Bharat Rakshak

Arun_S

Arun - perhaps it's time to explain your views on the 700-1000kg Agni payloads ? IIRC I never stated that a pure fission 20-25 KT will weigh 700-1000 kgs. It would conservatively weigh in the range of about 225-250 Kgs. If they fine tune the design, they could even get it under 200 KG. But, if they...

Arun_S

No-no. What is the feasibility of a 100kt FBF from scratch based on S-I primary? All evidence shows that one worked. I agree 200kt might need proofing. S1 primary was a "very simple" FBF config. It's doubtful if such a configuration would yield with some level of confidence more than 50 -...

Arun_S

Ramana: 200 kt FBF design will not necessarily yield 100 kt if it fails, and there are many things that can go wrong. One could well get as low 10-20 kt (depending how much fissile material there is). So, setting up a 2-axis radiographic hydrodynamic facility (essentially 2 large and advanced Flash ...

Arun_S

One great thing about Santhanam's comments is that Wallace, Tellis et al were dead wrong about the yield. Absolutely correct. NPA can eat some "Chana" {horse-gram} made of iron ;) I won't comment too much about Tellis lest my personal views get in the way (he referred to my work as "...

Arun_S

As an aside, gratuitous comments of what you heard SFC thinks of the weapons makers are not germaine to this discussion. And your following statement was germane and not gratuitous ! Incidentally, Santhanam was not universally respected within the armed forces. My first encounter with his name was ...

Arun_S

7. My (revised guess) is that S1 was meant to be 500kt-1MT device in which even the boosted primary fizzled leading to FBF yield of 17kt instead of 40-50kt and 2-4kt fusion yield instead of 200kt fusion yield with minor yields from spark plug and tertiary. Boosted primary did not fizzle. Even Santa...

Arun_S

Was away for a good 20 hrs, and lot of bytes has flown in the thread. In the limited time I will respond to very few things. Sanjay is largely correct in this assessment. I will nit-pick on some where he is not correct/accurate or add my observations: Some of this some of you know and I also apologi...

Arun_S

Perils of minimal deterrence Bharat Karnad 24 Sep 2009 Perils of minimal deterrence India is lucky that in the decade since the 1998 tests when the Indian government trumpeted the country as a ‘nuclear weapon state’ boasting of thermonuclear armaments in its inventory, no country called its bluff. ...

Arun_S

:( Dear teacher please please don't let my grades slip...... have compassion! Of course the common sense answer is if 27kt fizzle created cracks then 45kt would have at least leveled high percentage of homes, and 60% certainly would have taken it to Rasaatal. Also the Ramdevra village would have go...

Arun_S

Congratulation to all in ISRO and partner companies whose effort made this a successful mission. There is an adage I used to read as kid when I walked up across AFS-Begumpet, to teh new project area: The more you sweat in peace, the less you bleed in war. We should thus recognize all the effort put ...

Arun_S

Reminds me of:

Jisnay Lakhon Haseen Dekhay Ho, Uski Niyat Kharab Kaya Hogi?

and

Haath Kangan Tou Aarsi Kya,
Padhay Likhay Ko Farsi Kya.

Arun_S

N^3: Time Domain Reflectometry

Arun_S

The key here is security and backdoor access to network routers that is provided to intelligence agencies of respectibe nations. This could have been a repeat of Sankya Vahini (Read B.Ramans article in SAAG) albeit 100,000 times worse. It is quite likely that input from some BR members helped modify...

Arun_S

The key here is security and backdoor access to network routers that is provided to intelligence agencies of respectibe nations. This could have been a repeat of Sankya Vahini (Read B.Ramans article in SAAG) albeit 100,000 times worse. It is quite likely that input from some BR members helped modify...

Arun_S

Just that I have my own sources that I can cross check from. That also means I may know there were more than 2 measurement data source apart from Accelerometer & CORRTEX, but then I wont put that on forum. Then I suppose we have to take your word for it and not follow the BRF tradition of cross...

Arun_S

Arun_S, So you'd take the word of a journalist like Manoj Joshi who has no technology writing experience over the word of G. Balachandran in a matter like this?? Just that I have my own sources that I can cross check from. That also means I may know there were more than 2 measurement data source ap...

Arun_S

Splitting atoms, not hairs - G. Balachandran http://www.hindustantimes.com/Splitting-atoms-not-hairs/H1-Article1-456942.aspx There are a number of ways of estimating nuclear test yields. Some on-site, some off-site; some off-site estimates that require data on the geology of the test site, and some...

Arun_S

Of course, some people will find some "great strategy" behind withholding information like this till Sept. 2009. Not to dispute on the technical points in your post but this same argument can be used regarding KS going public in 2009, while earlier supporting the nuclear deal and saying I...

Arun_S

Sanjay wrote:Arun_S - have you made a bomb of any kind - petrol, Molotov cocktail or any such device ?.

Sounds like qualification question, I presume Chidambram and Sikka made great strides in petrol bum, Molotov cocktail or any such device before graduating to TN bum?

Arun_S

Ramana rightly summed it up earlier as following: I read the Sikka article. Its the same old fitting new constants form world over to get the results they want . Earlier they used Nevada data, Now he wants to use Algerian data. He was supposed to be the S-I designer. He could have given us confidenc...

Arun_S

Spectral defence R. RAMACHANDRAN S.K. Sikka, a scientist involved in Pokhran-II, shows how the U.S. calculations of yield of the thermonuclear device were way off the mark. Interesting revelation by S.K.Sikka, not directly but by via a newspaper reporter; This after canceling IDSA talk to "By ...

Arun_S

Bharat Karnad in his book refer to 150-200 kT fbf and I asked him for the basis of that. Was he extrapolating S1 primary for this scale up? Or a new design? Just got this reply: I took at face value what R Chidambaram has been saying over the past decade to senior most Indian govt officials and mili...

Arun_S

No need for any more tests: DST Secretary Posting in full T. Ramasami, Secretary, Department of Science and Technology, on Monday said there was no need for yet another thermonuclear test, as the Pokhran-II data had demonstrated its “designed impact.” He was talking to The Hindu at Kundrakudi, near...

Arun_S

First get TN going, even if a 250-300 kt weighs 500 kgs. Then talk about getting it on PJ-10. You may want to peek into its nose cone to see how small that space for the bomb is, much less a TN bomb. And if you want BA RC to make it, don't count on it. according to Santhanam with whom you have agree...

Arun_S

While KS latest interview has been reported here many times, I found the following transcription in economic times odd. http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Politics/Nation/India-lacks-deterrence-Santhanam/articleshow/5040401.cms According to Mr Santhanam, the hydrogen bomb test, which was the secon...

Arun_S

Arun_S, I have read that a few grams of tritium/deuterium (gas mixture) injected in the core, results in a 2-3x boost for even older fission designs. If only things were as easy as stated in the websites, Pakis would have had bigger boom balls then Indian in 1998. What can I say except that those w...

Arun_S

The question is that you may not be able to maximize scalability of the FBF to 10fold the basic fission yield without a dynamic test. You might certainly be able to double or even triple it without difficulty . I do not know what is the basis/substance behind to claim "without difficulty"...

Arun_S

A few news reports of the KS and AP press interviews: Chandigarh Tribune: http://www.tribuneindia.com/2009/20090922/main3.htm Santhanam says it again: Pokhran-II a fizzle Hits back at NSA, claims data could’ve been fudged Ashok Tuteja Tribune News Service New Delhi, September 21 So he does say the ...

Arun_S

1998 thermonuclear test was a dud: Santhanam 21 Sep 2009 08:57:42 PM IST NEW DELHI: Rebutting National Security Advisor M.K. Narayanan's assertions, K. Santhanam, the scientist who was involved in India's nuclear tests in 1998, Monday reiterated that the thermonuclear device exploded by India had n...

Arun_S

Shiv - way too much is being made of omissions of bomb yields in op-ed articles. Just because somebody didn't mention - say 10 kiloton weapons - it does not mean they don't exist. Santhanam seems to have claimed 25 kt -27KT for S1 and 20-25kt for S2. In addition, TN devices have been designed with ...

Arun_S

http://www.hindu.com/2009/09/21/stories/2009092155800900.htm Deterrence and explosive yield K. Subrahmanyam and V.S. Arunachalam Important determinants The role of the Indian nuclear weapons is to deter others using nuclear weapons against us. It can perform that role so long as the retaliatory for...

Arun_S

Regarding 25 kT pure fission. Email reply three days ago from K.Santhanam reconfirmed: /quote] The fission bomb of May 98 had an estimated yield of 20 - 25 kT. No boosting./quote] So with LiD to boost , how much conservatively it can scale up to ? What is the weight of this pure fission device ? Th...

Arun_S

Regarding 25 kT pure fission.

Email reply three days ago from K.Santhanam reconfirmed:

The fission bomb of May 98 had an estimated yield of 20 - 25 kT. No boosting.

Arun_S

http://www.hindu.com/2009/09/21/stories/2009092155800900.htm Deterrence and explosive yield K. Subrahmanyam and V.S. Arunachalam Reading it sounded repetitious to me, having hear this argument few years ago. His other arguments during the time on what US seeks from India in the Strategic Partnershi...

Arun_S

http://www.hindu.com/2009/09/21/stories/2009092155800900.htm Deterrence and explosive yield K. Subrahmanyam and V.S. Arunachalam I am totally shocked to see who K. Subrahmanyam has chosen to be his illustrious co-author. A very sad day for India and Subrahmanyam. Does anyone recall Sankhya Vahini t...

Arun_S

No I am saying a very different thing, I am saying China will take notice once we have sufficient capability to destroy some portion of their country. Fizzle vs sizzle makes all the difference as it changes the law of known capabilities. How would you define sufficient capability? Would that be in ...

Arun_S

100 kg for pure fission is overtly optimistic, few times of the quoted figure is more realistic. I think there is some post somewhere in which a "minister" refers to our strategic payload as 100-250kg. Also I am referring to "device" and not to the "bomb". Even TN devi...

Arun_S

Raj Malhotra wrote:I agree, our (non)credible (almost nil) deterrant is now based on pure fission 10-25kt bombs of say 100kg (device) weight.

100 kg for pure fission is overtly optimistic, few times of the quoted figure is more realistic.

Arun_S

Somehow, it all comes down to a malaise in the Indian psyche where some haphazard and nebulous conception of something (like a status, an event or an object) automatically translates into a reality. The delusion magnifies till reality slaps them hard in the face! Then, they try to argue that they we...

Arun_S

Right, I got/know that interference approach. It's common in acoustics. And as Shaurya just said, PKI did peg POK-1 at 8 - 10KT. That would be consistent with at least some (the more robust) of the two calculations reported in Shaardula's cited article. But, nevertheless, I am shocked at how primit...

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