Search found 2131 matches

by Shanmukh
18 Sep 2023 06:12
Forum: Strategy, Politics & International Relations Forum
Topic: Road to the 2024 Elections in India-1
Replies: 3327
Views: 772936

Re: Road to the 2024 Elections in India-1

What I am really interested in is if anyone can analyse what is happening in Telangana in detail. I will do Telangana numbers also after the VS23 elections, but for now, anyone's predictions for Telangana will be welcome.
by Shanmukh
18 Sep 2023 06:11
Forum: Strategy, Politics & International Relations Forum
Topic: Road to the 2024 Elections in India-1
Replies: 3327
Views: 772936

Re: Road to the 2024 Elections in India-1

Please add another set of inputs regarding KA - the BJP in the assembly election was profoundly unpopular and had no leader. They were facing infighting and severe corruption charges. Allegations of backstabbing by Yaddi and mass shifting of Lingayath votes were also there. Other than Lingayath vot...
by Shanmukh
18 Sep 2023 06:05
Forum: Strategy, Politics & International Relations Forum
Topic: Road to the 2024 Elections in India-1
Replies: 3327
Views: 772936

Re: Road to the 2024 Elections in India-1

Tanaji wrote: 18 Sep 2023 01:05 Shanmukhji, very interesting analysis many thanks for the effort. What source are you using for the numbers?
Karnataka - VS23 election results, taken from ECI website.
Bengal - VS21 election results, taken from ECI website.
by Shanmukh
17 Sep 2023 23:03
Forum: Strategy, Politics & International Relations Forum
Topic: Road to the 2024 Elections in India-1
Replies: 3327
Views: 772936

Re: Road to the 2024 Elections in India-1

Bengal Looking at the BJP's panchayat performance and the performance in the recent bypolls, it is safe to assume that the BJP has more or less returned to the shape it was in in VS21 in Bengal. Keeping this assumption, let us see where the BJP is above AITC in the Lok Sabha constituencies. BJP is ...
by Shanmukh
17 Sep 2023 21:54
Forum: Strategy, Politics & International Relations Forum
Topic: Road to the 2024 Elections in India-1
Replies: 3327
Views: 772936

Re: Road to the 2024 Elections in India-1

I have been running a few numbers for Karnataka and Bengal [two states whose political topography I am somewhat familiar with] and will do the same for Telangana once the elections are over. For the time being, let me, without further ado, post what the numbers say for the 28 seats of Karnataka and ...
by Shanmukh
15 Jul 2022 10:06
Forum: Military Issues & History Forum
Topic: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy
Replies: 3952
Views: 1522945

Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

All the Russian channels (RIA/Tass, etc) are reporting that Seversk is under Russian/LDPR operational control. https://ria.ru/20220714/seversk-1802344760.html However, I haven't seen any photographs of Russians doing their little dance in front of the mayor's office .... What do people think? If Sev...
by Shanmukh
14 Jul 2022 18:18
Forum: Military Issues & History Forum
Topic: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout
Replies: 2709
Views: 621969

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Watch this space. Indirect sanctions..... possible Yellen’s Deputy Rejects Secondary Sanctions for Russia Oil Cap Adeyemo says he doesn’t see a need for secondary sanctions Deputy Treasury chief cites incentive to join oil-price cap Won't it destroy confidence in US? The insane country that sanctio...
by Shanmukh
14 Jul 2022 17:34
Forum: Military Issues & History Forum
Topic: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout
Replies: 2709
Views: 621969

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

^^^^^ If true, then the Ukrainians withdrew to defend Bharmuk(sp?) If it is true, then the Ukraineans would have withdrawn farther west and towards Slavyansk-Kramatorsk, not south towards Bakhmut - getting to which will be very hard with the Russians already so close to the Bakhmut-Seversk highway....
by Shanmukh
14 Jul 2022 11:57
Forum: Military Issues & History Forum
Topic: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout
Replies: 2709
Views: 621969

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Tass claims that Russian [well, LPR, to be precise] troops have already entered the city of Seversk and it is under their operational control. If this is true, things seem to be moving fast now. https://tass.com/world/1479721 Here is the original Tass report in Russian. Says that the united troops o...
by Shanmukh
09 Jul 2022 10:50
Forum: Military Issues & History Forum
Topic: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout
Replies: 2709
Views: 621969

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Conspiracy theory alert. The western world will trigger a multi year recession to collapse oil prices in order to defeat Russia. That will have the additional benefit of reducing the European and North American population by 25 to 30% because of large scale hunger and starvation. That will take car...
by Shanmukh
05 Jul 2022 14:27
Forum: Strategy, Politics & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 14901
Views: 2781760

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Bigger question is why did Hindus follow this man so blindly? There was no proper mass communication network in those days, no social media to influence people, no widespread radio services to reach masses, very few could read newspapers. So why is it that Hindus, like the sheep, started blindly fo...
by Shanmukh
05 Jul 2022 11:57
Forum: Strategy, Politics & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 14901
Views: 2781760

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

I do also feel that Namo is slowly moving away from the center stage and worried about his legacy. So far the only nations that have awarded him are the two peaceful ones. Everyone else has treaded him like an untouchable so it might be playing in his mind too. TBH, most of hindutvavadis are probab...
by Shanmukh
05 Jul 2022 09:59
Forum: Military Issues & History Forum
Topic: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout
Replies: 2709
Views: 621969

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Mods: Please move this to the appropriate section, if this doesn't belong here. Here is Maria Zakharova's view on what cancel culture really is. The video has English subtitles, so it is easy to follow, but it is better in her Russian original. The woman has a very good clarity of thought. https://w...
by Shanmukh
23 Jun 2022 08:19
Forum: Strategy, Politics & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 14901
Views: 2781760

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Shanmukh So, what changed between the end of 2019 and 2021? I can think of only one major change - the rise of the Biden sarkar. So, after the rise of Biden sarkar, Modi government has decided, for whatever reasons, that they should appease the enemies of Hindutva. You are dead wrong on this. And w...
by Shanmukh
21 Jun 2022 04:28
Forum: Strategy, Politics & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 14901
Views: 2781760

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

BTW, Murthy-garu and Rudradev-acharya,
If you both are interested, we can write up a few proposals I have in mind to different state governments. Do let me know if you are - we can take this elsewhere and discuss.
by Shanmukh
21 Jun 2022 03:52
Forum: Strategy, Politics & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 14901
Views: 2781760

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Is it necessary for Hindus to articulate a vision? Yes. But it is not sufficient, at least the way the visions are articulated today. “Just bulldoze (so to speak) the BIF” is not a workable vision, if it means you just issue a fatwa to the government to make your dream come true, and then sink deep...
by Shanmukh
21 Jun 2022 03:08
Forum: Strategy, Politics & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 14901
Views: 2781760

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Not true. There are many books even, which envision a Hindu rashtra. Sure, they have different specific agendas. But, this is no different from the differences between the Communists. Interesting, and inspires the question of why Hindutva in India utterly failed ~100 years ago, while all manner of ...
by Shanmukh
20 Jun 2022 22:04
Forum: Strategy, Politics & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 14901
Views: 2781760

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

This is where your example of Kerensky and the Bolsheviks throws the contrast into sharp relief. The Bolsheviks knew EXACTLY what they wanted (dictatorship of the proletariat, etc.) thanks to Marx, and they knew EXACTLY how they would implement it thanks to Lenin and others. The alternative to Kere...
by Shanmukh
20 Jun 2022 21:13
Forum: Strategy, Politics & International Relations Forum
Topic: India-EU News & Analysis
Replies: 1780
Views: 353896

Re: India-EU News & Analysis

The Spectator Index @spectatorindex Germany reports annual producer inflation of 33.6% in May, the highest on record. https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1538834350141501440 Is it just me or does it seem a tad high .... But seriously, I wish Suraj-san or other economic gurus could decipher the...
by Shanmukh
13 Jun 2022 17:03
Forum: Military Issues & History Forum
Topic: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy
Replies: 3952
Views: 1522945

Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

It looks like Severodonetsk is done, and Slovyansk and Lysychansk are being attacked. Essentially, everything north and east of the Siversky-Donets river is being taken over, and there will be a lot of free troops once Severodonetsk is taken, and also, the entire railroad in the region becomes freed...
by Shanmukh
29 May 2022 09:42
Forum: Military Issues & History Forum
Topic: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout
Replies: 2709
Views: 621969

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

If Russia intends to landlock Ukraine then it will go ahead with the advance prior to completing the liberation of Donetsk as Luhansk is almost complete now. Once Donetsk is liberated too then Donbas is free and they are far too committed to end the SMO as this is the main stated objective. So my 2...
by Shanmukh
29 May 2022 08:10
Forum: Military Issues & History Forum
Topic: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout
Replies: 2709
Views: 621969

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

There are a few things to be noted here. Russia is integrating the southern regions - Zaporozhie, Kherson, etc into its administration. However, they are not doing the same thing in the north - Izyum and Kupyansk are still working as in the previous cases. This indicates to me one of the two possibl...
by Shanmukh
29 May 2022 07:58
Forum: Strategy, Politics & International Relations Forum
Topic: Iran News and Discussions
Replies: 3299
Views: 552940

Re: Iran News and Discussions

Namaskaar to all, How is it that Iran has a nominal GDP of 1.4-1.7 trillion now? They had 600 billion in 2018 .... https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2022/April/weo-report?c=512,612,911,912,419,611,469,915,429,433,439,916,443,917,446,672,682,686,449,564,453,456,726,732,463,923,744,...
by Shanmukh
25 May 2022 09:10
Forum: Strategy, Politics & International Relations Forum
Topic: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]
Replies: 5804
Views: 861093

Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Russia is basically slamming the door on the West. Lavrov says they will pursue a deeper cooperation with China. This has huge implications.

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/world ... 62601.html
by Shanmukh
25 May 2022 05:34
Forum: Military Issues & History Forum
Topic: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout
Replies: 2709
Views: 621969

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

What are the long term implications of this war on Russia. Ukraine is a big country and rus is not aiming to occupy it fully. Will it cause a decades long insurgency and permanent headache for Russia, fuelled by some very powerful nations. All these war crimes being committed, surely there will be ...
by Shanmukh
24 May 2022 05:54
Forum: Strategy, Politics & International Relations Forum
Topic: Indo-UK News & Discussions- June 2017
Replies: 5560
Views: 1509892

Re: Indo-UK News & Discussions- June 2017

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-10831007/PETER-HITCHENS-England-leave-UK-embrace-golden-future.html There you go! England should leave the UK and become `restored'. Hitchens points out that England has everything that a country wants. May I make a small suggestion? They should announce bu...
by Shanmukh
23 May 2022 18:07
Forum: Military Issues & History Forum
Topic: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout
Replies: 2709
Views: 621969

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

I have lived in Russia and done business with Russia and Ukraine for a decade. As someone with an interest in Geopolitics, I probably understand Russia better than any other country barring India. I completely agree with the above points. I'd like to put them in a more nuanced way 1. Russia would i...
by Shanmukh
23 May 2022 17:20
Forum: Military Issues & History Forum
Topic: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout
Replies: 2709
Views: 621969

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Poland being part of NATO thinks they can do whatever others can't., more likely trying to chew on more that can fit its mouth. After all, historically Russia has invaded Poland at every turn ! they think they have some opportunity to get back. .. too many agendas., too many cooks ..the pot is gett...
by Shanmukh
20 May 2022 23:02
Forum: Military Issues & History Forum
Topic: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout
Replies: 2709
Views: 621969

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Since the early 2000's Ukraine wanted to move away from Russian influence in an aggressive way as they feel that a weakened Russia is their one opportunity they truly had in the last 100+ years. It's not like UKR's want to hurt Russia, they just want to have nothing to do with Russia and frankly I ...
by Shanmukh
19 May 2022 17:52
Forum: Military Issues & History Forum
Topic: India's R&D in Defence DRDO, PSUs and Private Sector
Replies: 5226
Views: 1441680

Re: India's R&D in Defence DRDO, PSUs and Private Sector

PS: If there are very specific military indigenisation questions, they might be willing to ask those as well [but I cannot promise this, though I will try]. Let's try to raise following points: 1. Why did we never commissioned any flying testbed for a project of this nature? Now with 4 Boeing dereg...
by Shanmukh
19 May 2022 17:52
Forum: Strategy, Politics & International Relations Forum
Topic: Indo-UK News & Discussions- June 2017
Replies: 5560
Views: 1509892

Re: Indo-UK News & Discussions- June 2017

Sorry if this has already been posted, but I came across this gem today ... https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/16055070/sas-commandos-escape-taliban-burqas/ Apparently, the British SAS escaped the Telebunnies in burkhas in September .... I thought this was the province of the Pakistanis. Looks like the w...
by Shanmukh
11 May 2022 19:05
Forum: Military Issues & History Forum
Topic: India's R&D in Defence DRDO, PSUs and Private Sector
Replies: 5226
Views: 1441680

Re: India's R&D in Defence DRDO, PSUs and Private Sector

Hello folks, Been in touch with a few MPs (both BJP and non-BJP), with whom I have been chatting since a few days. I asked about the Kaveri engine and its funding and current status. They have no clue about it at all [not militarily inclined], but are willing to ask questions of the government about...
by Shanmukh
08 May 2022 09:58
Forum: Strategy, Politics & International Relations Forum
Topic: Indo-UK News & Discussions- June 2017
Replies: 5560
Views: 1509892

Re: Indo-UK News & Discussions- June 2017

The Sinn Fein becomes the largest party in Northern Ireland. Does this mean more bombs in Little Britain? Will Occupied Scotland, Annexed Wales and Subjugated Northern Ireland get to move away, so that the Sheikhdom of Londonistan becomes a more likely thing? https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ire...
by Shanmukh
07 Apr 2022 11:11
Forum: Strategy, Politics & International Relations Forum
Topic: Indo-UK News & Discussions- June 2017
Replies: 5560
Views: 1509892

Re: Indo-UK News & Discussions- June 2017

One of the arguments against the quantum of loot, that Britain tries to prop up to the rest of the world, is that there wasn't much that India had, for it to loot. This is a fallacy. The Indian share of World GDP is well documented and studied and prior to the Brits, India was the leading economy i...
by Shanmukh
07 Apr 2022 10:41
Forum: Strategy, Politics & International Relations Forum
Topic: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]
Replies: 5804
Views: 861093

Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Sitting on a time bomb while smoking a cigarette. One can literally see the change in demographics in every town, every neighborhood, every restaurant/supermarket. We also have no conscription, combine falling population with growing incomes, extremely slow modernization of military and weapons sys...
by Shanmukh
26 Nov 2021 07:56
Forum: Science, Economics & Technology Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 8411
Views: 2875246

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Looks like a good growth in the current year for India (both FY21-22, and calendar year 2022). Can some economic gurus say what the Indian nominal GDP will look like at the end of the current FY? https://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/indias-gdp-growth-to-rise-to-91-in-2022-goldman-sachs/article3...
by Shanmukh
26 Sep 2021 13:49
Forum: Strategy, Politics & International Relations Forum
Topic: Towards A New Representative World Body Replace UN
Replies: 18
Views: 2779

Re: Towards A New Representative World Body Replace UN

Since Ramana has posed a question as to what will replace the UN, let me begin with a counter-question. What would be the objectives of the new body that will replace the UN? Is there any reason to believe that any body that may replace the UN will be more capable than the UN of achieving these obje...
by Shanmukh
21 Jun 2021 09:33
Forum: Strategy, Politics & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 14901
Views: 2781760

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Shanmukh So, it is in its interest to render the debate irrelevant by its actions, an obvious action that comes to mind is the implementation of the CAA. And then it can legitimately ask the questions: 1) what is a Bengali identity that denies citizenship to Bengali refugees of religious persecutio...
by Shanmukh
21 Jun 2021 07:32
Forum: Strategy, Politics & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 14901
Views: 2781760

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Here is a full analysis of the BJP's election strategy, campaign, ticket distribution and so forth in the just concluded Bengal polls, from Saswati Sarkar, Atri Sanyal, Gangadhar, Dikgaj and myself. We also suggest a possible way forward. Take a look and let us know your feedback, if and when you fi...
by Shanmukh
03 May 2021 07:46
Forum: Strategy, Politics & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2021 Five State Elections
Replies: 1447
Views: 304708

Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Wouldn't a voter from WB, TN, KL etc bé thinking on the lines of : "Are BJP run states doing significantly better? On what parameters? Would those parameters matter to me? Given that I can anyway benefit from all central run schemes, why should I vote for BJP despite their lack of local connec...