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by samuel
04 Oct 2009 22:10
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-3
Replies: 1343
Views: 121364

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-3

What's to be served by this, Arun? Sorry, but you need to get in there and steadily squeeze rounds off. It is obvious to a rank outsider like me with zero affiliations that the forum has several agendavadis, which I suppose makes it interesting. When the argument, for example, becomes the very lack ...
by samuel
04 Oct 2009 21:17
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-3
Replies: 1343
Views: 121364

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-3

So, how should be go about restarting testing to improve our arsenal and weapon systems, and not just be considered to have the incredible deterrent using two tests that causes no credible worry (anywhere else?). Or, how should we go about dismantling everybody's arsenal?

S
by samuel
04 Oct 2009 20:40
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-3
Replies: 1343
Views: 121364

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-3

China's NFU: http://nuclearthreatinitiative.org/db/china/nfuorg.htm And note arguments: Chinese arguments: * NFU is important to preventing nuclear war, strengthening the nonproliferation regime, and promoting nuclear disarmament * The United States does not need to reserve the right to use nuclear ...
by samuel
04 Oct 2009 20:25
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-3
Replies: 1343
Views: 121364

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-3

From same article: Table 1. US Nuclear Warheads in the Enduring Stockpile (2006). Warhead types that are to be partially dismantled are marked with an *. This table does not include the B62 (580 warheads) and W84 (383 warheads), which are scheduled for full dismantlement. [R.S. Norris and H.M. Krist...
by samuel
03 Oct 2009 18:56
Forum: Trash Can Archive
Topic: Indian Core: Ideas and descriptions-I
Replies: 462
Views: 28899

Re: Indian Core: Ideas and descriptions-I

it may perhaps be useful as an example of the Indian core to describe how you celebrate diwali (deepavali) and surrounding festivals (say start from dussehra).
by samuel
28 Sep 2009 10:00
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 165032

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Here are what I remember of the main claims: Arun_S wrote: So the data that is added from above is: 1. the TN device had a yield of 20-25 kilotons and not 45 kilotons (I.e. same yield as the S2 Pure Fission warhead) 2. The primary FBF trigger of the TN worked as desired 3. The S1 Secondary fusion th...
by samuel
24 Sep 2009 11:18
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 165032

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

But Masaru, 62 was just a limited border skirmish not a nuclear war. If China had nuked us then, definitely a feeling in the heart arises that all the good in the world will come to help us. The world can't sit by such a tragedy yaar, what are you saying. /why can't I do pisko nicely like the shakin...
by samuel
24 Sep 2009 08:19
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 165032

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Err Sridhar, ok to admit I was being a tad bit sarcastic?

S
by samuel
24 Sep 2009 08:01
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 165032

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Deterrence really is the threat that we are capable of sustaining and escalating the conflict to assured destruction of our adversary. It is the threat of mutually assured destruction that prevents the conflict from starting. It does the nash equilibrium thing.

S
by samuel
24 Sep 2009 07:59
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 165032

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deterrence_theory Psychology and deterrence A new form of criticism emerged in the late 1980s with detailed analyses of the actions of individual leaders and groups of leaders in crisis situations (historical and theoretical). A number of new or nuanced criticisms of &qu...
by samuel
24 Sep 2009 07:52
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 165032

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

So, this has all been gamed before -- is MAD the only viable deterrent posture with respect to your immediate adversaries?
by samuel
24 Sep 2009 07:39
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 165032

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Bingo, we need Tactical Nukes.
The "Top" is covered, but the "bottom" remains exposed.
by samuel
24 Sep 2009 07:30
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 165032

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

What I want to know is how many kilotons of nuclear bomb does it takes for India to react with its 1/4 total recall. I think the doctrine calls for >0. but after that logic fizzles. I think we should conduct a poll... Will India retaliate with "all it got" when 0.1KT of explosion over Arun...
by samuel
24 Sep 2009 07:12
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 165032

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

sudeepj, China will never use a nuclear weapon against India because then it will face massive retaliation and lose 1/4 of every major city (which is unmentionable damage) and lose face in the world. Its economy will collapse because the world will come to the support of beleaguered India. They won'...
by samuel
24 Sep 2009 04:08
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 165032

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

OK, then, my turn:

Ra Ra Khetolai
Lover of the Pokhran dream
There was a sizzle that really was gone
RA RA fizzle steam
India's greatest bomb machine
It's a shame how it carries on
by samuel
23 Sep 2009 22:07
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 165032

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Why not do better and use frequency domain reflectometry (are there range or bandwidth problems)? We can send a chirp tuned to a wavenumber and watch what happens to it the return strength as a function of frequency Instant reconstruction of P-wave spectra. If we use one of the frequencies as the no...
by samuel
22 Sep 2009 03:41
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 165032

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

OK. No dice then at current level of info. What do you make of KS's persisitence? Just his conviction or backing? Its no mean task to take on MKN. KS won't fold and I think things don't add up. There's no TN deterrent. $1 to anyone if I lose (happily). There of course is a deterrent of the smiling ...
by samuel
22 Sep 2009 03:23
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 165032

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Yes, if you recall I had many graphs for geostrategic stuff...they all came from graphical models only. If we use an information theoretic measure on top of probabilities, we have a very powerful inference engine for all sorts of problems (it takes lot of computation to "converge"). S PS: ...
by samuel
22 Sep 2009 03:22
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 165032

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

As NRao points out, graphical models need lots of data. But in geophysical problems such as the problems we have, data is always at a premium and very expensive to gather. For example, oil companies might drive around a shot + receiver system to quantify the seismic stack of the subsurface and this ...
by samuel
22 Sep 2009 03:17
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 165032

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Ramana, Yes, my group studies Belief Propagation (BP) algorithms for loopy graphs and constructs graphical models for spatially extended stochastic systems. We try to use it as a way both to do (approximate) inference and learn (probabilistically) what the best model for doing inference is. For Line...
by samuel
21 Sep 2009 22:53
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 165032

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Nobody sat down and came up with a map of the medium's response using multiple sources and sensors. Even heterodyning has only just been used. They- calibrated sensors many times. They tested trigger many times. They used m(b) = aY + b to determine and a and b are scalars. Where a was used from i) S...
by samuel
21 Sep 2009 22:39
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 165032

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

No boss, Narayanan, You gotta do better than your namesake. Look at what they did for so-called system identification and even you, who would've been happy with a linear if grudgingly anisotropic medium, will find it shocking. If one of your students did this to quantify the vibration modes of a win...
by samuel
21 Sep 2009 21:32
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 165032

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Shiv - way too much is being made of omissions of bomb yields in op-ed articles. Just because somebody didn't mention - say 10 kiloton weapons - it does not mean they don't exist. Santhanam seems to have claimed 25 kt -27KT for S1 and 20-25kt for S2. In addition, TN devices have been designed with ...
by samuel
21 Sep 2009 21:29
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 165032

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Only here, on this forum, a few pages back it was being argued that the TN performed better than advertised. Here we are now, saying, who could possibly in their right mind think the TN actually worked. OK, thanks for that gem of white washing. To recap... 1. TN- fizz. S1 - 25+2KT - ~60% of 45KT, fa...
by samuel
21 Sep 2009 19:54
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 165032

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Imagine a situation where the enemy deploys "tactical nukes" that nearly take out two divisions in the early stages of the war, because they did not have a) sufficient number of divisions and b) they did not have the time. So, India, retaliates by destroying a population, it launches its p...
by samuel
21 Sep 2009 09:28
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 165032

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

We know now, it would appear, that Pokhran-2 was not as successful as claimed. The TN did not work as advertised. As a result, the approach being taken is to suggest that TNs are not necessary to deter; 25 or 15 or 5KT will all do just fine, if necessary, in numbers and, further, who would be crazy ...
by samuel
20 Sep 2009 22:32
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 165032

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Sanku-ji You stole the words out of my mouth. I had just decided against "submit"ting a message just like yours. But, I'll second now. The thread's turning into a mess. Please pause and go back to questions. 1. State of test. 2. State of deterrence. Do we have TN or not, is it needed, if n...
by samuel
20 Sep 2009 21:59
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 165032

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Ramana, Is this what you had in mind. P == probability, hopefully other terms are explanatory. Many factors missing here, of course, but this can be a start. Distribution to quantify: ZZ = P(deterremce, #bombs, total_damage, #competitors, #bombs_competitor, damage_comp) Question to ask MAP, mode, or...
by samuel
20 Sep 2009 10:02
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 165032

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Ramana-garu if we can seal the gates then we ought to let people bash each other up for a while and let it come down to the truth. Otherwise, we shove too much under the carpet and that may be our single biggest weakness. We'll deal with the fall out, but first lets get to the truth...when presented...
by samuel
20 Sep 2009 09:56
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 165032

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

ok, that clarifies many doubts Arun. Many thanks. I am ready to do a simulation of this scenario. My notes: ** The yield calculations do not rely on pok-1 or some other basin, but values consistent with pok-1 pegged at 8-10KT. ** cratering was due to depth difference. s1 was designed for higher yiel...
by samuel
20 Sep 2009 09:20
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 165032

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Right, I got/know that interference approach. It's common in acoustics. And as Shaurya just said, PKI did peg POK-1 at 8 - 10KT. That would be consistent with at least some (the more robust) of the two calculations reported in Shaardula's cited article. But, nevertheless, I am shocked at how primiti...
by samuel
20 Sep 2009 08:57
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 165032

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Arun_S, anxiety definetely up. Here, just a quick clarification. Apparently using m(B) differences for estimating yield linearly, one arrives at a 27-30KT POK-2 yield if POK-1 is assumed to be around 8KT (Please see article shaardula quoted on this page). But if this is an estimate of total site yie...
by samuel
20 Sep 2009 02:30
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 165032

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

0. All done, no need to test any more.
1. TN performed better than advertised.
2. TN performed maybe.
3. The guy is unstable. Loose talk. Open mic, why now.
4. What's in a test.
5. Who needs a TN. <-- here is where we are now.
6. Let's just scale S2.
by samuel
19 Sep 2009 22:08
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 165032

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

I am posting the Chief's interview in full as referenced by Sanjay. This opens the pandora's box even more in my mind but that in another post. t How do the armed forces respond to reports that cast a doubt over either the credibility of India's nuclear deterrent as well as reports that suggest that...
by samuel
19 Sep 2009 21:54
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 165032

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Thanks Shiv for intro to nukes...there's plenty of "online" info on the 10Kg Pu version etc. So, if it's all that easy, why not scale up and remove all doubt?

S
PS: Thanks Sanjay. I did not read the interview.
by samuel
19 Sep 2009 21:46
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 165032

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

http://www.expressindia.com/latest-news/Scientists-need-to-reassure-army-on-Hbomb-yield-ExIndian-Army-chief/513569/ Terming the recent comments of former DRDO scientist K Santhanam, questioning the yield of the thermonuclear device tested on May 11, 1998 as "shocking", he said doubts over ...
by samuel
19 Sep 2009 20:46
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 165032

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Absolutely fantastic. 1. We all are leaning that everybody knew that the TN wasn't working in the last 10 years. 2. So, when they said after Pokhran that we need more tests they really said they did not need a TN for a deterrent. 3. If that were true, what would've been the problem with saying (back...
by samuel
19 Sep 2009 20:29
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 165032

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

For 11 years we thought we had a TN. What did we really have then? Could they have kept the bluff, err deterrent, up with only a 100-300KG payload delivery system? No. Has the army ever tested a nuclear warhead and certified it? (No, they trusted their scientists). If Santhanam's cooking things up, ...
by samuel
19 Sep 2009 19:24
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 165032

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

In other words, now that it is clear that the TN doesn't work, the right thing to do is to forget about it, question the credibility of the messenger, and focus on things that everyone agrees does. True, there are no heroes here.

S
by samuel
19 Sep 2009 07:50
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 165032

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

One interesting thing shaardula hints at is that, look these are serious problems that a lot of serious minds must've gone into and all this is just smoke screen for some public consumption. Bade says yeah, we'll never see any of this published, not even in physica(Z) if that existed. I don't agree....

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