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by sudarshan
03 Apr 2020 00:14
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4469
Views: 328023

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

[Deaths happen faster (week or two from symptoms), recoveries happen a lot slower (3 to 6 weeks). . How do we know this? Iirc, the Thomas puay study shows that the period from incubation start to death is about 20 days. Cures should take the same time? Look at S. Korea for instance, where they got ...
by sudarshan
02 Apr 2020 22:59
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4469
Views: 328023

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Because by misbehaving in certain ways, they greatly enhance disease spread.
by sudarshan
02 Apr 2020 22:54
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4469
Views: 328023

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Look at the worldometer figures, and focus on the "closed cases". Two weeks ago, the recovery rate was nearly 90%. Then a week ago it dropped to 85% . Now it has come down to 80% . This is a bit alarming. Did you also notice that it started from 58% on Feb 2, before going to almost 95% ar...
by sudarshan
01 Apr 2020 21:08
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4469
Views: 328023

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Interesting article: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41392-020-0148-4 Questions to doctors: * What is this LYM% number? * Can this be boosted through treatment? * If so, is it going to help, i.e., is it likely to be the cause of the severe disease, or is it more like a symptom? Lymphocyte percenta...
by sudarshan
01 Apr 2020 20:43
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4469
Views: 328023

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

DrRatnadip wrote:I have seen many elderly pts in OPD boasting that they are not scared of death and all..


If they are Hindus, ask them if they're ok with facing their next life with the consequences of having passed on the disease to some other vulnerable person, and they will fall in line pretty quickly.
by sudarshan
01 Apr 2020 20:27
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4469
Views: 328023

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Interesting article:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41392-020-0148-4

Questions to doctors:

* What is this LYM% number?
* Can this be boosted through treatment?
* If so, is it going to help, i.e., is it likely to be the cause of the severe disease, or is it more like a symptom?
by sudarshan
01 Apr 2020 01:33
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4469
Views: 328023

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

The line is that "80% of those infected will have mild symptoms, the remaining 20% will progress to severe symptoms." Is this really true? It seemed to be based off China data. The current worldometer data shows 95% of infected people having mild symptoms, and 5% being classified as severe...
by sudarshan
31 Mar 2020 09:46
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Policy Changes in India: Electric Vehicles, Pollution Control, Energy Source Mix, Etc.
Replies: 152
Views: 16349

Re: Policy Changes in India: Electric Vehicles, Pollution Control, Energy Source Mix, Etc.

How is the pollution scene in Indian cities and towns now, with the lock-down in place? Could we have some anecdotes? This is a question of some moment. If pollution is significantly and visibly down (if there are hard numbers, then even better), that would imply: a. That vehicles are a major contri...
by sudarshan
31 Mar 2020 06:12
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4469
Views: 328023

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

^ Don't know if the mods consider that a CT, but that's easy. Get those COVID-19 patients quickly cured and out the door, so that pharma can make money off the routine patients.
by sudarshan
31 Mar 2020 05:47
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4469
Views: 328023

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

https://techstartups.com/2020/03/28/dr-vladimir-zelenko-now-treated-699-coronavirus-patients-100-success-using-hydroxychloroquine-sulfate-zinc-z-pak-update/ Dr. Vladimir Zelenko has now treated 699 coronavirus patients with 100% success using Hydroxychloroquine Sulfate, Zinc and Z-Pak [UPDATES] I j...
by sudarshan
30 Mar 2020 22:32
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 3931
Views: 430914

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

thanks to Tableeghi Jamaat religious conference and I have mixed feelings Yeah, don't want to wish sickness and death on anybody, but seriously, what is it going to take for these idiots to realize that they are not immune just because of their religion? All 300 mil of them seem to be living in som...
by sudarshan
30 Mar 2020 22:27
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4469
Views: 328023

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

There is a lag in reporting figures which makes the data fluctuate. Basically at the same stage (500-1000 cases) Europe and China were doubling every 2-3 days till they went from 500 to 5000 cases a day (in the case of US it continued till it hit 18000/ day. We are increasing in arithmetic progress...
by sudarshan
29 Mar 2020 20:35
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4469
Views: 328023

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Sudarshan-ji, Thanks for your input. Here is my thinking: There are two ways you can model the entire progress of the casualty and/or infected number over a time period. (a) Bio-mathematical approach: Here you call your number at time t as N(t). .... (b) Pure statistical approach: Just assume that ...
by sudarshan
29 Mar 2020 20:24
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4469
Views: 328023

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Thanks for the detailed response Sudarshan. WRT data, From their paper: study used data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths by day from WHO websites and local and national governments in terms of their mean line - I thought it overestimated the death numbers for the last 4 days since their mean line shows...
by sudarshan
29 Mar 2020 20:14
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4469
Views: 328023

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Bart S wrote:Hand sanitizer needs to be about 70% or higher in alcohol content to be effective.


Isn't that with iso-propyl alcohol? Ethanol is way more potent? I could be wrong, just checking. Of course, the king is methanol, but that'll kill the guy as well.
by sudarshan
29 Mar 2020 09:52
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4469
Views: 328023

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

fascinating little study that models prediction of peak and total toll of COVID 19 in the US - can be broken down by state as well: https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections credits to faculty at U Washington. What do mathemagicians on forum think - calling Sudarshan :shock: , Amber and others Add...
by sudarshan
29 Mar 2020 06:07
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India
Replies: 87
Views: 10457

Re: Post-Covid19 World and India

It's a sensitive topic, so I just let it go with getting a few eyeballs on it, hopefully seeding some thought on the topic in several minds. I told myself I'd delete the post after the thread got to 150 views, so *poof*.
by sudarshan
29 Mar 2020 02:26
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4469
Views: 328023

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Hi CyranoDB, welcome to brf. Username has been changed to human sounding name as per forum rules. You can request one of your choice as long as it's a human name. regards Wot saar, not heard of Cyrano De Bergerac? From my silly and cursory data analysis, ably supported by my silly and cursory data ...
by sudarshan
27 Mar 2020 03:40
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4469
Views: 328023

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

^^ Poster "BSR Murthy": I would be interested in the same plot on a linear x-y scale, not the log scale you have used. I am a little more optimistic than some here. It seems like most of the countries with larger numbers of cases (say > 10,000) - including the US - are now in the linear i...
by sudarshan
26 Mar 2020 07:49
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4469
Views: 328023

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

I was curious about Italy's recent past on dealing with common flu. Here are the figures i found - In the winter seasons from 2013/14 to 2016/17, an estimated average of 5,290,000 ILI cases occurred in Italy, corresponding to an incidence of 9%. • More than 68,000 deaths attributable to flu epidemi...
by sudarshan
26 Mar 2020 05:27
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4469
Views: 328023

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Does that Ethiopian guy specify how the world should have acted, or is he generally pontificating? Pollution levels are reportedly down in many Indian cities, from the reports I'm getting. Rather ironic - trying to contain a virus, the overall respiratory health of Indians improves. The IT guys in B...
by sudarshan
26 Mar 2020 03:19
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4469
Views: 328023

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Don't you have to account for the initial number of cases? Meaning - if you had 600 initial cases and after 5 days, it becomes 728, that's an increase of 128 in 5 days. If you had 10 initial cases and it becomes 138 in 5 days, that is also an increase of 128 in 5 days. Is the R0 the same in both ca...
by sudarshan
26 Mar 2020 02:39
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4469
Views: 328023

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Interesting question. Someone should write a paper on this. India was also spared the wrath of the SARS virus. It is not the case just with India but most of the tropical countries. What about the 1918 spanish flu then that it took the life of 12-20 million in India? Without any conclusive proof, i...
by sudarshan
26 Mar 2020 02:23
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4469
Views: 328023

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

GUYS PLEASE GO THROUGH. I am not trying to downplay the seriousness of coronavirus but i have an alternate theory. Just point out if there are flaws in my theorey. .... This will fall in the realm of CT (Conspiracy Theory) and Suraj san will jump on your post, and then on you. Just warning you, bec...
by sudarshan
25 Mar 2020 22:24
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4469
Views: 328023

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

No country so far has tested even 1% of its population. Not Italy (High no of cases, very advanced medical system), Not Switzerland (Italy with a low population), Not SoKo and the GCC countries which have high cases, a small population and a policy of broadening the testing criteria. Testing capaci...
by sudarshan
25 Mar 2020 08:20
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4469
Views: 328023

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

... Given the number calculating R0 is simple. Let us say that after 5 days the number of positive cases identified is 728. Then R0 will be 728-600=128 and 5th root of 128 will be 2.6. That is, just take the number and do the day'th root of that number (minus initial 500). So if the number of days ...
by sudarshan
24 Mar 2020 02:28
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4469
Views: 328023

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

If real people are recovering because of these drugs, then how is it different from a clinical trial? Just that the paperwork hasn't been filled out?
by sudarshan
24 Mar 2020 02:19
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Policy Changes in India: Electric Vehicles, Pollution Control, Energy Source Mix, Etc.
Replies: 152
Views: 16349

Re: Policy Changes in India: Electric Vehicles, Pollution Control, Energy Source Mix, Etc.

I In Blur for a couple of days back in 1995 or so. It took almost 15 minutes for me to cross the road. Are you saying that now is lot worse than then?!!! B'lur should be abandoned. I haven't been to Bangalore for several years now, but from what I hear from friends and relatives, the situation ther...
by sudarshan
23 Mar 2020 02:04
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4469
Views: 328023

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Worldometer playing roulette/ wheel of fortune with US numbers :-? . Yesterday they showed a high number of additional cases for the US, then reduced it by 1300, then increased it back up, and finally moved 2500 of those to the next day. Today they were showing +15,000 cases for the US, now they've ...
by sudarshan
22 Mar 2020 17:17
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4469
Views: 328023

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Surprise. It’s on the AIIMS recommended drug list. And it’s poisonous if you take many doses at once or give a full dose to a child. Children aren’t at risk of death from this disease and so wouldn’t be given the drug anyways. As for the dosage used in malaria, you need 500gms cumulative of chloroq...
by sudarshan
22 Mar 2020 09:48
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4469
Views: 328023

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

I read that Chloroquine shows some indication of fighting the virus. When I was a kid, there was widespread use of this medicine to pre-empt Malaria. Advertisements like "Fever? Maybe Malaria!! Take Chloroquine" on the back of regular "Inland Letter Cards" of postal service. In ...
by sudarshan
22 Mar 2020 09:34
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4469
Views: 328023

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

With any toxin, the mantra is - "dosage matters." Low doses, sufficiently below threshold level, are often even beneficial. Maybe that's the way to build immunity, have sub-toxic exposures to the virus (that's one form of vaccination). But there's a couple of devils in those details - how...
by sudarshan
22 Mar 2020 07:49
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4469
Views: 328023

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Viral load very much matters. If you're going to paw and smooch twenty people a day, in a few days you'll build up a hefty load. In Spain, it seems, you go kissing every female you know, whom you meet (or maybe you don't even need to know her). Italy and France are similar. Pretty sure the old codge...
by sudarshan
22 Mar 2020 04:17
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4469
Views: 328023

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

US cases just went *down* by 1300 on worldometer? Anybody else notice?
by sudarshan
21 Mar 2020 07:35
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4469
Views: 328023

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

^^^ Well, I agree with you that Ae^kx may not be the perfect equation to curve-fit, but the curves do show an exponential form to them, so I used it. I see what happened. A(1+r)^x is not the cumulative value. The cumulative value that we're plotting is actually the sum: A + A*r + A*r^2 + ... A*(r^x...
by sudarshan
21 Mar 2020 06:19
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4469
Views: 328023

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

... EXponential fit of the form y=Ae^kx was used; where exponent k = 0.183 for Italy, 0.256 for Germany and 0.317 for USA. Sure enough, the upward trajectory for USA is much steeper than Italy (this is for # of infected) :eek: . I hope there is no error in my data sheet- I typed all the numbers by ...
by sudarshan
21 Mar 2020 06:02
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4469
Views: 328023

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Cumulative case count never comes down, so doubling time is always a finite (though variable) value with non-zero R0. +1 R0, as long as it is > 0, is irrelevant. What is is the infection rate epsilon. Recursively, it is $R_n = R_{n-1} ( 1 + \epsilon)$ which turns out to be $R_n = R_0 (1+\epsilon)^n...
by sudarshan
21 Mar 2020 05:15
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Policy Changes in India: Electric Vehicles, Pollution Control, Energy Source Mix, Etc.
Replies: 152
Views: 16349

Re: Policy Changes in India: Electric Vehicles, Pollution Control, Energy Source Mix, Etc.

Now that the IT wallahs are working from home in Bangalore, the reports I'm getting is that the roads are back to '80s or '90s levels of traffic, pollution is way down, and the city actually feels livable. Poster Rishirishi has a point, if so.
by sudarshan
19 Mar 2020 00:46
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4469
Views: 328023

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

I wanted to post this study .... – Current R0 rate ~ 3 (one person infects 3 other people. If they do this in ~10 days, it would account for doubling time 1 week). – Drop R0 to 1.5: Doubling time would increase ~4-fold. (* My attestation: That is from 1 week to 4 week) – Drop R0 to 1.25: Doubling t...

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