Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

srai · Post by **srai** » 24 Feb 2024 05:07

With long ranged SAM, AWACS are no longer safe.

There are reports of a second A-50 shot down. So far, Russia has lost 3 x A-50: one to a drone attack on an airbase in Belarus and two shot down by SAM (Patriot most likely) near the Azov Sea.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 24 Feb 2024 08:04

srai wrote: ↑24 Feb 2024 05:07 With long ranged SAM, AWACS are no longer safe.

There are reports of a second A-50 shot down. So far, Russia has lost 3 x A-50: one to a drone attack on an airbase in Belarus and two shot down by SAM (Patriot most likely) near the Azov Sea.

Either the Patriot's max-range has been heavily understated or the Russians were flying those A-50's way too close to Ukrainian airspace. Perhaps a result of the limitations of the Vega-M radar on the A-50's or the RWR-ESM equipment which should warn the crew about being tracked by a SAM radar. Ideally you'd expect the radar to pick up the missile launch itself even if the RWR doesn't detect a TWS lock.

srai · Post by **srai** » 24 Feb 2024 16:07

Looks like two SAMs attacked the A-50. One missed and the second one hit it. A-50 was launching a lot of countermeasures in flares (and probably chaff).

Various theories: S-200 SAM, SF MANPADs or friendly fire.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 25 Feb 2024 02:48

Damn. 3 awacs lost. If that happened to desh in a 2 front war, we'd be up a creek.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 25 Feb 2024 06:49

srai wrote: ↑24 Feb 2024 16:07 Looks like two SAMs attacked the A-50. One missed and the second one hit it. A-50 was launching a lot of countermeasures in flares (and probably chaff).

Various theories: S-200 SAM, SF MANPADs or friendly fire.

Can't really tell much from the video but the aircraft appears to be at a relatively lower altitude. So this must have happened just after takeoff or just prior to landing. They mention Sea of Azov and Krasnodar region but that is a large area. Can't really see a Ukrainian S-200 being close enough to shoot down an AWACS there unless the aircraft was on the other side of the sea close to Mariupol or thereabouts and not Krasnodar. But then why would it be at a low altitude? This could very well be friendly fire from Russian SAM's which were trying to engage Ukrainian drones. Would make the whole thing even more shameful for the Russians.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 25 Feb 2024 07:01

Some Russians are saying Ukrainians fired some missiles in the area and S400 system while engaging those missiles also engaged and shot down the A 50

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 25 Feb 2024 07:07

Talking about Ukrainian Sea drone attacks, I noticed the IN uses the RBS 60 anti Submarine rocket, in addition to Barak 1 plus CIWS. Whereas the Russians have the Shitil plus Ciws, both of which struggle against these drone coming low height boats. I guess if the Russians install the RBS 60 on thier ships they will be in a much better position to deal with these drone boats.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 25 Feb 2024 12:19

Aditya_V wrote: ↑25 Feb 2024 07:01 Some Russians are saying Ukrainians fired some missiles in the area and S400 system while engaging those missiles also engaged and shot down the A 50

If so this a far bigger IFF mix-up than the one we had on Feb 27 2019 with the Mi-17 shot down. At least in our case it was an Israeli SAM and a Russian chopper. The Russians here don't even have that excuse.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 25 Feb 2024 12:53

Aditya_V wrote: ↑25 Feb 2024 07:07 Talking about Ukrainian Sea drone attacks, I noticed the IN uses the RBS 60 anti Submarine rocket, in addition to Barak 1 plus CIWS. Whereas the Russians have the Shitil plus Ciws, both of which struggle against these drone coming low height boats. I guess if the Russians install the RBS 60 on thier ships they will be in a much better position to deal with these drone boats.

The best way of dealing with drone boats is to engage them with a rapid fire weapons with large capacity magazine and capable of operating with greater than - 30 degrees of negative elevation. Coupled with a fire control system capable of keeping up with a rapidly evolving threat picture.

The RBS an unguided system and as such is incapable of precision engagement. Second, I am not sure that the FCS can adapt to a fast moving small target. Third, a successful engagement from such a system will wash out Sonar picture of the surrounding area because of the noise of the warhead explosion. Thereby reducing the defenders ability to deal with subsequent boats till the Sonar picture clears.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 25 Feb 2024 16:45

The problem these Drone boats look pretty heavy and on water. A missile hit by CIWS will loose some of its aerodynamic configuration . But unless a CIWS fires incendiary rounds, I doubt it blow up these Drone boats. The other option is engaging them with LWT or HWTs.

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 25 Feb 2024 17:35

‘Russia Has Capacity To Defend Its Strategic Interests’

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tbsQPFegP4g

Google summary:

The video is about the second anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine war and its global implications. The speaker, MJ Akbar, is an author, thinker, and journalist.

The speaker argues that the West has underestimated Russia's capacity to defend its strategic interests. He points to the fact that Russia has a long history of defending itself against invaders, and that it has the resources and military capability to do so again. He also argues that the West has made a mistake in relying on Ukraine to fight its war against Russia, as Ukraine is not a sustainable long-term opponent.

The speaker also discusses the role of other countries in the conflict, such as the UK and Iran. He argues that the UK is no longer a major player on the world stage, and that Iran is using the conflict to expand its own influence in the region.

Overall, the speaker's view is that the West has made a number of mistakes in its handling of the Russia-Ukraine war, and that these mistakes could have serious consequences for the global order.

Here are some key points from the video:

Russia has a long history of defending itself against invaders.
Russia has the resources and military capability to defend its strategic interests.
The West has made a mistake in relying on Ukraine to fight its war against Russia.
The UK is no longer a major player on the world stage.
Iran is using the conflict to expand its own influence in the region.
I hope this summary is helpful!

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 25 Feb 2024 17:57

Russia Has Produced More Combat Jets than It Lost in Ukraine in 2023

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYxdHX8l-PA

Google summary

This video talks about how many combat jets Russia produced and lost in 2023, and also gives an estimation for 2024.

In 2023, Russia likely lost 18 planes to enemy fire, 7 to non-combat accidents and 12-15 damaged planes. On the other hand, Russia produced 29 to 40 combat airplanes. So, Russia likely replenished its Air Force numbers by a tiny margin in 2023.

It's important to note that these numbers are estimates, as it's difficult to get precise information about the number of planes lost or produced during wartime.

Here are some of the sources that the video uses:

orix - a website that tracks photos of wreckages and uses claims by various parties to identify planes
War spotting - a website that also tracks photos and videos of planes and is more conservative in its counting than orix
The video also mentions that Russia is likely to continue producing more planes in 2024, and that it may be on track to cover both the 2022 and 2023 losses within a few years. However, it is also noted that Russia may be flying less and not venturing as close to the front line, as it did in 2022.

I hope this summary is helpful!

srai · Post by **srai** » 26 Feb 2024 02:17

^^^
The lesson for the Indian Armed Forces is the one who can sustain the replenishment of their losses has the best odds emerging as a victor over a long period of time.

India needs to order its indigenous products in a big way: larger quantities to maintain an industrial capacity. Hodgepodge of various mix-and-match with long dry spells ain’t going to win any wars. It’s not like order today get it tomorrow; there are long lead-times of 3 or more years. Can’t let production lines sit idle. Fresh orders take time and so with ramp up.

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 26 Feb 2024 08:37

Ukraine Drafting 500K MORE MEN To Serve In LOSING War Against Russia

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0JkRiFRLOWY

Google summary

The video is about Ukraine drafting more people to fight in the war against Russia.

The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, is considering dismissing the country's top military commander, Valeriy Zaluzhny. Zelensky is reportedly unhappy with Zaluzhny's assessment of the war and his belief that Ukraine cannot win.

The United States is considering sending more military aid to Ukraine, but there is growing opposition to this among some members of Congress.

The video also discusses the role of the Dia app, a Ukrainian banking app that has been criticized for being used by the government to track people's movements and freeze their assets.

srai · Post by **srai** » 26 Feb 2024 13:35

^^^
Old news and speculation at this point.

Both sides are going to have to draft more people to fight on.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 26 Feb 2024 14:45

Do the Ukrainians have enough weapons to equip 500k men? Or the combined western world has enough equipment to arm a 500 k army?

srai · Post by **srai** » 26 Feb 2024 14:59

^^^
A lot of people are needed for frontline rotation. Not all at the frontline at the same time. Those not injured or dead will also need to be relieved as they have served out their tenure.

A lot of people are also required for back logistics and manning areas not considered frontlines.

Need plenty of reserves too both for sustainment and rapid expansion when required.

srai · Post by **srai** » 26 Feb 2024 18:22

This is from WW1 rest and rotation

…

Soldiers did not spend all of their time fighting in the trenches or preparing for battle. There was leisure time, especially when soldiers rotated to the rear areas.

Rotation in and out of the Trenches

Soldiers rotated into and out of the front lines to provide a break from the stress of combat. They spent four to six days in the front trenches before moving back and spending an equal number of days in the secondary and, finally, the reserve trenches. This system of rotation, along with occasional leave to England, prevented many soldiers from breaking down.

Relaxation in a YMCA Hut

There was more free time in the rear areas, even though soldiers were ordered to train and provide work parties for the front. When not engaged in these activities, soldiers could idle away hours in a YMCA hut, often the centre of a soldier’s social life. The huts provided a quiet space in the daytime to catch up on reading and writing, and a gathering space for concerts or lectures in the evening.

Sports for Healthy Stress Relief

Sports also relieved the stress of war and the monotony of soldiering. The army saw sports as good for morale, fitness, and keeping soldiers out of trouble. The soldiers loved their games, baseball most of all.
…

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 26 Feb 2024 18:26

Average age of Russian conscript in Ukraine is 34. Regular Russian soldier is 18-27.
Average age of Ukrainian soldier is 43.

Without direct US & European involvement, regardless of billions of dollars, Ukraine will be divided.

srai · Post by **srai** » 26 Feb 2024 18:50

Each side bleeding the other … who will bleed out faster?

An entire generation of young people lost to both countries (and recruits from other countries).

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 26 Feb 2024 21:30

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/176 ... 97950?s=20 ---> First US-supplied M1A1 Abrams MBT in Ukrainian service seen damaged/destroyed. Blowout panels can be seen deployed.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 27 Feb 2024 01:06

Renewed talks of taking Ukraine in Nato are confusing> is Nato ready for a nuclear apocalypse for illusionary Russia disintegration? https://www.ft.com/content/3f7fd1cf-56f ... 9d76fd1e9c
[ several Nato and EU members considering sending soldiers to Ukraine, Slovak PM claims https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... -zelenskiy]
Last heard frontlines are collapsing, and US is convinced 2 wars can't be supported .
Hence Netanyahu is under severe pressure and ceasefire can be reached any moment (what happens to hostages no one knows).
Cutting long story short Nato is hell bent on fighting Ru for reasons only they understand well and the rest of West is simply wagging tail behind them
(Of late even Hungary has kowtowed and agreed for Sweden entry into Nato https://apnews.com/article/hungary-rati ... 0Ukraine.0

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 28 Feb 2024 15:15

The Spy War: How the C.I.A. Secretly Helps Ukraine Fight Putin
For more than a decade, the United States has nurtured a secret intelligence partnership with Ukraine that is now critical for both countries in countering Russia.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/25/worl ... a-war.html
https://archive.ph/gL6EC

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 28 Feb 2024 18:07

Leaked Russian military files reveal criteria for nuclear strike
https://www.ft.com/content/f18e6e1f-5c3 ... a730b306b7
27 Feb 2024

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 28 Feb 2024 21:35

Rakesh wrote: ↑28 Feb 2024 18:07 Leaked Russian military files reveal criteria for nuclear strike
https://www.ft.com/content/f18e6e1f-5c3 ... a730b306b7
27 Feb 2024

https://archive.ph/cqcrn
another deep state gloating or trying to provoke Ru into using nuke? With no exit in sight west will become more desperate
most of this frustration will be seen in their main stream media in form of 'spies steal documents' 'Putin no more' 'Russia has fallen apart' 'time for Z to become Putin'
etc

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 28 Feb 2024 21:39

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 28 Feb 2024 23:19

I thought one of mine had absconded.

(Who’s Taylor Swift? ).

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 29 Feb 2024 01:12

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 29 Feb 2024 03:02

G D Bakshi gives his assessment of the war:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RDNQ5_NCuOY

Google summary

The video discusses the potential for the war in Ukraine to escalate into World War 3, with G.D. Bakshi, a military historian and analyst, offering his perspective.

Arguments against escalation:

Nuclear deterrence: Both Russia and the US possess nuclear weapons, making a full-scale war between them highly unlikely due to the potential for mutually assured destruction (MAD).
Limited objectives: Russia's stated goals in Ukraine seem focused on securing the Donbas region and establishing a neutral Ukraine, not conquering all of Europe.
Western caution: NATO countries are providing military aid to Ukraine but are cautious about direct military involvement, which could escalate the conflict.
Arguments for potential escalation:

Miscalculation or accident: Unforeseen events like mistaken attacks or misunderstandings could lead to a wider war.
Increased involvement of major powers: If NATO countries become directly involved in the conflict, or if Russia attacks a NATO member state, it could trigger a wider war.
Domestic pressures: Leaders in Russia and Ukraine might feel pressured by internal political dynamics to escalate the conflict.
The video concludes that while the risk of World War 3 cannot be entirely ruled out, it is not the most likely scenario. Continued international pressure, diplomacy, and a measured approach from all parties involved are crucial to preventing further escalation and finding a peaceful resolution to the conflict.

It is important to note that this is just one perspective on a complex and evolving situation. It is crucial to stay informed through credible news sources and avoid relying solely on social media or age-restricted content.

I hope this summary is helpful and accurate. Please let me know if you have any other questions.

pravula · Post by **pravula** » 29 Feb 2024 05:51

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news ... af-scholz/

British soldiers in Ukraine helping fire missiles, Olaf Scholz reveals

This is as official as it comes.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 29 Feb 2024 23:40

multiple pieces in west
Ukraine has downed all the Russian fighter jets in the last week
and now Russia is without airforce https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2 ... th-spiral/

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 01 Mar 2024 11:58

How difficult would it be for the Russians to install anti radiation seekers on the Shahid type drones. Send them over the battlefield and let the Ukrainians try to bring them down.

srai · Post by **srai** » 01 Mar 2024 12:49

^^^
Like Israeli Harop

srai · Post by **srai** » 01 Mar 2024 16:41

2024 will be Drone War …

Ukraine’s drone production reached 200,000 FPV units in early 2024

Ukraine has produced approximately 200,000 FPV drones in January and February 2024, Hanna Hvozdiar, Deputy Minister of Strategic Industries, said in an interview with Forbes Ukraine.

With the US and EU aid packages delayed, Ukraine is ramping up the production of one-way attack suicide” drones to compensate for the lack of artillery shells at the front, the Ukrainian Deputy Defense Ministry said.

During his press conference on 19 December, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Ukraine would manufacture one million drones in 2024, referring specifically to FPV drones.

According to Hvozdiar, Ukraine’s production capabilities are set to reach 2 million drones of various types, including FPV, this year.

Hvozdiar also revealed that new types of FPV drones, such as “wing” drones and lightweight reconnaissance drones akin to the Mavic, are currently under development.

Ukraine’s Digital Minister Mykhailo Fedorov told Reuters that Ukraine aims to produce thousands of long-range drones capable of striking deep into Russia in 2024.

According to Fedorov, in 2023, 58 Ukrainian drone manufacturers received state contracts. Overall, there are more than 200 Ukrainian companies operating in the UAV market, offering drones or related services and products.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 04 Mar 2024 02:40

Germany spills British military secrets to Russia
The intercepted call, using off-the-shelf video phone technology, marks one of Germany’s worst security breaches since the Cold War

https://archive.ph/KVRD2
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... aine-nato/

Germany accidentally leaked British military secrets to Russia by using off-the-shelf video phone technology to discuss missiles in Ukraine.

The head of the Luftwaffe told air force officers and a general who dialled in from his hotel room how British and French officials were delivering Storm Shadows to Ukrainian soldiers.

He also said British troops were “on the ground”, a highly sensitive detail that has already caused division and infighting among Nato allies.

Recordings of the call were broadcast by a Russian state television executive. The Kremlin maintains that Nato troops on the ground represent a serious provocation.

In the call, Ingo Gerhartz, the Luftwaffe air force Lieutenant General, discusses the possible delivery of German Taurus missiles, which have a longer range and are more precise than Storm Shadows.

It comes after he suggested last week that British troops were in Ukraine helping to fire Storm Shadow missiles. Emmanuel Macron had earlier faced a backlash from Nato allies for suggesting troops could be sent to Ukraine in a limited capacity

srai · Post by **srai** » 04 Mar 2024 16:12

IndraD wrote: ↑29 Feb 2024 23:40 multiple pieces in west
Ukraine has downed all the Russian fighter jets in the last week
and now Russia is without airforce https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2 ... th-spiral/

Over a 2-week window:
10 x Su-34
2 x Su-35
1 x A-50

Apparently, Ukraine masking the movements of Patriot and NASAM batteries. Constantly moving few of them forward to areas where Russian aircrafts very active and then moving them back.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 04 Mar 2024 16:33

Old fashioned Sam traps.

High flying jets are seen from longer distance. The fire control system is kept powered up, but not emitting.

The message comes from ew system. The fire control emits to acquire target. Shoots missiles and then scoots away. Before any Russian reprisal.

Not very a new tactic. Russians based on own emphasis on IADS, should know how to beat this tactic.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 04 Mar 2024 17:39

Generally, When Russian Aircraft go down , there are mobile videos of locals showing the pics. In this case there is little evidence. The West- Ukraine dominate the information space and any Russian loss is well publicized with pics. In this case we know Russian Fabs have caused huge casualties to the Ukrainians. However, there is very little evidence of Shooting soo many Russian Aircraft in such a short time presented.

And Fighter Aircraft is something West is very proud off, so far I am a bit skeptical of these recent Russian Aircraft shootdowns.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 04 Mar 2024 18:21

Lots of BS from the losing side...

Roop · Post by **Roop** » 05 Mar 2024 11:22

Cyrano wrote: ↑04 Mar 2024 18:21 Lots of BS from the losing side...

Yes, that is my impression as well. At the end of the day, people can decide for themselves who they want to believe, but I think NATO and the Ukes are trying to sell a lot of BS here.