Su-30MKI: News and Discussion - 24 July 2021

[Pratyush]

India plans to equip Russian-origin Su-30MKIs with indigenous 'Virupaaksha' radar
https://aninews.in/news/national/genera ... 019183703/
19 Oct 2023

Is this an Uttam that was designed for the Su30 and now has been renamed?

[JTull]

Virupaksha is the name of the Uttam radar flying testbed.

https://x.com/alpha_defense/status/1715 ... 73509?s=20

[Kartik]

India plans to equip Russian-origin Su-30MKIs with indigenous 'Virupaaksha' radar
https://aninews.in/news/national/genera ... 019183703/
19 Oct 2023

Is this an Uttam that was designed for the Su30 and now has been renamed?

It will be an Uttam derivative. Larger antenna with more T/R modules and higher radiating power.

[Rakesh]

Virupaksha is the name of the Uttam radar flying testbed.

Higher resolution image....

Image Source: https://x.com/Defencematrix1/status/171 ... 69824?s=20 --->

[Rakesh]

https://x.com/Varun55484761/status/1715 ... 55880?s=20 ---> UTTAM based AESA radar for Su-30MKI is named as Virupaksha. 400+ Km range, TRMs close to 2000. BEL IRST + Virupaksha will give a fair chance to detect stealth aircraft's at descent ranges.

https://x.com/pdas367/status/1715270229050192270?s=20 ---> For the Gen Zs, "Virupaksha" has a meaning to it, why this name:

1. One without normal eyes or who can see beyond what normal eyes can.
2. "Virupaksha" is also the name of Shiva, it's a form of Shiva who has eyes all over and can see everything.

[Yagnasri]

It is the name of the test bed, sir. Not the Radar name.

[Rakesh]

It is the name of the test bed, sir. Not the Radar name.

No Sir for me. I just posted the tweet.

[Rakesh]

Ramping up capacity, prepared to execute big orders: HAL chief
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... 82823.html
24 Oct 2023, By Rahul Singh

^^^^
https://x.com/AdithyaKM_/status/1716685 ... 99935?s=20 ---> Key points:

- Safran HAL JV for IMRH engines soon, production in 4 years. IMRH by 2031.
- Mk-1A delivery 24/year by 2025-26
- Mk-1A near to CEMILAC clearance
- LCH ~ 25/year for 156 units
- GE F414 deal in an year (fingers crossed)
- 84 Su-30 MKI Uttam + upgrade will not involve any foreign OEM

[Rakesh]

https://x.com/ruskievityazi/status/1719 ... 70302?s=20 ---> Ground run of a Sukhoi Su-30MKI. Guess we haven't seen this one before ever out on social media!

[Rakesh]

https://x.com/Kunal_Biswas707/status/17 ... 12866?s=20 ---> My poster on SU30MKI upgrade specifically built in subsystems by Indian PSUs and Private Sector, independent of Russian involvement except royalties. 272 Su-30MKI are mostly 2002 spec. Given they will face J-16 and F-16 along with J-10 and JF-17, their upgrade must be prioritized above all.

[Rakesh]

Are those FAB-250s under the wing?

https://x.com/severerocket/status/17206 ... 10208?s=20 ---> 60 Years of the Lions! No 31 “Lions” Squadron of the Indian Air Force recently celebrated their Diamond Jubilee and this Su-30MKI with special tail markings added extra charm to the spectacular event!

[Rakesh]

IAF moving Su-30s to ex-MiG-21 squadron
https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news ... 1-squadron
03 Nov 2023

=======================================

They got the number of Su-30MKI squadrons wrong. The article states 15 squadrons. The actual strength - not including TACDE - is 13 squadrons.

1) No.2 Winged Arrows
2) No.4 Oorials
3) No.8 Eight Pursoots
4) No.15 Flying Lancers (of Balakot fame )
5) No.24 Hawks
6) No.31 Lions
7) No.20 Lightnings
8] No.30 Rhinos
9) No.102 Trisonics (ex MiG-25 squadron)
10) No.106 Lynxes
11) No.220 Desert Tigers
12) No.221 Valiants
13) No.222 Tigersharks (armed with BrahMos-A)
+ TACDE (Tactics and Air Combat Development Establishment)

[Rakesh]

Some excellent Su-30MKI photographs from these links (a Thai blog)....

https://aagth1.blogspot.com/2023/01/vee ... 30mki.html

https://aagth1.blogspot.com/2023/11/su- ... ig-21.html

[LakshmanPST]

They got the number of Su-30MKI squadrons wrong. The article states 15 squadrons. The actual strength - not including TACDE - is 13 squadrons.

Most of these ppl simply divide total numbers by 18 to calculate no. of squadrons...
May be that is how they arrived at the 15 figure... 272/18=15.11

[sajaym]

Also, how are they raising a new squadron If HAL had stopped manufacturing SU-30s Hain ji? The new order has just been approved.

[Rakesh]

Also, how are they raising a new squadron If HAL had stopped manufacturing SU-30s Hain ji? The new order has just been approved.

Please read the article I posted...

IAF moving Su-30s to ex-MiG-21 squadron
https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news ... 1-squadron
03 Nov 2023

[LakshmanPST]

Also, how are they raising a new squadron If HAL had stopped manufacturing SU-30s Hain ji? The new order has just been approved.

Production stopped back in 2021 itself...
By the end of production, they had around 10 jets for new squadron...
They'd have transferred some jets from other squadrons owing to increased availability rate...
I guess converting the squadron started last year itself and the last MIG21 was retired few days back...

[Rakesh]

They got the number of Su-30MKI squadrons wrong. The article states 15 squadrons. The actual strength - not including TACDE - is 13 squadrons.

Most of these ppl simply divide total numbers by 18 to calculate no. of squadrons...
May be that is how they arrived at the 15 figure... 272/18=15.11

Indeed. Out of the 272 made, 12 have crashed to date (https://www.bharat-rakshak.com/IAF/Data ... nit=&qt=TY). So there are 260 airframes in service. If you average 260 with 13 squadrons, you get an even 20 aircraft per squadron. But unlikely the squadron strength will be that number. It will vary from one squadron to the next. Plus some airframes will be assigned to TACDE. They need to get the order signed for those 12 attrition replacements ASAP.

[Cain Marko]

^ I thought mki sqds numbered at 18 each?

[fanne]

20 number has 2 trainers, which is not needed in case of su30mki

[fanne]

That would mean we have 14 sq of su30mki

[LakshmanPST]

^ I thought mki sqds numbered at 18 each?

Su30s were ordered in 4 batches... Each batch had different numbers per squadron--->
1) 50 jets - 2 squadrons, 25 per squadron
2) 140 jets - 7 squadrons, 20 per squadron
3) 40 jets - 2 squadrons, 20 per squadron
4) 42 jets - 2 squadrons, 21 per squadron

TACDE probably take some 7-8 jets from various squadrons...
-
Common People generally tend to count squadron number as 16 fighters + 2 trainers + Attrition reserves.
But that is a wrong assumption IMO or I can say it is gross simplification...

Squadron numbers have one factor which is not exactly known to general public---> Operational philosophy
This is not an official term, but a term that I gave...
It is basically about how IAF wants to operate, train and fight with each type of aircraft/squadron in both peace time and war time... This is something general public will never know... Only IAF would know...
----
However, as an outsider, I have one pet theory which has no basis what so ever... But based on looking at various squadron numbers floating around for different jets both historically and currently, I may not be completely wrong...

Rough estimate of fighter squadrons can be arrived at by looking at the availability rate...
My theory is that IAF needs atleast 12 operational jets at any given time per squadron during peacetime...

75% availability rate is generally achievable rate for most modern jets, so 16 jets per squadron is the norm...
If the availability is projected to be 60%, you need 20 jets per squadron...
If it is 50%, you need 24 jets...
And for 40% you need 30 jets...

During early days of Su30 induction, you needed more jets to train more pilots, develop tactics & strategies etc. and availability rate is also pretty low...
But as time went by, they improved the availability rates or I'd say, achieved the targetted availability rate...

For Su30s, the targetted minimum availability rate is probably 60%... I guess due to further improvisation of the same, they're able to get enough jets to raise the 13th squadron...
-
Well, just my theory...

[LakshmanPST]

So, with raising of 13th squadron, IAF reached the brink...
They have exactly 20 jets per squadron after they lost 12 jets... So, there are no enough jets for attrition reserves...
The 12 jets being ordered are only for future attrition...

[Aditya_V]

So, with raising of 13th squadron, IAF reached the brink...
They have exactly 20 jets per squadron after they lost 12 jets... So, there are no enough jets for attrition reserves...
The 12 jets being ordered are only for future attrition...

IAF has lost 9 Su-30MKI

[JTull]

2 airframes are dedicated for weapons integration and upgrade testing with TACDE.

[Rakesh]

So, with raising of 13th squadron, IAF reached the brink...
They have exactly 20 jets per squadron after they lost 12 jets... So, there are no enough jets for attrition reserves...
The 12 jets being ordered are only for future attrition...

IAF has lost 9 Su-30MKI

12 crashes ---> https://www.bharat-rakshak.com/IAF/Data ... nit=&qt=TY

[Rakesh]

X-Post from the MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III thread...

The logical question to ask would be --> why procure the F-15EX? When a Super Su-30MKI can be created using the AL-41 and the latest Indian avionics?

The technology developed for the new aircraft can easily feed the AMCA program as well.

The Super Sukhoi upgrade does not feature an engine change. Confirmed by HVT Sir.

[Pratyush]

The Super Sukhoi upgrade does not feature an engine change. Confirmed by HVT Sir.

I should have been more clear with my nomenclature of the aircraft that I had in mind.

Let's call it Su 30 MKI-Mk2.

It will be a new build aircraft with the following attributes.

1) Indian Radar.
2) India mission computer.
3) Indian EW systems.
4) Indian IRST, that is under development.
5) Strengthened for Brahmos and similar weight munitions.
6) AL 41 for a higher thrust to weight ratio, and improved service ability.

All this is well within current Indian technical and industrial capacity.

Therefore, to my mind, it also makes the F15 EX a fairly useless proposal for the IAF.

[VishnuS]

The Super Sukhoi upgrade does not feature an engine change. Confirmed by HVT Sir.

Bhai, Now I am worried about the Electrical Power Output to GaN radar and other Electronic upgrades.

N011M Bars had peak Power Output of 5KW. GaAs Uttam itself has Peak Power Output of 4.5KW. Virupaksha is said to have 1.5 times wider antena and 1.8 - 2 times of T/R modules of Uttam, even if we consider GaN T/R modules are equally rated as the GaAs modules of Uttam (I am 100% sure they are not and GaN are higher power rated and Virupaksha's cooling is also more powerful) then the power consumption of the Radar alone is doubled.

How will the electrical needs are fulfilled without an engine upgrade!?

IMHO, it is like upgrading your CPU, Graphics Card, RAM, Water Cooler, LED Strips of the Computer without upgrading it's power module.

I understand Engine Upgrade is costly and it complicates the process, but....

There is one more point, adding SAP 518 and SAP 14 to Flanker makes it less manoeuvrable. What we will never know is....is the weight that makes them less manoeuvrable or the huge electrical load that is added on the engine as a result which produces less thrust or both!? How will the new electrical systems impact the current power load!?

PS. I was expecting an engine upgrade, not to AL 41s, but different cousin of AL 31 engine that produces more thrust.

[fanne]

The Super Sukhoi upgrade does not feature an engine change. Confirmed by HVT Sir.

N011M Bars had peak Power Output of 5KW. GaAs Uttam itself has Peak Power Output of 4.5KW. Virupaksha is said to have 1.5 times wider antena and 1.8 - 2 times of T/R modules of Uttam, even if we consider GaN T/R modules are equally rated as the GaAs modules of Uttam (I am 100% sure they are not and GaN are higher power rated and Virupaksha's cooling is also more powerful) then the power consumption of the Radar alone is doubled.

No expert, just an internet surfer. From what I gather, GAN consumes half power over GaAs for all else being equal. This is what is propelling GaN development to replace GaAs.

[VishnuS]

No expert, just an internet surfer. From what I gather, GAN consumes half power over GaAs for all else being equal. This is what is propelling GaN development to replace GaAs.

GaN is more efficient, yes but it also can handle higher peak power and the peak power is one of the primary reason for its development.

The higher peak power, the better the radar is.... I know that's a layman statement, I read something about lobes and db, it was technical stuff, but end point is radar's peak power...

N011M and N001 both are PESA radars, we have N011M and it is far more powerful than the N001 Flanker was initially planned for.... N011M is also heavier, hence the canards to improve manoeuvrablilty...

Coming to Flanker power generation, only thing that comes to my mind is replacing the existing alternator with a powerful one, but that doesn't solve the core problem of draining more power from engines, leaving them with lesser thrust....

[Rakesh]

https://x.com/Duorope/status/1722858309533708431?s=20 ---> Brahmos loading on Su-30MKI.

[Rakesh]

So, with raising of 13th squadron, IAF reached the brink...
They have exactly 20 jets per squadron after they lost 12 jets... So, there are no enough jets for attrition reserves...
The 12 jets being ordered are only for future attrition...

FINALLY!!!

Indian Air Force issues tender to HAL for buying 12 Su-30MKI fighter jets
https://aninews.in/news/national/genera ... 121192027/
21 Nov 2023

[Kartik]

Confirmed news on another site as well

IAF issues tender to HAL for buying 12 Su-30MKI fighters

In a step towards boosting its squadron strength, the Indian Air Force has issued a tender to the state-owned Hindustan Aeronautics Limited for the purchase of 12 advanced Su-30MKI fighter jets.

"Recently, a tender has been issued to the HAL for buying the 12 Su-30MKI fighters, which will be manufactured in India by the HAL in partnership with the Russian original equipment manufacturers," defence sources told ANI.

..

[hgupta]

Why is the number of Su-30s capped at 272? Why not increase it to 480 Su-30 MKIs and do our own upgrades and have that engine upgrade as well? And get 24 AWACS to provide 24/7 continuous radar coverage for the Su-30s? This would make the Su-30s a far more formidable aircraft and provide enough numbers to take on 2 fronts. It is far cheaper than getting the Rafales and does the job of Rafales for cheaper.

[drnayar]

Maybe the IAF is wary of putting too many eggs in the [russian] basket and sees an interim future with tejas 1a/2 -rafale combo and mk2-amca in the long term

[Rakesh]

Sorry Hgupta Sir, but that is a disastrous suggestion. Reasons are;

1) The end goal is to reduce dependency on any foreign country for India’s defence needs. Atmanirbhar Bharat will take decades to achieve and adding more Su-30s to the fleet is counterproductive to that goal. The secondary goal is to substitute many of the foreign components on platforms with Indian ones. This is what will happen with the 84 Rambhas that will be upgraded to the Super Sukhoi standard as a first tranche. These 12 attrition replacement Rambhas will also be built to this standard.

2) Su-30MKI cannot do what Rafale does. That is a misconception that was unfortunately started by the late Manohar Parrikar. The Rambha’s RCS is massive and will light up on any modern radar. The Rafale is considerably less as a LO aircraft and will be used to break down the door. Tasking that role to the Su-30MKI will result in unacceptably high attrition losses in wartime. Rambhas (or any other non-LO aircraft) will get swatted down like mosquitoes in the modern air defence network.

3) Doubling the Rambha fleet - as you have suggested - will take away much needed funds for fleet upgrades, other platform acquisitions (i.e. Tejas, AMCA, Rafale, etc). The money pot is finite and decisions made today have a ripple effect for decades into the future.

* The better path forward is to do the following;

A] Complete the Rambha fleet upgrade to as many aircraft currently in service. This will be the backbone of the strike fleet (for the next two decades) and will be the main tip of the strike spear, once the Rafale has cleared the path.

B] Close the MRFA contest via ordering another 4 - 6 additional Rafale squadrons. Investments have already been made in the first two Rafale squadrons and additional Rafales will be the easiest aircraft to integrate into the IAF's ORBAT. Ordering any other MRFA is as disastrous as doubling the Rambha fleet. But regardless of whatever aircraft chosen, the MRFA is coming.

C] All focus should now be on the Tejas Mk1A, Tejas Mk2, unmanned VLO aircraft (i.e. HAL CATS Warrior) and AMCA. The AMCA Mk2 will be the eventual Rambha replacement in the future. Unmanned VLO aircraft - in the strike role - are also key to avoid chasing the mythical (and now redundant) 42 manned squadrons. Manned aircraft - in the strike role - will become obsolete.

[Aditya_V]

Su-30MKI has a huge RCS, like the F-15. Also high OPEX cost. Many advantages with some disadvantages. That's why while the Su-30MKI scared the PAF F-16s, the Mirage 2000 with lower RCS moved to release the bombs on Balakot.

Su-30MKI is heavy lifter, it can do CAP missions for long time, a very good fighter in open war. But will not be the fighter which does the first surprise strike.

[hgupta]

Sorry Hgupta Sir, but that is a disastrous suggestion. Reasons are;

1) The end goal is to reduce dependency on any foreign country for India’s defence needs. Atmanirbhar Bharat will take decades to achieve and adding more Su-30s to the fleet is counterproductive to that goal. The secondary goal is to substitute many of the foreign components on platforms with Indian ones. This is what will happen with the 84 Rambhas that will be upgraded to the Super Sukhoi standard as a first tranche. These 12 attrition replacement Rambhas will also be built to this standard.

India already has a supply chain system in place for the MKIs. India could have very well secure unlimited local production rights for all components with a larger order and a IP rights buy out which Russia very well would appreciate because Russia needs funds to procure their own aircraft systems and are too busy fulfilling their urgently needed orders to beef up their own numbers to export any more aircrafts. This was a missed golden opportunity for India to secure all IP rights to local production of the MKIs and further fortify its own supply chain. The upgraded MKIs are here to stay for another 30 years. We could have made sure that no one including Russia could eff India on its MKI planes making MKI one of the most reliable and formidable planes in its inventory. We cannot do the same thing with Rafales.

2) Su-30MKI cannot do what Rafale does. That is a misconception that was unfortunately started by the late Manohar Parrikar. The Rambha’s RCS is massive and will light up on any modern radar. The Rafale is considerably less as a LO aircraft and will be used to break down the door. Tasking that role to the Su-30MKI will result in unacceptably high attrition losses in wartime. Rambhas (or any other non-LO aircraft) will get swatted down like mosquitoes in the modern air defence network.

That didn't stop US from ordering more F-15s. Despite the stealthy moniker, the F-15 still has a huge RCS. With longer range standoff strike weapons, the upgraded MKIs can fairly do 80~85% of what Rafale can do and make up the deficiencies with greater numbers and using the LCAs to pick up the slack.

3) Doubling the Rambha fleet - as you have suggested - will take away much needed funds for fleet upgrades, other platform acquisitions (i.e. Tejas, AMCA, Rafale, etc). The money pot is finite and decisions made today have a ripple effect for decades into the future.

This is where I disagree. We already have a ecosystem in place for the MKIs. It is in India's interest to master, own, and indianize the whole bang, the ecosystem, etc.

* The better path forward is to do the following;

A] Complete the Rambha fleet upgrade to as many aircraft currently in service. This will be the backbone of the strike fleet (for the next two decades) and will be the main tip of the strike spear, once the Rafale has cleared the path.

You have admitted that Rambha is the backbone of the strike fleet. Why not secure that by making sure we have plenty of numbers and mastering and owning the entire thing?

B] Close the MRFA contest via ordering another 4 - 6 additional Rafale squadrons. Investments have already been made in the first two Rafale squadrons and additional Rafales will be the easiest aircraft to integrate into the IAF's ORBAT. Ordering any other MRFA is as disastrous as doubling the Rambha fleet. But regardless of whatever aircraft chosen, the MRFA is coming.

For that kind of money being spent on MRFA, India could have received 12 squadrons of Tejas Mk II and secure the development cycle of the ORCA program, of which is a better platform than the Rafales and completely ensure that India is no longer reliant on another country for its fighter jets for 30-40 years.

C] All focus should now be on the Tejas Mk1A, Tejas Mk2, unmanned VLO aircraft (i.e. HAL CATS Warrior) and AMCA. The AMCA Mk2 will be the eventual Rambha replacement in the future. Unmanned VLO aircraft - in the strike role - are also key to avoid chasing the mythical (and now redundant) 42 aircraft manned squadrons. Manned aircraft - in the strike role - will become obsolete.

Then why waste further money on Rafale program? ( I love the Rafales and I wished that India had ordered more planes back at that time instead of 36). Use that money and go all the way in on option C instead of spending more money on Rafales which only guarantee further dependency on a foreign nation for continued use of the fighters. We cannot upgrade the Rafales without paying a fortune through our nose. We cannot order spares without paying a fortune through our nose. Sometimes the best move you can make with your hand is to fold and play another set of cards. We need to fold our hand with respect to the Rafale program and go hard in by making an offer to Russia for a one time payment to produce enough planes to take the numbers up to 480 and keeping all IP rights to the MKI platforms, including upgrades and engines and indigenize the entire MKI ecosystem (Russia will take it up because it has other fighter programs to support and cannot support many fighter jet programs at once) and go hard in on LCA Tejas II, ORCA, and AMCA.

This way, we have guaranteed that our fighter jets are not dependent on any other nation anymore and we do not have to pay a bloody fortune to any other nation.

[Rakesh]

India already has a supply chain system in place for the MKIs. India could have very well secure unlimited local production rights for all components with a larger order and a IP rights buy out which Russia very well would appreciate because Russia needs funds to procure their own aircraft systems and are too busy fulfilling their urgently needed orders to beef up their own numbers to export any more aircrafts. This was a missed golden opportunity for India to secure all IP rights to local production of the MKIs and further fortify its own supply chain. The upgraded MKIs are here to stay for another 30 years. We could have made sure that no one including Russia could eff India on its MKI planes making MKI one of the most reliable and formidable planes in its inventory. We cannot do the same thing with Rafales.

An assembly supply chain is not the same thing as a manufacturing supply chain.

Yes, HAL can assemble Su-30MKIs. But they cannot manufacture them. HAL loves to claim that AL-31FP is built from the raw material stage, but the truth is otherwise. You yourself admitted above that India missed a golden opportunity. And with the war in Ukraine, that ship has long sailed. But there is no point crying over spilt milk. The only path left now is to indigenize as much of the Su-30MKI as we can. Even these 12 "attrition replacement" Su-30MKIs require permission from Russia. Without the partnership of the Russian OEMs, not a single one of these 12 Su-30MKIs will fly.

Same story with the Rafale as well. No manufacturer will allow this. This is their bread & butter, so why would they give it to any one else? What incentive is in it for the manufacturer? The better option is to keep the customer perpetually tied to you, for the life of the aircraft. Why would Saturn Lyulka hand over technology of their AL-31FP to India? They never even did that for their Chinese brethren and that is why their J-11/15/16 (clones of the Su-27/Su-30) all fly with Shenyang or Wuhan turbofans. The Chinese reverse engineered everything they got their hands on. India, on the other hand, follow contract stipulations to the letter. That is why China is where they are and India is where it is.

That didn't stop US from ordering more F-15s. Despite the stealthy moniker, the F-15 still has a huge RCS. With longer range standoff strike weapons, the upgraded MKIs can fairly do 80~85% of what Rafale can do and make up the deficiencies with greater numbers and using the LCAs to pick up the slack.

The USAF will not send a single F-15EX or F-16 Block 70/72 (which they are also ordering) without the F-22 or F-35 clearing the path first. To not do this, will be sending pilots into suicide missions. So yes, the USAF is still ordering fourth generation platforms and will continue to do so, as an all fifth generation fleet is expensive to purchase, operate and maintain. But you need a balance - you need an optimized mix of both types.

The F-15EX's stealthy moniker is nothing more than marketing spin from Boeing. All OEMs do this for marketing their wares. If you listen to Saab's marketing, Gripen E will trump anything out there and even in the future. That is marketing at is best. But marketing cannot overcome the laws of science. An aircraft is either VLO/LO or it is not. It is that simple. Boeing did the same marketing with their F-18SH and Vikrant. They were claiming that the F-18SH could operate with ease from INS Vikrant and even from INS Vikramaditya! Then came the tests in May 2022 at the SBTF in Goa and then Boeing went silent. Physics played spoilt sport, as the arrestor gear on the Vikrant is designed for the MiG-29K, Tejas and the Rafale. The F-18SH was just too overweight for the arrestor gear to handle.

With a VLO aircraft (F-22, F-35, etc), the attrition losses will be much less versus operating a LO aircraft (Rafale). But India will not get the F-22 (cannot be exported to any other country, as per US Govt law) or the F-35 (for now). So the only aircraft available is the Rafale or something like it. The IAF will need a sizeable fleet of LO aircraft, as many of them could likely be lost, when they try to break down the door. 36 Rafales is just not going to cut it, in a full scale air conflict. The situation gets even more worse when you factor in an aircraft that is not even LO. Something like the Su-30MKI will face unacceptably high losses. Please look at the IAF's own estimated losses during Exercise Gagan Shakti.

The situation will be no different with any other aircraft currently in service with the IAF --> MiG-29UPG, Mirage 2000I/TI, Jaguar IS/IB/IM, Tejas Mk1, Tejas Mk1A. These will all have similar unacceptably high levels of attrition, if you don't create a safe air corridor for these aircraft to do their job. And this is not my theory, but has been mentioned by many in the IAF leadership. Here is one from Air Chief Marshal BS Dhanoa ---> viewtopic.php?p=2528559&hilit=SEAD+Dhanoa#p2528559

This is where I disagree. We already have a ecosystem in place for the MKIs. It is in India's interest to master, own, and indianize the whole bang, the ecosystem, etc.

As mentioned earlier, we have an assembly ecosystem. So we are capitalizing on that for the Super Sukhoi upgrade. The IAF will Indianize, as much as they can on the platform. But there is a limit to how much can be done. What could not be done 20+ years ago (IP control), cannot be done now. No country will give you full 100% IP control over their product.

Example - India would like to export Tejas to Philippines, Egypt. They have even offered to set up an assembly line in Egypt. But will India provide full 100% IP control to Philippines and Egypt? Can they even do this, with the powerplant being US in origin? Even if the turbofan ends up being a Kaveri derivative, will India provide the IP for the Kaveri turbofan? Will India set up a GaN fab in Egypt or Philippines for the Uttam radar? Because if India will not do these things, then how can they offer full IP control of the Tejas? The better option - for India - would be to have the Philippine Air Force and the Egyptian Air Force go back to HAL for any further orders or platform upgrades. If we will not do this, then why should anyone else behave any differently?

Going back to the Super Sukhoi upgrade, the Bars radar is being replaced with the Uttam. Indian weapons (Astra, SAAW, other PGMs, etc) are replacing much of the Russian origin weaponry. The Russian IRST is being replaced with an Indian one. The SAP-518 and SAP-514 pods are being replaced with one from DRDO. There are reportedly 44 items in the Super Sukhoi upgrade that will feature Indian kit. But there is a limit to what can be done, within a legal framework, that India always adheres to.

We can give the middle finger - and we did - on some occasions (i.e. BrahMos integration on the Su-30MKI), but we had to go back to Russia when it came to assembly of any new build aircraft i.e. 12 additional Su-30MKIs. Otherwise we have to do what the Chinese did. Reverse engineer. But will India do it? Do we really have the time - with an alarming squadron shortage - to go gallivanting on some reverse engineering experiment? So let us not waste time on reverse engineering or even assembling (legally!) more foreign platforms. The MRFA is another sorry episode and even if India does end up choosing the Rafale, it is not going to be a magic pill. There are obvious geopolitical advantages in choosing the Rafale, but otherwise it is just another foreign platform.

Our only real solution is Tejas (Mk1A and Mk2), the AMCA Mk2 and unmanned strike aircraft. That is where we should be diverting all our resources - financial capital, human capital, industrial capacity, etc. No more assembling foreign aircraft with zero advantages and with a country that has no interest in doing so. There is no time for this, when we have much more valuable local programs that require attention and funding.

You have admitted that Rambha is the backbone of the strike fleet. Why not secure that by making sure we have plenty of numbers and mastering and owning the entire thing?

I have explained this above.

For that kind of money being spent on MRFA, India could have received 12 squadrons of Tejas Mk II and secure the development cycle of the ORCA program, of which is a better platform than the Rafales and completely ensure that India is no longer reliant on another country for its fighter jets for 30-40 years.

For as long as the Su-30MKI, MiG-29UPG, Mirage 2000I/TI and even 36 Rafales are in active service, India will *ALWAYS* remain reliant on Russia and France for the continued maintenance of these aircraft. There is no two ways about this, as explained above.

Secondly, the math clearly proves one thing - even if we get 12 Tejas Mk2 squadrons (as you suggested above), 9 Tejas Mk1A squadrons, 13 Su-30MKI squadrons and 2 Rafale squadrons, you will still come up to only 36 squadrons. The IAF is still insisting on 42 manned squadrons. So we are still short of another six squadrons. And by the time, 12 Tejas Mk2 and 9 Tejas Mk1A squadrons are in service....the Jaguar, MiG-29 and Mirage 2000 will have long been retired. Squadrons are retiring (or nearing obsolesce) at an alarming rate and even with all the local orders....you will still need additional aircraft to cater for different mission profiles.

The MRFA is coming, whether we like it or not.

Then why waste further money on Rafale program? ( I love the Rafales and I wished that India had ordered more planes back at that time instead of 36). Use that money and go all the way in on option C instead of spending more money on Rafales which only guarantee further dependency on a foreign nation for continued use of the fighters. We cannot upgrade the Rafales without paying a fortune through our nose. We cannot order spares without paying a fortune through our nose. Sometimes the best move you can make with your hand is to fold and play another set of cards. We need to fold our hand with respect to the Rafale program and go hard in by making an offer to Russia for a one time payment to produce enough planes to take the numbers up to 480 and keeping all IP rights to the MKI platforms, including upgrades and engines and indigenize the entire MKI ecosystem (Russia will take it up because it has other fighter programs to support and cannot support many fighter jet programs at once) and go hard in on LCA Tejas II, ORCA, and AMCA.

This way, we have guaranteed that our fighter jets are not dependent on any other nation anymore and we do not have to pay a bloody fortune to any other nation.

* The IAF does not want any more Russian maal. The Govt cannot force the IAF to accept a plane it does not want. In the CAG report on MMRCA 1.0, it was Air HQ that clearly stated that they do not want the F-16 or the F-18, as they were afraid of sanctions. You cannot convince Air HQ otherwise. Good luck! US geopolitical analysts were puzzled, even US apologists on BRF were equally puzzled - India settled for a plane, not a relationship. But in India foreign policy is NOT tied to weapon sales. Yes, that is how America operates....but that is not how India functions.

* The IAF has invested upwards of $1 billion on ISE upgrades on the Rafale fleet. If Air HQ had its way, they would have ordered additional Rafale aircraft, like yesterday. For Air HQ, Rafale is the future. The Rafale is the benchmark that Air HQ now uses to measure all other combat aircraft with. In the short term, Air HQ wants only Rafale and nothing else. To avoid the Su-30MKI episode, Air HQ wants to integrate many Indian weaponry on the Rafale, with Astra and BrahMos-NG being the first set to see integration.

* In the long term, Air HQ wants all their upcoming platforms (i.e. Tejas Mk2, AMCA) to surpass the Rafale. It was Air Marshal Raghunath Nambiar (retd), former Chief of the Western Air Command, who said that the Tejas Mk2 will have better sensors and avionics than the Rafale. If the walls at Air HQ could speak, you would hear only one word - Rafale, Rafale, Rafale!

* Yes French maal is expensive and yes, India will spend a fortune in upgrading the Rafale fleet. But this is what Air HQ wants. The Mirage 2000 upgrade cost a fortune and many did rona-dhona when they saw the cost! But when Balakot happened, it was not the Su-30MKI that conducted the strike. It was the upgraded Mirage 2000I (along with the non-upgraded Mirage 2000H) that completed the mission. Not a soul did rona-dhona at that time.