Bharat Rakshak

Saral

Week 3 NDA Table 1 is sorted in order of mean estimates (ESTIMATE) from each of the 26 distributions (rows). I use the center of each range as the weighting factor for each frequency (so 230.5 for the range 221 to 240). I used 180 and 320 as weights for the end ranges. Table 2 is sorted by CONFIDEN...

Saral

SwamyG. I am taking the liberty of adjusting your BJP numbers to NDA (didnt want to ignore your numbers) by adding 30 to the BJP numbers and estimating from there on.

Saral

TN is likely the most unexpected story in this election, according to 5forty3. Whoever advised Modi on that alliance in this Dravidian state needs to be saluted for his/her brilliance! I recall @swamy39 cribbing about the alliance. Maybe he was wrong. Longer term, NaMo is open to alliances even beyo...

Saral

The thread doesn't need to be locked. You can post later when the cutoff for week 4 is on. I'll compile it in the evening EST. p.s. I am tempted to downshift my NDA numbers to somewhat less than 272 but will resist and consider it for week 4. Does seems that 260+ is highly probable. And 300+ is too ...

Saral

New Nimbus 15 is here. Very soft, shock-absorbing like a voluptuous maiden, ready to take some serious pounding. The NB is too skinny.. I don't like to feel the bones.

Faith vindicated after 6 mile outdoor run. Nimbus is for the long haul, NB for short flings.

Saral

Lack of sleep is a potential killer. If someone on this forum can get this message through where it can be heard, please do. NaMo needs serious R&R and take his step off the gas pedal after May 12. The last thing we need is a health setback now.

Saral

I am pasting the art of living Padmasadhana sequence. I do not follow all the things in there (do not get up so early, don't combine it with meditation, I do have occasional non-veg and alcohol and of course onions and garlic and cheese). You can google details on each Asana. Naadi Shodhana is very ...

Saral

Asanas are good.. also helpful to raise your heart rate for at least 20 mins via jogging, cycling, brisk walking, skipping etc. Leg raises can include side leg raises as well. Balancing on one leg and increasing time will improve core. Lying on back and doing bicycle with legs also strengthens core....

Saral

Actually the reverse. They maybe more amenable to detoxification drives. Yes. Because they are more amenable to persuasive narratives, capable of understanding them, and modifying their self understanding. But it could go either way (towards radicalization or the other way, what you call "deto...

Saral

The mass of muslims in villages in Bihar are extraordinarily destitute, packed in really small areas for living spaces and mostly lowest of the low. This social dynamic has kept them less dominant and also less Islamic and mostly continued in a mismash of old ways mixed with Islam. There are villag...

Saral

Thanks. For the most part, the quality of discourse on MSM is pathetic. The quality of "experts" that Prannoy Roy had to discuss the polls was horrid. A decent, no-holds barred, documentary of Islam in India would go a long way in educating people (including Muslims) on their history and c...

Saral

Saral 15 35 35 15 0 0 0

Saral

How are Bihar Muslims so different from UP muslims that they are willing to go for BJP in reasonable numbers?

Saral

5forty3 isn't anything like Nate Silver. Silver used past data, state polls, national polls, reliability of pollsters, and simulation to generate forecasts (assigning probabilities to various scenarios). He could do this because reliable data is available in US, its a 2-party system, winner gets all...

Saral

Saral 0 0 0 10 65 25 0 Devesh: Please see the table notes above table 1 for CONFIDENCE definition. This is something I have proposed (not taken from anywhere, so I do not currently have a citation for this particular usage) for this exercise. The 2 extremes are 0 confidence and 100 confidence. 0 mea...

Saral

Subramaniam Swamy and RM go back a long ways. That's how he got the Modi one-on-one meeting (my speculation). Expect him to get a role in the new setting, 100% onlee. Maybe not right away.. but surely by end of the year? As to what Subramaniam Swamy will do is an even more interesting question.

Saral

MM Joshi should be put to pasture where he can do minimum harm. He likes to hog the limelight and is a motormouth. In fact Rajiv experienced this himself when BJP was in power (pertaining to a Sanskrit conference organized in Thailand.. RM did all the work setting it up and MMJ wanted to take all th...

Saral

Modi interview to Thanthi TV http://www.thanthitv.com/Video/VideoListing.aspx?channelID=6fb9d8ac5bfe4a3eb3af1f6b64677139 Man, he sounds extremely confident. Says in general front runner benefits from higher turnout, but this time there is only front runner!! The finger snapping by NaMo during an in...

Saral

Lurker on this thread. First of all, let me welcome Liu and others here. These are complex issues being discussed and we are better off trying to understand them than imputing motives (drones, overlords etc.). From a very high level view, China has a few decades head-start in development and also th...

Saral

Maybe a night in a sleep laboratory will at least rule out organic causes? Could it be temperature related? Cut down on video gaming maybe?? . The kind of sleep I used to have as a kid is alas a distant thing (natural as we age).

Saral

VVPAT is a step in the wrong direction and generally a waste of resources. We need better clever real-time fraud/malfunction detection techniques without infringing on privacy issues. That is, a new generation of EVMs. Ultimately, fraud can still happen in current systems if all the officials at a b...

Saral

All revisions valid till thread is locked next week

Saral

Driving day for me.. had a m-ass-a-g-e after driving and seems to have helped. Ordered Nimbus 15 as the NB isnt suited for me on outdoors bad terrain (gritted my teeth 110+5 tax.. paid 55 bucks for NB on some online sale). Sometimes they have us by our b*lls.

Saral

Once May 16 arrives, we could plot median estimates across time, consensus between judges (SD of estimate) across time, confidence across time, and finally median accuracy over time. Accuracy could be the squared deviation of each judgment (probability distribution) from the actual value (which coul...

Saral

Wheres the thread starter? (Arjun)

Saral

Did my usual outdoor 6 mi run.. Felt like walking before 2 mi (felt sore in thighs due to faster 3 mile day before ) and also wished I was wearing Nimbus for outdoors (more cushion than NB which is less shock absorbing). Persisted and things became easier after 3 miles. Then had to the first lawn mo...

Saral

Week 2 UPA Table 1 is sorted in order of mean estimates (ESTIMATE) from each of the 18 distributions (rows). I use the center of each range as the weighting factor for each frequency (so 105.5 for the range 101 to 110). I used 85 and 165 as weights for the end ranges. Table 2 is sorted by CONFIDENC...

Saral

Week 2 NDA Table 1 is sorted in order of mean estimates (ESTIMATE) from each of the 33 distributions (rows). I use the center of each range as the weighting factor for each frequency (so 230.5 for the range 221 to 240). I used 180 and 320 as weights for the end ranges. Table 2 is sorted by CONFIDEN...

Saral

NDA has already won by TKO. Remaining 2 rounds will let us know if it is a KO (300 plus). No need for points nuancing. The turn-out seems to have 2 aspects. Higher in general and lower for some segments. If that holds, it is a double-whammy and we are heading for true tsuNaMo. The writing is on the ...

Saral

18 entries so far in round 2 of UPA (21 in week 1)

Saral

26 entries for NDA so far.. Last week's tally was 41. Hopefully liquor can be distributed to increase turnout. Some new entries. Many drop-outs from week 1.

Saral

So far turnout for 2014 is up by 8%, compared to 2009. Unless there is some other explanation such as cleaning up of voter rolls, this increase seems to indicate wave that should favor BJP.

Saral

Jingos, 5Forty3.in is back on line. Here in massaland it loads, albeit terribly slowly. Traffic must be picking up for Dr.Patil's website. 5forty3.in doesn't resolve to an IP address suggesting that the domain name servers are somehow messed-up or hacked. Oddly the IP address for the domain doesn't...

Saral

The "population" in statistics as an abstract concept and does not necessarily map to the word population in English. If UP indeed has 6 distinct populations, then the sample for UP as a whole would necessarily be larger than Kerala (which I am assuming has less distinct regions or populat...

Saral

The ANI interview is a must watch. NaMo is a statesman that comes once in a century. Hope he stays healthy for a long while.

Saral

greying temples check, slight paunch check (love handles gone), approaching 53 in a few months. promise to do a HM later this year. Have to thank you guys for various tips like foam roller (RB) and others. Tricky maintaining old machines. Suraj's downhill bike exploits give me serious dhoti shiver.....

Saral

Without NaMo, it is safe to say max of 150 for BJP based on anti-UPA wave and past BJP tallies (range 130 to 150). Anything above 150 is due to NaMo and the catalytic effects on BJP (so there is a direct effect of NaMo on votes and an indirect effect on BJP organization via NaMo). If NDA+ reach near...

Saral

did a "fake" 3 miler on treadmill in 24 min.. fake because it wasn't hands free (also I had to go beyond 8 mph as I had started slowly). Would like to see the day when it feels comfortable and balanced (no cardio or leg issues at all.. just the feeling of the speed and concern that somethi...

Saral

For those of you who haven't heard Gadkari, here is

Saral

Varanasi doesn't seem to be the most secure place in the world. Hope NaMo takes all precautions.

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