Search found 274 matches

by ss_roy
13 Dec 2008 02:23
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Global Economy
Replies: 2341
Views: 478563

Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Forecaster: Negative Q4 GDP in China ISI's Ed Hyman is telling clients that he expects GDP growth in China at a 2% annual rate in Q3, and negative 1% in Q4 2008. This is far below most forecasts! Hyman also lowered his Q4 U.S. GDP forecast to a 6% decline. Last month Goldman slashed their Q4 GDP fo...
by ss_roy
12 Dec 2008 15:00
Forum: Strategic & Security Issues Archive
Topic: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown
Replies: 3894
Views: 894294

Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Arnab, You still don't get it.. you believe the world is deterministic (like almost all humans). You seem to believe that the future holds only a few sets of known possibilities, whose relative probability can be calculated and 'hedged'.Determinism works only if all of the properties of all the comp...
by ss_roy
12 Dec 2008 04:27
Forum: Strategic & Security Issues Archive
Topic: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown
Replies: 3894
Views: 894294

Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

The short answer is 1] Subsidies per se are not evil. Indeed, they are often required. However subsidizing something that is incredibly inefficient is a bad idea. Example- Subsidizing the development of a jet engine factory is not a bad idea. However if you cannot deliver an international quality je...
by ss_roy
12 Dec 2008 03:40
Forum: Strategic & Security Issues Archive
Topic: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown
Replies: 3894
Views: 894294

Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Ok, So tell me why are new biotechs in the USA are going bust at record rates (credit problems linked to direct/ indirect exposure to lehman brothers)? Why has funding for new startups in energy dropped? It is is not just lower energy prices as lehman also was directly/ indirectly responsible for VC...
by ss_roy
11 Dec 2008 13:10
Forum: Strategic & Security Issues Archive
Topic: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown
Replies: 3894
Views: 894294

Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Ramana, I am simply trying to get people out of this state of learned helplessness . I am trying to get them to think beyond their usual horizons. When faced with any big opportunity indians tend to- 1] Feel that they are not worthy. 2] Feel that they cannot do it. 3] Feel they have no right to do i...
by ss_roy
11 Dec 2008 12:45
Forum: Strategic & Security Issues Archive
Topic: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown
Replies: 3894
Views: 894294

Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Yes, I am aware of that. However you should know that- 1] The ideal solution for CDS and derivatives in general is disarming/ imploding derivatives simultaneously. While that would be the best course of action, it appears to be unlikely ( http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8979777c-c591-11dd-b516-000077b0765...
by ss_roy
11 Dec 2008 07:51
Forum: Terrorism Archive
Topic: Terror Attacks in Mumbai - IV
Replies: 2097
Views: 219246

Re: Terror Attacks in Mumbai - IV

I am sorry if this article is a repost. But this article has some peculiar unspoken implications. Mumbai Terror Group Trained American Jihadists ( http://blog.wired.com/defense/2008/12/let-usa.html ) By Noah Shachtman December 10, 2008 A growing chorus of intelligence officials in the U.S. and in so...
by ss_roy
11 Dec 2008 07:36
Forum: Strategic & Security Issues Archive
Topic: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown
Replies: 3894
Views: 894294

Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Consumption is good, because we have no option. I will explain why in some detail in a future post. Consumption is a scam- but it is a scam that is not as harmful as the options. Boss, I'm sorry - I do not understand what your argument is. Is consumption good? or is it a 'scam'? Yes and Yes. But on ...
by ss_roy
11 Dec 2008 07:22
Forum: Strategic & Security Issues Archive
Topic: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown
Replies: 3894
Views: 894294

Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

I could not resist taking a few more shots. I can also buy some expert to "prove" that you are an idiot. Does that make you an idiot? We have reports saying that barely a fifth of our college graduates are actually employable in industry. At least, they are honest. The west has screwed up ...
by ss_roy
11 Dec 2008 06:54
Forum: Strategic & Security Issues Archive
Topic: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown
Replies: 3894
Views: 894294

Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Well, that is partially true. However the real 800 pound gorilla in the room is a simple fact - mechanization reduces the number of people involved in production. The only way to sustain such a post-industrial society is to encourage meaningless consumption. I will write a much more detailed mini-ar...
by ss_roy
11 Dec 2008 06:43
Forum: Strategic & Security Issues Archive
Topic: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown
Replies: 3894
Views: 894294

Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

The increased consumption in the west over the last 30 years was largely based on scams. The people who ran those scams know that well. They also know that the only way for them to survive in the future is to create more consumers (non-western). If you can convince them that indians are prepared to ...
by ss_roy
11 Dec 2008 03:38
Forum: Trash Can Archive
Topic: Indian Space Program Discussion
Replies: 518
Views: 29647

Re: Indian Space Program Discussion

You can train any decent test pilot to operate a space capsule in under a year. The instrumentation layout is much simpler than an 80s era fighter plane (mig 23). The most important attributes for astronauts are 1] Ability to remain calm, composed and follow instructions. 2] Ability to learn new thi...
by ss_roy
11 Dec 2008 02:05
Forum: Trash Can Archive
Topic: Indian Space Program Discussion
Replies: 518
Views: 29647

Re: Indian Space Program Discussion

Do they really require 6-7 years to copy the soyuz orbiter? I mean, that thing is based on 70-era soviet technology. It is very rugged and reliable but hardly difficult to copy.

vavinash wrote:So is the ISRO orbital vehicle a redesigned soyuz?
by ss_roy
10 Dec 2008 13:38
Forum: Strategic & Security Issues Archive
Topic: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown
Replies: 3894
Views: 894294

Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

I am well aware of how those productivity enhancements were brought about and that is precisely what bothered me when I first saw it years ago. Genuine productivity enhancements such as use of IT, better management of supply chains, outsourcing or innovation were never the major drivers behind the '...
by ss_roy
10 Dec 2008 11:06
Forum: Strategic & Security Issues Archive
Topic: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown
Replies: 3894
Views: 894294

Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Well, countries with certain majority religion/culture/ethnic combinations are beyond hope. Even if those countries were sitting on, say 40% of the known oil reserves, they would always end up blowing it without any real lasting progress. Productivity can be improved by "changing" governme...
by ss_roy
10 Dec 2008 03:02
Forum: Strategic & Security Issues Archive
Topic: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown
Replies: 3894
Views: 894294

Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Exactly! This is a situation that is loaded in India's favor (demographic profile + new consumers). If we do not use this to our full advantage we have only ourselves to blame. Satya, The financial crisis has merged both the worlds. Earlier they were different and the West could look at the others w...
by ss_roy
09 Dec 2008 21:50
Forum: Strategic & Security Issues Archive
Topic: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown
Replies: 3894
Views: 894294

Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

I do not think that our highly interdependent world can function for a lost chaotic decade. If this goes on for more than 2 years, we are all in very deep trouble. The scenario I fear is that we'll see for the whole world the equivalent of Japan's lost decade in the 1990s, that we'll see a world of ...
by ss_roy
09 Dec 2008 07:21
Forum: Terrorism Archive
Topic: Terror Attacks in Mumbai - IV
Replies: 2097
Views: 219246

Re: Terror Attacks in Mumbai - IV

Have you ever been in rural parts of the US? Midwest and South-East? You are kidding! "Many" is a misleading word. It is a felony in many states to carry a weapon in your vehicle without a permit. Without a permit, The only way you can carry these weapons is to carry them unloaded, make su...
by ss_roy
09 Dec 2008 07:12
Forum: Strategic & Security Issues Archive
Topic: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown
Replies: 3894
Views: 894294

Re: Prespectives of the global economy meltdown

No, Sethji requires you to take over his business or at least manage his business. If you do not help Sethji, his household will start falling apart. India herrow, Unkil zerrow, Panda bhi zerrow :mrgreen: This is like a diseased, old beggar rejoicing the fact that the rich Sethji in "his" ...
by ss_roy
09 Dec 2008 07:09
Forum: Strategic & Security Issues Archive
Topic: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown
Replies: 3894
Views: 894294

Re: Prespectives of the global economy meltdown

No, the fundamental cause of the collapse is that the west has run out of new consumers/ workers (not enough kids to replace older folk). They have made promises to their retirees that they cannot fulfill. They leveraged themselves to obscene levels. They created an economy based on shuffling IOU no...
by ss_roy
09 Dec 2008 06:59
Forum: Strategic & Security Issues Archive
Topic: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown
Replies: 3894
Views: 894294

Re: Prespectives of the global economy meltdown

The west has adverse demographic profiles. Their system requires growth to survive and they cannot grow or survive for long without their newest consumers- YOU I do not believe ss_roy's post contains any insights that is worth a separate thread to discuss. All that happened is that the financial sy...
by ss_roy
09 Dec 2008 06:53
Forum: Trash Can Archive
Topic: Indian Space Program Discussion
Replies: 518
Views: 29647

Re: Indian Space Program Discussion

If you can build a reentry vehicle and a supersonic airplane cockpit- then yes! Have a look at the internals of gemini and soyuz- you will get my point.

vavinash wrote:Does India have the tech currently to built a human rated space pod? I was assuming they will only be done by the time GSLV_III is ready.
by ss_roy
09 Dec 2008 06:51
Forum: Trash Can Archive
Topic: Indian Space Program Discussion
Replies: 518
Views: 29647

Re: Indian Space Program Discussion

An interesting and relevant article. Remember that a GSLV Mk3 is at least equivalent to a Titan 3 (as I have previously written about). ____________________________ Right up to the end of the Gemini program, the Gemini spacecraft was considered by its contractor and certain factions within NASA as a...
by ss_roy
09 Dec 2008 06:43
Forum: Trash Can Archive
Topic: Indian Space Program Discussion
Replies: 518
Views: 29647

Re: Indian Space Program Discussion

To test technology integration and iron out safety issues before building larger orbiters. Do you think that 'gemini' and 'apollo' orbiters were not based on the lessons learned from 'mercury'? Someone has already made up a wiki about it: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISRO_OV I think ISRO is right in...
by ss_roy
09 Dec 2008 06:37
Forum: Terrorism Archive
Topic: Terror Attacks in Mumbai - IV
Replies: 2097
Views: 219246

Re: Terror Attacks in Mumbai - IV

Most states in the US do not require you to obtain any license to buy a semi-automatic gun (long gun or handgun). Over 45 states allow 'concealed carry' as long you have no criminal record (they cannot refuse you if you are "clean"). Most states allow you to carry your weapons openly on yo...
by ss_roy
09 Dec 2008 05:00
Forum: Terrorism Archive
Topic: Terror Attacks in Mumbai - IV
Replies: 2097
Views: 219246

Re: Terror Attacks in Mumbai - IV

A better idea- license for automatic weapons. Let people buy semi-automatic weapons with the same ease they can buy a TV. You might have noticed that terrorists have no problems with obtaining automatic weapons. I believe that the peculiar Indian obsession with non-violence and abhorrence towards we...
by ss_roy
09 Dec 2008 04:12
Forum: Terrorism Archive
Topic: Terror Attacks in Mumbai - IV
Replies: 2097
Views: 219246

Re: Terror Attacks in Mumbai - IV

I, for one, contest this british leftist elitist take on guns. The reality is that gun control is social control (in its ultimate form). Anyone who tells you that they alone know "what is good for you" because they are "better educated" without sound reasoning and scrutiny about ...
by ss_roy
09 Dec 2008 04:00
Forum: Terrorism Archive
Topic: Terror Attacks in Mumbai - IV
Replies: 2097
Views: 219246

Re: Terror Attacks in Mumbai - IV

Any person who believes in the inherent goodness and decency of elected officials (in any country) is an idiot. Remember, no politician can even contemplate doing the "right" thing unless they are scared about their continued existence. Whether the threat is a lynch mob or judicial censure...
by ss_roy
09 Dec 2008 03:51
Forum: Trash Can Archive
Topic: Indian Space Program Discussion
Replies: 518
Views: 29647

Re: Indian Space Program Discussion

It is still a rumor or maybe a false post. However I am concerned that some idiot in the government might actually like that idea. Why do indians feel incompetent and accept c**p? Just copy the gemini.. at least you are copying the most advanced expendable orbiter of the 1960s. Update as necessary. ...
by ss_roy
08 Dec 2008 12:49
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Global Economy
Replies: 2341
Views: 478563

Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

I thought so.. and you are right in that UK was the center of world finance for a very long time, but it lost a lot of control after WW2. It did gain some control back in the 1980s, but recent events have destroyed its position. I think if India played its cards right, it could seize some part of th...
by ss_roy
08 Dec 2008 12:41
Forum: Trash Can Archive
Topic: Indian Space Program Discussion
Replies: 518
Views: 29647

Re: Indian Space Program Discussion

It would make a cheap human orbital ferry. Think of it as a taxicab to a space station. You could use an unmanned capsule to deliver supplies and a manned capsule to deliver astronauts on a budget.
by ss_roy
08 Dec 2008 11:03
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Global Economy
Replies: 2341
Views: 478563

Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

I do not think anyone is at the steering wheel. This "thing" is beyond anyones control. UK is a shadow of its past. I am not sure that most of you comprehend the full extent of this self-inflicted disaster. If you do, I am sorry for repeating it. The facts- 1] The entire western banking sy...
by ss_roy
08 Dec 2008 10:57
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Global Economy
Replies: 2341
Views: 478563

Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Sure, however you should understand a few things- 1] Bill McBride (http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com) is a good general blog, but it is somewhat conservative in it's assessments. 2] Mish Shedlock (http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com) has made good predictions, but implementing his ideas woul...
by ss_roy
08 Dec 2008 10:11
Forum: Trash Can Archive
Topic: Indian Space Program Discussion
Replies: 518
Views: 29647

Re: Indian Space Program Discussion

ISRO seems to be bent on using the GLSV or GSLV-3 for human flight. However the PSLV-XL and PSLV-HP could easily launch a gemini class vehicle (4 tons) with 2 astronauts into LEO (200 km). So why not use it to launch an indian gemini orbiter within a year. The design could be later converted/ integr...
by ss_roy
04 Dec 2008 14:42
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Global Economy
Replies: 2341
Views: 478563

Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

I am not sure that most of you comprehend the full extent of this self-inflicted disaster. If you do, I am sorry for repeating it. The facts- 1] The entire western banking system is insolvent - not illiquid, just plain insolvent. Extensive governement intervention is the only reason banks are still ...
by ss_roy
02 Dec 2008 23:37
Forum: Terrorism Archive
Topic: Terror Attacks in Mumbai - IV
Replies: 2097
Views: 219246

Re: Terror Attacks in Mumbai - IV

A US soldier's family can buy a variety of dragonskin level 3 vests for less than 6 thousand USD. I have to say that it would be cheaper to supply soldiers/ police with such armor than pay compensation to their families.
by ss_roy
02 Dec 2008 12:28
Forum: Terrorism Archive
Topic: Terror Attacks in Mumbai - III
Replies: 1969
Views: 174078

Re: Terror Attacks in Mumbai - III

I think an updated Indian version of the M-1 Carbine (Not the M-1 Garand) would be a good inexpensive replacement for the currently issued, accurate but unwieldy, .303 rifles. We could chamber it for a cheaper/more widely used caliber like the .357 Magnum (revolver ammo). The single biggest advantag...
by ss_roy
02 Dec 2008 11:35
Forum: Terrorism Archive
Topic: Terror Attacks in Mumbai - III
Replies: 1969
Views: 174078

Re: Terror Attacks in Mumbai - III

Carfentanil http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carfentanil Moscow theater hostage crisis It is thought that in the 2002 Moscow theater hostage crisis, the Russian military made use of an aerosol form of either carfentanil or another similar drug such as 3-methylfentanyl to subdue Chechen hostage takers.[...
by ss_roy
27 Nov 2008 08:54
Forum: Terrorism Archive
Topic: Terror Attacks in Mumbai
Replies: 1912
Views: 141590

Re: Terror Attacks in Mumbai

I have lurked on this blog for years and I have started posting only recently, because of my interest in space exploration. {Thank you for your enlightening perspective, which I am now going to deny to the vast general public. If you have been lurking on this blog for many years, you must be aware o...
by ss_roy
26 Nov 2008 23:56
Forum: Mil-Tech Archive
Topic: Chandrayan-1 moon mission
Replies: 1807
Views: 345168

Re: Chandrayan-1 moon mission

A few points about Kaguya. 1. The Orbit is set at about 100 km above the lunar surface. 2. It is about 5 times heavier than CY-1. 3. It had about the same mission as CY-1, but it had many more instruments. 5. It cost 5-6 times what CY-1 did. 6. They chose to have a 10 m resolution camera + 2-3 HDTV ...

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