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by samuel
08 Oct 2009 19:58
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Deterrence
Replies: 4729
Views: 370720

Re: Deterrence

I am very glad that we are starting to discuss salted bombs because that affects us in a way that few other options do. After setting them back 60 years with what we have, lets get ready to go back to Mohenjodaro ourselves. But here, let's take the choice of a 20KT x 100 arsenal laced with cobalt de...
by samuel
08 Oct 2009 19:33
Forum: Trash Can Archive
Topic: BR Forums Feedback
Replies: 1566
Views: 171025

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-3

What is with deleting posts by the way. How is truth/statement/evidence preserved this way especially if we keep going back to it many threads or months or years later. Isn't the whole idea here to keep going and sanitize the past, so a certain look and feel and view comes across?

S
by samuel
08 Oct 2009 03:11
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Deterrence
Replies: 4729
Views: 370720

Re: Deterrence

If nothing's gonna stop a mad guy, we had better have what it takes to stop him. If there are other ways to swing the deter flag, go for em, but get the bottom line straightened out, but at least don't shut it out and do the nehru all over again; come come, we will deter you with prep-boy talk and u...
by samuel
08 Oct 2009 02:52
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-3
Replies: 1343
Views: 121319

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-3

Bosslog, can we drop this maximum potential efficiency business and propose some numbers that are somewhat known. The Pu on Fat guy was approx 2/13.5 efficient. Ok that was way back then. But is it realistically possible to push like 30%? The whole 10Kg Pu 20KT examples on internet I think assumes ~...
by samuel
08 Oct 2009 02:43
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-3
Replies: 1343
Views: 121319

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-3

-- wait a second. i thought these Pu things don't come even close to 50% Something skipped here. -- (it'll pay better if you go talk to one of the oil companies...they'll tell you what methods they use in a black box and then you'll really think our guys hand out way too much information. they shoul...
by samuel
07 Oct 2009 22:57
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Deterrence
Replies: 4729
Views: 370720

Re: Deterrence

I am absolutely serious about Nehru. He said we will go up there and take em out, forward posturing. He came through alright, with nothing in tow. But I am glad pulling the Nehru is funny; if that was policy, we'd need a reality check for sure! It is useful to start with a what if and go backwards. ...
by samuel
07 Oct 2009 21:59
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Deterrence
Replies: 4729
Views: 370720

Re: Deterrence

Let's look at this argument that even a 10KT nuke against China and Pak (together) suffices as a deterrent. We will rehash things again stated a few pages ago, but never mind. It would be important to note here that we may assume about 100 devices ready to go at 10KT and, in return, about 100 MT dev...
by samuel
07 Oct 2009 19:08
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Deterrence
Replies: 4729
Views: 370720

Re: Deterrence

Suppose we went to China to initiate nuclear disarmament talks for Asia. What do you think the outcome of that will be?

S
by samuel
07 Oct 2009 18:43
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Deterrence
Replies: 4729
Views: 370720

Re: Deterrence

For a long time my argument for a more robust defense posture always hit a hesitation when I was confronted with the argument: what about our poor and disadvantaged, should we not be focusing on that. This happened during the nuclear deal too, but I am increasingly confident that the numbers don't r...
by samuel
07 Oct 2009 18:36
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Deterrence
Replies: 4729
Views: 370720

Re: Deterrence

There is no argument that our economy was in socialist tatters for a long time. Ascribing that to 74 probably has some value but there was a huge context by then. 71 had just happened, then there was 65, 62 and "Nehru." That was a long time coming. We did "step out" by 98 and tha...
by samuel
07 Oct 2009 18:19
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Deterrence
Replies: 4729
Views: 370720

Re: Deterrence

Abhiti, I think shiv really only means about a milli-gigaboom or 100 micro-gigaboom, because as far as I know it is a really huge stretch and a joke to go from ~10s of Kilotons to ~million kilotons. Gigaboom is just some arbitrary unit, I don't know the origins, but sounds nice. Like a gigabyte, I t...
by samuel
07 Oct 2009 09:28
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Deterrence
Replies: 4729
Views: 370720

Re: Deterrence

I don't know to what lengths scaling laws are valid and therefore I can't say if 45KT for S1+S2+S3 or S1 or some other combination thereof is significant. Does not seem to me that it is. From the deterrence point of view, we got nothing over 100KT (as per current wisdom), we have no TN, we have no M...
by samuel
07 Oct 2009 08:47
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Deterrence
Replies: 4729
Views: 370720

Re: Deterrence

Could the dhimmi rate of growth that India showed be instructive of the kind of technical and political ambiguity surrounding 98. Where we have such strong beliefs in the "hindu rate of growth" by AEC etc., why is the fizzle that far off the mark? A nuclear force, in order to act as a dete...
by samuel
07 Oct 2009 08:29
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-3
Replies: 1343
Views: 121319

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-3

I am wondering if in the regions encircled in red other than khetolai, if any structure cracks were seen. If anyone can point to that info. many thanks in advance. Further, I am wondering if anyone has access to say gravity or magnetometric data over this region (we are also looking through); we are...
by samuel
07 Oct 2009 02:42
Forum: Trash Can Archive
Topic: BR Forums Feedback
Replies: 1566
Views: 171025

Re: BR Forums Feedback

Thanks Rahul ji, it is nice to know that.
S
by samuel
07 Oct 2009 01:07
Forum: Trash Can Archive
Topic: BR Forums Feedback
Replies: 1566
Views: 171025

Re: BR Forums Feedback

Is there a way to have a person "switch on" their moderator tag (and thus not participate in the thread except as a moderator) and then "switch off" while participating ordinarily (and thus be a poster)? It may be somewhat symbolic, but a I feel a better arrangement. i realize th...
by samuel
07 Oct 2009 00:19
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Deterrence
Replies: 4729
Views: 370720

Re: Deterrence

I feel the discussion of deterrence is hampered or conditioned by these larger questions and cannot be viewed in isolation. What is the right vision for India? Actually to give a well known poster credit, he started with this, a mismatch between our idea of India and the reality thereof. In my unde...
by samuel
07 Oct 2009 00:02
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Deterrence
Replies: 4729
Views: 370720

Re: Deterrence

There is this idea that if we test to develop a better arsenal, then we will really be screwing ourselves economically by the world. In other words, the international community acts as a deterrent to developing a robust nuclear posture. It would like to freeze things fast, and insert India in a slot...
by samuel
06 Oct 2009 23:19
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Deterrence
Replies: 4729
Views: 370720

Re: Deterrence

There is a huge difference between what we think we can do and what we have. What does Pokhran tell you about what we can do (rattle khetolai) and what we have (doubts on yield)? Nothing above 100KT, per current wisdom. Not even sure a single 45KT device is working. No TN. No MIRV. FBF capability. A...
by samuel
06 Oct 2009 22:53
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Deterrence
Replies: 4729
Views: 370720

Re: Deterrence

As of now, we assume 100 odd 25KT, or 45KT in twos or threes. We don't FU. If we receive a "small" tactical wmd, we have to respond with "full force." But we don't have enough juice to stop the rebound and, with assumptions stated elsewhere on this thread, when that happens we wi...
by samuel
06 Oct 2009 16:56
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Deterrence
Replies: 4729
Views: 370720

Re: Deterrence

When I was a kid, I used to think that to win a war, the army will have to stand in a very long line and march one inch at a time, dishoom dishoom all the way till it covers the entire country. In this ju-jitsu, it is a slightly clever tactic to say that ahh, we need too many bombs to wipe out compl...
by samuel
06 Oct 2009 03:38
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Deterrence
Replies: 4729
Views: 370720

Re: Deterrence

Why not print out the soviet stats, too?
In 1991 Russia had 40,000 nuclear warheads.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia_and ... estruction
by samuel
06 Oct 2009 03:35
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Deterrence
Replies: 4729
Views: 370720

Re: Deterrence

We are afraid now because we don't have a sugar daddy. We were not so afraid then because there was a soviet daddy. and a geopolitical situation that kept china hemmed reasonably in, while it grew. Later after the cozying up with US, if china had moved south, the soviets would've freaked! If you rea...
by samuel
06 Oct 2009 03:25
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Deterrence
Replies: 4729
Views: 370720

Re: Deterrence

What really was the strategic policy then;
an implicit alignment with soviets with a public nonalignment face?
What is the strategic policy now --
we gotta start lining up with yanks without pissing the chinese off too much?

Otherwise, please educate. Happy to learn here or on some other thread.

S
by samuel
06 Oct 2009 03:19
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Deterrence
Replies: 4729
Views: 370720

Re: Deterrence

We are getting hockey pucked again, it seems like not much has changed since the brits left. While the soviets sugared us with peace and friendship, providing a pretty stable nuclear umbrella in cold war MADness (please correct), that's lifted. We have one smiley and a fizzle-sizzle shakti and nothi...
by samuel
06 Oct 2009 03:10
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Deterrence
Replies: 4729
Views: 370720

Re: Deterrence

So, is US the sugar daddy now?
Any estimate on how many 31 types are deployed?
by samuel
06 Oct 2009 03:04
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Deterrence
Replies: 4729
Views: 370720

Re: Deterrence

I think the notion that India had no deterrence at all in the cold-war world is a bit misleading.
We should look into what the relationship with the soviets was more closely there.

S
by samuel
06 Oct 2009 02:54
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Deterrence
Replies: 4729
Views: 370720

Re: Deterrence

Let's wait for the blowback Prem ji, on the forum I mean. There will be plenty of opposing views that will be useful to consider. But if someone is willing to put down a threat matrix and construct a risk table that would be a great first step before we come to decisions. I want to just emphasize th...
by samuel
06 Oct 2009 01:35
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Deterrence
Replies: 4729
Views: 370720

Re: Deterrence

Samuel Ji, Will Chinese have enough left over to lob over japan and "others" and Wont India require more to do ram nam sat Hai for Baki Backers living in Registan who deserve to partake in Baki destiny. I did not factor any of these but I think that if we step out beyond our Pak centric f...
by samuel
06 Oct 2009 01:15
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Deterrence
Replies: 4729
Views: 370720

Re: Deterrence

To get to some simple numbers (probably simplistic, but we can refine) Arsenal of 100 x 25KT weapons will allow us to target ~ 10 city-sized targets. Between China and Pak, that's about 5 each. Then we only got blanks. In return, about 400 x 1MT devices stare us along with a few KT type from west. E...
by samuel
06 Oct 2009 00:34
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Deterrence
Replies: 4729
Views: 370720

Re: Deterrence

OK, then, Ramana had at one point suggested monte-carlo experiments. I needed to get some package to write out the whole chain for sampling probabilities. Here is one "simulator" -- if anyone has used it (and saves me trouble to read the implementation), I'd appreciate. http://meyerweb.com...
by samuel
06 Oct 2009 00:07
Forum: Trash Can Archive
Topic: Indian Core: Ideas and descriptions-I
Replies: 462
Views: 28882

Re: Indian Core: Ideas and descriptions-I

Let's do it...is this forum hosted in Britain, the great? Do we need legal opinion here?
S
by samuel
05 Oct 2009 18:57
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Deterrence
Replies: 4729
Views: 370720

Re: Deterrence

It is true that keeping things fuzzy keeps things confused. But that confusion may be in our minds, and we don't know whether it is in the minds of China or Pak or P4. We can in fact incorporate that too. That is, what if the information was covertly detected, then what we need vs. what if it isn't....
by samuel
05 Oct 2009 07:51
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Deterrence
Replies: 4729
Views: 370720

Re: Deterrence

Humans are not really rational to the degree that one can have confidence that the decisions made by them are borne out of some system of logic. They do things, they reason, they justify. But operating rationally is not something we typically do. the most rational response to an attack is to hit bac...
by samuel
05 Oct 2009 07:08
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-3
Replies: 1343
Views: 121319

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-3

OK, so, if should we say we have X KT nukes for our own discussion here, what would X be? I say 25KT. Over 100KT does not seem to exist, and that makes a point I was trying to make. I've only heard >100KT here on this forum, based on either scaling arguments or that it would be "stupid" to...
by samuel
05 Oct 2009 03:17
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-3
Replies: 1343
Views: 121319

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-3

NRao, Can you categorically state that we have 100KT class operational nuclear weapons? If that is true, we have hope of hitting back. What about 200KT class? 300KT? Since no one seems to know, where does your confidence of the tonnage starts to fizzle, if I may ask? Call me a shmuck, but before thi...
by samuel
04 Oct 2009 22:50
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-3
Replies: 1343
Views: 121319

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-3

NRao, Yes, I am a) unconvinced 2 tests are sufficient for being confident of any kind of weapon. b) especially unconvinced that TN (not Fission and FBF in parts but a TN package) has been mastered, let alone proofed and further let alone operational. c) unconvinced that one cannot reveal the outcome...

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