Search found 154 matches

by Rahulsidhu
31 Mar 2020 20:41
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4819
Views: 942883

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

At a terrible time like this, let me say something which will not make me popular, but needs to be said in the interest of speaking the truth: Many individuals and corporates are donating to the PM relief fund for virus prep/relief. This speaks very highly of the people and the companies. However, i...
by Rahulsidhu
19 Mar 2020 05:48
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4819
Views: 942883

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

I will quickly add why I disagree with the no-intervention thinking. The non-interventionists believe that shocks are bad but they make us (the economy) robust and thus good in the long term - by getting rid of the less efficient and re-allocating capital to the more efficient. So let the private se...
by Rahulsidhu
19 Mar 2020 05:33
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4819
Views: 942883

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

The (in-) action of MoF and RBI in the face of the greatest economic threat in a generation is going to go down as a shameful chapter in the history of Indian economic policy-making. Sounds hyperbolic, but it's true. I did not have my expectations set high - but hiking taxes in the face of mass shu...
by Rahulsidhu
19 Mar 2020 05:29
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4819
Views: 942883

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Rahul - get to twitter and start messaging Sanjiv Sanyal. I have very little hopes on the rest of the folks. But identify key folks from the decision making structure and reach out to them. I am not kidding - you may well have an effect. Thanks for the suggestion Karan, the same idea crossed my min...
by Rahulsidhu
17 Mar 2020 19:07
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 4405
Views: 324024

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

This news story claims that Seegene's testing kit has a sensitivity rate of 95%. Moreover, the test supposedly costs only $20 and is being mass produced. It is being certified in the US as well. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-04/south-korea-tests-hundreds-of-thousands-to-fight-virus...
by Rahulsidhu
17 Mar 2020 18:54
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4819
Views: 942883

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

The (in-) action of MoF and RBI in the face of the greatest economic threat in a generation is going to go down as a shameful chapter in the history of Indian economic policy-making. Sounds hyperbolic, but it's true. I did not have my expectations set high - but hiking taxes in the face of mass shut...
by Rahulsidhu
19 Feb 2020 16:29
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Telecom Folder
Replies: 1135
Views: 173858

Re: Indian Telecom Folder

Thakur_B wrote:
JTull wrote:
If the company becomes insolvent then DoT can stand in the queue like everyone else to gets its share. Not before.



Government dues take first priority. Rest everyone has to que up.


why?
by Rahulsidhu
18 Feb 2020 09:57
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4819
Views: 942883

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Industrial output is contracting. Can all of this be attributed to a screwed up GST and bank lending rules? I would say it is due to muted demand, which leads to lower production, leads to lower incomes, leads to lower demand. A downward spiral. However, I do think we are beginning to break out of ...
by Rahulsidhu
18 Feb 2020 09:56
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4819
Views: 942883

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

As far as I can tell, the govt. defaulting on payments is due to fiscal deficit targets (compounded by low tax collections). If true, this means: 1) The real economy has been sacrificed at the altar of textbook economics. Sad. 2) Payments should start flowing once the new FY starts (i.e. April onwar...
by Rahulsidhu
17 Feb 2020 10:32
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4819
Views: 942883

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

India’s central bank is reviewing the framework behind monetary policy decision-making as pressure builds on authorities to do more to revive a slowing economy. “Internally we are reviewing, we are analyzing how MPC framework has worked” since it’s been in operation, Reserve Bank of India Governor ...
by Rahulsidhu
15 Feb 2020 08:28
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Telecom Folder
Replies: 1135
Views: 173858

Re: Indian Telecom Folder

Here is a link to the order:
https://main.sci.gov.in/supremecourt/20 ... b-2020.pdf

The petitioner is GoI, which wants to grant relief to the TelCos, but the court is having none of it. It's a really bizarre situation.
by Rahulsidhu
04 Feb 2020 09:27
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4819
Views: 942883

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Despite the budget disappointment, things are lining up well for the Indian economy: * worst of credit crisis seems over * BS6 disruption over * nCov has crashed commodity prices. This will lead to lower CAD and more money in consumers' pockets. * Food inflation spike over, and commodities prices lo...
by Rahulsidhu
04 Feb 2020 06:38
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4819
Views: 942883

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

I think reactions to the budget probably reflect expectations different people had from it. If you think (like the policy-making team) that GDP growth at 5% going on to 6-6.5% next year is "good", then it makes sense. The budget does nothing major to alter this trend. OTOH if you REALLY b...
by Rahulsidhu
03 Feb 2020 18:47
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4819
Views: 942883

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

The manufacturing PMI data is also the highest recorded since Feb 2012 - the best in an 8 year period. Not too bad. The Nikkei Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by IHS Markit, jumped to 55.3 last month from 52.7 in December. It was the highest reading since February 2012 and above ...
by Rahulsidhu
03 Feb 2020 18:45
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4819
Views: 942883

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

I think reactions to the budget probably reflect expectations different people had from it. If you think (like the policy-making team) that GDP growth at 5% going on to 6-6.5% next year is "good", then it makes sense. The budget does nothing major to alter this trend. OTOH if you REALLY be...
by Rahulsidhu
02 Feb 2020 08:33
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4819
Views: 942883

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

in USA also you are taxed on all world wide income at US tax rates, and then given credit for any tax that you have paid in any other jurisdiction. It is quite fair and nothing wrong with India doing it; and not against NRIs (in fact it maybe against tax evaders who have been gaming the system by r...
by Rahulsidhu
02 Feb 2020 08:11
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4819
Views: 942883

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Please understand that taxes do not come for free. A fresh tax of x% of GDP at this time would slow the economy down by M.x where M is much higher than 1. Which would also hurt the collection on existing taxes thus not only hurting the economy but also defeating the purpose of the new tax. A plan w...
by Rahulsidhu
01 Feb 2020 09:12
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4819
Views: 942883

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

My thoughts: to makeup for the shortage of funds for MOD capital assets procurement the MOF in the new budges should introduce - 1 time tax (national safety tax) of 1% on goods / services / income ( excluding people in tax bracket of Rs. 500,000 and below) - Duration: for a period of 4 years (endin...
by Rahulsidhu
01 Feb 2020 09:08
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4819
Views: 942883

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Indian govt will have to plan for the global impact of this corona virus! Already, world's dependence on single nation like china is now exposed. So, after the trade war tensions, its good time to again help wean them away from China into India. Agree. There have been murmurs about a new Industrial...
by Rahulsidhu
01 Feb 2020 08:48
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4819
Views: 942883

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

An interview with PEA Sanjeev Sanyal: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zKWYM_jG078 It's a good watch and presumably gives some insight into the govt.'s economic framework. Some salient points: 1) He claims that demand-led growth is not sustainable. Need investment-led growth. (I wish there had been f...
by Rahulsidhu
11 Jan 2020 08:22
Forum: Military Issues & History Forum
Topic: Indian Space Program: News & Discussion - Sept 2016
Replies: 4217
Views: 948248

Re: Indian Space Program: News & Discussion - Sept 2016

Prasad wrote:Harping on fabless design capabilities is a convenient copout by the govt. They shy away from the $10bn needed to setup a world class fab. Everything else is just wishy washy stuff to sugar coat this fact.


If you don't mind me asking, what can/should the govt. do, specifically?
by Rahulsidhu
07 Jan 2020 12:20
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4819
Views: 942883

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

My 2 paise on the current state of the economy: Growth and pessimism have already bottomed out in the last quarter. Also idiosyncratic factors like BS VI rollout will be behind us in 2020. Add to that the +ve base effect from 2019, and favorable global environment (unless there is a war and oil pric...
by Rahulsidhu
07 Jan 2020 12:05
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4819
Views: 942883

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

https://www.livemint.com/budget/news/govt-plans-to-cut-spending-to-curb-fiscal-deficit-11578373542775.html India's government is likely to cut spending for the current fiscal year by as much as 2 trillion Indian rupees as it faces one of the biggest tax shortfalls in recent years, three government s...
by Rahulsidhu
23 Dec 2019 21:51
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4819
Views: 942883

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Rahul - simple question for you. If we leverage ourselves more (not ideal, if I read you correctly) or do some kind of quantitative easing program (print more sovereign debt, basically?), do you think we can manage an economic revival? To the question about leverage, yes, a re-leveraging is what is...
by Rahulsidhu
23 Dec 2019 21:36
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4819
Views: 942883

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

[ I haven’t tracked EMs in general this year but I’m not sure the Indian markets are simply a case of the rising tide lifting all boats . Is it ? Stock markets are never simple to reason about, but yes, ample USD liquidity does lift all boats (asset classes). Charting NSE50 vs $EEM should confirm it.
by Rahulsidhu
22 Dec 2019 09:51
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4819
Views: 942883

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

A pertinent data from my circle. Take it FWIW I and most people in my circle (mostly MSME small fry who are feeding off the sub contract ecosystems of big whales like L&T, Shapoorji Palonji, servicing (Real Estate and Infra sector) will tax invoice 30%-50% less this year than last FY and most o...
by Rahulsidhu
22 Dec 2019 09:47
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4819
Views: 942883

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Coming back to us, the problem can be separated into groups which I’ve ranked in subjective order of reliability: 1. numerical data on financial transactions These include forex reserves, export and import data (services and merchandise), FDI and other figures that can be quickly collected and summ...
by Rahulsidhu
19 Dec 2019 21:04
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4819
Views: 942883

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

^^ Please believe neither. It's a telling state of affairs when neither the former CEA nor the current one has any grip on India's economic reality.

There is no stock market conundrum. Markets are simply pricing in the recovery. Data will catch up later.
by Rahulsidhu
14 Dec 2019 10:59
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4819
Views: 942883

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

^^^ Note that the above does not mean any and all projects can be funded. There are conditions to be met: 1) It is possible to overbuild and come to a point where you are building 'roads-to-nowhere'. Japan ran into this problem. China is beginning to run into this too. India is far from this point. ...
by Rahulsidhu
14 Dec 2019 10:53
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4819
Views: 942883

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

... so called "bankable projects" - to finance. I heard this "bankable project" phrase before. What does it mean in practical terms? Does it refer to getting finance from a bank if one puts in 20% and bank gives a loan of 80% (sample percentages only). Could you please give a re...
by Rahulsidhu
09 Dec 2019 07:21
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4819
Views: 942883

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

People repeating tired old shibboleths about "needing tax money to finance infrastructure" don't understand the first thing about money and finance, I'm afraid. I'll give a brief example: say the govt wants to build a new road project. It decides to fund it by issuing govt bonds for 1000 c...
by Rahulsidhu
07 Dec 2019 15:20
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4819
Views: 942883

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

https://openthemagazine.com/cover-stories/stoking-recession-fears/ What is the broad message? (a) There is no gloom and doom in 5 per cent. (b) In 2020-2021, growth will increase to around 6 per cent, but not significantly beyond that. (c) The clean-up will lead to a more efficient and more formal ...
by Rahulsidhu
07 Dec 2019 14:28
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4819
Views: 942883

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

The RBI MPC has been very poor at reading the current economic sentiment, IMHO. Voting 6-0 to keep rates where they are because of unseasonal heavy rainfall causing a temporary spike in food inflation while they drop their GDP growth projects to sub 6% is a case of focusing on the paise and not the...
by Rahulsidhu
07 Dec 2019 14:23
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4819
Views: 942883

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

At least they left it unchanged. The GST council seems to be living in their own world and looks set to commit a monumental blunder. GST rates set to increase as council eyes major revamp Almost two and a half years since its launch, the GST council is expected to discuss major restructuring to rai...
by Rahulsidhu
04 Dec 2019 08:35
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4819
Views: 942883

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/economy/sanjeev-sanyal-plain-speak-govt-not-honouring-contracts-biggest-hurdle-for-ease-of-doing-business-4676411.html Biggest constraint to doing business in the country is poor contract enforcement, and the blame for the same rests mostly with the govern...
by Rahulsidhu
12 Nov 2019 14:19
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4819
Views: 942883

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

For those dismayed by the recent spate of bad economic figures: These data only confirm what we already knew - there has been a sharp slowdown in growth this year. In fact, numbers for the September ending quarter are likely to be quite bad and will make headlines again. But as far as I can see, the...
by Rahulsidhu
03 Nov 2019 23:10
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4819
Views: 942883

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

I won't be that pessimistic. Land was an IED planted by the NAC. We have to slowly get out of it. Labor is ongoing. Labor laws have been simplified. My guess is that PSU strength is first going to be reduced to prevent political unions from getting in and then further liberalized. It will take 5-10...
by Rahulsidhu
13 Oct 2019 09:04
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)
Replies: 3599
Views: 621632

Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Finally, China agrees to work on balance of trade - ToI China on Saturday agreed to discuss India's long-pending trade concerns, including on pharma and software, to reduce the massive trade deficit through a joint mechanism, while also taking on board New Delhi's quest for a balanced deal in the R...
by Rahulsidhu
28 Sep 2019 14:15
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4819
Views: 942883

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Rahulsidhu, you might like this too: FM Nirmala Sitharaman tells ministries to clear pending dues; says govt’s capex on track Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Friday said that the ministries with major infrastructure spend have been told to clear all non-litigated pending dues to MSMEs and se...
by Rahulsidhu
27 Sep 2019 17:02
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4819
Views: 942883

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Close of the first markets trading week post Corp tax cuts (Monday morning). Preliminary results: Pluses * Stocks up ~7% * Rupee marginally higher * Govt bonds marginally lower * Business and consumer confidence boosted * Global image burnished * Political capital gained Minuses * A bunch of "e...

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