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by somnath
05 Sep 2015 19:43
Forum: Military Issues & History Forum
Topic: Indian Army News & Discussions - 11 June 2014
Replies: 3479
Views: 393582

Re: Indian Army: News and Discussions 11 June 2014

You are right, its a coincidence. But it puts in sharp relief the lack of movement in the management of higher defence in India. Public memory is taken up by big "ticket" subjects - OROP, Rafale, Apache....
by somnath
05 Sep 2015 19:34
Forum: Trash Can Archive
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015
Replies: 4573
Views: 485734

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

{Deleted} The UPA performance on fiscal deficit was purely and solely because of the FRBM Act - an Act passed by the NDA govt in 2003 that imposed targets on fiscal deficit performance on the government. The UPA as well as you, in most of your posts, have been vocal in criticism of the FRBM Really!?...
by somnath
05 Sep 2015 18:54
Forum: Military Issues & History Forum
Topic: Indian Army News & Discussions - 11 June 2014
Replies: 3479
Views: 393582

Re: Indian Army: News and Discussions 11 June 2014

OROP details announced - standalone, with no attendant reforms on higher defence manpower management. Incremental spends of 10k crores.

China announces reduction of standing army to fund expansion of a more mobile, tech intensive force.

Contrast can't be starker.
by somnath
05 Sep 2015 17:28
Forum: Trash Can Archive
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015
Replies: 4573
Views: 485734

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Key takeaway re external handling of economy, remains the following: NDA stress on fiscal prudence combined with growth-oriented Investments vs UPA lack of prudence on fiscal deficit; Growth secondary in importance to redistribution in UPA regime This is the "I have a view dont bother me with ...
by somnath
05 Sep 2015 09:13
Forum: Trash Can Archive
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015
Replies: 4573
Views: 485734

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Much as we would like more capital expenditure from the govt, what's important is the total Investments being done in the economy. The multiplier impact of investments in, say a power plant doesn't change if it's from the govt or from the public sector or from the private sector. The fact is that th...
by somnath
04 Sep 2015 20:22
Forum: Trash Can Archive
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015
Replies: 4573
Views: 485734

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

I think there is more going onhere. If you look CAPEX+Subsidies was 8%-9% of GDP all the way to about 2005. Then in 2005 suddenly it becomes under 5% of GDP. Subsidies only rose just about 2%. So money must have been leaking somewhere else. Unless things like MREGA got classified as non-subsidy, et...
by somnath
04 Sep 2015 11:40
Forum: Trash Can Archive
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015
Replies: 4573
Views: 485734

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

it is true that crude hovered around 90-100 in much of UPA-2 ..The total fuel subsidy given ranged from 40,000 crore to 85,000 crore...(mean being about 60k)... ------------- The budget fuel subsidy for fy 15-16 is 30k crore...saving from subsidy due to reduced fuel cost is 30k crore or 5 billion U...
by somnath
04 Sep 2015 08:47
Forum: Trash Can Archive
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015
Replies: 4573
Views: 485734

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

This government is merely being fiscally prudent... It is not anally fixated on fiscal deficit ... there was a dictator in Romania called Ceausescu , who became obsessed with fiscal deficit ... so much that he exported most of the countries agricultural and industrial production to repay its debt a...
by somnath
03 Sep 2015 22:14
Forum: Trash Can Archive
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015
Replies: 4573
Views: 485734

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

^^^ Just FYI, I wouldn't use 19th century and earlier economic figures to prove anything about the 21st century. Great Britain had its system of legalized pillage (per American William Jennings Bryan, 1906 - no Indian nationalist picked up on that because the British censor promptly banned Bryan's ...
by somnath
03 Sep 2015 19:32
Forum: Trash Can Archive
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015
Replies: 4573
Views: 485734

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

but also shows that India did not follow the global trend in increase of debt. I've asked on another forum whether that indicates an underperforming economy, but haven't gotten an answer. There is no one answer to that. Debt - is it public debt, corporate debt, or household debt? Generally, a very ...
by somnath
03 Sep 2015 11:08
Forum: Trash Can Archive
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015
Replies: 4573
Views: 485734

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Currently that doesn't happen. The govt for e.g. bundle's the rates and pushes the avg cost out and sees to net out avg prices. Consumers cannot choose to buy from whoever they want subject to a SLA! The reason is, as I said earlier, the X-subsidy helps the Discom partially pay for free/cheap power...
by somnath
03 Sep 2015 10:30
Forum: Trash Can Archive
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015
Replies: 4573
Views: 485734

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

What is debt , but the NPV of future cash flows of interest accounting for time value of money with the appropriate discount rate onree, I ask you. That is as much a Effluent variable as GDP itself. Debt is not like capital stock. (Corporate) debt is capital stock, for most parts. It is raised to f...
by somnath
03 Sep 2015 09:52
Forum: Trash Can Archive
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015
Replies: 4573
Views: 485734

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

In any case, thanks in part to the Jayanti tax and th throttling of core sector industries (coal, other mining primarily), quite a bit of corporate debt (now weighing down PSB balance sheets) doesn't seem to be in a position yet to generate cash flows enough to service the debt. Hence in part, the ...
by somnath
03 Sep 2015 08:17
Forum: Trash Can Archive
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015
Replies: 4573
Views: 485734

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

McKinsey & Co on debt (I thought I had posted this before, maybe not): http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/economic_studies/debt_and_not_much_deleveraging Per their report (linked on the page provided above) India has had net ZERO change in the debt to GDP ratio during 2007-14. India's Debt-to-GDP...
by somnath
02 Sep 2015 15:29
Forum: Trash Can Archive
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015
Replies: 4573
Views: 485734

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

At one level you can't complain with that statement. But I did a quick search and I came across two very interesting charts. Jim Rogers is more talk than actual investment. He is taken more serioulsy in the lecture circuit than in the investment circuits. Debt-to-GDP for India has become progressiv...
by somnath
02 Sep 2015 12:09
Forum: Trash Can Archive
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015
Replies: 4573
Views: 485734

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

^^^There were 3 main factors: One, high MSPs - many analysts believe that this was the single most important factor - especially given the high weightage of food/assicated articles in the CPI index. Two, high global commodity prices. Whether not passing through the impact caused more inflation (thro...
by somnath
02 Sep 2015 08:34
Forum: Trash Can Archive
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015
Replies: 4573
Views: 485734

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

amit wrote:^^^^^
That's because a whole series of circular arguments are being regurgitated page after page. Sigh. I expected better.

Apologies, for my contribution to that! :wink: Data analysis is an interesting, intricate conversation - but can get irrelevant and boring for those not interested. :wink:
by somnath
01 Sep 2015 15:05
Forum: Trash Can Archive
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015
Replies: 4573
Views: 485734

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Here is an optimistic view on the quarterly GDP data. http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/is-growth-accelerating-or-slowing-115090100031_1.html SAjid Chinoy is a serious economist, not a random journo masquerading as economist - so he should be taken seriously. Given these issues...
by somnath
01 Sep 2015 13:47
Forum: Trash Can Archive
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015
Replies: 4573
Views: 485734

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Funny the RBI Guv does not seem to share your views on what he is thinking. I am not saying anything else. What Rajan is referring to is India's relative immunity today to external shocks, compared to what happened during Q4 2013. With crashing oil and other intermediates prices and better capital ...
by somnath
01 Sep 2015 12:05
Forum: Trash Can Archive
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015
Replies: 4573
Views: 485734

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

The narrative that's being parroted is that the government is putting pressure on the RBI Guv to reduce rates because the economic growth rate numbers are an "accounting fudge" and the Guv is heroically resisting this effort. Incorrect. First no one's said that GDP numbers are a "fud...
by somnath
01 Sep 2015 11:24
Forum: Trash Can Archive
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015
Replies: 4573
Views: 485734

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Not government bonds. The debt overhang of the private and retail sector, infra companies in particular. Volatile exchange rates mean their ECB offtake is low. A lower rate is good politics and economics for the government, in the near total absense of any inflationary concerns. The corporate stres...
by somnath
01 Sep 2015 09:21
Forum: Trash Can Archive
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015
Replies: 4573
Views: 485734

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

The previous government's disastrous regressive policies like MNREGA et al. which left us broke were vociferously defended back then. The BJP supported NREGA when it was passed in Parliament. And the current govt has maintained (in fact increased) allocations to NREGA, and in fact has been at pains...
by somnath
01 Sep 2015 09:16
Forum: Trash Can Archive
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015
Replies: 4573
Views: 485734

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

As most of us who have seen both of your avatars can attest - you were a 'bhakt' of the earlier government in your previous avatar, now transformed into a 'professional sceptic' of the current one. It would be facile to pretend that the change of government in between had nothing to do with this ma...
by somnath
01 Sep 2015 09:00
Forum: Trash Can Archive
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015
Replies: 4573
Views: 485734

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

The 2013 land bill is the law governing the operative part of Article 31, that governs eminent domain, an exclusive preserve of the center. IOW: It becomes virtually impossible to acquire land under the law for public use to be delivered by private bodies. You are largely correct. But this is India...
by somnath
31 Aug 2015 21:14
Forum: Trash Can Archive
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015
Replies: 4573
Views: 485734

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

I think we've firmly established that you're the one man negative nellie brigade while I'm the 'bhakt' Remember, that characterization will stick to you regardless of what you think of the fairness of it. Not at all, its completely fair - by choice and profession, I am (like most professionals in t...
by somnath
31 Aug 2015 19:54
Forum: Trash Can Archive
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015
Replies: 4573
Views: 485734

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Isn't GDP growth reported YoY, i.e. compare current quarter to the same quarter in the previous year, so as to account for seasonal changes? Why are all the reports stressing QoQ growth rate declined with no mention of the YoY comparison? While I am not a great fan of the mass media, they arent rep...
by somnath
31 Aug 2015 19:43
Forum: Trash Can Archive
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015
Replies: 4573
Views: 485734

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

GDP data is reported on a y-o-y basis. Q1 GDP typically comes in lower than prior fiscal Q4 data. It's higher than the 6.7% in Q1 last fiscal year, which is a fairly high base. 7% on top of 6.7% in the middle of a parliamentary logjam and a drought situation in early summer is quite a strong perfor...
by somnath
31 Aug 2015 18:13
Forum: Trash Can Archive
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015
Replies: 4573
Views: 485734

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Q1 GDP growth numbers came in at 7%, sharply lower than previous quarter at 7.5%.

This is of course the new series data, in TC Anant's words, 7 could be 5!

Instead of pleading for rate cuts, which will come anyways, the govt needs to get down to real reforms.
by somnath
31 Aug 2015 16:08
Forum: Trash Can Archive
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015
Replies: 4573
Views: 485734

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

These are essential building blocks of smart cities and a lot of planning and investment need to go into these before a smart city becomes feasible. Where do we see this happening in India? The first "smart" building block for any urban agglomeration, including the large ones like Mumbai,...
by somnath
31 Aug 2015 13:25
Forum: Military Issues & History Forum
Topic: Indian Army News & Discussions - 11 June 2014
Replies: 3479
Views: 393582

Re: Indian Army: News and Discussions 11 June 2014

Perhaps a Defence Cess as part of the Income Tax might help to some extent ? Education Cess @ 3% of the Total IT + Surcharge amount is expected to net close to 24k thousand crores for 2015-16 IT revenues expected in FY 2015-16 is 3.24 lac crores, 3% surcharge will yield ~9k crores. You can give a n...
by somnath
31 Aug 2015 13:15
Forum: Trash Can Archive
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015
Replies: 4573
Views: 485734

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Interesting article by Mihir Sharma on how India can gain from China's collapse. http://www.business-standard.com/article/opinion/mihir-s-sharma-profiting-from-china-s-stumble-115083000794_1.html Interesting points. On infra First, the question about physical port infrastructure. Again, given curren...
by somnath
31 Aug 2015 11:51
Forum: Military Issues & History Forum
Topic: Indian Army News & Discussions - 11 June 2014
Replies: 3479
Views: 393582

Re: Indian Army: News and Discussions 11 June 2014

Joining armed forces is a passion and not seen as a career hence normal risk reward does not apply like sports in India. I dont quite agree. Armed forces are a career, as much as anything else. We need to make it attractive to attract the right kind of talent. Question is whether OROP is the way to...
by somnath
31 Aug 2015 11:24
Forum: Trash Can Archive
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015
Replies: 4573
Views: 485734

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

For example if I sell you a meal for Rs100 out of which Rs15 is paid by me as taxes then at factor prices my book earnings would be Rs 75 but at market price it would Rs100. Now supposed my cost for the meal was Rs50 which I outsourced to a single vendor. I pay him Rs 50 out of which he pays Rs 5 a...
by somnath
31 Aug 2015 11:09
Forum: Military Issues & History Forum
Topic: Indian Army News & Discussions - 11 June 2014
Replies: 3479
Views: 393582

Re: Indian Army: News and Discussions 11 June 2014

SIMPLE If the Govt has accepted that the Armed Forces have got be "Fighting Fit" and not historical monuments then so be it, else LUMP it The Govt needs to answer WHY has 50% of retirees NOT been inducted into PMS, IPS, State Police etc I call this a "Self Created Dilemma" This ...
by somnath
31 Aug 2015 10:44
Forum: Trash Can Archive
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015
Replies: 4573
Views: 485734

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

What's more, Modi's administration also cultivates his best state level leaders for progression to the national level . For example, Parrikar has already been picked up from Goa. SSC and V Raje have both been supported through political crises, and are tasked with running laboratories for policies ...
by somnath
31 Aug 2015 09:38
Forum: Trash Can Archive
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015
Replies: 4573
Views: 485734

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

how do the chinese big city model work? are their mayors reporting to the state CM or a separate post reporting to the central govt directly? i know some of the successful mayors have gone on to PM/president posts. Not just china, in a number of countries mayors have gone on to have larger profiles...
by somnath
31 Aug 2015 08:44
Forum: Trash Can Archive
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015
Replies: 4573
Views: 485734

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Another move, where power is centralized and not devolved, IMO a fundamentally flawed structure for India. Before Cities Can Become Smart, They Must First Be Empowered BY MUKTA NAIK The real need of empowering elected city governments—and by extension empowering citizens—for long-term urban develop...
by somnath
31 Aug 2015 08:30
Forum: Trash Can Archive
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015
Replies: 4573
Views: 485734

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Question - if PM Modi can do one out of two - land acquisition or GST - which one should he do? IMO, it may be best to do GST, which makes India truly into one market. The States can come up with their own land acquisition policies. LAB is dead - the PM announced is officially yesterday. GST, in it...
by somnath
30 Aug 2015 19:25
Forum: Trash Can Archive
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015
Replies: 4573
Views: 485734

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Any reason why Rupee is under pressure and above 65 now the China thing has subsided http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDINR:CUR 1. Global markets are spooked, in risk off mode, impacts EM flows. Large outflows this month from FIis. 2. U.S. fed hike - still even chances of a rate hike in sep, notwith...
by somnath
30 Aug 2015 11:54
Forum: Trash Can Archive
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015
Replies: 4573
Views: 485734

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

To be honest I don't know the answer to this conundrum. All countries have gone through this robber baron phase including crony capitalism. What would say is countries that control their consumption and divert it to capital accumulation activities do a much better job of growing long term and becom...

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