2021 Five State Elections

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OmkarC
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby OmkarC » 07 May 2021 12:10

I dont think mocking forumnites for expressing genuine concern over the massive Hindu refugee exodus addresses a solution here. Some folks are merely questioning this blindsided bullishness w/ regards to the way central govt is handling the situation.. it was the same during exit polls, where everyone was asked to blindly trust Dr.BB and even mild skepticism was brashly dismissed.

Regarding the trivialization of these atrocities as if they are just some noise on social media, here's an article from a non-left outlet :
https://www.opindia.com/2021/05/1000-hi ... l-reports/

Regarding a claim that was divined by one of the posters that there has been equal retribution, please share your sources.. would like to know if perhaps 1000 Bangladeshi/TMC families have also fled for Bangladesh as a result of "massive retaliation" by Hindutva forces that's being peddled as reality here..

chetak
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby chetak » 07 May 2021 12:18

wonder who has paid for this full paid page ad.

with the urban naxals dominating in the management of the Hindu, the cheeni cannot be far behind



Image

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby Aditya_V » 07 May 2021 13:08

OmkarC wrote:I dont think mocking forumnites for expressing genuine concern over the massive Hindu refugee exodus addresses a solution here. Some folks are merely questioning this blindsided bullishness w/ regards to the way central govt is handling the situation.. it was the same during exit polls, where everyone was asked to blindly trust Dr.BB and even mild skepticism was brashly dismissed.

Regarding the trivialization of these atrocities as if they are just some noise on social media, here's an article from a non-left outlet :
https://www.opindia.com/2021/05/1000-hi ... l-reports/

Regarding a claim that was divined by one of the posters that there has been equal retribution, please share your sources.. would like to know if perhaps 1000 Bangladeshi/TMC families have also fled for Bangladesh as a result of "massive retaliation" by Hindutva forces that's being peddled as reality here..


The only question why we do not pile on TMC, Media, Left, INC and international ecosystem for not bringing tMC murderers to book, BJP is putting pressure while media is justifying the crimes with Glee with police and lawyer judicial backing.

Why are soo many giving the murderers a free pass rather than outrage-> what action can be taken against Media, Babus and others who are facilitating these crimes

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby Primus » 07 May 2021 17:38

Rudradev wrote:To all fellow Rakshaks doing :(( :(( under the impression that defenceless BJP karyakartas are getting killed with impunity in WB...or for that matter, in any opposition-governed state... as the helpless recipients of a one-sided pogrom:

I have it on good authority, from people who are in a position to know, that you are mistaken about this.

The Sangh Parivar has many many different types of workers & volunteers. A large number of them are not keyboard warriors who wear clean shirt-pant (like us).

There are people who stand ready to do all kinds of jobs, respond (with interest) in any type of situation. Bajrang Dal, Yuva Vahini, many similar organisations. And they are everywhere in India.

You know how it is with the One Particular Community. They like to portray themselves as perpetual victims (in media narratives and public messaging) while behaving as eternal ghazis (where it counts). The benefits of that approach have been learned & internalized by our side as well. Enough said.


RD ji, perhaps you can give us more details that would make it less painful for us? So far all that I hear and see on SM (yes, agree there may be some amplification going on) is the horrors of partition being repeated in WB.

I believe Bajrang Dal and similar Hindu outfits were either disbanded or defanged completely by the current leadership of the BJP. Is that true?

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby Primus » 07 May 2021 17:39

Read on WA that on five seats recounting was done and all five were then declared for the BJP, any truth to this claim? Shuvendu Adhikari is said to be moving the courts for recounting in many places.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby siddhu » 07 May 2021 18:15

If COVID finishes by 2022. By 2024 everything will be forgotten.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby darshan » 07 May 2021 18:36

Statewide response can only come internally and there isn't much that one should rely on the center. Long chain. When you have 60/40 mark. Everyday needs to be a fight and not palayana. This is irrespective of BJP.

BJP doesn't have leaders from the top to bottom and that problem is very well known. Few that can lead are going to be very self constrained and risk aware. Of course only BJP is to be blamed to not have more leaders to not be in such situations.

BJP is also the party that fails to mourn its dead across the India. Every BJP office should be increasing awareness of their dead and what's happening in other areas. You are your own news channel to broadcast atrocities.

This is a digital age. Where are all the uploads by thousands? Upload them on the social media and let social media block them. Then go after BJP for not blocking social media platforms. Same with the FIRs. Send them to all medias in traceable manners. All foreign entities. All corporations. Courts. Send send send and upload all the traceable evidences.

End of the day BJP is a political party. Ask your local BJP officers about why they aren't doing many things. This will allow you to gauge their secularism and it will allow them to gauge you. For example, no one in GJ asks about why we no longer see crimes against Hindus in local news papers since 2002. Crimes are certainly there but no longer in front of your eyes. Similarly there are no reports about distressed areas either. So on and so forth. After 2002, within GJ, Hindus fell asleep and GJ BJP took advantage of it. Whose fault? BJP or Hindus? Before 2002, decades of riots had generated clear cut ways of dealing with muslims. They were irrespective of BJP/RSS/VHP/etc. Who dismantled them after 2002? Hindus and not BJP. It was Hindus who ended up believing all the fake narratives from BIF and fell asleep. Many outsiders and new generations don't realize degradation of the situation allowed within GJ by asleep Hindus. In relative situation, GJ looks better compared to other parts of India but in absolute there's a huge fall. What used to be a well constrained problem before 2002 has now become NP hard. Even GJ Hindus would have to flee in direct action day as a result of this breakdown over last 20 years. Well defined ways before 2002 allowed you to bound the problem to put on statewide effort within three days of arrival of hordes. Presently it's no longer feasible. Meanwhile, taqqia has allowed muslims to make inroads in all walks of GJ lives in last 20 years. An example of such thing from Bangluru was just posted. Such a thing would have never been allowed before 2002 in GJ with clear cut ways of separation and not falling asleep.

If Hindus don't ask about local Hindu problems everyday to their politicians, then no politician is going to come and save you.

I have yet to see GJ wide BJP campaign to acknowledge the dead in WB. Are GJ Hindus going to wake up and ask their local BJP about this or not? No one knows.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby Jay » 07 May 2021 19:43

siddhu wrote:If COVID finishes by 2022. By 2024 everything will be forgotten.


The key is to end it in 2021. Modi govt's one and single focus should be to defeat this pandemic in 2021 and let the message play out for next two and half years. No more half measures.
Last edited by Jay on 08 May 2021 00:17, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby Ambar » 07 May 2021 20:15

Primus wrote:I believe Bajrang Dal and similar Hindu outfits were either disbanded or defanged completely by the current leadership of the BJP. Is that true?


Not true, they are very much around and still just as disorganized as ever. Don't for a minute think that the leaders of some of these rag tag outfits have the long term best interest of the nation and hindus in their minds, some prominent leaders of such outfits have worked with BIF to further their agenda. Praveen Togadia was sidelined by Modi and BJP because he was openly trying to harm BJP's chances in the state of GJ well before Modi became the PM. His nephew was one of the organizers of the patidar reservation agitation. These days he is busy drawing a wedge between various factions of sangh with the other self-proclaimed "hindu hruday samrat" Su Swamyji. Similarly Rama Sene has worked with INC before elections to create ruckus in the name of hindus so BJP gets the flak. These are not the "friends" BJP or hindus need, organizations like RSS have survived almost a century because they have long term best interest of hindus and India in their mind, they are not in it for temporary power or money.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby Rudradev » 07 May 2021 23:02

Primus wrote:
Rudradev wrote:To all fellow Rakshaks doing :(( :(( under the impression that defenceless BJP karyakartas are getting killed with impunity in WB...or for that matter, in any opposition-governed state... as the helpless recipients of a one-sided pogrom:

I have it on good authority, from people who are in a position to know, that you are mistaken about this.

The Sangh Parivar has many many different types of workers & volunteers. A large number of them are not keyboard warriors who wear clean shirt-pant (like us).

There are people who stand ready to do all kinds of jobs, respond (with interest) in any type of situation. Bajrang Dal, Yuva Vahini, many similar organisations. And they are everywhere in India.

You know how it is with the One Particular Community. They like to portray themselves as perpetual victims (in media narratives and public messaging) while behaving as eternal ghazis (where it counts). The benefits of that approach have been learned & internalized by our side as well. Enough said.


RD ji, perhaps you can give us more details that would make it less painful for us? So far all that I hear and see on SM (yes, agree there may be some amplification going on) is the horrors of partition being repeated in WB.

I believe Bajrang Dal and similar Hindu outfits were either disbanded or defanged completely by the current leadership of the BJP. Is that true?


Primus ji,

Unfortunately I can't provide details. Not many were provided to me either.

What happened was that I was concerned enough with the perception of one-sided slaughter of BJP karyakartas in WB to approach some people I knew.

I was told that it is just that-- a perception. Yes, TMC does have some home-ground advantage specifically in South Bengal where there are a lot of illegals that Didi has gathered into jihadi militias just for this purpose. But it is by no means a one-sided affair. Contrary to the stereotype of the Bengali, local Hindus are not about to let another Noakhali or 1971 simply happen to them in the last sliver of the land they call home.

As far as the Bajrang Dal, VHP, and others are concerned: the Sangh Parivar is a very different beast today than what it was even 5-6 years ago, let alone when Modi was CM of Gujarat. At one time it was highly decentralized with different centers of power focusing on different types of issues. Those were the days when a Pravin Togadia could nurse his own political ambitions outside the cadre of the BJP. That is not the case anymore.

Think of it this way: have you heard of "rebels" raising independent banners within the BJP since 2014, the way Congress and third-party rebels used to all the time during the Narasimha Rao, Janata Dal, and UPA (Manmohan-Sonia) administrations? Does anyone dare go against Modi and Shah like for example Sharad Pawar or Mamata Banerjee once did against INC HQ? No, it's a lot more like INC was during the Indira Gandhi days.

Amit Shah's greatest asset is his ability to enforce iron discipline throughout the parivar, and this is precisely why Modi has elevated him. The entire thing has become much more centralized in its command-and-control structure. Ambitious leaders of these peripheral outfits who were identified as potential troublemakers have been sidelined, yes-- but that doesn't mean the organizations themselves have been disbanded, far less defanged. They've been brought under the control of BJP local and state units and are deployed as necessary. Sometimes they've been allowed to retain their independent identities and banners, but this again is for strategic reasons.

Of course there were recalcitrants who have been purged, some of whom have become accessories to the BIF (like Pramod Muthalik and his "Sri Rama Sene" going and bashing up people in Mangalore pubs). But that is inevitable when you conduct a cleanup. By and large the whole operation functions in a much more unified way than previously. There is no way the BJP could have won election in state after state to become the single dominant party in India, as it has, without a quantum leap in organizational capacity.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby chetak » 07 May 2021 23:18

Jay wrote:
siddhu wrote:If COVID finishes by 2022. By 2024 everything will be forgotten.


The key is end 2021. Modi govt one and single focus is defeat this in 2021 and let the message play out for next two and half years. No more half measures.


the coming third wave is likely to hit the kids more than adults.

people are not so easily going to forget dead kids as many may die.

so, anything being forgotten by 2024 is at best, iffy.

let's hope for the best and the govt plans well and has adequate stockpiles and responds faster than it did for waves 1 and 2

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby KL Dubey » 07 May 2021 23:22

BJP under Modi and Shah is in the process of establishing a long-term "rule" over all of India. The 65 years between 1947-2014 were wasted. Now it is barely 7 years of the BJP project, and yet a huge amount has been accomplished politically, economically, and militarily. Sometimes the results are not obvious. Many long-term projects in all these spheres are ongoing.

As I mentioned many times before: hunker down and support Modi.

If you feel very strongly about some issue that you think he has not taken proper action, TWEET/EMAIL directly to Modi/Shah/PMO/HMO/MyGov instead. What could be more direct than that in a country of 1.4 billion ?

Venting here serves no purpose. But - if the posters who are criticizing BJP/Modi/Shah can write down each point cogently (come up with a well-edited paragraph or two), and then use each of these to start mass tweet campaigns (we are talking in the millions, not 500 people) - then it could be productive. Otherwise, you are wasting your time and energy. I see the same predictable posts after any state election defeat.

BTW, this thread seems to need a lock since the "5 state" elections are over.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby Vips » 08 May 2021 03:21

chetak wrote:
Jay wrote:
The key is end 2021. Modi govt one and single focus is defeat this in 2021 and let the message play out for next two and half years. No more half measures.


the coming third wave is likely to hit the kids more than adults.

people are not so easily going to forget dead kids as many may die.

so, anything being forgotten by 2024 is at best, iffy.

let's hope for the best and the govt plans well and has adequate stockpiles and responds faster than it did for waves 1 and 2


Worse come worse before elections in 2024 Modi should give money by direct transfer into bank accounts of the Farmers and the Poor. If god forbid he still does not win elections then at least the resources of his prudent governance will not be available to be spent on senseless schemes named after the Nehru/Gandhi cabal.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby Jay » 08 May 2021 03:43

Vips wrote:Worse come worse before elections in 2024 Modi should give money by direct transfer into bank accounts of the Farmers and the Poor. If god forbid he still does not win elections then at least the resources of his prudent governance will not be available to be spent on senseless schemes named after the Nehru/Gandhi cabal.


Absolutely. At this stage there is no point in not extending the doles to the people who have elected him. During the last 6 years we as a nation have gained strategically, but unfortunately there were some hefty missteps along the line which the voters forgave the administration. More work needs to be done to secure out vote bank for generations and frankly we are letting this crisis go to waste at this point. All the lives lost, economy down, and the tragedy aside, if Modi can deliver on the vaccines in the next 3-6 months and get the direct transfers going for Farmers and the Poor, this entire episode will be history, come 2024.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby ramana » 08 May 2021 03:50

...
If you feel very strongly about some issue that you think he has not taken proper action, TWEET/EMAIL directly to Modi/Shah/PMO/HMO/MyGov instead. What could be more direct than that in a country of 1.4 billion ?

Venting here serves no purpose. But - if the posters who are criticizing BJP/Modi/Shah can write down each point cogently (come up with a well-edited paragraph or two), and then use each of these to start mass tweet campaigns (we are talking in the millions, not 500 people) - then it could be productive. Otherwise, you are wasting your time and energy. I see the same predictable posts after any state election defeat....



Once the thread is locked write your points in calm language without polemics in the other thread.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby ramana » 08 May 2021 03:51

Will lock on Sunday.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby Primus » 08 May 2021 04:09

Rudradev wrote:
Primus wrote:
RD ji, perhaps you can give us more details that would make it less painful for us? So far all that I hear and see on SM (yes, agree there may be some amplification going on) is the horrors of partition being repeated in WB.

I believe Bajrang Dal and similar Hindu outfits were either disbanded or defanged completely by the current leadership of the BJP. Is that true?


Primus ji,

Unfortunately I can't provide details. Not many were provided to me either.

What happened was that I was concerned enough with the perception of one-sided slaughter of BJP karyakartas in WB to approach some people I knew.

I was told that it is just that-- a perception. Yes, TMC does have some home-ground advantage specifically in South Bengal where there are a lot of illegals that Didi has gathered into jihadi militias just for this purpose. But it is by no means a one-sided affair. Contrary to the stereotype of the Bengali, local Hindus are not about to let another Noakhali or 1971 simply happen to them in the last sliver of the land they call home.

/.....................


There is so much FUD on the WA channels and so many heartrending stories and videos that it is difficult to know what the truth on the ground is. It is good to know that the people at the top know what they are doing. It is true that the biggest challenge Dharmic entities face is an almost infinite number of Jaichands in the network. I have always said that we need our own warrior front to fight the multiple enemies within.

Putting aside the pandemic for a moment, I found the news out of WB even more distressing since that is entirely a man-made debacle that is being orchestrated by the mother of all Jaichands. It is a classic example of the destructive nature of Hindus against our own.

Back to the Chinese Pandemic, The Lancet has recently published a hatchet job on Modi and India re COVID that is doing the rounds. People I know are jumping up and down saying 'ah now we know the truth, the Emperor had no clothes indeed' and are thus celebrating India's soon to be demise in the view of the world. That these people are all close friends and Tam Brams no less is even more galling.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby sanjaykumar » 08 May 2021 04:32

The safed aadmi has excoriated the Indian. God is in his heaven. Indians have been perversely validated. :)

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby chanakyaa » 08 May 2021 06:47

Primus wrote:... It is true that the biggest challenge Dharmic entities face is an almost infinite number of Jaichands in the network. I have always said that we need our own warrior front to fight the multiple enemies within.

Putting aside the pandemic for a moment, I found the news out of WB even more distressing since that is entirely a man-made debacle that is being orchestrated by the mother of all Jaichands. It is a classic example of the destructive nature of Hindus against our own....

Primus ji, for any average nationalist (including below average armchair warrior like myself), it is quite natural to take the current headlines coming out of WB on its face value and be extremely agitated. Quite disturbing indeed. But from perspective of people in power in center (few, not all), the challenges presented by this map, forces one to think of alternative solutions to fix the "problem", and my guess is that the solution is sadly going to be "unorthodox". Many believe that such unorthodox solution must include firing up the krantikari bengalis who have been sleeping for decades, so they know the evil they are living with. It can't be done by the outsiders. Rest was succinctly summarized by the last the para of @Rudradev's post,

Rudradev wrote:...
You know how it is with the One Particular Community. They like to portray themselves as perpetual victims (in media narratives and public messaging) while behaving as eternal ghazis (where it counts). The benefits of that approach have been learned & internalized by our side as well. Enough said.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby KL Dubey » 08 May 2021 09:31

ramana wrote:
...
If you feel very strongly about some issue that you think he has not taken proper action, TWEET/EMAIL directly to Modi/Shah/PMO/HMO/MyGov instead. What could be more direct than that in a country of 1.4 billion ?

Venting here serves no purpose. But - if the posters who are criticizing BJP/Modi/Shah can write down each point cogently (come up with a well-edited paragraph or two), and then use each of these to start mass tweet campaigns (we are talking in the millions, not 500 people) - then it could be productive. Otherwise, you are wasting your time and energy. I see the same predictable posts after any state election defeat....



Once the thread is locked write your points in calm language without polemics in the other thread.


I assume that is an instruction to the doomsday posters, not to me. I have nothing else to write about this issue other than the above.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby chetak » 08 May 2021 14:36

Rsatchi wrote:My class-mate an Ex-Navy officer has sent some horrendous photos of post-poll violence!!
Mainstream media has completely ignored that because of the COVID
Complete disaster in Kar,
Nephew in B'lore says people are so scared of stepping out and catching infection.
Middle-class getting fleeced for treatment
Majority pissed off with BJP handling the crisis
Yeddi seems to be passing the buck to centre and unable to rein in dissidents
This has been a shit year for Bhakts/Modi/RSS and in turn for the BRFites
In all this all I can come up is the R Sagar Mahabharath title song : Yada Yadasi Dharmsya.........
Hope 2024 will slay all the BIF's and the shit heads!!!



In bangalore, people are loafing around as normal but all the action has moved to the side roads where the polis simply do not bother to go.

and on these side roads, people are moving about at all times of the day or night. street corner addas abound, girls on their evening walks, decked out in their finery, dogs out for a stroll, and a fairly large two wheeler traffic with an occasional car or two or three. Many shops are operating with shutters half open

these morons not only endanger others but are a danger to themselves too.

BTW, KAR does not have a particularly strong RSS culture.

The way these jokers are jockeying for advantage in the event of yeddy's departure and the factions that have already formed to cash in means that the BJP will split and the congis will walk in again with another huge ATM to plunder

Most BJP politicos are closet congi and JDS, actively scouting for opportunities to make good. It is only the fear of MAD that is stopping them. Money is still being made hand over fist but much of it has been outsourced to relatives and fixers

and, even as I post this, I can hear the continuous stream of vehicular traffic outside.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby Rahul M » 09 May 2021 03:06

This is Part I of the WB 2021 VS election analysis.
Link to Part-II
================
First of all I would like to admit that I underestimated TMC's hold on the votebank and had expected a comfortable BJP victory in WB. I am still perplexed somewhat but will try to piece together a coherent narrative that tries to explain what went wrong.

I see it as the 2009 moment for BJP in WB. Just like in 2009 we expected the country to vote for security in the aftermath of 26/11 and punish the guilty party, we expected WB to vote for safety and punish the one responsible for the insecurity. Yet, both times the populace decided to continue with the underperforming incumbent. BJP learnt from its mistake and came back strongly in 2014. Can we expect a repeat in WB2026?

Due to the size of the topic I will break this into multiple parts. Tentatively, I will focus on
a) the nature of the defeat (numbers etc)
b) the causes of the defeat
c) the way ahead.

Be warned though, I have some uncomfortable facts to report and many of you could feel cognitive dissonance. So, here it is :

Part I : The Nature of the Defeat
I have pulled the ECI data into spreadsheets and will do a detailed analysis, but first a look at overall trends.
Image
I would also add the LS 2014 data :

Code: Select all

      2014 vote    2014 seats
BJP       17%             2
LEFT     29.5%            2
TMC      39.3%            34
INC       9.6%            2

Theres an interesting trend to note here, BJP voteshare dropped dramatically in VS compared to LS, 7% drop between 2014 & 2016 and a smaller but still considerable 3% drop from LS2019 to VS2021. Is it a case of voters voting differently in LS & VS elections, as the TV pundits say ? Or a different penomenon ?
Please remember this trend,we will come back to it in the Causes for defeat part.

Now, as we can see, difference in TMC-BJP voteshare was only 3% in 2019. But while TMC managed to increase its vote % from 2019 by 4%,BJP lost 3% of its vote from 2019,leading to a staggering 10% vote difference vis-a-vis TMC ! :eek:
In a multi-cornered contest thats a massive lead,in fact BJPs seat tally could easily have been lower, for 22 of the 77 seats won by BJP have been won by slim leads of less than 5000 votes.

A look at Head-to-Head contests between BJP Vs TMC would make it clearer.

Code: Select all

      WonH2H      >50K+   >20K   <5K  -----> winning margins
BJP       74         1     20     22
TMC      201        35    138     13

The first two columns are enough to convince anyone this wasnt a close contest.In fact let me be brutally honest & call it what it is, an utter electoral rout.
The honesty is required because I am seeing a lot of unwarranted self-congratulatory back-slapping in BJP camp *we went from 3 to 77* and what not. The failure is conveniently explained away by blaming bengalis with little to no introspection of disastrous agendas, moronic candidate selection or incompetent leadership. Unfortunately, reality is this is an election BJP should have won, and won comfortably.
how so, you ask ? Look at this. BJP had a lead in 121 AC as per LS2019, all it needed to do was hold on to that & flip 30 odd seats from the remaining 170 odd to reach the magic figure of 148. 30 out of 170 !
Against a corrupt govt facing massive anti-incumbency & mismanagement of not one but two natural disasters.
Not only did they fail to do that, they lost voteshare and saw seat count come down by 30+ !
Image
VS 2021 results
Image

======================
To conclude :
a) BJP had a path to victory in WB
b) It failed, badly at that.

More later.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby Kati » 09 May 2021 04:14

Thanks RahulM-dada, for your detailed analysis.
Two important factors are coming forward for this debacle. This is after talking to a wide cross-section of the people:
The M factor was there to begin with, so that is not being here.
1. Bad candidate selection. This includes para-dropping candidates at constituencies who didn't have much to connect with the local people.
Local party units often revolted against candidate selections. Now, after the poll, many people are asking whether it was wise to field so many celebrities, because in rallies after rallies Mumtaz Banoo reminded people that these celebrities will leave you high and dry, but "only (she herself) would be around" to take care of them.
2. The other factor was/is the free dole outs - Rs. 2 kg of rice (though it is heavily subsidized by the center), but Mumtaz Banoo took credit for that, and that swayed a large number of rural . On top of it, there were Kanyasree, Rupasree, etc to move the women - young and old. ....

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby chetak » 09 May 2021 06:03

ramana wrote:Will lock on Sunday.



@RahulM ji and @Kati ji


this thread is due to shutdown today.

If you guys are doing a detailed analysis, thread closure could be postponed accordingly by ramana ji.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby Rahul M » 09 May 2021 09:31

Don't worry about it chetak ji.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby ramana » 09 May 2021 09:57

Let the analysis come.

No problem.

Some one can study TN also would be nice.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby venkat_kv » 10 May 2021 04:06

Mods can move this post if they feel its not supposed to be here.
I would like to add a point here. During the 2014-2019 timeframe, the media in the telugu land would constantly harp on any BJP losses in by polls as a verdict on Modi govt but remain silent on any victory as such. when a BJP spokesman used to say people vote differently for national and state elections, his view point was summarily dismissed as most of the by polls atleast in the south are to be won by the ruling party as a referendum " unless there is a sympathy for the diseased members family contesting the bypoll.
I would like to add this video analysis from a journalist raka sudhakar regarding the poll violence and its aftermath.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vUyTckBeHQs



Essentially he is saying there is large scale violence in Bengal, there are hundreds and thousands displaced by violence, but the twitter handles are saying there are lakhs of people displaced and most of these tweets are originating from pak and turkey handles and retweeted by Hindus knowingly and unknowingly.
they are then saying that Modi is not doing anything and filling his supporters with despair and causing them to question the leadership.

the second point about applying article 356 to dismiss the state govt, he says the central govt can't dismiss the state govt as dismissal for post poll violence is not ground for dismissal and if mamata moves supreme court, you can expect the supreme to rule against central govt.
Most of the violence has taken place when the Election Commision was in charge and before the swearing in, so Center doesn't have grounds on mamata banerjee. So they have let the govt sworn in and have asked the report from Home secretary based on article 255 and 256. The state bureaucracy cannot escape once the govt is back in charge.

That is one reason also why after mamta has sworn in, the violence has gone down. The BJP president JP Nadda, Kailash Vijayvargiya, Dilip Gosh and Suvendu Adhikari are meeting with the people on the ground and trying to help them however they can.

All of these point that Liberals in the country and the ones outside are targeting the supporters of the current govt to cause them to doubt the them and leave them for the next elections with confusion.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby venkat_kv » 10 May 2021 04:21

Rahul M wrote:First of all I would like to admit that I underestimated TMC's hold on the votebank and had expected a comfortable BJP victory in WB. I am still perplexed somewhat but will try to piece together a coherent narrative that tries to explain what went wrong.

I see it as the 2009 moment for BJP in WB. Just like in 2009 we expected the country to vote for security in the aftermath of 26/11 and punish the guilty party, we expected WB to vote for safety and punish the one responsible for the insecurity. Yet, both times the populace decided to continue with the underperforming incumbent. BJP learnt from its mistake and came back strongly in 2014. Can we expect a repeat in WB2026?

snip....
More later.

Rahul M Saar,
be as it may with what you have said about BJP failing to capture bengal, isn't the govt in charge of Bengal also taken precautions to correct it's mistakes and image in the past two years with cut money and giving some rations.
Also the vote transfer from left to BJP last time and probably to TMC this time also count.
so shouldn't that also feature in your calculations. Also it is quite an good grap showing the BJP in 2019 LS and 2021 VS in Bengal. they seem to have lost the Medhinapor and Hoogli areas. BTW, did the defections into BJP win or were they defeated this time around by the TMC?
that can also help us estimate how much of defectiosn have helped them with vote share.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby Rahul M » 10 May 2021 15:20

Venkat ji, this was only the first part that dealt with the nature of defeat, I am writing the 2nd part now which deals with the causes of the defeat.
Your points are mentioned there, among others. To put it simply, it's more complex than that.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby Kakkaji » 10 May 2021 20:34

Aim to make Assam one among top five states: Himanta Biswa Sarma

Newly sworn-in Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma on Monday said the aim of his government is to make the state one of the top five in India in the next five years.

"We will start working from tomorrow to achieve this objective," Sarma told reporters here after taking oath.

The NEDA convenor said the prime focus of the second BJP government in Assam will be to control the COVID-19 pandemic, fulfil all poll promises and make the state free from the annual flood havoc.

Sarma also appealed to the insurgent groups, especially the ULFA(I), to lay down arms and be a part of the mainstream to establish peace in the state.

"I request Paresh Barua to come to the discussion table and resolve issues. Kidnappings and killings complicate problems, not solve them. I hope we will be able to make the underground insurgents return to the mainstream in the next five years," the CM said.

Asked about the contentious National Register of Citizens (NRC), the chief minister said his government wants reverification of 20 per cent names in the border districts of Assam, and 10 per cent in other areas.

"If very negligible error is found, then we can proceed with the existing NRC. But, if there are huge anomalies, I hope the court will take note and do the needful with a new perspective," he said without elaborating.

On BJP's assurance of bringing in a law against 'love jihad', Sarma said: "Every promise was meant for implementation. We will do everything possible to fulfil them.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby arshyam » 10 May 2021 20:45

So what happens to Sonowal? By all rights, he did head the govt and got re-elected. Does he get a central posting now?

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby Kakkaji » 10 May 2021 21:08

arshyam wrote:So what happens to Sonowal? By all rights, he did head the govt and got re-elected. Does he get a central posting now?


Most likely.

High-profile leaders waiting for a central cabinet berth right now:

1. Jyotiraditya Scindia
2. Sushil Modi
3. Mukul Roy
4. Sarbananda Sonowal

and some more.

A Central Cabinet expansion is overdue.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby Rsatchi » 10 May 2021 21:38

^^Needs pronto

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby Kakkaji » 10 May 2021 21:40

Suvendu Adhikari elected Opposition leader in West Bengal assembly

BJP on Monday chose Suvendu Adhikari as Leader of Opposition in the new West Bengal Assembly. Union minister Ravi Shankar Prasad announced Adhikari's name as leader of the BJP legislature party in the assembly after a meeting of the legislators at the party's Hastings office.

Adhikari had won election from Nandigram assembly seat, defeating his former mentor-turned-political adversary Mamata Banerjee by a narrow margin of over 1900 votes. A former state minister Adhikari had joined the BJP before the state polls. After high-octane battle of Nandigram, the chief minister and Adhikari will again be face-to-face in the assembly.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby vijayk » 10 May 2021 21:58

Kakkaji wrote:
arshyam wrote:So what happens to Sonowal? By all rights, he did head the govt and got re-elected. Does he get a central posting now?


Most likely.

High-profile leaders waiting for a central cabinet berth right now:

1. Jyotiraditya Scindia
2. Sushil Modi
3. Mukul Roy
4. Sarbananda Sonowal

and some more.

A Central Cabinet expansion is overdue.


He is a smart guy. We should make him head of healthcare reform ...

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby chetak » 10 May 2021 22:32

At least, some of the negative perception is being reversed.

Now, there has to be safety for the common karyakartha too


All 77 BJP MLAs in WB to have central security cover

New Delhi, May 10

All 77 BJP MLAs in WB to have central security cover

All the newly elected 77 BJP MLAs in West Bengal are being provided a cover of central security forces in view of potential threats to them, official sources said on Monday.

They said the Members of the Legislative Assembly will be secured by armed commandos of the CISF and the CRPF.

The Union Home Ministry has approved the cover after taking into cognisance a report prepared by central security agencies and the inputs of a high-level team of officers that was sent to the state by the ministry in the wake of post-poll violence against the workers of the BJP, they said.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby chetak » 10 May 2021 22:36

arshyam wrote:So what happens to Sonowal? By all rights, he did head the govt and got re-elected. Does he get a central posting now?


by rights, where else could you accommodate a serving chief minister who has also won the elections under his watch, and not, for a moment, taking away anything from the tremendously capable Hemanta Biswa Sarma.

from the net:

Himanta Biswa Sarma: BJP’s North Eastern Pole Star

"Rahul Gandhi personally handed over BJP its North Eastern pole star and the BJP isn’t complaining."

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby ramana » 10 May 2021 23:11

arshyam wrote:So what happens to Sonowal? By all rights, he did head the govt and got re-elected. Does he get a central posting now?



What's the rush? Will know eventually.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby Kati » 11 May 2021 00:17

Sonwal is a perfect gentleman, he will be inducted in the central cabinet. On the other hand, Sharma is a great strategist, - not only did he help win Assam this time, but also he has left his footprints in other NE states. Especially in Tripura he worked very hard too.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby Kati » 11 May 2021 00:22

Had a long discussion with several people over the last few days who have theirs in the ground. Well before the election local level BJP leaders in Maldah, Hooghly, Howrah and two Dinajpurs behaved as if they had already won the election. Perhaps this complacency took roots based on the 2019 GE.

Mumtaz Banoo on the other hand increased her dole outs systematically in deep rural pockets, and kept a close tabs on her local party leaders.


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