Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

[Cyrano]

Excellent JEM saar !

[IndraD]

https://twitter.com/jai_menon/status/16 ... 07840?s=20 (Twitter link)

I've written an article in Swarajya on the general state of play...on Ukraine

https://swarajyamag.com/world/nato-and- ... -look-away

brilliant stuff JEM saar!

[Najunamar]

https://twitter.com/jai_menon/status/16 ... 07840?s=20 (Twitter link)

I've written an article in Swarajya on the general state of play...on Ukraine

https://swarajyamag.com/world/nato-and- ... -look-away

Excellent articulation of the gorilla with hand in cookie jar situation of US/West.

[Aditya_V]

It seems come Computer chips were shipped to Russia through Maldives

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/S ... -to-Russia

[Pratyush]

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/07/ ... cow-a81972

Former U.S. Official Shares Details of Secret ‘Track 1.5’ Diplomacy With Moscow

Published on July 27, 2023.

Quoting the most important passage from the article.

In fact, we emphasized that the U.S. needs, and will continue to need, a strong enough Russia to create stability along its periphery. The U.S. wants a Russia with strategic autonomy in order for the U.S. to advance diplomatic opportunities in Central Asia. We in the U.S. have to recognize that total victory in Europe could harm our interests in other areas of the world.

“Russian power,” he concluded, “is not necessarily a bad thing.”

If the above represents a genuine US interest. Then this whole Ukraine war is going to end badly for the USA.

[drnayar]

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/07/ ... cow-a81972

Former U.S. Official Shares Details of Secret ‘Track 1.5’ Diplomacy With Moscow

Published on July 27, 2023.

Quoting the most important passage from the article.


If the above represents a genuine US interest. Then this whole Ukraine war is going to end badly for the USA.

ALSO
“Putin is the major block to all progress,” he said. “The U.S. administration has made at least one attempt to speak with the Kremlin but Putin himself refused.”

For this reason, he argued, Washington “should begin reaching out to the anti-war Russian elite and begin making progress with them.”

If there was support among the elite for another leader, he said, “ousting Putin would not be impossible.”

[Lisa]

FWIW, it is a criminal offence for an American citizen to discuss policy with a foreign power without the consent of the US government.

[Pratyush]

After the Trump NSA fiasco. I was asking myself the same question while reading that article.

But it was interesting enough for me to post on the forum.

[chanakyaa]

In the meantime, some German old timers know what is at stake for their country, but they may be in minority and appears to be helpless.

Following article is in German so you need to open in Google Chrome to translate.

Oskar Lafontaine on drowned poodle

[RamSuresh]

Following article is in German so you need to open in Google Chrome to translate.

Oskar Lafontaine on drowned poodle

Crisp and wonderful. There was another link someone had posted. It argued that the primary purpose of this war is to ensure that Russia and Germany dont come any closer ever in the future. That is the only combination that is a true economic and military threat to US. Lafontaine agrees that it has been achieved.

[habal]

In the meantime, some German old timers know what is at stake for their country, but they may be in minority and appears to be helpless.

Following article is in German so you need to open in Google Chrome to translate.

Oskar Lafontaine on drowned poodle

It's not that simple.

Germany is always with Russia or China. If it distances itself in direct trade with Russia, then it gets closer to Russia via China. Russia is still getting german tech CNC machine spare parts for weapons building easily from Germany via China. If US wants to sanction China as well, then it is a self-fulfilling prophecy. Either way US has to walk a tighrope on this one. Long term it's a losing battle for them.

[IndraD]

Ukraine must prepare to lose the White House https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/0 ... 90762160-1

[sanman]

How Ukraine war helped China penetrate Russian auto market:

[sanman]

Col Douglas MacGregor

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k-fuJJCXlKM

[ramana]

There is link to a RAND report on what will be outcome of Ukraine War on EU especially Germany.
Please post a link if you find it.

[Pratyush]

There is link to a RAND report on what will be outcome of Ukraine War on EU especially Germany.
Please post a link if you find it.

https://www.rand.org/blog/2023/07/the-w ... gmire.html

Published on June 27, 2023

The Afghanistan examples are not unique in war. After years of heavy losses, Germany agreed to an armistice and ultimately surrendered after its 1918 offensive failed. American forces were not defeated in Vietnam. The American public turned against what they perceived as a quagmire. The Soviet army was not driven out of Afghanistan, nor were American troops. They were withdrawn from a contest that had cost too much and gone on too long.

Is this what you are referring to?

[YashG]

there are russian flags in burkina and niger gatherings. Somehow africans find some resonance with russians against the west. Ukraine was has probably sown seeds of a growing movement of de-westernisation of global thought process.

West has lost so much political capital in this war along with actual money. UK which is in recession list 0.3 pc of its gdp in ukraine in hard cash!

lol they could have used to post better gdp numbers for itself atleast if nothing else. UK is in considerable meltdown from its colonial past - they cant see themselves being insignificant global player. Too much cope.

[Pratyush]

This is early days. Western resolve and bloody mindedness should not be underestimated.

[YashG]

This is early days. Western resolve and bloody mindedness should not be underestimated.

They will keep committing for sure but not in same measure. When US, UK and EU got into this gamble they were not in recession. Germany is in recession (not official yet) , UK is posting near 0 GDP growth & US is also growing less. SO they will play this gamble but not with as large a best as they did. Their support has culminated. Sure they will produce plenty of 155 mm shells but not have as much artillery, tanks & cruise missiles to gift. On the other hand if tea leaves are to be read - Russia's arms production and war ops are on the uprise.

US has significantly lost focus from indo-pacific due to its involvement in US. One of these months - US will suddenly rise up to the reality of reducing influence in indo-pacific. Indo pacific is the only center of economic growth in the wold rn.

[JE Menon]

Thanks Nanda, Najunakumar, IndraD & Cyrano... Much appreciated.

[JE Menon]

Article on the Ukraine situation by Brahma Chellaney in "The Hill" - unusual location for this write up from him.

https://thehill.com/opinion/internation ... s-failing/

[vijayk]

https://compactmag.com/article/america- ... ing-europe
America Is Deindustrializing Europe

[Pratyush]

Another brilliant article from the website linked by VijayK.

https://compactmag.com/article/america-owns-germany

Written by Peter Hutchins

February 21, 2023

It's worth reading in full. But i will quote some excerpts from the article to increase curiosity.

About the destruction of Nord stream.

The most interesting question is whether it was aimed mainly against Russia, or mainly, through Russia, against Germany. Some might see in this crude piece of destruction a warning to Berlin, that it is not as important or as independent as it thinks it is. If it wants any relations with Russia, it will have to have only those that Washington permits.

Again about German and Russian relationship.

the two great European wars of the 20th century were essentially Russo-German conflicts, in which what are now Ukraine, Belarus, Poland, and the Baltic States were the main field of battle. The parade in Brest-Litovsk that celebrated the defeat of Poland in 1940 was a joint affair, in which Red Army and Wehrmacht officers together took the salute from German and Soviet soldiers.

About the intellectual underpinnings of the EU.

I am reminded, by such things and by the general shape and nature of the modern European Union, of the brilliant scheme put forward by Imperial Germany’s subtle foreign minister, Richard von Kuehlmann, in 1917 and 1918: “limited sovereignty.” It was a key feature of the unwisely forgotten 1918 Peace of Brest-Litovsk, which so very nearly decided the shape of modern Europe. And as the Great War historian Fritz Fischer explained, it placed a bomb under the old Russian Empire by offering Petrograd’s subject nations all the baubles of independence. But “Germany’s aim was not to confer independence and national liberty on Poland, Lithuania, Courland, Livonia, Estonia, and the Ukraine, but on the contrary to fetter them closely to the German Reich and to Mitteleuropa by treaties which were only nominally international personal unions, economic and customs unions, and military conventions.”

A deeper reflection on the passage linked above will also reflect on the origins of the conflict in Ukraine from the POV of Ukrainian nationalism in the current context.

Now coming to the nub of the article.

I go into all this because the odd—and so far successful—relationship between Berlin and Washington has shown grave strains during the Ukraine crisis. Berlin wants a stable, prosperous Europe largely under its control. But Russia can never be part of this, though Germany, understandably, remains deeply interested in influencing events in Russia and in exploiting its economy. This means compromise with Moscow, and major trade with Russia. It has meant the creation of the Nord Stream pipelines between Russia and Germany.

Following passages will be deeply interesting for JEM.

But Washington seems to want a confrontation with Russia, and has chosen Ukraine as its site. Instead of being content with a largely peaceful and prosperous Continent, some strategists in Washington appear to have a policy of aggressively marginalizing and perhaps diminishing Russia. This has been especially active since 2008, when NATO almost split over the suggestion that Ukraine should be offered membership.

having shaken Yanukovych’s hand. Did the US deplore the deal’s collapse, or welcome it? Who can say?

But the United States, which has for many years used German power to stabilize Europe, is now pursuing a quite different objective. Germany matters less. France matters hardly at all.

Snip.....

How very odd it is that American power, which was used so effectively for so long to keep Europe free from conflict, is now being used to extend and deepen the worst European war for nearly 80 years.

The why of US motivation is more important than anything. But the answer eludes most people.

Could it be, that what the US is seeking is a wish fulfilment of fantasies of 2 and 3 generation Ukranian and Polish nationalists. Who escaped from Poland and Ukraine during and after the second world war and have ingratiated themselves in the foreign policy establishment of USA.

The neocon cabal of USA seems to filled with such people.

[YashG]

Im amazed sometimes by the echo chambers people live in US.



Hear the former US ambassador saying that China attending the recent ukrainian lead peace summit paid by the saudis means China is chipping away from Russia. While Russia and China do a freedom of navigation sail near alaska together. Ridiculous!

[sanman]

Are the Russians getting ready to resume nuclear testing?

Can they just do that?
Aren't there treaties to be considered? Are they going to withdraw from those?



https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/secur ... -test-site

Nukes have always been Pak's key defense - its way of leveling the playing field (besides terrorism), when it can't compete in other areas of military competition.
Even North Korea likewise likes to launch missiles and test bombs in order to shake up the West and send strong signals that it should be taken seriously
Likewise, Russia is at a disadvantage in competing with the West militarily.
Would it therefore fall back on nuclear testing as its form of muscle-flexing, to pressure the West?

Also, how would China feel about this?
Would they use the opportunity to test, too? Would North Korea do so?
If such tests were to happen, then shouldn't we also test?

[Pratyush]

Are the Russians getting ready to resume nuclear testing?

Can they just do that?
Aren't there treaties to be considered? Are they going to withdraw from those?

Yes, they can do it.

A nation has the right to withdraw from any treaty it has signed.

[Manish_P]

Are the Russians getting ready to resume nuclear testing?

Can they just do that?
Aren't there treaties to be considered? Are they going to withdraw from those?

..

U.S. Withdraws From Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty

[drnayar]

Russia would test indeed.. when they talk about poseidons and nuclear tsunamis what better than a Tsar bomba type spectacle.. shackinaw

[tandav]

Ukraine and Russia war is in my view a good a preview of how a War between India and China will progress.

India like Ukraine is dependent on imports for its armed forces, China produces its own. Let's learn the hard lessons now and prepare accordingly.

[Cyrano]

This "Russia will test N weapons again" is a western media bogey. When you have more warheads than anyone else and hypersonic missiles that cant be stopped, then whats the need for tests? It only gets some negative reactions from a bunch of neutral/friendly nations and allows the west to scare its people further "See we told you Putin is a mad man" , besides spurring a round of tit for tat tests that will further mess up the current balances of power, precarious as they are. The west has to learn to let sleeping dogs lie...

[sanman]

Yes, they can do it.

A nation has the right to withdraw from any treaty it has signed.

U.S. Withdraws From Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty

Russia would test indeed.. when they talk about poseidons and nuclear tsunamis what better than a Tsar bomba type spectacle.. shackinaw

Ukraine and Russia war is in my view a good a preview of how a War between India and China will progress.

India like Ukraine is dependent on imports for its armed forces, China produces its own. Let's learn the hard lessons now and prepare accordingly.

Ukraine is forced to rely on conventional weapons, because it has no nuclear deterrent.

This "Russia will test N weapons again" is a western media bogey. When you have more warheads than anyone else and hypersonic missiles that cant be stopped, then whats the need for tests? It only gets some negative reactions from a bunch of neutral/friendly nations and allows the west to scare its people further "See we told you Putin is a mad man" , besides spurring a round of tit for tat tests that will further mess up the current balances of power, precarious as they are. The west has to learn to let sleeping dogs lie...

RT is a Russian news source:

https://twitter.com/RT_com/status/1690543697124020225

The fact is that Russia is not being taken seriously by the US/West, who are preparing to arm Kyiv with longer range strategic missiles. Once in place, these could easily be used as a prelude to equipping them with US warheads. That's why Russia is itself threatening to test.

Indian defences would benefit tremendously from taking the opportunity to advance our nuclear deterrent capabilities through testing, which would yield much more powerful and more miniaturizable weaponry.

If the opportunity becomes available, we can and should take it.

[drnayar]

totally agree ., once china starts testing., India should as well., this time go the whole hog from neutron weapons to fusion . Western "powers" should support India in curtailing the Chinese threat.

[Cyrano]

Please try to lay out why and what India needs to test in the deterrence thread. If you haven't been reading that thread, please do.

[JE Menon]

Thanks Pratyush for the link on Germany. Very useful read.

>>The why of US motivation is more important than anything. But the answer eludes most people.

Actually, I'm quite certain that the answer does not elude them. What they have a difficulty with is saying it out loud. Basically:

Sometime in the 1990s (probably towards the latter half), the US/UK and other Anglosphere elites decided that the future challenge is China, and it can only be fought against if Russia was broken up into parts with the constituent parts under Anglo-American control. I am fairly certain that the UK had a much deeper influence on this change than its "poodle" status (well cultivated I might add) might suggest. It has infected the US with Empire Thinking and the result is what we have now. Brzezinski wrote the Grand Chessboard in 1997, and the present day on the ground situation reflects its collapse. I have a strong sense that the Russians realised this long ago, and prepared for it. You will note that in many of their comments they refer to "Anglo-Saxon"; it is their way of referring to the Anglosphere, and they single out the Brits a lot, and have done so especially over the past year and a half.

[fanne]

Thanks Pratyush for the link on Germany. Very useful read.

>>The why of US motivation is more important than anything. But the answer eludes most people.

Actually, I'm quite certain that the answer does not elude them. What they have a difficulty with is saying it out loud. Basically:

Sometime in the 1990s (probably towards the latter half), the US/UK and other Anglosphere elites decided that the future challenge is China, and it can only be fought against if Russia was broken up into parts with the constituent parts under Anglo-American control. I am fairly certain that the UK had a much deeper influence on this change than its "poodle" status (well cultivated I might add) might suggest. It has infected the US with Empire Thinking and the result is what we have now. Brzezinski wrote the Grand Chessboard in 1997, and the present day on the ground situation reflects its collapse. I have a strong sense that the Russians realised this long ago, and prepared for it. You will note that in many of their comments they refer to "Anglo-Saxon"; it is their way of referring to the Anglosphere, and they single out the Brits a lot, and have done so especially over the past year and a half.

If what you say is true, and they are indeed playing this long gme, what they have in store for us? The one crown jewel that slipped from their hand?

[sanman]

Thanks Pratyush for the link on Germany. Very useful read.

>>The why of US motivation is more important than anything. But the answer eludes most people.

Actually, I'm quite certain that the answer does not elude them. What they have a difficulty with is saying it out loud. Basically:

Sometime in the 1990s (probably towards the latter half), the US/UK and other Anglosphere elites decided that the future challenge is China, and it can only be fought against if Russia was broken up into parts with the constituent parts under Anglo-American control. I am fairly certain that the UK had a much deeper influence on this change than its "poodle" status (well cultivated I might add) might suggest. It has infected the US with Empire Thinking and the result is what we have now. Brzezinski wrote the Grand Chessboard in 1997, and the present day on the ground situation reflects its collapse. I have a strong sense that the Russians realised this long ago, and prepared for it. You will note that in many of their comments they refer to "Anglo-Saxon"; it is their way of referring to the Anglosphere, and they single out the Brits a lot, and have done so especially over the past year and a half.

I don't think that's what's happening at all. What's happening is a revival of ancient wars associated with the Catholic-Orthodox schism from 1000 years ago. Catholic side is led by institutionalized Washington, while Orthodox side is led by Russia.

[JE Menon]

>>If what you say is true, and they are indeed playing this long gme, what they have in store for us? The one crown jewel that slipped from their hand?

The same thing. Revert to a colonial mentality but for the 21st century and beyond. Engineer chaos in Eurasia (including India) and then pick up the pieces and exploit them, while the Anglosphere sits aside separated by water - with immunity from direct land attack & impunity from consequence - and divides to rule. The Brits - unlike the Germans & Japanese - have never had to pay a price for their colonial depredations, which is why they tell us now that it was a good thing for us. (Ditto for the French, but that's only in Africa - and they are in Eurasia with limited capacity to engage in Eurasian games except as a second fiddle to the Anglosphere, which is what they are doing now).

[JE Menon]

>>What's happening is a revival of ancient wars associated with the Catholic-Orthodox schism from 1000 years ago. Catholic side is led by institutionalized Washington, while Orthodox side is led by Russia.

Faith sub-system variation is clearly a differentiator, but I don't think that is what is driving the Eurasian thrust by the Anglosphere. It is resources, old-fashioned greed.

[JE Menon]

>>What's happening is a revival of ancient wars associated with the Catholic-Orthodox schism from 1000 years ago. Catholic side is led by institutionalized Washington, while Orthodox side is led by Russia.

Faith sub-system variation is clearly a differentiator, but I don't think that is what is driving the Eurasian thrust by the Anglosphere. It is resources, old-fashioned greed.

[Tanaji]

Stoltenberg has recently stated that Ukraine can trade land for Nato membership. What a climbdown!