Search found 38 matches

by Rahulsidhu
08 Nov 2018 16:20
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 2876
Views: 481433

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

But what's bothering me is why govt wants to break the nation's piggy bank now? Would like to make a general point about economics/fiat money systems that's often not understood since it is VERY counter-intuitive. If I were to frame it in physics like terms, At a household level (i.e for you and I)...
by Rahulsidhu
03 Nov 2018 12:15
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 2876
Views: 481433

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Rare Op-ed worth reading https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/rbi-centre-standoff-finance-ministry-urjit-patel-5432024/ I agree with most of it -- the RBI has been wrong to keep policy rates too high and the MPC is also a step backwards. I would also argue that formal inflation targets ...
by Rahulsidhu
03 Nov 2018 12:09
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 2876
Views: 481433

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Great news! https://www.livemint.com/Industry/tI3ySlv8mDQfEffEhwwVCL/Govt-working-on-road-map-to-promote-India-asautoexport-hub.html The Union government is planning to draw up a long-term road map to promote India as a major hub for exports of automobiles and spare parts with a focus on Africa and ...
by Rahulsidhu
24 Oct 2018 12:47
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 2876
Views: 481433

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Is the average working stiff back in desh actually bringing home more money, or is it simply that the govt. has become more efficient at deterring people from under-declaring and/or evading taxes? If people are actually bringing home more money and inflation is (relatively) low, are they recognizin...
by Rahulsidhu
24 Oct 2018 12:27
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 2876
Views: 481433

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Great stuff as usual from Neelkanth Mishra, on India's energy requirements: The fact that India may struggle to pay for the energy it needs to grow the economy at even 7 per cent a year is concerning, and challenges the widely held view that 8 per cent growth is just around the corner. Structural ch...
by Rahulsidhu
17 Oct 2018 21:21
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 2876
Views: 481433

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

TL;DR Indian industry needs to compete internationally and export a lot more. This is the only way out of this mess. Until this can happen, the rupee will slide and we will remain a poor country. Exactly, which is why more focus should be on exports. Actually, this is what is being done right now t...
by Rahulsidhu
17 Oct 2018 20:32
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 2876
Views: 481433

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Interesting discussion on the trade deficit -- and it's good to see both sides recognize that it is a major problem. To state something obvious, there are two essential ways to curb a trade deficit: raise exports and curb imports. Raising exports is the preferred method: it solves the problem by for...
by Rahulsidhu
03 Oct 2018 23:17
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 2876
Views: 481433

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Opinion | A $75 billion question for Indian policy makers https://www.livemint.com/Opinion/eFmtzlacNV2a75WZe1HDyH/Opinion--A-75-billion-question-for-Indian-policy-makers.html from the article The import tariffs are more an attempt to switch demand from the foreign market to the domestic market. Wha...
by Rahulsidhu
19 Jun 2018 22:47
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 2876
Views: 481433

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Rahul, competitive exporters look for currency stability while those that are uncompetitive would look for sops like currency devaluation. If currency devaluation was that important then Venezuela which is now a basket case would be the export King. Think why China with 1 dollar to 6-7 yuan is more...
by Rahulsidhu
19 Jun 2018 12:25
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015
Replies: 1225
Views: 134454

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Looks like the Americans haven't been very smart about the new tariffs: https://www.bunniestudios.com/blog/?p=5349 The new 25% tariffs announced by the USTR, set to go into effect on July 6th, are decidedly anti-Maker and ironically pro-offshoring. I’ve examined the tariff lists (List 1 and List 2),...
by Rahulsidhu
19 Jun 2018 00:57
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 2876
Views: 481433

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

US with the strong dollar does a export of 1 trillion dollars! The biggest exporter to India is.... Switerzland! Doesn't sound right. It is China, by a large margin. (data for 2017-18 from commerce ministry) Rank Country Exports Imports Total Trade Trade Balance 1 China 16.34 68.06 84.4 -51.72 2 Un...
by Rahulsidhu
19 Jun 2018 00:53
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 2876
Views: 481433

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

I guess I need to clarify a few points: 1) I did not imply FX is the only factor that matters in export competitiveness. But I did say that it does matter, and much more so than people seem to believe here. If you are skeptical of this, imagine yourself as the owner of an export business. Would FX m...
by Rahulsidhu
19 Jun 2018 00:38
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 2876
Views: 481433

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

If someone can find and post some historical data charting exports vs non-oil imports, that would be very useful. Yes there's an element of bias because some of the oil imports are crude imports that feed refined petroleum output. If you can separate domestic consumption oil imports from overall im...
by Rahulsidhu
18 Jun 2018 23:01
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 2876
Views: 481433

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

There is an interesting thing happened during early 2000's comes to mind. ... The current opportunity in my mind is the Aadhar Platform, this is a decent biometric based digital identity platform. Our government and private sector should harness it and can be sold worldwide in variety of ways. Grea...
by Rahulsidhu
18 Jun 2018 13:38
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 2876
Views: 481433

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

The western world (except Germany) *has* suffered from currency overvaluation -- they lost competitiveness in manufacturing and a lot of services, all of which moved to Asia, especially China. This has culminated in the election of Trump who promised to end this process and bring the jobs back. The ...
by Rahulsidhu
18 Jun 2018 13:10
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 2876
Views: 481433

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Great stuff as always from Neelkanth Mishra of Credit Suisse: https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/indias-dutch-disease-india-black-money-rupee-value-indian-economy-5221699/ “Are foreign capital inflows India’s ‘Dutch disease’?” An astute observer of the Indian economy asked me this que...
by Rahulsidhu
10 Jun 2018 20:02
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)
Replies: 2817
Views: 384764

Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

The two countries also signed an agreement under which China has agreed to import non-Basmati rice from India which is likely to bridge the ballooning trade deficit to a certain extent. .... Trade deficit with China stood at $ 36.73 billion during April-October this fiscal. India’s trade deficit wi...
by Rahulsidhu
02 May 2018 02:22
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 2876
Views: 481433

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Auto sales continue to do well India’s top car makers reported an 11.99% growth in sales in April, as sales recovered in semi-urban and rural markets https://www.livemint.com/Industry/rehIDIv4v1fhYGjZJGJHlK/Auto-sales-rise-12-in-April-on-recovery-in-rural-areas.html Some trends to note: 1) Growth in...
by Rahulsidhu
02 May 2018 02:07
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)
Replies: 2817
Views: 384764

Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Country Exports Imports Total$B Trade Balance 1 China 16.34 68.10 84.44 -52.70 2 United States 46.00 21.70 67.70 24.30 3 UAE 30.29 19.45 49.74 10.84 4 Saudi Arabia 6.39 20.32 26.72 -13.93 5 Switzerland 0.98 19.30 20.28 -18.32 Our imports from China exceed our TOTAL trade volume with our second-bigg...
by Rahulsidhu
12 Apr 2018 00:44
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 2876
Views: 481433

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Xiaomi is setting up its assembly units in India and the accompanying criticism is that this is a step towards making the country a nation of screwdrivers. To build a solid manufacturing sector in order to move up the value chain, the push must come from the government. But for now, it’s the screwd...
by Rahulsidhu
11 Apr 2018 16:22
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 2876
Views: 481433

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

If we tax the components coming from China will that help in localized production ? .. much like how the cell phone production went up ? For electronics industry, depends on what you mean by components. Some we already are, like PCBs etc, giving results. Lower level components need to be handled ov...
by Rahulsidhu
07 Apr 2018 18:48
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch
Replies: 2436
Views: 325647

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

History’s shackles American hardware supplies in the mid-1950s gave us a misplaced sense of military superiority, and our position on Kashmir hardened into rigid anti-India dogma. I recall my two-month attachment with a Punjab infantry battalion as a fresh civil servant in the late 1960s. When I me...
by Rahulsidhu
07 Apr 2018 18:34
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015
Replies: 739
Views: 105589

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

It wont be that easy as bond market are as much about trust as it is about money itself. It would be impossible to sell $1.2 trillion even if the chinese want to but lets assume they could do that than it would lead to significant change in US T bills interest rate and Stock Market will collapse , ...
by Rahulsidhu
05 Apr 2018 01:35
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015
Replies: 739
Views: 105589

Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Anyone comments on the 'trade war' between US and China? I think Trump is right in what he says: the war has already been on for some time, only the US is now beginning to retaliate. US exports to China are about $ 120bn, while Chinese exports to the US are $ 600bn or so. Obviously China cannot mat...
by Rahulsidhu
05 Apr 2018 01:19
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 2876
Views: 481433

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Thanks VijayK, This translates into average growth of 17% in direct taxes since 2001. Highest growth was in 2007 @ 39% UPA 1 - 26% UPA 2 - 13.8% UPA last year(2014)- 14.3% NDA2 - Year 1 - 8.9% Year 2 - 6.6% Year 3 - 12.8% Year 4 - 20% Average - 12.1% Seems like economy's been turned around or we ar...
by Rahulsidhu
26 Mar 2018 05:43
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 2876
Views: 481433

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Apropos of my post above, it is well worth reading what Keynes, as far back as 1933 had to say about free-trade and national self sufficiency. I was brought up, like most Englishmen, to respect free trade not only as an economic doctrine which a rational and instructed person could not doubt, but al...
by Rahulsidhu
26 Mar 2018 05:32
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 2876
Views: 481433

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Worth remembering. In reality, trade balances are the flip side of capital flows: countries that attract more inflows of foreign capital than their own outflows must, by the sheer arithmetic, run current account deficits (that is, including investment income). Conversely, countries that are exporte...
by Rahulsidhu
21 Mar 2018 22:10
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 2876
Views: 481433

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Nobel-winner Paul Krugman warns India story could end with mass unemployment Cheers http://www.skyscrapercity.com/images/smilies/beer.gif These kind of predictions are found dime a dozen everywhere. Exactly right. Krugman infamously predicted in the 90s that the internet will have very little impac...
by Rahulsidhu
16 Mar 2018 02:18
Forum: Military Issues & History Forum
Topic: MoD:Defence Procurement Policies Issues and Discussions
Replies: 178
Views: 24617

Re: MoD:Defence Procurement Policies Issues and Discussions

^^ No it is -85. This is the net amount of spend by the govt.
the GDP impact of +200 takes into account the multiplier (100*2)

I agree fiscal multiplier of 2 seems conservative. A higher value will make an even stronger case for domestic stuff.
by Rahulsidhu
16 Mar 2018 01:32
Forum: Military Issues & History Forum
Topic: MoD:Defence Procurement Policies Issues and Discussions
Replies: 178
Views: 24617

Re: MoD:Defence Procurement Policies Issues and Discussions

While reading some debates over importing weapons vs sourcing locally, I thought I'd do a rough quantitative economic analysis comparing the two (since I've never seen it anywhere): I am assuming * fiscal multiplier = 2.0, which IMO is quite reasonable for this kind of spending. The fiscal multiplie...
by Rahulsidhu
02 Mar 2018 00:14
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 2876
Views: 481433

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

The following is India's GDP (nominal, USD) as a fraction of world GDP, as per World Bank data, 2000-2016. World Bank data for 2017 is not available. IMF data (estimates for 2017) puts India at 3.24% of world GDP, which is squarely on the long-term trend line shown below. Per this chart, PM Modi an...
by Rahulsidhu
04 Feb 2018 21:38
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 2876
Views: 481433

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Neelkanth Mishra, who in my opinion is one of the best analysts of the Indian economy, makes some points about the budget and govt. spending: https://www.bloombergquint.com/union-budget-2018/2018/02/02/was-the-budget-trying-to-fix-indias-two-speed-economy * There seems to be a two-speed economy, whe...
by Rahulsidhu
02 Feb 2018 02:50
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 2876
Views: 481433

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Not a problem. I sometimes get frustrated by all the kvetching I see about Indian tax rates. Indian tax rates are entirely reasonable! The country needs a lot of social and physical infrastructure to be built and a lot of that is going to be NPV -ve, so one cannot expect the private sector to do it....
by Rahulsidhu
02 Feb 2018 02:05
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 2876
Views: 481433

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Trikaal wrote: Never said it was. LTCG affects corporate sector investment. It will have a negative effect on foreign investment. A quick comment on this, since this is something I've seen most people, including economists get wrong. Tax rates, even direct taxes, let alone capital gains, would only...
by Rahulsidhu
26 Jan 2018 03:02
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 2876
Views: 481433

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Apologies if this article has been posted before. IMO this is exactly the right policy prescription. https://swarajyamag.com/world/trumps-trade-war-on-china-and-lessons-for-india Quoting from the article: Actually, high economic theory has plenty of support for much derided industrial policy and jud...
by Rahulsidhu
07 Jan 2018 02:02
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Science fiction - Understanding and implications
Replies: 28
Views: 2018

Re: Science fiction - Understanding and implications

I just reread the Foundation series. The storyline actually has the Foundation develop a 'religion' based on technologies, which it then uses to psychologically dominate other worlds. And the reason for technological decline is given as follows religious/mystical mumbo jumbo => decline in 'scientif...
by Rahulsidhu
07 Jan 2018 01:36
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 2876
Views: 481433

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

When I see this, I get disappointed. Chinese Govt. instead of trusting Ethereum/Bitcoin slowly encouraged NEO blockchain which has been sponsored by Govt/industry and taking over the trusted blockchain space. Our fools are trying everything to kill golen goose w/o realizing the potential and future...
by Rahulsidhu
02 Jan 2018 01:56
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 2876
Views: 481433

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Rahul M wrote: ... One idea would be for the MoF to connect the reduction in corporate tax (say) to a proportionate increase in total employed : capital invested (in Cr) ratio. That is, for any excess in TECI ratio above a certain benchmark (to be set adjusted annually) the corporate tax would get ...

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