2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

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Ambar
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Ambar » 16 May 2021 03:43

sanjayc wrote:She lives in my neighbourhood and I often bump into her while taking walk in the park post-dinner. Her NGO is called Manushi which is located in a four story building owned by her, just across the road from my house. She was quite forthcoming when I approached her for help for a girl who was being harassed by her powerful in-laws. They had filed a court case against her and had hired a famous lawyer to push the case. Kishwar put me in touch with a competent female lawyer who charged very reasonable amount. The lawyer totally turned the case in the girl's favor in a few months. Kishwar should have been recognized by Modi by giving her some government post, like chairperson of women and child commission or something. These are the type of people with whom an ecosystem can be built for BJP, but BJP has a habit of shunning its supporters and not reward them. This leads to bitterness. It is foolish of BJP. Arun Shourie, Chandan Mitra, Madhu Kishwar .. the list is long of people pushed to the wayside by BJP after it has won.


Sanjayji, there are hundreds of thousands of BJP karyakartas who do 1000x more for the party than someone like Madhu Kishwar, it is impossible to keep everyone happy. Within days of the cabinet formation in 2014 she started spewing venom on Smrit Irani , she has routinely attacked many who have steadfastly stood behind BJP and Modi through victories and defeats. As for Arun Shourie he is over 80 now and was well into his 70s when Modi took over, Shourie also came with a baggage of the controversial disinvestment of national assets , especially the ITDC hotels which were sold for a song during his time. As for SuSwamy the less said about him the better.

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 16 May 2021 03:46

Ambar wrote:
chetak wrote:prashant kishore as PM candidate possibility is very intriguing as also extremely dangerous..

just remember that khujliwal was also built up and paradropped into the dilli CM's gaddi by the BIF. But Modi has been very clever in completely defanging this khujliwal and isolating him.

The fact that the mafia queen studiously and completely ignores khujliwal is proof enough that she considers him a danger to pappu, as well as, to the family.

khujliwal will never be able to do the CM's job himself so he has adopted the mafia queen's delegate to MMS strategy.

earlier RRR was being built up as the MMS substitute for pappu and now one more may join the BIF sponsored list of useful fools


PM candidate from where and which party ? Outside of those who closely follow national politics the man is a totally unknown entity, an average voter even in the recently concluded WB elections wouldnt have a clue who Prashant Kishor is ! Then there's the question of platform itself, apart from BJP the only party with a pan-national appeal is INC, and INC will never allow anyone other than the Gandhis to be the PM candidate, and even if someday the Gandhis decide to take a backseat INC has a history of rewarding absolute loyalty, so PK wont be allowed inside the gates of 24 Akbar Road. That leaves us with the regional satraps like TMC, NCP, JDS, DMK, SS, RJD, SP etc, all of these parties have two fundamental flaws - (a) they are regional, their entire rise and survival is based on their "regionalism" and regional chauvinism, so it is impossible for them to grow outside their home states and (b) these post-mandal parties have all become family enterprises , so the baton is passed from grandfather to the son/daughter to grandson/granddaughter and so on, they will never allow their "family property" to be usurped by some political consultant who has lost more elections than he has won. Madhu Kishwar can down another peg and continue raging..


sirji,

did anyone know khujliwal or even the AAP before they exploded on the scene

the very people who created khujliwal also created the AAP for him

so what has this prashant kishor guy "actually" been doing all these years, he has mining realtime data from diverse states, getting paid obscene amounts by "desperate to win" political parties and using their money he has vast amounts of data, trends, district and zilla level analysis, including probably, AI based predictive algorithms that help to foster voting share increase and has created for himself a very unique, very nimble and a technically savvy, election focussed organization which is solely data driven.

he has a full war chest, the political supporters and patronage from regional leaders obliged to him and a huge connect with not only the BJP leadership but more importantly an excellent rapport with the opposition parties' leadership.

this is how the onion merchants have thrived, prospered, got govt awards and they are the only ones against whom there are no cases filed.

this may well be his first step: consolidate power through his own political party.

He has also been trying very, very hard to get into the parliament via a "gifted" RS seat if SM were to be believed
Last edited by chetak on 16 May 2021 04:01, edited 1 time in total.

Ambar
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Ambar » 16 May 2021 03:59

There's a great difference between a party like AAP forming by riding the coattail of Anna movement and Nirbhaya protests and winning a city state to someone like Prashant Kishor starting his own party, spreading it across India and winning. His "war chest" from all the consulting fees wont be enough for him to win BH panchayat elections on his own let alone contest and win in general elections. His political supporters are his clients, they are not dumb enough to make him their leader as we saw in case of Nitish Kumar who kicked PK out of JDU when he started throwing toys out of the pram, in the end JDU-BJP ended up winning Bihar despite all odds . There's nothing to say his work alone won TMC the elections in WB, and there's plenty of lost elections which proves that he is no magician. India is a land where we make heroes out of nobodies everyday but its also the land where we make zeros out of heroes .

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 16 May 2021 05:20

Ambar wrote:There's a great difference between a party like AAP forming by riding the coattail of Anna movement and Nirbhaya protests and winning a city state to someone like Prashant Kishor starting his own party, spreading it across India and winning. His "war chest" from all the consulting fees wont be enough for him to win BH panchayat elections on his own let alone contest and win in general elections. His political supporters are his clients, they are not dumb enough to make him their leader as we saw in case of Nitish Kumar who kicked PK out of JDU when he started throwing toys out of the pram, in the end JDU-BJP ended up winning Bihar despite all odds . There's nothing to say his work alone won TMC the elections in WB, and there's plenty of lost elections which proves that he is no magician. India is a land where we make heroes out of nobodies everyday but its also the land where we make zeros out of heroes .


wait and watch

things will unfold sooner rather than later

whatever he does, the BIF will be there supporting him

who would have ever thunk that guys like gujral, gowda or mms etc were PM material.

Politics has a funny way of settling on consensus and it sometimes makes a nobody like niazi leading the pakis or a beijingbiden leading the amerikis, or a gujral, a gowda, or a mms, "leading" India.

the bulawa comes in the strangest of ways.

Can anyone explain khujliwal's rise using logic or is it simply the soros (or other) magic

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Ambar » 16 May 2021 06:30

We'll see. Both Gowda and Gujral were placeholders, they were chosen by the 3rd front thinking they'll cause the least problem for the khichdi coalition but INC had different ideas and pulled the rug anyways . AAP may have been funded by foreign NGOs and desi BIFs but its rise was not all that surprising given how unpopular INC had become at that point and BJP had no powerful leader either at the national level nor in Delhi who could have challenged Shiela Dixit. Kejri was busy doing bashanbazi in 2011 but how he won the internal battle with other commies like Prashant Bhushan, YoYa man, Kumar Vishwas, Mayank Gandhi and others in AAP is something which needs to be studied closely. Kapil Mishra was a good find by BJP and i hope the new generation of BJP leaders in Delhi can be rallied around him. By the way, many people who have worked closely with PK for years have either formed their own consulting companies or work with other parties including BJP directly. Some of them worked with BJP on the ground in the recently concluded WB assembly elections, so his methods arent exactly a blackbox. And as we saw in UP in 2017, he cannot perform any miracles if the leaders are duds however he is useful when the contest is close. The margin with which TMC won in WB they probably would have won comfortably anyways with or without PK's input.

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby arshyam » 16 May 2021 09:34

sanjayc wrote:Kishwar should have been recognized by Modi by giving her some government post, like chairperson of women and child commission or something. These are the type of people with whom an ecosystem can be built for BJP, but BJP has a habit of shunning its supporters and not reward them. This leads to bitterness.

Well said. The problem as I see with the RSS/BJP approach is that they work for work's sake, without expecting any reward. This is what the Bhagawad Gita states. This approach also shows why they don't invest in propaganda - they perhaps think that the work should speak for itself. Again, this is in tune with the teachings of the Gita. So from a dharmic and spiritual PoV, this is the right thing to do, but in the current day and age, and in the field of politics, it is not always possible to stick to it. One should tailor one's approach to the field in which one is playing. I am sure Sri Krishna would have handled things differently if the Mahabharatam were a series of elections instead of battles. As the Thirukkural states, "Wisdom is to live in tune with the mode of the changing world".

My point is, for those dharmics outside of the RSS ecosystem, the RSS/BJP should adopt a different approach. Appointing one's supporters to influential posts in order to shape the narrative is the pragmatic thing to do. It is not easy to stick one's neck out professionally when the tide is against you, and a few people, including Kishwar, did that. Maybe Kishwar is a loose cannon, sure. But which other disciplined and well-known cannon or rifle have the BJP ever appointed to any post?

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby sudarshan » 16 May 2021 09:44

arshyam wrote:The problem as I see with the RSS/BJP approach is that they work for work's sake, without expecting any reward. This is what the Bhagawad Gita states. This approach also shows why they don't invest in propaganda - they perhaps think that the work should speak for itself.


I see this as a misunderstanding of what the Gita states (not on your part, but in general). Work without expectation of reward, sure. But part of your work as the govt. is to get your message across.

This idea that propaganda is something separate from "work" is silly - a govt. should definitely counter misinformation and get its own view out, because that is also the duty of the govt. Not doing so is a failure to do your duty. And the consequences will be in accordance with that. So invest in disseminating the truth and countering false narratives because that is your duty, but do that investment without expectation of reward. That would be in line with the Gita, not what this govt. is currently doing.

So from a dharmic and spiritual PoV, this is the right thing to do, but in the current day and age, and in the field of politics, it is not always possible to stick to it.


This is the part I disagree with. From a dharmic and spiritual PoV, it is your duty as govt. to disseminate your side of the story (but without regard to whether you are successful or not), not doing so is adharmic. So no surprises that failure to do so is generating bad consequences.

Just to add - the Gita clearly states "do not use the nishkama karma principle to justify or get addicted to inaction." Do your duty to the fullest extent, and *then* stay indifferent to the consequences.

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby arshyam » 16 May 2021 10:48

x-posting from the Wuhan virus thread as it's OT there.

disha wrote:Tanaji & VijayKji, thanks.

Personally, I do not hold any candle for any political party or person. I just see that Modi & team overall is working hard & working right.

Ppl are fickle. And media will twist. 2024 is too far ahead.

India has the best PM at the worst possible time. That's all.

disha-ji, we on BRF all will agree to this thought process. Heck, most of us, including moi, actively subscribe to this as we see the product of this hard work in terms of govt policy and responsiveness. But the common man does not look at it, and is content to just vent at somebody. That somebody can be anyone, but since pretty much all opposition leaders are pointing fingers at Modi, and they get a lot of media coverage, the common man also falls for it and ends up pointing his fingers at Modi as well. It's not the media's fault that the BJP gets no coverage - as usual, they aren't actually trying to say something. Or anything. So in what way would the common man, who has lost a near and dear one, rationalize the loss somehow without blaming the one guy trying his best to prevent that loss?

We cannot dismiss this out of hand saying 2024 is far out - people will forget hard financial times, but they won't forget family and friends who have passed away during this time. And invariably, passing away during these times is preceded by a monumental struggle against an un-empathetic and overloaded system. So eventually, this kind of negative perception works - as we saw in the West Bengal or even TN elections (where EPS really did do a great job handling Covid, yet was booted out without a word of thanks - many folks maintained that the EPS govt "did nothing"). Such a thing at a national level will be catastrophic, as you very well know.

The only hope I have is that Modi-ji has shown time and again that he knows the pulse of the people better than most of us and reacts to it in some manner. So I have no doubt that he will do something about this, but whether it will be too little too late is the unknown and the fear (in some of us), hence the advocacy of a more visible approach.

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karan M » 16 May 2021 13:44

sanjayc wrote:
chetak wrote:kishwar was one of modi's earliest media savvy supporter. She defended him on godra for the longest time.

but true to human nature, she fully expected to be recognised for her support and given "something" in return and that "something" for such people is political empowerment starting out with the baseline of a RS seat with visible govt patronage

Modi should have, at the very least, given her some chairperson-ship of some not so important organisation, but one that paid well in terms of salary and perks and celebrity status like the censor board or some educational/cultural committee "advising" the govt. The congis and commies know well how to play the game and she leans leftish as is evident from her NGO type activist endeavors.

she runs some sort of an NGO and has intellectual pretensions and thought that she would be able to leverage that support into setting up some well funded and powerful organisation and hype up her celebrity status.

It would probably have been much better to have her inside the tent pissing out than outside the tent pissing in.

nothing much can be done now. jo hua so hua.


She lives in my neighbourhood and I often bump into her while taking walk in the park post-dinner. Her NGO is called Manushi which is located in a four story building owned by her, just across the road from my house. She was quite forthcoming when I approached her for help for a girl who was being harassed by her powerful in-laws. They had filed a court case against her and had hired a famous lawyer to push the case. Kishwar put me in touch with a competent female lawyer who charged very reasonable amount. The lawyer totally turned the case in the girl's favor in a few months. Kishwar should have been recognized by Modi by giving her some government post, like chairperson of women and child commission or something. These are the type of people with whom an ecosystem can be built for BJP, but BJP has a habit of shunning its supporters and not reward them. This leads to bitterness. Arun Shourie, Chandan Mitra, Madhu Kishwar .. the list is long of people pushed to the wayside by BJP after it has won. BJP has zero culture of rewarding loyalty -- this is foolish of BJP. Congress would have immediately put these people into cushy government jobs in public sector or various commissions or hired them as advisors, etc. with good salary and government perks.


Thanks for sharing this personal experience. I agree BJP has done a horrible job of creating its own ecosystem, and mostly relies on its IT cell duffers online, most of whom wouldnt be able to articulate a single policy position without resorting to memes or propagandaesque positions of cheering on the leadership.

There is a severe disconnect between what people are experiencing, especially the urban middle class and what BJP thinks its achieving. I saw this through last year, and this year, it has been much worse. I wonder if there is even a feedback mechanism to have them course correct.

For many of us, its a case of TINA, considering the quality of the opposition who are downright anti-national. In this milieu, the muddled and shambolic manner in which the BJP has run many affairs is worrisome. We have skin in the game that they do better.

Having said that, our expectations are also very high, and they have inherited a poisoned chalice and faced crisis after crisis. So, yeah, we need to not go overboard with criticism either.

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Rsatchi » 16 May 2021 15:21

^^^Poisoned chalice or not, BJP have to get some fresh face in the cabinet.
People who can articulate both in vernacular and English, hard working and deliver things on time.
some of the excess baggage needs to be dispensed.
Three key sectors : finance, education/human resources, industry. Personally feel all two of three ministers heading these are failing.
Piyush G needs to be bumped up to finance, javdekar/Gangwar/Pandey needs fresh face for new direction.
Hardeep Puri and Rijiju can be bumped up to ?? cabinet rank
Scindia/Jay panda needs to be inducted and given independent charge
Joshiji in parliamentary affairs?? needs someone with cross-border charm(pun intended), someone who can get the tukde gang to come together to fight the post COVID financial hard times!!
Talking to few IT relatives all feel working from home is working really well! what will happen to all the real estate if the IT/BT sector have a re think on the office space!!
Maye food processing to be split from tomarji and given to some one who has late Mr Parikar-like work ethics and get things done quickly.

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby sanjayc » 16 May 2021 18:14

BJP needs to realize that electoral process is only one part of holding power. The other part consists of creating loyal influencers and spokespeople in different areas like academia, not-for-profit sector, media, corporate world, intellectuals, the legal world and the bureaucracy. People in these are social leaders and hold the levers of society. This is where Congress excels -- even if it has lost power in the electoral system, it is still strong in the other part. This is where importance of people like Madhu Kishwar or Rajiv Malhotra or Sanjay Dixit or Tufail Chaturvedi or Arnab Goswami or Subhash Chandra comes in. BJP is zero in the non-electoral space but Congress is dominant.

While the electoral space forms the government, the non-electoral space forms the establishment. The establishment allows you to rule even when you are not in the government. The establishment is the reason why the dying kicks of Congress have continued for so long and it has not gone belly up. It is the establishment that creates a narrative about a political party to make it socially acceptable. That is why Congress vehemently trolls and targets any individual seen as part of BJP ecosystem (Arnab, etc.) -- it is preventing BJP from forming an establishment.

While Modi and Shah are champions of electoral space, they shun creating the establishment (much to the delight of Ccongress), as if by creating that ecosystem they will get polluted. They also have a strong suspicion that such people are just opportunists so they avoid them. They think that only grassroots people who can win an election are worthy of attention. This is a huge mistake. A beginning has to be made somewhere in creating the establishment.

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Ambar » 16 May 2021 18:35

Rsatchi wrote:^^^Poisoned chalice or not, BJP have to get some fresh face in the cabinet.
People who can articulate both in vernacular and English, hard working and deliver things on time.
some of the excess baggage needs to be dispensed.
Three key sectors : finance, education/human resources, industry. Personally feel all two of three ministers heading these are failing.
Piyush G needs to be bumped up to finance, javdekar/Gangwar/Pandey needs fresh face for new direction.
Hardeep Puri and Rijiju can be bumped up to ?? cabinet rank
Scindia/Jay panda needs to be inducted and given independent charge
Joshiji in parliamentary affairs?? needs someone with cross-border charm(pun intended), someone who can get the tukde gang to come together to fight the post COVID financial hard times!!
Talking to few IT relatives all feel working from home is working really well! what will happen to all the real estate if the IT/BT sector have a re think on the office space!!
Maye food processing to be split from tomarji and given to some one who has late Mr Parikar-like work ethics and get things done quickly.


Not two out of three but all three of them have failed miserably. One of the compulsions in Indian politics is that the states that send a large number of MPs should get cabinet representation, so if Javedkar or DV Sadananda Gowda are replaced then the replacement should also be from their states and this isnt always easy to do. But a reshuffle is long overdue and Scindia, Sonowal, Jay Panda need to be given cabinet positions , N Sitharaman, Javedkar, Ravishankar, Harshwardhan need to go. The cabinet can also be expanded as some of the ministers have been managing multiple portfolios .

Satchiji, don't worry about Indian real estate be it commercial or housing. It is a perpetual bubble and will continue to remain so for another hundreds years. Despite abysmal quality of life Indian real estate in tier 1 metros are some of the most expensive in the world when adjusted to purchase parity. Outside of few cities like Bangalore, Chennai, Pune, Hyderabad and Gurgaon, the IT companies are far and few in other places. Even in these 5 cities i expect companies to call back their employees once the crisis is over, maybe they wont need as much space as before but i doubt a permanent wfh will ever be an option for Indian corporates. Already many vacant office space have been converted into warehouses for e-commerce and server farms for cloud operators, i expect such adjustments to continue.

The challenge will be to grow the economy while managing inflation. As we are seeing world over the stimulus pumped into the system in the last 15 months have caused a significant spike in CPI, US april CPI was 4.2%, a 13 yr high. India has historically suffered from chronic high inflation, so an economy with so much pent up demand, input raw material price hikes, labor shortages due to migration, businesses trying to recover losses from 2020 and 2021 will all put an upside pressure on inflation, the government has to be very careful in managing this.

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Ambar » 16 May 2021 18:42

As for Madhu Kishwar, we are kidding ourselves if we think her ego would be satisfied by naming her the head of some board. The way she went after Smriti Irani soon after the cabinet was announced in 2014 clearly shows she expected nothing less than a Rajya Sabha seat and a ministership. She is not even a member of BJP, so why should BJP overlook its long time karyakartas for her ? Similar mistakes have backfired spectacularly as in the case of Kiran Bedi. The only contribution of Madhu Kishwar was defending Modi on Twitter pre-2014 and writing a book. While i agree an ecosystem needs to be created to counter BIF, i dont think this means taking in unstable and volatile personalities like Kishwar.

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby sanjayc » 16 May 2021 18:48

BJP is not taking anyone, volatile or non-volatile. It is simply not creating an establishment. They are answering Congress prayers.

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Ambar » 16 May 2021 18:51

Something about Shourie since his name is being mentioned in multiple posts. Back in 2001-2002 a 'Hotel Ashoka' in my town ( in those days it was what we call a tier-3 city today) was sold to a local liquor baron and a long time Congress party member for 1 cr rupees. This was a mammoth structure in the heart of the city on a national highway, and houses in good neighborhoods in the city were going close to 75 lakhs those days, so a 5 star hotel being sold for a song shocked many. Looks like it wasnt the only hotel in the ITDC portfolio which was practically given away for free, ITDC properties were systematically looted and Arun Shourie oversaw it all. Few years later it surfaced that he did even worse with Hindustan Zinc, so the man isnt exactly an angel.

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Jarita » 16 May 2021 19:48

Ambar wrote:Something about Shourie since his name is being mentioned in multiple posts. Back in 2001-2002 a 'Hotel Ashoka' in my town ( in those days it was what we call a tier-3 city today) was sold to a local liquor baron and a long time Congress party member for 1 cr rupees. This was a mammoth structure in the heart of the city on a national highway, and houses in good neighborhoods in the city were going close to 75 lakhs those days, so a 5 star hotel being sold for a song shocked many. Looks like it wasnt the only hotel in the ITDC portfolio which was practically given away for free, ITDC properties were systematically looted and Arun Shourie oversaw it all. Few years later it surfaced that he did even worse with Hindustan Zinc, so the man isnt exactly an angel.



Thank you. Our national assets have been sold to outsiders for pennies. Some assets should not be privatized till India has the power to control business. Else everyone can wield control.
This includes the valuable air routes of -
Air India.

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Manish_Sharma » 16 May 2021 21:16

sanjayc wrote:
.. the list is long of people pushed to the wayside by BJP after it has won. BJP has zero culture of rewarding loyalty -- this is foolish of BJP.


Arun shourie became untouchable the day he wrote book against Ambedkar, if he was made Minister all opposition + some NDA partners would have used this opportunity to paint BJP as anti Dalit.

Also with being Modi-hater, Shourie has become anti-hindu too. Another book he wrote he tries to prove that Ramkrishna Paramhansa didn't experience Samadhi, but just had a faulty Temporal Lobe which gave him epilepsy. So its epilepsy not Samadhi. Giving interviews on ndtv also exposes him.

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 16 May 2021 23:54

Manish_Sharma wrote:
sanjayc wrote:
.. the list is long of people pushed to the wayside by BJP after it has won. BJP has zero culture of rewarding loyalty -- this is foolish of BJP.


Arun shourie became untouchable the day he wrote book against Ambedkar, if he was made Minister all opposition + some NDA partners would have used this opportunity to paint BJP as anti Dalit.

Also with being Modi-hater, Shourie has become anti-hindu too. Another book he wrote he tries to prove that Ramkrishna Paramhansa didn't experience Samadhi, but just had a faulty Temporal Lobe which gave him epilepsy. So its epilepsy not Samadhi. Giving interviews on ndtv also exposes him.


that anti dalit stance was also his kiss of death and shourie actually expected to be given a heavyweight ministry after that shows how delusional he is, just like yeshwant sinha who has made the budgets for the aap govt, these past years. this guy wanted to head the BRICS bank and showed his true colors when rightfully sidelined.

and yet Modi went to see shourie in a poona hospital where where he was recovering from some illness. this was during Modi's vaccine yatra to SI at poona and BB in hyderabad, both done on the same day

one guy who paid for his father's sins and who could be rehabilitated now is mahesh jethmalani.

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby sanjayc » 17 May 2021 00:17

What I meant was that creation of an establishment is important. Individuals are immaterial. If Shourie or Kishwar are not suitable or opportunists, then promote other people who are better, but the space cannot be left vacant and uncontested.

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 17 May 2021 05:06

The Delhi Police's Crime Branch has arrested Navneet Kalra, accused of hoarding and black marketing oxygen concentrators in Delhi.

https://www.indiatoday.in/cities/delhi/story/navneet-kalra-arrested-crime-branch-black-marketing-oxygen-concentrators-1803286-2021-05-16


Why was he arrested.

He was providing a much needed public service. One could order oxygen concentrators from him and he would arrange contactless delivery via giggy or jomato

no need for anyone to go hunting for unwashed paapi councillors

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby LakshmanPST » 17 May 2021 07:14

A bit OT, but I personally feel most ppl expected too much from BJP & Modi back in 2014...
Congress is feared not becoz. of what they do when in power, but for what they can do using their network and establishment behind the scenes even without power...
CongressMuktBharat is not removing Congress out of PM/CM office... Ppl expected Modi to break the real power of Congress/BIF, their ecosystem...
I know ppl who thought Modi would break BIF network behind the scenes, without exactly following law but by other means (if you know what I mean)... I guess most of us subconsciously created this sort of mental image of Modi back in 2014...

But what we saw in the last 7 years is a Govt. trying to push various reforms through law, facing huge resistance from ecosystem & establishment... Though we have not seen any major terrorist attack outside Kashmir, what we saw is 0.5 front fully activated and flourishing...
Somehow Modi failed to rein in these BI Forces...

We can give a million explanations for why it is not easy to do something, but an average voter won't have the patience to understand this... An average person only sees protestors rioting on the streets and Govt. not able to control them...
And a Govt. that failed to stop the foreign money reaching these protestors & rioters...
It is same as an average person seeing bomb blasts and govt. not able to stop them (Ecosystem was somewhat complicit in those bomb blasts but that is entirely different thing... I'm talking about public perception)...

Most frustration we see here in BRF is due to Govt.'s failure to break BIF network in the last 7 years and fear that BIF will get back direct power again... Modi really need to up his game...

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Yagnasri » 17 May 2021 08:27

No one respects people in power unless they are afraid of them. People respect Indira Gandhi even today because she was ruthless in her use of power to destroy her enemies. Are we using the power to destroy the BIF even now? No. We allow the BIF to run amok in many areas.

This is the main reason. No enemy of BJP fears it. Be it under ABV before 2004 or under NM after 2014. True that many reforms after 2014 did a lot of damage to BIF and its supporters but they quickly recovered and the damage was in no way permanent or even long term.

Many ministers are failures and need to be replaced asap. Hope it happens soon.

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby disha » 17 May 2021 08:35

I totally understand that the forum members feel that members of BIF gets severe punishment, for example hung from their thumbs* till they squeal all their crimes on prime TV.

And of course each and every day for BJP needs to be in a campaign mode. Otherwise they will definitely lose the 2024 elections (some 3 years away) just like they did not listen to this forum and lost the 2019 elections! They failed to get 340+ seats (2/3rd majority) and only with NDA coalition partners could get like 353 seats!

And Mudi and company are such morons that they have this golden chance which may never ever ever never come again to break the BIF.

My only question is how do you identify BIF? And for the BIF do we need to invent new laws like hang from their thumbs till they squeal on prime time? Of course some are visible BIF, like the Great Dumberg and her gadfly which was my namesake!** Or the rNDTV journos. In fact our own BRF member Vishnu Som got called out as aunty national on Twitter. He thought it was rude, till someone corrected him saying there is a difference between rude and truth.

I was totally scared. Thanks to Mudi and the team, the hang by thumbs till all crimes are squealed in front of doorknob law did not come to pass and I could come out of hiding. You see just because a namesake works for Great Dumberg who is actually busy building her resume and become the Anne Frank of ecology, I might be mistaken as a member of BIF rather than BRF.

And I totally understand that the people are angry because of Coronavirus situation. And of course Mudi and his gang must be blamed for not stopping the second wave. And this same angry people will go and buy Chinese gadgets because their pocket book affords only so much and totally give them free pass on wily-nily creating the very first wave.

I am just surprised that the middle class thought that the health care infrastructure in India is as advanced, if not more advanced than the US of A and Japan and of course the immunity so strong that they can go around ignoring Mudi and gang when they were saying that please put your mask on. Of course the same set now argues for total lockdown. It is scientifically proven that total lock down does not help. And it just pushes people into poverty. For many, livelihood matter too.

And yes there is the small issue of not ordering enough vaccines in time. I do have a suggestion for the planning to be married and recently married and planning to be parent folks here. Please order engineering seats and medical seats in dozen or so colleges across India and pay the fees in advance. Wait, India vaccinated almost 20 crore or some 40 Jacinda Municipalities (a.ka as the country of New Zealand). The very same ppl clamoring now that Mudi who must by now rezine for not ordering enough vaccines in time were clamoring that the vaccines are unsafe.

Please let that sink in. The vaccines were claimed unsafe by the same people who are saying now that Mudi did not do enough to stop second wave while doing kitty parties at home.

So where do we go from here?***

It is simple. It is the *economy*. As long as people regain back their livelihood and see an end to this ordeal, they will do the right thing. They did the right thing in 2014. They did the right thing in 2019. They did not realize that the UPA will do the wrong thing in 2009, inspite of 26/11 and daily attacks in Cashmere. They thought that the economy will continue to grow as it did from 2004-2009. They did not realize that UPA-2 will send the economy into stagflation. Stagnant growth and high relative inflation. This can be seen in the Daal-Roti price of the people.

Toor dal prices in 2013 per quintal was @7300 Rs. In 2021, the same is Rs. 5300. That is a drop of @30%.

Wheat prices in 2013 per quintal was @2100 Rs. In 2021, the same is Rs. 1650-Rs.1950. That is the price is same.

It boils down to Nirupa Roy declaring Mehngai kaa Jamana (era of cost). Elections will be won or lost on that wheel. The other wheel is "employment" opportunities. Or rather money-making opportunities. Think of Tesla dual drive motor cars. If Mehngai ka jamana (or inflation) comes in, and there is no "employment", then the ruling party will see reverse gear in their seats. Sometimes down to double digits. If Mehngai ka Jamana never comes in (that is there is no inflation) but there is no employment either, then it is a stalemate. Think of khichdi government of 90s.

If there is no inflation and overall job growth, then the ruling party will win hands down. Everything else is just plain noise.

I would expect the members of the BRF to think and at least identify what the BIF (assuming they work like Spectra from Bond movies) will target. For example why are they targeting Central Vista project? Why are they targeting Bullet Train? Why are they targeting Farm Laws? Why are they targeting "AtmaNirbhar Bharat"? Why is it that they do not recognize the great strides made in Vaccine development? Why are they targeting vaccine manufacturers (including the injustices of empire penguins)? Why are they targeting building of rail lines? Each one of them can either be classified into easing supply side constraints (reduces inflation) or employment opportunities.

* Hang from their thumbs as punishment was first discussed in Harry Potter books, which last checked was book meant for the children. So what goes in the public schools of former UK should work for the BIF.

** How dare you not know who the Great Dumberg is and who is her gadfly and my namesake?

*** Respect people who lost their livelihoods, their savings and more importantly their near and dear ones. They being upset is natural.

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Ambar » 17 May 2021 08:48

+100 ! Good post Dishaji.

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Rudradev » 17 May 2021 09:32

"BIFs" (i.e. Breaking India Forces) have existed on our soil since Mohammed Bin Qasim's arrival in Sindh, i.e. for the approx 1,309 years since 712 CE.

Modi has been PM since 2014 and still hasn't got rid of all these BIFs. Why hasn't he done it. He sud rejine.

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby CalvinH » 17 May 2021 09:39

sanjayc wrote:BJP needs to realize that electoral process is only one part of holding power. The other part consists of creating loyal influencers and spokespeople in different areas like academia, not-for-profit sector, media, corporate world, intellectuals, the legal world and the bureaucracy. .


This is a common frustration with BJP supporters. None of the people cultivated by congress and now regarded as the Intellectuals, influencers etc. are really one. Most are fraud operators who make money for themselves through the system set up by congress. Directly or through favors. And this list includes corporate barons who are now on run.

Question is: Would you like BJP to set up a system of such opportunist and for-money supporters? And replace these people with similar set of for BJP people.

BJP is an ideology driven party and many like us who support it are with it because of its ideology. This will take time but when its there you will see some fundamental change in Indian politics. Many people fail to understand this difference. But let me give you an example. In 1996 LS elections BJP fielded a unknown person K L Sharma against Sajjan Kumar in Jat dominated outer Delhi. It was unprecedented. And K L Sharma won the elections. This is power of sangathan and ideology. You can't make it by rewarding and promoting people because you want them tweet for you.

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 17 May 2021 10:38

Be the best bhakt you can be. My @ETOpinion column.

Leni Riefenstahl, Manoj Kumar, Joan Of Arc - lots of people to follow in the footsteps of.
via@Rajyasree


Image

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 17 May 2021 10:42

Image

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby sanjayc » 17 May 2021 10:56

chetak wrote:
Be the best bhakt you can be. My @ETOpinion column.

Leni Riefenstahl, Manoj Kumar, Joan Of Arc - lots of people to follow in the footsteps of.
via@Rajyasree

Most of these potshots on "bhakts" are taken by brainwashed Bengalis and Mallus. (Because of lack of industrialization in their states, most of them have infested careers based on intellectual pursuits like journalism or art or academia.) These progressive seculars forget that only Bhakts will help them when they are living in tent cities in Delhi in another 20 years like Kashmiri Pandits

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby sanjayc » 17 May 2021 11:03

chetak wrote:The Delhi Police's Crime Branch has arrested Navneet Kalra, accused of hoarding and black marketing oxygen concentrators in Delhi.

https://www.indiatoday.in/cities/delhi/story/navneet-kalra-arrested-crime-branch-black-marketing-oxygen-concentrators-1803286-2021-05-16


Why was he arrested.

He was providing a much needed public service. One could order oxygen concentrators from him and he would arrange contactless delivery via giggy or jomato

no need for anyone to go hunting for unwashed paapi councillors


He was selling concentrators at 4 times the cost he procured them at. Plus they were faulty -- they did not have capability to support even a single patient due to inadequate oxygen flow. In addition, he was not providing any redressal for product complaints. By that logic, even people selling Remdesvir in black at ten times the price are providing a much-needed public service.

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 17 May 2021 11:54

sanjayc wrote:
chetak wrote:The Delhi Police's Crime Branch has arrested Navneet Kalra, accused of hoarding and black marketing oxygen concentrators in Delhi.

https://www.indiatoday.in/cities/delhi/story/navneet-kalra-arrested-crime-branch-black-marketing-oxygen-concentrators-1803286-2021-05-16

Why was he arrested.

He was providing a much needed public service. One could order oxygen concentrators from him and he would arrange contactless delivery via giggy or jomato

no need for anyone to go hunting for unwashed paapi councillors


He was selling concentrators at 4 times the cost he procured them at. Plus they were faulty -- they did not have capability to support even a single patient due to inadequate oxygen flow. In addition, he was not providing any redressal for product complaints. By that logic, even people selling Remdesvir in black at ten times the price are providing a much-needed public service.


I was being sarcastic onlee, sirji.

hang the black marketing and profiteering punk from the nearest lamp post, preferably by his lootyens inflated ghoolies.

no sympathies for any congi, commie, naxal woke

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby A Deshmukh » 17 May 2021 12:12

disha wrote:It is simple. It is the *economy*. As long as people regain back their livelihood and see an end to this ordeal, they will do the right thing. They did the right thing in 2014. They did the right thing in 2019. They did not realize that the UPA will do the wrong thing in 2009, inspite of 26/11 and daily attacks in Cashmere. They thought that the economy will continue to grow as it did from 2004-2009. They did not realize that UPA-2 will send the economy into stagflation. Stagnant growth and high relative inflation. This can be seen in the Daal-Roti price of the people.

Toor dal prices in 2013 per quintal was @7300 Rs. In 2021, the same is Rs. 5300. That is a drop of @30%.

Wheat prices in 2013 per quintal was @2100 Rs. In 2021, the same is Rs. 1650-Rs.1950. That is the price is same.

It boils down to Nirupa Roy declaring Mehngai kaa Jamana (era of cost). Elections will be won or lost on that wheel. The other wheel is "employment" opportunities. Or rather money-making opportunities. Think of Tesla dual drive motor cars. If Mehngai ka jamana (or inflation) comes in, and there is no "employment", then the ruling party will see reverse gear in their seats. Sometimes down to double digits. If Mehngai ka Jamana never comes in (that is there is no inflation) but there is no employment either, then it is a stalemate. Think of khichdi government of 90s.

If there is no inflation and overall job growth, then the ruling party will win hands down.
Everything else is just plain noise.

+1. great post. clarity of thought and focus.
I think Modi also understand this.

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Pratyush » 17 May 2021 12:27

It's no longer about the economy. It's about the outrage without any rationale thought process.

India is a country where doctors get beaten up when a very sick person who will die regardless is brought late in the hospital, dies.

It's going to be an uphill struggle managing the fallout of this pandemic.

PRC comes later this year.

The economic sabotage comes next year.

It's the perfect script for the bif.

The indrashakti is charging up.

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby nandakumar » 17 May 2021 13:01

On economy, inflation and winning election. Soon after 2014 election I was invited to speak at Rotary Club event on the political situation and election outcome through macroeconomic perspective. I had said that inflation is a key metric in deciding election outcomes. But simultaneously economic growth and the prosperity that percolates down to the masses also matter. I hypothesized that for party to retain power it should ensure that the GDP growth must be at least 2 percentage points above the CPI inflation. The 2 percentage point extra growth ensure that some prosperity percolates to the masses which makes people manage the pain of higher prices a lot better. I have no hard empirical data for this. Just an intuitive understanding.

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 17 May 2021 13:56

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 17 May 2021 15:29

finally, telling it like it is

has the bullywood's perennial d company forced worship of the overrated paki pasand khans finally turned the corner

this guy couldn't act his way out of a brown paper bag, if his life depended on it


Radhe Your Most Wanted Bhai movie review: Salman Khan-Prabhudeva's yet another cringeworthy watch

Radhe Your Most Wanted Bhai movie review: Salman Khan and Prabhudeva have teamed up for yet another cringeworthy watch.

Soumya Srivastava
MAY 14, 2021

It takes some doing to make a film, that leaves one wondering, if it would really have been that bad if the pandemic took you out last week. With Radhe: Your Most Wanted Bhai, Salman Khan brings yet another deadly wave of cringeworthy one-liners, cheap CGI action, and a senseless story that are a torture to sit through.

Radhe, out on Zee5--a favourite among pandemic releases--is supposed to be a remake of Korean film The Outlaws, but one quick Wikipedia search later, I can't see how. Directed Salman's go-to director for bad action films, Prabhudeva, the film comes across as another sizzle reel for Salman and his bulging biceps, joining the ranks of Kick, Wanted, Race 3, the Dabangg series and more. This time, Salman, still pretending to be 30, cute and athletic, plays an affable encounter specialist who is called to Mumbai to rid the city of a drug problem.

Watch Radhe trailer:




Radhe bores holes in rapists in the morning, stares at Disha Patani's legs in the afternoon, and hugs kids at a rehab facility in the evening. It is not known when he practises running in super speed like the Bhai Cinematic Universe's very own Flash. Perhaps after dinner. But that time might be reserved for dancing with Jacqueline Fernandez at bars.

Pitted against him is Randeep Hooda's menacing drug lord. The actor couldn't even be bothered to change his hairstyle from the film Extraction or open his mouth at more than 40% capacity. As far as B-grade Bollywood villains go, he's as slimy as they come. He slits throats at whim, rapes and murders without reason. It was perhaps the only option available to make him appear more sinister amid an absence of halfway decent character writing.

Salman Khan with Randeep Hooda in Radhe: Your Most Wanted Bhai.
Salman Khan with Randeep Hooda in Radhe: Your Most Wanted Bhai.


These two are supplemented by Disha, who plays a sexy person of the female kind, and Jackie Shroff, who appears as a sleazy police commissioner of the comical kind. Not a single person appears to belong to the same planet as us. They are all idiotic beyond belief. The low-stakes plot, which involves Disha's character getting kidnapped by potential rapists and Jackie's character having an 'emotional' change of heart, induced a gag reflex in me.

Also read: Yasmine Al Massri defends Priyanka Chopra as Twitter user questions her silence on Israel-Palestine crisis

Radhe is a collection of action sequences piled upon each other while Disha's tight dresses, some dance numbers, and goons saying 'apun' a lot, act as fillers. The action scenes are average right until the climax, which is when things get much worse. CGI helicopters are set on CGI fire and sent spiralling down the CGI sky as our hero and villain throw punches. It's the cheapest, ugliest piece of work you'd have seen in a long time. Give me Salman clanking like metal when he's hit with rods any day instead.

Salman and Prabhudeva are like the two kids in a classroom who are always up to no good -- creating trouble, setting the staff room on fire, or plotting to harass girls. Someone needed to assign them different seats two movies ago. They could start now.

Radhe

Directed by Prabhudeva

Starring Salman Khan, Randeep Hooda, Disha Patani, Jackie Shroff

via hindustan times


and this is a much more honest video review via@PrachiBJP


Watch video

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Rsatchi » 17 May 2021 17:18

disha wrote:
Toor dal prices in 2013 per quintal was @7300 Rs. In 2021, the same is Rs. 5300. That is a drop of @30%.

Wheat prices in 2013 per quintal was @2100 Rs. In 2021, the same is Rs. 1650-Rs.1950. That is the price is same.


I would expect the members of the BRF to think and at least identify what the BIF (assuming they work like Spectra from Bond movies) will target. For example why are they targeting Central Vista project? Why are they targeting Bullet Train? Why are they targeting Farm Laws? Why are they targeting "AtmaNirbhar Bharat"? Why is it that they do not recognize the great strides made in Vaccine development? Why are they targeting vaccine manufacturers (including the injustices of empire penguins)? Why are they targeting building of rail lines? Each one of them can either be classified into easing supply side constraints (reduces inflation) or employment opportunities.


*** Respect people who lost their livelihoods, their savings and more importantly their near and dear ones. They being upset is natural.

Dishaji
totally agree:
to those points add this :
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/vid ... 688506.cms
Farmers are wasting the veg crops especially Tamatur!! :D
Why should we stop trade with Pak!! agree to their demands and open trade so we can sell Tamatur/Shimla Mirch/Pyaaz/Kashmiri Mirch and apples
Why in 70 yrs we have not built cold chain or packaging industry for veg (either tinned or fresh frozen) who care but Mudi should open Wagah Border!! :lol:

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Ambar » 17 May 2021 18:54

Dishaji, absolutely spot on ! We underestimate how much of UPAs unpopularity from the middle of their 2nd term until their decimation in 2014 was because of near hyperinflation situation in India especially in the consumer non-discretionary sector. People may not have understood UPAs contribution to burgeoning current account deficit and out of control fiscal deficit in their first term but there was no escaping the inflation in the 2nd term especially when that inflation started hitting the growth.

It is simple. It is the *economy*. As long as people regain back their livelihood and see an end to this ordeal, they will do the right thing. They did the right thing in 2014. They did the right thing in 2019. They did not realize that the UPA will do the wrong thing in 2009, inspite of 26/11 and daily attacks in Cashmere. They thought that the economy will continue to grow as it did from 2004-2009. They did not realize that UPA-2 will send the economy into stagflation. Stagnant growth and high relative inflation. This can be seen in the Daal-Roti price of the people.

Toor dal prices in 2013 per quintal was @7300 Rs. In 2021, the same is Rs. 5300. That is a drop of @30%.

Wheat prices in 2013 per quintal was @2100 Rs. In 2021, the same is Rs. 1650-Rs.1950. That is the price is same.

It boils down to Nirupa Roy declaring Mehngai kaa Jamana (era of cost). Elections will be won or lost on that wheel. The other wheel is "employment" opportunities. Or rather money-making opportunities. Think of Tesla dual drive motor cars. If Mehngai ka jamana (or inflation) comes in, and there is no "employment", then the ruling party will see reverse gear in their seats. Sometimes down to double digits. If Mehngai ka Jamana never comes in (that is there is no inflation) but there is no employment either, then it is a stalemate. Think of khichdi government of 90s.

If there is no inflation and overall job growth, then the ruling party will win hands down. Everything else is just plain noise.


The highlighted part is especially true. We on this forum were shocked when the results of 2009 elections came out but in reality it shouldnt have been a shock that people decided to overlook multi-billion rupees scams, terrible security situation, monthly bombings in all major cities, and our fellow citizens in our financial capital being massacred for 3 days straight on live TV. People overlooked all the above shortcomings (for the lack of a stronger word) of the incumbent government because the economy was still growing. The double digit inflation existed when we went to polls in 2009, infact year over year food inflation was close to 20% thanks to the global commodity price surge which took rice, wheat and lentils with it but there was also asset price inflation (stocks, real estate, rental incomes) and jobs, so the voters ignored everything else including high inflation and voted UPA back to power.

So to add to Dishaji 3 combinations - inflation+unemployment, stable prices/deflation + employment and stagflation+low jobs growth, there is a fourth combination which is inflation + high jobs growth, even with this scenario the incumbent government has a good chance of winning the elections and this is exactly what happened in 2009.

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Kaivalya » 17 May 2021 19:18

disha wrote:I totally understand that the forum members feel that members of BIF gets severe punishment, for example hung from their thumbs* till they squeal all their crimes on

So where do we go from here?***

Toor dal prices in 2013 per quintal was @7300 Rs. In 2021, the same is Rs. 5300. That is a drop of @30%.

Wheat prices in 2013 per quintal was @2100 Rs. In 2021, the same is Rs. 1650-Rs.1950. That is the price

If there is no inflation and overall job growth, then the ruling party will win hands down. Everything else is just plain

*** Respect people who lost their livelihoods, their savings and more importantly their near and dear ones. They being upset is natural.


Dishaji - appreciate all the above. Here is where I think the subtlety is :

1. We know that there is a fake outrage machine that is well coordinated and amplified by the BIF domestically and internationally. To your point we dont have to identify BIF but we can try and neutralize their action

2. While I agree with your opinion on toordal price, It would be nice to have a WhatsApp forward etc. to reduce the mind share gained by BIF. The important aspect being 4-5 responses amplified. For example I posted chetakjis kujliwal o2 cylinder story and ut gif to every forum that I participate in along with medium article on the origins of the virus. I make up 1 liners like "if election canvassing caused the spike why is mortality in MH highest" etc. "If there is a meeting about pandemic chaired by the PM what happened in the last 3 months" . I see the problem as : more the variety of responses to debunk fake outrage machine results in bhakt dismissals or more arguments. Amplified few might be more effective imho. Other unamplified reasons can be supplemented.

3. I dont understand much about the 2024 election contributing factors. I feel like, Mind share growth is always important in nation building even if it is not related to elections imho. It is harder for the common man to discern truth and we know BIF deploys emotion all the time. I had to correct people posting "man made disaster" to imply mudi to "chinese made disaster" so many times

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 17 May 2021 21:07

so, as per this dravidian guy, who exactly is auditing churches and madrasas and as per him, what is the mechanism that is being followed by them for doing that.

is any church or madrasa registered as a trust or society in TN


and, why the discrimination on religious grounds.

does this nonsense happen in any other country, anywhere else in the world with the majority community there


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