Bharat Rakshak

Rahulsidhu

https://www.reuters.com/article/india-semiconductor-idUSKBN2BN12H India is offering more than $1 billion in cash to each semiconductor company that sets up manufacturing units in the country as it seeks to build on its smartphone assembly industry and strengthen its electronics supply chain, two of...

Rahulsidhu

GOI's disinterest in the fab semicon chain has been disheartening. They really need to get the right people - actual business folks involved in semicon ops to break the impasse. The usual babugiri file passing, promised tax cuts etc has not helped. There is still hope though, in recent days, have s...

Rahulsidhu

... It really feels that India is getting over a hump and this progress will culminate in a great physical infra maybe in 20 years from now. Critics will then be crying about "overbuilding", "roads to nowhere", "ghost cities" and so on but it will be a good place to be...

Rahulsidhu

There was a time when the Chinese boasted about the rate at which they built things. It's nice to see our counterpart to that now. We need a generation of fixed asset construction at a very rapid pace. The returns from that will be several generations of wealth accumulation and a complete break fro...

Rahulsidhu · Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017 Good discussion

Good discussion

Rahulsidhu · Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017 as compiled by the IMF

as compiled by the IMF

Rahulsidhu

... The amount spent on defence is at a historic low as a % of budget. We should at least consider some form of QE or whatever way to use our sovereign denominated debt to push for local orders. It will benefit industry and at least still modernize the military and build up our reserves. https://ti...

Rahulsidhu

sometimes wonder if there are enough eligible borrowers , then the amount of credit created could be endless..how long can this last in a world of finite resources but infinite money supply ? Just wanted to point out that your premise here is incorrect. You are right that the amount of credit (mone...

Rahulsidhu

Can't GoI just issue debt and have RBI and all the banks buy it ? What stops the Indian govt from playing the same game US and EU play by issuing endless amount of debt and keep the printing press 24x7 ? After all as long as the debt is in rupees, there should be no threat of default , correct ? Ye...

Rahulsidhu

https://justcapital.com/reports/the-covid-19-corporate-response-tracker-how-americas-largest-employers-are-treating-stakeholders-amid-the-coronavirus-crisis/ Good to see, but how is it relevant? I dont think it was an either or decision. NSji announced direct capital injection. The corporate giving...

Rahulsidhu

Addressing some pushback/questions on my last post: I don't think the quantum of the contributions to PM CARES in any way is enough to be an economic blip. It's true that the amount is relatively small, however (couple of k crores?) is not negligible either. Anyhow, my point was more about the DIREC...

Rahulsidhu

At a terrible time like this, let me say something which will not make me popular, but needs to be said in the interest of speaking the truth: Many individuals and corporates are donating to the PM relief fund for virus prep/relief. This speaks very highly of the people and the companies. However, i...

Rahulsidhu

I will quickly add why I disagree with the no-intervention thinking. The non-interventionists believe that shocks are bad but they make us (the economy) robust and thus good in the long term - by getting rid of the less efficient and re-allocating capital to the more efficient. So let the private se...

Rahulsidhu

The (in-) action of MoF and RBI in the face of the greatest economic threat in a generation is going to go down as a shameful chapter in the history of Indian economic policy-making. Sounds hyperbolic, but it's true. I did not have my expectations set high - but hiking taxes in the face of mass shu...

Rahulsidhu

Rahul - get to twitter and start messaging Sanjiv Sanyal. I have very little hopes on the rest of the folks. But identify key folks from the decision making structure and reach out to them. I am not kidding - you may well have an effect. Thanks for the suggestion Karan, the same idea crossed my min...

Rahulsidhu

This news story claims that Seegene's testing kit has a sensitivity rate of 95%. Moreover, the test supposedly costs only $20 and is being mass produced. It is being certified in the US as well. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-04/south-korea-tests-hundreds-of-thousands-to-fight-virus...

Rahulsidhu

The (in-) action of MoF and RBI in the face of the greatest economic threat in a generation is going to go down as a shameful chapter in the history of Indian economic policy-making. Sounds hyperbolic, but it's true. I did not have my expectations set high - but hiking taxes in the face of mass shut...

Rahulsidhu

Thakur_B wrote:
JTull wrote:
If the company becomes insolvent then DoT can stand in the queue like everyone else to gets its share. Not before.

Government dues take first priority. Rest everyone has to que up.

why?

Rahulsidhu

Industrial output is contracting. Can all of this be attributed to a screwed up GST and bank lending rules? I would say it is due to muted demand, which leads to lower production, leads to lower incomes, leads to lower demand. A downward spiral. However, I do think we are beginning to break out of ...

Rahulsidhu

As far as I can tell, the govt. defaulting on payments is due to fiscal deficit targets (compounded by low tax collections). If true, this means: 1) The real economy has been sacrificed at the altar of textbook economics. Sad. 2) Payments should start flowing once the new FY starts (i.e. April onwar...

Rahulsidhu

India’s central bank is reviewing the framework behind monetary policy decision-making as pressure builds on authorities to do more to revive a slowing economy. “Internally we are reviewing, we are analyzing how MPC framework has worked” since it’s been in operation, Reserve Bank of India Governor ...

Rahulsidhu

Here is a link to the order:
https://main.sci.gov.in/supremecourt/20 ... b-2020.pdf

The petitioner is GoI, which wants to grant relief to the TelCos, but the court is having none of it. It's a really bizarre situation.

Rahulsidhu

Despite the budget disappointment, things are lining up well for the Indian economy: * worst of credit crisis seems over * BS6 disruption over * nCov has crashed commodity prices. This will lead to lower CAD and more money in consumers' pockets. * Food inflation spike over, and commodities prices lo...

Rahulsidhu

I think reactions to the budget probably reflect expectations different people had from it. If you think (like the policy-making team) that GDP growth at 5% going on to 6-6.5% next year is "good", then it makes sense. The budget does nothing major to alter this trend. OTOH if you REALLY b...

Rahulsidhu

The manufacturing PMI data is also the highest recorded since Feb 2012 - the best in an 8 year period. Not too bad. The Nikkei Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by IHS Markit, jumped to 55.3 last month from 52.7 in December. It was the highest reading since February 2012 and above ...

Rahulsidhu

I think reactions to the budget probably reflect expectations different people had from it. If you think (like the policy-making team) that GDP growth at 5% going on to 6-6.5% next year is "good", then it makes sense. The budget does nothing major to alter this trend. OTOH if you REALLY be...

Rahulsidhu

in USA also you are taxed on all world wide income at US tax rates, and then given credit for any tax that you have paid in any other jurisdiction. It is quite fair and nothing wrong with India doing it; and not against NRIs (in fact it maybe against tax evaders who have been gaming the system by r...

Rahulsidhu

Please understand that taxes do not come for free. A fresh tax of x% of GDP at this time would slow the economy down by M.x where M is much higher than 1. Which would also hurt the collection on existing taxes thus not only hurting the economy but also defeating the purpose of the new tax. A plan w...

Rahulsidhu

My thoughts: to makeup for the shortage of funds for MOD capital assets procurement the MOF in the new budges should introduce - 1 time tax (national safety tax) of 1% on goods / services / income ( excluding people in tax bracket of Rs. 500,000 and below) - Duration: for a period of 4 years (endin...

Rahulsidhu

Indian govt will have to plan for the global impact of this corona virus! Already, world's dependence on single nation like china is now exposed. So, after the trade war tensions, its good time to again help wean them away from China into India. Agree. There have been murmurs about a new Industrial...

Rahulsidhu

An interview with PEA Sanjeev Sanyal: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zKWYM_jG078 It's a good watch and presumably gives some insight into the govt.'s economic framework. Some salient points: 1) He claims that demand-led growth is not sustainable. Need investment-led growth. (I wish there had been f...

Rahulsidhu

Prasad wrote:Harping on fabless design capabilities is a convenient copout by the govt. They shy away from the $10bn needed to setup a world class fab. Everything else is just wishy washy stuff to sugar coat this fact.

If you don't mind me asking, what can/should the govt. do, specifically?

Rahulsidhu

My 2 paise on the current state of the economy: Growth and pessimism have already bottomed out in the last quarter. Also idiosyncratic factors like BS VI rollout will be behind us in 2020. Add to that the +ve base effect from 2019, and favorable global environment (unless there is a war and oil pric...

Rahulsidhu

https://www.livemint.com/budget/news/govt-plans-to-cut-spending-to-curb-fiscal-deficit-11578373542775.html India's government is likely to cut spending for the current fiscal year by as much as 2 trillion Indian rupees as it faces one of the biggest tax shortfalls in recent years, three government s...

Rahulsidhu

Rahul - simple question for you. If we leverage ourselves more (not ideal, if I read you correctly) or do some kind of quantitative easing program (print more sovereign debt, basically?), do you think we can manage an economic revival? To the question about leverage, yes, a re-leveraging is what is...

Rahulsidhu

[ I haven’t tracked EMs in general this year but I’m not sure the Indian markets are simply a case of the rising tide lifting all boats . Is it ? Stock markets are never simple to reason about, but yes, ample USD liquidity does lift all boats (asset classes). Charting NSE50 vs $EEM should confirm it.

Rahulsidhu

A pertinent data from my circle. Take it FWIW I and most people in my circle (mostly MSME small fry who are feeding off the sub contract ecosystems of big whales like L&T, Shapoorji Palonji, servicing (Real Estate and Infra sector) will tax invoice 30%-50% less this year than last FY and most o...

Rahulsidhu

Coming back to us, the problem can be separated into groups which I’ve ranked in subjective order of reliability: 1. numerical data on financial transactions These include forex reserves, export and import data (services and merchandise), FDI and other figures that can be quickly collected and summ...

Rahulsidhu

^^ Please believe neither. It's a telling state of affairs when neither the former CEA nor the current one has any grip on India's economic reality.

There is no stock market conundrum. Markets are simply pricing in the recovery. Data will catch up later.

Rahulsidhu

^^^ Note that the above does not mean any and all projects can be funded. There are conditions to be met: 1) It is possible to overbuild and come to a point where you are building 'roads-to-nowhere'. Japan ran into this problem. China is beginning to run into this too. India is far from this point. ...

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