Chinese Armed Forces: News & Discussion

[Manish_P]

Do we have plans to have such a highly automated factory for mass production of artillery shells at least?

We could export them across the world, even maybe to the US and Russia both

And we could have regular quality testing across our Western border

[Pratyush]

And what kind of cruise missiles are available for $2 million a pop? Let's not kid ourselves with these propaganda. Chinese propaganda has indeed worked.

Tomohawk is around 2 million a pop.

JSSM 700 K.

The PRC equivalent will not be that much more expensive.

[Rakesh]

Lets say this is propaganda but the mindset behind even this propaganda is worthy. Lets say they just do 5% of their propaganda (20 missiles a day )- even that is scary for us. I would just like to believe that we are ready for this kind of war.

1) Scary? First of all, stop dhoti shivering.

2) Secondly, in terms of sheer numbers...India is NOT ready for this kind of war and neither should we be.

India will go bankrupt trying to match the Chinese. Let says we induct 220 Tejas Mk1As and 200 Tejas Mk2s. The Chinese will turn around and churn out 600 J-10Cs and 200 J-20s. How many more Tejas (or anything else) are you going to induct to match that? Let's say - for arguments sake - we do counter that, the Chinese will counter that again with an even bigger acquisition. We are not winning the numbers game and it will lead to financial ruin.

The Chinese can play the numbers game very easily, because they are a communist nation with zero accountability to her people, her budget or anything else. We cannot mimic that in India.

The goal is Minimum Deterrence i.e. have a "survivable" stockpile enough to force the Chinese to the negotiating table. The last thing India needs to get into is a war of attrition, because there is no path to victory there. Both countries are global economies and you cannot shut the nation down and go to war for 2+ years, as we are seeing in Ukraine. That is another path to financial bankruptcy. Quick and Painful is the game for both sides.

But even prior to any conflict, minimum deterrence should give the Chinese a moment of pause i.e. How much pain am I willing to absorb to teach the evil Yindoos a lesson? Sadly, we are not even stockpiling or investing enough for Minimum Deterrence and that needs to be addressed.

[Manish_P]

...
1) Scary? First of all, stop dhoti shivering.
...

Admiral sir, doesn't seem like 'dhoti-shivering' per se on part of the posters. Some clearly mention about factoring in the propaganda multiplier parameter. A continually updated honest assessment about what we are facing and how to counter it is in our interest.

..
The goal is Minimum Deterrence i.e. have a "survivable" stockpile enough to force the Chinese to the negotiating table. ...

Minimum deterrence stockpile will obviously not be static. It directly co-relates to what your opponents are able to bring to bear (both offensive and defensive).

On a tangent but IMVHO this habit of relying on 'minimum deterrence' and relying (hoping) on our Government to bring the opponents to the negotiating table seems to have tied down the thinking of our top brass. This effect seems to be directly visible in our fragmented and disjointed procurement process.

...
Sadly, we are not even stockpiling or investing enough for Minimum Deterrence and that needs to be addressed.

That exactly, seems to be the point the posters are making (IMHO of course).

[Rakesh]

Admiral sir, doesn't seem like 'dhoti-shivering' per se on part of the posters. Some clearly mention about factoring in the propaganda multiplier parameter. A continually updated honest assessment about what we are facing and how to counter it is in our interest.

Saar, I was referring to the term 'scary' used by YashG. That is why I said not to dhoti shiver.

Even if you take the missile production number at face value, we still are not in any position to counter it missile for missile. This is what happened to the Soviet Union in the Cold War. The Russians just could no longer afford to sustain the expenditure.

Minimum deterrence stockpile will obviously not be static. It directly co-relates to what your opponents are able to bring to bear (both offensive and defensive).

Indeed. But if we are hoping to match what the Chinese have in terms of numbers, then that will not work.

So there has to be a balance between what is required and what the budget can realistically afford. China does not to deal with that problem, publicly. What Xi Wants, Xi Will Get. If a few hundred (or more) of his citizens have to die for it, he could care less. You cannot do that in India.

So minimum deterrence will always fluctuate, but it will correlate into what the Indian military states is needed/required to sustain that level of deterrence. A parity match however, will ruin the financial stability of the country.

On a tangent but IMVHO this habit of relying on 'minimum deterrence' and relying (hoping) on our Government to bring the opponents to the negotiating table seems to have tied down the thinking of our top brass. This effect seems to be directly visible in our fragmented and disjointed procurement process.

It is precisely because we have not met the minimum deterrence force capability, we are in the disjointed mess.

Focus on that first. An old, but good read ---> https://thediplomat.com/2021/11/indias- ... ket-force/

That exactly, seems to be the point the posters are making (IMHO of course).

Saar, we have posters (in other threads) talking about a 200 squadron strength for the IAF, when we are struggling to hit 42.

First hit the minimum conventional deterrence --> Get your 42 squadron strength, your 30 SSKs, your 6 SSNs, your 3 carrier battle groups, etc. Then fantasize about 200 squadrons, 8 aircraft carriers, 1,000+ surface fleet, 100 submarines, etc.

[Manish_P]

...But if we are hoping to match what the Chinese have in terms of numbers, then that will not work...

I agree. I didn't say that.

...
So there has to be a balance between what is required and what the budget can realistically afford...

We have grown over the past few decades, our opponents have grown as well. Has our defence budget grown in proportion? Then add to that our currency devaluation vis a vis the USD (the universal currency of arms trade). Can the current budget allocation meet the minimum deterrence requirements?

[YashG]

Admiral sir, doesn't seem like 'dhoti-shivering' per se on part of the posters. Some clearly mention about factoring in the propaganda multiplier parameter. A continually updated honest assessment about what we are facing and how to counter it is in our interest.

Saar, I was referring to the term 'scary' used by YashG. That is why I said not to dhoti shiver.

Admiral there is a thin line between dhoti-shiver and to be concerned about the preparations of our adversary. You want your country also to prepare well.

Regarding matching number for number to China- what Ukraine war has shown is that beyond a point your industrial capacity becomes the winning factor. So it is fine that cheen produces 300K and we only 30K (that is also a 10X difference) but during war you capacity should be able to go up by 10X. We need to put in that capacity in place. We need to get out of mindset of buying double digit gold plated western bloatware and instead buy but also setup 10X scalable production lines of khurdura desi maal.

[srai]

^^^

For too long, everyone looking at US led domination of “weak” opponents bought into the concept of “short” war. (Unless they got stuck in half hearted nation building projects and the ensuing long running low conflict insurgency.)

However, when the playing field is on more equal terms then the war is more indefinite. Whoever can strategically move all national/international efforts to sustain the war will eventually exhaust their opponent into some form of submission.

If war were to occur between India and China, it will end up as a long running one with world leadership at stake. India must maintain a credible domestic MIC to be able to do so. Too often, we see continual “emergency” imports with inflated prices. That is not a good sign of a healthy MIC which meets the needs of the military during wartime.

[Rakesh]

Admiral there is a thin line between dhoti-shiver and to be concerned about the preparations of our adversary. You want your country also to prepare well.

Regarding matching number for number to China- what Ukraine war has shown is that beyond a point your industrial capacity becomes the winning factor. So it is fine that cheen produces 300K and we only 30K (that is also a 10X difference) but during war you capacity should be able to go up by 10X. We need to put in that capacity in place. We need to get out of mindset of buying double digit gold plated western bloatware and instead buy but also setup 10X scalable production lines of khurdura desi maal.

Lets say we cancel gold plated western bloatware and go all in on Tejas. So 27 squadrons of Tejas in multiple variants ---> Mk1, Mk1A, Mk2, etc. At an average of 20 aircraft per squadron, we are looking at 540 aircraft. Add another 272 Su-30MKIs, which at present is 13 squadrons and the two Rafale squadrons of 36 aircraft. That is 42 squadrons or 848 combat aircraft. 42 is the bare minimum that is required by the IAF.

Below is the PLAAF strength. In just the first two aircraft alone, they are more than the entire strength of the IAF.

J-10s: 600+
J-11s: 440
J-16: 245
J-20: 200+
Su-30MKK: 200+
------------------------
Grand Total of ~1,700 combat aircraft.

How many more aircraft are we planning to acquire to meet this Chinese horde? How more Tejas do you propose we acquire? Another 200? Or 400? Who is going to fund this? Just to get 83 Tejas Mk1As ordered, was akin to riding a wild bull along matadors armed with spears surrounding it. In Communist China, does Xi ever encounter this conondrum?

Foreign Minister Jaishankar put it best ---> “Look, they (China) are the bigger economy. What am I going to do? As a smaller economy, I am going to pick up a fight with the bigger economy? It is not a question of being reactionary, it’s a question of common sense….”

Do you really believe that a war between India and China will last for 2+ years, as in Ukraine? India and (especially) China are manufacturing hubs for the world. How long do you think the world will just sit around and wait, while the two Asian giants figure out their differences? Russia and Ukraine caused enough global upheaval from rising gas prices to grain shortages to whatnot else. In a long drawn out conflict between India and China, you will have a global economic meltdown if the two countries remain at war for that long.

It is for this VERY reason why China is hesitant about invading Taiwan. A quick, sharp military adventure with guaranteed success is what China wants in Taiwan. China will not only lose the war, but also political capital at home...if the war in Taiwan extends for a lengthy period of time. And losing political capital is the worst nightmare for the CCP, as that will unravel the mythical invincibility thread of the CCP.

One of China's main pillars - in aspiring to dominate the world - rests on mass production and they have certainly mastered that. Their navy is expanding on a scale never before seen in modern history. Their air force is no less. And they advertise this mass production as a means of putting fear into their enemies ---> "See our industrial output is far greater than yours, so you better capitulate to us." This video serves that very purpose and I am sorry to say this, but you walked right into that trap.

But all is not well in the land of the lizard eaters. What Doklam and Galwan proved is that the CCP has a very low bar for pain & humiliation. The industrial gap - between the two nations - was very much present on both occasions, but yet the Chinese have been unable to dislodge India from the heights. Why? They certainly have the military might and the industrial output to push India out of there. So what is stopping them? Do it.

[YashG]

Admiral there is a thin line between dhoti-shiver and to be concerned about the preparations of our adversary. You want your country also to prepare well.

Regarding matching number for number to China- what Ukraine war has shown is that beyond a point your industrial capacity becomes the winning factor. So it is fine that cheen produces 300K and we only 30K (that is also a 10X difference) but during war you capacity should be able to go up by 10X. We need to put in that capacity in place. We need to get out of mindset of buying double digit gold plated western bloatware and instead buy but also setup 10X scalable production lines of khurdura desi maal.

Lets say we cancel gold plated western bloatware and go all in on Tejas. So 27 squadrons of Tejas in multiple variants ---> Mk1, Mk1A, Mk2, etc. At an average of 20 aircraft per squadron, we are looking at 540 aircraft. Add another 272 Su-30MKIs, which at present is 13 squadrons and the two Rafale
.........
much present on both occasions, but yet the Chinese have been unable to dislodge India from the heights. Why? They certainly have the military might and the industrial output to push India out of there. So what is stopping them? Do it.

^^^

Admiral you made these points in ur post:
1. Can india match numerical superiority.
2. How long india china war last.
3. China's mass production threat to wear down their adversaries
4. China's low bar of sustaining body bags

1. Can india match numerical superiority.

In PPP terms we are only half the chinese economy - but we are closing the gap. (we are growing at 6-7% while china is at ~5%) In 4-5 years that gap will be less. Indian GDP = 65% of Chinese GDP. So our numbers can and should match up the GDP size. Any less, means we are just dozing off and not preparing well. So just by GDP logic, we can afford more. If we had trouble buying 83 tejas, that was our own making. Like I say the real 0.5 front is inside MoD hollowing out our war preparedness before even a single bullet is fired and all nationalists should focus on this internal enemy.

2. How long india china war last.

China is a not a country, it is basically a group of businessmen. They will attack india not because they have any ideological issue but purely if they think India has become a problem to their business. When companies like Apple move out production to India. (right now its a trickle and they hardly care) But they will care if we become better at production or just simply have way too many mor ehands to carry out production. So they can try for a quick sharp war but war is unpredictable and last. It will not be good for China but status quo will also not be as good for them, especially if they keep seeing their economic heft sliding towards India. It will mirror the logic that Russia had for attacking Ukraine. It was bad short-term but Russia didnt want to see Ukraine slide away.

On the other hand the west will not only not intervene but they will be actively benefited if India and China go to dogs by fighting. It will stop and perhaps re-shift the economic centroid of the world back to transatlantic region - away from China.

3. China's mass production threat to wear down their adversaries
This video is not a trap. It is Schrodinger's cat. It would be a trap only if China was not capable of doing mass production. It is Schrodinger's cat because we will not know how good is Chinese production and what their stockpiles are really until we fight them. The only way to handle this situation is prepare for the worst.

4. China's low bar of sustaining body bags

I agree. But given China can anyway produce 100X or 1000X more drones than us while we do school projects on drone in our forces. They will wipe off Indian soldiers with drones in hordes, like in Russia-Ukraine war. China is the original drone producer. They will produce astronomic quantities, adapt them quickly to any defense we have against them. Our numerical superiority will count but not as much if a drone operator 20kms away can kill our infantry. Videos will be brutal.

[Pratyush]

Reading the truth behind the post from Rakesh. Coupled with the inability of the Indian armed forces to clearly articulate the force structure required to deal with an industrial PRC.

I think that it would be prudent for the Indian leadership to seek surrender terms from PRC. Get it over and done with. So that we can get on with our post surrender day to day life.

[williams]

As usual a lot of dhoti shivering and some times plain shivering in BR.

China follows the age old Sun Tzu strategy. - "Appear weak when you are strong and strong when you are weak". So far China is trying to appear strong through plain propaganda. That provides a clue on Chinese strength.

If at all there could have been a war, there could have been one when there was the Doklam incident, followed by Galwan and that followed by our troop occupying Kailash range. Chinese made a lot of noise but they did not take any escalatory step to start a war. That could tell us that as of now Chinese want to play cat and mouse games, but does not have the intent to fight a full blown war. This is the time when India is at its weakest point. We did not even have the Rafales delivered and Paki economy was slightly better. Every indication from both the political and military leadership of India at that time was getting ready for a war. But it did not happen.

So, that rules out any war in the short term. In the long run, India is building her economy and MIC. For some of us it may not be fast enough, but the foundational changes that have taken place for the past 10 years is simply ground breaking. While China tries to steal, reverse engineer and build their equipment keeping up appearances in their propaganda outlets, India is building things with a lot of cooperation from the west. That could make a huge difference in the future. We will have a much better economy and technology ecosystem to thrive and produce better quality weapons and systems.

On the top of that, our war fighting man power is a lot more hardened than the Chinese.

And finally, better economy does not directly translate into a win in a war. You need the will to fight. Comparing with Russia-Ukraine is the worst kind. In our case we will be defending our territory in the mountains and fighting in other areas like in the Sea to push the Chinese back. Things like war of attrition will not work that well. They will have to defeat us in the mountains or our boys will climb down to Tibet while creating hell in Malacca strait, (and with soft support from the west). The so called business men in China know what that means to them.

So to conclude. We need to be cautious and hurry up building our MIC to defend our battle spaces and keep building foundational capability the right way. We need to break the bureaucratic lethargy for sure. People in the helm of things know it and are making incremental changes. We all want bigger changes and that cannot happen in our culture. SDREs suddenly cannot change their character. Culture change is the most difficult organizational problem. So it is going to be slow. There is no point in cribbing about it.

[Rakesh]

1. Can india match numerical superiority.

In PPP terms we are only half the chinese economy - but we are closing the gap. (we are growing at 6-7% while china is at ~5%) In 4-5 years that gap will be less. Indian GDP = 65% of Chinese GDP. So our numbers can and should match up the GDP size. Any less, means we are just dozing off and not preparing well. So just by GDP logic, we can afford more. If we had trouble buying 83 tejas, that was our own making. Like I say the real 0.5 front is inside MoD hollowing out our war preparedness before even a single bullet is fired and all nationalists should focus on this internal enemy.

It will be a while before we close that gap ---> https://statisticstimes.com/economy/chi ... conomy.php

How long that will take is debatable and is dependent on a number of factors i.e. general elections, economic policy, national outlook/vision, etc. I just happened to read the 2024 Election Manifesto of the Congress Party and the Communist Party of India. Made me shudder for sure.

Eliminating gold plated western bloatware in place of more Tejas is a nice sound bytes to shoot off on BRF, but the reality is a lot different. Overcoming the inertia is easier said than done. Modi has been at it for 10 years now and has just begun to scratch the surface. We have a long way to go.

How many Tejas are we planning to acquire in place of gold plated western bloatware? We don't have our own turbofan and are reliant upon GE to supply the turbofan for the Tejas, that we claim is indigenously designed, developed and manufactured. How long do you think our own turbofan will come online to replace the GE F404? 5 Years? 10 Years? When will India see that sunrise?

Cancel MRFA in place of Tejas Mk1A, Tejas Mk2, TEDBF, ORCA and AMCA and what not else. But which turbofan will we use to fly these indigenous planes? The GE F404 or F414. But MRFA is bad. The GE F404/F414 and MRFA are *ALL* imports and India is reliant upon the nation that is supplying it ---> viewtopic.php?p=2611324#p2611324

Who are we fooling?

2. How long india china war last.
China is a not a country, it is basically a group of businessmen. They will attack india not because they have any ideological issue but purely if they think India has become a problem to their business. When companies like Apple move out production to India. (right now its a trickle and they hardly care) But they will care if we become better at production or just simply have way too many mor ehands to carry out production. So they can try for a quick sharp war but war is unpredictable and last. It will not be good for China but status quo will also not be as good for them, especially if they keep seeing their economic heft sliding towards India. It will mirror the logic that Russia had for attacking Ukraine. It was bad short-term but Russia didnt want to see Ukraine slide away.

On the other hand the west will not only not intervene but they will be actively benefited if India and China go to dogs by fighting. It will stop and perhaps re-shift the economic centroid of the world back to transatlantic region - away from China.

How long do you think a war - not a low intensity conflict, but a full blown war - between India and China will last?

Please give me your timeframe.

3. China's mass production threat to wear down their adversaries
This video is not a trap. It is Schrodinger's cat. It would be a trap only if China was not capable of doing mass production. It is Schrodinger's cat because we will not know how good is Chinese production and what their stockpiles are really until we fight them. The only way to handle this situation is prepare for the worst.

Okay, lets play this game...

Bharat Dynamics Limited (BDL) puts out a video of a missile production facility in India and in that video they claim that the facility can make around 750 BrahMos missiles per month or around 9,000 missiles per year and to date, that facility has manufactured around 81,000 such missiles. Will you believe it?

Think very carefully before you answer, because whatever your answer ends up being (Yes or No), it would be helpful if you had verifiable data to support your answer. And feel free to place yourself in both answers and you are more than welcome to not answer either.

So which route do you want to take? Your Schrodinger's Cat has now met my Shree Yantra.

4. China's low bar of sustaining body bags

I agree. But given China can anyway produce 100X or 1000X more drones than us while we do school projects on drone in our forces. They will wipe off Indian soldiers with drones in hordes, like in Russia-Ukraine war. China is the original drone producer. They will produce astronomic quantities, adapt them quickly to any defense we have against them. Our numerical superiority will count but not as much if a drone operator 20kms away can kill our infantry. Videos will be brutal.

I say again - China has the military might and the industrial output to push India out of heights. In fact, it will be a nice and welcome warm-up exercise for Xi Pooh Bear, prior to the invasion of Taiwan. Why wait? Just send those drones and end the suspense. In fact, China will not even need to station J-10s, J-11s, J-16s and J-20s in Tibet. Everything can be done with drones alone. Once all the Indian troops and bases end up as dust, then the mighty PLA can walk into the heights akin to a Saturday afternoon stroll, singing The East Is Red.

And by this strategy, even Taiwan will be a cakewalk for China. I say we capitulate now onlee.

[Rakesh]

We have grown over the past few decades, our opponents have grown as well. Has our defence budget grown in proportion? Then add to that our currency devaluation vis a vis the USD (the universal currency of arms trade). Can the current budget allocation meet the minimum deterrence requirements?

It boils down to priorities. In a country that has countless Yojanas, Schemes and Missions for the population, national security ranks very low. It does not affect a large section of the population directly or daily, so this is not an issue that is on the forefront of people's mind. And from this very pool of people come our politicians. And for our Babus, the Ministry of Defence is like any other Ministry in the Govt i.e. The Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution OR The Ministry of Fisheries, Animal Husbandry and Dairying. To a Babu (who gets transferred from one Ministry to the next during his/her tenure), purchasing weapons is no different - administratively speaking - than animal husbandry or purchasing grains.

There is no long term thinking or vision, so then how can the defence budget grow in proportion to the economy?

National Security is not a priority for the citizenry, including for some in the armed forces. See this ---> viewtopic.php?p=2616650#p2616650

[Rakesh]

As usual a lot of dhoti shivering and some times plain shivering in BR.

Bingo! +108!

[konaseema]

The question is how much is too much and how much is too little. What is our defense strategy? Are we going to defend what is left of this country or are we going to reclaim the lost land mass between 1947 and 2024? Or are we going to enhance our defense capabilities to the point that it deters our enemies from starting a conflict / war against us? Who decides what is that defense capabilities that we need to deter, defend or recapture lost territory? If you do a survey today just among folks in BR, you will end up with a defense budget that ranges from 3% - 6% of our GDP. What are the learnings from those countries who have these capabilities (Apart from US, Russia & China) we dream about? Where are these countries various human indices or just the quality of life? There is a very fine balance any government of India has to make in terms of various budgetary allocations. The other aspect to also consider is the amount of savings due to avoiding imports and how much of extra capabilities that we have built or planning to build in the coming years? What is the % of the Capex budget are we saving / buying more for the same amount otherwise? Can we also consider how much more we can allocate in terms of % of GDP to defense Capex considering the fact that this also leads to infrastructure building, employment generation & GST collection (or are these exempt from GST)? Just crying wolf that because China can spend so much and why we don't doesn't make sense considering the state or status of Aam janta of India in spite of 10 years of BJP government. We are still lacking basic amenities and hence the question arises do we pump more into defense modernization or improve the quality of life of our fellow citizens. Can we strike a fine balance between the two and still keep China / Pakistan at bay for another decade?

[Rakesh]

Great post konaseema-ji. Needs to be pinned.

[Manish_P]

It boils down to priorities. In a country that has countless Yojanas, Schemes and Missions for the population, national security ranks very low. It does not affect a large section of the population directly or daily, so this is not an issue that is on the forefront of people's mind....

There is no long term thinking or vision, so then how can the defence budget grow in proportion to the economy?

Very true and very accurately pinpointed. IMHO you have put the spot light on the very source of the issue. Rest all follows from this..

National Security is not a priority for the citizenry, including for some in the armed forces. See this ---> viewtopic.php?p=2616650#p2616650

That is the worrying part.

[YashG]

How long do you think a war - not a low intensity conflict, but a full blown war - between India and China will last?

Please give me your timeframe.

How long depends upon what the aggressor's motive are = China's motives.

If it is to decisively destroy India's industrial capacity or disarm India. In either cases, It can be a long campaign unless India capitulates. So how long will India hold. I believe as long as it takes. So it will become a war of attrition. The otherway round is India defeats china - that will also require that India builds huge & decisive stockpiles

War of attrition vs war of manouevre
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/p ... ar-ukraine
So it could last long enough that industrial production capacity & stockpiles will come into question.

-------

Admiral I understand your point, that Indian politics, economics & social situation does allow india to do the stockpiles or build up military strength proportion to its GDP. If thats a limit you're pointing. I Agree.

But that is the problem, ideally that a problem to be solved and if we are not solving it - we are simply not preparing well. Jingos shouldn't be ready to accept that we are preparing anything less than 100%.

[Rakesh]

How long depends upon what the aggressor's motive are = China's motives.

If it is to decisively destroy India's industrial capacity or disarm India. In either cases, It can be a long campaign unless India capitulates. So how long will India hold. I believe as long as it takes. So it will become a war of attrition. The otherway round is India defeats china - that will also require that India builds huge & decisive stockpiles

War of attrition vs war of manouevre
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/p ... ar-ukraine
So it could last long enough that industrial production capacity & stockpiles will come into question.

Lets follow your advice ---> The only way to handle this situation is prepare for the worst.

Worst case scenario = Destruction and eventual Balkanization of the Indian Union. Do we agree on that or do you have an alternate scenario?

I will wait for your reply.

Admiral I understand your point, that Indian politics, economics & social situation does allow india to do the stockpiles or build up military strength proportion to its GDP. If thats a limit you're pointing. I Agree.

But that is the problem, ideally that a problem to be solved and if we are not solving it - we are simply not preparing well. Jingos shouldn't be ready to accept that we are preparing anything less than 100%.

Saar, I asked you this before and I ask again...

How many more Tejas should we acquire in place of gold plated western bloatware? Give me a number. 400? 600?

Because Tejas is good, but gold plated western bloatware is bad. That is the message, correct?

[MeshaVishwas]

China picks its lowest-scoring officers to command nuclear submarines - Michael Peck, Business Insider

The job of commanding a nuclear submarine should go to smart and well-qualified officers. Or at least that's the case in Western navies.

Not so in the Chinese navy. Chinese submarine officers — except for engineers — tend to come from candidates with the lowest college entrance test scores, according to a US analyst. This suggests that People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) sub commanders are not the best and the brightest officers most poised to cope with the stresses and challenges endemic to submarine warfare.

"Based on Gaokao national college entrance exam scoring information for PLA [People's Liberation Army] academic institutions, the PLAN Engineering University on average ranks number two on test scores across PLA academic institutions," according to a paper written by Roderick Lee, an expert on the Chinese military, for the China Maritime Studies Institute at the US Naval War College. "Meanwhile, the Submarine Academy consistently ranks among the bottom three of all PLA institutions."

"Assuming a student's Gaokao score is generally indicative of overall performance potential, this suggests that PLAN submarine officer cadets tracking towards non-engineering department positions are inferior to their engineering brethren," Lee said.

Rivalry between the engineers on the lower decks who keep the ship's engines running, versus bridge officers such as captains, navigators and weapons officers, isn't unusual in any navy; in the US, by contrast, all submarine officers and commanders are trained in nuclear engineering. By the time a Chinese officer reaches submarine command, they've had more than a decade of training and fleet experience since taking their college entry tests.
Still, the selectivity disparity inside the Chinese navy is remarkable, given that submarines would be one of China's most important weapons in a conflict with the US, Japan or Taiwan. The PLAN currently operates around 60 submarines, including 6 armed with nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles, plus 6 nuclear- and 46 diesel-powered attack subs armed with a variety of anti-ship missiles and torpedoes.

Whether academic prowess equates to military competence has always been up for debate. History is full of commanders — such as George McClellan in the American Civil War — who proved more impressive in the classroom than on the battlefield. On the other hand, the legendary George Patton nearly flunked out of West Point.

Regardless, the Chinese navy seems to have had doubts about those commanding its surface ships and submarines: higher-level officers would often sail with them to supervise. "Historically, a PLAN submarine captain's authority could be eroded by the presence of more senior officers onboard," Lee noted. "The issue of flotilla-level leadership deploying to single-ship formations and 'babysitting' ship captains was such an issue for the PLAN surface fleet that the PLAN explicitly prohibited the practice in 2019."

It is not clear to what degree senior officers continue to babysit submarine skippers, who already have to share authority with a political commissar aboard each vessel. There is evidence that having a senior officer effectively take command of a submarine breeds resentment among a sub's crew. Perhaps not coincidentally, Lee notes that flotilla commanders and staff were aboard when the Ming-class diesel sub SS-361 sank in 2003, as well the near-loss of the Kilo-class SS-372 in 2014.

Submarine duty is already arduous and isolating, and command conflicts only exacerbate what appears to be a mental health crisis among Chinese commanders and crews. When researchers from China's Second Military Medical University conducted a survey in 2021 of submarine crews in the PLAN's South China Sea fleet crews, 21 percent reported experiencing mental health issues. Sailors and officers "in the submarine force in the South China Sea are facing mental health risks and suffering from serious psychological problems," concluded the study, which listed education — along with age and experience — as the best predictors of mental health for sub crews.
"Life in the PLAN submarine service is difficult," Christopher Sharman, director of the China Maritime Studies Institute, told Business Insider. "Conditions are challenging and China has suffered submarine accidents in the past. These variables contribute to making a life in the submarine force less attractive."

The thought of a submarine — especially one powered by a nuclear reactor or even armed with nuclear missiles — being commanded by an officer with a low SAT score is less than reassuring. Nonetheless, Lee believes that China's submarine fleet is still a capable force. There are "no clear and glaring flaws in how the PLAN leads its submarine force. Although its educational system underwent some turmoil in the beginning of the 21st century and continues to encounter challenges today, these challenges do not appear to be substantial enough to dramatically affect operational performance."

Yet the poor educational qualifications of Chinese sub skippers may be a vulnerability that US anti-submarines can exploit, Lee suggests. China's submarine force is more likely to make mistakes since it "draws its leaders from some of the worst-performing officer cadets," Lee said. "Even if the Gaokao score is not indicative of overall human performance, it does reflect some level of intelligence and individual dedication. The PLAN submarine force must therefore rely on its least talented officers to lead forces that may be cut off for days if not weeks at a time."

By stressing Chinese submarine commanders, such as confronting them with multiple or unexpected challenges, they could be goaded into making a mistake. "This may make PLAN submarine officers more likely to suffer from the error precursors of poor proficiency, poor problem-solving skills, inappropriate attitudes towards tasks, imprecise communication habits, and inability to handle stress."

On the other hand, a Chinese submarine captain will have had years of experience and additional training before assuming command. It remains to be seen if his college test scores impact his combat performance.

Very interesting info and a good question to end it. How good will the Chinese Navy be, in actual combat?

[drnayar]

https://news.sky.com/story/nasa-chief-s ... e-13117766

We believe that a lot of their so-called civilian space programme is a military programme," he told the House Committee on Appropriations on Wednesday.

"China has made extraordinary strides, especially in the last 10 years, but they are very, very secretive," he said.
My concern would be if China got there first and said, 'This is our territory, you stay out'.

"Obviously you don't want to interfere with each other but don't declare that this whole territory is suddenly yours," he said.

He used China's continued claim of the Spratly Islands, a disputed archipelago in the South China Sea, as an example of the superpower claiming territory.

The Artemis Accords is an agreement that requires space activity to be conducted for peaceful purposes and has been signed by more than 40 countries including the UK.

China has not signed these accords

[Rakesh]

China’s High-Altitude WZ-7 Drone Has Appeared Near The Philippines
https://www.twz.com/air/chinas-high-alt ... hilippines
18 April 2024

This looks to be the first time a WZ-7 has been seen near the Philippines and follows the deployment of a new U.S. Army missile system there.

[MeshaVishwas]

#China PLA has disbanded the Strategic Support Force and announced a new "Information Support Force" responsible for network information systems -- a new step in dominance of the info domain but many questions remain mod.gov.cn/gfbw/sy/tt_214…

-Source
Thread has some additional information, click above to read.

[YashG]

How many more Tejas should we acquire in place of gold plated western bloatware? Give me a number. 400? 600?

Because Tejas is good, but gold plated western bloatware is bad. That is the message, correct?

I'm only looking at indigenous single engine plane LCA for India & J10 for china.

China has 500+ J10 & its MIC has ability to make 250 planes annually (J20 - 100, J16 - 100, J10 - 40).

Ref:
https://www.airandspaceforces.com/indop ... er%20year.

Purely on GDP PPP basis & 2028 horizon (next 4 years - for a likely war by 2028 or before), we should be making 80 per year, to match & cover the backlog of 450+ planes. This will leave us with exactly half of chinese inventory. But china would have also added a lot more J20 and we would have added very few AMCAs. So lets add another 40 LCAs to cover up that. SO I would say we should (Although we cant)

This gives me atleast 120 LCAs to be added per year till 2028 = 480+ 40 currently = 520. Since we havent groomed our MIC for this so these numbers are not achievable. But there should atleast be a plan to groom our MIC for this kind of scale up.

[Rakesh]

Purely on GDP PPP basis & 2028 horizon (next 4 years - for a likely war by 2028 or before), we should be making 80 per year, to match & cover the backlog of 450+ planes. This will leave us with exactly half of chinese inventory. But china would have also added a lot more J20 and we would have added very few AMCAs. So lets add another 40 LCAs to cover up that. SO I would say we should (Although we cant)

This gives me atleast 120 LCAs to be added per year till 2028 = 480+ 40 currently = 520. Since we havent groomed our MIC for this so these numbers are not achievable. But there should atleast be a plan to groom our MIC for this kind of scale up.

Which Tejas variant would you like to fill up the 520 number with? The Mk1A or the Mk2?

If it is the Mk1A, then GE is aiming for a production run of 20 F404 turbofans per year (viewtopic.php?p=2611324#p2611324). So what will the other 60 airframes fly with? There will be a three year time span, before all these 60 airframes take to the sky. The only way to shorten the timeframe, would be to push GE to increase the production schedule (which GE will charge HAL an arm and a leg for) or force GE to ignore all the other customers (T-7 Red Hawk, KAI T-50 Golden Eagle, TAI Hürjet) that are waiting for their F404 orders, not to mention the existing customers that operate this turbofan, mainly the US Marine Corps and the US Navy with the F-18C/D Legacy Hornet. Or is there another option available?

If it is the Mk2, the initial contract is for 99 F414 turbofans (https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/co ... 001904.ece). Anything above and beyond this, will require a follow on contract. HAL and GE are still negotiating on the first contract. But lets give the benefit of the doubt and state that the contract will provide for an unlimited number of F414 turbofans. What is the production schedule of these turbofans? If it is going to mimic the F404 production, it will be too little. Even if by some miraculous turn of events, HAL doubles that production schedule it will still amount to around 40 turbofans per year. But even that will not be enough, by your own estimate of inducting 80 Tejas aircraft per year.

Saar, but will 520 Tejas be enough against 1,700 Chinese fighters? Even if you add the 272 Rambhas to that total, it will still not match what the PLAAF has. We are still nearly a 1,000 aircraft short. Massively increase your Tejas numbers Saar. Don't worry about minor quibbles like the annual defence budget, general elections (we will implement Communism in India), Yojanas and schemes for the citizenry (let them starve and die), etc.

J-10s: 600+
J-11s: 440
J-16: 245
J-20: 200+
Su-30MKK: 200+
------------------------
Grand Total of ~1,700 combat aircraft.

But you said above, that we can't do this. So then this is a pointless and fruitless exercise?

Before we groom our MIC for such a massive scale up, we need to ask this fundamental question ---> where is *OUR* turbofan? If we had our turbofan, we can return even the "36" gold plated, western bloatware that we have right now. But do we have a viable and proven turbofan? In the absence of such, we are (and will) remain reliant on a foreign OEM (i.e. in this case, F404/F414 for Tejas) to provide said turbofan.

In the face of this hard and uncomfortable reality, is it really wrong for Air HQ to want a fighter aircraft that has a non-US turbofan? What is Air HQ's fascination with wanting AMCA Mk2 to have an Indian turbofan? The GE F414 EPE is there (even if it exists currently as a white paper proposal). Way less risk, cheaper and coming from an OEM that has been at this game for decades. Because if it is fine for Tejas, TEDBF, AMCA Mk1...then it should be fine for AMCA Mk2 as well, no? Local maal (even if it has a US turbofan) is good, but phoren maal is bad onlee.

The real issue lies with our apathy in placing timely orders for the existing local maal that we have. The real issue lies with our piecemeal ordering process (i.e. 83 first, then 97 later). The real issue lies with us not investing in flying test beds for the Kaveri turbofan. These are the issues that need to be addressed. The MRFA is a nice punching bag to employ, to cover up the real issues.

When we say Tejas is good, but gold plated western bloatware is bad...we need to put that into perspective.

[Rakesh]

First Indian produced F414 will roll out in three years, once contract is signed. HAL and GE are still negotiating. Assuming a contract is signed tomorrow, the earliest we are looking at is 2027. What will be the annual production schedule for these 99 turbofans? Any discussion on another 99 more for the second tranche of Tejas Mk2s?

https://x.com/rajatpTOI/status/1672463054569897984 --->

[hgupta]

The real issue lies with our apathy in placing timely orders for the existing local maal that we have. The real issue lies with our piecemeal ordering process (i.e. 83 first, then 97 later). The real issue lies with us not investing in flying test beds for the Kaveri turbofan. These are the issues that need to be addressed. The MRFA is a nice punching bag to employ, to cover up the real issues.

When we say Tejas is good, but gold plated western bloatware is bad...we need to put that into perspective.

And whose fault is that? IAF!!! So IAF really can't complain about not having enough fighters because of their apathy and harebrain refusal to support the local economy of producing planes in scale.

[Rakesh]

Everyone has to blame for this mess. Air HQ does take a huge chunk of the blame. But successive Govts have been equally complicit.

But that still does not takeaway from the fact that we don't have our own turbofan. And that is not an IAF issue, but a Govt issue. When SSBNs (ATV program) were required, every stakeholder got on board. We do not have that consensus in India with turbofans or with engines in general.

Every service is suffering because of that lack of consensus i.e. engines for armoured vehicles (i.e. Zorawar light tank, Arjun main battle tank), diesel engines for submarines, engines for surface vessels and turbofans for aircraft.

Our own engines is India's Achilles Heel.

[Rakesh]

Chinese maal scares only the MUTUs on BRF

China’s new H-20 stealth bomber ‘not really’ a concern for Pentagon, says intel official
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GL1ylpLbIAA ... ame=medium
22 April 2024

[Rakesh]

US Pacific commander says China is pursuing ‘boiling frog’ strategy
https://www.ft.com/content/f926f540-d5c ... 3c0d52bcda
28 April 2024

Retiring Admiral John Aquilino accuses Beijing of gradually raising pressure in South China Sea.

[Rakesh]

China’s New Aircraft Carrier Pulls Away From Its Pier Ahead Of Sea Trials
https://www.twz.com/sea/chinas-new-airc ... sea-trials
29 April 2024

China’s first domestically designed aircraft carrier will introduce the People’s Liberation Army Navy to ‘cat and trap’ naval air operations.