Chinese Armed Forces: News & Discussion

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 22 Aug 2023 09:22

https://x.com/covertshores/status/16937 ... Tymk2TdEXQ —> ***UPDATE***

Reports that a Chinese Navy (PLAN) submarine, apparently a nuclear powered Type-093 Shang Class boat, has suffered a serious accident in the vicinity of the Taiwan Strait

This is currently *unconfirmed*, treat with great caution. Been hearing it for a few hours.

https://x.com/covertshores/status/16937 ... Tymk2TdEXQ —> Reports suggest all crew died. If so, RIP.

However, again, caution that currently no evidence. And some reporting is less credible. But important to listen for more

More info on this class of submarine: http://www.hisutton.com/Chinese-Navy-Ty ... arine.html

https://x.com/covertshores/status/16937 ... Tymk2TdEXQ —> Should add, one thing which makes me doubt some of the accounts is that they have too much information, like crew dying, type of boat etc.

However, that doesn't invalidate the underlying story. But waiting for more info, ideally credible sources (I may have missed some)

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 22 Aug 2023 09:25

Convert Shores is not prone to hyperbole. But he is known to have gotten his facts wrong. Especially about India.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 22 Aug 2023 09:31

https://x.com/congratent/status/1693769 ... Tymk2TdEXQ —> BREAKING – Chinese Media on the Submarine incident: cc @lookner

Type 09III attack nuclear-powered submarine (Long March 4XX) had an accident in the #YellowSea, At around 2:00 pm on August 21, 2023.

All officers in the submarine died, including 7 trainees.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 22 Aug 2023 09:46

This is the second such loss in the last 20 years.

The previous one was one of the SSKs with a lot of princlings.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 24 Aug 2023 20:23

China to build 21 nuclear submarines by 2030
https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-ne ... c4539c590e

Published on, August 19, 2023 - 7:51AM

Quoting an excerpt from the article

China is expected to have built 21 of its nuclear submarines and 200 major warships by 2030

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 04 Oct 2023 02:57

Fifty-five Chinese sailors are feared dead after their nuclear submarine 'got caught in a trap intended to ensnare British sub-surface vessels in the Yellow Sea'
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... w-Sea.html
03 Oct 2023

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 04 Oct 2023 14:50

A number of things don't make any sense about this recent news of a lost PLAN submarine.

1) It's strange that we don't see any scramble from any power to try and salvage this stricken submarine.

2) The submarine is caught in a trap ment for British submarines. Is it like a giant mouse trap, but for submarines.

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 04 Oct 2023 18:02

Pratyush wrote: ↑04 Oct 2023 14:50...

2) The submarine is caught in a trap ment for British submarines. Is it like a giant mouse trap, but for submarines.

No idea why they say it was for British submarines... unless they meant it was for older diesel electric subs operating in shallow waters (which US Nuclear subs avoid)

wig · Post by **wig** » 07 Oct 2023 13:29

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/ch ... 59d5&ei=18

china Believes UK Spies Tracked Submarine With The Help Of An Apple Watch

extracted

China believes that UK spies its submarine by bugging a sailor's Apple smart-watch, The DailyMail reported citing Chinese dissidents. We cannot verify the report.

As many as 55 Chinese soldiers died when a nuclear-powered submarine - the Type 093 - sunk after being caught up in a trap intended for American and British vessels, UK-based The Times has reported citing leaked British intelligence reports. According to the report, the incident took place in the Yellow Sea. Beijing has denied the loss of the vessel and so has Taiwan.

British intelligence identified the vessel as a PLA Navy submarine 093-417 and added that it suffered catastrophic failure that poisoned the crew on August 21.

source

"We got an update from the Central Military Commission. In the classified report, the CCP [Chinese Communist Party] believes MI6 bugged the Apple watch of a high ranking Navy officer in Guang Dong command and caused the leak of the 093-417 accident."

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 07 Oct 2023 13:56

^ the headline says 'tracked' while report supposedly says 'caused the leak' ?

Also would GPS signals be available under hundreds of feet of water out at sea? Do Chinese Apple watches use GPS or their own BeiDou sat nav system?

added: China banned goverment officials from using Apple products around late August early September

drnayar · Post by **drnayar** » 07 Oct 2023 14:19

Manish_P wrote: ↑07 Oct 2023 13:56 ^ the headline says 'tracked' while report supposedly says 'caused the leak' ?

Also would GPS signals be available under hundreds of feet of water out at sea? Do Chinese Apple watches use GPS or their own BeiDou sat nav system?

added: China banned goverment officials from using Apple products around late August early September

You wouldn't need to track it live once the sub leaves the base. Lessons for Indian armed forces in weeding out Chinese built electronics .

hgupta · Post by **hgupta** » 08 Oct 2023 01:56

And weeding out western spying buys too.

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 08 Oct 2023 11:28

drnayar wrote: ↑07 Oct 2023 14:19
Manish_P wrote: ↑07 Oct 2023 13:56 ^ the headline says 'tracked' while report supposedly says 'caused the leak' ?

Also would GPS signals be available under hundreds of feet of water out at sea? Do Chinese Apple watches use GPS or their own BeiDou sat nav system?

added: China banned goverment officials from using Apple products around late August early September
You wouldn't need to track it live once the sub leaves the base....

Exactly, so why would you need to track it when it is at it's base?

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 15 Oct 2023 05:25

Debunking the Myths Surrounding China’s J-20 Fighter Jet
https://www.defencenews.in/2023/10/debu ... ghter-jet/
14 Oct 2023

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 21 Oct 2023 18:58

ricky_v · Post by **ricky_v** » 27 Oct 2023 18:55

an exhaustive dod study on military and security development in prc, posting only some

https://media.defense.gov/2023/Oct/19/2 ... -CHINA.PDF

CHINA’S MILITARY LEADERSHIP
As the military’s highest decision-making body, the CMC is technically also a department of the
CCP Central Committee. The CMC Chairman is a civilian, usually serving concurrently as the
General Secretary of the CCP and President of the PRC. CMC members are appointed at Party
Congresses every five years. In the fall of 2022 at the 20th Party Congress, General Zhang Youxia
ascended to the first Vice Chairman position, joined by General He Weidong as the second Vice
Chairman. Other CMC members include General Li Shangfu, General Liu Zhenli, and returning
members Admiral Miao Hua and General Zhang Shengmin. In 2022, the CMC consisted of two
vice chairs, the Minister of National Defense, the chiefs of the Joint Staff and Political Work
Departments, and the head of the Discipline Inspection Commission.
Chairman Xi Jinping concurrently serves as the CCP General Secretary, CMC Chairman, and
President of the PRC. Xi was first appointed as Party General Secretary and CMC Chairman in
2012 and as President in the spring of 2013. Xi was reappointed to all of his positions for an
unprecedented third term at 2022’s 20th Party Congress and the 2023 National People’s Congress.

In 2016, Xi was announced as the commander-in-chief of the CMC’s Joint Operations Command
Center (JOCC) and was named “core” leader of the CCP Central Committee. Prior to becoming
CMC Chairman, Xi served as the CMC’s only civilian Vice Chairman under Hu Jintao. Xi’s father
was an important military figure during China’s communist revolution and was a Politburo
member in the 1980s. Xi also served as an aide to a defense minister early in his career and had
regular interactions with the PLA as a provincial Party official.
Vice Chairman General Zhang Youxia is China’s top uniformed official and former junior vice
chairman. Zhang was first appointed to the CMC in 2012 as the head of the General Armaments
Department – now the Equipment Development Department (EDD) – where he oversaw the PLA’s
manned space program, as well as MCF and military modernization efforts. Zhang gained rare
experience as a combat commander during China’s brief war with Vietnam in 1979. Zhang
formerly commanded the Shenyang Military Region, which shares a border with North Korea and
Russia. Zhang is one of the PLA’s “princelings.” His father, a well-known military figure in China,
served with Xi’s father at the close of Chinese Civil War in 1949. Zhang, at age 72 in 2022, was
expected to retire due to previously followed age norms within the PLA. However, Zhang’s
retention on the CMC for a third term probably reflects Xi’s desire to keep a close and experienced
ally as his top military advisor.
Vice Chairman General He Weidong is China’s second-most senior officer and a former
commander of the PLA’s Eastern Theater. His ascent to a vice chairman position absent prior
CMC membership is unusual and probably a testament to his extensive operational experience
focused on Taiwan. Before his selection as vice chairman, He served a brief stint in the CMC
JOCC where he played a key role in planning live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait as part of the PLA
response to the then-U.S. House Speaker Pelosi’s August 2022 visit to Taipei. He may have close
ties to Xi due to their overlapping service in Fujian and Zhejiang provinces in the late 1990s and
early 2000s.
Minister of National Defense General Li Shangfu was appointed to the CMC at the 20th Party
Congress in October 2022, and as the Minister of National Defense at the NPC in March 2023. Li
is the PLA’s third-most senior officer and manages its relationship with state bureaucracies and
foreign militaries. Unlike the U.S. Secretary of Defense, he is not part of the chain of command
and his primary policy influence is derived from membership on the CMC and State Council,
where he serves as a direct liaison for civil-military integration, defense mobilization, and
budgeting. Li previously headed the EDD where he managed the PLA’s weapons development
and acquisition efforts and China’s manned space program. In 2018, Li was sanctioned by the
United States for his role as EDD director overseeing the purchase of Russian fighter jets and
surface-to-air missile systems.
Joint Staff Department Chief General Liu Zhenli oversees PLA joint operations, a narrowing
of the wider responsibilities held by the former General Staff Department prior to reforms initiated
in 2015. Liu is one of few remaining active-duty PLA officers with combat experience and is
recognized as a combat hero for his service in China’s border war with Vietnam. Like his
predecessor Li Zuocheng, Liu rose through the ranks of the PLA Army HQ, assuming command
of the service in 2021. Beginning in 2015 as Army chief of staff, Liu guided the service through a
major period of reform which saw the ground force downgraded to an equal standing with the
other branches. Liu, at age 58 in 2022, is the youngest CMC member and is eligible to remain on
the CMC for at least an additional term.
Political Work Department Director Admiral Miao Hua oversees the PLA’s political work,
including propaganda, organization, and education. Miao is a former Army officer who switched
services to the Navy in December 2014 when he became political commissar of the PLAN. Miao
may have ties to Xi from his time serving in the 31st Group Army in Fujian Province, when his
career overlapped with Xi’s. Miao participated as the PLAN political commissar during the Navy’s
BRIcruise conducted in mid-2017. Miao Hua, at age 66 in 2022, remained on the CMC in his
current position following the 20th Party Congress.
Secretary of the Discipline Inspection Commission General Zhang Shengmin oversees the
highest-level organization responsible for investigating military violations of Party discipline,
including corrupt practices. Zhang is also a deputy secretary and third-ranking member on the
standing committee of the Party’s Discipline Inspection Commission. Zhang’s reappointment
reflects the Party’s continued commitment to the anticorruption campaign within the military.
Zhang, at age 65 in 2022, remained on the CMC in his current position following the 20th Party
Congress.

Launch on Warning (LOW). The PLA is implementing a LOW posture, called “early warning
counterstrike” (预警反击), where warning of a missile strike leads to a counterstrike before an
enemy first strike can detonate. PLA writings suggest multiple manned C2 organs are involved in
this process, warned by space and ground based sensors, and that this posture is broadly similar to
the U.S. and Russian LOW posture. The PRC probably seeks to keep at least a portion of its force,
especially its new silo-based units, on a LOW posture, and since 2017, the PLARF has conducted
exercises involving early warning of a nuclear strike and LOW responses.

WESTERN THEATER COMMAND
Key Takeaways
● The Western Theater Command is oriented toward India and counterterrorism missions along
China’s Central Asia borders.
● The Western Theater Command focuses on Xinjiang and Tibet Autonomous Regions, where
the CCP perceives a high threat of separatism and terrorism, particularly among Uyghur
populations in Xinjiang.
● Since early May 2020, sustained tensions along the India-China border have dominated the
Western Theater Command’s attention, including at least one border clash in December 2022
along the PRC border with India’s Arunachal Pradesh state that injured multiple soldiers.
The Western Theater Command is geographically the largest theater command within the PRC
and is responsible for responding to conflict with India and what the PRC refers to as “terrorist
threats” in western China. PLA units located within the Western Theater Command include 76th
and 77th Group Armies and ground forces subordinate to Xinjiang and Xizang Military Districts;
three PLAAF bases, one transportation division, one flying academy, and one PLARF base.
Within China, the Western Theater Command focuses on Xinjiang and Tibet Autonomous
Regions, where the CCP perceives a high threat of separatism and terrorism, particularly among
Uyghur populations in Xinjiang. According to the U.S. Department of State’s 2022 Country
Reports on Human Rights Practices, in the PRC, “genocide and crimes against humanity occurred
during the year against the predominantly Muslim Uyghurs and other ethnic and religious minority
groups in Xinjiang.” Authorities were reported to have arbitrarily detained more than one million
ethnic Uyghurs, Kazakhs, Kyrgyz, and other Muslims in extrajudicial internment camps designed
to erase religious and ethnic identities. Although PRC government officials justified the camps
under the pretense of “combatting terrorism, separatism, and extremism,” information from the
international community, including the UN, refute such justifications. Moreover, oppression of
Muslim Uyghurs and other ethnic and religious minority groups in Xinjiang is likely used by
extremist organizations as a propaganda and recruiting tool, generating new threats to the region.
Since early May 2020, sustained tensions along the India-China border have dominated the
Western Theater Command’s attention. Differing perceptions between India and the PRC

regarding border demarcations along the LAC, combined with recent infrastructure construction
on both sides, led to multiple clashes, an ongoing standoff, and military buildups along the shared
border. In response to a skirmish in June 2020 between PRC and Indian patrols in Galwan Valley,
the most violent clash between the two countries in 45 years, the Western Theater Command
implemented a large-scale mobilization and deployment of PLA forces along the LAC.
Commander-level negotiations meant to reduce tensions continued in December 2022 with the 17th
round of talks. The Western Theater Command’s deployments along the LAC will likely continue
through 2023.
2022 Western Theater Command Leadership
Commander– General Wang Haijiang [汪海江]
Previous position: Commander, Xinjiang Military District
DOB: July 1963
Age: 59
Birthplace: Anyue County, Ziyang, Sichuan Province
Education: Unknown
Political Commissar– General Li Fengbiao [李凤彪]
Previous position: Commander, Strategic Support Force
DOB: October 1959
Age: 63
Birthplace: Anxin County, Baoding, Hebei Province
Education: Xinyang Army Infantry School; received a Master’s degree in strategic studies from
National Defense University
Chief of Staff– Major General Li Zhonglin [李中林]
Previous position: Commander, 71st Group Army, Eastern Theater Command Army
DOB: Unknown
Age: Unknown
Birthplace: Unknown
Education: Unknown

SPECIAL TOPIC: PLA SELF-ASSESSMENTS
The PLA highlights some self-assessed shortcomings publicly, likely to guide and accelerate forcewide modernization efforts. The PLA routinely use set slogans or phrases to describe these selfassessments to exhort the force to carry out specific campaigns. These evaluations also likely
represent genuine anxieties among PRC leaders about the PLA’s readiness and ability to conduct
joint operations if tested under real combat conditions. The five PLA slogans are described on the
next page.
● Leadership and Command. The PLA has regularly identified concerns about the quality and
ability of its commanders and officers. Numerous PLA slogans have addressed this issue most
pointedly expressing concern that its forces will be unable to seize the operational initiative at
the level necessary for modern warfare, with previous annual training mobilization orders
explicitly referencing the “Five Incapables” and “Two Inabilities.”
● Lack of Combat Experience. The PLA’s self-assessments often express insecurities about
the fact that the military has not fought a war since 1979, with common references to the “peace
disease” or “peacetime practices”. For the PLA, the “peace disease” presents itself as both a
lack readiness within the force and a lackadaisical attitude towards training and preparing for
potential conflict.
● Exercise and Training Realism. For decades, the PLA has identified poor and unrealistic
training as a key problem for military modernization. . The PLA has focused on both
“formalism” and “bureaucratism” as the leading causes of substandard training. This means
that training is stilted and formal rather than being appropriate for dynamic and unpredictable
real-world conditions.
● Professional Military Education. The PLA has identified a lack of officers with knowledge
of joint combat operations and is working to implement a true joint culture throughout the
force. To rectify the gap in military education on joint warfighting, theater command
headquarters have attempted to set up educational programs at headquarters to build joint
proficiency. Additionally, the PRC’s NDU launched the PLA’s first training course for officers
to receive joint post qualifications upon graduation.
● Fighting and winning modern wars. The PLA has utilized the slogan the “Two Big Gaps”
to underline enduring concerns about its true capability for warfighting despite the long
modernization effort. It also is an acknowledgement that the PLA feels itself to be behind the
world’s most capable militaries and that they have not yet achieved that standard.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 29 Oct 2023 04:35

drnayar · Post by **drnayar** » 05 Nov 2023 14:39

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 07 Nov 2023 02:34

YT Short

Full interview

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 16 Nov 2023 20:28

Exclusive: Chinese Submarine, Warships In Karachi - What It Means For India
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/exclusi ... ia-4569723
13 Nov 2023

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 22 Nov 2023 00:57

VIDEO: https://x.com/OsintTV/status/1727017342264049687?s=20 ---> According to unverified Chinese social media report there is massive fire on Chinese navy's most advanced 980 hull number Type 071 landing ship (Longhushan). According to social media report the ship has just completed sea trials, it has not yet officially entered the navy, it can still be considered China's most advanced landing ship, and its comprehensive performance ranks among the best ships in the world. Some report suggests that military fire drill conducted on the ship. No details provided on the location and other information.

https://x.com/OsintTV/status/1727018337635569882?s=20 ---> Comparison of the Chinese navy's Hull number 980 ship with fire reported ship.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 06 Dec 2023 22:33

China’s Xi goes full Stalin with purge
https://www.politico.eu/article/chinas- ... i-shangfu/
06 Dec 2023

In a sign of instability in Beijing’s top ranks, foreign policy and defense officials are vanishing as Xi roots out perceived enemies.

drnayar · Post by **drnayar** » 06 Dec 2023 22:36

Rakesh wrote: ↑06 Dec 2023 22:33 China’s Xi goes full Stalin with purge
https://www.politico.eu/article/chinas- ... i-shangfu/
06 Dec 2023

In a sign of instability in Beijing’s top ranks, foreign policy and defense officials are vanishing as Xi roots out perceived enemies.

Wonder if he feels the need for patriotism! A Himalayan adventure could give him a bloody nose [esp with India under Modi] but the low lying Taiwan might be tempting.

tandav · Post by **tandav** » 08 Dec 2023 06:13

https://www-firstpost-com.cdn.ampprojec ... 2.html/amp

China claims compact high power microwave jammer capable of drone fit out.

The weapon’s core component is a device called the travelling wave tube, a vacuum where electrons generate microwave power. While this technology has traditionally been used as a microwave generator, Chinese scientists have repurposed it into a supersensitive antenna, eliminating the need for a separate radar on the drone.

drnayar · Post by **drnayar** » 13 Dec 2023 00:53

How China cloned the C-17 Globemaster to make Xian Y-20, heavy transport plane.

How they cloned the F-22 and the F-35.

bala · Post by **bala** » 14 Dec 2023 02:32

An analysis of PLA's Rocket force by Lt. Gen P Ravi Shankar

They have the following inventory:
System Launchers Missiles Range
ICBM 500 350 >5500KM
IRBM 250 500 3K-5.5K KM
MRB 300 1000 1K-4K KM
SRBM 200 1000 300-1K km
GLCM 150 300 > 1.5K KM // ground launched cruise missiles

around 3K rockets.
Tactical rockets around 3K
6K rockets in general. actuals may vary and no one knows for sure.

The above does not take into account of what the PLA airforce and navy have.
The Chinese have 6 bases with conventional rockets plus 1 base contains nuclear weapons exclusively.
Each missile base has 6-7 brigades.

More details in this YT..

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 14 Dec 2023 21:45

Like right out of a spy novel or a movie script!

Taiwanese Pilot Planned CH-47 Defection To China: Reports
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/t ... na-reports
11 Dec 2023

As part of the plot, the pilot was also allegedly offered safe passage for his family to Thailand should a Chinese invasion of Taiwan occur.

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 14 Dec 2023 21:50

Rakesh wrote: ↑14 Dec 2023 21:45 Like right out of a spy novel or a movie script!

Taiwanese Pilot Planned CH-47 Defection To China: Reports
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/t ... na-reports
11 Dec 2023

There Chinese could hack plans for the ultra secret and uber F-22 and F-35, but not a 50 year old platform?

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 15 Dec 2023 20:06

China Warns of Geographic Info Data Breaches, Affecting Transport, Military
https://www.usnews.com/news/technology/ ... t-military
13 Dec 2023

https://x.com/InsightGL/status/1735168506206056636?s=20 ---->

- Xi Jinping humiliated PLA on backfoot.
- Huge cybersecurity breach in China.
- Unknown entity steals high-precision geographic information data, 3-dim geomorphological mapping in transportation, energy, military & other important fields data using backdoor.
- PLA acknowledges breach.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 02 Jan 2024 19:13

The argument in BRF on how aircraft carriers are far more superior to submarines has just been destroyed in the article below. This discussion was happening when the Indian Navy's proposed INS Vishal supercarrier was in play. 65,000 tons, nuclear power with EMALS and F-18SHs to influence events from Alaska all the way to the South China Sea. Will speak any bokwas to peddle Amreeki maal

Paper Dragon: The overstated threat of Xi’s Navy
https://www.news9live.com/world/paper-d ... vy-2392977
01 Jan 2024

These tweets below are from Vice Admiral Arun Kumar Singh (retd) - a veteran Indian Navy submariner - in response to the article above.

https://x.com/subnut/status/1742032728739242242?s=20 ---> Interesting article. IMO, most PLAN units at sea (including its CVs, LPDs, LHDs) are likely to be destroyed by USN-JMSDF's SSNs and SSKs within 96 hours* of war breaking out. Hopefully GoI and IN put the long delayed indigenous SSN project on the front burner.
*96 hours is 4 days!

https://x.com/subnut/status/1742037064839987224?s=20 ---> Warships and naval aviation play an essential role in keeping SLOCs open, as can be seen by response of IN (operating independently), USN, etc in the Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden, Red Sea. PLAN units appear to have become dormant bystanders during the ongoing crisis in the Red Sea.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 02 Jan 2024 20:08

Rakesh wrote: ↑02 Jan 2024 19:13Paper Dragon: The overstated threat of Xi’s Navy
https://www.news9live.com/world/paper-d ... vy-2392977
01 Jan 2024

https://x.com/SandeepUnnithan/status/17 ... 22535?s=20 ---> What stands between Xi Jinping and his dream reunification of Taiwan - an undefeatable navy with the most potent underwater force in history.

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 02 Jan 2024 21:06

Rakesh wrote: ↑02 Jan 2024 19:13 The argument in BRF on how aircraft carriers are far more superior to submarines has just been destroyed in the article below...

I might be wrong Admiral ji, but I thought the argument was not about the absolute superiority of one platform over the other but one of prioritization. With a very limited budget, what do we go for first, then second, and so on ...

Rakesh wrote: ↑02 Jan 2024 19:13 Paper Dragon: The overstated threat of Xi’s Navy[/b]

These tweets below are from Vice Admiral Arun Kumar Singh (retd) - a veteran Indian Navy submariner - in response to the article above.

https://x.com/subnut/status/1742032728739242242?s=20 ---> Interesting article. IMO, most PLAN units at sea (including its CVs, LPDs, LHDs) are likely to be destroyed by USN-JMSDF's SSNs and SSKs within 96 hours* of war breaking out.
*96 hours is 4 days!
..

And what with the SoKos involved, 72 hrs. Better add the Aussies and make it 48 hrs? Maybe that's why they wanted to add India - make it a nice 24 hrs job.

The US/NATO combine was expected to roll over Russia in about a month wasn't it?

I guess they are taking the saying quite literally - 'No plan survives contact with the enemy'

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 02 Jan 2024 21:35

Manish_P wrote: ↑02 Jan 2024 21:06
Rakesh wrote: ↑02 Jan 2024 19:13 The argument in BRF on how aircraft carriers are far more superior to submarines has just been destroyed in the article below...
I might be wrong Admiral ji, but I thought the argument was not about the absolute superiority of one platform over the other but one of prioritization. With a very limited budget, what do we go for first, then second, and so on ...

Saar, you are referring to the Navy talking point and they are correct, obviously. Every platform - aircraft carrier, submarine or whatever else - has superiority in its domain. Budgets play a big role here and that comes from priorities.

What I am referring to is the CATOBAR crowd on BRF who kept on pushing for the 65K aircraft carrier (INS Vishal), because that is when the F-18SH would have been a perfect shoe-in for the vessel. Now they could not openly peddle the F-18SH, so they went a round about way of touting the superiority of a CATOBAR aircraft carrier over every other platform. Ashley Tellis did the exact same thing.

After their much hated US ally (La France - India's philanthropic friend!) won the MRCBF contest, now the CATOBAR crowd on BRF has gone silent. Now no more gyan on CATOBAR aircraft carriers.

Rakesh wrote: ↑02 Jan 2024 19:13And what with the SoKos involved, 72 hrs. Better add the Aussies and make it 48 hrs? Maybe that's why they wanted to add India - make it a nice 24 hrs job.

The US/NATO combine was expected to roll over Russia in about a month wasn't it?

I guess they are taking the saying quite literally - 'No plan survives contact with the enemy'

Apples and Oranges Saar

What is happening with US/NATO support for Ukraine will not be the same in a naval battle between the China and the US. In an all out naval battle, the US Navy will decimate the PLAN. The asymmetry between the two navies' capability is glaringly huge. And it is not about the number of ships that the PLAN keeps churning out like pancakes each year, but how capable are they really. Even the PLAN themselves admit that the greatest danger to their surface fleet is from the Japanese Navy's SSK fleet and the US Navy's SSN fleet. How do you fight something you cannot see?

The PLAN's ASW capability is sorely lacking. Each time the PLAN makes a measurable advancement, their opponent already has their next ace up their sleeve. They are trying to play catch up with an opponent that has mastered this game decades ago.

Where Taiwan should be worried is whether the US Govt will actually follow through on its commitment to defend the island nation of Taiwan. That is a whole other discussion and is geopolitical in nature. But on a technical capability, the PLAN is nowhere close to the US Navy and this is in China's own backyard i.e. the South China Sea.

If the PLAN was really as capable as their propaganda is claiming to be, they would have invaded Taiwan like yesterday. They are biding time to build up their capability to a point, where they believe that despite enemy superiority...they will still prevail.

Think about this Saar ---> if China had to endure/accept the public losses of men & material that Russia has in the Ukraine conflict, how much longer would the ChiComs continue their hold on power in Beijing? Despite all the setbacks that Russia has encountered, Putin is still supreme in Russia. Can anyone honestly say the same about Xi Pooh Bear?

hgupta · Post by **hgupta** » 02 Jan 2024 22:53

Rakesh, like it or not CATOBAR allows your plane to be used to its maximum payload capacity as opposed to using only half of payload capacity and limited fuel. Furthermore, it allows you to launch even more heavier planes such as AEW&C and aerial refueling tankers. And that is something that IN wants.

After their experience with the STOBAR, their appetite is only whetted for more. They quickly realized that STOBAR is too far, too short, i.e., tantalizing but not quite there. To get there, CATOBAR is the order of the day.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 02 Jan 2024 23:02

hgupta wrote: ↑02 Jan 2024 22:53 Rakesh, like it or not CATOBAR allows your plane to be used to its maximum payload capacity as opposed to using only half of payload capacity and limited fuel. Furthermore, it allows you to launch even more heavier planes such as AEW&C and aerial refueling tankers. And that is something that IN wants.

After their experience with the STOBAR, their appetite is only whetted for more. They quickly realized that STOBAR is too far, too short, i.e., tantalizing but not quite there. To get there, CATOBAR is the order of the day.

I am not against CATOBAR

I am aware of all the advantages of a CATOBAR. That was not the point I was trying to make. CATOBAR opens the door for the F-18SH, which Boeing was desperately trying to peddle onto the Indian Navy. That plan got ruined by the Rafale M and the upcoming TEDBF.

Please read what Sandeep Unnithan has written in his article. Please also read what Vice Admiral AK Singh (retd) has stated in his response to Sandeep's article. The PLAN - in her current avatar and planned growth capability - will not prevail over the US Navy, especially with her submarine fleet. No aircraft carrier of theirs is going to win against the US Navy.

hgupta · Post by **hgupta** » 02 Jan 2024 23:05

Rakesh wrote: ↑02 Jan 2024 23:02
hgupta wrote: ↑02 Jan 2024 22:53 Rakesh, like it or not CATOBAR allows your plane to be used to its maximum payload capacity as opposed to using only half of payload capacity and limited fuel. Furthermore, it allows you to launch even more heavier planes such as AEW&C and aerial refueling tankers. And that is something that IN wants.

After their experience with the STOBAR, their appetite is only whetted for more. They quickly realized that STOBAR is too far, too short, i.e., tantalizing but not quite there. To get there, CATOBAR is the order of the day.
I am not against CATOBAR I am aware of all the advantages of a CATOBAR. That was not the point I was trying to make. CATOBAR opens the door for the F-18SH, which Boeing was desperately trying to peddle onto the Indian Navy. That plan got ruined by the Rafale M and the upcoming TEDBF.

Please read what Sandeep Unnithan has written in his article. Please also read what Vice Admiral AK Singh (retd) has also stated in his response to Sandeep's article. The PLAN - in her current avatar and planned growth - will not prevail over the US Navy, especially with her submarine fleet. No aircraft carrier of theirs is going to win against the US Navy.

Yes but what makes you think that the USN is going to screen and fight the PLAN for India? After all, US pretty much gave the fvck you finger when it came to India's security concerns wrt Pannu and etc.

They can very well sit by and let the PLAN go through unmolested.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 02 Jan 2024 23:15

hgupta wrote: ↑02 Jan 2024 23:05 Yes but what makes you think that the USN is going to screen and fight the PLAN for India? After all, US pretty much gave the fvck you finger when it came to India's security concerns wrt Pannu and etc.

They can very well sit by and let the PLAN go through unmolested.

Did you even read the article?

The author is talking about the PLAN's invasion of Taiwan and not India. The retired Vice Admiral is also talking about Taiwan, not India.

At no point in the article, is the author even suggesting that the US Navy is going to screen and fight the PLAN for India. Where are you getting this from?

What you have stated above has no relation to China's invasion of Taiwan.

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 02 Jan 2024 23:59

Rakesh wrote: ↑02 Jan 2024 21:35 Saar, you are referring to the Navy talking point and they are correct, obviously. Every platform - aircraft carrier, submarine or whatever else - has superiority in its domain. Budgets play a big role here and that comes from priorities.

What I am referring to is the CATOBAR crowd on BRF who kept on pushing for the 65K aircraft carrier (INS Vishal), because that is when the F-18SH would have been a perfect shoe-in for the vessel....

Oh that thing. OK.

Rakesh wrote: ↑02 Jan 2024 19:13
What is happening with US/NATO support for Ukraine will not be the same in a naval battle between the China and the US. In an all out naval battle, the US Navy will decimate the PLAN....

They probably might. But probably not in 96 hrs as it's glibly made out to be.

...
But on a technical capability, the PLAN is nowhere close to the US Navy and this is in China's own backyard i.e. the South China Sea.

If the PLAN was really as capable as their propaganda is claiming to be, they would have invaded Taiwan like yesterday...

Qualitatively yes, but quantitatively, logistically not that much. Else if the US superiority was as overwhelming as being advertised then they wouldn't be bothering with trying to stitch up things like QUAD1 and QUAD+ would they..

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 03 Jan 2024 00:19

Manish_P wrote: ↑02 Jan 2024 23:59 They probably might. But probably not in 96 hrs as it's glibly made out to be.

If that claim was from some twitter/jingo fan boy, it can be safely ignored.

But coming from the former Flag Officer Submarines, I would not completely discount it.

Both sides would want a quick war, if it ever came down to that. Dragging it on for months on end is not feasible for either party.

Manish_P wrote: ↑02 Jan 2024 23:59Qualitatively yes, but quantitatively, logistically not that much. Else if the US superiority was as overwhelming as being advertised then they wouldn't be bothering with trying to stitch up things like QUAD1 and QUAD+ would they..

Qualitatively and even logistically, the US Navy is leaps and bounds ahead of the PLAN. Nobody can move men and material, like how the Khan does. You have to give credit, where credit is due. In the air, sea, space and logistical domains, the US is the clear leader in the field. Land domain is a whole other ballgame, as GW1, GW2 and Afghanistan have amply proven. Senior Bush (George HW) was wise when he decided to not pursue the Iraqi army - into Iraq - after their defeat in Kuwait in GW1. That same wisdom was lost on his son (GW). Nation building has always ended up in disaster for US forces.

Quad works towards the US strategy of encircling China in the naval domain. The other two Quad members - Australia and Japan - are firmly in the American camp i.e. operating US origin maal. This strategy helps to sustain the American MIC, which is crucial for US global superiority. The only outlier in the Quad is India and that is because India wants to keep it that way.