Bharat Rakshak

vijaykarthik

The beheaded babies has been doing the rounds for a few decades now. Except for one journalist who has picked it, I dont think there is a lot of confidence in that view. I hear its more to dehumanise the enemy than anything else. But a lot of the videos are shocking and morally depraving.

vijaykarthik

Heads will roll. In Shabak / IDF. It's inexcusable to allow a large base to be overrun. Israel pop is ~9m. About 150K dual American citizens. ditto with other countries. So there will be a % of pop who are going to be dual citizens. Looking at the news on no of officers being targeted, it does look ...

vijaykarthik

Razing Gaza is feasible and might happen... but to control it needs boots on the ground... and it's not an easy decision. Plus the fact isnt lost on ppl. 1000's will be lost in the battle. But fight they will. IMHO, the Hamas want the IDF to come to Gaza to have an urban war / hand to hand combat an...

vijaykarthik

Didnt see all the past msgs... but I did speak to a few ex-IDF folks and heard some news and sharing bits of the info. Well executed plan. Looks like training has been ongoing for years and Hamas also had a mock up of Israel village and trained taking over village and also shot videos. Looks like Is...

vijaykarthik

I think the Orsk did take a hit. And Tochka to the best of my knowledge can score hits against static objects unlike anti-ship - not against moving targets. I wonder why Orsk was not moved. Surprising and even shocking if it did get hit (and I do believe it might have). Orsk was also widely celebrat...

vijaykarthik

Russian AF have been using mostly Su-25, Su-34s for CAS. There is no need to use air superiority platforms or newer multi-role ones (Su-30, 35s, etc.) since there are very little Ukrainian Air assets that can take off. BTW, it seems like RuAF have run out of PGMs or saving whatever stock it has for...

vijaykarthik

Missed logging in for about a week and see another 25 pages almost. A few points of observation to discuss : a. Russian AF is nowhere to be found. Just unsure why that is and if someone did post anything on it, will be interested to understand whats happening. Ukraine had about 6-15 planes and their...

vijaykarthik

I refused to believe Putin had not gamed this. He was warned about this before and knows what is coming. My take is he will not have anticipated the nuc option - central bank reserves being frozen and elites totally getting sanctioned. He will have expected SWIFT as an extreme measure but he has go...

vijaykarthik

In this case, Ukraine is the second engineering center (not outsourcing destination) other than where I am located. It is not an Indian company. The reason why a lot of tier-1's ( and independent vendors/fabless design houses ) have engineering center's or outsource to Ukraine is the high quality o...

vijaykarthik

Forecasting is a dicey business, but I would say that the countdown has begun on Putin's exit. Now that the sanctions are in place, they will not be lifted anytime soon. Notwithstanding any agreement reached between Russia and Ukraine, the sanctions will not be lifted unless all Russian forces with...

vijaykarthik

Hard hitting piece by Lt Gen Ata Hasnain (retd)

https://chanakyaforum.com/war-in-ukrain ... ns-galore/

vijaykarthik

Support for war in Ukraine prior to invasion was at 50% per a pre-war poll (Levada? cant recall). I suspect it will be at a much lower % now. With reserves effectively being frozen, this will be serious trouble for the invasion too. No populace is going to be happy when there is almost 100% chance o...

vijaykarthik

Turkish drones kaput onlee Russia Cripples Ukraine; Shoots-Down Its Most Sophisticated Bayraktar TB2 Drones — Reports https://eurasiantimes.com/zelensky-begs-for-peace-as-russia-cripples-ukraine/ Nice. I would love to see Turkey getting some serious backlash while Russia is invading. Will be anothe...

vijaykarthik

2-3 things which will be hastened: a. EU will stop trusting Russia. Germany under Herr Merkel was having a very look the other side view of Russia and she spoke excellent Russian too. I still wonder if this will have happened if she were in power and Trump was US Prez. Anyways, its happened and now ...

vijaykarthik

A point to note - no army in the history of warfare has advanced at this rate. Specifically the push north from Crimea and the push towards Kiev, from West of the Dnieper. The previous best was US in GW-2,in Iraq. That was when they had superb roads, unlimited oil and oil transport infra and almost...

vijaykarthik

A few more points from OSINT: a. looks like a fair few are contract soldiers. (https://www.thedailybeast.com/russia-used-beatings-and-tricks-to-forcibly-send-soldiers-to-ukraine-human-rights-group-says) Not sure how much truth but its something that Russia does use - mercenaries. I believe some were...

vijaykarthik

Importance of this for India: a. If Russia get bogged down (as it likely will), see if we have get some agreements done to take care of our interests. No explicit move into China's arms black black (going to be a tight ropewalk btw as India will be seen as a bad partner both by US and Russ now and l...

vijaykarthik

Deans wrote: Yes, he's active there. I miss Dr Shiv's gyan on BRF though.

What exactly happened a couple years back. Looks like I missed it as Im here after a hiatus of ~2-3 years. I see so many of the oldies missing. Is SS still there. I used to like the China analysis and reporting he did.

vijaykarthik

dfQhxku5o2A One of the most recommended Russian OSINT source (unfortunately no translation available). Says Russian advance is too fast for fuel and support vehicles to keep up. Broken down vehicles are simply abandoned and gutted. Ukrainian forces claim them as kills and post them on Social Media....

vijaykarthik

Zelenski is being made into a hero, ordinary Ukrainians are being shown as very brave and defending their home, anti war protests. All these are meant to prolong the war in Ukraine and west has pretty much succeeded in it so far. All Putin had to was recognize the two republics and get some guarant...

vijaykarthik

We have hardly seen any Ru air power strike videos. In Syria they were everywhere, strangely nothing in Ukraine. It does appear strange, as if Russia is holding back. Can't put my finger on it, but the whole operation seems contrived. Which goes back to war goals. They are the one and the same. Fra...

vijaykarthik

There can be one marginal adv in Russia faltering. China could be bissing in their pants. If this is the situation for Russia in piddly Ukraine, then imagine Cheen in Taiwan that too in an amphibious opn in a narrow channel with Taiwan defences and artillery barrage directed at them. Enough to make ...

vijaykarthik

with this amount of materiel and men, there is going to be a costly phase of maintenance of equipment (and adjusting for wear and tear too apart from losses in battlefield) for Russia.

vijaykarthik

^^ its already on. Curfew was from 10PM earlier. Its moved to 5PM when sun sets. Anyone who sets out on a stroll can be deemed a Russian and shot at.

Anything that needs to be done outside as Uk citizens is before 5PM in Kiev. Else, be prepared to get shot.

vijaykarthik

But mandating that 18-60 cant flee and asking them to defend is a sign of things going bad. Untrained civvies doing this is eq to cannon fodder. In the Indian students' evacuation flights, we see mostly girls. Are boy students being detained? Also quite despicable for Ukraine to threaten countries ...

vijaykarthik

And while on this topic, Uk will be getting excellent intel and OSINT / HUMINT / ELINT from NATO and 5 eyes. No doubt about it.

vijaykarthik

This invasion had no fait accompli and so far Russia has not been able to cut electricity disable Ukraine defences etc. The longer this goes on worse for the Russians, sure Ukraine is bigger than Iraq. Russia army is also too small compared to say WW2 Red army. I am afraid this will only lead to Pu...

vijaykarthik

Possibilities: where I mean Russia - I mean Russ troops. Kyiv - Russia has definitely entered Kiev. But I reckon it will be sp forces and recon troops. The main massing of troops will join in later. US might be right in assuming that it will fall in a couple days. We will need to see how it goes. Kh...

vijaykarthik

And oh, SWIFT - it goes both ways. Looks like a lot of EU capitals are hesitant to block Rus out of SWIFT as it means they cant get their money back either.

vijaykarthik

But mandating that 18-60 cant flee and asking them to defend is a sign of things going bad. Untrained civvies doing this is eq to cannon fodder.

vijaykarthik

https://twitter.com/ASBMilitary/status/1497490445521362946 throwing the towel? Neutral status and neutered status are a tad different. Russia is neutering right now and I dont think being neutral is going to cut it. They might look for access to Black Sea, land bridge to Crimea and other things tha...

vijaykarthik

If Im not wrong, the naval deal for Talwar class frigates could be stuck with the sanctions. More pertinent, it was dependent on an Ukrainian power plant. Ouch.Wonder how much the delay will be. Bad timing as IOR needs some strengthening.

vijaykarthik

AD will have been disabled in he first hour as I mentioned earlier. Uk will have no airforce or air superiority now. Thats the only way gnrl staff will have planned. MANPADS might still be there though. I will be v surprised if AD / AA weren't disabled and destroyed in first few mins of the strike....

vijaykarthik

chetak wrote:
vijaykarthik wrote:
Taiwan is different. It has a treaty with US. Ofcourse its in the strategic ambiguity terrain. But its definitely not Ukraine and there will be blow back there.
it is also non white

the amerikis will weasel out of it.

Point but if US chicken out, then its Pax Sinica. All hail Xi.

vijaykarthik

Interesting - not sure if anyone discussed this (I dont remember seeing it). Amphibious ops too. After how long as we seeing an amphibious invasion. Very sweet and I think Russia is actually trying out many options. Not sure how much is for posturing or practice but I think China will be interested ...

vijaykarthik

People on telegram can follow Intel Slava Z , updates by the minute !! Most of UK air defence is gone., remember Motor Sich at Zaporizhzhya, Ukraine?., that will be likely taken over today AD will have been disabled in he first hour as I mentioned earlier. Uk will have no airforce or air superiorit...

vijaykarthik

Taiwan is the one that should be shivering right now! The West led Ukraine up the garden path, and when push came to shove, hightailed out of there. Forget the puny sactions. Now think of Taiwan. Will US come to its aid? Will US even impose sanctions on China given its huge dependency on China? The...

vijaykarthik

I am not sure why some people are reading a great Russian victory after 3 days. This is not going to be decided in days, weeks or maybe even few years. Whether or not this was a success for Russia will be decided over many years. Kremlin advisor Andrey Kortunov did few interviews with media he told...

vijaykarthik

There was a difference last time though. Saakashvili took troops to overrun Tshkinvali and that was a recipe and a decent enough reason for Putin to allow Russian troops to enter and liberate. This time is a lot different. Unprovoked. Not really. There was a steady rise in ceasefire violations (as ...

vijaykarthik

This isnt going to end well. Are you suggesting that there would be a few nucs flying from both east and west? That is unlikely given the supine position the west has assumed. Nope, NATO or US has no role in this. So no nukes. But there is a feeling that I get that Uk is massing for an opportune ti...

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