10/7 vs 9/11 (Israel-Gaza) Strategic Fallout & Implications

[NRao]

Very, very interesting discussion with (ret) Lt. Gen. Khandare, intel, on Israeli situation. Lt. Gen. knew the current Israeli chiefs personally professionally. Humint vs. Techint in general.

[NRao]

Israel’s farms need foreign labourers. The Hamas attacks triggered an exodus

On the morning of October 7, Hamas fighters streamed into the quiet lanes of kibbutz Alumim, setting off on a rampage of killing and destruction. But most of their victims in the community weren’t Israeli, or even Jewish, they were Thai and Nepali farm workers, sleeping in a dormitory right in the militants’ path.

Some of the men limped, others were pushed. Flanked by gunmen, the men were marched to their deaths.

Security staff watched helplessly on CCTV from just a few hundred meters away as the 23 men were massacred.

The violence has set off an exodus of foreign workers from Israel, with some 10,000 farmworkers estimated to have left since October 7, according to the Israeli government.

For Israel’s dairy and agricultural farms, that has posed an almost existential problem. Dairy cows need milking several times a day by specially trained staff, while the past weeks have been the harvest window for many crops.

Without hands to work on the farms, crops and animals would have been left to die. Volunteers from across Israel have stepped in to prop them up, but much-needed foreign workers are still yet to return, and farmers fear that without guarantees of security, the future of Israeli farming near Gaza is impossible.

[NRao]

00:03 Biden White House works out ceasefire with Netanyahu despite tensions
02:58 President Biden assures Egypt's President Al-Sisi that under no circumstances will the US allow a redrawing of Gaza's borders or the besiegement of Gaza.
06:13 Biden White House sets red lines for Israel on Gaza
09:16 Biden White House's diplomatic policy in the Middle East risks losing influence and control of the region
11:55 Netanyahu is in an awkward position and the United States' political initiative is slipping out of their control.
14:35 Biden's reelection and the Democrats would be negatively impacted by a Middle East crisis moving towards BRICS mediation.
17:09 Biden White House faces challenges in balancing support for Israel and addressing concerns of various voter groups
19:31 The Blinken proposal for a peacekeeping force in Gaza is different from the BRICS proposal.
21:53 Biden's White House has outlined red lines to Netanyahu

[vimal]

00:03 Biden White House works out ceasefire with Netanyahu despite tensions
02:58 President Biden assures Egypt's President Al-Sisi that under no circumstances will the US allow a redrawing of Gaza's borders or the besiegement of Gaza.
06:13 Biden White House sets red lines for Israel on Gaza
09:16 Biden White House's diplomatic policy in the Middle East risks losing influence and control of the region
11:55 Netanyahu is in an awkward position and the United States' political initiative is slipping out of their control.
14:35 Biden's reelection and the Democrats would be negatively impacted by a Middle East crisis moving towards BRICS mediation.
17:09 Biden White House faces challenges in balancing support for Israel and addressing concerns of various voter groups
19:31 The Blinken proposal for a peacekeeping force in Gaza is different from the BRICS proposal.
21:53 Biden's White House has outlined red lines to Netanyahu

NRao thank you so much for the timestamps and cc. This is how every poster should post video links so that textual context is maintained even if video is gone.

[NRao]

An ex-Indian, now a retired Israeli SF.

[NRao]

[NRao]

NRao thank you so much for the timestamps and cc. This is how every poster should post video links so that textual context is maintained even if video is gone.

One can install the Merlin AI, that uses ChatGPT, as an extension on one's browser. However, Merlin needs a substantial amount of "data" to generate the timestamp. The free version invariably does NOT work.

[sanman]

Hamas leader shows up at Afghan Taliban event:

[sanman]

Now that the Houthi expansion of the war is coming into sharper focus, America's worries in this regard are also coming to light:

[sanman]

[sanman]

@1:12 "Iran has no direct access to the Mediterranean Sea itself, and it is not clear how Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps could attempt to close it off"
Sure they have access -- through Lebanon, where their proxy Hezbollah lives. Hezbollah will do what the Houthis have been doing.

Sleepy Joe Biden is looking more impotent and ineffective than Jimmy Carter during the Iran hostage crisis.
And Victoria Nuland is looking dumber than Zbigniew Brzezinski when he messed up the rescue attempt.

If Trump gets re-elected, would he go in for war against Iran? He already killed Suleimani without batting an eyelid.

Yet the NeoCons, being anti-Trump, are betting all their cards on Nikki Haley as their reliable war-horse to launch a war on Iran for them.

[Haresh]

@1:12 "Iran has no direct access to the Mediterranean Sea itself, and it is not clear how Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps could attempt to close it off"
Sure they have access -- through Lebanon, where their proxy Hezbollah lives. Hezbollah will do what the Houthis have been doing.

Sleepy Joe Biden is looking more impotent and ineffective than Jimmy Carter during the Iran hostage crisis.
And Victoria Nuland is looking dumber than Zbigniew Brzezinski when he messed up the rescue attempt.

If Trump gets re-elected, would he go in for war against Iran? He already killed Suleimani without batting an eyelid.

Yet the NeoCons, being anti-Trump, are betting all their cards on Nikki Haley as their reliable war-horse to launch a war on Iran for them.

It wouldn't be too difficult to place a team on a ship, with explosives. All they would have to do is wait till the ship is in the Suez canal, take over the ship and then blow a hole in the hull. It would be blocked for months.

Or they could seize a ship in the Med and ram it into the entrance to the canal, they could do that in the South as well.

The Neocons and the Biden admin are incompetent idiots.
They should have doubled down on the sanctions against the mullah's and worked with the secular opposition to overthrow them.
If the islamic regime was overthrown it would have been replaced with a secular democracy, the Americans then would have two democratic, pro US allies in the region. But typical American short term thinking, they picked a fight with Russia. They want instability because then they can sell weapons.
No wonder no one trusts them.
People like Nuland, Blinken and the other Neocons should be banned from all government buildings. The stupidity defies belief.

[sanman]

You can see where the ship Chem Pluto was hit - how close is that to our territorial waters?
We absolutely shouldn't tolerate any hits inside our territorial waters, and had better take military action in that event.

[Manish_P]

It was hit close to our territorial EEZ

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... _Ocean.png

Even if it was not hit within our actual EEZ, the east arabian sea is pretty much our 'pond'

This is Iran sending us a message.

[Aditya_V]

I do not rule out Iran, but the speed with which the British went, we will need to do our own due delligence, no doubt the Iranian regime is not trust worthy. But check and verify.

[sanman]

Jalebi? Who came up with that name?

[sanman]

Former Israeli PM discloses that Israel had carried out a strike in Iran a couple of years back:

[sanman]

US withdrawing its state-of-the-art USS Gerald Ford from Eastern Mediterranean -- why?

[drnayar]

US withdrawing its state-of-the-art USS Gerald Ford from Eastern Mediterranean -- why?

[youtube]mZHuR2gHExo[/youtube

when push comes to shove ? .. why is America running away ?!

[sanman]

[sanman]

[sanman]

[Garooda]

US withdrawing its state-of-the-art USS Gerald Ford from Eastern Mediterranean -- why?

[youtube]mZHuR2gHExo[/youtube

when push comes to shove ? .. why is America running away ?!

Supposedly due to fears of cloned 2018 captured US Naval Drone by Yemen ?? Remember Russia had to do the same due to threat to its navy by Ukranian naval drones.

[sanman]

Iran hit by large bomb blast



Israel baiting the Iranians into responding/escalating, so that US can then intervene.

I doubt the Iranians will take the bait.

[sanman]

Hardline NeoCons vs Moderate NeoCons

[hgupta]

Iran hit by large bomb blast



Israel baiting the Iranians into responding/escalating, so that US can then intervene.

I doubt the Iranians will take the bait.

But that makes the Israelis a terrorist nation if they would blow up innocent people like that. I do not think Israel would ever do that. They would attack military targets but not civilian targets. Otherwise they would be guilty of war crimes the very same crimes that they accuse of Hamas and others of committing.

[morem]

they were training Indian soldiers and LTTE cadres at the same time, in the same base ( Ref: By way of deception -Victor Ostrovsky) - i doubt they are rule followers. And rightly they should not be with a population of 9 million.

[hgupta]

they were training Indian soldiers and LTTE cadres at the same time, in the same base ( Ref: By way of deception -Victor Ostrovsky) - i doubt they are rule followers. And rightly they should not be with a population of 9 million.

Ok then we need to stop giving them the moral high ground and call them out for what they are. I do not support Hamas in any way but you cannot deny that decades of Israeli occupation and the Palestinian frustration have led to the Oct 7 attacks. Israel's actions afterward will not solve the problem but only exacerbate the problem even further.

Israel is only provoking Iran further. It already made an enemy out of Russia. Now Russia will gladly support Iran and support to the last Iranian in the fight against Israel and US. And the Middle east population will not tolerate their own governments supporting foreign powers in the suppression of another muslim nation. Their geopolitical rule is pretty much this: Only muslims can suppress other muslims.

[sanman]

Ok then we need to stop giving them the moral high ground and call them out for what they are. I do not support Hamas in any way but you cannot deny that decades of Israeli occupation and the Palestinian frustration have led to the Oct 7 attacks.

I feel that Iran was behind Oct 7 attacks -- they are the main backers/financiers of both Hamas and Hezbollah.

Iran was feeling threatened by the imminent prospect of Israel-Saudi peace agreement, which would have been further cemented by India-MiddleEast-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). This would have led to Iran's marginalization from Middle Eastern politics.

The Oct 7 attack was aimed at provoking huge retaliation from Israel, which would inflame the Arab & Muslim world and destroy prospects for Israel-Saudi peace deal. In this regard, they seem to have succeeded.

Israel's actions afterward will not solve the problem but only exacerbate the problem even further.

The problem has gotten more complicated and more intractable over time.
Arguably things were simpler before 1979 Iranian revolution which saw the rise of a new Ayatollah regime that was interested in becoming a party to the conflict.
Now things have worsened with Turkey slipping out of military rule, and Erdogan has become a new threat to Israel, albeit on a different level.
This is all part of the inexorable rise of multipolarity.

With collapse of Israel-Arab peace prospects, Israel is alone except for United States.

Israel is only provoking Iran further.

Iran provoked Israel with Oct 7 attack. There's no way Hamas could have pulled off such a thing without external assistance.

It already made an enemy out of Russia. Now Russia will gladly support Iran and support to the last Iranian in the fight against Israel and US. And the Middle east population will not tolerate their own governments supporting foreign powers in the suppression of another muslim nation. Their geopolitical rule is pretty much this: Only muslims can suppress other muslims.

It's the NeoCons who've made an enemy of Russia. I agree that Iran only attempted this gambit against Israel with the assurances of both Russia and China. But I don't think Israel and Russia are inherently enemies - it's the opportunistic NeoCons in Washington who will make an enemy out of anyone, throwing anyone under a bus on their rush to war.

While NeoCon Condoleeza Rice (Bush's NSA-turned SecState) was illegally invading Iraq and murdering millions, she attacked Modi over the Godhra riots, basically trying to earn brownie points from Muslims by throwing Modi under a bus. It was then that Sonia quickly pounced with her "Maut Ka Saudaagar" game.

Under Bush, the NeoCons quickly declared "Mission Accomplished" in Afghanistan, running away from there so that they could start their preferred war to destroy Iraq under the fake WMD pretext, at the cost of millions of lives. By doing so, they basically handed Afghanistan over to Pakistan and its Taliban proxies, and we can see how Afghanistan then became America's longest war which the US ultimately lost.

Likewise, under Biden the NeoCons quickly ran away from Afghanistan to start their preferred war on Russia after NeoCon Victoria Nuland's heavy meddling in Ukraine.
So the NeoCons have more aggressive impulse than long term good sense.

Same NeoCons have immediately rehabilitated Pakistan's military dictatorship, pressing them into service for arming Ukraine, after instigating them to overthrown Imran Khan.
As we know, Victoria Nuland met with both Pak Army chief Asim Munir and ISI chief Nadeem Anjum, in a highly conspicuous move.
Simultaneously along with that, Whitehouse immediately started attacking Modi over Khalistani Pannun.

So now we see NeoCons are throwing India under a bus.

Having made an utter mess out of Biden's presidency, the NeoCons are now rushing to switch to a Republican Whitehouse on the coattails of Nikki Haley. In order to succeed with that plan, they need to ensure Trump is legally banned from running for President.
Vivek Ramaswamy has unexpectedly ambushed NeoCon Nikki, and is now attracting their ire with his defense of Donald Trump. I like his Abhimanyu fighting style - he gives a good spirited fight in the face of challenging odds.
The first of the Republican primary votes will happen in 10 days in Iowa, and we'll soon see how much damage he's done to Nikki and her NeoCons, and whether Trump is the firm frontrunner.

[sanman]

Netanyahu's govt is going for an endgame




Once they achieve this, then there will be no more Palestinian problem

[sanman]

Israelis are doing these latest bombings, etc to try to bait the Iranians into some major retaliation/escalation that can be used a pretext for the US to start full-on bombing of Iran.
Iran sees the trap. Same thing happened when US backed Taliban and helped them reach the border with Iran. They wanted to bait the Iranians into war, but it didn't work - the Iranians saw the situation and didn't take the bait.

[hgupta]

Then the Israelis are pretty much evil too as the Hamas are.

[sanman]

Then the Israelis are pretty much evil too as the Hamas are.

I think the Israelis are just desperate to survive. Anyone is going to have a survival instinct - especially after what Europeans did to the Jews.

The thing is that Israel is mainly a symbolic homeland, since its survival absolutely depends on support from Washington.

I see the Washington NeoCons as the dangerous ones, since they're always trying to fight foreign wars on behalf of others by hijacking USA for this.

NeoCons represent a composite of different war lobbies. Yes, that does include the Israel lobby, but it also includes various European lobbies too, among others.
It's the NeoCons who've thrown Indians under a bus by suddenly attacking us over Pannun.

[Cyrano]

Errr... Not so easy to throw Bharat under the bus. Those days are gone and there in lies the rub!

[Lisa]

What a waste. Some 20K+ dead, Gaza destroyed and the Saudi's still want to talk with the Israelis to normalise relations! Worst ROI by Islamic Brotherhood in the history of warfare!

Saudi ambassador to UK offers continued hope for normalisation deal with Israel

https://www.jewishnews.co.uk/saudi-amba ... th-israel/

IMEC is still on.

[Cyrano]

A case going on at the ICJ where South Africa has taken upon itself to accuse Israel of genocide.

SA's lawyer has made his opening arguments. Pretty superficial I'd say, mostly relying on statements made by various govt ministers and officials, not much facts. May be some others did a better job in favour of the case.

Lets see what Israel responds with.

[Tanaji]

What is the reason that South Africa of all people have filed this case? It is not as if they have a significant peaceful population…

None of the Dar-ul-Islam countries have done so, so why South Africa?

[ricky_v]

Little forgotten quirk of history, Israel was one of the biggest supporters of the apartheid regime, sa republic has a hate boner against Israel ever since

[Cyrano]

Oh wow! Didn't know that!!

[Haresh]

Little forgotten quirk of history, Israel was one of the biggest supporters of the apartheid regime, sa republic has a hate boner against Israel ever since

I used to work for a South African bank, Investec.
It was set up by a group of Jewish South African businessmen. They never played by the apartheid rules in who they employed and how the staff interacted and worked together, it had no place in promotions. The current CEO is a black African.

The relationship with the old apartheid SA and Israel was strictly transactional, nothing more. The Iranians under the Shah and the sowdis/gulf nations also traded with them. If my memory is correct I remember reading many years that some Vijayanta tanks were exported whole to SA as scrap.