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by Suraj
22 May 2019 15:35
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6021
Views: 405053

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

The NDA allies dinner has brought out the dhoti shiverer in me thinking it is all because Amit Shah is expecting a relatively poor showing and needs to keep the current allies close and also signal to potential allies like Jagan and Patnaik that BJP can be good for them. NDA will lose onlee :(( :((...
by Suraj
21 May 2019 18:32
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6021
Views: 405053

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

BJP is also contesting more seats now. So this % business may not be a clear thing. Also MGB gang up also is there. There is no simple % or mathematical additions etc which will decide final numbers. It is more of a chemistry thing. BJP contested 430 seats in 2014 and 437 seats this time. I haven't...
by Suraj
21 May 2019 17:37
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6021
Views: 405053

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

After discussing turnout figures earlier , here’s some data on voteshare : In 2014, the BJP alone had 31.5% voteshare . NDA combined had around 36-38% as far as I recall . From this, the seatshares were 282 and 336 respectively. According to voteshare projections by exit polls, the 2019 figure for B...
by Suraj
21 May 2019 10:18
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6021
Views: 405053

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

At 67.11%, 2019 turnout highest ever for Lok Sabha polls Suraj saar will be interested in this. Overall turnout in 2014 was 66.4%, which was already a record. Quite extraordinary. Never before have we come close to the 2/3rds mark until 2014. We came very close last time and breached it this time. ...
by Suraj
19 May 2019 23:30
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6021
Views: 405053

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

A_Gupta wrote:Which pollster was most accurate in 2014?

Today's Chanakya and PP.
by Suraj
19 May 2019 21:41
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6021
Views: 405053

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

So both Axis and Today’s Chanakya give NDA 350+ . And multiple others over 300 . Time for a poll of exit polls now that everyone’s numbers are out .
by Suraj
19 May 2019 20:57
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6021
Views: 405053

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

*Ornob is grinning from ear to ear all day. He is looking forward to another 5 years of TRP. The fellows on NDTV seem to have long faces. Srinivasan Jain has the JBF look. Saggy and Needy still banking on the Australian polls. :mrgreen: I don’t think these guys understand the Aus polls . It seems t...
by Suraj
19 May 2019 20:53
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6021
Views: 405053

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Dilbu wrote:Lungi uthao zor se shiver karo aur bolo.
BJP will lose onlee :(( :(( :((

ADMINS! Ban this late Latif!

PS : welcome back . No one can save you from the barrage of chappals coming your way :)
by Suraj
19 May 2019 20:43
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6021
Views: 405053

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Australia just got all its opinion polls and exit polls wrong. So wait for May 23. And the Australian elections has 7 million total votes with the difference between winner and loser being just 30000 votes. Further, Australia voted back in the Conservatives. The bottom line is that they had a close...
by Suraj
17 May 2019 21:34
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6021
Views: 405053

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Pragya Kaushika ‏ Verified account @pragyakaushika 10h10 hours ago More The BJP asked West Bengal voters an unusual but explosive question for the first time. Did you press the EVM button or did someone else press it for you, the exit poll asked. #Bengal @ECISVEEP @AmitShah @BJP4India 0 replies 25 r...
by Suraj
17 May 2019 21:31
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6021
Views: 405053

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Another article in Open Magazine, by Swapan Dasgupta:
Awakening Bharat Mata
by Suraj
17 May 2019 11:16
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6021
Views: 405053

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Sadhvi is playing her part in "change the narrative" process. A small but immensely important part. Narratives, that are held for ages, do not change just like that. It is a process. And one important step in that process is to have a storm trooper to raise the unpopular POV at the initia...
by Suraj
17 May 2019 01:48
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6021
Views: 405053

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Reading that Swarajya piece on Punjab of the 80s, I realize just how much we've changed as a country in the last 30 odd years. As someone born in 1990, I'm a post liberalization kid who has only seen the country progress. Marred by terror strikes and natural calamities and to a great extent, pussil...
by Suraj
17 May 2019 00:12
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6021
Views: 405053

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

He has no record at a false positive in a wave election, i.e. he has never asserted a wave election when there wasn't one. However he has one instance of a false negative, where in CG 2018 he didn't notice the wave against the incumbent, but then no one did, including the INC. which is why i am mor...
by Suraj
17 May 2019 00:05
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6021
Views: 405053

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Tut tuts and finger wagging from Pagalika, for whom excited reverence for a Gandhi spawn is the only acceptable kind: Sagarika Ghose Verified account @sagarikaghose 10h10 hours ago More Majority of young in Varanasi in 18-25 age are fanatical fans of @narendramodi . Ask a question and they’re ready ...
by Suraj
16 May 2019 23:37
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6021
Views: 405053

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

I know this is going to be an unpopular opinion here and I might get piled on, but here goes. I don't think Sadhvi Pragya is cut out to be a politician. Politics is a matter of perception and you do not always say out loud what you might believe in private (no matter if it is "right"), if...
by Suraj
16 May 2019 22:49
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6021
Views: 405053

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Anyway, I think this is entirely another topic, but this is the election dhaaga, and we must stick to it. Any more news from WB? I think it's well on topic, but only if someone can find and post information that's actionable, in management speak. Cmon people - what's an ECI link to use to report vi...
by Suraj
16 May 2019 22:39
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6021
Views: 405053

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Firstpost - never a pro-NDA source at the best of times - has this to say about UP: Lok Sabha Elections 2019: In UP, force of Narendra Modi is breaching immovable caste fortress of gathbandhan BJP’s rivals are making claims of forming an alternative government hoping that the gathbandhan (alliance) ...
by Suraj
16 May 2019 22:25
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6021
Views: 405053

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Suraj a vote in Bengal is not just a vote for NaMo as in other places but a vote for change from Jihadidi. Hence her high decibel antics. vimal if you note the video you think BJP or EC has not? Yes I agree that the absolute shrillness of her behavior is a clear indicator of the risk she sees to he...
by Suraj
16 May 2019 22:15
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6021
Views: 405053

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Suraj, weren't the 2015 Bihar elections basically a 2 cornered fight since everybody had joined one of two alliances? It was basically NDA vs the original Mahathigbandhan. And TC didn't get it wrong by a little they bungled it royally. As for PP, looking at his unbelievable projections right now, I...
by Suraj
16 May 2019 22:04
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6021
Views: 405053

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

chetak wrote:both the PMO and the EC need to be alerted

Please post all EC related resources you know of so people can forward screen shots etc to them.
by Suraj
16 May 2019 22:04
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6021
Views: 405053

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

The threat of violence is a significant risk factor WB voters in the elections. When I saw the earlier upgraded estimates giving BJP 15+ or even 20+ seats in WB, I wasn't necessarily impressed, but I did think 'many people are going to die because of this result'. It is sad but the likely consequenc...
by Suraj
16 May 2019 21:46
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6021
Views: 405053

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

The India Today ‘exit poll data’ is, as they revealed, dummy data for the sake of demonstrating how their May 19-23 TV shows will be . A clever trick indeed . The nicest way to stop such clever tricks is to have a high profile lawsuit alleging attempt to sway voters before Sunday . That’ll teach th...
by Suraj
16 May 2019 20:47
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6021
Views: 405053

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

The India Today ‘exit poll data’ is, as they revealed, dummy data for the sake of demonstrating how their May 19-23 TV shows will be . A clever trick indeed . The nicest way to stop such clever tricks is to have a high profile lawsuit alleging attempt to sway voters before Sunday . That’ll teach the...
by Suraj
16 May 2019 11:35
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6021
Views: 405053

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

I cannot think of another state where there’s a four cornered fight where two regional parties and two national parties were all jockeying for seats, as Bihar 2015 was. Can you name which elections and which states these were ? TN has two strong regional parties and no national ones . Same for AP to...
by Suraj
16 May 2019 11:15
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6021
Views: 405053

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Today's Chanakya had got it right back then. But then they messed up Bihar really bad. This time too one of the polls might get it right like a broken clock being right twice a day. No, it's not a question of broken clocks. GE 2014 and Bihar 2015 were very different kinds of elections. The former w...
by Suraj
16 May 2019 09:20
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6021
Views: 405053

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Interesting data posted by Rishi Bagree (I don’t have corroborative references):

Bengal GDP as percentage of India GDP
1950: 25%
1977: 13%
2019: 3%
by Suraj
16 May 2019 00:46
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6021
Views: 405053

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Edited. Note that intention was not to piss upon own country. It is a criticism on an institution who can improve its own efficiency. I still think that the current efficiency does not bode well to the status of India. I believe the delay is more on logistical efficiency than the size of country or...
by Suraj
15 May 2019 23:44
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6021
Views: 405053

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

This is absurd.. Its the JOB of the Electoral Commission to ensure that free and fair elections take place and electioneering is an integral part of elections. Ram Nath Kovind should go ahead and place WB under presidents rule now because the state police is filled with TMC cadres and is not listen...
by Suraj
15 May 2019 23:03
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6021
Views: 405053

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

^^^ Neville Maxwell is the infamous author of the book India's China War, which is often used by the Chinese to bolster their territorial claims on Aksai Chin. The book was praised by both Zhou-en-Lai and Kissinger though Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore called it revisionist pro-Chinese history. This inf...
by Suraj
15 May 2019 22:26
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6021
Views: 405053

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Singha, Kati et al, I saw an article on Twitter that Atlee expected Bengal to break away from Union of India and was surprised it didn't happen. The reasons could be Shyam Prasad Mukherjee and other nationalists seeking West Bengal to join Union of India. The expectations of India's unraveling cont...
by Suraj
15 May 2019 21:43
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6021
Views: 405053

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Watching AAJ Tak channel. Its showing TMC workers protesting using Vidyasagar's Tshirts. Clearly Momata had an agenda to make it "us vs them" and had all the necessary goodies ready for that. They broke that statue. She is stoking regionalism to its fullest. No, she’s banking on the wishf...
by Suraj
15 May 2019 21:02
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6021
Views: 405053

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

This story had been covered well. However, we seem to be missing many such reports that we should be collecting and keeping a list of. Especially from regional newspapers. I'm sure that in many towns where buffer zones have collapsed people may have even stopped writing such events. The one of the ...
by Suraj
15 May 2019 05:46
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6021
Views: 405053

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

That's not true. There are two current nominated members Richard Hay and George Baker.
by Suraj
15 May 2019 05:41
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6021
Views: 405053

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

I was reading up on the two reserved seats in the Lok Sabha for the Anglo Indian community. It is such an anachronism today. The community is probably under a million strong but has outsized representation. The reserved seats were due to have been phased out in the 1960s , but never were, being peri...
by Suraj
15 May 2019 02:31
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6021
Views: 405053

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Sorry, I think the quick IAF raid saved decades of violence and grief. You have me wrong. I'm not saying it's a bad thing. I'm saying that something good was done then, in comparison to a contemporary situation (Balakot) where a section of people run around like headless chickens asking for 'proof'...
by Suraj
15 May 2019 02:15
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6021
Views: 405053

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

I find very little on the Internet about that time even on this incident. Boss, as this thread has demonstrated, there are many past skeletons that have not been properly revealed . The kar sevak killing in 1990, the massacre of sadhus in the mid 1960s, the terrible stampede at the first post indep...
by Suraj
15 May 2019 01:09
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6021
Views: 405053

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

The chamchas/BIF cultivate that as it creates a perception of "fighting spirit" for the dedicated cadre when fortunes are down. During the winning days, this is part of the "ruthlessness" to destroy any opposition if living or legacy of opposition if dead. That used to be a grea...

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