China Economic Stress Watch

[sanman]

If you all don't mind, I feel we should have a more focused look at the unfolding economic distress in China:

[g.sarkar]

CHINA Industrial Output Crashes, Yuan Tumbles, Property Defaults, Exports & Imports Falls, Deflation

CHINA is in Deep Trouble and the latest data for July reveals that the Economy is now Suffering from DEFLATION as prices fell by 0.3% over the past 12 months, Industrial Production is down, Yuan value is tumbling, Exports & Imports are falling, Business Confidence is stalling and the economy is slowing much faster than expected. In this video I provide full details of the latest economic performance and discuss the potential impact on the Global Economy.
.......
Gautam

[sanman]

Evergrande disaster is going to have huge ripple effects across Chinese economy:




The large size of China's economy, coupled with its opacity, is a recipe for large-scale capital misallocation -- ie. large bubbles doomed to burst catastrophically.
While nearby Japan may be situated on the geologically unstable Ring Of Fire, it's the Chinese who are positioned for massive economic earthquakes.

[sanman]

[drnayar]

There is a certain "china" going down chorus in the western media esp wrt to de dollarization and BRICS efforts for a gold backed currency. Something to keep in mind.

There is no permanent enemy or friend in geopolitics. , only shared interests. Where India's and Chinas interests coincide we need to support this.

The biggest enemy for decades , if not centuries has been western imperialistic powers looting and pillaging Asian countries, China and India were their primary targets. Now its all too convenient to pit one against the other.

[isubodh]

There is no permanent enemy or friend in geopolitics. , only shared interests. Where India's and Chinas interests coincide we need to support this.

The biggest enemy for decades , if not centuries has been western imperialistic powers looting and pillaging Asian countries, China and India were their primary targets. Now its all too convenient to pit one against the other.

This seems rhetorical. How to support a neighbor who is adversial on most points if not all. Be it Pak terrorists, NSG, Brahmaputra, Galwan, CPEC, Arunachal Pradesh, stapled visa, Mansrovar yatra ....
If we cooperate then what we are accepting is that they can be adversial to all our interests but can get cooperation inspite of all this.
Most of it is not based on prompts to China by West.

So where is it that China will feel the pinch and give India any concession. I am thinking of game theory where one players is always soft give the other player no incentive to change behavior.

[sanman]

[Cyrano]

Evergrande finally filed for bankruptcy.

Tofu dreg economy is tottering....

[Atmavik]

Iron brothers influence

[VKumar]

We should stop all imports of consumer goods from China. Our huge trade deficit with China is harming us and our MSME.

[Aditya_V]

We should stop all imports of consumer goods from China. Our huge trade deficit with China is harming us and our MSME.

All electronics require Copper for example which BIF shutdown, talk is cheap but we have traitors in our midst.

[Pratyush]

There is no permanent enemy or friend in geopolitics. , only shared interests. Where India's and Chinas interests coincide we need to support this.

The PRC between the lot of them don't have more than 2 brain cells to run together.

If they had those brain cells. They would not have done 62 and everything thing post 62 to turn India into an implacable foe.

Second, will the PRC collapse due to the economic stress. As long as they have an external enemy to focus. Economic hardship can be endured.

Both India and Taiwan represent such an enemy.

PRC might done. But unless it's done and dusted, i will not hold my breath that PRC is done.

[g.sarkar]

Pratyushji,
why do you say that "They would not have done 62 and everything thing post 62 to turn India into an implacable foe"? India has compromised in the matters of Tibet and the Dalai Lama, Taiwan, and in Ladakh, it does not bring up the areas that Pakistan donated in Kashmir. Indian leaders till very recently did not want to oppose China in any way, shape or form. The only exception is the Indian military, but they are firmly under civilian control and take directions from the politicians. On the contrary, the '62 war has been extremely positive for China. It has shown the world who is the boss of this area, and Indian politicians have kowtowed ever since. "Friendship" with India would not have yielded these benefits. Gandhian India even did not develop Ladakh and Arunachal as a kind of peaceful non-cooperation movement.
Gautam

[sanman]

I found this particular Indian analyst to be very incisive:

[krithivas]

They are talking down China faster than it may really be going down. Thirty years from now when India's utility value decreases or stagnates, expect similar talk down. The power to shape narratives also must become multi-polar, thanks to Wion and Vantage, I see hope.

China is on the verge of economic and social implosion
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ch ... 8ef5&ei=12

[bala]

Sometime back I saw a Singapore economic forum discussion on the topic of India and China and which economy will prevail. The thesis was that little changes can cause big transformation, both up and down. The quick rise in China will run out of steam and then certain little changes will cause sudden deflation. The authors of the paper/thesis were both Indian/Chinese descent in Singapore economic forum and the consensus was that India would overtake China. I did not believe it one bit, remained highly skeptical. But watching things unfold in China I now believe what they said to be quite true.

China's rise was because of it becoming the manufacturing hub of the world, suitably aided by US (Nixon/Kissinger started the tango). Using this clout, China embarked on widespread modernization by fiat control of its population. India on the other hand had to slog its way slowly upwards, and democracy is quite a bit of hamper on rapid progress. Nevertheless the changes wrought upon India, being however slow, are of permanent lasting change. The same cannot be said for China. One small tweak in demand for its manufacturing, or altering investment in manufacturing has a tailspin effect on its economy. Many well known international entities are scampering towards other nations for its supply chain activities. Just this small change, has huge ramifications for the Chinese economy. China will try to moderate the effect, but there could be enormous pressure to correct things quickly and a false move can exaggerate the problem even further. I believe these small changes can happen in quick succession and then things could turn out be uncontrollable. I also note that the deep state operatives of the US have made quick visits to China (blinken, kissinger, janet yellen, etc) to allay fears with XJP that they are not pulling out of china fast since they have their investments into China. The Taiwan threat is just a threat and will not happen.

[S_Madhukar]

Well US survived GFC, I think China will too, may be Eleven will be retired after 3rd term and they will limp for a few years. Saurav Jha has some good insights on the debt build up in China which India should try to avoid. Particularly to pay attention on the National Income which has to balance between domestic consumption and exports that has made China unbalanced

[ernest]

Sometime back I saw a Singapore economic forum discussion on the topic of India and China and which economy will prevail. The thesis was that little changes can cause big transformation, both up and down. The quick rise in China will run out of steam and then certain little changes will cause sudden deflation. The authors of the paper/thesis were both Indian/Chinese descent in Singapore economic forum and the consensus was that India would overtake China. I did not believe it one bit, remained highly skeptical. But watching things unfold in China I now believe what they said to be quite true.

As Nissim MIcholas Taleb would say, China is not antifragile

[ramana]

The Qing dynasty fall was due to two major causes:
1) Qing did not understand modern weapons
2) Qing had corrupt provincial governors.
We see similar gaps now
3) Communist leaders don't understand modern economy
4) CPC is corrupt. No change from 2)

However its 3) that causes problems.

[Najunamar]

Mostly the fall happens due to unintended consequences- your strengths themselves turn into achilles heels. Such as the belief that unfettered mercantilism and pouring money into "national priority" segments could result in a system that's inflexible and allows later entrants to leapfrog to pole position.

[Jay]

A really interesting bunch of anectodes from some one who travelled to China recently...

https://old.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets ... lieve_the/

[Cyrano]

To save itself, CCP will make China the next NoKo ie you can die but you can't leave. The human scale of the impending disaster will make the Mao era deaths seem insignificant.

[g.sarkar]

Xi Jinping Humiliated in BRICS, Surrenders | China Decline Inevitable | Gen PR Shankar & Sanjay D

.......
Gautam

[vimal]

A really interesting bunch of anectodes from some one who travelled to China recently...

https://old.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets ... lieve_the/

To be honest, Chinese CCP has and will again carry out mass population termination when they don’t need the teeming millions. It is absolutely corrupt, self serving and devoid of any sense of righteousness or morals and doesn’t have to worry about voters.

Due to one child policy there are 18 million more men than women with no future. Where do you think CCP will employ these men? My guess is a meat grinder like a war with India or Taiwan. It’s the perfect example of a dystopian society.

[Pratyush]

How many people died during the great leap forward without any conflict with external powers.

[sanman]

How many people died during the great leap forward without any conflict with external powers.

Some analysts are making dark predictions that CCP leadership have decided to sacrifice care for the older generation, to let them die off more quickly, and thus lighten the load for the younger sections of society. I don't think that would work out well, and will lead to mass unrest among youth who won't just abandon their parents and grandparents to the depredations of social marginalization. It would certainly wreck domestic consumption from retirees who'd otherwise be consuming a lot in their later years.

[g.sarkar]

Sanmanji,
Communists do not believe in an after life. So, the older generation is a burden to the society, when they stop working. When I was living in West Berlin, GDR citizens were not allowed to visit the West, as they could stay. But once they were over age 65, the retiring age, they could go to the West and stay there. Their work life was over and State saved on their pension and medical expenses. When a farmer has an old horse that can no longer work, it is put to death. The same principle.
Gautam

[vijayk]

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/opini ... 67721.html
China Economy: Has the export-investment-state-driven growth model reached its limits?

[vijayk]

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy ... 1cff1f76eb
’Pleading for money’: Chinese economy in trouble as Xi Jinping’s leadership falters
Retail sales are down, exports are slipping and local governments are pleading for cash. China is in trouble – but will it drag us down with it?

[Leonard]

Evergrande Stock Price 0.35 cents -- HKSE -- Drop of 80+ % in One day after trading re-opened since 2022.

Country Garden Stock Price 0.81 cents

[sanman]

[sanman]

[sanman]

[isubodh]

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy ... 1cff1f76eb
’Pleading for money’: Chinese economy in trouble as Xi Jinping’s leadership falters
Retail sales are down, exports are slipping and local governments are pleading for cash. China is in trouble – but will it drag us down with it?

It would be good to pick up the real lessons form all this, leading from others mistake costs little.
If in matter of 2-3 years such a turnaround can happen then what was the worth of decades of double digit growth.

[chetak]

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy ... 1cff1f76eb
’Pleading for money’: Chinese economy in trouble as Xi Jinping’s leadership falters
Retail sales are down, exports are slipping and local governments are pleading for cash. China is in trouble – but will it drag us down with it?

It would be good to pick up the real lessons form all this, leading from others mistake costs little.
If in matter of 2-3 years such a turnaround can happen then what was the worth of decades of double digit growth.

isubodh ji,

what they built was a house of cards, complete with smoke and mirrors.

maybe this was always a disaster in the making, just looking for a place to happen

this is a time of great danger for India, both in terms of adverse geopolitics, and the very real possibility of a kinetic conflict, triggered by a sinking and flailing cheen economy

[bala]

Whenever there is an underlying crime being committed the end result is always some unforetold disaster in the making. The Chinese and US combined together in this criminal activity (Remember the tango of Nixon/Kissinger and Mao). The factories of US were dismantled and reassembled in China using the humongous farm labor (cheap) which was transformed into indentured labor for the owners of the factories (held by Deep State operatives on a global basis) and for the CCCP. China in turn used the momentum and scale to print as much money is needed and embarked on a manic mission to upgrade themselves. Since the Deep state is involved (to reap benefits of the cheap labor) full scale fudging of numbers, shanghai statistics and other glorious articles in media appeared. China learning fast, turned the tables and captured the narratives on a global basis, including the US. The Chinese engaged in other illegal activities like espionage on a large scale and bullying its neighbors (all under the tacit nod of the Deep State). Now that Covid descended on the world, the sentiments have changed and like a chameleon the Deep State is willing to throw China under the bus with some misgivings since there is cost associated with any transition of the factories (which they own). Don't worry about the cost, global inflation is enough to cover any additional cost and more (Deep State are laughing their way to their own banks). The unfolding of this transition and the attendant villification of China in the world is enough for a massive plunge of China's standing. What will China do with the excess capacity and unemployed labor force? The export market will transition to other nations including India. The Emperor is cornered and is fuming, which means he is going to blow his gasket soon. India could well be on his outburst.

[sanman]

[vimal]

As I said earlier China’s one child policy fueled population crisis means tens of millions of men with no hope of marriage and family. These are essentially disposable bodies for CCP. CCP has a template for disposing millions of humans with no remorse for its own survival. They can and will be ruthless like in the past.

[g.sarkar]

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/healt ... 1dc4f7b700
‘Devastating’: 1.9 million deaths in two months tied to China’s Covid-19 exit
China’s decision to end its strict Covid zero strategy policy has led to a devastating outcome, according to one of the first independent studies into the virus.
Carla Mascarenhas, August 28, 2023
New research has found China’s decision to end its strict Covid zero strategy policy had a truly devastating outcome, with a new report claiming there has been 1.9 million excess deaths in just two months.
The figure applies only to adults over the age of 30 who died between December 2022 and January 2023, according to the paper published in the journal JAMA Network Open.
The Chinese government had previously disclosed about 60,000 Covid-related deaths in health facilities from early December to the middle of January.
The researchers estimate is consistent with forecasts from other academic researchers and health groups.
“Despite being the first place to be hit by Covid-19, China was able to quickly suppress the disease through stringent measures over an extended period,” said Dr Joseph Unger, the senior author of the paper and a biostatistician and health services researcher at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Centre in Seattle.
“Because the Chinese population had been largely shielded from infection with limited natural immunity and was not fully or well vaccinated, the sudden introduction of widespread Covid-19 infection had a devastating impact.”
In the US, which reported the highest number of Covid deaths during the pandemic, a cumulative 1.1 million adults aged 45 and older died from the virus, according to the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention.
Estimating the number of deaths from Covid has been difficult over the world for a range of reasons including the challenges of diagnosing infections early on in the outbreak and tracking everyone affected during the massive waves that followed.
......
Bombshell report
The findings come as the Covid-19 “patient zero” was revealed to be a Wuhan scientist carrying out experiments on souped-up coronaviruses.
According to the report, the scientist, Ben Hu, was conducting risky tests at the Wuhan Institute of Virology with two colleagues, Ping Yu and Yan Zhu.
It’s understood all three fell ill with Covid-like symptoms and needed hospital care weeks before China disclosed the virus outbreak to the world.
Several US government officials identified the three scientists in a bombshell report by journalists Michael Shellenberger and Matt Taibbi.
Writing in the Substack newsletter Public earlier this year, they alleged the scientists were experimenting with coronaviruses when they became sick in 2019.
Many experts and intelligence officials have long suspected scientists at the lab accidentally spread Covid-19 during so-called “gain of function” experiments on bat coronaviruses.
The naming of “patient zero” could be the so-called smoking gun – adding to mounting circumstantial evidence of a lab leak.
It’s not clear who in the US government had the intelligence about the sick lab workers, how long they had it, and why it was not shared with the public.
The Sky News host Sharri Markson, who spoke to The Sun about the lab leak theory in 2021, said it marked an “explosive development”.
......
Gautam

[Cyrano]

Gain of function research was funded by the US, the L4 bio lab was built with help from France and others. The early outbreak cases in Wuhan were geo mapped and they were clearly very dense along the metro line connecting the damned lab with the city center. All this is public knowledge since a few years, only the media chooses to ignore it and the US even under trump didn't do much apart from shouting "Chaineesee virus" because the fingers would again point back to US & EU for ToT and funding it.

Very quickly Trump & US Pharma co.s saw a huge opportunity to make billions at warp speed and no one cares anymore. Ursula ordered over 4 billion vaccine doses for a cool 80B$ at 25% over the list price (nearly 20$ a pop), and no one knows how many were destroyed past expiry date since the opaque contracts forbade all donations to anyone outside the EU.

Karma has come back and bit China in the ass and torpedoed their economy, their Pharma, vaccine and API exports took a big reputitional hit, apart from millions of deaths that China & the G7 want to gloss over and forget.

The surprising and amazing winner of this dangerous and sad episode is INDIA ! Jai Ho !!