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by Suraj
05 Jun 2019 23:56
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 3208
Views: 565200

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

PM Modi sets up two cabinet committees to address growth, employment concerns Prime Narendra Modi on Wednesday constituted two cabinet committees to address the growth needs of the economy amid reports indicating an economic slowdown. The five-member cabinet committee on growth and investment led b...
by Suraj
05 Jun 2019 22:01
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 388
Views: 38690

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Probably worth more detailed analysis in the roads thread, but Yogi is on a tear pushing for completion of several long expressways in UP before 2022. Implementing these will change UP drastically, from basically the largest laggard, to the most impressively connected one, with UP alone accounting f...
by Suraj
05 Jun 2019 21:42
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 3208
Views: 565200

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Brent crude prices have fallen below $60 for the first time since start of 2019. A positive for the economy.
by Suraj
05 Jun 2019 21:04
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 388
Views: 38690

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

The whole argument around toilets as store rooms misses the point. The poor demonstrably do not punish the government for their own inability to put infrastructure to use. Whether it is toilets as store rooms, or used gas cylinders as seats, the memes abound. These are all part of the narrative that...
by Suraj
05 Jun 2019 20:33
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 3208
Views: 565200

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

I recall a similar slight moderation in May 2014 . The elections get in the way of business as usual . PMI data is better as 3 month rolling averages, as far as plotting trends go .
by Suraj
05 Jun 2019 10:17
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 388
Views: 38690

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

JEM: thanks!! Please feel free. https://i.ibb.co/ZHdGL72/Screen-Shot-2019-06-04-at-10-07-38-PM.png GDP is really a macroeconomic picture. Even with some slow down in macro-economic numbers Modi/BJP has captured the imagination of the youth in India. Apart from any other reason, the prime reason for ...
by Suraj
05 Jun 2019 06:07
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 388
Views: 38690

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

The lot of Hindus (generally speaking, all poor, but Hindus are the most numerically visible and most associated with the image) as poor, wretched, 'dirty' and backward - scrawny people with beseeching looks on their faces - is something Modi strove hard to fix from 2014. A lot of people were underw...
by Suraj
05 Jun 2019 04:15
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion
Replies: 2982
Views: 94407

Re: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion

If we decide to offer our input, what would be the most persuasive thing that we would say to our Muslim brethren to encourage them to let go of their resentment at losing the veto, and to move forward along with us? Thinking about what you wrote makes me ask: Why consider them as one entity ? Why ...
by Suraj
05 Jun 2019 02:30
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion
Replies: 2982
Views: 94407

Re: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion

Rudradev - great post. I tangentially mentioned the same in the post right before yours where I referring to the psychological effect to Muslims of seeing even Dalits far better off than them, but you're much better at describing it.
by Suraj
05 Jun 2019 01:39
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion
Replies: 2982
Views: 94407

Re: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion

Hate to say this but with this behavior, the Muslim community is literally losing their influence with the BJP, and completely showing their disassociation with the Hindu community. In effect they are disenfranchising themselves and making themselves irrelevant to the national aim. Well, seen anoth...
by Suraj
05 Jun 2019 00:40
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion
Replies: 2982
Views: 94407

Re: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion

Lokniti post poll analysis continued - polling differences by religion:
Image
Image
More here
by Suraj
05 Jun 2019 00:36
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion
Replies: 2982
Views: 94407

Re: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion

Another post poll analysis proving how rural gains drove 2019: Where did the BJP get its votes from in 2019? Summary: the biggest gains in voteshare came from the poorest group of people. However, the group with the largest BJP voteshare remains the upper middle class. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D8...
by Suraj
05 Jun 2019 00:10
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 3208
Views: 565200

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

GST collection crosses ₹ 1 lakh crore-mark for third consecutive month in May Even after slowdown in industrial activity, the Government managed to collect more than ₹1 lakh crore plus in May. This is third consecutive month of ₹1 lakh crore plus mobilization. However, collection in May was lower t...
by Suraj
04 Jun 2019 12:26
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Railways Thread (Dec 2015)
Replies: 3402
Views: 479465

Re: Indian Railways Thread (Dec 2015)

Piyush Goyal is on Twitter . Why not give him and the MOS a chance to respond directly ? Present the questions respectfully , ask for more clarity . It does not benefit this forum to be a silo sitting around in judgment of the world without engaging it actively by means now available quite easily .
by Suraj
04 Jun 2019 12:22
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Kerala, Andhra and Tamil Nadu - news and strategy thread
Replies: 461
Views: 32733

Re: Kerala, Andhra and Tamil Nadu - news and strategy thread

It takes two hands to clap . Where’s the proof that TN has demonstrated the intellectual honesty to accept reality when it’s in front of its face ? Having lived there some years, gone to school and university there, it’s clear there’s an ingrained political sentiment that views all politics solely t...
by Suraj
04 Jun 2019 12:01
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion
Replies: 2982
Views: 94407

Re: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion

The west’s opinion is the least of our concerns . It is criminal negligence of 70 decades of political rule that even the party coming into power in 2014 faced a country where 60% of the rural population (who comprise 65-70% of population) had no access to toilets, running water, roads, electricity,...
by Suraj
04 Jun 2019 11:13
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Kerala, Andhra and Tamil Nadu - news and strategy thread
Replies: 461
Views: 32733

Re: Kerala, Andhra and Tamil Nadu - news and strategy thread

Gus: I’m not anywhere near TN, but the name of the program is PM Mudra Yojana . It’s written on every application form . It has both a reference to PM, and it’s in Hindi, though neither a Tamil nor Mallu will have trouble with its meaning . The point I was making is that if TN at least chooses to ha...
by Suraj
04 Jun 2019 10:56
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 3208
Views: 565200

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Wheat production rises 1.3% to 101.20 MT in crop year 2018-19 India’s wheat production has increased to a record 101.20 million tonne (MT) for the crop year 2018-19 (July-June), up by 1.3% from a year ago, the agriculture ministry said, releasing the third advance estimate of the year’s crop output...
by Suraj
04 Jun 2019 07:33
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion
Replies: 2982
Views: 94407

Re: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion

souravB wrote:Here you go for the lok sabha attendance.
This is also a good website to track LS performance.

Excellent , thank you !
by Suraj
04 Jun 2019 06:14
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion
Replies: 2982
Views: 94407

Re: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion

Does anyone know whether Lok Sabha maintains records of attendance and voting profile like they have in US Congress ? I recall an article indicating RaGa had a very poor attendance record in the 16th Lok Sabha , but I have no idea where that article is and where they got data from .
by Suraj
04 Jun 2019 06:03
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion
Replies: 2982
Views: 94407

Re: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion

The LOP is a parliamentary position and not a constitutional one . The speaker is probably the ultimate arbiter as to whether the opposition can horse trade their way up to 10% . My own guess is that this is not possible - INC would have tried it in 2014 when they were VERY insistent on an exception...
by Suraj
04 Jun 2019 04:57
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion
Replies: 2982
Views: 94407

Re: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion

He can aspire to LOP position in the next GE. No party that contested in 2019 won enough seats to stake a claim to LOP. 55 seats are required. INC has 52, of which 8 are just DMK seat sharing arragement - their native seat count is 44, same as last time.
by Suraj
04 Jun 2019 01:21
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion
Replies: 2982
Views: 94407

Re: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion

One big task is there are 300 Million BPL persons in Bihar and UP. The goal is to move 200 M above the line soon. It maybe good idea to read the BJP manifesto now that they have won. Not anymore. There are 50M BPL across the whole country as of 2019, as quoted by SA Aiyar above, where he references...
by Suraj
04 Jun 2019 01:13
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion
Replies: 2982
Views: 94407

Re: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion

Swaminathan Ankaleshwara Aiyer blows a hole through the 'rural distress' argument championed by YoYa: BJP’s rural votes show talk of farm crisis misleading Annual GDP growth fell from 6.9% in 2017-18 to 6.8% in 2018-19. Worse, GDP in the latest January-March 2019 quarter slowed to just 5.8%. Yet Nar...
by Suraj
04 Jun 2019 00:19
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion
Replies: 2982
Views: 94407

Re: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion

So where and how are they hiding the money? Bank accounts will be monitored. And large purchases will be monitored. Even if they have it in cash, any purchases over 2 lakhs in cash is illegal. If they are stashing it in the hope of a return of congress govt, that is a long wait. I'm as skeptical as...
by Suraj
03 Jun 2019 23:34
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion
Replies: 2982
Views: 94407

Re: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion

MLK's famous I Have a Dream speech also avoids attacking the US constitution, but instead asserts that the system has not held true to the constitution. Five score years ago, a great American, in whose symbolic shadow we stand today, signed the Emancipation Proclamation. This momentous decree came a...
by Suraj
03 Jun 2019 23:18
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Kerala, Andhra and Tamil Nadu - news and strategy thread
Replies: 461
Views: 32733

Re: Kerala, Andhra and Tamil Nadu - news and strategy thread

Ignoring the language, Dravidian etc issues, I've been looking through economic data and here's something that stands out - the state with the largest amount of PMMY (Pradhan Mantri MUDRA Yojana) loans is Tamil Nadu . I guess a scheme named in Hindi wasn't a detriment to business instincts of the pe...
by Suraj
03 Jun 2019 22:43
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion
Replies: 2982
Views: 94407

Re: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion

It isn't. From my personal experience of my relatives staying in rural areas/villages (in Jharkhand and Eastern UP). The babus are smarter now. 1. Earlier : Poor people applied for money/loan/scheme on an informal condition that a particular percentage will be used a commission/bribe. 2. Now : The ...
by Suraj
03 Jun 2019 11:16
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion
Replies: 2982
Views: 94407

Re: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion

Pakistan’s problems are Pakistan’s self inflicted problems - circular debt trap with an external debt component . Sure there’s a risk of NPAs due to underrecoveries, but in my opinion, enabling people living in subsistence conditions to move to lower middle class lifestyle rapidly will fix these pro...
by Suraj
03 Jun 2019 10:40
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion
Replies: 2982
Views: 94407

Re: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion

Not that knowledgeable about economic theory, but intuitively it seems to me that there is a tradeoff between "distribution" vs. "rate of growth". I mean, if you didn't care (for the moment at least) about spreading the benefits to lower strata, you could probably achieve a high...
by Suraj
02 Jun 2019 02:25
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion
Replies: 2982
Views: 94407

Re: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion

Yes it was reported by many on SM . It was what led me to look up data on coverage of sanitation, roads, electricity, cooking fuel and banking . The data I found astonished me, and I posted about it . I stated that 2004 was not unexpected because growth by NDA-1 was very top down, and 85% of rural I...
by Suraj
02 Jun 2019 02:18
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV
Replies: 2309
Views: 327607

Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

I don’t see it as a case of India necessarily losing workers . Trade has three major axes - goods , capital and labour . All three can be moved around . Various countries are surplus or deficit in any of these three. US or other developed countries are capital surplus, mostly goods surplus and labou...
by Suraj
02 Jun 2019 02:00
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV
Replies: 2309
Views: 327607

Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

rgosain: I’m afraid you’ve misinterpreted my post . I did not argue that we don’t have to retaliate to every US action . I always advocate immediate retaliation in trade wars to maintain or enhance balance of power . What I tried to say in the post is that the impact of GSP on India in 2019 is rathe...
by Suraj
02 Jun 2019 01:53
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 3208
Views: 565200

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

To quote some movie dialogue, who gives a nandi dropping ? :) This is the economics thread. It has served its purpose for a long time by assiduously avoiding politics and yet the political results of the economic actions are covered in detail in the politics thread .
by Suraj
02 Jun 2019 01:43
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 3208
Views: 565200

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

GDP growth for both 2016-17 and 2017-18 were revised upwards significantly: GDP growth rate for 2017-18 revised upwards to 7.2% from 6.7% The government on Thursday revised its forecast for GDP growth for 2017-18 to 7.2% from the earlier estimate of 6.7%. It also revised the actual growth rate in 20...
by Suraj
02 Jun 2019 01:18
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion
Replies: 2982
Views: 94407

Re: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion

There's no data I've seen that proves that the middle class voted against Modi. Even SoBo and Khan Market's constituencies voted overwhelmingly for Bee Jay Pee.
by Suraj
02 Jun 2019 01:17
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV
Replies: 2309
Views: 327607

Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

A few words about GSP : it is a unilateral tariff regime set up by developed countries in the 1960s after UNCTAD discussions on increasing world trade. EU has similar preferential quota regimes for developing nations. These low/zero tariff structures favor low value add, manual labor based goods. Of...
by Suraj
02 Jun 2019 00:28
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion
Replies: 2982
Views: 94407

Re: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion

Yes I saw that talk , and YoYa shows some fancy PPT slides before Coupta basically incredulous at the raw data . The turnout gain heat map slides were pretty interesting - he came to the directly opposite conclusion ie that increase means anti-incumbency, while I argued that the increase is a result...
by Suraj
01 Jun 2019 23:47
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion
Replies: 2982
Views: 94407

Re: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion

Greatest Mandate for sure, but Balakot played a big role in this. I would say topping up BJP / NDA tally by 50 seats. Electricity, Gas, Bank Accounts etc. have been delivered for the poorest of the poor but puncturing of economic engine, largely due to incoherence between finance ministry and RBI (...

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