Bharat Rakshak

somnath

Shreeman You are right, the airport express is to CP only. It's very good - generally ask the car to wait at Shivaji Stadium, and I am in my office in CP in 30 min flat! I don't know why more people don't use the service. Anyways, you are right - it isn't perfect. I was only making the point that ma...

somnath

A part of your impression is surely knowing how to navigate to T3 and through T3, but running into these same hurdles at changi or incheon. I admitted this up front, its great if you know the language, fit with crowd and both know and are able to go where you want. Shreeman, I think you are being s...

somnath

^^a lot of airports are "silent" airports, nothing too bad, signages in Mumbai are pretty good.

Aero bridges - yes, part of the system to exit from the aircraft to the exit gate

somnath

As a frequent flyer, I would say that there are 5 important variables in an airport: 1. Check in counters, how many and how quickly, incl security 2. Quality of toilets 3. Immigration speed, for international flights 4. Speed of exit from the aircraft to the gate 5. Access to the city Quality of sho...

somnath

Commercial viability of airports is linked to viability of air travel. Of course, a commercially thriving city will attract a lot more travellers. But even in BIMARU states, people have to travel. the question is whether air travel is cheap enough. The big variable there is cost of aviation fuel, ta...

somnath

A_Gupta, Its a complex issue, and I am the first to admit there are no easy answers. But we need to understand a few factors with clear eyes: 1. Terms of trade in agri are irrevocably on a downward trajectory. 2. Land is as much a "psychological" asset as it is a real one. There are huge c...

somnath

^^^Arun Jaitley doesnt say anything to contradict the point I am making. Irrigation is of course important to agriculture - its ad oculos. The issue is that agriculture has been suffering from negative terms of trade for decades now, its an irreversible process. The way govt has been trying to addre...

somnath

China has ZERO chance of getting Reserve Currency Status and there should be no illusion there has very little to do with economy and has much to do with how the Economic Structure ATM is dominated with Western Banks and Institutions "Reserve currency" status isnt something that is "...

somnath

The structural issue with Indian agriculture is one of framentation. Too many people cultivating too small patches of land. In the process they are taking the kind of entrepreneurial risks that only large enterprises can take. Reform in agri should start with abolition of land ceilings. We need to a...

somnath

The proposal by HAL for orders for 40-80 MK1A is logical. Keeping assembly line idle is not very bright idea. These gap filler 40 jets will keep HAL busy, make sure that transition from MK1 to MK2 will be smooth as far as manufacturing is concerned. 80 more LCAs would come in for USD 4 billion (@ 5...

somnath

^^^The Indian corporate bond market is quite shallow - there is hardly any meaningful issuance above 3-5 years (barring some Tier II issuances by banks). Best source of data on bonds in India is FIMMDA. http://www.fimmda.org/index.aspx On capex, we should look at numbers beyond announcements. The Ra...

somnath

2. Overhang of the US Fed decision in Q4. I'm skeptical they'll do anything now, particularly after the Chinese big bang devaluation act that reeks of mild panic in the middle kingdom. It doesn't affect the US directly to the extend that only ~10% of US exports go to PRC, but a strengthening dollar...

somnath

^^^CPs are <1 year instruments, and are competition to working capital lines given by banks. Expansion of the short term bond market is a function of the general street view on INR bonds, which is bullish. It isnt a reflection of enhanced investment demand - the only source of funding long term inve...

somnath

^^^Policy making (fiscal and monetary) need to counter-cyclical, not pro-cyclical. The issue with UPA was not that it spent public money, the issue first was the "quality" of the spend somewhat, and second, they didnt pull back into counter-cyclical posture once growth started again (in 20...

somnath

This is very good news indeed. An improvement in NPA ratio and better flow of credit is key to the industrial revival. The SBI results are actually confirmation of continuing stress in the economy - SBI is a proxy for the Indian economy, being ~20% of the banking system. The topline looked better d...

somnath

^^^Not going to happen. Simply put, there is no money. Around 70-75% of capital budgets of each service is committed for paying instalments on contracted platforms. The balance is simply not enough to make commitments on new contracts. This is as big an issue for delays in procurements AND money ret...

somnath

Many thanks Somnath ji. THough INR is not convertible, the idea I wanted to convey (for the sake of simplicity) is we can confuse 2 very distinct ideas and assume both are identical. They are identical from the perspective of the ability to repay the debts. However, they are very different when we ...

somnath

^^^ATMs are not "profit centres" for banks - interchange fees from txns dont justify the cost of running the ATM (real estate, security, electricyt) even on high street locations. Banks typically have ATMs for 2 reasons: 1. Create stickiness for accounts opened with the bank - CASA balance...

somnath

Thats inaccurate. Every central bank has assets and reserves. Assets are things like Gold. Reserves are things denominated in foreign currencies. NO central bank holds foreign currency. They hold bonds in that currency. THe purpose of reserves is to buy your own currency (for RBI - INR) overseas wh...

somnath

Thanks! In Mumbai now...

somnath

^^^Largely agree. But the fundamental issue was that C-DOT remained without an instittuional basis. It wasnt a company that would have going concern commercial objectives, it wasnt a research lab that would (under suitable guidance) keep innovating for the next level. It is symptomatic of the ad hoc...

somnath

It might be slightly OT. But I would like to post some material related to Indian Telecom industry which covers both PSU and Private which was catering to both civil and military. One person who strived in this area is Padma Bhushan Shri. SAM Pitroda. C-DOT is yet another instance of national missi...

somnath

^^^I was recently talking to someone in a company that works closely with the defence establishment. It seems that the Rafale is a "done deal", and will be signed in this financial year.

somnath

4 carriers is way beyond India's affordability quotient, now or in the foreseeable future. Large projects need appropriate long term planning. Committing to a large, capital intensive project means that larger portions of the capex budget would be "committed" out in the years to come. If t...

somnath

^^It is. But again ordered in anaemic production run of 4. I reckon part of the issue is how much is left in the bank after funding all the gold plated multi role platforms. This is where we need to have the right direction from a national security planning architecture. Unfortunately this is still ...

somnath

^^^China's GDP is 4.5 times ours. Whichever way we cut the pie, they will have a lot more resources to spend. We need to be smart about the whole thing. Fortunately, China has to compete with the US for the control of Asia. We can build a coalition of "sum of parts" that will be far bigger...

somnath

That is a plan of the IN , They decided not to put Shtil-1 on it and wait for Barak-8 and next major refit.

French CDG have Aster SAM on board , so IN wont be the first to have it either.

Would be a waste of money. If the CBG loses its destroyer screen, then the mission is compromised anyways.

somnath

^^^it would be a waste of money to have an area SAM in an AC. The ship will move around in a flotilla of destroyers and frigates with the same SAMs. Amit, the question of comparing the VikA with vikrant isn't fair - the former is a cruiser design, not an optimised carrier designed as such. At the ti...

somnath

Viv There is no use fitting an FCR is the missile isn't. But more importantly, Why should an AC embark an area defence SAM? The Kolkatas will provide a higher radius defensive bubble around the ship with their Barak8. Absence of a last ditch defence against a stray missile coming through the bubble ...

somnath

The Sukanya class model is great for building up numbers. If I am not mistaken, the Sukanya fleet was funded by ONGC. A large ocean going ship (~3000 tonnes) with enough endurance, a decent volume search radar, gun and either a SAM or SSM fit. Built in numbers to plant our flag across a large expans...

somnath

^^^Govt estimates on expenditure need to be taken with large doses of salt. They are typically a moving target. You just need to compare the Budget Estimates, Revised Estimates and Actuals presented in every Union Budget. The variations tend to make the exercise itself quite superfluous. Given our l...

somnath

In economics there is a concept of "sunk costs". Decision making should always be forward looking, not basis costs already incurred. Vik-A is a reality, whether we spent 2.5 billion or 4 billion is really academic. We should make the best use of the platform that we can. Any new decision t...

somnath

^^^Its a trial balloon. Russia has no money to operate a CBG around a super carrier, not with oil @ 50 dollars.

More importantly, they have no strategic need to operate one. Even the Soviet Union, which tended to copy everything that the US did, didnt build a carrier fleet.

Its a waste of time.

somnath

^^^Most importantly,wars (rather strategic objectives) are won by defining one's objectives well, and preparing to achieve them. The first is the most important piece - the Pakis have traditionally been quite bad at that. Inter services tugs of war over resources are legendary everywhere, but in Ind...

somnath

^^^Someone has not done the maths. Or the induction schedule runs into decades rather than years. IN has large committed capex spends on account of existing inductions - IAC-I, P8I, Choppers, new Mig29Ks, Scorpenes. Has someone told IN that there will be money for so many gold plated frigates (7 P17...

somnath

The biggest issue with Vik-A is that it leaves IN with a legacy carrier aircraft, with limited upgrade scope. IAC II, whatever the final config, will have a different aircraft. Which means that IN will operate there different fighter types, including the LCA, for the next 30 years. I don't think any...

somnath

^^^Vik-A will serve for 3 decades, maybe. But in what form is an open question. IN has made Viraat soldier on for 50 years and some more. But question is what/how much is the operational effectiveness of the carrier. Whether Vik-A will be able to be consistently deployed with its full complement of ...

somnath

The issue isnt just a simple one of Vishal v/s Vikrant Mark II. From a strategic standpoint, having a naval fleet (actually a military force) centred around large, sophisticated carriers require doctrinal decision-making. It is not just expensive to build large carriers, it is also very expensive to...

somnath

Vikrant mark II or Vishal, the issue isnt about "reinvesting back" in the Indian economy. As things stand, that will be minimal in eitehr case. Shipyard work is the lowest value added in the entire value chain of warship building. Bulk of the cost of a warship is on radars, electronics, ai...

somnath

Pipavav isn't an Anil Ambani venture, he is merely the current owner, having acquired controlling stake a few months back. The venture was started by a guy called Nikhil Gandhi, well known in the maritime business for years. It was set up nearly 10 years back, in expectations of large govt orders to...

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