Search found 1894 matches

by Shanmukh
29 May 2019 21:11
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Kerala, Andhra and Tamil Nadu - news and strategy thread
Replies: 408
Views: 26578

Re: Kerala, Andhra and Tamil Nadu - news and strategy thread

Over the past few weeks, I have been working on a project to estimate the number of Christians in Andhra. Here is my attempt with numbers. Welcome feedback. This is a maximalist interpretation of the Christian numbers in Andhra. Myself, I think it is about 2-3% lower than the numbers I have projecte...
by Shanmukh
26 May 2019 09:04
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Kerala, Andhra and Tamil Nadu - news and strategy thread
Replies: 408
Views: 26578

Re: Kerala, Andhra and Tamil Nadu - news and strategy thread

It also make interesting to see how Modi can satisfy whole North India voters if there is any global economic downturn. He was damn lucky there were no global economic problems during last 5 years. @ShyamSP-garu, Sorry for this lateral intervention, but I need to contact you over a project I am wor...
by Shanmukh
19 May 2019 20:57
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 470435

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

India-Today - AxisMyIndia 12-14 to BJP Assam has only 14 seats and 3 are muslim majority. HBS himself is giving 9-11 to BJP. This India-Today poll is suspect. Only Dhubri is ~65-70% Muslim. Other two [Barpeta and Karimganj] are just marginally Muslim [50-55% Muslim]. If vote is getting split betwee...
by Shanmukh
17 May 2019 02:12
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 470435

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

nachiket have you walked in her shoes? Ab Hua to hua. BJP has distanced itself from her statement. There were innumerable Congress secondary leaders (MSA, SAM, Doggy etc) making worse comments on NaMo and all RaGa has to say is they should apologize and he gets away. But buck stops with Modi for hi...
by Shanmukh
17 May 2019 01:57
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 470435

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Long time ago Atri/Kaal described the different types of power enumerated in the Puranas Ken Boulding also wrote a book on power. The three Telugu leaders want to use their political power to protect their money power. They know whats coming in the pipeline wrt to their money power. They cannot sur...
by Shanmukh
12 May 2019 03:38
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 470435

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

@Picklu-dada, I very much doubt that CPM will come second in any of the seats this time in the Kolkata region [the only possibilities are those of the south 24 Parganas region [seats like Mathurapur, Joynagar, Diamond Harbour, etc] where BJP barely exists. You are right that BJP won't win many in th...
by Shanmukh
12 May 2019 00:20
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 470435

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

BTW, Axis had done an opinion poll that Turdesai did not allow to be telecasted (as he stopped the disastrous pappu's TV interview). Axis guys can only squirm and claim they are only doing exit (though he let out some findings). Turdesai must have forced Axis saying that since we have bank rolled y...
by Shanmukh
12 May 2019 00:18
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 470435

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Btw I have been reading this gent since 1990s (was eagerly waiting for his take), he is on record of getting all elections right since 1977, ALL!! He also predicted some states, more remarkably the last one of UP, correct). At the Sangam, perhaps you get the microcosm of India. I believe the wire a...
by Shanmukh
12 May 2019 00:16
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 470435

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Yes I know :) I posted during the 2014 thread that I expect the situation in KL to get worse for BJP before it gets better , not just because they need to improve party apparatus , but because their natural vote bloc is the left vote. Those LDF people are very religious and grounded and their suppo...
by Shanmukh
11 May 2019 23:56
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 470435

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Pagalika has Twitter posts indicating astonishment at Red to Saffron change in WB, and Turdesai , who twitter says is sitting on Axis live exit poll data , is taking about return majority . I won’t quote their articles but it’s easy to find . BJP has taken most of the middle class vote in Bengal, w...
by Shanmukh
11 May 2019 22:04
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 470435

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

BRF has been saying this since April and now the rest of media is catching up on this it seems. The Prime Minister who is known for coining quirky slogans, tossed another one at the rally, he said, "Chup chap kamal pe chhap" and Booth booth se TMC saaf." This means "vote for BJP...
by Shanmukh
07 May 2019 08:29
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 470435

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

guys, are we in a echo chamber? 543, Chintamani, savyasachi..these guys are doing technical analysis, with some inputs (some in form of limited survey, not a true exit poll) - voting share by segments etc. Today's Chanakya guys input was significant that NDA (not BJP) is some short of 272. I am mor...
by Shanmukh
07 May 2019 07:41
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 470435

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Shanmukh The CPM is disintegrating big time and almost all the CPM's urban middle class vote is moving to the BJP. The Bengali middle class has made the decisive move to the BJP. There is, definitely, an undercurrent in favour of the BJP. This is a very significant observation. Do you know why the ...
by Shanmukh
07 May 2019 04:41
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 470435

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

vijayk wrote:I heard Telangana might get up to 5 seats for BJP ...

Lot of sources said TN has a surprise surprise for DMK too ...


Wow! Very interesting! Which 5 seats are people predicting for BJP in Telangana? I had given up hope of BJP winning even Secunderabad .....
by Shanmukh
07 May 2019 04:23
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 470435

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Shanmukh How is it going in Bengal? Whats your take on the 5 Phases so far? Hard to guess, Ramana-garu. This is, realistically speaking, BJP's first big election in the state where they are in contest in nearly every seat. The CPM is disintegrating big time and almost all the CPM's urban middle cla...
by Shanmukh
07 May 2019 04:07
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 470435

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Vote shares will not transfer perfectly. What I was trying to show was that between 2014 and 2017, the BJP lost popularity in UP. Some of that might have to do with demonetisation. If Yogi Adityanath has governed well, perhaps the BJP vote share in 2019 might go up. Personally, I think his language...
by Shanmukh
01 May 2019 19:04
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Internal Security Watch
Replies: 4293
Views: 424262

Re: Internal Security Watch

Not sure if this belongs here, but there are very serious security implications arising from this article by TrueIndology, who has narrated what has happened to him. If the mods think this belongs elsewhere, please do move it. Basically, a suspended Babu has enough power to get Twitter to suspend a ...
by Shanmukh
29 Apr 2019 23:03
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 470435

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Rampur is near Muslim majority [49% Muslim]. All he needs is 1% of the votes to transfer to win. How many of them are Shia? How many Sunnis has Azam Khan pissed off by his high handed methods? Does he face a strong vote-katwa? How well funded is his opponent? All this population level analysis show...
by Shanmukh
29 Apr 2019 22:03
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 470435

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Let me play Dilbu here and do a what-if scenario. This is based upon nightmare of 2004. What if after all the noise on SM and BRF, NDA barely is able to cross 272 with BJP left high and dry at 235-245. Do you think some of the partners would jump the ship and join some front with a pliable PM. Afte...
by Shanmukh
29 Apr 2019 21:56
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 470435

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

What are you guys smoking.. Some of those numbers are hopelelessly optimistic and borne out of wishful thinking. The SP-BSP alliance which was formed on the back of Cambs Analytika profiling of the individual UP wards, seems to have transferred their votes cleanly . If this were the case, why is Az...
by Shanmukh
29 Apr 2019 21:49
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 470435

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

The lowest was Bommanahalli at 48% voting. After that, it was KR Puram at 50%. Neither can be said to be a middle class stronghold. In fact, middle class strongholds like Jayanagar, Padmanabhanagar and Basavanagudi saw 57-60% voting in Bengaluru. Even on the day of polling, the lowest actual turnou...
by Shanmukh
29 Apr 2019 20:36
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 470435

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Ramana-garu, The turnout in Bengaluru has been more or less the same as last time. Last time the figures were Bengaluru North - 56.5% (2014), 54.66 (2019) Bengaluru Central - 55.6% (2014), 54.3 (2019) Bengaluru South - 55.7% (2014), 53.8% (2019). Except in Bengaluru South where the factional feudin...
by Shanmukh
29 Apr 2019 19:33
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 470435

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

The low turnout from the IT sector during the elections in bangalore has finally caught the eyes of some founders. They have now said that voting holidays are given very specifically for voting and those employees who return without the inked finger will be terminated immediately. Also, I have had ...
by Shanmukh
26 Apr 2019 01:16
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 470435

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Not true. Anywhere north of KL, TN you are likely to get lynched if you do it openly. Even in rural TN, you would get lynched. Hindu villages can be and often are, very ruthless against cow killers. OTOH, in Jihadi and EJ areas of all states, it goes on quite openly. These areas, though part of Ind...
by Shanmukh
24 Apr 2019 01:56
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 470435

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

From Dr PP. If true will send him money. He can get ghee shakkar Big shock today, Mallikarjun Kharge, the leader of the UPA in the parliament is trailing in Gulbarga. He was leading throughout the day because of mass deletion of Brahmin, Lingayat sounding names from voter list, yet we believe the c...
by Shanmukh
23 Apr 2019 02:16
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 470435

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Does anyone else think something smells here? https://www.mynation.com/video/india-news/5-jds-workers-among-dead-in-sri-lanka-blasts-2-missing-pqcozw 5 JDS workers among dead in Sri Lanka blasts, 2 missing 22, Apr 2019, 12:34 PM IST Bengaluru: Seven JD(S) workers who travelled to Sri Lanka on a vac...
by Shanmukh
22 Apr 2019 23:49
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 470435

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Even in your somewhat conservative analysis: -50 in existing strongholds and +30 in virgin territory: That Puts BJP at ~260 with NDA at comfortable 272+ position..? So is Panic called for? Panic? Where did I suggest panic? I just commented that the numbers of the satta bazaar that were published by...
by Shanmukh
22 Apr 2019 23:28
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 470435

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

IndraD wrote:can this be atoned with gains in Bengal, Odisha, South India & NE?


They can gain around 25-30 seats from the four regions [this is the best case]. It is hard for them to make up more than that.
by Shanmukh
22 Apr 2019 23:26
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 470435

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

In 2014, BJP won 25/25 in Rajasthan. This time it is likely to be 18-20. In 2014, BJP won 26/26 in Gujarat. This time it is likey to be 22-23. In 2014, BJP won 22/40 in Bihar. This time, they are contesting only 17, and are likely to win 14-15. In 2014, BJP won 23/48 in Maharashtra. This time, it i...
by Shanmukh
22 Apr 2019 21:12
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 470435

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Basically, it is going to come down to this. BJP will lose ~50 seats [at least] of the 282 seats they won last time. and This is assuming that the UP results go well for BJP and it does not lose >15 seats. seem to be mutually contradictory. you have given a break-up for possible seats in S, E &...
by Shanmukh
22 Apr 2019 19:51
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 470435

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

I have a Satta Bazaar estimate putting 299/350 for BJP/NDA. It's in Hindi. भाजपा.         = 299 सहयोगी।       =    51 *एनडीए -     = 350* *महाराष्ट्र (48)* = भाजपा -25 सहयोगी -16 *गुजरात (26)* = बीजेपी -26 *मध्य प्रदेश (29)* = भाजपा -25 *राजस्थान - (25)* = बीजेपी -22 *पंजाब (13)* = भाजपा- 4 सहयोगी ...
by Shanmukh
09 Apr 2019 08:41
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 470435

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Here is a survey by Mathrubhumi for 19/20 seats in Kerala [For some strange reason, they have not given the Kottayam survey]. https://www.mathrubhumi.com/election/2019/lok-sabha/news/mathrubhumi-survey-1.3712658 According to this survey, BJP is leading in Thiruvananthapuram by 8%vote, getting 40% o...
by Shanmukh
09 Apr 2019 08:20
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 470435

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Here is a survey by Mathrubhumi for 19/20 seats in Kerala [For some strange reason, they have not given the Kottayam survey]. https://www.mathrubhumi.com/election/2019/lok-sabha/news/mathrubhumi-survey-1.3712658 According to this survey, BJP is leading in Thiruvananthapuram by 8%vote, getting 40% of...
by Shanmukh
23 Mar 2019 15:32
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Levant crisis - III
Replies: 11859
Views: 832238

Re: Levant crisis - III

Apparently, ISIS has lost its last stronghold [Baghouz].

https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/23/middleea ... index.html

So what is going to happen next in Syria? Any ideas?
by Shanmukh
27 Feb 2019 17:15
Forum: Military Issues Archive
Topic: Indian Forces Strikes Pakistan Terrorist Camps
Replies: 2210
Views: 135412

Re: Indian Forces Strikes Pakistan Terrorist Camps

I am not going to second guess the IAF about the disposition of the planes and how they have to fight. They know far more than we civilians do about fighting wars. And anyway, in war, you cannot plan for every single eventuality. Let use see the results thus far and tabulate them. 1) IAF attacks Jih...
by Shanmukh
27 Feb 2019 00:16
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards
Replies: 428
Views: 53129

Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Announce location and time of bombing raids? So that the AA/ PAF can be ready? That's what I meant by the genuflective tendency of civilian netas who think they are in RamaRajya. I would bomb at the deepest hour of the pre-dawn to catch as many as possible in their beds or goat-sheds. Then you need...
by Shanmukh
25 Feb 2019 23:09
Forum: Military Issues Archive
Topic: Upcoming India-Pakistan War - Force Balances, Strategy, Tactics, etc.
Replies: 200
Views: 13155

Re: Upcoming India-Pakistan War - Force Balances, Strategy, Tactics, etc.

@Ramana, Thanks for starting this thread. I am going to focus on one major point of this potential war - the war aims and objectives. The most important point which we need to answer is - what is our objective? What exactly do we want to achieve from the war? What is the final result we desire to se...
by Shanmukh
18 Feb 2019 10:35
Forum: Military Issues Archive
Topic: Pulwama Attack
Replies: 2282
Views: 167521

Re: Pulwama Attack

Three Jihadi students, Manzoor, Mushtaq, and Maqbool [all three from Kashmir, BTW], attack a fellow student, Koushik Debnath, over the latter's Facebook post supporting the army in BENGALURU. Here are the ironies - both Manzoor and Maqbool were admitted under Prime MInister's Scholarship Scheme [for...
by Shanmukh
17 Feb 2019 22:55
Forum: Military Issues Archive
Topic: Pulwama Attack
Replies: 2282
Views: 167521

Re: Pulwama Attack

Supratik Ji , Suffice to say that the Doval doctrine has failed at least in Kashmir and also wrt Pakistan. While we never had any major terror attack on civilian target till now , but two major and horrendous attacks have taken place on our security forces.The situation in Kashmir has gone from bad...

Go to advanced search