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by RoyG
25 May 2018 04:56
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Deterrence
Replies: 4691
Views: 334030

Re: Deterrence

@haridas: Why is there no way to break out of the `self imposed moratorium' ? All we lose is the nuclear deal. Russia will continue supplying us nuclear plants, given that it itself is under sanctions. Full scale sanctioning of such a large economy is too disruptive for the world at large. Didnt ha...
by RoyG
25 May 2018 03:51
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Deterrence
Replies: 4691
Views: 334030

Re: Deterrence

RoyG, I think a large yield FBF should also have been proofed in POKII and not rely on the TN only. But they could be shaft/tunnel challenged. This does not jive with the supposed frugality of RC when he did not want to test the second TN on May13 per Telegraph or circa 1998. The MND was a combined...
by RoyG
25 May 2018 03:48
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Deterrence
Replies: 4691
Views: 334030

Re: Deterrence

MIRV allows you to overcome ABM defenses and hit multiple targets over broad distances. What you are referring to is MRV which are like buckshot citybusters. Nobody invests in this technology b/c of improved CEP. The only missile that I know that still does linear release in orbit is ss-18. Anythin...
by RoyG
24 May 2018 20:34
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Deterrence
Replies: 4691
Views: 334030

Re: Deterrence

RoyG ji, it's not as simplistic as you say. Not wothstanding Chidambaram, Dr. Kakodkar gave his note to NSA saying we have to shortly conduct next round of test (to proof test rectified TN design). But 1998 was to remain the only window India got to test nukes. As he himself says in that interview,...
by RoyG
24 May 2018 20:14
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Deterrence
Replies: 4691
Views: 334030

Re: Deterrence

At the end of the day nobody is going to risk even one nuke going off in a major industrial/financial/capital center. Just one 50-300kt is devastating. Now imagine all of them being hit. Why would any country risk it? Whether you have 20 MT or 50 kt, country will cease to exist in a full fledged nu...
by RoyG
24 May 2018 06:05
Forum: Trash Can Archive
Topic: Indian Missiles News & Discussions - May 2017
Replies: 5116
Views: 1073840

Re: Indian Missiles News and Discussions - May 2017

ramana wrote:In command guidance the flaw is if an ARM takes out the radar then your missile becomes a dud.
There are two versions of the changed Akash : Akash Upgrade/Refurbished and NG.
NG will have dual seeker.


Very hard to jam command guidance tho.
by RoyG
24 May 2018 06:02
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Deterrence
Replies: 4691
Views: 334030

Re: Deterrence

You can take this message to the bank. The SFC does not have confidence in our TN arsenal. Bulls eye !! Deterrence is in the eye of the beholder, and eye only sees visible proof in explicit form. LIF etc etc is for the nerds not warriors, on either side of the border. One SFC very senior afsar (man...
by RoyG
23 May 2018 08:33
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Deterrence
Replies: 4691
Views: 334030

Re: Deterrence

Anyone advocating anything > 300 kt has lost their mind. BK needs to chill with the megaton language. You have to read the prescriptions in context and in view of the timeframes being referred to. 1. To my knowledge, BK has used the megaton language in terms of proven, tested yields to characterize...
by RoyG
23 May 2018 00:28
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Deterrence
Replies: 4691
Views: 334030

Re: Deterrence

Shiv ji: What you think of Karnad and his knowledge is entirely your prerogative. If you choose to disregard him due to his supposed technical knowledge and treat his policy views as rhetoric, even those are entirely up to you. FWIW: You may not have a high view of his views on the matter but there...
by RoyG
21 May 2018 09:41
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011
Replies: 4307
Views: 216610

Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

The Western and Russian reactor builders are starved for orders. Russia currently has contracts to build 34 reactors in 13 countries, with an estimated total value of $300 billion. When nuclear fuel supplies and technical cooperation are included, Russia’s state-run Rosatom State Atomic Energy Corp...
by RoyG
21 May 2018 07:03
Forum: Military Issues & History Forum
Topic: Military Acquisitions, Partnerships & Developments
Replies: 2804
Views: 433343

Re: Military Acquisitions, Partnerships & Developments

The US is testing waters as to how India will bend to some stupid American rule ., its a bluff. Someone needs to have a hard talk with the yanks "whats with your boss saying buy more American while you are pushing sanctions ?" Anyway let that be a good lesson to push for indigenization lo...
by RoyG
21 May 2018 06:58
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011
Replies: 4307
Views: 216610

Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

Also to keep the perspective on Nuclear Energy Trend .. good idea to look at the whole picture.. IAEA as good data (PRIS) for example... Check that out... for example after 2011 down.. total capacity or energy produced is pre 2011 level -- or getting to that... https://www.iaea.org/PRIS/TempChartIm...
by RoyG
19 May 2018 01:51
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Deterrence
Replies: 4691
Views: 334030

Re: Deterrence

I don't think our nuclear industry has a bright future. It will only comprise a small portion of the energy mix. Renewables and hydro will increase substantially and eat into the coal share. We should begin seriously investing in SILEX, reprocessing, battery tech, etc. Only 6 commercial breeders 50...
by RoyG
18 May 2018 21:39
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Out-of-India - From Theory to Truth: Part 2
Replies: 5143
Views: 394573

Re: Out-of-India - From Theory to Truth: Part 2

On Twitter, manastaramgini: Indo-Aryans: If we go by mainstream indological models the RV should have been composed in the Panjab no earlier than ~2000-1900 BCE - stretching things to the limit butm more like ~1700 BCE \pm 100 yrs. There are some serious problems with this which have been overlooke...
by RoyG
18 May 2018 19:19
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Deterrence
Replies: 4691
Views: 334030

Re: Deterrence

I don't think our nuclear industry has a bright future. It will only comprise a small portion of the energy mix. Renewables and hydro will increase substantially and eat into the coal share. We should begin seriously investing in SILEX, reprocessing, battery tech, etc. Only 6 commercial breeders 500...
by RoyG
18 May 2018 11:31
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Deterrence
Replies: 4691
Views: 334030

Re: Deterrence

BK needs to chill with the megaton language. You mean mega tonne language :D 8) The B61-12 is 50kt and will be carried by F35. With accurate targeting the days of > 300 kt are over. Trend is toward smaller more reliable bombs. I think NSG is being opposed by China b/c we'll be able to boost our rep...
by RoyG
18 May 2018 11:01
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Deterrence
Replies: 4691
Views: 334030

Re: Deterrence

Shiv, Came across this: https://books.google.com/books?id=rOq4XV94wLsC&pg=PA321&lpg=PA321&dq=50+kt+deterrence&source=bl&ots=nNx3ASjH-l&sig=eD-t7t35s0RZfSi738qLHhsPD8I&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiGveT6l47bAhWL7IMKHSJEA2MQ6AEIUDAF#v=onepage&q=50%20kt%20deterrence&...
by RoyG
17 May 2018 08:43
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Deterrence
Replies: 4691
Views: 334030

Re: Deterrence

Shiv ji: A couple of comments. The paper below estimates a yield of up to 10 KT within that 30 CM frame, based on the W-33 design. Since much of this miniaturization needs advanced designs, which requires testing to be credible, we can probably discount the sophistication of Pakistani TNW and IMO, ...
by RoyG
12 May 2018 02:56
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Out-of-India - From Theory to Truth: Part 2
Replies: 5143
Views: 394573

Re: Out-of-India - From Theory to Truth: Part 2

Earliest evidence of Indus scipt is dated to around ~3300 BC. Now if it is proven that it is Sanskrit than written IE would predate Anatolian script by roughly 800 years. Everything hinges on decipherment of the script. I have a feeling it will be deciphered especially with more digging happening at...
by RoyG
12 May 2018 02:30
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Out-of-India - From Theory to Truth: Part 2
Replies: 5143
Views: 394573

Re: Out-of-India - From Theory to Truth: Part 2

Has this been paper been linked here? The first horse herders and the impact of early Bronze Age steppe expansions into Asia Abstract The Yamnaya expansions from the western steppe into Europe and Asia during the Early Bronze Age (~3000 BCE) are believed to have brought with them Indo-European lang...
by RoyG
12 May 2018 00:36
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Iran News and Discussions
Replies: 3055
Views: 240507

Re: Iran News and Discussions

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/france-europe-not-us-vassal-iran-nuclear-deal-donald-trump-germany-sanctions/ May 11, 2018, 9:02 AM France: Europe isn't U.S. "vassal," should trade with Iran PARIS -- France's finance minister says European countries should push back harder against the Trump ...
by RoyG
11 May 2018 21:20
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Out-of-India - From Theory to Truth: Part 2
Replies: 5143
Views: 394573

Re: Out-of-India - From Theory to Truth: Part 2

^^^ Yes, but it is like nukes, missiles and other military technology. Your civilization will not survive unless you have at least parity in these. We need to play the history game without letting history infect us -- already hard to do because so many political disputes in India today are no longe...
by RoyG
11 May 2018 19:32
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Out-of-India - From Theory to Truth: Part 2
Replies: 5143
Views: 394573

Re: Out-of-India - From Theory to Truth: Part 2

I see Western academia on a losing wicket in the long term. I worry about certain aspects of that - for example I admire the advances in aerodynamics, materials and engineering that have come from the west and would hate to see all that slide into the slow degeneration that I see creeping over west...
by RoyG
11 May 2018 09:40
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Out-of-India - From Theory to Truth: Part 2
Replies: 5143
Views: 394573

Re: Out-of-India - From Theory to Truth: Part 2

Whatever, once its out there, its out there. It's all crashing down. They thought they had the last laugh. IMO, its just getting started. Once you separate the linguistics from the genetics, everything begins to make more sense. RoyG The very fact that they can blithely claim associations (causatio...
by RoyG
11 May 2018 09:20
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Out-of-India - From Theory to Truth: Part 2
Replies: 5143
Views: 394573

Re: Out-of-India - From Theory to Truth: Part 2

It's better all of this is open source. Allows all the ideas presented to undergo a far more rigorous 'peer review'
by RoyG
11 May 2018 09:16
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Out-of-India - From Theory to Truth: Part 2
Replies: 5143
Views: 394573

Re: Out-of-India - From Theory to Truth: Part 2

Gandharva ji one humble request. I am honoured that you have, in the past, tweeted my observations on your Twitter timeline. I would, however, ask you not to do that anymore. This is an information war. We need to coordinate our efforts at least as carefully as the enemy does... because they certai...
by RoyG
11 May 2018 08:07
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Out-of-India - From Theory to Truth: Part 2
Replies: 5143
Views: 394573

Re: Out-of-India - From Theory to Truth: Part 2

shiv wrote:Good news. Vagheesh has blocked me on Twitter. The IE reference is fake but if he removes that steppe-IE ref his paper is destroyed. To that extent I am a mortal enemy of his paper :rotfl:

Good


Which reference?
by RoyG
11 May 2018 08:07
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Out-of-India - From Theory to Truth: Part 2
Replies: 5143
Views: 394573

Re: Out-of-India - From Theory to Truth: Part 2

Yeah, solid rebuttal :mrgreen: "You don't understand the genetics, therefore I am right". Not a circular argument at all. :P Again, I have to wonder why you guys think it's worthwhile engaging these sepoys and clowns on Twitter. I agree, not worth disputing them, but I just posted excerpt...
by RoyG
05 May 2018 07:38
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Out-of-India - From Theory to Truth: Part 2
Replies: 5143
Views: 394573

Re: Out-of-India - From Theory to Truth: Part 2

Are you saying that on an average, a son or daughter is born in 28th year of woman in the last 40k years? A woman has N children. The average of age difference between the children and the woman is taken, and then averaged over all the women in population. That is the definition of "generation...
by RoyG
05 May 2018 03:36
Forum: Military Issues & History Forum
Topic: Military Acquisitions, Partnerships & Developments
Replies: 2804
Views: 433343

Re: Military Acquisitions, Partnerships & Developments

Since it is May, I just wanted to jog memories a little on the 20th anniversary of the event that changed the game for India: Shakthi I & II. Remember how "the world was coming to an end", with threats of wholesale sanctions etc? See where we are now. We still occupy a very poor posit...
by RoyG
30 Apr 2018 06:13
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Out-of-India - From Theory to Truth: Part 2
Replies: 5143
Views: 394573

Re: Out-of-India - From Theory to Truth: Part 2

... point out any resources that provides some insights (and any resources) into the origins and evolution of numeral system in Brahmi/Nagari scripts? Chanakya garu, Brahmi Script: It is very easy to understand Brahmi if you know any Indian script thoroughly/knowledge of Dava Nagara or Nandi Nagari...
by RoyG
30 Apr 2018 03:57
Forum: Military Issues & History Forum
Topic: Operational Art or War Doctrine
Replies: 48
Views: 6531

Re: Operational Art or War Doctrine

Shiv, Thanks for posting as even UK got constrained by American art of war. Something for India to ponder with all those four and five letter agreements US wants to push. This is a problem because, Desportes insists, numbers matter and most conflicts require controlling space rather than simply loc...
by RoyG
28 Apr 2018 11:36
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Out-of-India - From Theory to Truth: Part 2
Replies: 5143
Views: 394573

Re: Out-of-India - From Theory to Truth: Part 2

https://qph.fs.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-a7cfc269fbf495b5e33246d4849b739f-c Pointed out by Shiv sometime back - only transitional Brahmi-Indus script in existence today. First 3 letters are from Brahmi and the rest are from Indus (1528 BC using thermoluminescence dating) 1528 BC would place it sometim...
by RoyG
28 Apr 2018 04:43
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Out-of-India - From Theory to Truth: Part 2
Replies: 5143
Views: 394573

Re: Out-of-India - From Theory to Truth: Part 2

SBajwa wrote:Cheetah and Tiger are found in the one and the only country INDIA.. There is no other country in the world where you can find Cheetah and Tiger! that proves that Cheetahs and/or tigers in Africa are of Indian origin!

This might be wrong! but I got this point from somewhere! just sharing


No.
by RoyG
28 Apr 2018 01:11
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Out-of-India - From Theory to Truth: Part 2
Replies: 5143
Views: 394573

Re: Out-of-India - From Theory to Truth: Part 2

ramana wrote:Guys Vagheesh et al are sincere mentees. its their mentors like Witzel who have proven track record of bias.


Its an unfortunate situation. I respect him. Hopefully he can look over the evidence and see what we see.
by RoyG
28 Apr 2018 00:39
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Out-of-India - From Theory to Truth: Part 2
Replies: 5143
Views: 394573

Re: Out-of-India - From Theory to Truth: Part 2

Defense of David Anthony is amusing in the link. Carlos in comments claims that he quoted, but doesn't state where the original came from. And then proceeds to run with it. They just can't admit that such things are simply bullsh*t. Such is the idiocy.
by RoyG
27 Apr 2018 23:49
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Out-of-India - From Theory to Truth: Part 2
Replies: 5143
Views: 394573

Re: Out-of-India - From Theory to Truth: Part 2

Anshuman, We shouldn't be bothered about the non-scientific outcome of the results for two reasons. One everybody is an immigrant at certain point if you go back in time sufficiently. The Europeans are a mixture of native hunter gatherers (who at some point were also intruders to the region), middl...
by RoyG
27 Apr 2018 23:28
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Out-of-India - From Theory to Truth: Part 2
Replies: 5143
Views: 394573

Re: Out-of-India - From Theory to Truth: Part 2

There is a larger scale DNA study of Rakhigarhi going on in CCMB, Hyderabad and collaborators. In science absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. The Rai study if true just says that in that sample that is what they found. Although I am not sure whether Iran farmer is an artificial construc...
by RoyG
27 Apr 2018 19:12
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Out-of-India - From Theory to Truth: Part 2
Replies: 5143
Views: 394573

Re: Out-of-India - From Theory to Truth: Part 2

There are 2 main approaches as I see it 1) Shiv's approach, which argues that genetics does not mean language. Sanskrit is likely several thousand years old. It or its predecessor was spread over large parts of Iran. And it likely could have spread to Europe and Steppes from there 2) We look into w...
by RoyG
27 Apr 2018 18:54
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Out-of-India - From Theory to Truth: Part 2
Replies: 5143
Views: 394573

Re: Out-of-India - From Theory to Truth: Part 2

Agree with Shiv here. One minor setback and we get into a collective rhona-dhona mode!! We must keep plugging away and fighting the good fight. We have to build our civilizational narrative and brush aside anyone who gets in the way. OIT is not dead just because a Hartosh Bal or a Niraj Rai thinks ...

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