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by hanumadu
02 Jun 2020 20:32
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 7535
Views: 794623

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Are strict social distancing rules being followed in Mumbai and other places in India? If restrictions are eased will the cases increase again? Especially as the temperatures go down. Definitely not in Pune. Most non Red zones look like life has gone back to normal. No social distancing, no masks a...
by hanumadu
02 Jun 2020 18:28
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 7535
Views: 794623

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Can somebody tell me at what rate the economy is functioning currently? 50%, 70% or 80% of normal?
by hanumadu
02 Jun 2020 17:48
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 7535
Views: 794623

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Has Maharashtra seen the peak? If this is the worst in MH, other Indian cities cannot be much worse off than Mumbai with the possible exception of West Bengal/Kolkota. Is it because the migrants left? According to reports, only a quarter of the migrants left. Keeping fingers crossed. https://pbs.twi...
by hanumadu
01 Jun 2020 17:39
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 7535
Views: 794623

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Daily new cases hitting 8500. Will we have the highest number of daily cases eventually? I really hope the June 20 date for peak active cases is true. Daily deaths are also now consistently above 200. Peak active cases are when active cases > total recoveries. In that case, the highest no of daily ...
by hanumadu
01 Jun 2020 10:32
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 7535
Views: 794623

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Daily new cases hitting 8500. Will we have the highest number of daily cases eventually? I really hope the June 20 date for peak active cases is true. Daily deaths are also now consistently above 200.
by hanumadu
27 May 2020 10:37
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 7535
Views: 794623

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

The HIT is not set in stone, 60% HIT is based on an extremely simple infection model with an estimated R0 of 2.4. Putting in some realistic assumptions (conservative) about inhomogenities, the HIT comes down to the 10% to 20% range. If the inhomogenity assumptions are not so conservative (more in l...
by hanumadu
27 May 2020 08:39
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 7535
Views: 794623

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Sweden finished one round of antibody testing, and found that about 7% of Stockholm had been infected. Lots of press headlines, about how the herd immunity strategy failed, and how long a way it is to the herd immunity threshold of 60%. While Sweden might not have an official lockdown, its people w...
by hanumadu
25 May 2020 16:05
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 7535
Views: 794623

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Shekhar Gupta
@ShekharGupta
Meanwhile in Bharat...

Wheat procurement for 2020-21 surpasses 2019’s 34.13 million tonnes amid Covid-19 crisis


We had concerns about harvesting crops during covid19. Look like its not an issue.
Only urban areas are experiencing covid cases.
by hanumadu
24 May 2020 13:31
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)
Replies: 5052
Views: 919211

Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Isn't ZTE into the same things that Huawei does? Probably all the knowledge, production and customers have already been transferred to ZTE or some other chinese company. https://www.rcrwireless.com/20200225/5g/zte-already-secured-46-5g-commercial-contracts-globally ZTE has racked up 46 5G commercial...
by hanumadu
23 May 2020 14:39
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 7535
Views: 794623

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Almost 7000 (6700) new cases today. Half of them from MH. 5 day avg of doubling of active cases reduced from 21 to 16 days in the past few days. I wonder if Mumbai is going for herd immunity. When are anti body tests being done in India?
by hanumadu
23 May 2020 06:23
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 7535
Views: 794623

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

MH consistently having more new cases per day than New York. They should at least bring laws to make wearing mask compulsory and fine those who don't.
by hanumadu
21 May 2020 02:46
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 7535
Views: 794623

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Maharashtra is becoming unmanageable. Kolkota has similar density as Mumbai. The numbers coming out of Kolkota are complete BS. Tell me sir! I live in Kolkata. All markets opened. No night curfew. I guess I should come across streets full of corpses the moment step outside. I even took my car out f...
by hanumadu
20 May 2020 09:43
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 7535
Views: 794623

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Maharashtra is becoming unmanageable. Kolkota has similar density as Mumbai. The numbers coming out of Kolkota are complete BS.
by hanumadu
17 May 2020 10:45
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 7535
Views: 794623

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

~5000 new cases but ~4000 recoveries, so active cases up by ~900. Will 5k new cases be the norm going forward?
by hanumadu
16 May 2020 10:23
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 7535
Views: 794623

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Sudden spike in daily cases after april 29. Ramzan started on april 23. Source. https://twitter.com/ShamikaRavi/status/1261507510458109952 https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EYHF7zUWoAEWGAN?format=jpg&name=large We will probably see another spike from lock down relaxation and from the migrant workers t...
by hanumadu
15 May 2020 01:52
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 7535
Views: 794623

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

I am kinda relieved looking at the above graphs. It seems that with social distancing, wearing masks and following other precautions it is possible to flatten the curve (even with morons who flout the norms) in most states and cities except the behemoths. As the economy opens up, we will find out at...
by hanumadu
15 May 2020 01:39
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 7535
Views: 794623

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Prof Shamika Ravi
@ShamikaRavi
Where are the new cases coming from? 5Day moving average of new cases:
1) MH > TN > GJ, DL > RJ, MP, UP, WB...
2) Infection spreading eastward: OD, JH, TR...


Image
by hanumadu
15 May 2020 01:24
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 7535
Views: 794623

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EX9LtnkU4AA-ZkS?format=jpg&name=medium In many states, the active cases are less than recovered. There seems to be a pattern that states having a high number of cases and struggling to keep them in check are ones which have big metros in them. Even Gujarat with Ahmed...
by hanumadu
14 May 2020 22:28
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 7535
Views: 794623

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

As for under reporting, that's a known fact. Unless you have symptoms and are on the verge of dying, testing and admission are not being done. People affected by the virus have posted so on the web. Countries have guidelines on who gets tested and who don't. Those factors are common to number of new...
by hanumadu
14 May 2020 21:14
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 5507
Views: 1150620

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

This where the Law & Order comes in picture. Corruption too plays a part. Anyone willing to establish an industry if has to pay ransom calls from any entity then that's not a place to be in. I don't think the industrialized states are really way better but still comparatively far better on thes...
by hanumadu
14 May 2020 14:39
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 7535
Views: 794623

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Where did that 964 for UK come from? It has always been 3k+ positive cases every day. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ Why the difference? quite simple, UK was community infected much earlier than India. More disciplined lockdown has brought it under control to around 3-4% Please scroll down and lo...
by hanumadu
14 May 2020 14:09
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 7535
Views: 794623

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EX8xm6VVAAIat_K?format=jpg&name=large Why such a contrast between India and UK (and all other countries)? Lock down has been effective in reducing daily cases in most countries, but in India it has been the opposite. Of course, UK has far fewer population than India,...
by hanumadu
13 May 2020 00:26
Forum: Technology & Economic Forum
Topic: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017
Replies: 5507
Views: 1150620

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

I think there will be reforms but not as much as people are expecting.
by hanumadu
12 May 2020 02:05
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 7535
Views: 794623

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

US total cases and new deaths have dropped dramatically. It seems to be too good to be true. I was expecting a drop off, but not this fast. Since when? For the past few days, new cases have been around 27000/day and deaths have been between 1700-2700/day. I don't see a significant drop. source: htt...
by hanumadu
10 May 2020 10:11
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 7535
Views: 794623

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Active cases in Telangana decreased from 450 to 383 in the last 4 days. Considering there is a metro like Hyd, what are they doing right that some other states are not doing?
by hanumadu
08 May 2020 15:34
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Replies: 7406
Views: 981479

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

I can't imagine how the rails are even comfortable to sleep with the narrow concrete sleepers, the sharp stone ballast and the rails themselves. There are trees near the tracks and it would be most natural to sleep under them. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EXdqqL7UwAA81Zu?format=jpg&name=large
by hanumadu
07 May 2020 15:15
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 7535
Views: 794623

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Why are the govts not mandating that every every one stepping out of the house should wear a mask. The liquor rush is predictable, at least wearing a mask and strict 6 ft distance must have been enforced. Also once there were about 50 people in front of any store, the rest must have been turned back...
by hanumadu
06 May 2020 22:21
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV
Replies: 4518
Views: 732255

Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

https://www.cfr.org/blog/pandemic-and-china-are-strengthening-us-india-relations-now The Pandemic and China Are Strengthening U.S.-India Relations, for Now Blog Post by Guest Blogger for Alyssa Ayres, May 4, 2020 Alyssa Ayres is Ghadanand Dhume's wife. I don't know what her true feelings towards In...
by hanumadu
05 May 2020 10:57
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 7535
Views: 794623

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

4000 new cases in India today. Lock down is only being lifted now. The results of liquor crowding will be seen soon. And then there is the whole month of ramzan. The temperature and BCG theory will be fully tested soon in India. I think the ramzan effect is beginning to show.
by hanumadu
30 Apr 2020 12:18
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 7535
Views: 794623

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Having said that, if HCQ is saving even 5% of cases going critical, that is a big number in the context.
by hanumadu
30 Apr 2020 11:18
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Understanding the US - Again
Replies: 5245
Views: 681873

Re: Understanding the US - Again

Trump seems to be forgetting he won because a lot of liberals, as in true liberals not far left lunatics, voted for him. He seems to be taking them for granted and pandering to the far right lunatics and losing the liberals who voted for him. The pandemic is proving to be beyond his capability to ha...
by hanumadu
30 Apr 2020 09:59
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 7535
Views: 794623

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

'No doubt in my mind Hydroxychloriquine is very effective' against COVID-19: Palmer NJYSsJN431I How can we say that HCQ or any other drug is effective when 80 to 90 percent infected patients recover on their own without being critical or requiring hospitalization. The recovery rate has to be signif...
by hanumadu
29 Apr 2020 08:47
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 7535
Views: 794623

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

So majority of the cases are in Mumbai, Ahmedabad, Indore & Delhi. As expected, major cities. Now need some hard isolation methods in these cities. It is good and bad. Good as the spread are in cities, hence better access to Medical care. Bad, they are in cities so the spread will be large. Is ...
by hanumadu
26 Apr 2020 16:23
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 7535
Views: 794623

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

There is a trial going on in India with leprosy drug. @dasgobardhan is also the first to suggest BCG vaccination will be benefecial. Anand Ranganathan @ARanganathan72 Early days but it appears Prof @dasgobardhan 's suggestion is bearing fruit. PGI, Chandigarh reports improvement in critical CoVID pa...
by hanumadu
26 Apr 2020 15:41
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 7535
Views: 794623

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

There has been a 2000 case increase since yesterday. The daily increase is trending higher but there have been 600 recoveries too. With the relaxation in lock down and ramzan, I expect there will be far more cases in the coming days. I just hope our capacity for test kits, PPE, icu, ventilators come...
by hanumadu
26 Apr 2020 10:37
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India
Replies: 484
Views: 84080

Re: Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

While we dither over ending the lockdown and police harass old ladies trying to sell veggies on the street, it turns out some other countries never bought into the fearmongering and ... they're doing just fine. No overwhelmed healthcare system , no anarchy, no mass death toll. When this is all over...
by hanumadu
25 Apr 2020 03:03
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 7535
Views: 794623

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Looks like unless people see sick and dying people all around them, they will not follow lock down, social distancing or even a simple thing like wearing a mask. Considering that lock down had virtually no effect in muslim dominated areas, I am surprised there hasn't been an explosion of cases yet.
by hanumadu
24 Apr 2020 09:20
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 7535
Views: 794623

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

NY antibody tests show only 13.9% infection rate over the entire state and 22% in NYC. Disappointed. Given these figures, the death rate is 0.5% which is high. I really hope the figures are much better in India. There seems to be some kind of limit at around 25%. In Robbio, northern Italy, the anti...
by hanumadu
24 Apr 2020 08:18
Forum: Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum
Topic: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Replies: 7535
Views: 794623

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

NY antibody tests show only 13.9% infection rate over the entire state and 22% in NYC. Disappointed. Given these figures, the death rate is 0.5% which is high. I really hope the figures are much better in India. And also it seems to confirm the bias of the Stanford study that since it was voluntary...

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