Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

[hgupta]

^^^
F-16s are coming. First batch will be in Ukraine in July-2024. Ukrainian AF have been training for a year now in various EU countries, including Romania.

There are plenty of F-16s in EU (over 200) and it is very likely most of them will end up in Ukraine over this decade.

And the Russian factories have gone in overdrive. They will produce more combat planes and missiles. Not only that they are definitely building more AWACs using their new IL planes.

[srai]

^^^
Sure they have. Same is with the other side.

MIC clear winner.

[IndraD]

[srai]

Energy war

So far Ukrainian long range drones have attacked 12 refineries that output 10% of Russian overall capacity. Many thousands of LR drones are in production in Ukraine.



Prepare to pay more at the pump!

[srai]

Looks like Russia will be paying indirectly to Ukraine for their war effort …

Bloomberg: US proposes $50 billion bond to support Ukraine with frozen Russian assets

…
According to Bloomberg, the proposal aims to pool the $280 billion of Russian central bank assets frozen by G7 countries and the EU, using the profits to back the so-called freedom bonds.
…

More than two-thirds of Russia’s frozen assets are in the EU, generating around $3.6 billion in net profits annually.

…

[drnayar]

Looks like Russia will be paying indirectly to Ukraine for their war effort …

Bloomberg: US proposes $50 billion bond to support Ukraine with frozen Russian assets

…
According to Bloomberg, the proposal aims to pool the $280 billion of Russian central bank assets frozen by G7 countries and the EU, using the profits to back the so-called freedom bonds.
…

More than two-thirds of Russia’s frozen assets are in the EU, generating around $3.6 billion in net profits annually.

…

Now who would blame anyone if they developed a non US financial system and their national currency barters.. its plain highway robbery of many magnitudes more. US can well call itself the Robber Nation, shorn of all civility

[IndraD]

massive terror attack at Moscow concert hall several gunmen in military fatigues
dozens dead.

[hgupta]

Russia needs to close its borders with Finland, Baltic States, and Ukraine and force Belarussia to close its borders too.

[Mukesh.Kumar]

Major terrorist attack in Moscow. Casualties unknown. Still counting

[Mukesh.Kumar]

At least 40b dead. 100 plus wounded.

https://on.rt.com/cqvw

[sanman]

Al-Jazeera reporting that ISIL is claiming responsibility for the attack on Moscow

I find this hard to believe.

The Russians have already taken at least one gunman into custody, so they'll soon get to the bottom of this.

From what I see, this is like Nord Stream, but more personal.

Didn't Victoria Nuland promise that Russia would soon get a surprise?

[bala]

Isn't ISIL a morphed ISIS? If so, the then US President Donald J Trump decimated them in no time. ISIS is a creation of Hillary Clinton and Obummer.

[sanman]

This was no ISIS attack. Westerners are quickly scrambling to pin blame on ISIS. Methinks they doth protest too much.

Assorted "experts" are claiming this attack was because Russia has been cooperating with Taliban against ISIS-K. But even the US has been cooperating with Taliban against ISIS-K, since ISIS-K are basically the reconstituted elements of the now defunct AlQaeda terror group, and were responsible for the bombing that killed 13 US marines at Kabul airport.
So I don't think that ISIS offshoot is responsible for this attack, which has been organized at the behest of others. Victoria Nuland did say Russia was in for a "surprise" when she left.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DEtJV54rSx4

Only the NeoCons are motivated enough and reckless enough to do something like this. As the Romans said, "Cui bono?" - "Who profits?"

My suspicion is that this attack is a follow-up to that attack in Iran a couple of months back:

https://apnews.com/article/kerman-us-wa ... 4868c8399c

Then too, the blame was quickly laid at the feet of ISIS.

But we saw Iran quickly retaliate against Pakistan soon after. Because Iran knew where the attack really came from: the same Pak that Nuland had been visiting.

Now with this attack on Moscow, we again see the same ISIS bogeyman being raised.

I think that Israel (along with its NeoCon supporters) feel that Hamas did not pull off Oct 7 alone, and had Iranian sponsorship/help.
I also think that Israel (along with its NeoCon supporters) feel that Iran could not have dared to participate in such a bold gambit without Russian approval.

Therefore bombing attack in Iran was the first retaliation for Oct 7.
And now this attack on Moscow is the second retaliation. The dropping of the other shoe.
That's why young concert-goers were particularly targeted in this attack.

[srai]

^^^
Too much speculation and conspiracy theories at this point.

[drnayar]

Al-Jazeera reporting that ISIL is claiming responsibility for the attack on Moscow

I find this hard to believe.

The Russians have already taken at least one gunman into custody, so they'll soon get to the bottom of this.

From what I see, this is like Nord Stream, but more personal.

Didn't Victoria Nuland promise that Russia would soon get a surprise?

Won't be surprised when us gets one as well..

[Deans]

I am following Russian news since I speak Russian. The Russians have captured several gunmen alive. A couple of preliminary interrogations were
shown on TV. They are Tadjik and Syrian, but the (Syrian) leader seems to have lived in Ukraine and was part of a group that recently crossed into Russian with the Ukraine army, for a cross border raid. They were caught after a shootout, when their car was stopped trying to flee to Ukraine.
They were all trained men, arms planted in advance.
11 men in all, 4 did the shooting. at least 1 was captured at the attack site in Moscow.
It seems to be a Ukraine organised plot with the blessing of CIA. The Syrians / Tadjiks give plausibility that it was ISIS.

[Deans]

https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2024/03/uk ... years.html

Part 7 of my blog series on the Ukraine war.
For those who haven't read, I post original data based analysis on the war, without politics. I follow both Russian and Western sources and try to
reconcile both.

[A_Gupta]

The US claims:

The United States has intelligence confirming Islamic State's claim of responsibility for the shooting, a U.S. official said. The official, speaking on condition of anonymity said Washington had warned Moscow "appropriately" in recent weeks of the possibility of an attack.

Friday's attack, about 20 km (12 miles) from the Kremlin, happened two weeks after the U.S. embassy in Russia warned that "extremists" had imminent plans for an attack in Moscow.

Hours before the embassy warning, the FSB said it had foiled an attack on a Moscow synagogue by Islamic State's affiliate in Afghanistan, known as ISIS-Khorasan or ISIS-K, which seeks a caliphate across Afghanistan, Pakistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Iran.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/tw ... 024-03-23/

[A Deshmukh]

It seems to be a Ukraine organised plot with the blessing of CIA. The Syrians / Tadjiks give plausibility that it was ISIS.

Thanks Deans. We find your blogs and information most valuable and reliable.
What do you think would be the impact/reaction?
one obviously - the ceasefire hopes goes for a toss, with more punishment on Ukraine.
Wonder what the talk between Zelensky+Modi and Putin+Modi was all about?
What will be the retaliation by Rus on US?
They did not seem to react on the gas pipelines or confiscation of assets....but that was commercial. And they recovered commercially.
US seems to be itching for an escalation?
(handing over a inextractible minefield to Trump?).

[Deans]

Update from Russian news:

133 dead. About 15 more critical.
Some died because the roof fell in (speculation about poor construction?), others from smoke, when they hid in toilets etc.
Fast response from emergency teams - incl. fire fighting helicopters and trauma doctors.
So far, 11 believed to be responsible, captured alive incl. all 4 `shooters'.
One of those captured (from Tadjikstan) said he did it for money - approx. $ 6k. All communication by telegram.

[Deans]

[Thanks Deans. We find your blogs and information most valuable and reliable.
What do you think would be the impact/reaction?
one obviously - the ceasefire hopes goes for a toss, with more punishment on Ukraine.
Wonder what the talk between Zelensky+Modi and Putin+Modi was all about?
What will be the retaliation by Rus on US?
They did not seem to react on the gas pipelines or confiscation of assets....but that was commercial. And they recovered commercially.
US seems to be itching for an escalation?
(handing over a inextractible minefield to Trump?).

I think NATO is too heavily invested in this project to give it up. At the least, they want to show (till the US election) that Ukraine is still
fighting and if they did badly its all because Trump didn't agree to release money. The war will be won by whoever runs out of resources first. The resources are Russia armaments, NATO armaments and Ukrainian manpower. I am betting Ukrainian manpower will end first.
By the time NATO ramps up armaments production to the level of Russia, Ukraine will run out of willing fighters.

The recent Ukrainian incursion towards Belgorod and attacks on its civilian population, along with today's attack, will only harden Russian attitudes.
Perhaps a month ago, Putin may have accepted a deal in line with what was proposed in Mar 22 (and rejected at the urging of US & UK). Not any more. His security council is more hardline than he is.
There are already queues outside Russian army recruitment offices. If there is a ceasefire, its only going to be on Russia's terms.
Until then, Russians will make the sacrifices necessary to win. Its frankly ridiculous of NATO to think that a people who endured the siege of Leningrad will overthrow Putin because the rouble depreciated and Starbucks closed.

My concern is if Putin reacts against NATO (which he may well feel justified to do) this can quickly spiral out of control. For e.g. what if he blows up undersea gas pipelines. My sense is he feels he can win decisively in Ukraine by the time of the US elections and then come to an agreement with Trump. The EU Parliament elections are on 9th June and might give a EU Parliament less anti Russia than it is now.

[Deans]

Some observations about the Russian attitude to the war that we in India could emulate.

Many members of parliament have sent their sons to the war. 4 of them are fighting themselves, despite their middle age.
The Chechen leader Ramzan Kadirov has his 3 sons at the front, the youngest was 16 when he signed up last year.
The mayor of Vladivostok was jailed for 12 years for corruption (accepting bribes). He volunteered to serve at the front to
`pay for his sins with blood' - which is a Russian tradition. 10 months at the front nullifies his remaining 10 year term,
though the chances of a 50+ man surviving in an assault unit is low.

[Pratyush]

The cynic in me sees the following comments from the collective West.

Because, so many of the attackers were taken alive by the Russians. This is an example of Putin's playbook to discredit the Ukrainian cause.

[A_Gupta]

US Embassy Russia, March 7:
https://ru.usembassy.gov/security-alert ... -48-hours/

Security Alert: Avoid Large Gatherings over the Next 48 Hours

Location: Moscow, Russia

The Embassy is monitoring reports that extremists have imminent plans to target large gatherings in Moscow, to include concerts, and U.S. citizens should be advised to avoid large gatherings over the next 48 hours.

Actions to Take:

Avoid crowds.
Monitor local media for updates.
Be aware of your surroundings.

[A_Gupta]

UK warning, March 7:
https://x.com/ukinrussia/status/1765839 ... 03449?s=20

[A_Gupta]

Tass, March 17:
https://tass.ru/politika/20283597

Google translate:

The President of the Russian Federation noted the intention to intimidate and destabilize Russian society
MOSCOW, March 19. /TASS/. Russian President Vladimir Putin called statements in the West about the possibility of terrorist attacks in the Russian Federation outright blackmail.

At the FSB board, the head of state recalled “the recent provocative statements of a number of official Western structures about the possibility of terrorist attacks in Russia.” “All this resembles outright blackmail and the intention to intimidate and destabilize our society,” Putin is sure.

[Dumal]

US Embassy Russia, March 7:
https://ru.usembassy.gov/security-alert ... t-48-hours

If the alert was made on March 7 and was specifically for the following 48 hours, how does that really count towards what happened a full 2 weeks later, even for its PR value.

[hgupta]

The US claims:

The United States has intelligence confirming Islamic State's claim of responsibility for the shooting, a U.S. official said. The official, speaking on condition of anonymity said Washington had warned Moscow "appropriately" in recent weeks of the possibility of an attack.

Friday's attack, about 20 km (12 miles) from the Kremlin, happened two weeks after the U.S. embassy in Russia warned that "extremists" had imminent plans for an attack in Moscow.

Hours before the embassy warning, the FSB said it had foiled an attack on a Moscow synagogue by Islamic State's affiliate in Afghanistan, known as ISIS-Khorasan or ISIS-K, which seeks a caliphate across Afghanistan, Pakistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Iran.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/tw ... 024-03-23/

This is a classic case of US covering its ass with plausible deniability by saying we warned them of impending attacks but deliberately holding back enough details so that the Russian authorities cannot act on the intelligence and be impotent when the attack does come and then come out say waving its hands in the air and say, " we did warn the Russians. Not our fault." Utter BS. US knew where and when and who will carry out the attack and deliberately held back enough info on purpose out of malicious intent to see Russians be further harmed.

[Cyrano]

They warned and nothing happened, then post elections there could have been a bit of relaxed attitude - perfect timing for an operation like this.

Or simply the heightened security during the weeks before the election made them wait until the moment was right, if the terrorists were already in Moscow then the green light was given.

We will get all the details since the pigs were all caught alive and more people were caught based on the information they gave.

The interrogation techniques were simply brutal.

[Cyrano]

The French are getting excited for a face plant. This guy's analysis is right on:

[sanman]

They warned and nothing happened, then post elections there could have been a bit of relaxed attitude - perfect timing for an operation like this.

Or simply the heightened security during the weeks before the election made them wait until the moment was right, if the terrorists were already in Moscow then the green light was given.

We will get all the details since the pigs were all caught alive and more people were caught based on the information they gave.

The interrogation techniques were simply brutal.

West started screaming "ISIS did it!" even before anyone had even been arrested, interrogated, and before any investigation had been done.
Where did they get this sudden certainty from?

[srai]

The cynic in me sees the following comments from the collective West.

Because, so many of the attackers were taken alive by the Russians. This is an example of Putin's playbook to discredit the Ukrainian cause.

Whatever is convenient for each side. The end narrative targets specific objectives planned next.

[sanman]

The cynic in me sees the following comments from the collective West.

Because, so many of the attackers were taken alive by the Russians. This is an example of Putin's playbook to discredit the Ukrainian cause.

So you think Russia staged this attack on themselves? This sounds like western propaganda that Russia blew up its own pipeline.
Pak also does this kind of propaganda against us. Remember how during 26/11 Congis were saying that "Hindutva extremists are carrying out these attacks!"

[srai]

War is on the escalation path. No hands tied. How far it escalates remains to be seen. World is on the precipice of something big …

[sanman]

War is on the escalation path. No hands tied. How far it escalates remains to be seen. World is on the precipice of something big …

I feel NeoCons and their own desperation are at work here.

I feel they've orchestrated some crazy plans using crazy groups, and their propaganda machine is now arguing with a straight face that the Russians have done this to themselves. I think the American public are going to naturally feel uneasy and mistrustful of all this propaganda -- as should we all.

[Pratyush]

Sanman,

Read the first paragraph carefully.

The second one will become clear.

[sanman]

Sanman,

Read the first paragraph carefully.

The second one will become clear.

Alright, sorry about that. I did actually read it that way the first time -- I simply came back again later and forgot.

[Roop]

West started screaming "ISIS did it!" even before anyone had even been arrested, interrogated, and before any investigation had been done.
Where did they get this sudden certainty from?

Well, the most likely culprit is ISIL (Islamic State in Langley).

[IndraD]

WHAT IS KNOWN

- the shooters, originally from Tajikistan, fell under religious indoctrination online related to the Islamic State of the Khorasan Province

- the indoctrination groups were supervised by a Tajikistani citizen called Salmon Khurosoni, he was the one who made the initial recruitment

- Khurosani is said to be an intermediate link between the Islamic State of the Khorasan Province and the CIA

- Islamic State organisers do not promise financial rewards, but for some reason one was approved with the help of Khorasani

- tasks and instructions were prepared by an intermediary in Turkey (presumably a career employee of a foreign intelligence agency) and sent to Salmon Khurosoni

- Ukraine, where the shooters were heading to, was not the last link of the withdrawal plan. Another unidentified foreign intelligence agent, located in Ukraine, was supposed to transport them directly to Turkey, and then to Afghanistan

- that’s where the intermediary “ideological” organiser Salmon Khurosoni is located

https://x.com/narrative_hole/status/177 ... 00075?s=20

[A_Gupta]

This matter of warnings: Doesn’t it remind you of this?
https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 790_1.html