Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 20 Oct 2023 18:10

sanman wrote: ↑20 Oct 2023 17:41 What is a "replicator program"?

Replicator is a Defense Department initiative with a goal to “field attritable autonomous systems at scale of multiple thousands, in multiple domains, within the next 18-to-24 months” and serve as an innovation playbook

Pentagon unveils ‘Replicator’ drone program to compete with China

SRajesh · Post by **SRajesh** » 20 Oct 2023 20:44

Ramanaji
Regardless of the Democracy nonsense :
US is mixed model of old Roman Republic+Preatorian Guards of the Emperor (read President)
The drive to conquer and subjugate is inherent in that system as its built on ones own superiority.
The engines driving are the : Standing Army ( and the associated MIC and paraphernalia) and the Plutocrats calling the shots( and controlling the dime).
China (though an anathema to Democracy Jholawalas) is similarly made up. And believes in the heavenly mandate to rule
So the thinking is of the Big two with their own spheres of influence.
But the conflict is inevitable given their quest for ruling or self inflated ego and superiority.
Remember : The ultimate strategy of a state is not to maintain a balance of power between states but to overcome this equilibrium in order to establish stability through hegemony.
They are at loss to explain India and its destiny as we do not manifest or manifestly prorpound our quest for ruling.
The big challenge is the What would be Indian Model for them as Capitalist mode is the tried and tested one.

The welfare state agains is a throw back to the Romans: remember the free bread and the games and circus. To provide that needs money and only two ways to get it : conquer or pilfer(for want of better term I used it). What better than to use the guise of Democracy to achieve both ends.
Ranga bhi Kush aur Billa bhi Kush!!
If I may (being too presumptive) suggest that our view is Realpolitk of Chanakyan type: we are making dual policies/peace/alliances/preparing for war, which may be inevitable.
We are in the building phase of market to dominate it ( be it tech driven or human resources or otherwise).
Whether we would also succumb to the urge to conquest and dominance I dont know time will tell.
But given the our Dharma spread I believe that we would build allies who are attuned to our way of thinking.
Our focus would be on acquiring knowledge and empowerment which will change the populace(and the mad rush for materialist gains).
Pundits might think I have had too many Acapulco Gold!!

So be it.

bala · Post by **bala** » 23 Oct 2023 22:12

Based on the 100 year marathon book by Michael Pillsbury, a U.S. government's leading China expert, Lt. Gen P. R. Shankar outlines the decline of China in these YT. He talks about (super) power in terms of demography, idealogy, structural issues, climate change, geopolitics and of course the military.

The demography of China is a ticking time bomb. The numbers for China reveal that population is around 1.1 B instead of 1.4 B. The 1 child policy is a disaster. The Gen Z is facing huge unemployment and dis-illusionment. The other end of the population is aging fast. In uncertain times, people try to conserve their money, the savings rate has shot up and therefore there is no spending internally. This causes a downward spiral for employment. The covid clampdown hasn't helped business. Loss of export business is causing huge shutdowns. There is excess supply in almost every sector of the economy. Real estate is in a slump with many declaring bankruptcy. There is a huge unease in the top echelons, some are fleeing to other nations, others are being fired and/or replaced. Emperor eleven is unsure of himself and whether he will be replaced when visiting abroad, so he is staying put in Beijing. He doubts his own cadre of reports. The fat cats of CCP are looking for the nearest exit to secure their wealth and progeny. Private industry is without working capital. Emperor eleven has opened military conflicts with all neighbors of China, even close ally Russia.

The 1 child policy conscripts of PLA are loathed to fight a battle, heavy pressure from parents for their only doting child. The PLA top brass have advised Emperor that they are not capable of winning any war. Taiwan is a distant dream for Eleven. Emperor support of Hamas has painted him as the "bad guy" for the west and Israel. One wrong move by Eleven and the implosion if it happens will be unexpected and very quick, with devastating consequences. China will have to revert back to the 1932 map area.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=73Nk8mPGsw8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MlM8Gm76Dp0

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 26 Oct 2023 01:48

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 11 Nov 2023 06:02

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 14 Nov 2023 08:25

XJP is quite lonely at the top.
All the purges indicate that.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 14 Nov 2023 08:27

In Mitrabheda we find how the Lion is quite lonely and falls prey to Damanaka.

XJP made sure there are no Damanakas.
Sadly neither are any Karatakas.

bala · Post by **bala** » 16 Nov 2023 22:30

Emperor's visit to the US raises interesting questions. Biden's statement of what was achieved is completely forgetable, things like drugs, AI, etc are nothing great. Biden is facing elections next year and his support base is split on the Israel war with Hamas. His woke crowd is up in disgust with the US support of Israel. The Americans have become confused americans, they don't understand who they are and currently support a motley crew of jihadis with a destructive idealogy that wants to reinstate the barbaric desert culture of yore. The US has forward deployed its aircraft carriers in the middle east. Biden has lovingly referred to Emperor as a dictator once again in press briefings. Biden also remarked about China's bullet proof car, in which Emperor came to Whitehouse, is similar to the US Cadillac "Beast" vehicle that is parked nearby.

Emperor is facing an existential crisis within China. He has sacked all his rivals (took out Vice Emperor Li K - any medical treatment requires politburo approval!), destroyed the leadership of PLA, the PLA is no more confident of him or any wars he will start, the economy is in a downward spiral and he is fearful of his own life. Emperor is at war with all his neighboring countries and printing fanciful maps of China. The neighbors are fighting back against China and the PLA conscript is fearful of his life being the only issue in his family. Given this background, his coming (was he summoned) to the US is very dubious in nature. The deep state has removed their money from China and the few remaining assets are in doubt. No more foreign investment is possible. Maybe the US issued a warning to Emperor that he not prevent any further withdrawal. China's BRI is in shambles. China's overcapacity is killing employment in China, and the yard sale for excess is currently happening. China's alliance with Russia, Iran, Qatar, Syria, North Korea, Hamas is not exactly good behavior from the US perspective. China's threat to Taiwan is a big red line for the US. The US is dead set against Iran becoming nuclear (Israel will prevent such an outcome) and maybe the US warned China against any further help to Iran and Hamas.

So the questions persist, what exactly did Emperor achieve with his visit to the US. Some Indian experts discuss this mysterious visit which raises more questions than answers.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jGYfxU7tu0w
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6y3_AfC87yg

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 17 Nov 2023 23:01

How America is Pushing China Out of the Internet

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nyoILSNeq8U

bala · Post by **bala** » 18 Nov 2023 01:24

Adding another analysis by Aadi Achint on Emperor's visit to US, which is off no substantial consequence for China. The US effectively warned China to cool its heels and not cause more problems in the world. Philippines (with a nod from the US) are pestering the Chinese on disputed islands in the seas and Taiwan got a 10B package of arms from the US. Taiwan was present at the APEC summit. The APEC summit was more about sharing the spoils of destruction of the Chinese economy by the West. China is holding the bag of massive withdrawals and trying its best to put up a brave front in the world. The repercussions will take affect soon and will be quite telling. In the semiconductor CHIP arena the US has stuck a dagger and all the suppliers have fled. The remaining Chinese semiconductor foundary factories cannot function without maintenance support by the vendors. Effectively China needs to shut down its high-tech gadget manufacturing (which have sophisticated chips). Even if they succeed to cobble up something, the cost and quality would be way off for any market penetration.

All important leaders of CCP have their offsprings/relatives in the US and the CIA has a good handle on the lot. Many high price real estate properties were bought by these characters and they sent/engaged some nam-ke-vaste person to take care of the properties. Toddler children belonging to the CCP were enrolled in schools in the US. Elder CCP chinese grand parents have filed for US social security payouts. The US immigration legal firms are hand in glove for this racquet since they get paid handsome retainer fees. Emperor does not trust any of his leadership. Kuch be nahi hai - emperor is without clothes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I4aOKnh2keE

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 18 Nov 2023 06:12

Philippines is the Lynchpin of US Indo-Pacific Strategy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PXngZfOX_0M

S_Madhukar · Post by **S_Madhukar** » 18 Nov 2023 07:02

All this sounds too good to be true, Chicoms have greased a lot of palms over the years and continue to pilfer IP at will. They have Amazon style reusable rocket already. I guess only the tip of the spear tech is targeted which means they will continue to dominate some sectors while retaining capacity to steal. The best would have been to expose link with Hamas and truly expose Eleven but I guess Fauci uncles biolabs might come out..

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 19 Nov 2023 04:35

Mearsheimer on whether or not there'll be war with China:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JlFePkfLZf0

bala · Post by **bala** » 19 Nov 2023 10:51

Dr Ankit Shah says the controlled destruction of China's manufacturing clout is being managed by US, though there are many spanners thrown by China which is worrying the US. The open threat of Taiwan by China is being handled by the military as they are the ones who can manage any threat. In terms of trade, China has been manufacturing goods and supplying via Mexico, so that there is no disruption in the flow of revenues to China. China has been supplying stuff to Vietnam too quite similarly. On the chip front, there is a chokehold placed by the US and China has been whining about this issue. China retaliated by banning some key rare earth supply for chip making. Despite all the IP stealing by China and buying out key people, the high tech trade ban is crimping China's ability in a severe manner. This is its achilles heel. Vendors who make high tech equipment will never reveal their inner secrets with Patents, etc. Getting smooth flow on a production floor requires the vendor's expertize and support. In the APEC talk, wherein all industry leaders were present, there was no talk (zero) of any investment. China, lamely asked the US to send 50 K US students to study in China.

Looks like the Deep state has decided to switch manufacturing from China to India. The Chip foundaries are moving into India, while the US will retain full control on key things. Emperor was summoned to visit the US and was told to cool down his rhetoric on Taiwan (direct hotline has been resumed), at the same time warned about his surreptitious supply to other nations can quickly dry up, leaving China in a precarious situation. I think another private warning on Hamas support was issued by the US. The Chinese will be given some time before the US clamps down. This grace period is the outcome of the earlier tango of Janet, Blinken and Newsome with China. Emperor was thrown a small fig leaf. China can pursue its own, which is a steep path to catch up, despite all the IP stealing. The Emperor is in a rather weak position, since his top officials have planted their kith & kin into the US (the CIA has a good handle on them) and moved their loot abroad. His PLA is not up to a fight, not one bit and there is deep seated distrust of his leadership.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vNVKhXvSRzY

bala · Post by **bala** » 20 Nov 2023 00:39

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Adrija · Post by **Adrija** » 20 Nov 2023 10:14

https://www.ft.com/content/c10bd71b-e41 ... c5783c51a2

In a historic turn, China’s rise as an economic superpower is reversing. The biggest global story of the past half century may be over.

After stagnating under Mao Zedong in the 1960s and 70s, China opened to the world in the 1980s — and took off in subsequent decades. Its share of the global economy rose nearly tenfold from below 2 per cent in 1990 to 18.4 per cent in 2021. No nation had ever risen so far, so fast.

Then the reversal began. In 2022, China’s share of the world economy shrank a bit. This year it will shrink more significantly, to 17 per cent. That two-year drop of 1.4 per cent is the largest since the 1960s.

To put this in perspective, the world economy is expected to grow by $8tn in 2022 and 2023 to $105tn. China will account for none of that gain, the US will account for 45 per cent, and other emerging nations for 50 per cent. Half the gain for emerging nations will come from just five of these countries: India, Indonesia, Mexico, Brazil and Poland. That is a striking sign of possible power shifts to come.

Moreover, China’s slipping share of world GDP in nominal terms is not based on independent or foreign sources. The nominal figures are published as part of their official GDP data. So China’s rise is reversing by Beijing’s own account.

R Charan · Post by **R Charan** » 20 Nov 2023 11:29

Not an inch of our land is with China, says Ladakh LG BD Mishra

The development of Ladakh after it was carved out of the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir in 2019 is on track, lieutenant governor B D Mishra said on Saturday. A retired brigadier of the Indian Army, a war veteran and a former governor of Arunachal Pradesh, Mishra said that speculation on Chinese incursions in Ladakh was politically motivated. The government is doing all that is necessary to protect the rights of the people of Ladakh and the territorial integrity of the Union territory that abuts Tibet, the lieutenant governor said. Commenting on the central government’s foreign policy, Mishra said the Chinese know that the Indian leadership after Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to power is not going to yield even one square inch of land to China.
Edited excerpts:
https://defence.in/threads/not-an-inch- ... ishra.532/

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 20 Nov 2023 13:01

^^^

Purely from a technical stand point. The comment from the Ladakh LG is incorrect.

PRC is in occupation of 38000 sq km of our land. That is the subject of the parliamentery resolution.

I think that going forward, we need to highlight that as part of our unfinished business with the PRC.

Just like the PRC keeps harping on Taiwan being the unfinished agenda.

Time to put the PRC in a two front dilemma.

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 22 Nov 2023 10:38

https://sundayguardianlive.com/top-five ... e-for-both
Xi-Biden Summit ends up as Lose-Lose for both
M.D. Nalapat, November 19, 2023
CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping has been facing growing uneasiness with his leadership style within the senior ranks of his party. This is the consequence of (a) economic turmoil in China in an era of attempted decoupling of industry and commerce from that country, (b) the consequent steady fall in property prices and (c) rising unease within the CCP at Xi’s intrusive control over the party machinery and its personnel, including his whimsical appointments and punishments. These appear to be fuelled mostly on the basis of personal loyalty. In such a situation, it was imperative for Xi to travel to San Francisco for the APEC conference to convey the impression globally and domestically that the Sino-US relationship is re-entering a stable and friendly phase. The problem facing Xi is that in past periods, it was possible for the CCP’s top leadership to use honeyed words to successfully camouflage the PRC’s hostile actions against a target country. Equally helpful in such a cover up was that several such operations were done through foreign cutouts rather than directly. Such camouflage has begun to fray with the ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza, where the pro-Russia and Hamas-friendly tilt of the PRC is clear even to the many western apologists of the CCP. Six weeks after the start of the conflict between the Israeli Defense Forces and Hamas, a war that began with the latter’s terror attack on Israel, it has become impossible to ignore which side the CCP is on, evidently to ensure that US attention got focused away from the Taiwan straits. In Ukraine, Beijing’s pro-Moscow stance shows although sometimes language used by its spokespersons denote a more neutral hue. The war in Ukraine and now in Gaza have, not coincidentally, been seen as helpful to the Central Military Commission staff officers tasked with preparing plans for a steady snuffing out of Taiwan’s sovereignty. At present, Taiwan is a country in all but name. CMC planners have been tasked by Xi Jinping to work on a plan of action that will result by 2027 in Taiwan becoming another Hong Kong in all but name. Economic headwinds in China have led Xi to focus on achieving military success to ensure a fourth term, and the biggest prize would be the de facto takeover of Taiwan by the PRC.
In the PLA strategy of invasion by stealth, practically the whole of Taiwanese air and sea space has by now come under the control of the PLA, all that is as yet left being land. Artificial Intelligence is being used by CCP infowarriors to attempt to create a perception in young Taiwanese in particular that any kinetic resistance to the PLA would be ineffective. Images from both Ukraine and Gaza added to those created by AI are being disseminated in CCP-controlled social media platforms to create a defeatist mentality among the Taiwanese. Unfortunately for Xi, the opposite is taking place. As more facts tumble out about the repressive, control freak nature of the CCP top leadership, the greater is the antipathy within the Taiwanese public to becoming another Hong Kong, a city which Xi has made autonomous in name only.
.......
Gautam

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 22 Nov 2023 23:14

China’s rise is reversing

bala · Post by **bala** » 23 Nov 2023 01:10

NRao ji, the above topic is being discussed in the YT below.

Furthermore, there is another article which talks about a $955 B blunder in chinese stock market for 2023. The Yuan depreciation is happening and there is heavy pressure downwards. Investments are almost at zero and exports are crashing. Internal consumption is dropping, people are saving their hard earnings and are scared to spend. China's food security is under a question mark, since drought, floods are devastating Chinese farmland. BRI is a disaster for China. IMEC will close BRI for good. Post COVID no one looks at China favorably. Everyone in the world is looking at de-risking from China, in other words removing any dependence on Chinese goods and investments. CCP people have fled with their money and invested in Euro, Canada, US and other lands. But it is easy for these nations to nationalize their assets by passing some law against CCP ownership. Emperor got nothing from his US visit except some minor issues and assurance that China can supply Mexico and Vietnam for some time. No investments by industry leading companies. Real estate and tech sectors contribute to 55% of GDP and these sectors are effectively dead with no hopes for return on investment. The chinese 17T GDP is now 8.5 T GDP with some fluff in built, could be around 6T in reality.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Np-g4p5EWKs

What has India done?
India has banned chinese to bid on anything in India. India has banned many chinese software including TikTok. On the military front, the armed forces are ready to take the fight anytime and give a bloody nose. Quad and neighboring nations like philippines are being armed (brahmos) by India. All the manufacturing companies are relocating to India and Semiconductor manufacture is all set to happen within India.

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 23 Nov 2023 09:18

Can someone please post "China’s rise is reversing "? it is behind a harami wall.
Gautam

ernest · Post by **ernest** » 23 Nov 2023 19:15

g.sarkar wrote: ↑23 Nov 2023 09:18 Can someone please post "China’s rise is reversing "? it is behind a harami wall.
Gautam

https://archive.is/iDe7x

bala · Post by **bala** » 23 Nov 2023 23:11

China's fast-declining economy is hitting the wealthiest cities

Beijing published its government's October YTD finances on November 15. Although the numbers don't look bad overall, they can't hide China's drastic economic downturn. The wealthiest cities are especially hard hit. Data shows that the economies of China's rich cities and regions are declining faster than the national average. If cities like Guandung, Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjing go into bankruptcy then it means the Chinese centrally controlled economy failed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wLw_1-hj0PI

Lisa · Post by **Lisa** » 29 Nov 2023 21:14

Why India should join China’s Belt and Road Initiative

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/India/wh ... r-AA1kIZiH

Written by an Indian! Who needs enemies?

R Charan · Post by **R Charan** » 01 Dec 2023 10:05

Chinese military values ties with Indian counterpart

China’s Defence Ministry on Thursday said that its military values its relations with the Indian counterpart as it maintained that the 20 rounds of Corps Commander-level talks have helped to ease tensions amidst the eastern Ladakh standoff.

Indian and Chinese troops are locked in an over three-year confrontation in certain friction points in eastern Ladakh even as the two sides completed disengagement from several areas following extensive diplomatic and military talks. India has been maintaining that its ties with China cannot be normal unless there is peace in the border areas.

https://defence.in/threads/chinese-mili ... rpart.892/

ricky_v · Post by **ricky_v** » 02 Dec 2023 03:46

https://merics.org/en/tracker/how-bri-s ... ond-decade

At the end of November, China’s Belt and Road Construction Leadership Group released a ten year plan for the next phase of the BRI. This comes a month after Beijing celebrated ten years of China’s Belt and Road Initiative by hosting the Third BRI Forum with attendees from 150 countries. This special edition of the Global China Competition Tracker looks at the BRI’s first decade of evolution, assesses its impact, and asks what the future of Xi Jinping’s signature foreign policy initiative might look like.

This special edition of the tracker examines the BRI’s impact on trade flows through the ports sector - critical logistics nodes along the BRI. We look at the ports built, bought, operated and used by China’s state-owned national champions.

The BRI was officially introduced in 2013 as part of Xi Jinping’s agenda to expand China’s global influence. However, the initiative had been gathering speed since 1999, first as the “Go Out Policy” (which encouraged Chinese businesses to find partners in international markets), then as the “Going Global Strategy.” By the time Xi Jinping officially baptized the BRI as “One Belt One Road,” Chinese firms had secured terminal operating contracts at ports in 14 countries (in order of agreement: United Kingdom, Argentina, Pakistan, Belgium, Malta, Poland, Spain, Egypt, Angola, United States, Greece, Sweden, Nigeria, Sri Lanka and Togo). In the last 10 years, the network of global influence has expanded to over 75 countries.

Where Chinese firms operate ports, they appear to modify the host countries’ trade toward China and away from former trade partners. By contrast, infrastructure projects appear to bring temporary economic benefits to host economies that fade away about four years after completion.

These are not abstract matters, as Germany recently allowed Chinese state-owned shipping giant COSCO to take a significant stake in the port of Hamburg.

VinodTK · Post by **VinodTK** » 07 Dec 2023 19:57

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 08 Dec 2023 14:23

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 08 Dec 2023 15:02

bala · Post by **bala** » 08 Dec 2023 22:56

A peek into every day China: indian kachua aur chinese karghosh ki kahani

Lt. Gen P R Shankar explains the kahani.. of the tortoise vs hare

China's economic clout is slowing down, and in a few year may go down drastically. Its stance with neighbors could come back to haunt it. The high tech equipment with China's defence forces has a steep learning curve and not fully inducted into the forces. There is an internal revolt between Emperor and PLA, the trust in leadership is in shambles, turnover is high, suspicion all around, investigations galore and people with money fleeing the nation to other shores. After Covid (Kungflu) global nations don't trust China anymore and there is a global retraction of goods order from China. China's overcapacity in manufacturing forces them to have a firesale of produced goods below its cost price. Now this has an impact on employment. Unemployment numbers amongst young population is past 50%. The Real estate market has crashed, many empty high rise buildings and construction has slowed down to a trickle. Social problems are simmering and can come out as social unrest in the open at any time. China's internal consumption is sliding downwards, people are not spending and conserving their assets (no more investment in real estate or stocks) as money in the bank.

India is not competing with China, however, India is slowly rising (the trend is upwards). The rise is more enduring and steady. The mix of services vs manufacturing is skewed towards services. India's manufacturing is slowly rising since many global brands are relocating from China to India. Foreign investment is rising in India, dropping (could be near zero) in China. At the same time, India has strived for good relations with neighbors, the neighbors of China and globally including global south. India is also bolstering its defence forces with locally made equipment. The Indian Aircraft carrier groups are competent and sail well outside Indian shores. It is not that India has no systemic problems, but these are addressed in a slow manner with change happening across the board, there is enough dissent/rebellion (center vs state) but these are natural outlets of democracy. Internal consumption is increasing, GST numbers are rising month after month.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 09 Dec 2023 00:49

bala · Post by **bala** » 12 Dec 2023 11:39

This is interesting to recap - how did China get its nuclear bombs. Initially Soviet collaboration brought China into nuclear capability domain. This collaboration, had implications on India's independence from the Britshits. The Soviets were mining Uranium in the Xingjiang area and the Brits wanted to monitor such activity. You could say that the partition of Bharat into two was motivated by such considerations. The entire kashmir issue was because Britshits had a monitoring site in Gilgit and did not want to give up such capability.

Then came the split between Soviets and China. This stopped all cooperation in the nuclear field. China doggedly continued their quest to get nuclear capability. Their first bomb was a uranium implosion weapon rather than a plutonium implosion weapon. Thereafter China went on to develop hydrogen bomb and missiles for delivery. Today, China has proliferated the nuclear bomb to the Pukes and North Korea and also given them missiles.

more in this YT
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KlH-VYAW8pA

On a completely different topic, Lt. Gen Ravi Shankar has some material on China and its conflict with neighbors like South Korea, Japan, Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan. Some heat maps on sea and complete air escalations with Taiwan are shown around 5:40 in this YT. The Shandong carrier group around Taiwan, Guam and Phillippines is very active. The Chinese are closely buzzing US jets and they know that any provocation would result in a huge loss for the Chinese. Philippines are involved in many tussles on sea, islands being threatened, fishing boats shooed away, etc. Good thing they bought brahmos from India and they need a few more weapons like ALH, Tejas to take on any Chinese intrusion.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IuqfKhPBkko

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 16 Dec 2023 13:55

Whether it's lil Kim, or whether it's moves like this from Russia & China, I think SKorea's going to suffer increasing grief for toeing the US foreign policy line

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 18 Dec 2023 02:06

Guys go easy on Youtube videos. Mostly giving hits to empty talking heads.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 18 Dec 2023 02:09

g.sarkar wrote: ↑22 Nov 2023 10:38 https://sundayguardianlive.com/top-five ... e-for-both
Xi-Biden Summit ends up as Lose-Lose for both
M.D. Nalapat, November 19, 2023
CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping has been facing growing uneasiness with his leadership style within the senior ranks of his party. This is the consequence of (a) economic turmoil in China in an era of attempted decoupling of industry and commerce from that country, (b) the consequent steady fall in property prices and (c) rising unease within the CCP at Xi’s intrusive control over the party machinery and its personnel, including his whimsical appointments and punishments. These appear to be fuelled mostly on the basis of personal loyalty. In such a situation, it was imperative for Xi to travel to San Francisco for the APEC conference to convey the impression globally and domestically that the Sino-US relationship is re-entering a stable and friendly phase. The problem facing Xi is that in past periods, it was possible for the CCP’s top leadership to use honeyed words to successfully camouflage the PRC’s hostile actions against a target country. Equally helpful in such a cover up was that several such operations were done through foreign cutouts rather than directly. Such camouflage has begun to fray with the ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza, where the pro-Russia and Hamas-friendly tilt of the PRC is clear even to the many western apologists of the CCP. Six weeks after the start of the conflict between the Israeli Defense Forces and Hamas, a war that began with the latter’s terror attack on Israel, it has become impossible to ignore which side the CCP is on, evidently to ensure that US attention got focused away from the Taiwan straits. In Ukraine, Beijing’s pro-Moscow stance shows although sometimes language used by its spokespersons denote a more neutral hue. The war in Ukraine and now in Gaza have, not coincidentally, been seen as helpful to the Central Military Commission staff officers tasked with preparing plans for a steady snuffing out of Taiwan’s sovereignty. At present, Taiwan is a country in all but name. CMC planners have been tasked by Xi Jinping to work on a plan of action that will result by 2027 in Taiwan becoming another Hong Kong in all but name. Economic headwinds in China have led Xi to focus on achieving military success to ensure a fourth term, and the biggest prize would be the de facto takeover of Taiwan by the PRC.
In the PLA strategy of invasion by stealth, practically the whole of Taiwanese air and sea space has by now come under the control of the PLA, all that is as yet left being land. Artificial Intelligence is being used by CCP infowarriors to attempt to create a perception in young Taiwanese in particular that any kinetic resistance to the PLA would be ineffective. Images from both Ukraine and Gaza added to those created by AI are being disseminated in CCP-controlled social media platforms to create a defeatist mentality among the Taiwanese. Unfortunately for Xi, the opposite is taking place. As more facts tumble out about the repressive, control freak nature of the CCP top leadership, the greater is the antipathy within the Taiwanese public to becoming another Hong Kong, a city which Xi has made autonomous in name only.
.......
Gautam

The author doesnt know what really happened at SF summit. Basically, XJP protected his king by castling in chess parlance. He threw some sops to US and in return freed up US investment in China that is badly needed to revive the second-tier cities and middle-class consumption.
Sadly not all our experts see without clear glasses.

Adrija · Post by **Adrija** » 18 Dec 2023 11:30

China is inherently a brittle state given the underlying structural faults between the North and South, and has been prone to civil wars and breakups throughout its history.

In the modern era perhaps a breakup and civil war may not be likely any more but the inherent brittleness remains

Sadly, what that means is that US will lessen the screws much earlier than what most people foresee (within the next two years if Democrats return to the White House, perhaps ~ five if Trump-wa is triumphant), and will return to its old game of propping China up

IMVHO and all that of course

bala · Post by **bala** » 19 Dec 2023 11:33

China's Economic Quandary: Every Move a Misstep. This YT is clearly pointing to a downward trend for China in the economic sphere. 3rd tier cities in China are in deep trouble, facing a sudden deflation, and soaring unemployment. The 2nd tier and 1st tier are managing due to existing wealthy denizens.

China's economic indicators for November paint a grim picture, with the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) at 49.4% and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) declining by 0.5% on both a year-on-year and month-on-month basis. The Producer Price Index (PPI) has remained low all year, contributing to a continuous decline in corporate profits. Examining the economic trends, the latter part of the year shows only a brief uptick in September, followed by a sustained downturn.

The reliance on subsidies for export enterprises faces challenges on the global stage, symbolizing the end of the "Made in China" era. The summary concludes that the government's short-sighted approach, evident in each decision, is likely to lead the country into economic hardship, prompting a suggestion that even a monkey might outperform their decision-making.

Certain data is no more shared publicly since they are sliding downwards. The Share of imports into the US used to be dominated by China, now they are #4 after EU, Mexico, Canada. China' average age is 39 yrs and could increase quickly. India, Mexico and Vietnam are going to be the worlds manufacturing destinations. Investments are pouring into these nations. Every CCP decision in the economy has been a disaster, e.g. real estate market.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3l0zB89W_w4

drnayar · Post by **drnayar** » 21 Dec 2023 11:39

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Comme ... -frictions

China is on track to export around 90 million tonnes of steel in 2023, approaching the more than 110 million tonnes of 2015 -- a year that saw a proliferation of anti-dumping measures around the world.

Chinese oil-related exports have also grown this year. Exports of diesel more than doubled on the year in the January-September period. Overall petroleum exports, which include gasoline and jet fuel, increased more than 30%.

China's refining capacity exceeded 17 million barrels per day as of 2022 and is approaching the U.S.'s 18 million, according to British industry group Energy Institute.

bala · Post by **bala** » 22 Dec 2023 02:52

Emperor's uphill run is causing heavy anxiety, a general peek into everyday China in this YT by Lt. Gen P R Shankar. In Shanghai and other major cities, there is huge rush in the railway stations, since many are laid off and returning back to their original home town/village. Many empty high rise buildings in China with 1 or 2 people left.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MgEQH39X-Bg