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by Supratik
03 Dec 2023 13:05
Forum: Strategy, Politics & International Relations Forum
Topic: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023
Replies: 1718
Views: 388517

Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

BRS lost 4% votes, most likely Muslim votes to the INC in TG.
by Supratik
03 Dec 2023 12:57
Forum: Strategy, Politics & International Relations Forum
Topic: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023
Replies: 1718
Views: 388517

Re: Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

BJP lost 6% votes in TG to INC compared to 2019 LS. Removing Bandi Sanjay led to the disaster which allowed INC a majority.
by Supratik
08 Dec 2021 21:40
Forum: Strategy, Politics & International Relations Forum
Topic: Kaushal Vepa is no more. Om Shanti
Replies: 86
Views: 15551

Re: Kaushal Vepa is no more. Om Shanti

Om Shanti.

Once a great BRF warrior. One of my sparring partners from the 90s.
by Supratik
23 Nov 2021 01:42
Forum: Strategy, Politics & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 14901
Views: 2782838

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Very good decision. Why sirji? Primarily 5 reasons. 1) The Sangh has a very positive view of Sikhs for the umpteen sacrifices they have made for the civilization. So they don't want to push it too far. This agitation is primarily led by a sections of Sikhs and Jats of HY and west UP. 2) National se...
by Supratik
19 Nov 2021 22:57
Forum: Strategy, Politics & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 14901
Views: 2782838

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

States can still do farm reforms and enact laws as agriculture is in the states list. Karnataka has already amended their APMC act and business has started shifting out of mandis. MH previous admin had done it partially. Bihar abolished APMCs in 2005. The purpose of these laws was to accelerate the ...
by Supratik
01 Aug 2021 21:07
Forum: Science, Economics & Technology Forum
Topic: The Tokyo Olympic Games Thread
Replies: 306
Views: 64169

Re: The Tokyo Olympic Games Thread

This Indian team can win.
by Supratik
31 Jul 2021 22:15
Forum: Science, Economics & Technology Forum
Topic: The Tokyo Olympic Games Thread
Replies: 306
Views: 64169

Re: The Tokyo Olympic Games Thread

Request all of you to have patience. We are improving in many sports at different levels. A lot of private and govt effort is going in that direction and results have started showing. Perhaps not as fast as we would like but it is happening. Instead of being mere critics we should back those efforts...
by Supratik
26 Jul 2021 23:54
Forum: Science, Economics & Technology Forum
Topic: The Tokyo Olympic Games Thread
Replies: 306
Views: 64169

Re: The Tokyo Olympic Games Thread

Talent alone cannot make you champions if there is no ecosystem.
by Supratik
26 Jul 2021 21:37
Forum: Science, Economics & Technology Forum
Topic: The Tokyo Olympic Games Thread
Replies: 306
Views: 64169

Re: The Tokyo Olympic Games Thread

Also do we have the talent pool for coaches who can create champions? Not yet in many sports. That is why we need sports universities so that coaching becomes a professional career. Right now we have ex-players passing for coaches or with some certifications who may not have the capacity to make cha...
by Supratik
26 Jul 2021 21:32
Forum: Science, Economics & Technology Forum
Topic: The Tokyo Olympic Games Thread
Replies: 306
Views: 64169

Re: The Tokyo Olympic Games Thread

Govt. is already setting up 1000 Khelo India centers of excellence. The first dozen or so have been inaugurated. Idea is to cover each district with these centers. Each center will have infra for a few sports. They also have started the Khelo India games for school children. Both very good initiativ...
by Supratik
25 Jul 2021 22:49
Forum: Science, Economics & Technology Forum
Topic: The Tokyo Olympic Games Thread
Replies: 306
Views: 64169

Re: The Tokyo Olympic Games Thread

While I can understand the disappointment at not getting those shooting medals we don't need to go overboard with criticism. Remember we had the same problem in the shooting world championships where we wouldn't win many medals till we aced it starting roughly from 2017. These are world champions in...
by Supratik
25 Jul 2021 14:36
Forum: Science, Economics & Technology Forum
Topic: The Tokyo Olympic Games Thread
Replies: 306
Views: 64169

Re: The Tokyo Olympic Games Thread

They are not out of form. In 2021 also they will likely be shooting world champions. It is Olympic pressure. Being an Olympic champion is equivalent to winning the Nobel prize in sports. This young squad needs sports psychologists to train them to handle the pressure.
by Supratik
12 Jun 2021 15:39
Forum: Strategy, Politics & International Relations Forum
Topic: J&K Union Territory-2019
Replies: 4374
Views: 1344239

Re: J&K Union Territory-2019

Separating J&K into Jammu state and Kashmir UT will be good from many angles. The insurgency problem is restricted to the Kashmir valley. The security establishment can now focus on Kashmir and let Jammu, Ladakh become normal states/UT. In any case Jammu and Kashmir are as different as Bihar and...
by Supratik
11 Jun 2021 21:24
Forum: Strategy, Politics & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2021 Five State Elections
Replies: 1447
Views: 304759

Re: 2021 Five State Elections

I will give my brief analysis without taking anything away from RahulM. Two other major factors were there in 2021 WB election. The WB economy has grown at a CAGR (combined annual growth rate) of 10.5% in the last five years i.e. the economy has basically doubled. This is big for a state that was in...
by Supratik
03 May 2021 00:03
Forum: Strategy, Politics & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2021 Five State Elections
Replies: 1447
Views: 304759

Re: 2021 Five State Elections

As per wiki the BJP contested 20 seats in TN.
by Supratik
02 May 2021 20:07
Forum: Strategy, Politics & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2021 Five State Elections
Replies: 1447
Views: 304759

Re: 2021 Five State Elections

The Christian party in NDA has won the lone seat in KL.
by Supratik
02 May 2021 18:59
Forum: Strategy, Politics & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2021 Five State Elections
Replies: 1447
Views: 304759

Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Shivraj Singh Chauhan seems to be loosing his grip in MP. He has lost the bypoll by a large margin.
by Supratik
02 May 2021 15:32
Forum: Strategy, Politics & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2021 Five State Elections
Replies: 1447
Views: 304759

Re: 2021 Five State Elections

More ground work is necessary in WB especially in urban and semi-urban areas. BJP is a recent phenomenon in WB. Only in 2019 they became a force- less than 2 years.
by Supratik
02 May 2021 14:37
Forum: Strategy, Politics & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2021 Five State Elections
Replies: 1447
Views: 304759

Re: 2021 Five State Elections

By reliable second round in Assam I mean just get an org like UIDAI to reverify the database.
by Supratik
02 May 2021 14:35
Forum: Strategy, Politics & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2021 Five State Elections
Replies: 1447
Views: 304759

Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Regarding Assam. A combined M vote has not been able to defeat the BJP. This was achieved after several rounds of elections. In AS the only thing that is left to do is to complete a reliable second round of NRC along with national NRC and get the Hs to go for counter demographic mobilization. For th...
by Supratik
02 May 2021 14:19
Forum: Strategy, Politics & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2021 Five State Elections
Replies: 1447
Views: 304759

Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Why all this rona-dhona? Massive change has taken place in WB. Remember this state had Left as ruling party and INC as opposition party. Doomsday scenario. Now it has pro-Hindu parties. The TMC is run by the Hindus previously in INC.
by Supratik
02 May 2021 14:06
Forum: Strategy, Politics & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2021 Five State Elections
Replies: 1447
Views: 304759

Re: 2021 Five State Elections

I meant those already "within India" back.

There are no national security issues left in WB except NRC. The rest is economy and governance issues.
by Supratik
02 May 2021 13:56
Forum: Strategy, Politics & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2021 Five State Elections
Replies: 1447
Views: 304759

Re: 2021 Five State Elections

No any further illegal immigration on a massive scale is probably not going to happen. The reasons are two. Bdesh TFR has fallen below replacement level and their economy is booming. What remains to be done is to send those already inside WB back. If the BJP is not doing well in north bengal and eas...
by Supratik
02 May 2021 13:32
Forum: Strategy, Politics & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2021 Five State Elections
Replies: 1447
Views: 304759

Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Do not despair about WB. Both ruling and opposition now believe in the same economic policy i.e. market economy plus welfarism. The challengers are decimated. Good economic activity is happening in WB now and urban, semi-urban people who get to see less communal violence are not very unhappy. The on...
by Supratik
02 May 2021 12:06
Forum: Strategy, Politics & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2021 Five State Elections
Replies: 1447
Views: 304759

Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Now I am looking at vote share from ECI. Huge lead for TMC. So people are voting BJP at center and TMC at state.
by Supratik
02 May 2021 12:03
Forum: Strategy, Politics & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2021 Five State Elections
Replies: 1447
Views: 304759

Re: 2021 Five State Elections

I am looking at the margins in WB. Most are low margin leads. So the gap has been narrowed but not enough. But INC-Left is finished in WB.
by Supratik
02 May 2021 11:36
Forum: Strategy, Politics & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2021 Five State Elections
Replies: 1447
Views: 304759

Re: 2021 Five State Elections

There is very little anti-incumbency against TMC in urban, semi-urban areas. Almost the entire M vote from INC-Left has shifted to TMC. Bhadralok is still averse to BJP and has staid with TMC. Expect more appeasement. Big setback for NRC and national interest.
by Supratik
29 Apr 2021 21:24
Forum: Strategy, Politics & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2021 Five State Elections
Replies: 1447
Views: 304759

Re: 2021 Five State Elections

The other election to look towards is Tirupati by-polls.
by Supratik
29 Apr 2021 20:55
Forum: Strategy, Politics & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2021 Five State Elections
Replies: 1447
Views: 304759

Re: 2021 Five State Elections

It seems BJP is coming to power in WB. TN is a toss-up. Tomorrow I will write on what needs to be done in Bengal to clean-up the mess.
by Supratik
27 Apr 2021 22:44
Forum: Strategy, Politics & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2021 Five State Elections
Replies: 1447
Views: 304759

Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Not possible at present.
by Supratik
27 Apr 2021 22:30
Forum: Strategy, Politics & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2021 Five State Elections
Replies: 1447
Views: 304759

Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Fertility gap is converging in WB but less so in AS. Let the NPR happen and if it is seeded with Adhaar we will have solid data. Right now it is all over the place. Then only illegal immigrants are left to be detected and legal citizens verified by NRC. The govt knows what it is doing.
by Supratik
27 Apr 2021 21:38
Forum: Strategy, Politics & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2021 Five State Elections
Replies: 1447
Views: 304759

Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Ghost citizens are citizens who do not exist in reality. Census figures are in reality an estimate. None of the census officials do a name by name search. That is why the NPR where you (if I understood it correctly) do a self-declaration. That will give you a ball park figure but it can still be fud...
by Supratik
27 Apr 2021 20:23
Forum: Strategy, Politics & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2021 Five State Elections
Replies: 1447
Views: 304759

Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Illegal immigrants estimate from Assam NRC Assam: 1 million M, 0.5 million H detected 1-1.5 million - most likely have entered the NRC fraudulently, were detected in first round. Ghost citizens: About 2.5 million (from 2011 census). You can take a hunch who they will be. My estimate WB: 6-8 million ...
by Supratik
25 Jan 2020 17:57
Forum: Strategy, Politics & International Relations Forum
Topic: Deterrence
Replies: 5129
Views: 860749

Re: Deterrence

And Agni 4 weight is I believe 17 tonnes.
by Supratik
25 Jan 2020 17:46
Forum: Strategy, Politics & International Relations Forum
Topic: Deterrence
Replies: 5129
Views: 860749

Re: Deterrence

In any case coming back to the original argument the long range Indian missiles have a range and the lower range is stated e.g. there is no official report that Agni 5 is anything but 5000 kms missile but Chinese sources have stated that it is 5000-8000 kms range.
by Supratik
25 Jan 2020 17:40
Forum: Strategy, Politics & International Relations Forum
Topic: Deterrence
Replies: 5129
Views: 860749

Re: Deterrence

This is not the article I am talking about.
by Supratik
25 Jan 2020 17:01
Forum: Strategy, Politics & International Relations Forum
Topic: Deterrence
Replies: 5129
Views: 860749

Re: Deterrence

I am just reporting what is available open source from credible sources. The Hindu/Frontline has the best reportage on govt science/technology in India. Now if you start questioning it then it becomes a problem.
by Supratik
25 Jan 2020 16:29
Forum: Strategy, Politics & International Relations Forum
Topic: Deterrence
Replies: 5129
Views: 860749

Re: Deterrence

You are asking for classified information. If you are writing or editing wiki on missiles you should be knowing that the earlier version of A3 was not very efficient. Payload information or vehicle size was not available IIRC.