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by Raj Malhotra
25 Sep 2009 19:12
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 150538

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Hence my conclusion, till refuted. BARC tested a 500kt to 1MT TN as S1 which failed and produced only 25kt. I am not if you had the time to read through the BR article that was referred to you by Shiv (when you made a similar post - previous to this one). What I am pretty sure of is that a 500 Kt d...
by Raj Malhotra
25 Sep 2009 19:10
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 150538

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

>>>I think Santhanam left 3 clues (pieces of info) in his paper. The first was that fission bomb was 25kt which has been confirmed by Santhanam now. Why do you keep harping on this point, when RC & AK had clearly said their reading is that it is 12-15 KT? Is it that even when they say a lower y...
by Raj Malhotra
25 Sep 2009 19:08
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 150538

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Raj Malhotra, I disagree with your conclusions. I do not think the evidence supports the assertions made. Regarding simulations it depends on how you go about it - in India simulations were validated by tests. In the US things were the other way around. Again - please separate the need to test more...
by Raj Malhotra
25 Sep 2009 19:05
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 150538

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Another Red Herring used apart from damage to village is that computer simulation has improved therefore there is no need for tests. Kindly note that basic core design of "light" TN was perfect in 1960's and even thereafter hundreds of tests were conducted to validate weapon design and sto...
by Raj Malhotra
25 Sep 2009 18:39
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 150538

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

As more information has become available, I will again update and reproduce my post:- I think Santhanam left 3 clues (pieces of info) in his paper. The first was that fission bomb was 25kt which has been confirmed by Santhanam now. The second clue was about the designed yield of TN which I am trying...
by Raj Malhotra
24 Sep 2009 21:55
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 150538

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

You kidding NRao? What about the 230m? I JUST checked - page 36 of THIS thread, where I responded to your (later edited) post. I clearly mention: 52 vs. 67. I am trying to verify the calc in Sunder's article, I am getting slight deviations, so I was taking a harder look - when I went back to verify...
by Raj Malhotra
24 Sep 2009 21:51
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 150538

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

As more information has become available, I will again update and reproduce my post:- I think Santhanam left 3 clues in his paper. The first was that fission bomb was 25kt which lot of people are coming around to and has been confirmed by Arun_S from Sanathanam. The second clue was about the designe...
by Raj Malhotra
24 Sep 2009 21:51
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 150538

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

shiv wrote:
Raj Malhotra wrote:
6. My take is that 230m shaft in “pink granite hard rock” could take a 500kt-1MT TN explosion.


Malhotraji have you read this?

http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/MONITOR/I ... crater.pdf


yes
by Raj Malhotra
24 Sep 2009 14:27
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation
Replies: 495
Views: 45941

Re: Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation

SSridhar wrote:Folks, where is the link to that 4-page letter from AQK to wife Henny ? Can anybody post it please ? If it is not available on the web, can somebody photocopy it (as perfectly as the great AQK) and upload it somewhere for easy access to this SDRE kafir ? TIA.



Come on BRites show some sport!!!!
by Raj Malhotra
24 Sep 2009 14:11
Forum: Trash Can Archive
Topic: LCA news and discussion
Replies: 2899
Views: 747560

Re: LCA news and discussion

NAVAL LCA using G-404IN20 can be used as trainers if they are 2 seaters even if they are underpowered. I think that after first 20, the IAF has also ordered next 12 as two seaters to use as trainers. But HAL and ADA are getting slower by the day with no trance of P-4/5 or LSP-3-5
by Raj Malhotra
24 Sep 2009 14:09
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 150538

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Samuel and Raj Malhotra, Another indirect method is from the 3-D simulation of POK I paper in Current Science. It says that the cavity (not crater is 30m-page 6 of the pdf) for value of 12kt in shale. From this we can compute the expected cavity radius for the ~ 43 kt and adjust for hardness of &qu...
by Raj Malhotra
23 Sep 2009 22:00
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 150538

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

So if an expected crater radius of 72m and DOB of 230 m is for what yield? K Santhanam gives the crater radius for the S-2 in his op-eds. This is the multi-million dollar question , which i think will reveal the difference between three yields of S-1 "design yield" vs "claimed yield ...
by Raj Malhotra
23 Sep 2009 19:26
Forum: Trash Can Archive
Topic: LCA news and discussion
Replies: 2899
Views: 747560

Re: LCA news and discussion

I wonder whether 6 Naval LCA will be single seat or twin seater?
by Raj Malhotra
23 Sep 2009 11:39
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 150538

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Thanks. Two things: So if an expected crater radius of 72m and DOB of 230 m is for what yield? K Santhanam gives the crater radius for the S-2 in his op-eds. This is the multi-million dollar question , which i think will reveal the difference between three yields of S-1 "design yield" vs ...
by Raj Malhotra
22 Sep 2009 13:25
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 150538

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

As I got confirmed from Arun_S around 2 weeks ago on my email since I was not a member at the time that 5 warheads of 20kt will cause the same damage as a 200kt warhead. Now since 20kt. FISSION warhead will weigh 800 kg. and 200kt. TN weapon will be around 350 kg. (Would love it if somebody can con...
by Raj Malhotra
22 Sep 2009 13:22
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 150538

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

So the data that is added from above is: 1. the TN device had a yield of 20-25 kilotons and not 45 kilotons (I.e. same yield as the S2 Pure Fission warhead) 2. The primary FBF trigger of the TN worked as desired 3. The S1 Secondary fusion that completely failed to ignite should have produced 25 kT ...
by Raj Malhotra
22 Sep 2009 13:19
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 150538

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

It is almost as if the BJP was waiting for the test to be over so it could declare it a success and sign the CTBT. In fact after the May 11 tests the NDA government declared it was ready to consider adhering to “some of the undertakings of the CTBT” soon. Ten days later it declared unilateral morat...
by Raj Malhotra
21 Sep 2009 21:30
Forum: Military Issues & History Forum
Topic: Small Arms Thread
Replies: 4637
Views: 808392

Re: Small Arms Thread

OFB makes a robust but old design which needs to be updated. We had around 20 years to do so but imports are always better
by Raj Malhotra
21 Sep 2009 17:58
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 150538

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

It seems that Sanathanam has given a TV interview to deal with MKN-NSA points. Can't seem to find it by channel surfing, only Tej TV has some reference to it
by Raj Malhotra
21 Sep 2009 17:55
Forum: Trash Can Archive
Topic: LCA news and discussion
Replies: 2899
Views: 747560

Re: LCA news and discussion

Did somebody notice the side opening panels on LCA engine intakes?
by Raj Malhotra
21 Sep 2009 17:29
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: The TERROR TRADER: AQ Khan blows the whistle on Pakistan
Replies: 46
Views: 10662

Re: The TERROR TRADER: AQ Khan blows the whistle on Pakistan

Has the full text of AQ Khan letter been re-produced anywhere? Also gift of 50kg enriched uranium from china to pakistan would mean that Pak centrifuge technology was not working enough to produce "weapon level" enriched uranium. would 50kg (weapon?) level enriched uranium, translates to 6...
by Raj Malhotra
21 Sep 2009 12:30
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 150538

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Arun_S wrote:Regarding 25 kT pure fission.

Email reply three days ago from K.Santhanam reconfirmed:
The fission bomb of May 98 had an estimated yield of 20 - 25 kT. No boosting.



If you are in contact with him, you need to tell him to re-write his article (op-ed) as it is confusing.
by Raj Malhotra
21 Sep 2009 11:58
Forum: Trash Can Archive
Topic: LCA news and discussion
Replies: 2899
Views: 747560

Re: LCA news and discussion

ADA + HAL has orders now for 2+4+2+8+20+12+6=54 LCA. Their current output is One LCA per One and half year.
by Raj Malhotra
20 Sep 2009 22:23
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Can nuclear deterrence survive on a bluff?
Replies: 148
Views: 11070

Re: Can nuclear deterrence survive on a bluff?

I wonder why P-5 did not go with your theory. What do you mean P5 did not go with my theory. Could you explain that. The P5 have recognized and implemented countermeasures to that theory long before I even thought of it. It is not even my theory - although you seem to have heard it first from me an...
by Raj Malhotra
20 Sep 2009 22:04
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 150538

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Re Arun_S Now to discuss this from another angle. PKI earlier articles talked about possibility of bigger FBF to trigger a TN. Is it possible that in PKI era, he designed a much bigger TN, say 500kt-IMT, using a fbf derived from S2 as primary? and Chidambaram went for a sophisticated much lighter de...
by Raj Malhotra
20 Sep 2009 21:32
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 150538

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Yes Pak officially declared it by Kargill war! :lol: they why they didnt used the Nukes against us when they were beaten back. Hence Pak, China & USA don't believe we have TN only Indian public should rest (get killed) in peace So why USA surge ahead to stop the 2 countries kargil war into Nucl...
by Raj Malhotra
20 Sep 2009 13:07
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 150538

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

The source is again in Tellis's book from 2001. Chapter 5 Page 516. There are two sources, one from Pakistan and one from China used in support of the quote below. The Pakistani scientific community, however, has already publicly expressed its disbelief about the success of India's thermonuclear ex...
by Raj Malhotra
20 Sep 2009 13:04
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 150538

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

How we will proceed further, i a govt official declares we have TN bums. It does not matter much what the govt official says as neither Pakistan nor China believe we have TN weapons. Sorry for asking the source :oops: Any official declaration from China/Pakistan on this ? Yes Pak officially declare...
by Raj Malhotra
20 Sep 2009 13:02
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 150538

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

I think that TN yield being low has been talked about/leaked now since the proposal for Indo-US nuke deal. It is possible that PKI (with Sanathanam?) were talking privately about lot of things. Now with FMCT & CTBT looming Sanathanam has come out in the open That is only one theory. There is an...
by Raj Malhotra
20 Sep 2009 12:52
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Can nuclear deterrence survive on a bluff?
Replies: 148
Views: 11070

Re: Can nuclear deterrence survive on a bluff?

The whole point of having a nuke is that it should never be used. Having a doubtful nuke actually increases the risk that bluff will be called by some mad man in the adversorial nation. Therefore we must have a very very clear demonstration of capability of TN of upto 200-500kt several times. Raj -...
by Raj Malhotra
20 Sep 2009 12:45
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Can nuclear deterrence survive on a bluff?
Replies: 148
Views: 11070

Re: Can nuclear deterrence survive on a bluff?

There have been reports that Pak has 90 nukes. We ALL know Pak cannot make 90 nukes. Is this one way of China + USA telling us that if you get into conventional scrap with Pak we will nuke you and tell the world pak did it!!!!!!!!!! Remember Clinton era which was not far away, he was using Pak, Bang...
by Raj Malhotra
20 Sep 2009 12:36
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 150538

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

I think that GoI declaration that we have weaponised the TN would be first step. The second step would be that somebody "independant" nominated by the GoI comes forth and says that "I checked" the calculations. Not that GoI simply says that believe PC as not believing him is here...
by Raj Malhotra
20 Sep 2009 12:20
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Can nuclear deterrence survive on a bluff?
Replies: 148
Views: 11070

Re: Can nuclear deterrence survive on a bluff?

The whole point of having a nuke is that it should never be used. Having a doubtful nuke actually increases the risk that bluff will be called by some mad man in the adversorial nation. Therefore we must have a very very clear demonstration of capability of TN of upto 200-500kt several times.
by Raj Malhotra
20 Sep 2009 12:15
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 150538

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

The whole point of having a nuke is that it should never be used. Having a doubtful nuke actually increases the risk that bluff will be called by some mad man in the adversorial nation. Therefore we must have a very very clear demonstration of capability of TN of upto 200-500kt several times.
by Raj Malhotra
20 Sep 2009 12:13
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 150538

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

I think that TN yield being low has been talked about/leaked now since the proposal for Indo-US nuke deal. It is possible that PKI (with Sanathanam?) were talking privately about lot of things. Now with FMCT & CTBT looming Sanathanam has come out in the open
by Raj Malhotra
20 Sep 2009 12:09
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 150538

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/nsa-dismisses-santhanams-claims-on-pokhranii-as-horrific/519324/0 NSA dismisses Santhanam's claims on Pokhran-II as 'horrific' " The thermonuclear device had a yield of 45 kilotons. I have chosen my words carefully 45 kilotons and nobody, including Mr Santhana...
by Raj Malhotra
20 Sep 2009 11:57
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 150538

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

100 kg for pure fission is overtly optimistic, few times of the quoted figure is more realistic. I think there is some post somewhere in which a "minister" refers to our strategic payload as 100-250kg. Also I am referring to "device" and not to the "bomb". Even TN devi...
by Raj Malhotra
20 Sep 2009 11:24
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 150538

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

I think there is some post somewhere in which a "minister" refers to our strategic payload as 100-250kg. Also I am referring to "device" and not to the "bomb". Even TN devices of USA are 40-100kg, so I would like to believe in Indian 100kg pure fission 25kt device. Not...
by Raj Malhotra
20 Sep 2009 10:57
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 150538

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

[i]I agree, our (non)credible (almost nil) deterrant is now based on pure fission 10-25kt bombs of say 100kg (device) weight. 100 kg for pure fission is overtly optimistic, few times of the quoted figure is more realistic. I think there is some post somewhere in which a "minister" refers ...
by Raj Malhotra
20 Sep 2009 10:54
Forum: Nuclear Issues Archive
Topic: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2
Replies: 2359
Views: 150538

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

The hole in my analysis of fission bomb being 25kt is that why did Sanathanam only say BARC agreed with their analysis of Fission yield? He should have then fired the nuke, by adding that the "agreed yield" of fission bomb was 25kt and BARC "begged" that in public domain it shou...

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