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by Uttam
27 Mar 2020 01:28
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 3989
Views: 291279

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

This is from Spain


Rapid tests for coronaviruses purchased in China do not work well

Microbiology laboratories report that the tests acquired by the Government have a sensitivity of 30% when they should exceed 80%
by Uttam
24 Mar 2020 19:55
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 3989
Views: 291279

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

The following news is from Czech Republic. It is in local language. I used Google translator. Coronavirus rapid tests from China have an error rate of up to 80 percent Rapid tests with coronavirus detection in the Moravian-Silesian Region will not help much. Their error rate is about 80 percent. The...
by Uttam
16 Mar 2020 23:48
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 3989
Views: 291279

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

High Temperature and High Humidity Reduce the Transmission of COVID-19 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767 Just a note regarding SSRN. Anybody can post an article on SSRN. Just because an article is posted on SSRN, it does not mean it is peer-reviewed or verified by any repu...
by Uttam
03 Mar 2020 20:59
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4805
Views: 938007

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Federal Reserve Cuts Interest Rates By Half Percentage Point Central bank lowers Fed-funds rate range to 1% to 1.25% Australia: The RBA lowered its benchmark cash rate by 25 basis points to a new record low of 0.50%, with central bank Governor Philip Lowe signaling further action...
by Uttam
06 Feb 2020 01:26
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4805
Views: 938007

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

PMI figures for a single month are too noisy to be useful indicators. Same for IIP, CPI etc. For quite some time, I'd posted 3- and 6-month averaged IIP data on this thread to offer greater insight. However I've not done so for PMI and I don't know of anyone else who has. The 3-month trend definite...
by Uttam
01 Feb 2020 01:16
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4805
Views: 938007

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

The entire economic survey is here: Economic Survey of India 2019-20 Thank you! I have started reading it. The first one I focused is Chapter 7: Golden Jubilee of Bank Nationalisation: Taking Stock https://www.indiabudget.gov.in/economicsurvey/doc/vol1chapter/echap07_vol1.pdf The report rightfully ...
by Uttam
31 Jan 2020 21:15
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4805
Views: 938007

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Here is another one from the Economic Survey. This absolutely needs to be addressed: According to the National Restaurants Association of India (NRAI), a total of 36 approvals are required to open a restaurant in Bengaluru, Delhi requires 26, and Mumbai 22. Moreover, Delhi and Kolkata also require a...
by Uttam
31 Jan 2020 21:11
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4805
Views: 938007

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Tonnes of info in the Economic Survey. Here is one: "The IBC proceedings take 340 days on an average compared to 4.3 years earlier and resulted in recovery of 42.5 per cent amount involved compared to 14.5 per cent under SARFAESI Act," it said. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/eco...
by Uttam
31 Jan 2020 03:18
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4805
Views: 938007

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Another positive for Indian Economy is the drop in Gold demand.

Image
by Uttam
16 Jan 2020 21:15
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4805
Views: 938007

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Uttam, GOI won't be able to do away with fuel/diesal taxes. It is one of their biggest revenue streams and until the GOI are able to collect income taxes from 80% of the population, the fuel/diesel is a indirect way (not perfect but still) of collecting the actual income tax from the 80% that don't...
by Uttam
16 Jan 2020 03:25
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4805
Views: 938007

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Suraj wrote:Uttam: Great long post . Agree with all the points.


Thank you for your kind words.
by Uttam
16 Jan 2020 00:49
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4805
Views: 938007

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

The transient state of economic formalization certainly played a big role in slowing down the economy. However, I wonder if we were a little too ambitious with inflation control. Very high real interest rates when banking sector was sitting on piles of worthless assets, probably had a bigger impact....
by Uttam
14 Dec 2019 04:30
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4805
Views: 938007

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Sir, the government spending itself creates some momentum in the economy. A downturn can be used for many things. One of them being to print money and spend on infrastructure. It is ok, as long as the investments result in long term growth. Printing money to spend on walfare or suport unfrofitable ...
by Uttam
13 Dec 2019 21:44
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4805
Views: 938007

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

What is there a slowdown in the Indian economy? Here is my attempt to understand why there is a slowdown in the Indian economy. The purpose is see what can and should be done and predict when will economy will turn around. 1) Legacy of hawkish monetary policy : The central bankers' urge to reduce i...
by Uttam
20 Oct 2019 18:43
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4805
Views: 938007

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

India’s forex reserves at new life-time high of $439.712 billion. There are two possible reasons for this: 1) there is a lot of USD inflow 2) there is a lot upward pressure on INR and RBI is buying USD to prevent INR from rising. Which one is it or it is a combination of the two, I’m not sure! Woul...
by Uttam
17 Oct 2019 19:16
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Turkey News, discussions, India Turkey Relations
Replies: 1060
Views: 138749

Re: Turkey News, discussions, India Turkey Relations

Heard an interview of Senior Advisor to Erdu on NPR - Morning Edition. The lady was actually condescending to Trump. Not that I am complaining, but the way this lady was describing Trump's letter tells me that Erdu thinks that Trump is on his way out. Here is it https://www.npr.org/2019/10/17/770848...
by Uttam
10 Oct 2019 20:06
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4805
Views: 938007

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

There is a fundamental misunderstanding of what currency is. It is simply a non interest bearing bond issued by the government. That is, it is an IOU signed by the government to whoever takes that currency. When the government increases the amount of currency but the amount of economic activity is u...
by Uttam
27 Sep 2019 23:53
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4805
Views: 938007

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

vimal wrote:Completely OT but what is the difference between Suraj and Sooraj on this forum are you the same person or different?


That is certainly OT. Anyway, the answer I am confident in giving is that they are different people.
by Uttam
16 Sep 2019 20:39
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4805
Views: 938007

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Here is an interview of CM Yogi. Even if 1/2 of what he said is correct than I see a clear path for UP to come out of its laggard status. I am skeptical about CM Yogi's claim of quadrupling UP's GDP in 6 years. However, his aggressive approach to invite businesses and keep them in UP is something I ...
by Uttam
29 Aug 2019 22:05
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: India's Power Sector
Replies: 1586
Views: 261182

Re: India's Power Sector

Bloom Energy seeks government support to push fuel-cell based power generation IMHO this is a bad idea. If they are financially viable why do they need govt. support. They are asking for GST concessions and Customs duty waiver. On the other hand, India has imposed customs on solar panel. India shou...
by Uttam
13 Aug 2019 20:09
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4805
Views: 938007

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

In my humble opinion, the short-term rates in India are still too high. The most recent CPI is 3.15% ( Source ) and the RBI's reverse repo rate is 5.15% ( https://www.rbi.org.in/ ). That works out to be a real short-term interest rate of 2%. I am expecting at least 1 more rate cut before the end of ...
by Uttam
08 Aug 2019 20:29
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4805
Views: 938007

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Regarding transmission of interest rate cuts I am not a macro-economist, so take my words with spool full of salt: The rate cut transmission is always smaller. RBI can cut only the short-term rates (Repo, which is almost and overnight rate), whereas most of the banks' assets, i.e. the loans they ex...
by Uttam
07 Aug 2019 22:29
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4805
Views: 938007

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

RBI Rate Cut The Reserve Bank of India made an unconventional 35 basis point cut in the repo rate and also took a slew of other decisions. Some more details in the monetary policy change: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its Statement on Developmental and Regulatory Policies issued on August 7, 2...
by Uttam
07 Aug 2019 22:23
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4805
Views: 938007

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

RBI Rate Cut
The Reserve Bank of India made an unconventional 35 basis point cut in the repo rate and also took a slew of other decisions.
by Uttam
07 Aug 2019 20:58
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Articles 370 and 35A Repealed, J&K and Ladakh to be Separate Union Territories
Replies: 632
Views: 72905

Re: Articles 370 and 35A Repealed, J&K and Ladakh to be Separate Union Territories

pankajs wrote:
mmasand wrote:US State Dept reacts to reports in the media.



https://twitter.com/State_SCA/status/11 ... 80800?s=20

Makes sense.


Didn't India say that US was "informed." Of course, they didn't "consult."
by Uttam
07 Aug 2019 00:37
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: RIP - Sushma Swaraj ji
Replies: 54
Views: 4336

Re: RIP - Sushma Swaraj ji

A very generous and able leader. One of the most articulate in the Indian politics. Sushma Swaraj ji ko meri haardhik shradhanjali.
by Uttam
06 Aug 2019 00:51
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Articles 370 and 35A Repealed, J&K and Ladakh to be Separate Union Territories
Replies: 632
Views: 72905

Re: Articles 370 and 35A Repealed, J&K and Ladakh to be Separate Union Territories

A quick question to constitutional expects if they are around. The RS vote was 125 v 61. That is 67.20% (=125/186) of the house. Can this be considered greater than 2/3 and therefore a constitutional amendment? Or does it need to be introduced as a constitutional amendment and then a 2/3 majority ma...
by Uttam
05 Jun 2019 22:39
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4805
Views: 938007

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Suraj wrote:Brent crude prices have fallen below $60 for the first time since start of 2019. A positive for the economy.


Yes, that is positive. However, it also indicates a general slowdown in the world economy, which is not a great news for India. Exports (goods+services)/GDP for India was about 19% in 2017.
by Uttam
30 May 2019 21:13
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch
Replies: 4192
Views: 742048

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

BSE Market Cap is approx 500 Billion dollars short of Indian GDP of approc 2.7 Trillion dollars. That is approx 80% of GDP. I hear Paki GDP is 280 Billion dollars and PSE as stated above is 48 Billion dollars market cap. That is approx 20% of Paki GDP. What is the strange story here. Is most of Pak...
by Uttam
13 May 2019 17:08
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 580813

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

This is my first contribution to this thread.

My uncle who is a founder/supporter of AAP in Delhi. He voted NOTA. This was an absolute surprise for us. He has been a militant supporter of AAP and Khujli. I know it is anecdotal but still a significant one.
by Uttam
03 May 2019 01:15
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: India's Power Sector
Replies: 1586
Views: 261182

Re: India's Power Sector

There is a lot of chatter in media about solar installation falling below target last year. Some of the lukewarm responses to tenders are blamed to lowered maximum tariff in latest tenders. Here is one example link I think some of it also to do with massive growth in growth in solar installations ov...
by Uttam
26 Apr 2019 19:45
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4805
Views: 938007

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Increase in UPI transactions from 178 million in March'18 to 800 million in March'19 is highly commendable. Achievements like these don't just need technology, they need sound LEADERSHIP. I hope the current leadership continues for 5 more years. UPI scores 87% transaction success rate this March A s...
by Uttam
13 Apr 2019 18:38
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4805
Views: 938007

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Data request: Where can I find data on the rate of increase in available workforce and rate of change in productivity in India?
by Uttam
04 Apr 2019 20:20
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4805
Views: 938007

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

From Shaktikanta to Shaktimaan: Guv just gave India 11 big shots in the arm * RBI will form a committee to assess the state of mortgage securitisation market in India. * Banks will be permitted to reckon an additional 2% of government securities within the mandatory statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) ...
by Uttam
22 Mar 2019 21:14
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4805
Views: 938007

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Modi govt exceeds disinvestment target for FY19 as receipts hit Rs 85,000 crore he government on Friday said that it has exceeded the divestment target for FY19 by Rs 5,000 crore as the receipts have touched projected Rs 85,000 crore. “As against a target of Rs 80,000 crore for disinvestment for th...
by Uttam
01 Mar 2019 19:41
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 4805
Views: 938007

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

I think the following new is misleading. My explanation below. Experts can chime in! GST collection drops to Rs 97,247 crore in February GST collections in February dropped to Rs 97,247 crore in February from Rs 1.02 lakh crore in the previous month, the Finance Ministry said Friday. Why misleading?...

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