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by Suraj
01 Jun 2019 23:47
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion
Replies: 2982
Views: 94419

Re: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion

Greatest Mandate for sure, but Balakot played a big role in this. I would say topping up BJP / NDA tally by 50 seats. Electricity, Gas, Bank Accounts etc. have been delivered for the poorest of the poor but puncturing of economic engine, largely due to incoherence between finance ministry and RBI (...
by Suraj
01 Jun 2019 22:29
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 3210
Views: 565669

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Here's the 2018-19 Q4 and full year GDP report directly from CSO. Comments: * Full year growth at 6.8% in real terms, 11.2% in nominal terms. * Significant deceleration of Q4 performance to 5.8% growth rate. Potential a high base effect (corresponding figure in previous fiscal was 7.8%) * Investment...
by Suraj
01 Jun 2019 21:59
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion
Replies: 2982
Views: 94419

Re: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion

Gadkari has been stripped of his favorite portfolio - Ports,Shipping and Inland waterways. He made several proud statements about cleaning Ganga, starting river transport in Ganga, Sagar mala, etc. Instead he has been given heavy industries. It would have been best to keep all transportation (road,...
by Suraj
01 Jun 2019 21:51
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion
Replies: 2982
Views: 94419

Re: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion

Modi has declared a target to provide piped water to each home by 2024. This is massive, social impact of it is unmeasurable, beyond comparison. Even if modi achieves partial success he will come back with even bigger mandate in 2024. To restate what I described previously, in 2014 Modi targeted a ...
by Suraj
01 Jun 2019 08:59
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 3210
Views: 565669

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Yes the constant prices figures are NOT to be used - the current prices figures are . CSO really shouldn’t bother confusing people by reporting all sort of data like that - just the real growth rates and the GDP at current prices will do .
by Suraj
01 Jun 2019 05:54
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 3210
Views: 565669

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Please don't waste so many posts tracking precise exchange rates and comparative absolute GDPs. The entire exercise is an example of why absolute GDPs are not a fully representative view, and that GDP data is always to be reported both in absolute and PPP terms. This is particularly important when c...
by Suraj
01 Jun 2019 02:58
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 3210
Views: 565669

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Annoying that "please foreign investors" is in the top line. Won't these please domestic investors? Don't they want Indian investors to get rich; foreigners are welcome to come along for the ride? Let's not get into such politics here. The 'foreign investors' reference is about The Wire's...
by Suraj
31 May 2019 07:18
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Sports and Entertainment Industry
Replies: 4996
Views: 417448

Re: Indian Sports and Entertainment Industry

I don't think that's a fair characterization. It is true that we won a lot of medals before prior OGs, but largely at a much lower performance standard - mainly Commonwealth Games. We have no history of domination in the World Cup circuit - something we have built momentum in since 2016 as the data ...
by Suraj
30 May 2019 23:49
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion
Replies: 2982
Views: 94419

Re: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion

Both in 2014 and 2019, the media had essentially ZERO access to the cabinet formation plans. The Modi administration runs a very tight ship in this regard, and external influence into the process is non existent. Please don't quote speculation because that's all it is - baseless speculation. Turdesa...
by Suraj
30 May 2019 22:56
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion
Replies: 2982
Views: 94419

Re: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion

Suresh Prabhu will probably be brought back in through the backdoor after UT has been handled appropriately. When SP resigned in the wake of the rail accidents, Modi refused to accept the resignation and instead reassigned him to CivAv. It's simply a matter of temporary political needs. If a full ND...
by Suraj
30 May 2019 22:38
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion
Replies: 2982
Views: 94419

Re: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion

A few days ago, Modi mentioned (can't find the article) that his goal for 2019 was to fix the problems of decades of lack of delivery of basic goods and services to the poor. But then mentioned that his goal for 2024 was a different one - to establish India's long term position in the world. In effe...
by Suraj
30 May 2019 20:10
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Sports and Entertainment Industry
Replies: 4996
Views: 417448

Re: Indian Sports and Entertainment Industry

India swept both the mixed team events at the Munich shooting World Cup . Saurabh Chaudhry and Manu Bhaker won the pistol mixed team gold by a mile. The Anjun Moudgil/Divyansh Singh Panwar team ( India A) won gold in the rifle event beating India B (Apurvi and Deepak Kumar) to silver . 5 golds 1 sil...
by Suraj
29 May 2019 00:23
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion
Replies: 2982
Views: 94419

Re: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion

Ash Rockzz posted this on Twitter:

Rae Bareli 2009
INC 481490 72.23%
BSP 109325 16.4%
BJP 25444 3.82%

2014
INC 526434 63.8%
BJP 173721 21.05%
BSP 63633 7.71%

2019
INC 534918 55.8%
BJP 367740 38.36%
by Suraj
28 May 2019 21:16
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion
Replies: 2982
Views: 94419

Re: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion

Sorry there is no point in analyzing Al Jazeera here , and I for one won’t give them a click. Sabka vishwas has nothing to do with Muslims - the term vishwas and bharosa has been repeatedly stated by voters and he is simply affirming that he has heard them . The commonest theme of the election was t...
by Suraj
28 May 2019 13:42
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Sports and Entertainment Industry
Replies: 4996
Views: 417448

Re: Indian Sports and Entertainment Industry

Saurabh Chaudhry wins 10m air pistol gold once again at the 3rd leg of the World Cup in Munich, with another world record of 246.2. Apurvi Chandela won gold in women's 10m air rifle and Rahi Sarnobat won gold in 25m air pistol. India continues to top the 2019 World Cup series tally with 9 golds, 1 s...
by Suraj
27 May 2019 20:36
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Indo-UK News & Discussions- June 2017
Replies: 2118
Views: 289839

Re: Indo-UK News & Discussions- June 2017

You claim to disagree with me and then state largely in agreement with what I stated :) India, like Germany, is a jus sanguinis country and has entirely eliminated jus solis basis of citizenship acquisition. India does not provide a path to naturalization from a work visa at all. As such, an infinit...
by Suraj
27 May 2019 11:58
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion
Replies: 2982
Views: 94419

Re: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion

^^ That part is OK but did he have to quote that bustard @Javedakhtarjadu of all people. I mean he couldn't find a single line form any of our spiritual literature to imply the same? If he did not want to quote Hindu scripture he could have quoted Guru Nanak or Buddha or Mahavir. I am sure we could...
by Suraj
27 May 2019 11:20
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion
Replies: 2982
Views: 94419

Re: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion

Instead of complaining about a newbie first time MP here why not just tell him that bluntly on SM, tagging the PMO handle too if required ?
by Suraj
27 May 2019 11:17
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Indo-UK News & Discussions- June 2017
Replies: 2118
Views: 289839

Re: Indo-UK News & Discussions- June 2017

Those are both settlement permits similar to a US green card, and not a work visa tied to an employer as such. Even the US green card can be revoked under several conditions. India does not have any settlement or permanent residence statuses. The UK subject is much more different. They used to have ...
by Suraj
27 May 2019 01:16
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Indo-UK News & Discussions- June 2017
Replies: 2118
Views: 289839

Re: Indo-UK News & Discussions- June 2017

Which major economy allows an endlessly renewable non immigrant work visa status ?
by Suraj
26 May 2019 23:24
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion
Replies: 2982
Views: 94419

Re: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion

I thought with the utter loss of congress, trolls would give it a rest at least for a few months. But looks like they have already begun in right earnest for 2024. They won't stop until the margin is bigger in 2024 and totally wipe out congress. Bring it on scum bags. NEVER correct these types . We...
by Suraj
26 May 2019 21:33
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 3210
Views: 565669

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

I think this thread would do better to focus on India as opposed to China vs India. There's a China economy thread for that. Further off topic conversations will be deleted.
by Suraj
26 May 2019 21:31
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion
Replies: 2982
Views: 94419

Re: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion

Cmon people, there's a KL/TN/AP thread - why are you discussing all that in THIS thread ?
by Suraj
26 May 2019 21:26
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion
Replies: 2982
Views: 94419

Re: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion

At least one thing can be concluded correctly from the pre-result discussion - the impact of basic public goods (roads, electricity, fuel, banking, sanitation) being delivered to more than 90% of rural India - has been rewarded in spades politically . Modi’s BJP just won a voteshare larger than any...
by Suraj
26 May 2019 20:37
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion
Replies: 2982
Views: 94419

Re: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion

Modi’s BJP just won a voteshare larger than anything Indira Gandhi ever managed . That’s right - only two other elections had a winning voteshare larger than GE2019 - Nehru in 1957 and RG in 1984, both of which were essentially foregone conclusions with no credible challengers, compared to GE2019. ...
by Suraj
26 May 2019 10:32
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion
Replies: 2982
Views: 94419

Re: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion

At least one thing can be concluded correctly from the pre-result discussion - the impact of basic public goods (roads, electricity, fuel, banking, sanitation) being delivered to more than 90% of rural India - has been rewarded in spades politically . Modi’s BJP just won a voteshare larger than anyt...
by Suraj
23 May 2019 15:39
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion
Replies: 2982
Views: 94419

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

It's been fun to read Rupa Subramanya's twitter meltdown. Strongman blah blah failing economy blah blah institutions destroyed blah blah
by Suraj
23 May 2019 15:30
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion
Replies: 2982
Views: 94419

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Oh-wisey trailing by 2 lakh votes in Hyderabad. Sunny Leone leading by 2 lakh votes in Gurdaspur. Not true sir. Telanagana - Hyderabad ASADUDDIN OWAISI - All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen Dr. BHAGAVANTH RAO - Bharatiya Janata Party 253961 India today lists him as trailing by that figure, not l...
by Suraj
23 May 2019 15:24
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion
Replies: 2982
Views: 94419

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Oh-wisey trailing by 2 lakh votes in Hyderabad.
Sunny Leone leading by 2 lakh votes in Gurdaspur.
by Suraj
23 May 2019 14:56
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion
Replies: 2982
Views: 94419

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

The entire north and west of WB have been kommunalized. Only central/east/south remains sickular.
by Suraj
23 May 2019 14:51
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion
Replies: 2982
Views: 94419

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

I'm going to guess Sonia will attempt to move out of Rae Bareili to let Priyanka contest by-elections there. In that case, BJP needs to make a full court press to grab that seat too, and marginalize the Ghandi family to one seat from Wayanad.
by Suraj
23 May 2019 14:38
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion
Replies: 2982
Views: 94419

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Suraj's analysis of PP was spot on. Regarding false positives and false negatives. Credit goes to PeePee, not me :) He has been a very reliable estimator of wave elections. Both PP and Today's Chanakya had estimates in line with present trends - twice in a row . INC appears destined to finish below...
by Suraj
23 May 2019 14:31
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion
Replies: 2982
Views: 94419

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

In the past half hour, BJP has picked up leads from UP and WB, as seen from a reduction in SP, BSP and AITC lead figures during that interval. Hope they hold and finish above 300.
by Suraj
23 May 2019 14:17
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion
Replies: 2982
Views: 94419

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Anyone bothered to go check how the anthro.ai folks are doing with wiping egg off their faces ?
by Suraj
23 May 2019 13:45
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion
Replies: 2982
Views: 94419

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

As of 1:30pm on ECI

INC 51/542 leads . This is 16% more than 2014
BJP 296/542 leads . This is ONLEE 5% more than 2014

Mudi shud rejine
by Suraj
23 May 2019 13:29
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion
Replies: 2982
Views: 94419

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Anujan wrote:Last time leader of opposition status was granted to Congress. It probably will be granted this time too, even if they win less than 54

Not quite. LOP position is vacant in the 16th Lok Sabha.
by Suraj
23 May 2019 13:25
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion
Replies: 2982
Views: 94419

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

BJP leads in 294/542 according to ECI as of 1:10pm
by Suraj
23 May 2019 11:29
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections : Results Discussion
Replies: 2982
Views: 94419

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

EswarPrakash wrote:
mmasand wrote:ECI: BJP down to 288 now. This figure will flip flop till about 2pm.


We are talking BJP alone here? Or BJP+

ALL figures from ECI are by party - they don’t view alliance level stuff . That is an agreement on top of actual seat holdings .
by Suraj
22 May 2019 15:35
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Replies: 6200
Views: 472585

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

The NDA allies dinner has brought out the dhoti shiverer in me thinking it is all because Amit Shah is expecting a relatively poor showing and needs to keep the current allies close and also signal to potential allies like Jagan and Patnaik that BJP can be good for them. NDA will lose onlee :(( :((...

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