Bharat Rakshak

Deans

Russia has around 510,000 troops in Ukraine and recruiting 20,000 - 30,000 more every month. Its not that Russia is adding 20-30000 men each month, though they are recruiting that many. Some of the new recruits replace casualties. (500/ month KIA and 1000 WIA) Some replace contract soldiers whose 3...

Deans

> Put another way, the more Modi closes the gap between his approval rating (which is well into the 70%+) and his vote share (which is "only" 45-50%), the more seats he will win. Very nicely stated. The corollary to this is what we should be concerned about. In every state assembly electi...

Deans

https://x.com/RShivshankar/status/1792915780805251393 Rahul Shivshankar @RShivshankar Rahul Gandhi, Mamata Banerjee and Arvind Kejriwal are predicting a “2004-like” rout of the Modi-led NDA. Is it possible? Well not if the I.N.D.I.A bloc can’t cross these 5 barriers. Barrier 1: BJP’s vote lakhpatis...

Deans

One very surprising revelation is that Russians don’t seem to have hardened aircraft shelters on their airbases! … many more photos There was a mass ATACAM raid on an airbase in Crimea. It resulted in the loss of a S-400 radar and launchers, (the 2nd one destroyed in a ATACAM/Storm shadow raid) and...

Deans

If both Russia and Ukn lose 1K soldiers a day - Ukn will run out of soldiers first. That explains why russia is fighting, they can win. Why Ukn is fighting ? Also much before they run out - depletion of force will lead to a total collapse. I dont know when that may happen. rn Ukns are defending wel...

Deans

One very surprising revelation is that Russians don’t seem to have hardened aircraft shelters on their airbases! … many more photos There was a mass ATACAM raid on an airbase in Crimea. It resulted in the loss of a S-400 radar and launchers, (the 2nd one destroyed in a ATACAM/Storm shadow raid) and...

Deans

Dr PP has called it for BJP/ NDA after phase 4.

His most likely scenario is 366 for the NDA (315+51). The range is 315 - 410

Deans

I think this is a very timely thread. Time will prove if BRF was ahead of the curve when it came to a China-Taiwan war. The US has wargamed this numerous times. Here is one link: https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2023/01/csis-wargame-chinas-invasion-of-taiwan-in-2026/ CSIS is the premier think ta...

Deans

^^^ Taking a city is like having a fort in an area. You can sustain operations in the surroundings using this as a base. If you knit together several cities (just like forts) you can sustain operations in a much larger region. That is what Ukraine has done. The North-South Donbass line (Siversk- Ba...

Deans

Btw, in a general vein, I don't understand the obsession to take cities/towns - Bakhmut or Avdeevka and now Kharkiv (other than the PR part). Fighting street by street, taking up buildings, steel plants etc is such a big waste of time. And worse is when the forces send tanks into cities. I thought ...

Deans

Btw, in a general vein, I don't understand the obsession to take cities/towns - Bakhmut or Avdeevka and now Kharkiv (other than the PR part). Fighting street by street, taking up buildings, steel plants etc is such a big waste of time. And worse is when the forces send tanks into cities. I thought ...

Deans

Dr Patil's summary of phase 3. Karnakata - Loss of 4 seats in phase 2. Mostly mismanagement by BJP and infighting. BJP looking at 17-20 of 28. Maharashtra - Still confused with the BJP led front having the edge. Gujarat - Clean sweep with an increase in vote share. WB - BJP gain of 1-2 seats (so far...

Deans

^ +72 And to all the dhoti shiverers, please watch the crowd showing up inspite of the heat to catch a glimpse of NaMo. Check out the massive crowd size in Karimnagar. And regarding low voting percentage, it seems that 10% of the Congress supporters were not enthused to go out and vote in Guj, Mah ...

Deans

Dr Praveen Patil's blog is open for subscription after a glitch. 5forty3.org. I am not pasting the reports here (the free summary is not useful), as he depends on paid subs. Just some highlights: TN - No of votes for BJP increased from 15 lac to 75+ lac since 2019. Can result in 1-2 seats. Karnataka...

Deans

Couple of predictions based on technical analysis and mathematical modelling. One guy in X is said to have accurately predicted in 2014 , the results of 2014, 2019 elections and also for 2024 which generally matches with opinion polls. Can anybody here give a short description of the basis of these...

Deans

What is the real story behind the allegations that opposing candidates were pressured to withdraw from Gandhinagar, reducing the opposition to Amit Shah? Amit Shah would have got over 50% of the vote, irrespective of the quality or number of the opposition in that seat. I doubt any opposition candi...

Deans

So to summarize: 1. Corruption is a big issue 2. Women exploitation/molestation on camera is an issue 3. Crass politicians are an issue TenaliRam'ji, if you were a voter in Treta Yuga, you will not vote for Lord Rama since Lord Rama asked for Maa Sita to go through AgniPariksha. But you will defini...

Deans

Recent release from Zelensky claimed russia is throwing 3200 fabs / month on Ukraine. = 100 fabs a day. What is the avg casaulty that one Fab inflicts ? This will give us a good way to know number of soldiers ukraine is losing every month. Lets say one fab kills 3 or 5 soldiers. Could be more. I wo...

Deans

Recent release from Zelensky claimed russia is throwing 3200 fabs / month on Ukraine. = 100 fabs a day. What is the avg casaulty that one Fab inflicts ? This will give us a good way to know number of soldiers ukraine is losing every month. Lets say one fab kills 3 or 5 soldiers. Could be more. I wo...

Deans

Pratyush, Abrams donated to Ukraine doesn’t have APS or anti-drone jammers. So let’s see what the Americans come up with in terms of tactics and countermeasures. Drones are not that easy to shoot down. If they were, Russia and Ukraine wouldn’t have lost so many armoured vehicles to kamikazi FPV. Ev...

Deans

^^^ One example of how much losses Russians are incurring for incremental gains. Ukrainian troops destroyed over 300 units of equipment near Novomykhailivka That village was flattened and eventually overrun by the Russians but it was achieved at a great cost (both equipment and personnel). Although...

Deans

What happened to Russian air superiority over Ukrainian skies??? What the hell happened to Russian Air Force? Ukraine had more anti aircraft systems in operation than the whole of Europe combined. This was backed up by AWAC's which were outside Ukrainian airspace and a dense satellite network. The ...

Deans

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mKc7YJ2YCY4 Iran's nuclear centrifuges came from Pakistan. Pakistan is the reason why Iran has a stockpile of fissile material. Clearly, there's a significant risk that Pakistan could sell nuclear weapons technology to Iran, just as it has done in the past. That coul...

Deans

My latest blogpost on the Gaza war, I argue that Israel has turned it around and called the bluff of Hezbollah and Iran. https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2024/04/gaza-war-part-4-israels-quiet-turnaround.html Deans ji , very good and factual analysis. While not military related, would you have any comme...

Deans

Has anyone tried subscribing to Dr Pravin Patil's substack ? I wanted to take a one month sub, but the site does not let you make payment.
His articles before the 2019 election were spot on - perhaps the only analyst who got it right.
Seems to be some glitch with his account.

Deans

My latest blogpost on the Gaza war, I argue that Israel has turned it around and called the bluff of Hezbollah and Iran.

https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2024/04/ga ... round.html

Deans

My latest blogpost on the Gaza War. I argue that Israel has turned it around, beating Hamas and calling the bluff of Hezbollah and Iran.

https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2024/04/ga ... round.html

Deans

Tu-22 shot down I call that BS. Most likely it was an engine failure and the Ukrainians being the shameless SOBs they are took credit for something that they did not do. It crashed outside the range of Ukrainian SAM's, 2 of the crew were debriefed. Cause it apparently engine failure, which can happ...

Deans

Deans ji, if naidu makes a healthy headway in getting a significant number of seats, he will revert to his default position of blackmailing the center, if he can, even if he has to break the alliance and join up with others like it happened in MAH. He is testing the waters in the 2024 LS elections ...

Deans

PIA’s most recent full-year annual report shows it generated revenues of PKR172 billion ($619 million) in carrying 4.2 million passengers in 2022. That is around a million lower than its pre-pandemic passenger high of 5.2 million in 2019. The report shows the airline was loss-making between 2017 an...

Deans

Here's my two cents on the AP scenario: BJP's vote share in last elections was less than 1% and it is highly unlikely to improve on that if it goes all alone, with the uninspiring local leaders it has. The central BJP leaders are viewed by most AP people as having cheated AP post bifurcation. So, e...

Deans

There is the matter of MTCR. US cannot transfer any missiles iver 300 mile range. If it does, then nothing stops Russia from exporting to NK or Iran. Thats a line the US wont cross now that VN is out. If Hypersonic Zircon missiles (with MTCR limits) are supplied to China and Iran, US Carrier battle...

Deans

After recent €50 billion in economic aid by EU, there are now plans for a 5-year €100 billion military aid package by NATO (EU only). Meanwhile, US military $60 billion aid package still stuck in US Congress politics. NATO EU stepping out of US shadow. Over the years, US has become an unreliable pa...

Deans

Russia has officially begun second round of draft. The first draft was “officially” 300,000. The new second draft is for 150,000. Plus, unaccounted are large numbers of prisoners, domestic mercenaries, and foreign mercenaries. This is misleading. Russia's regular Bi-Annual conscription has traditio...

Deans

Guardian claims it has proof of RAA involvement in 72 hoor ops in Bakistan. The names of the authors itself is enough to trust the investigation is for real :rotfl: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/04/indian-government-assassination-allegations-pakistan-intelligence-officials Just in time...

Deans

PS: the voter turnout in all the Hyd metro constituencies appears very low (45-53%) in the last three LS elections. In the Hyderabad constituency, it was only 46% last time. Why? Is it because only one community is voting in strength? Or is it just a trend similar to other urban constituencies all ...

Deans

If russia wanted, what is stopping it to sink cargo vessels with its own seadrone travelling along the shown coastal route ? Will it contravene some treaty or russia just cant ? The black sea is not `unblocked' for Ukraine. It's risky too risky for international shipping and even if they call on a ...

Deans

S_Madhukar wrote: ↑25 Mar 2024 15:10 So will Khujli be tried under POTA or some other terror related act ? He can’t just get away with some money laundering case !

Much as I would like to see that, there is no evidence that will hold up in court. We can hardly believe the word of a terrorist.

Deans

WHAT IS KNOWN - the shooters, originally from Tajikistan, fell under religious indoctrination online related to the Islamic State of the Khorasan Province - the indoctrination groups were supervised by a Tajikistani citizen called Salmon Khurosoni, he was the one who made the initial recruitment - ...

Deans

Part 7 of my blog on the Ukraine war. X posted from the Ukraine military thread.

https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2024/03/uk ... years.html

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