Bharat Rakshak

YashG

The domestic production of drones in Ukraine grew from 3,000 in 2022 to estimated 4,000,000 units in 2024, a study by @kse_ua @BRAVE1ua @mintsyfra shows. The investments increased from $5 million in 2023 to $25 million already invested this year and counting. https://x.com/NePrytuliatysa/status/184...

YashG

No doubt the sea guardians are good, but at USD 3.9 Billion for 31, I suspect there must Quid Pro Quo out there, I hope its for speeding F404 Deliveries For sometime, india had not imported anything and MOD babus were running out of their fat commissions MoD babus were desperate to import something...

YashG

finally after a long lull, Ministry of Deshdrohis finally got their new commissions with MQ-9s. Even a rag-tag militia force will take less than $10 million equipment to down all these 31 MQ-9s. They have little use at this price, but it pays for Deshdrohis in the MoD.

YashG

I must remind that Washington is currently ruled by lobbies who don't give a damn about US national interest, or global interests - only their own interests of their lobbies are what matter. If nuking the Russians earns the US more pain, those Washington lobbies won't care, because what happens to ...

YashG

I just wonder what would be consequences if russia nukes ukraine. Kyiv, lviv and 2/3 more cities will bring this long war to a swift end like WW2.
Ukraine's war waging potential will become zero. What will west do then?

YashG

Maybe someone knowledgeable can help: What is with small arms that Bharat is struggling, when we have Rockets, Nuclear Subs, Missiles. Is it metallurgy we are lacking, since any design can be copied and altered easily. There is nothing that we cant make if we can land on moon. Its just that Baboos ...

YashG

From LIVEFIST: Countershot Over India’s Latest Rifle Import : : Geopolitics and defence commentator Rohit Vats offers a counterpoint on the debate. This was published first on his social media handle, and being used here with permission: : : : His argument is if you made mistake once, make it again...

YashG

Kursk invasion has now been controlled, with Russia retaking some small villages like Borki. But Ukraine right now squats over a large russian territory. What looks realistic is that 1. Russian troop strength is not as high as has been speculated on this forum -including by me. I guessed Ukraine tro...

YashG

By no means can anyone writeoff the tactical gains Ukraoine has made in Kursk...It gave them a lot for very little. it was absolutely amazing work and shows that russians are still running a suboptimal show as compared to Ukraine. For sure Ukraine has west's ISR and intelligence assets at disposal b...

YashG

While it maybe correct that Ukraine has sent its best troops to Kursk for PR or whatever but Russian lines are not stabilising after a week of offensive - Unlike Ukraine lines. Inspite of my own understanding that Ukn lines would crumble but they continue to fall slowly while in Kursk Russian lines ...

YashG

Actually 'ToT' only helps babus protect the budget in the purchase. Now its swadeshi, so dont question anything now. Once the budget is protected - their commissions are also safeguarded.

YashG

^^^ Indian armed forces will buy 30 drones for 3 billion dollars so MoD babus get their money. And china will produce 300K small drones in same money and then more. Unless the MoD babus get their flesh, they will not let any mass production and orders for drone manufacturing take off. MoD babus shou...

YashG

^^^ It is MoD's baboos fault that we did not make good enough progress on Kaveri, to be either be in some place to use that engine or be in a place whr GE thinks if they dont supply - India will eventually move elsewhere. You ask why Babus cz they dont change every 5 years - they bring policy consis...

YashG

Importing F35 will mean India will never be able to use them. Everytime India will not agree to US geopolitically, US will hold up spareparts of something else. Other then making them in India, there is no other option.

YashG

At some point of time India will realise that Kaveri is the way to go if we want to build our own aircrafts at scale. The only reason Kaveri is hobbled is due to corruption in MoD. We can make nuclear submarine because that we cant import, we can make cryo engine because that we cant import. Whateve...

YashG

Drone on drone will be common soon enough… We will also probably have small range (upto 500m) but very fast interceptor drones with carbon fibre of silk nets to entangle incoming drones. I would imagine a small drone with capability of flying for just a few minutes but at very high speeds and tiny ...

YashG

Interesting fundraising activity by Ukraine … keychains made out of destroyed Russian equipment (T-72, T80U, T-90M, Ka-52, Su-34, Su-25, TOS-1A, MSTA-S, BM-27, BMD-3, TOR-M2DT, TIGR-M, etc) https://www.createdinukraine.com/en-au/collections/made-in-russia-recycled-in-urkaine Some image samples http...

YashG

With now possibly 45K losses per month and maybe being able to recruit not more than 10K/Month, Ukn is likely is losing 8-9% of total combat strength / month. So we would see russia notching upto 700K soldier in the theatre soon while ukn might decline to 300K in maybe 3 months. This has happened. ...

YashG

A very god source on Bakhmut casaulties: https://bbcrussian.substack.com/p/how-wagner-lost-17000-fighters-in-bakhmut It is interesting to know that number tallies with bigserge's analysis here: https://bigserge.substack.com/ The same article also talks abt ukn casaulties and perhaps how the initial ...

YashG

US always led russia in remote sensing; Even till atleast 5 years ago India was ahead of china in remote sensing resolution achieved.

If US is providing target information, Russia can only try to get its own info.

YashG

ukn might be quickly depleting its atacms stocks to hold the russian tide at all costs or use them before russia finds a way to handle atacms. Neither scenario looks good for Ukn. What will ultimately matter in this war will be soldier numbers. During the seige of stalingrad, during the most dire ph...

YashG

^^^ Western arms supply is a dichotomy. I believe it might never scale up enough. The vast amounts of funds being routed to Ukraine is a direct consequence of internal pressure & lobbying by defence contractors in US. These same contractors have for years worked on increasing the cost of armamen...

YashG

Austrian analysts are providing very useful and objective coverage. Just watch this: gk7D_TliAuE its hard to arguebiaes towards russia, and it corroborates that momentum has shifted to russia atlest in some part due to their superior jamming, FABs. He made one seminal point - the point of Ukn force...

YashG

Add another 150k in rear & support units, to get 450k. A lot of rear area functions are being done by NATO (medical care of serious injuries, heavy maintenance, intel) so Ukraine has a higher percentage of men in combat. Ukraine today has said that their support units and rear areas are overman...

YashG

... Problem with most of these devices (while not completely useless as a last resort defence) is that terminal drone velocity is very high and humans before they can detect and act, the drone has already hit. There has to be some automated visual detector and then automatic fire of some large area...

YashG

In a latest press interview, Ukraine's defence minister Umerov claimed russia has 300K troops ready in the rear to attack. I have no idea how true is this and if it is false, what Ukraine aims to achieve from saying this. The minister said Russia had about 500,000 troops in Ukraine and near its bord...

YashG

With the recent cleanup of russian military ranks, we could see improvement the effectiveness of russian war machine. Basically Putin is now so safe in his seat that he can afford to ruffle the ranks and have no fear of reprisal. The effectiveness could play out in several ways: 1. The procurement o...

YashG

^^^
Got it.

YashG

^^^
8-10 hour is exception not the norm. Plenty of russians have served to full expiration of their contracts and are rotated as well.

YashG

Russia can equip a peak of 600k men in combat units. They will probably reach that number in Jul (assuming 6 months to train or retain a new volunteer). Ukraine had 300,000 men in combat units around Jan 24, which is probably closer to 250,000 today. I see Russia's big offensive starting when they ...

YashG

https://x.com/RALee85/status/1793265709583093798

This is massive. While it decimates half of a building but the shockwave will concuss soldiers upto 2 blocks away in every direction. It will break the will of a forced mobilized soldier by merely witnessing one from a distance.

YashG

^^^ Also 510K is perhaps on the lower side. I cant remember but I have come across one analysis that put this figure to 600K not including the group N (likely in excess of 50K men). The same analysis estimated Ukn at 400K now. So russi ais attacking with 1.5 to 1 ratio while a conventional rule requ...

YashG

^^^ All the things you said are correct. But Ukn defence is not collapsing. Not yet. It is failing to defend but not collapsing. Perhaps answer is russian still have 1.5:1 edge in numbers. Once they reach a 2:1 edge, we could see faster collapse. Russians can achieve 2:1 or 3:1 - its a mathematical ...

YashG

If both Russia and Ukn lose 1K soldiers a day - Ukn will run out of soldiers first. That explains why russia is fighting, they can win. Why Ukn is fighting ? Also much before they run out - depletion of force will lead to a total collapse. I dont know when that may happen. rn Ukns are defending well...

YashG

https://x.com/NovichokRossiya/status/1792472227142664203 This twitter post is quoting the 79th Brigade of Ukn having lost 35 (KIA 15, WIA 20) soldiers on one front in one day. There are around a 100 brigades from ukn fighting on frontline. Since its an alarming message alluded to sending troops to ...

YashG

^^^ Russians have broken the defensive line and also caused manpower attrition, which means russians are making progress. But all of this still does not amount to collapse of Ukrainian lines. Ukns are able to stabilise somewhat secondary or tertiary lines. What will be the conditions for collapse ? ...

YashG

^^^ Taking a city is like having a fort in an area. You can sustain operations in the surroundings using this as a base. If you knit together several cities (just like forts) you can sustain operations in a much larger region. Placing a seige to a city (or fort) only breaks one node of defensive gri...

YashG

The constraint is not the number of bombs (more than 100 /day are available), but the number of aircraft that can carry the bombs. yes and also ISR. All targets are not suitable for fab lobbing. But fab destruction radius is 250 mts. Most likely russia is lobbing them at hardened position with 5-10...

YashG

Russia still does armored attacks and then loses armor to fpvs and artillery. It is so predictable.

YashG

Recent release from Zelensky claimed russia is throwing 3200 fabs / month on Ukraine. = 100 fabs a day. What is the avg casaulty that one Fab inflicts ? This will give us a good way to know number of soldiers ukraine is losing every month. Lets say one fab kills 3 or 5 soldiers. Could be more. I wo...

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