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by samuel
19 Sep 2009 04:14
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 164601

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

We can easily calculate the sensitivity of the relationship to depth and assume it works in a certain linearized regime about a certain point. Clearly, if Yield is zero and depth is 100m, Ds is not infinity!

S
by samuel
19 Sep 2009 04:07
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 164601

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Shaardula, to answer your question, I will say that direct simulation the governing equations with any fidelity to reality requires several things a) resolution. b) proper BCs c) Proper ICs d) Proper parameters of the transport/dynamics part. e) Proper parameterization (not same as parameters) of th...
by samuel
19 Sep 2009 03:57
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 164601

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Let's look at these realations: Ds = D/(Y^1/3.4) This is empirical. ok. D is usually known to people putting bomb. Let's say that's 200m. Y has somehow been inferred independently, let's say that was 45KT This implies Ds = 65. What medium produces a zilch radius or little retarc for this Ds? Looks l...
by samuel
19 Sep 2009 00:42
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 164601

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

That I wonder about too...why did he not come out during 123? Irrespectively, is what he saying make sense. Prima facie it appears to and needs a response because he was central to the test.
S
by samuel
19 Sep 2009 00:15
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 164601

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Well, Snow-ji, generally speaking it is difficult to figure out what motivations one has to do something. Santhanam may or may not have motivations, but if his statements can be backed up, then no need to hound the messenger, I would agree. Similarly, people here write with all sorts of motivations ...
by samuel
18 Sep 2009 23:55
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 164601

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

I wonder if 25KT is our default credible minimum deterrent?
by samuel
18 Sep 2009 23:26
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 164601

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Of course he said that they conducted numerous tests of the trigger. As here: The DRDO also designed and conducted numerous tests of the High Explosive (HE) Trigger of the TN test. BARC scientists witnessed these tests, took copies of test records, and expressed satisfaction with the DRDO’s work. Bu...
by samuel
18 Sep 2009 22:41
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 164601

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Shaardula...thanks...Calibration, model state estimation, system identification, parameter estimation, model reference control,or even simple feedback control, inverse filtering, deconvolution, source separation, yada yada... many names for solving what typically turn out to be different flavors of ...
by samuel
18 Sep 2009 22:06
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 164601

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

From Krishnan's citation: Q: We hear that you now going to separate the civil and military aspects of the programme with DRDO taking care of the military part and secondly are you now going to put your civilian reactors under safeguards? A: (K) - I do not know what you are talking about. We co-exist...
by samuel
18 Sep 2009 21:44
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 164601

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Santhanam says: The sensors and instrumentation were calibrated several hundred times and perfected. They fully met international standards and were acknowledged to be so by BARC. (Santhanam does not say 100s of bombs etc. though I can see why one trying to make a point will infer that). Here is a s...
by samuel
18 Sep 2009 07:46
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Can nuclear deterrence survive on a bluff?
Replies: 148
Views: 12030

Re: Can nuclear deterrence survive on a bluff?

We got a ~15KT fission-sizz that can be scaled up 5 times ~75-80KT, based on existing wisdom I read somewhere, can't remember. So, if we want to deliver ~300KT, we need to test ~60-70KT device and if we want a 1MT capacity that means 200KT test. And all this must be an a deliverable package, so that...
by samuel
17 Sep 2009 17:14
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Can nuclear deterrence survive on a bluff?
Replies: 148
Views: 12030

Re: Can nuclear deterrence survive on a bluff?

The problem arose when that moratorium was spun into 123 and hardened into cast cement via Hyde -- the BJP did all they could to oppose it, but could not speak about how the bum was not ready, how could they, who would have believed them that they were not lying now to oppose congress. This was exa...
by samuel
17 Sep 2009 09:51
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Can nuclear deterrence survive on a bluff?
Replies: 148
Views: 12030

Re: Can nuclear deterrence survive on a bluff?

What disservice to the nation. -- negotiate a nuclear deal without a credible deterrent. MMS is directly responsible. -- pretend to "believe our scientists" -- base an entire defense posture on this bluff. ABV is responsible. They must be shittin now, what with China snipping. Say, when di...
by samuel
17 Sep 2009 09:39
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Can nuclear deterrence survive on a bluff?
Replies: 148
Views: 12030

Re: Can nuclear deterrence survive on a bluff?

And this is why BJP was in a bind? It knew there was no credible deterrent and without that there could not have been a deal, as deals are supposed to go? But it could not say anything because then...
by samuel
17 Sep 2009 09:36
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Can nuclear deterrence survive on a bluff?
Replies: 148
Views: 12030

Re: Can nuclear deterrence survive on a bluff?

So, how can one reasonably negotiate a nuclear deal without a credible deterrent? Were they just trying to find a graceful way to fold when the US came and told us it was going to help us become a power?
by samuel
17 Sep 2009 09:18
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Can nuclear deterrence survive on a bluff?
Replies: 148
Views: 12030

Re: Can nuclear deterrence survive on a bluff?

whatever the bluffing up was supposed to help us with won't happen because the bluff turned puff. Puff of course means no deterrence. bluffing down would've brought em down harder on us and is somewhat useless a strategy thus. So, nuclear deterrence cannot survive on a bluff. It needs to be precise,...
by samuel
17 Sep 2009 09:11
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 164601

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

And with a nutcase like china, ironically, that bluff goes to zit.
What are we going to lob at beijing now? tawang? and hope the us fleet comes to the bay this time for us?
by samuel
17 Sep 2009 08:38
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 164601

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

This factual analysis reveals India’s decade-long, grim predicament regarding the failed TN bomb and so our Credible Minimum Deterrent (CMD). No country having undertaken only two weapon related tests of which the core TN device failed, can claim to have a CMD. This is corroborated by fact that eve...
by samuel
17 Sep 2009 08:31
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 164601

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

First, after the TN test, its shaft remained totally undamaged: if the fusion stage had worked, the shaft would have been totally destroyed. Secondly, the A-frame sitting astride the mouth of the shaft, with winches to lower and raise personnel, materials and so on, also remained completely intact....
by samuel
16 Sep 2009 23:01
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 164601

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Yes, and I have been saying that since the no-clear debate: we got what we got and that's all we got. "Ain't nobody gonna do us no favors" back then, it was all about more electricity. It's looking electric alright.
by samuel
16 Sep 2009 22:55
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 164601

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

So this world of cheats out to deny us of our rightful mastery of TN weapons appears to be an organized mafia fight. Five guys meet in the park and pretty much run riot there. A sixth guy comes in and says he wants to be a part of the space too and they laugh at him. The sixth guy then says look if ...
by samuel
16 Sep 2009 10:20
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 164601

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

and we said this back when it was svraj and svdesh. but, couldn't cut mustard, ran to papa. its never really changed, why?
by samuel
16 Sep 2009 10:16
Forum: Trash Can Archive
Topic: India-China News and Discussion
Replies: 2386
Views: 219909

Re: India-China News and Discussions

it works out well...china helps us buy a shitty f-16in ready to fly and no match for 2015, and the us rakes the dough to buy cheap chinese goods and sell them some more xxx bonds, using the pramise of peace and security to hand us the shitty bitty oh and a few years of no pakistan worry.
by samuel
16 Sep 2009 09:57
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 164601

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

should India do a quick 100 ton test and extrapolate? we will feel good and this is cheap -- ordinary explosive can produce that much. We'll call it the special outer taper smear test of better engineering to scare obama, the chinese and the pakis a little. that's it! that's deterrence.
by samuel
16 Sep 2009 07:15
Forum: Military Issues & History Forum
Topic: Beam Weapons and Future of Deterrence
Replies: 74
Views: 19383

Re: Beam Weapons and Future of Deterrence

Lasers have indeed taken a remarkable leap. About 10 years ago, when we needed to do LIF & PIV type experiments, by god what a chore the whole thing was. Today, I get multiwatt lasers from laser glow dot com with amazing pattern generators on top of that. Before it was pulsed this and that, now ...
by samuel
16 Sep 2009 04:54
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 164601

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Actually we seem to have several versions. 1. TN is good and rest in simulation. 2. TN was actually better than advertised. 3. TN is not needed. I'd say the three most important things are a) Ability to delivery the "strategic" weapon to Beijing. b) Ability to deploy tactical weapons for l...
by samuel
16 Sep 2009 04:40
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 164601

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Yup, shrug it off and move on. We've (India) been here before. Whether we got the yield or not, we got what we got and we gotta get what we gotta get. So keep at it.
(Do we have enough to take on chipak?)
by samuel
16 Sep 2009 00:50
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Discussion on Jaswant Singh's book on Jinnah
Replies: 404
Views: 27924

Re: Discussion on Jaswant Singh's book on Jinnah

One of the things that happens is that we get very excited about new or otherwise interesting ideas but nothing pans. But that's not the problem. The problem is that when it does not pan, we go into a self-flagellation mode offering all sorts of apologies for things that did not happen. That's ok, b...
by samuel
14 Sep 2009 22:07
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 164601

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

That's true and it kinda shows in the nation's projects doesn't it? But a new generation will be able to take things much farther than before, I have that confidence.
by samuel
14 Sep 2009 21:41
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 164601

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Sometimes, I come across papers where I read them and think, that can't be true. I tell myself, well they published it, so it must be true. Let's start from that. And I work backwards from there and it takes a very long time to figure out that oh if that and that and that were true then this will wo...
by samuel
14 Sep 2009 19:40
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 164601

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

It is time for the government to set up an independent evaluation group, comprising scientists, experts and the armed forces, to assure themselves and the nation that the weapons systems constituting our nuclear deterrent are battleworthy. Then the armed forces must take ownership and be held to ac...
by samuel
14 Sep 2009 05:12
Forum: Trash Can Archive
Topic: India-China News and Discussion
Replies: 2386
Views: 219909

Re: India-China News and Discussions

Are there things we can do here and now? For example, could we: 1. Get access to satellite data such as SPOT, with updates and crowdsource the imagery for activity. This can be efficient and timely. 2. Monitor all chinese media for news and articles and catalog. That seems to already be happening. 3...
by samuel
12 Sep 2009 19:14
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 164601

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

To verify the claim that identifying the medium -- that is produce a seismic model of its response-- is an easy exercise, I will sample contemporary practice drawn from seismic reconstructions. There are many dimensions to this problem, I contend, that are to do with a) nonlinearity of the response ...
by samuel
12 Sep 2009 18:49
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 164601

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Of course anisotropy is just one problem and in fact it is misinformation to suggest that anisotropy is what causes the confusion. the confusion arises when both source and medium are not known and anisotropy increases the difficulty of estimating the medium. There are other problems, like arrogance...
by samuel
12 Sep 2009 09:53
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 164601

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

OK, let's instead of writing Y = A X, write using the transfer function X(w) H(w) = Y(w). They are really not different. Let's take a few statements: 1. All waves pass through -- no zeros -- well it's invertible then? If that's true then why is it not trivially reconstructible for any source destina...
by samuel
12 Sep 2009 08:43
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 164601

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Some basic info http://www.ehealthmd.com/library/ctscan/CTS_work.html As the scanner rotates, the detector takes numerous snapshots called "profiles." Typically, about 1,000 profiles are taken in one rotation. Each profile is analyzed by computer, and the full set of profiles from each rot...
by samuel
12 Sep 2009 08:28
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 164601

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Let me add a note to that. Even if we go the frequency route, which is natural when dealing with waves, the medium is anisotropic it absorbs waves in certain directions in certain ways and in other directions in other ways. Will a regular bomb produce the same kind of waves as their detonation? Is t...
by samuel
12 Sep 2009 08:14
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 164601

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Yes, damages are related to PDI -- and this is what is practice! The EXACT point is or rather now was -- just taking the hurricane intensity (oh its a 100Knot hurricane) and applying pdi does NOT tell you what the spatial distribution of damages is and certainly just taking some sparse measurements ...
by samuel
12 Sep 2009 07:51
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 164601

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Hold on to your horses! Power dissipation is used as an index of the damage due to hurricanes and it goes as the cube. The papers are to show: a) Power dissipation goes as the cubed of wind speed. b) Damages go as PDI. The losses have been measured and "calibrated" against wind speed. They...
by samuel
12 Sep 2009 07:13
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 164601

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

The paper cited is this and doesn't appear to be so much junk, but who knows, Nature might be slipping: Emanuel, K., 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686–688. This is the paper you need to read. It appeared in nature...Would you like to talk ...

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