Bharat Rakshak

Arun_S

We will find out when Sikka delivers his talk. I am told Chidambaram's disciples have developed cold feet and this will not happen now, not ever. After all the curve fitting job, the curves starting to be weighed down, its a losign battle to sustain the fiction of invisible yield on the emperor's b...

Arun_S

Folks one reason we are having this thread is a strong foriegn connection has shown itself with the inordinate US interest. Unless all the links are explored and understood this thread will stay. Such entities can be people or organizations If we dont study such foreign linkages of people, places, ...

Arun_S

What percentage of burn is needed from 3rd stage ( LiD ) to jump from fizzle to sizzle ? PKI mentioned the current S1 burnt ~ 10 % , hence a fizzle. Question not clear. LiD is second stage not third stage. In TN lingo Natural Uranium or fissile tamper is called as the 3'rd stage . If it was a typo ...

Arun_S

I agree on the part that the yield verification by seismic data should be done by an unrelated organization. If we do a 150kt phataka, the following would happen: 1. NPA will claim it is only 30KT, hence fizzle. 2. Hawks will claim it is FBF, too heavy to put on the tip of the missile etc, hence no...

Arun_S

The classic "proof" was from the "Arms Control Donk" who claimed with no sarcasm about himself: When I published the yield estimates in 1998, the BARC sent me a stack of documents. I gave them to my beer buddies to read those and explain them to me, and they said it was "sh...

Arun_S

In fact the one group that could help people in such an issue is an opposition party. But the main opposition - the BJP is not only in disarray it is also responsible for saying "No more tests". In fact it is the Congress who should say "BJP was wrong". But that is not happening...

Arun_S

Few observations: 1.) Who cares about what NPA think or do. 2.) Successful bomb of 150kT and above will speak for itself. In fact it will be useful to do many 150kt+ test and not disclose which one of those were fission or TN. That obfuscation is a better for deterrence. 3) For Indian users I.e. Mi...

Arun_S

After all data will always be hard to come by - so what confidence will we have in our second round tests (if it happens)? Arnab Guru, That is the crux of the problem. With data hard to come by how will folks who don't have confidence in the scientists who will conduct the second round, if any, bel...

Arun_S

India is building dams and reservoirs on Pakistani rivers :rotfl: Is the water in those rivers green? Looks like India built dams in Pakistan. By the same token we need to be ready to watch and react appropriately to Chinese mischief with Brahmaputra that is under way. Red onleee cousine of Green. ...

Arun_S

Correct ! This is first step in the marathon. Winning or losing is a long way to go. Can we trip others on the way? for that GoI, DRDO and BARC has to change to a different gear and improved work culture. Quality come where there is bonafied way to make profit and personal gain. Pay peanuts and you ...

Arun_S

The various reported and claimed yields range from 5 to 60 kilotons. Someone should have already pointed this out earlier. I confess having not followed the discussions in all associated threads closely. Still, let me begin with the given number 50+/-10 kT for the yield. If the uncertainty quoted i...

Arun_S

The forthcoming talk at IDSA by Dr. S.K. Sikka should be discussed there. Measuring Nuclear Test Yield: Understanding Pokhran II Speaker: Dr. S.K. Sikka, Scientific Secretary, Office of the Principal Scientific Advisor to Government of India Date & Time: 14th September 2009 at 1100 hrs Venue: I...

Arun_S

as we know now BARC did a small portion fo that for teh purpose of proving fusion happened rather than accurately determining the yield. Wrong. BARC only published that. Nobody publishes the real measurements. At best neither you nor I have proof that they did not do it so concluding that they did ...

Arun_S

My point is everybody and anybody who is trying to prove or disprove KS’s assertions are claiming that the yield values are arrived or calculated using following three analysis.. (a) Sesmic – highly inaccurate (b) Accelerometer measurements (c) Post-shot radio-chemical and cavity analysis Sesmic an...

Arun_S

brihaspati wrote:By the way, what happens to the neutron brahmastra?

That has to await mastery of fusion fuel burning first.
So no TN weapon, also mean no neutron brahmastra.

Arun_S

>>>To measure by-products in rock due to bomb's neutrons, protons and gamma rays one has to measure the gradient of these by products (radially) along radial lines at different axis and then double integrate it over the volume to arrive at the total measure of by-products in rock that will tell how...

Arun_S

>>>So for a semi-hemispherical shaped cavity (more like a cup) , where in this paper do they do the second integral to arrive at the total fission. If you still can’t understand, sorry, I can’t help any further. The equation is a single integal over "H". Where is this double integral comi...

Arun_S

BTW. it is Shiv's assertion that the paper is weak and nothing new in it being beaten and thrashed now. That is why I did not take the bait - knowing that this is the sort of argument that is ready made for those who take the bait. It doe not add to the available data. But did you note the fact tha...

Arun_S

>>>Each hole gives a core. Each core is partitioned into samples for measurement considerations, coming from different height. Each of these samples represent a point on the graph in Fig-4, one for a specific sample section coming a particular depth section of the drilled core. That is why they use...

Arun_S

Arun_S Sirji: I wasn't aiming my message at anybody in particular. BTW, Brajesh Mishra, in a recent Hindu interview, says that a review was conducted after the tests and it was concluded in that review that DRDO instrumentation malfunctioned. I know you mean well. I am just a confused and uninforme...

Arun_S

>>>Taking Shiv's assertion at face value, can anyone figure out why heavyweights at BARC publish such papers that can be trashed by scientific analysis of fresh collage graduate? If the fresh college graduate feels he is trashing the BARC papers with his ‘scientific analysis’, then all that the BAR...

Arun_S

BTW can someone tell me what is the subject/trade that CURRENT SCIENCE can claim as its subject domain? and what is the ranking of CURRENT SCIENCE in the pecking order of trade journals in relevant subject domain? It publishes on multidisciplinary sciences. Its impact factor is 0.7 (ie close to a t...

Arun_S

Taking Shiv's assertion at face value, can anyone figure out why heavyweights at BARC publish such papers that can be trashed by scientific analysis of fresh collage graduate?

It pulls down the credibility of the journal and authors; why would people and organizations do that consciously?

Arun_S

While I may not have published any nuclear paper, but can you or any one show how my reasoning disproving the basis for 20% fusion yield accuracy by reading the BARC paper that assumes that I know just enough of a new college level nuclear physics graduate? And I am only quoting BARC's own paper, In...

Arun_S

>>>One must commend R.Chidambaram, Anil Kakodkar and Sikka ji for such fantastic improvement in accuracy of yield estimation using radio-chem. Instead of better accuracy from +/- 7% they increase it 3 times to +/-20%. :twisted: Are these errors + / -7% and * / -20% over the SAME data or over DIFFER...

Arun_S

The possible sources of error in the measurement of fission yield are : assay of radioactivity (5-7%); nuclear data such as half life, gamma-ray branching intensity and fission yields (8%); and the error in integration which arises mainly due to the error in Rc (15%). In the assessment of fusion yi...

Arun_S

Arun_S, How did you arrive at the conclusion that just two holes were drilled? Pls tell me where in the paper they mention any more than 2 holes? From the bolded portions indicated in your BARC quote what I understand is that : From an earlier position (as centre), they drilled holes on the circumf...

Arun_S

Radio Chem analysis of TN in POK-II POST SHOT RADIOACTIVITY MEASUREMENTS ON SAMPLES EXTRACTED FROM THERMONUCLEAR TEST SITE By S.B.Manohar, B.S.Tomar, S.S.Rattan, V.K.Shukla, V.V.Kulkarni and Anil Kakodkar This will be called S-I Radio Chem. As I reviewed the paper I found few serious problems: 1) C...

Arun_S

BARC had befuddled POK-1 with yield claims ranging from 12 kt to 8 kt (again a ratio of 66%). So very convenient for Shakti-1 too: 45 kt versus 30 kt (~66%) real yield of S1. Also note that On 11 May 1998 BARC reported 45 kt +/- 3kT yield (using close in sensors) Notice the +/- tolerance of 7% only....

Arun_S

Very well presented news article from Frontline (Volume 26 - Issue 19 :: Sep. 12-25, 2009)
Pokhran row

R. RAMACHANDRAN

The controversy over the yields of the Pokhran-II nuclear tests still rages, with specialists continuing to question the DAE’s conclusions.

Arun_S

This thread is for discussing breaking news and discussion related to technical aspects of POK-II ( I.e. What they intended to achieve in May 1998 versus what was achieved). URL for those news report can be posted on this thread. The forthcoming talk at IDSA by Dr. S.K. Sikka should be discussed the...

Arun_S

As Narayanan spelled out the rules for this thread, to keep the discussion at a higher plane this thread should be about The Pros and Cons of Nuclear Testing in 2009 and Beyond. Those who argue for tests should defend that as a priority that overrides the many obvious "cons" and other nati...

Arun_S

Thanks. Goes on to show that India needs to have at least 3 to 5 times as many A3SL missiles as the Russian missile weapon. IOW one full Arihant is only equal to one missile tube on Russian Boomer. Or Conversely to equal deterrence of one Russian Boomer submarine India needs 12 to 20 Arihants. Could...

Arun_S

Another important point,that the K-15 has as suspected,a greater range of " 700-1000 km" mentioned. Thank you Philip-saar for pointing it out. So this 'deyhati' bhayyia's simulation based prediction seems to be again correct. Long time ago Onida's had an advertisement: "Neighbor's en...

Arun_S

Pls note that:
Weapon = Vehicle + Payload.

Any info on mass of the Russian payload that yields 100-150 kT each?

Since Indian payload is far different (in terms of weight) the A3-SL weapon will IMHO be in a different league and be the underdog (or shall I say frog range).

Arun_S

I have never seen N guru so vicious on attacking a poster. It is indeed a one more BRF low. I had also said on occasions that Rja Ram garu is like GK Reddy of Hindu in good ol days. But nothing below that. This is now a new low. I like N guru's scathing humor but it was mostly reserved for the dese...

Arun_S

But this is something that caught my attention. Can someone shed some light. The three smaller fission tests were totally devoted to producing thermo nuclear warhead s and these were scientific in nature and likelihood of getting another chance to repeat the tests, were remote. Thats the pry withou...

Arun_S

In which case the 200KT is again an unusable liability compared to having five 20KT "fizzles" or "fyoozzles" ( I have learned from you that one one 200KT is probably lighter and more compact than ten 20KTs) that can be nicely distributed among 5 targets spread over a 50 or 100 m...

Arun_S

\quote="Kanson"] And I do remember Adm. Menon talking abt 12 MIRV for K-15 ./quote] Pls no serious jokes on this thread, some one can die from it. :twisted: Hahaha, I dont know who is the joker here, the one who babble without seeing what was written in the article or the one who dabbled ...

Arun_S

Maybe DAE should invite PKI and Santhanam to look at the data and how they have arrived at the conclusion. That is assuming that this has not been done earlier. Unless proven otherwise, I take it that Santhanam and PKI speak what they speak because they already have access to the data at BARC , hav...

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