raj Shukla

The Reality of the Situation Inside China. Geopolitics of a weakening China.

An HR crisis is brewing in the CCCP and PLA. The Chinese battle command head dies mysteriously. The long range rocket force has had a purge, Xi Jinping has no trust of the generals in charge. A top advisor is saying that China is not ready for any confrontation, deterrence is costly; but wars are costlier.

On the economic front there are dark clouds. There are various reports indicating negative growth and many doubt the GDP numbers of China. Unemployment is raging at 20% but some believe could be as high as 40%. Capital flight is happening, real estate valuations are crumbling. The banking crisis is impending, the debt total is 9T at least.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 30 Aug 2023 19:01

^^^
@bala: An uneasy/troubled China is a dangerous China. They can lash out at neighbours to divert attention from internal issues. A stable/confident China is equally dangerous for India. That is when hubris sets in for the ChiComs, which leads to adventurism. At both ends of the spectrum, China is an adversary that India needs to be prepared for.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 30 Aug 2023 19:01

At LAC, China is not settling ‘disputed’ borders. It’s containing India
https://theprint.in/opinion/at-lac-chin ... a/1735155/
29 August 2023

By Lt Gen Prakash Menon (retd)

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 30 Aug 2023 19:09

Vishnu Som has come out with a new piece on China. See below...

China Goes Underground In Aksai Chin - What It Means For Indian Forces
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/china-g ... _topscroll
30 August 2023

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 30 Aug 2023 19:10

https://twitter.com/Rezhasan/status/169 ... 31296?s=20 ---> China is building reinforced bunkers & underground facilities in Aksai Chin, 70 km from LAC, experts say move aims to ensure survivability of crucial assets & command posts. Reporting with new satellite images from @Maxar.

bala · Post by **bala** » 31 Aug 2023 04:22

Vishnu Som explaining Aksai Chin underground structures by China

Prem Kumar · Post by **Prem Kumar** » 31 Aug 2023 13:18

My thoughts:

1) The alacrity of China is only matched by the scant attention paid by our IAF planners to even have proper HAS in our frontline bases. We should be digging hangars, depots etc into the hills & underground. While LAC infra is going on at full speed, our airbases are semi-naked, with MAFI being restricted to only night-landing, runway lengthening etc

2) Invest heavily in bunker busters and induct them in numbers

3) Revisit the doctrine. Against both Pakistan and China, we seem to think that attacking an enemy airfield is only to be done by aircraft. Its a doctrine that's both expensive & risky. What we ought to do is build up a large rocket-force that acts as a conventional counter-force. Fit bunker-busting warheads on Pralay & Shaurya class of missiles. The enemy can repair his runway. But cannot replenish an entire squadron that we wipe out on the ground. South Korea just unveiled a tactical ballistic missile that does precisely this. We have to think outside the box, like how we did with SMART

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 31 Aug 2023 17:42

Kailash Range Operations Reshaped Ladakh Standoff Narrative
https://bharatshakti.in/kailash-range-o ... narrative/
31 August 2023

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 31 Aug 2023 18:25

sept/oct/nov is the best time for war in Ladhak and Arunachal - Just saying

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 31 Aug 2023 18:29

Right in time before the 2024 elections.

bala · Post by **bala** » 31 Aug 2023 21:47

Time to revisit "One China". Emperor Eleven's Haseen sapne. Dwindling exports, dwindling real estate valuation, dwindling employment, dwindling strategic thinking, dwindling trust of PLA personnel, dwindling confidence of Chinese abroad in entity called China, ..etc.

shaun · Post by **shaun** » 31 Aug 2023 23:50

fanne wrote: ↑31 Aug 2023 18:25 sept/oct/nov is the best time for war in Ladhak and Arunachal - Just saying

Indian government testing its emergency alert system.

https://www.indiatimes.com/technology/h ... 12420.html

Anoop · Post by **Anoop** » 06 Sep 2023 04:40

bala · Post by **bala** » 07 Sep 2023 01:20

Is Trans LAC (Line of actual control) Clash Imminent. There are reports that China is taking over some Russian border territory, while Russia is engaged in war with Ukraine. The new map (EAM Jai termed it "absurd", i would call it imbecilic) is annoying every neighbor (Chinese half-brained, half-IQ ambassadors bad mouth other nations) and shows China as belligerent, pissed-off nation which fights with everyone. Just notice pictures of armed forces of China, all barking and looking ferocious but the timid size and puny shape of their personnel makes one laugh loudly at the parody.

We all know the reasons for the clash but these factors are sharpening the resolve of China to lash out.

1. Struggling economy, unemployment numbers are rising
2. Ageing population, quality of personnel in the armed forces
3. Shrinking international support (Covid backlash)
4. Emperor disillusionment of his own commanders/leaders. There is huge pressure on Emperor to show results.
5. PLA high profile generals being dismissed, rocket force turmoil and 1 child policy causing young recruits to rethink whether it is worth risking their lives.
6. Many of the Jee Whiz equipment of China does not work in the field due to poor quality, complicated stuff that no one knows how to fix. JF-17 fighter is a dud, other aircrafts are prone to crashing, their aircraft carriers show cracks on the deck, submarines are loud and noisy, one of them crashed and killed the entire crew.
7. India's rise and its cozying up to the US block is enough to egg China into war. It is talk, talk, fight, fight with India.

// if there is another clash, Indian forces should go all out and take over Tibet. This is the only solution to deflate their bloated ego and solve the border intrusions into India. While we are at it, occupy the entire Kashmir area including Aksai Chin and Shaksgam valley.

williams · Post by **williams** » 07 Sep 2023 05:21

I think the Chinese know what will happen if they clash again. So they are going to keep talking for a long time. High-tech war in the Himalayas will be an expensive business for which China has no stomach. From our side, we need to keep building up our MIC and border infrastructure. It costs us quite a bit to keep troops there (100 crores a day, the last I heard), but it will be much more expensive if we need to plan a liberation campaign, not to mention the human cost. We need to wait it out until our own MIC is ready, in my opinion.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 07 Sep 2023 08:45

The issue is not what the PLA can achieve in the face of an alert Indian Army.

The real issue is the Lynch mob that Rahul Gandhi will try to lead against Modi. There are more than enough Congress members to be a part of that.

That will only serve to distract our attention.

SidSom · Post by **SidSom** » 07 Sep 2023 09:26

// if there is another clash, Indian forces should go all out and take over Tibet. This is the only solution to deflate their bloated ego and solve the border intrusions into India. While we are at it, occupy the entire Kashmir area including Aksai Chin and Shaksgam valley.

I find this idea a bit too extreme.

Even with the balance of power as it exists as on date, India has not gone all out to take over PoK let alone Tibet. I dont think any Indian leader (or for that matter ppl themselves) want to pay the cost of war for this. Truely there is no benefit to doing this and all we are going to achieve is a hell lot of damage to ourselves in the process. It is a lot better to spear head and propel America's financial war against Chine and to align our selves there.

As far as LoC is concerned, we can outspend Pak on firing and keeping the border hot. It must become too costly for them to handle and that is how we should be bleeding them by a thousand artillery shells.

For LAC, the things we need to do is to build a lot of infra in a lot of places. transgress bits and pieces constantly, keep poking the dragon and when they lash out be ready to smash at that time. It is not ideal to take the first big move. Strengthen MIC and really equip our forces. Large Kinetic war with China is not beneficial to us for sure.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 07 Sep 2023 09:54

I don't think that we have the logistics ability to take Tibet as of this moment.

The improvement in terms of road network should improve our ability to move fuel and ammunition in Tibet.

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 07 Sep 2023 15:12

SidSom wrote: ↑07 Sep 2023 09:26 ...
As far as LoC is concerned, we can outspend Pak on firing and keeping the border hot. It must become too costly for them to handle and that is how we should be bleeding them by a thousand artillery shells.
...

Unfortunately we haven't placed new large orders for artillery shells in a longish period (i think poster Deans had made a post to that effect) while the Paki OFBs have been working overtime churning shells (substandard they may be) for pakraine.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 07 Sep 2023 15:43

What would have happened if India had used IAF and bombed Chinese positions across LAC at Depsang, Pangong etc as a response to Galwan clash? Since we lost 20 soldiers and China lost none (!) we would have been simply exercising our right to self defence. I think the border dispute would have settled by now, and Xi would have been gone to some Chinese gulag and would be making Diwali crackers for export.

India will not miss the opportunity a second time if China or Pak give it an excuse on LAC or LOC.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 07 Sep 2023 18:57

Why India’s strategic depth is of little value—from Pakistan to China borders
https://theprint.in/opinion/why-indias- ... s/1745319/
04 Sept 2023

bala · Post by **bala** » 07 Sep 2023 19:56

After the 62 debacle of Neverwho, India has defended and thrashed the PLA's incursions for the past 6 decades. Nathu la, doklam, kailash range, depsang, galwan have handed PLA good lessons. IAF is now being stationed close to the border and the next incursion would be a sound thrashing of the PLA both by the army and IAF. India did not want to expand scope in all the previous forays by China, merely managed the conflict and contained them locally. There comes a stage when any such further incursions by PLA is handled much differently. India has options to open asymmetrical flanks and cut of the PLA forces. Another clash at say ladakh/aksai chin area can be responded to quickly and India can open a new front at Doklam or Nathu La and threaten Lhasa in short order. Or take out POK completely. The Indian military is strong and will do the job. All it requires is some chutzpah by the political tribe/MOD babus to give the signal and things will happen very quickly. China is no match, they will get whupped by the Indian armed forces.