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by Suraj
14 May 2019 23:15
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 471120

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

It's hard to tell whether Chintamani's cryptic statement is about upside (north of 25, but not a complete wipeout of TMC) or downside (under 10). AshRockzz for example states: Ash Rockzz ‏ @Ash_Rokzz23 1h1 hour ago More Bhupendra Chaubey: Something huge is brewing in West Bengal. There might be a ts...
by Suraj
14 May 2019 22:49
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 471120

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Chintamani ‏ @IamIconoclast 39m39 minutes ago More #ChintamaniSpeaks #Elections2019 @Election_in The numbers coming from Bengal are beyond belief. Looks like we will go completely wrong on West Bengal because of uncertainties on fair polling. In a fair poll, TMC cannot cross into double digits. How ...
by Suraj
14 May 2019 09:46
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 471120

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

vimal wrote:Maybe we should open an India history thread. I've been asking for an Indology/India history thread for some time now.

Sorry, GDF is done . As this thread already demonstrates, posters cannot and will not stay on topic . This thread too will be gone after May 23.
by Suraj
14 May 2019 09:05
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 471120

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Folks, FYI it’s 2019, not 1935. I know it’s a slow news day but we would be better of locking this thread than have it derail further. At least keep it contemporary .
by Suraj
14 May 2019 06:46
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 471120

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Can we keep our heads together here ? People are losing their wits, demanding everything from dictatorship to extrajudicial killings . Please stop advocating such nonsense .
by Suraj
14 May 2019 03:47
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 471120

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Clip of Prannoy Roy's interview with mango people in UP, thanks to Rishi Bagree

https://twitter.com/rishibagree/status/ ... 7865011200

https://twitter.com/rishibagree/status/ ... 6139736064

I wonder why Roy doesn't stick to interviewing people who tell him what he wants to hear .
by Suraj
14 May 2019 00:44
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 471120

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

I've held the urge to read any 'analysis' that does not explain its methodology, but on the basis of the issues that have been highlighted well ahead of the elections. The mango man doesn't resonate with hear say as much as they do with innate needs. We can apply that to your argument too :) As you...
by Suraj
13 May 2019 23:58
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 471120

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

The access part I agree 100%. The political squabble lies in the fact that a subsidized cylinder would cost in Rs 4xx during UPA while, at a minimum Rs 7xx during NDA 2 The political squabble is noise. At the end of UPA2, let's say 45% had access to gas cylinders (probably an overestimation). In 20...
by Suraj
13 May 2019 23:48
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 471120

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

most mistreated are the destitute farmers who have left the land and come to city to work in construction jobs as casual labour, because they have no other marketable skill. caught in the claws of tough labour contractors they are moved from work site to work site and live in plastic roofed shantie...
by Suraj
13 May 2019 23:41
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 471120

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Also, one thing to keep in mind is that - not the entire amount comes to account, only the subsidy amount. The poor still need to pay for the non-subsidy part of the cylinder. Since the subsidy is capped and the remaining price is still higher compared to UPA period, it gives the opposition a stick...
by Suraj
13 May 2019 23:23
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 471120

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Another important factor is that the rate at which development has occured from the perspective of the bottom of the pyramid, has accelerated significantly. Us middle class folks largely don't see it or appreciate it. But data is pretty broad based. In 2004, only about 15-20 percent of the Indian ru...
by Suraj
13 May 2019 21:44
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 471120

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

That looks like the ideal state of affairs - where INC is busy wagging fingers... at each other . A more sophisticated situation than Kejriwal trying to place his cheek in the path of every swinging hand he sees around him .
by Suraj
13 May 2019 20:59
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 471120

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

I don't see any issue with the radar story. For one, as Karan M showed, it's deliberate obfuscation and noise. For another, that indignant noise is beneficial since it keeps the herd occupied at working themselves up into a mouthful of lather. That sort of thing isn't them setting the agenda - it's ...
by Suraj
13 May 2019 13:51
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 471120

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

So with one phase left, GE2019 looks almost certain to exceed the total turnout percentage of GE2014, amounting to ~65 million more people having voted. Off the top of my head, GE2014 had a registered electorate of ~810 million and 66.4% turnout, for ~536 million votes. GE2019 has a ~900 million ele...
by Suraj
13 May 2019 13:37
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Railways Thread (Dec 2015)
Replies: 3400
Views: 477816

Re: Indian Railways Thread (Dec 2015)

I just remembered that the WAP-1 and WAP-4 are Indian designed electric locos, though with imported power electricals (Hitachi traction motors in the latter, as far as I recall). The Train-20 program attempts to replace the steel in the Train-18 coachwork with aluminium, among other things. What doe...
by Suraj
13 May 2019 10:03
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Railways Thread (Dec 2015)
Replies: 3400
Views: 477816

Re: Indian Railways Thread (Dec 2015)

hanumadu wrote:How come we can convert diesel locos to electric but not make our own electric locomotives?
What are we going to do with the 1000 diesel locomotives that GE is building for us in Bihar?

Well, to be fair we skipped right over to a semi-HSR grade Train 18 EMU .
by Suraj
13 May 2019 01:44
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Railways Thread (Dec 2015)
Replies: 3400
Views: 477816

Re: Indian Railways Thread (Dec 2015)

Have you looked at China Rail Corps’ debt load ? It’s close to $1 TRILLION . With a T . CRC debt is approx CNY 5.5 trillion and 6.8 CNY is $1. China has a very mature debt financing system . You don’t need to depend solely on tax revenues to build stuff like this . You pretty much just print money a...
by Suraj
12 May 2019 20:29
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 471120

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Scan of twitter suggests that turnout :
MP vastly exceeded 2014 figure
Delhi and Haryana well below 2014
Bihar, UP and Jharkhand more or less on par
WB slightly below 2014 (81 vs 84 pc)
by Suraj
12 May 2019 14:15
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 471120

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

bharat badal raha hai...and NDA is driving the change. Another example: GE2009: IPL shifted to South Africa GE2014: IPL partially shifted to UAE for duration of election GE2019: held simultaneously with IPL and ongoing management of Cyclone Fani reconstruction, most destructive cyclone in 20 years....
by Suraj
12 May 2019 00:09
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 471120

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Yes I know :) I posted during the 2014 thread that I expect the situation in KL to get worse for BJP before it gets better , not just because they need to improve party apparatus , but because their natural vote bloc is the left vote. Those LDF people are very religious and grounded and their suppor...
by Suraj
11 May 2019 23:50
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 471120

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Apologies for linking the Wire here but this is an article quoted by Suyash Bhardwaj on Twitter . It is a psephological experiment asking boatmen transporting people at Sangam about what they’ve learned . They’ve shown an uncanny ability to gauge the public mood, dating all the way back to 1977, and...
by Suraj
11 May 2019 22:13
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 471120

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Suraj & others, We've seen an explosion in terms of communication reach via socmed, whatsapp etc. Plus our population is younger than earlier. Perhaps a headset awareness/ability to rouse such population to vote generally is a cause more than a "wave" of any sort. Better education amo...
by Suraj
11 May 2019 13:26
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 471120

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

This election is NOTHING like 2004 in terms of the parameter under discussion - voting turnout. 2004 was a boring election in that regard, with 58% turnout in line with long term average, a drop from 60% in the previous one in 1999 when the population voted decisively to give NDA a mandate and end t...
by Suraj
11 May 2019 13:08
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 471120

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Suraj, two theories or inferences you mention regarding higher turnout: anti incumbency or wave. Looking at anti-incumbency, IMO, this feeling that public has to boot out the incumbent can and will be felt across the country, one can hear and feel disenchantment and disgruntled sentiments among the...
by Suraj
11 May 2019 12:26
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 471120

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

For dealing with hostile DDM, we have the Singapore model of LKY. Use existing benign looking libel laws, and hound them relentlessly through the legal system. Of course, LKY had the courts supporting him. It is like judiciously waiting for a loose ball and hitting it hard. Yes the LKY example is v...
by Suraj
11 May 2019 11:59
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 471120

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Reports of huge nos of purbanchalis in delhi packed in trains heading east to vote Yes I’ve seen multiple reports of this . But I don’t understand why it is there . One can claim ‘Modi wave #2’ but I don’t want justification from others . Not much has been reported of detailed interviews of such pe...
by Suraj
11 May 2019 11:19
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 471120

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Katare boss , I’ll wait until May 23 to decide whether to agree vehemently with you or ban you for jinxing it :) Jokes apart, yes the turnout data this decade is very unusual . In fact turnout this GE is even more unusual than 2014 because back then there were obvious sign and decipherable reasons ....
by Suraj
11 May 2019 09:48
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 471120

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Kashi-san , SHQ is busy on Line right this minute planing young ones Shichi-Go-San later this year , with her family in Japan :) Japan in general has a more grounded view of their local customs than we do. Even the elite do Hatsumoude on New Years night . I have done it a couple of times now and wil...
by Suraj
11 May 2019 06:06
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 471120

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

I'm not even sure if it is hate. One billion souls to harvested for the king would put Xtianity in an unassailable position. From cannon fodder against Islam to intellectual horsepower and often excellent physicians, it would be a coup for the West. Or so goes the thinking. However, more mature soc...
by Suraj
11 May 2019 05:54
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 471120

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Yes, defining Hinduphobia is essential, but so is understanding of the arguments of the other side. All the Abrahaminic religions are nothing but a house of cards, but you need to know where the foundation is weakest. I agree in general but have a problem with the above. It is specifically this - y...
by Suraj
11 May 2019 05:27
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 471120

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Hinduism is largely amorphous and its meaning perhaps evanescent. This is because it is decentralised albeit the formalism of the Vedas. As such it is trivial to assault Hinduism because there are a thousand Hinduisms. Assaults are indefensible. There is a very good reason why I did not use Hinduis...
by Suraj
11 May 2019 05:24
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 471120

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

The parameters of this aren't very different from mischaracterizing a corporate entity. Let's say we're talking about Reliance Industries. Their website states that they are a diversified conglomerate involved in oil and gas, refining, etc etc. A press article can criticize them in the context of so...
by Suraj
11 May 2019 04:43
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 471120

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Once again I agree. This cannot be done by the citizenry at large being enlightened and proud, because really the issue is something else - a control of the narrative against a religion, AND the control of the terms of what constitutes hate speech against that religion. Now, freedom of speech enable...
by Suraj
11 May 2019 04:00
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 471120

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

eklavya wrote:Are you suggesting that this is done through legal means e.g. laws that criminalise criticism of RSS?

You need to stop trolling. How many days have you been here since your last ban ?
by Suraj
11 May 2019 03:58
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 471120

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Only problem is gaming the Indian system and those who have better access to legal ecosystem and can bribe/turn up supporting evidence can dominate the discourse. Hence my proposal to only have the MSM license dropped. But even that can be gamed to a degree. Structural reforms thread link here. Pos...
by Suraj
11 May 2019 03:26
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 471120

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Yes I was referring to nachiket's reference to Chinese system and not your points. Non-Indian journalists acting in this capacity have to face legal proceedings in India against their actions, and face a potential long bar against subsequent entry. Indian reporting contributors would be subject to f...
by Suraj
11 May 2019 03:20
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 471120

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

The Chinese Firewall example is quite a bad one. On one hand, it looks imposing and strong, but it's basically a nice big colander with lots of little holes. Whoever wants to get through the message can still get it through. I do agree with using immigration bars against journalists doing these from...
by Suraj
11 May 2019 03:11
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 471120

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

I agree with Karan that ignoring these is not an answer. Even blocking their access is not an answer. Easy for them to climb up a cross and claim victimhood, or celebrate every act of civil disobedience against the govt shutting access to nyt.com ("nyah nyah, you can't stop freedom, see Indians...
by Suraj
11 May 2019 00:51
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 471120

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

It’s really hard to use prior GE polling history to establish wave or incumbency here . Historically waves and anti-incumbency have been characterized by one thing - a significant rise in turnout . Not a high turnout but a rise , even if it’s from low previously to moderate next time . The two GEs o...

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