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by Theo_Fidel
20 Oct 2018 05:19
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Renewable Sources of Energy
Replies: 301
Views: 28057

Re: Renewable Sources of Energy

Katare wrote:Wacky!


And pointless too. Concrete Has 5 times the density of water, so that entire stack contains as much energy as a pond of water 5 times the size of that stack. There are bigger water tanks in the world....
by Theo_Fidel
13 Oct 2018 00:40
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Renewable Sources of Energy
Replies: 301
Views: 28057

Re: Renewable Sources of Energy

For the size of the system it is non-trivial.

Just like the heart/circulatory system is non-trivial for the human body. It consumes 15% of the calories you need every day. Non-trivial.
by Theo_Fidel
12 Oct 2018 22:49
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Renewable Sources of Energy
Replies: 301
Views: 28057

Re: Renewable Sources of Energy

Flow Batteries are expensive. Right now running @ $500 / kw. this is comparable to a coal plant or a NG plant. The ultimate potential cost is $150 / kw. Still expensive. And it has maintenance. The liquid power density is also very low. on the order of 10-15 watts / liter. A 1 MW plant would need to...
by Theo_Fidel
02 Aug 2018 08:49
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: India's Power Sector
Replies: 1500
Views: 199764

Re: India's Power Sector

Siva saar,

Agreed.
Thx for the link. Do you know whar the mwhr capacity of kadamparai is?
by Theo_Fidel
31 Jul 2018 17:42
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: India's Power Sector
Replies: 1500
Views: 199764

Re: India's Power Sector

Gyan, That's a shame. Despite higher cost right now GOI should bid out smaller 100mw type plants every year. Doesn't break the bank but keeps the tech improving. If we can kick off offshore wind with 1000mw we can surely do least 100mw of CSP Nandakumar, Yes,yes and yes. Just to beat the drum one mo...
by Theo_Fidel
28 Jul 2018 21:11
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: India's Power Sector
Replies: 1500
Views: 199764

Re: India's Power Sector

Gyan,

Have there been any India CSP bids recently. Is it getting closer to pv Rs 3 / kWh number
by Theo_Fidel
28 Jul 2018 00:00
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: India's Power Sector
Replies: 1500
Views: 199764

Re: India's Power Sector

Coal is not going to go down easily. There are millions of people working in the supply chain. WRT apartments they may move towards aggregating pv. To supply about 20 mwh per family of 5 in 1800 kWh / m2 India we need about 50 m2 per family. Maybe cover car parks,west/east/ South side of building. O...
by Theo_Fidel
11 Jul 2018 00:47
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: India's Power Sector
Replies: 1500
Views: 199764

Re: India's Power Sector

It is all accounted for. Maybe at at one time not any more. Things are a lot more efficient now. There is a reason demand growth is crawling even as the population is much more prosperous than 20 years ago. There is also a lot of low hanging fruit in terms of efficiency and losses to draw on. Right ...
by Theo_Fidel
10 Jul 2018 19:27
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: India's Power Sector
Replies: 1500
Views: 199764

Re: India's Power Sector

What is this 300,000 MW a metric of? peak/generation/capacity? Assuming it is peak. Unlikely. Maybe 30,000-50,000 MW tops peak generation. A/C is very well correlated with Solar PV so Solar will pick up almost all of this demand.
by Theo_Fidel
10 Jul 2018 02:30
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: India's Power Sector
Replies: 1500
Views: 199764

Re: India's Power Sector

Actually your charts seem to bear out what I was saying. Look at China's graph and the increase in electricity usage there. We are 15-20 years behind them in per capita GDP. Our graph has a long way to go up before it starts dipping. Even the Chinese one hasn't started dipping yet and their populat...
by Theo_Fidel
10 Jul 2018 02:05
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: India's Power Sector
Replies: 1500
Views: 199764

Re: India's Power Sector

As India gets older electricity needs will go down, etc.
rsingh wrote:what makes you to come to such conclusions?


It tends to move that way. We will see.

Image
by Theo_Fidel
05 Jul 2018 23:17
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: India's Power Sector
Replies: 1500
Views: 199764

Re: India's Power Sector

Nachiket/Rishi, We may be closer to the peak than most folks suspect. We did the numbers here on BRF many years ago. To get close to First World living. Yes, including A/C for all and maybe even electric cars. Carefully with maximum efficiency, the thought was that India could do it with per capita ...
by Theo_Fidel
13 Apr 2018 10:56
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: India's Power Sector
Replies: 1500
Views: 199764

Re: India's Power Sector

Deleted
by Theo_Fidel
13 Apr 2018 01:09
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: India's Power Sector
Replies: 1500
Views: 199764

Re: India's Power Sector

Off shore will never be a cheap as onshore wind and solar pv. But there are reasons to do it as the generation profile is different from onshore. India has an impressive coastline and majority of states will have access to this power. From the GJ & TN offshore feasability reports the wind dip co...
by Theo_Fidel
12 Apr 2018 10:36
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: India's Power Sector
Replies: 1500
Views: 199764

Re: India's Power Sector

Mort Walker wrote:12 MW is peak power. Average is 13% of that. About 1.6 MW is typical. Lots of specmanship and salesmanship going on.


Offshore capacity factor is close to 60%.
by Theo_Fidel
11 Apr 2018 23:31
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: India's Power Sector
Replies: 1500
Views: 199764

Re: India's Power Sector

If the environment brigade does not object then just 84 of these turbines each generating 12 MW will be enough to generate the proposed 1000 MW. Unlike the onshore turbines which max out at 3 MW, the offshore ones with longer blades and bigger rotors come in capacities of 8 MW and up. It is propose...
by Theo_Fidel
11 Apr 2018 22:11
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: India's Power Sector
Replies: 1500
Views: 199764

Re: India's Power Sector

Looks like GOI reads BRF. This is exactly what I proposed a year ago. The Bay of Khambat has enough wind energy to power all of India. Rs 7 is high but I think India can do better. Rs 5 or 8 cents / kwhr should be possible for first round. Ultimately should get to the Rs 3 level. Rope in some privat...
by Theo_Fidel
03 Apr 2018 21:55
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: India's Power Sector
Replies: 1500
Views: 199764

Re: India's Power Sector

This is the big reason why per unit rates of solar are falling in India, and elsewhere across the world. I understand the economies of scale are being met, but like much else, China has cornered most of the manufacturing and dumps it across the world. Not doubt about it dumping is going on. But whe...
by Theo_Fidel
29 Mar 2018 23:42
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: India's Power Sector
Replies: 1500
Views: 199764

Re: India's Power Sector

Katare Saar, well said.... -------------------------- Commerce Ministry ends anti-dumping probe into solar cells import on industry's request https://www.businesstoday.in/sectors/energy/commerce-ministry-ends-anti-dumping-probe-into-solar-cells-import-on-industry-request/story/273296.html The Indian...
by Theo_Fidel
11 Mar 2018 01:18
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: India's Power Sector
Replies: 1500
Views: 199764

Re: India's Power Sector

60% Capacity Factor wind turbine Lots of interesting info on future very large turbines. these are offshore turbines right. One of GOI's targets out there is 10,000 MW of offshore wind turbines. I had done a calculation earlier that just the Bay of Khambhat has enough space to satisfy all India pow...
by Theo_Fidel
11 Mar 2018 00:24
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: India's Power Sector
Replies: 1500
Views: 199764

Re: India's Power Sector

One thing to keep in mind is that the base of the graph Guru Shetty posted starts at 14000 MW. Not zero. It also does not show the roughly 5000 MW of rooftop solar behind the meter. What this means is that there is a lot of remaining demand that solar can 'eat into' over time. California also has ab...
by Theo_Fidel
23 Feb 2018 09:54
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: India's Power Sector
Replies: 1500
Views: 199764

Re: India's Power Sector

Maybe early and late in the day but not normally during the day. The rating is linked to inverter capacity not panel, inverter is always undersized to panel. The extra is clipped. 100% and above of capacity during maid day is normal. No sir. This is the solar PV output before being inverted. I’m no...
by Theo_Fidel
22 Feb 2018 23:13
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: India's Power Sector
Replies: 1500
Views: 199764

Re: India's Power Sector

Mort Walker wrote:but will only generate 60% of installed between 11AM-1PM.


Maybe early and late in the day but not normally during the day. The rating is linked to inverter capacity not panel, inverter is always undersized to panel. The extra is clipped. 100% and above of capacity during maid day is normal.
by Theo_Fidel
21 Feb 2018 17:06
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: India's Power Sector
Replies: 1500
Views: 199764

Re: India's Power Sector

You shouldn't extrapolate from December solar generation for India. The yearly average is closer to 19%. In the medium term something closer to 25% will be common as newer technology, PERC, Bifacial, Mono, single axis tracker, etc becomes more prevalent. It is not a mature technology and large cost ...
by Theo_Fidel
20 Feb 2018 22:36
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: India's Power Sector
Replies: 1500
Views: 199764

Re: India's Power Sector

You should consider that Coal plants really only operate at 50% LF these days. So that 80 MW is closer to 200 MW coal plant. That 15 GW is closer to 30 GW. $760 Million is not a bad price for a 200 MW coal plant. And you avoid all the fuel cost. A 200 MW coal plant would need about 500,000 Tons of c...
by Theo_Fidel
20 Feb 2018 12:26
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: India's Power Sector
Replies: 1500
Views: 199764

Re: India's Power Sector

Again as pointed out this does not matter. All the costs are already baked in and given in Rs / kwhr. They’re baked in for a given installed power capacity. If your needs for power exceed capacity, then costs go up. Why? If you are worried about the reserve, you are still saving the cost of fuel fo...
by Theo_Fidel
20 Feb 2018 10:52
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: India's Power Sector
Replies: 1500
Views: 199764

Re: India's Power Sector

Mort Walker wrote:Except that for the same amount of power (energy/time) you’ve got to install nearly 3 times the panels.


Again as pointed out this does not matter. All the costs are already baked in and given in Rs / kwhr. The utility really only considers the price of the power.
by Theo_Fidel
20 Feb 2018 03:49
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: India's Power Sector
Replies: 1500
Views: 199764

Re: India's Power Sector

The true cost of solar is 3-5 times the advertised price. Not a clue where you are getting this from but it not correct. Assuming only 20 GW solar was installed as of 31 Dec 2017, then we're talking about 14% actual power generated from installed capacity. Again, please correct me if I'm wrong (and...
by Theo_Fidel
20 Feb 2018 03:47
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: India's Power Sector
Replies: 1500
Views: 199764

Re: India's Power Sector

I think a lot of energy efficiency drives are paying up which shows up as lower demand. All those LED bulbs and TVs are cutting down on the load. That's the conventional view. In which case it may unfortunately be a one time thing. Once inefficiencies are wrung out demand may start surging again. W...
by Theo_Fidel
19 Feb 2018 23:17
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: India's Power Sector
Replies: 1500
Views: 199764

Re: India's Power Sector

Yeah! I agree. The establishment will never change its mind. One of the reasons India ended up so far behind in the Solar manufacturing side. Establishment focused on increasing Coal and Nuclear power plant manufacturing, only to discover most of it is now a stranded asset. BHEL once had a projectio...
by Theo_Fidel
19 Feb 2018 21:55
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: India's Power Sector
Replies: 1500
Views: 199764

Re: India's Power Sector

I would not say it has won just yet. I would say it is on a path to dominance. Think about this, India got to its 2022 target of 20 GW of solar 5 years early. And it was quite effortless mind you. From what I can see. Lots and lots of folks from management to utility to politicians have been wrong c...
by Theo_Fidel
13 Feb 2018 09:04
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: India's Power Sector
Replies: 1500
Views: 199764

Re: India's Power Sector

Mort Walker wrote:Theo,

Don’t confuse roof top solar to what is being put on the grid.


not rooftop, utility scale. thx
by Theo_Fidel
11 Feb 2018 11:07
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: India's Power Sector
Replies: 1500
Views: 199764

Re: India's Power Sector

At the latest auctions in Colorado Solar + li-ion storage ( 4-6 hours) bid @ 4.4 cents / kWh for 2023, no subsidy. Insolation similar to most of India 1800-2000. I don,t think anyone is safe at this point. Even wind may struggle to keep up. This is permanently low price as there is no fuel volatilit...
by Theo_Fidel
03 Jan 2018 10:29
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Solar energy in India
Replies: 1007
Views: 72959

Re: Solar energy in India

I'm planning roof top solar panels for a new build in karnataka. In Karnataka with relatively benign climate, I would not bother with Panels from Germany. Almost all components, including those from Germany are sourced from the same handful of Asian suppliers. Only final assembly is local. Same is ...
by Theo_Fidel
17 Dec 2017 05:36
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Solar energy in India
Replies: 1007
Views: 72959

Re: Solar energy in India

Rishi, Looks like you may get your wish. Much better idea than the tariff proposals. GOI should also strong arm the manufacturers to co-locate to 1-2 locations all the components. This is part of the China cheap story. http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/govt-proposes-rs-11-000-c...
by Theo_Fidel
16 Dec 2017 03:29
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Solar energy in India
Replies: 1007
Views: 72959

Re: Solar energy in India

A bit ambitious and with minimal spade work having been done... India to auction 5,000 Mw offshore wind power projects in 2018 https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/renewable/india-to-auction-5000-mw-offshore-wind-power-projects-in-2018/62068078 "Our target is that we would auction a...
by Theo_Fidel
06 Dec 2017 04:08
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Solar energy in India
Replies: 1007
Views: 72959

Re: Solar energy in India

Calling the rates bogus maybe a bit harsh. The rates are built on market assumptions. In any case they are really the only credible signal we have from the market of the cost of production. No PWD bureaucrat assumption this. IMO about 10% of these cost assumption should go bankrupt, that is how pric...
by Theo_Fidel
06 Dec 2017 00:33
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Solar energy in India
Replies: 1007
Views: 72959

Re: Solar energy in India

If there is domestic production of coal and gas, then it will be used over imports for coal power and natural gas power plants. The figures point out that these thermal plants are still producing the bulk of power and will continue to do so in the foreseeable future. The figures tell me something v...
by Theo_Fidel
04 Dec 2017 23:15
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Solar energy in India
Replies: 1007
Views: 72959

Re: Solar energy in India

Yes, RES production will go up but so will consumption of fossil fuels. Keep in mind we are only discussing electricity here. India is in a peculiar situation. We import ~ 250 million tons of coal a year. Yes much of our coal is now imported, though some for industrial feed. Every additional mwhr o...
by Theo_Fidel
04 Dec 2017 23:08
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Solar energy in India
Replies: 1007
Views: 72959

Re: Solar energy in India

It is wind energy generation not solar. its actually Solar. I wonder what will happen to the coal plants, if the price of electricity drops that much. Hi Rishi, Ashish is correct. Turns out based on the CELs that it is indeed a wind power project. But the Solar low is Mitsui with $19.70 / mwhr and ...

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