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by Vayutuvan
26 Mar 2020 03:05
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 3931
Views: 430878

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Adrija wrote:Yeah.............. Treason is unforgivable........... except if you win :D


But then you might lose in the next cycle. Cromwell comes to mind.
by Vayutuvan
26 Mar 2020 02:34
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Real Estate Sector
Replies: 1110
Views: 131715

Re: Indian Real Estate Sector

tandav wrote:A very large amount of problems can be resolved by simply making legislation that Land is not owned by anyone (this was historically the case in India)...


AFAIK, most coop housing societies in Mumbai, especially Navi Mumbai are given the land on a 99 year lease basis.
by Vayutuvan
26 Mar 2020 02:31
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Real Estate Sector
Replies: 1110
Views: 131715

Re: Indian Real Estate Sector

We lack similar projects. Self contained mini-cities run by private corporations. ... Jaypee had a great chance in Noida as they got the land cheap but they floundered it because of their greed....their story is sad. In case of Lavasa, INC held up the project saying there are some environmental iss...
by Vayutuvan
24 Mar 2020 05:57
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4468
Views: 327944

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

manju wrote:
Kati wrote:Pardon me, if this has been posted before:
May be we should popularize "Corona virus is travelling along OBOR"


How about giving it the nickname "Silkorona"?
by Vayutuvan
24 Mar 2020 05:44
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4468
Views: 327944

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

nachiket wrote:Vile Parle.


Airport traffic probably.
by Vayutuvan
24 Mar 2020 05:28
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4468
Views: 327944

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

The AI systems may yield candidates but I know of no convincing demonstration that AI is any better than chance. A fascinating area of enquiry. AI systems are too weak (i.e. too general). Targeted whittling down of synthetic molecules on the super computers of the world is what is needed. They are ...
by Vayutuvan
24 Mar 2020 04:59
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4468
Views: 327944

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

... I see the global economy 'adjusting' to it in a year or so (it always finds a way) and carrying on as before to increase shareholder value and maximize profits (I dont have any fundamental issue with either of these two items, by the way). SriKumar garu, The gravy train will stop when there are...
by Vayutuvan
24 Mar 2020 03:26
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 3931
Views: 430878

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Manish_P wrote:If yes, then why not look at alternate methods. Lethal Injection, Gunshot..


Actually Lethal injection into their butt when they sit in the chair. That is like hanging by their own petard.
by Vayutuvan
24 Mar 2020 01:55
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Policy Changes in India: Electric Vehicles, Pollution Control, Energy Source Mix, Etc.
Replies: 152
Views: 16348

Re: Policy Changes in India: Electric Vehicles, Pollution Control, Energy Source Mix, Etc.

Now that the IT wallahs are working from home in Bangalore, the reports I'm getting is that the roads are back to '80s or '90s levels of traffic, I In Blur for a couple of days back in 1995 or so. It took almost 15 minutes for me to cross the road. Are you saying that now is lot worse than then?!!!...
by Vayutuvan
21 Mar 2020 06:54
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4468
Views: 327944

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

sudarshan wrote:R0 that Disha and I were talking about is actually the "Basic Reproduction Number" -

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number


OK. Thanks for the link. I will go over that.
by Vayutuvan
21 Mar 2020 06:43
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4468
Views: 327944

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Suraj wrote:Why blame them ? Posters right here were advocating people stay in their ancestral towns. I responded saying this, two days ago.


Did you travel in Mumbai locals in 'cattle class' ever?
by Vayutuvan
21 Mar 2020 05:56
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4468
Views: 327944

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

ricky_v wrote:Image

Nice. Thanks.
by Vayutuvan
21 Mar 2020 05:54
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4468
Views: 327944

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

IndraD wrote:70% dead in Italy are men.
Men are also more likely to catch this infection.


Men smoke more than women. Children can't smoke since they cannot buy tobacco products. Possible?
by Vayutuvan
21 Mar 2020 05:52
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4468
Views: 327944

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

^^^ So will these lamps (UV-C) be useful in disinfecting, say, Fedex or Amazon packages, or any 'dead' surfaces like plastic, steel etc. If this epidemic continues into Sept. some 'industiral' means other than manual hand-wiping chairs, offices, with tissue will need to be developed. I see the imme...
by Vayutuvan
21 Mar 2020 05:05
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4468
Views: 327944

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Cumulative case count never comes down, so doubling time is always a finite (though variable) value with non-zero R0. +1 R0, as long as it is > 0, is irrelevant. What is is the infection rate epsilon. Recursively, it is $R_n = R_{n-1} ( 1 + \epsilon)$ which turns out to be $R_n = R_0 (1+\epsilon)^n...
by Vayutuvan
20 Mar 2020 07:28
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4468
Views: 327944

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

SwamyG wrote:

My midwest state reported lower new cases today....there were rumors of reducing the tests. Eshwara !!!!


Better that people look at JHU stats at CNN. Current status is 13K infected, not 11.7K as reported at this tracking site.
by Vayutuvan
20 Mar 2020 07:26
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4468
Views: 327944

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Watch for any locality with high infection rate but low fatality rate, South Korea perhaps. The sequence needs to be compared with Wuhan strain. It might be an idea, unless the genetic similarity is one or two mutations away, to arrange for direct flights from that locality to the major population ...
by Vayutuvan
18 Mar 2020 22:00
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4468
Views: 327944

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

We have to find a vaccine by november. Delhi's temperatures start falling below 90 F in november. Even for the rest of the world, they have time till October. Relying on weather is not a strategy. The virus can continue to spread in the Southern Hemisphere while it is summer here, and then spread a...
by Vayutuvan
18 Mar 2020 21:48
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4468
Views: 327944

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

One option in India to avoid COVID-19 is to migrate to rural areas to avoid international returnees. A few people in BLR I know have done so. exactly. lessen the density. cities are are horribly overcrowded. it was impossible to walk in Mumbai without bumping into a half dozen people as long back a...
by Vayutuvan
16 Mar 2020 06:40
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4468
Views: 327944

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Cain Marko wrote:^Point is even at 1.9%, it's orders of magnitude worse than the flu, no?


Yes, but if the denominator goes up (with increased testing), the order of magnitude might disappear.
by Vayutuvan
16 Mar 2020 06:36
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4468
Views: 327944

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

... herd immunity builds up ... Hanumadu garu, herd immunity may not develop, for one. As for the vaccine, I would rather that a cure is developed at the same time as a vaccine. I don't enough biophysics/biochemistry to say which one is easier to develop though. Resources would be concentrated by a...
by Vayutuvan
16 Mar 2020 06:22
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4468
Views: 327944

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

The schools have extended spring break for another week. The latest we hear is that the children will be taught through online classes. Most offices have asked folks to work from home indefinitely. The question is whether the Internet can take all this load? School and university education delivery...
by Vayutuvan
16 Mar 2020 06:17
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4468
Views: 327944

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

SriKumar wrote:Yes, I had quickly scanned this paper and noted its findings, particularly that it stays for 12 hours + on steel and Polypropylene.


I haven't scanned the paper yet. Does that study include how the virii population (decrease, I presume) over time? Otherwise, it is almost useless, IMHO.
by Vayutuvan
16 Mar 2020 06:00
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4468
Views: 327944

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

THere is a lesson in here for India. Culturally Italy has similarities with India where traditionally family and friends bonds are strong, and they are relied on, much more so than the government ... SriKumar avargal, While there are similarities, there are also differences which might actually ser...
by Vayutuvan
16 Mar 2020 05:56
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4468
Views: 327944

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

SwamyG wrote:However, looks like generally the governments and administration (even down to the cop level) thnings are working admirably. Jai ho.


Swamygal, long time no see.

saar, Agra isolation ward pics don't give one that much of confidence in govt. and admin.
by Vayutuvan
16 Mar 2020 05:09
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4468
Views: 327944

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Summit Joins the Fight Against the Coronavirus March 6, 2020 With the coronavirus sweeping the globe, tech conferences and supply chains are being hit hard – but now, tech is hitting back. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) has announced that Summit, the most powerful publicly ranked supercompute...
by Vayutuvan
15 Mar 2020 07:47
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Physics Discussion Thread
Replies: 2609
Views: 134377

Re: Physics Discussion Thread

PHD is just a degree what did it mean during the time of gauss? even at the time of Ramanujan with hardy, hardy didn't have PhD himself.
by Vayutuvan
15 Mar 2020 07:45
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4468
Views: 327944

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

simple mathematical models, however solid that are, may not give the right picture unless nonlinear nature of the real situation is not captured in the model. Since the nonlinear nature of the real situation is difficult to model, it is never captured in the model and then people wonder why the mod...
by Vayutuvan
15 Mar 2020 07:41
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4468
Views: 327944

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Chinese are inveterate smokers, possibly contributing to susceptibility. Again data are lacking. Hope Italians release data on smoking and risk. Anyway might be good to warn Indians of cigs and beedis in preparation for the coming storm. Even a few days or weeks may improve lung toilet and function...
by Vayutuvan
15 Mar 2020 07:37
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4468
Views: 327944

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

nachiket wrote:It is better to proceed with the assumption that temperature has no effect and prepare for the worst.

in that case, resource usage will be underoptimized.
by Vayutuvan
15 Mar 2020 07:35
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4468
Views: 327944

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Ji, you of all people (no offence, I mean that in the best possible way) should know the pitfalls of these kinds of calculations. ... Actually, the scheme will run out of steam way before it gets to that Hope that makes sense. in short it is a system of nonlinear diffeqs. same with rabbits breeding...
by Vayutuvan
13 Mar 2020 10:22
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4468
Views: 327944

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

sudarshan ji, you forgot the most important thang - bee. "where is the beer?"
by Vayutuvan
13 Mar 2020 06:54
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4468
Views: 327944

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

rsingh wrote:Oban or Taliskar not good enough? My favourite is Glenroths. Every evening is going to be special from now on. :mrgreen:


Alcohol is dehydrating.
by Vayutuvan
13 Mar 2020 06:37
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4468
Views: 327944

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

All good things. However, the cynic in me says if you are going to get it, nothing will stop it. Remember, the virus lives on solid surfaces for up to 3 days as was shown in the study quoted here. A certain amount of dose of the virus is required to get infected. That is what I read about HIV. I do...
by Vayutuvan
13 Mar 2020 06:29
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4468
Views: 327944

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

vera_k wrote:If you are employed, work with your corporate office on securing a supply of masks from 3M.


Yes but I work from home all the time. I have been out of home only three times in the last fortnight and I live in that part of the US where it is quite sparsely populated.
by Vayutuvan
13 Mar 2020 06:27
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4468
Views: 327944

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

kvraghav wrote:Shouldn't this be the other way around?
They should choose the old since they have the most chances of fatality. This might explain why Italy has such high mortality rate.


No. Since we are talking just stats, old will die quickly thus making space for newer cases.
by Vayutuvan
13 Mar 2020 06:16
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4468
Views: 327944

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

sanjaykumar wrote:It is in fact not necessary to test for this virus except for epidemiological purposes. The reason should be obvious.


Reason is not obvious to me. :oops: Is it because there is cure and there is also no vaccine as yet?
by Vayutuvan
13 Mar 2020 06:07
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4468
Views: 327944

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Cain Marko wrote:How so? Next fall will be in September no? Wonlee 6 months away.


Oh, you meant this fall. Still, more will be known, right?
by Vayutuvan
13 Mar 2020 06:05
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4468
Views: 327944

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

About Temperature thing: Jury is still out - We don't even know if CV will behave like other corona virus and we don't know much about other types in any case. From what I have read/heard etc - there is no (or very little) evidence that temperature has much effect once you become sick. What is the ...

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