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by sudeepj
12 Mar 2020 08:12
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 6514
Views: 611141

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

FWIW, we are in the Seattle area and *may* have caught this late Jan. No way to confirm for sure. All adults in the household got sick (mild fever, body ache) for 3 days while children were completely unaffected (which is atypical). Also, one of my daughters is a young adult, and while she was affe...
by sudeepj
10 Mar 2020 21:26
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 6514
Views: 611141

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Sicanta wrote:All of Italy under quarantine now, 'except for work travel and emergency'.


Not under Quarantine, Italy is under a curfew/lockdown.
by sudeepj
10 Mar 2020 21:21
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 6514
Views: 611141

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

The Kerala cases are going to tell us if the temperature hypothesis is right or wrong. If the disease takes off in Kerala, its clearly wrong. If it doesnt, the hypothesis has greater support. So far, it looks like Kerala cases are being contained and not many transmissions are reported. https://gulf...
by sudeepj
09 Mar 2020 22:05
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 6514
Views: 611141

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

GOI should introduce a compulsory check for all international passengers who arrived in India. They should visit a local hospital after 5 days but before 7 days. Whether there are symptoms or not, they should visit a hospital to get checked by a qualified doctor. No excuses! The doctor can update a...
by sudeepj
09 Mar 2020 00:11
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 6514
Views: 611141

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Amber G - so what is best estimate of R0 and CFR for this thing? I am posting the values (see below) which IMO are the current best estimates .. but let me make a few comments: CFR: While discussion mortality risk , there is lot of discussion about CFR lot of misunderstanding. Case Fatality Rate (C...
by sudeepj
08 Mar 2020 10:29
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 6514
Views: 611141

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/07/us/c ... -home.html

Look at the picture.. Still no proper PPE! Where is the eye protection? damn! I think the US may be caught with its pants down by this.
by sudeepj
08 Mar 2020 10:27
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 6514
Views: 611141

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

https://www.news1.news/u/2020/03/coronavirus-intensive-care-doctors-in-lombardy-timely-actions-or-disastrous-health-calamity-the-access-priority-hypothesis-whoever-has-the-most-chance-of-survival-first.html Looks like ICU rationing is being considered in Italy. Are they going to ask the chinese squa...
by sudeepj
08 Mar 2020 09:53
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 6514
Views: 611141

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Here are some numbers from Italy: https://twitter.com/tancredipalmeri/status/1236339184652234753 The #coronavirus in Italy Day1 14cases/1dead D2 76/2 D3 153/3 D4 231/7 D5 374/12 D6 528/17 D7 821/21 D8 1128/29 D9 1577/34 D10 1835/52 D11 2263/79 D12 2706/107 D13 3296/148 D14 3916/197 D15 5061/233 The...
by sudeepj
08 Mar 2020 09:41
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 6514
Views: 611141

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Translation of an interview of an ICU doctor from Lombardi region in Italy. https://www.corriere.it/cronache/20_marzo_07/coronavirus-stiamo-creando-terapie-intensive-anche-corridoi-cb01190a-60be-11ea-8d61-438e0a276fc4.shtml?refresh_ce-cp Antonio Pesenti, 68, is the coordinator of the Lombardy Region...
by sudeepj
08 Mar 2020 09:34
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 6514
Views: 611141

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

^ That is certainly worrying. They're identifying folks with "symptoms consistent with Coronavirus." God knows whether they're testing them at all, or giving those poor souls the runaround between various health departments. In the meantime, they just go ahead and report all of them as CO...
by sudeepj
08 Mar 2020 05:33
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 6514
Views: 611141

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Here is a series of tweets from a Microbiology prof on twitter. https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1236344865924972545 1) I am getting a little annoyed at people responding to my tweets saying 'why do you even believe the Chinese numbers' and 'China was hiding this' etc. There is something w...
by sudeepj
08 Mar 2020 05:24
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 6514
Views: 611141

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

US doesnt have as much public transport, church going (on the coasts), cheek-by-jowl living as many Asian and European countries do, so just a hunch that it should not spread as fast here. On the flip side, lack of free basic medical care means people dont access healthcare proactively.. the morbidi...
by sudeepj
08 Mar 2020 03:34
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 6514
Views: 611141

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

sudeepj - short note to say thanks. (One study - Washington State case , I posted it here too ..) I have been looking up / analyzing this (doubling time period) too, over some time - the death data is more reliable. Short thing pops out - Italy, South Korea and Iran are now "out of control'&qu...
by sudeepj
08 Mar 2020 03:15
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 6514
Views: 611141

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Here are some numbers from Italy: https://twitter.com/tancredipalmeri/status/1236339184652234753 The #coronavirus in Italy Day1 14cases/1dead D2 76/2 D3 153/3 D4 231/7 D5 374/12 D6 528/17 D7 821/21 D8 1128/29 D9 1577/34 D10 1835/52 D11 2263/79 D12 2706/107 D13 3296/148 D14 3916/197 D15 5061/233 The...
by sudeepj
08 Mar 2020 01:23
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 6514
Views: 611141

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Here are some numbers from Italy: https://twitter.com/tancredipalmeri/status/1236339184652234753 The #coronavirus in Italy Day1 14cases/1dead D2 76/2 D3 153/3 D4 231/7 D5 374/12 D6 528/17 D7 821/21 D8 1128/29 D9 1577/34 D10 1835/52 D11 2263/79 D12 2706/107 D13 3296/148 D14 3916/197 D15 5061/233 The ...
by sudeepj
08 Mar 2020 01:10
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 6514
Views: 611141

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Considering the disease doubling rate of 7 days (reported variously), this could potentially overwhelm most health care systems in short order! Hopefully, the weather Gods save us soon! If you get a chance - Can you give link/details for doubling rate.. it will be interesting to see and monitor tha...
by sudeepj
07 Mar 2020 23:03
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 6514
Views: 611141

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

For perspective: South Korea performed 140,000 + tests up till now - (Sensitivity about 95%) While US about 1,500 (up from about 500 in a day or so) (Lot of problems and difficulties in initial stages - Sensitivity estimated *much* lower) Good News that there are indications that some states are ge...
by sudeepj
07 Mar 2020 22:39
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 6514
Views: 611141

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Here is my take on "hot weather" ... (Based on current data and traditional thinking). There has been quite a bit of data/study about spread of "corona viruses" and humidity and temperature .. There is some understanding (and mathematical models) on how water droplets (with viru...
by sudeepj
07 Mar 2020 22:37
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 6514
Views: 611141

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

As for India.. I am hopeful that the hot weather and lack of air conditioning saves us. Here is my take on "hot weather" ... (Based on current data and traditional thinking). There has been quite a bit of data/study about spread of "corona viruses" and humidity and temperature ....
by sudeepj
06 Mar 2020 21:49
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 6514
Views: 611141

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Situation in the US and Italy is indeed alarming. The US has been consistently a few weeks behind the curve. A patient who tested COVID+ was quarantined, but his wife was not and she visited all over town, till her public minded nephew ratted on her on SM. In either Kind or Snohomish county, a third...
by sudeepj
27 Feb 2020 10:38
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 6514
Views: 611141

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

AmberG Thanks for the statistics. Pukka right? Flu mortality is 0.1%. CoVid-19 @ 0.2% is double already. Except more fatal for over 70+ BTW a prof from Tufts n NPR was saying babies in China were recovering quite well. Seasonal Flu (not the pandemic flu..) mortality is not 0.1%, more like 0.01% in ...
by sudeepj
27 Feb 2020 07:48
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 6514
Views: 611141

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

There is no point in rehashing DTs behavior. He is the collective karma of American society and there is no escaping it. In the final calculation, it probably wont matter much who was 'in charge'.. Lets keep track of the virus, counter measures and what 'we' can do as individuals to protect ourselve...
by sudeepj
27 Feb 2020 00:30
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 6514
Views: 611141

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Speaking of that, skji, is there any work towards attracting the COVID towards a source of zapping energy, like mosquitos and flies towards lights? eCOLI is supposed to be zapped by 254nm LEDs but those are bacteria. Gamma Rays for virus? 254nm UV will definitely kill this virus. Virus are even mor...
by sudeepj
27 Feb 2020 00:25
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 6514
Views: 611141

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Not really. There was person to person transmission in MERS. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/mers/about/transmission.html A few cases may have happened, the point was that MERS transmission from human to human was pretty hard. Note the qualifiers in that CDC report.. '..few, reported cases..'. SARS...
by sudeepj
27 Feb 2020 00:22
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 6514
Views: 611141

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Romania reported its first #COVID19 case. The patient returned from Italy three weeks ago, which means #coronavirus was already spreading in Italy way before the current outbreak. The initial cases are reported as deaths.. Considering that these initial cases are getting excellent care because the ...
by sudeepj
27 Feb 2020 00:20
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 6514
Views: 611141

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

I think, it may be that patients in China cant access good healthcare because of the epidemic, while outside China, patients still have good ICU care.. Mechanical ventilators, Oxygen, even trans-corporeal oxygenation! (Heart lung machine). There are some reports of using plasma transfusions from pa...
by sudeepj
27 Feb 2020 00:17
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 6514
Views: 611141

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

AmberG, OK. in that fuzzy or rather sparse set, is Wuhan the epicenter only? Definitely. (But that is no surprise) . For USA, for example, everyone had a connection (either the traveller of the family member came from Wuhan) Data - with South Korea and Italy is growing pretty fast so the answer may...
by sudeepj
26 Feb 2020 05:20
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 6514
Views: 611141

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

sanjaykumar wrote:Solar radiation in the UV spectrum might have nucleic acid damaging effects. Virus might have a shorter half life on objects or in droplets. The ambient heat might be a factor. Wuhan temp 12 to 16. Chennai temp 26 to... no upper limit.


:rotfl: Thanks for the laugh! I needed it.
by sudeepj
26 Feb 2020 04:28
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 6514
Views: 611141

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

I don't know why Indians are still resistant to spread and tragic effect of this virus. Despite first foreigner to be infected was an Indian origin school teacher inChina. It has even killed italian origin people and Iranian people. Other than that most of the dead are asian origin people. Leaving ...
by sudeepj
26 Feb 2020 03:58
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 6514
Views: 611141

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Some interesting graphs/analysis I have not seen till recently .. .. Calculating CFR against time lag. (That is finding the death rate after 4 days, 8 days, 15 days after first symptoms and seeing the pattern and estimate limiting value). .. [b]The values (from preliminary look) are quite different...
by sudeepj
25 Feb 2020 00:03
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 6514
Views: 611141

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Numbers out of Singapore are most encouraging! No new infections reported today! https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/coronavirus-no-new-cases-in-singapore-on-sunday-total-stays-at-89-while-two-are SINGAPORE - There are no new cases of the coronavirus disease, said the Health Ministry (MOH)...
by sudeepj
23 Feb 2020 09:42
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 6514
Views: 611141

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

BTW, for all those who have all the data at their fingertips etc etc: See what happens if you use the simple fact that death is time-lagged 14 days or more from infection, even Case detection. Preliminary answer: Death rate was 128% of Reported Cases. IOW, many were just found dead, others died ver...
by sudeepj
23 Feb 2020 06:14
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 6514
Views: 611141

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Should we not open a thread about precautions Indian Govt can take or preparation it can make, without breaking the Bank?? Okay, here is my take: - Wash your hands, as they recommend. Single most effective way in our control. - If you have not, get Flu Vaccine. There are cases of H1N1 this year and...
by sudeepj
23 Feb 2020 02:17
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 6514
Views: 611141

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

About these conspiracy theories - some comments. Many leaders and recognized experts are quite worried about the harm this misinformation and fake news is causing. Many, who generally keep quiet, have taken to media (and also social media) to debunk a rumor being circulated that the coronavirus is ...
by sudeepj
22 Feb 2020 23:33
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 6514
Views: 611141

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Per a NYT article, it seems like Iran may be the new vector for Coronavirus. Speculation is that, there are plenty of Chinese workers near Iranian city of Qom. Perhaps to show sideness with Chinese, Iranian officials never restricted movement from China. The first Coronavirus case in Lebanon is lin...
by sudeepj
22 Feb 2020 06:13
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 6514
Views: 611141

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Perhaps someone should plot # of reported cases vs. time, and # of reported deaths vs. time. May show that as time progresses, the # of deaths per reported case falls to nothing, while # of cases jumps, because ppl learn to diagnose. I don't remember this level of panic associated with H1N1, to mat...
by sudeepj
22 Feb 2020 01:41
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 6514
Views: 611141

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

From See Dee See: 2009 (H1N1pdm09) pandemic resulted in 60.8 million illnesses, 274,304 hospitalizations and 12,469 deaths in the U.S. alone " between April 12, 2009 and April 10, 2010 . Since the (H1N1)pdm09 virus was very different from circulating H1N1 viruses, vaccination with seasonal flu...
by sudeepj
22 Feb 2020 00:31
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 6514
Views: 611141

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Should we not open a thread about precautions Indian Govt can take or preparation it can make, without breaking the Bank? Are we sitting idle & smug? Can nCV catch up with India? Will warm weather or use of spices in food protect us? use of spices -- this is a new high for this thread. pakis ar...
by sudeepj
21 Feb 2020 00:09
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 6514
Views: 611141

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

^^ But exactly what-2-do? Other than liberally consuming C2H5OH I don't know anything to do. If there is nothing-2-do, prepare adequate cremation facilities. Even now, a publicity campaign to get people to wash their hands, practice good sneeze/cough hygiene, get adequate sunlight/vitamin D, rest.....
by sudeepj
20 Feb 2020 23:16
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 6514
Views: 611141

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Quarantine and lockdown in Iran due to #coronavirus. The Iranian city of Qom is shutting down, roads, schools and universities following the deaths of two people from the COVID19 infection. Two dead mean around 100 - 200 infections at least, given the fatality rate of 1 - 2%, higher in later stages...

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