2021 Five State Elections

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Kati
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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby Kati » 12 Jun 2021 21:32

^^^^

Hope the central BJP leadership learns from the follies.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby KL Dubey » 12 Jun 2021 21:49

^^Indeed, that is the best we can do - hope and support. BJP is the organization with all the data (statistics, karyakarta reports, intelligence, etc) to make the most of. It is not our job to make them "see the light".

As I said, the 40% vote share, 18 LS seats, and 76 VS seats in WB was obtained through all sorts of resources and in a very short time...seasoned leaders, party organization, RSS, turncoats, "outsiders" (like PM/HM/UP CM etc) campaigning, etc etc. It has been a steep and urgent rise with little time (or room) for introspection. Now that a political space has been established, things will mature, useless stuff will be discarded (or exit on their own like the recent fellow), lessons will be digested, and strategies shaped for further growth. That is what a well-funded party machinery does/is supposed to be doing full time in between elections. If BJP is not doing this on its own, nothing and nobody can save them. Why waste time second-guessing that.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby chetak » 12 Jun 2021 22:17

Not to worry.

The BJP these days wins more than it loses and net net that is a gain.

The next round is punjab.

the SAD has already tied up with the BSP to try and divide or mop up a majority of the non jat votes

But the BJP has kept up the tempo on the MSP and DBT without losing ground.

The BIF will now engineer violence as the elections get closer and things get hotter.

They need a credible non jat but sikh CM face declared well in advance

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby KL Dubey » 13 Jun 2021 01:00

Hoping for swift and long-overdue closure of this thread.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby ramana » 13 Jun 2021 02:15

So Ambar if we put Petrol in the GST regime with middle-level tax for it's not a luxury item then it will bring the prices down.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby ramana » 13 Jun 2021 02:16

KL Dubey wrote:Hoping for swift and long-overdue closure of this thread.



The Indian way is to exhaust the debate and catharsis. So why the rush to close it?
It will close when nothing more to say.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby Ambar » 13 Jun 2021 02:29

ramana wrote:So Ambar if we put Petrol in the GST regime with middle-level tax for it's not a luxury item then it will bring the prices down.


Yes, both INC and BJP have from time to time spoken about bringing petroleum products under GST regime but states are not willing parties. High taxation states like MH and KAR will see their tax revenue reduce if fuel & gas goes under GST. Some people do understand that the high price of petroleum products in India is a byproduct of high taxation by both center and state governments but where it gets difficult to defend the center is when they increase the excise when international prices dip .

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby Rahul M » 13 Jun 2021 16:43

KL Dubey wrote:^^Very good. Only one question: have you sent it to the BJP leadership? If not, this detailed analysis has nearly zero value since it will only be read by BRF wallahs like us.

by that token everything discussed in the forum is of zero value, which begs the question, why are you wasting your time here ? :D

KL Dubey wrote:Ultimately, these hair-splitting analyses do not serve much purpose. Mostly seem biased towards the writer's personal view and a few inputs from a small set of people.

And yet, the very next day after I wrote this 'biased by personal view' piece, one major chunk of my premise was proven by the exit of the person BJP put its trust in to pull off WB elections.
Clearly, my 'personal biases' seem to be reflected in reality.

Every political campaign has quirks and tradeoffs...its not like running a corporate setup. The party internal analysis will have the most detailed picture...if they use that to benefit next time, good. Else, not much anyone can do.

The BJP setup in WB is still at an immature stage, because of its rapid growth from a very low base. It will take time to mature and stabilize. It takes a few elections to get there. I am sure Amit Shah will not relent on this.
cliched platitudes borrowed from lazy talking heads dont really add anything to the understanding, unless the objective is to shield the leadership from all criticism. If that's the objective one would think that's being ultra over-jealous, the top duo are seasoned campaigners and dont need to be 'protected' from random criticism on an internet forum.
Looking at the BJP vote share trends:

LS: 6% (2009), 17% (2014), 41% (2019)
VS: 4% (2011), 10% (2016), 38% (2021)

Conclusions:

1) The vote share has been rising meteorically.
2) VS vote shares have trailed LS by a few %.
3) Conversely, LS elections after VS have increased dramatically the vote shares.
4) Assuming maturation of the WB BJP, one would predict a large sweep in LS 2024 and a likely capture of power in VS 2026.

If you had actually bothered to read the 3 pieces, you would know that BJP regressed in both VS elections due to self-inflicted decisions. The next election would be *much* harder to win, because ROP % will go up by another 1-2% and also because TMC has lost all fear of the central machinery, it has discovered it can do pretty much what it wants because GOI is unable/unwilling to stop it for whatever reasons.
That you consider a failure to increase vote share against a much hated party as a success tells us all really.
That way lies the Bharatiya Janata Congress. :wink:
Given the fact that the BJP has a record of making terrible decisions when it comes to WB, blind faith in the decision making ability of the party is clearly misplaced.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby Rahul M » 13 Jun 2021 17:00

Kakkaji wrote:Great analysis Rahul M!

Who are the resident Bengali leaders in BJP now with the potential to take the BJP over the top in Bengal? Does Suvendu Adhikary fit the bill? Or is it going to be back to Dilip Ghosh. There are rumours of Mukul Roy being moved to the Central Cabinet.

There are also rumours that Kailash Vijayvargiya will be replaced by Smriti Irani as in-charge of WB. Any comments?

Thanks sir. Please do read Part I and II as well (link at top of Part - III : Cause of defeat - what BJP got wrong)

Unfortunately there aren't too many options. Shubhendu is still new and has to prove his ideological moorings and spent at least 5 yrs in the party before he can be handed over the reigns.
Dilip Ghosh is a street fighter but has two problems, having spent most of his life out of the state his connect to local sensibilities is lacking and he has a very bad tendency to shoot his mouth off offending all and sundry.
The issue arises from BJP's reluctance to unearth talent and lack of trust in locals. Strangely, you do not see these dynamics in other non-hindi speaking states, say Karnataka or Assam. This has to go and they need to focus on discovering talents in two primary areas :
a) student & youth leaders - committed, smart folk with organising skills need to be identified, subjected to an orientation course, given responsibilities and re-evaluated after a year. Done well, this will give BJP an organic growth to sustain the party for the next decade
b) spokesperson who can defend the BJP viewpoint in media : they should hold open contests to identify these since more knowledgeable & mature people would be needed, primarily one should look at college/university faculties & lawyers.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby Rahul M » 13 Jun 2021 17:26

KL Dubey wrote:Basically the party ran a high-octane campaign with a "we are winning" message (what else can one expect them to do)...you can call it a over-hyped campaign if you want.....but the electorate was just not ready to completely rout the TMC just yet. This created a huge disappointment especially in social media (the colloquial term is "KLPD"), hence a plethora of "hair-splitting" analyses.

In reality it was a very good result to get to 77 seats and basically erase any other opposition.

sorry, but that's simplistic to the point of being facile if you think you can describe an election as complex as WB in one line. if that's the reaction to criticism from ground in BJP circles be ready to be reduced to CPM level in the next elections.
I wrote this even before the elections, if BJP wins this time it will be a vote against the TMC and not for the BJP, for the party hadn't really done anything to earn it. It was getting the votes primarily because it was being considered as the best alternative to removing the TMC from power. Ultimately, its missteps prevented many people who would have otherwise voted for it to either stay away or vote for TMC, since
'A known devil is better than an unknown angel'. What did the BJP stand for in 2021 elections ?

Hindutva ? Caste wars ? ROP appeasement ? Anti-ROP policies ?
detaining bengali hindus as illegal migrants ? refusing to give citizenship to bengali hindus while giving the same to those from pakistan & afghanistan ?
No one could really tell.
The very fact that higher percentage of hindus voted for BJP in WB than the hindutva 'bastions' of MP, UP or Karnataka inspite of BJP's muddled campaign tells us of the antipathy for the TMC. That the BJP couldn't take advantage of it says it all.

Like I said, the party has all the detailed inputs and will take measures to see that things keep going upwards. This is how the BJP operates. There is no state in which the vote share came up sharply over a few elections and then stagnated below a winning level.
keep calm and trust ? :mrgreen:
It's been 10 years and we are at least 10 years(may be forever) behind where we should have been.
If elections were held right now BJP will find it hard to cross double figures, vote share would plummet to around 10%. I know many who took leave to go and vote for the party, would they bother again, for a party that doesn't care and is happy playing second fiddle to a murderous jihadi ?

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby Rahul M » 13 Jun 2021 17:31

shaun wrote:
Karan M wrote:
Constantly shooting the messenger and running down the credibility of the analysis by claiming it is biased doesn't help ......


Rahulji good analysis, but it defies logic how come people there have no aspiration or atleast have the dream for better future within the state . I guess they love status quo and are nostalgic , taking pride on personalities of bygone Era with misplaced exclusivity . Hindi speakers though accommodated , can not be part of the main discourses there. What I feel is 35 years of left rule had broken the backbone of Bengali spirit . Remember a regressive govt ruling for 35 long years with their anti center slogans which still resonates . While large part of the city used to be in dark due to frequent load shedding, bhodroloks were on street to protest American imperialism in Vietnam!! Solidarity for Palestine!! You speak with any random bhodroloks about economy , the first charge they will make is , modi sarkar is selling govt companies and helping Adani Ambani, these same set of people might have suffered a lot during bsnl era but will protest any disinvestment of it !! No one is bothered about large scale development and industries . Just look at their Metro development, how much km they have added to their system for last 3 decades . Glacial speed. The aspirational bengalis have migrated with a very small set of nationalist left.

Thanks shaun.

I have two questions for you.
a) Do people from UP, MP, Karnataka, Delhi etc have "no aspiration or atleast have the dream for better future within the state" ?? If they do, why do you think people from WB don't ?

b) what is a bhadrolok ? Do you think me and other bongs on this forum belong to that group ? Do you ?

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby shaun » 13 Jun 2021 18:18

Rahul M wrote:
shaun wrote:
Rahulji good analysis, but it defies logic how come people there have no aspiration or atleast have the dream for better future within the state . I guess they love status quo and are nostalgic , taking pride on personalities of bygone Era with misplaced exclusivity . Hindi speakers though accommodated , can not be part of the main discourses there. What I feel is 35 years of left rule had broken the backbone of Bengali spirit . Remember a regressive govt ruling for 35 long years with their anti center slogans which still resonates . While large part of the city used to be in dark due to frequent load shedding, bhodroloks were on street to protest American imperialism in Vietnam!! Solidarity for Palestine!! You speak with any random bhodroloks about economy , the first charge they will make is , modi sarkar is selling govt companies and helping Adani Ambani, these same set of people might have suffered a lot during bsnl era but will protest any disinvestment of it !! No one is bothered about large scale development and industries . Just look at their Metro development, how much km they have added to their system for last 3 decades . Glacial speed. The aspirational bengalis have migrated with a very small set of nationalist left.

Thanks shaun.

I have two questions for you.
a) Do people from UP, MP, Karnataka, Delhi etc have "no aspiration or atleast have the dream for better future within the state" ?? If they do, why do you think people from WB don't ?

b) what is a bhadrolok ? Do you think me and other bongs on this forum belong to that group ? Do you ?


1.Well , Bengal used to be the capital of Raj , apart from abundant natural resources , the strategic location of Bengal made Calcutta a city that was prosperous , civic amenities that was world class etc. Only Bombay was comparable . Then how come such a city and the state as whole lost its sheen. International flights used to have stopover at dumdum , how many now compared to major Indian cities . I guess kolkata is not even counted as A1 city . You speak of UP MP KA what were their ranking few decades back compared to Bengal and how much progress they have made ? None of the states You mentioned vote for only one party . Oppositions are as strong as the ruling dispensation. How many people from UP MP or KA actually working in WB ??

2. A bhadrolok nationalist is quite a possibility but I will stick with nationalist and you are one of them . My endorsement is not required . Apologies .

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby Rahul M » 13 Jun 2021 18:21

ramana wrote:RahulM,
Thanks for the long and detailed analysis. Sure beats the pop analysis in media.
Yes, there were missteps and active measures by TMC that got them the majority.

Can you compare and contrast Suvendhu Adhikari and Mukul Roy?

If anyone wants to analyze what did TMC do right, that turned the corner after the 2019 results, would be nice.

I did analyze what TMC got right in some detail in Part II of my analysis.
Part-I : The nature of the defeat
Part-II : Cause of defeat, what TMC got right
Part - III : Cause of defeat - what BJP got wrong

I guess not much is left to say on Mukul Roy. Day after I wrote this, he left and joined TMC :mrgreen:
The importance given to Mukul Roy is another subject of abiding mystery to WB politics watchers. Let me be very clear, Mukul Roy is no HBS. He is a backroom operator with no mass base unlike HBS, his culpability in sarada etc scam was no less than any other TMC leader, he was never a popular leader and is far more hyped up than his ability suggests. State BJP supporters have always been embarrassed by him. It is barely tolerable to have him in the party but to have him lead ? It significantly dilutes the corruption charge against TMC. KV & co however started believing that Mukul Roy is some genius ala Himanta Biswa Sarma who will single handedly deliver WB to them. And Mukul Roy's single point policy was simply get as many TMC leaders as possible, without bothering about their ground support or credentials.

One wonders how many of these turncoats were actually working against the BJP ? Almost every single one other than Suvendhu Adhikari lost.

Coming to SA, his leadership credentials need to be proven further. However, he has held his ground during the overall reign of fear and given time should be able to rebuild a decent unit in his district and may be in one or two neighbouring ones. However, it would be mistake to hand over all of WB to him right away, he needs to shore up his own base because TMC will be coming for it with all guns blazing. This was a mistake BJP did in 2021 election, SA claimed that he could influence elections all over WB and leadership gave him that responsibility. Not only did the expected +ve outcome not happen, BJP severely underperformed in his home district where his family have a political base for decades.
One point in favour of Suvendu is that he is a rather excellent orator, possibly *the* best in WB right now and manages to get crowds moving in a way that no one else can. He can be a rare asset but BJP/RSS will have to set deliberate ideological red-lines for all its leaders on a regular basis.

Smriti Irani has supposedly taken over as WB in charge and I believe it is a better choice than the previous worthies. She however needs a trusted sherpa to guide her among the politico-cultural landscape and I hope she finds a capable one, because a lot will depend on this person's readings of the situation and Smriti Irani's willingness to listen to him/her. BJP should look for a low profile intellectual, who is resident of the state and has never been a communist sympathiser, at least in the last 30 years.
On the political front, in addition to the talent search, I would rather see WB being managed by 4-5 local leaders each managing a cluster of districts instead of one party president calling all the shots. This is because no leader right now has the state wide stature to command respect of all units of the state.
And for heaven's sake BJP should stop wasting energy for cringy ROP appeasement, if we wanted that why on earth would we change from TMC ?

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby Rahul M » 13 Jun 2021 18:40

Santosh wrote:RahulM, good insightful analysis. What impact did Khela hobe have on bengali voters? It was an open threat after first 2 or 3 phases when BJP was estimated to have done much better than expected. The violence was kicked to next level and BJP leaders and convoys were openly attacked. BJP leaders themselves seemed vulnerable. Many were injured. All they did was whine on twitter. The message it delivered to bengali voter was clear. Once the elections are over and central forces and leaders are gone, you are at TMC mercy - whether TMC lose or win. BJP started strong but lost the streets and that won't end well. If I am a Bengali voter, I will think twice if the risk is worth the benefit. In hind sight, 77 seems like a good performance given Bjp's helplessness.

I think BJP severely underestimated TMC's willingness to adopt violent methods in order to achieve its objectives. It was still expecting TMC to follow mores of parliamentary democracy, at least once the elections were over. They were clearly blindsided and shows their lack of understanding of elections in post left WB, this has always been the case, so much so cong had been pavlov trained to stop trying and post 2011 CPM was uprooted with such violence that it has not been able to come back ever again.

Khela Hobe did have an effect and I have written about it in some detail in Part II of the analysis (please see earlier post for link)

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby darshan » 13 Jun 2021 18:46

Rahul M wrote:And for heaven's sake BJP should stop wasting energy for cringy ROP appeasement, if we wanted that why on earth would we change from TMC ?


True for centuries. Certainly if Hindus wanted that then there would not have been 1947 partition. All Islamists wanted was for Hindus to take a backseat and keep paying to islamists to allow Hindus to exist as ATM.

No appeasing of Hindus while appeasing non Hindus is very hard to hide.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby Rahul M » 13 Jun 2021 19:02

A Deshmukh wrote:Good analysis RahulM. Much needed critical view.

It was bad defeat. elections that BJP should have won.

but in the long run, it can be converted into good
- get rid of bad imports from TMCs who are not committed or are corrupt.
- get rid of local leaders who have achieved success only on Modi's reputation.
- course correction in terms of cultural imposition and promote more local leaders.

We were always apprehensive of over dependence on Modi to win local state elections.
We have seen this again and again - Bihar, Delhi.

I hope so too.

Unfortunately post election antics by IT cell affiliated handles have given me little cause to hope. There are three main themes emerging out of BJP's response to the defeat

a) aall izz well, we did good, slyly comparing the 2016 numbers without mentioning 2019

b) doubling down on the caste narrative, bhadralok UC's are apparently suppressing 'subaltern hindutva' LC's, while people of WB are going
Image
The BJP comes across as particularly clueless clinging to an anti-hindutva leftist/bheem party narrative,worse, a 'failed' anti-hindutva leftist/bheem party narrative.

c) started talking of dividing the state into 2 or 3 parts, separating darjeeling district into Gorkhaland. Never mind that Gorkhaland is a church backed movement with its founders having asked for support from the western countries, Pakistan and most likely China. If India carves out Gorkhaland it will likely start clamouring to join Nepal, cutting off India from the NE, which is wet dream of every sub-continental jihadi and apparently now also shared by the hindu nationalist party ! :eek: FWIW, Gorkhaland has previously threatened to join Pakistan or Bangladesh, so joining Nepal is a lesser evil.
Like congress in AP, if BJP actually moves in this direction it's curtains for the party in WB.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby vimal » 13 Jun 2021 19:56

If India carves out Gorkhaland it will likely start clamouring to join Nepal
:rotfl:
Where'd you get that idea from?
Gorkhaland is a demand for state within the union of India. If there is Telangana and Chattisgarh so can there be Gorkhaland. Its better to create GL now when there is still time left before WB official turns into East Pakistan.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby Rahul M » 13 Jun 2021 21:04

Rsatchi wrote:RahulMji
A question or two :
1. was the defection of all and sundry from TMC to BJP a 'Trojan Horse', reason I am asking is because of so many Ghar-wpasi's and mainly Mukul Roy!
>> some definitely were. BJP followed Mukul's methodology for the most part it and came a cropper. what does that indicate ?

2. How much of this was PK's move

>> hard to tell unless you are PK or MB ! but PK and IPAC did have a big part to play.

3. Given PK's tactics (2014, UP. Bihar et al) why did BJP think tank not have any counter moves.
BJP didn't have its own campaign in order, forget being nimble enough to counter TMC.
And to answer Santoshji's question : Open Threat to Bengali voters (with a silent Central Govt) the main cause??
>> it's too simplistic to say so, violence alone cannot carry the day in WB or result in a 10% vote difference, where people are quite willing to counter violence with violence if they get adequate support from their party. There are myriad reasons that CANNOT be simplified in a line. There are 2 aspects in terms of what TMCC got right & BJP got wrong, both with multiple factors that add up to that 10% vote margin. I wrote about those factors in Part II & Part III respectively. Simplifying it to one single factor might look attractive but it would be misleading and you would end up drawing wrong lessons from it.
But I have another view : whether the Central Govt had advance info of the impending second wave and hence was concentrating on combating that and took the pedal off the Bengal motor!!!

>> I dont think BJP took the foot away from the pedal for COVID and rightly so. You might remember there was quite a bit of criticism from DDM regarding this. Do note that this had absolutely zero impact on BJP's chances, irrespective of what DDM might claim. WB takes politics seriously and people respected the fact that BJP leaders braved COVID to continue to campaign. TMC is and will be a bigger threat than COVID to the well being of WB and India.


My comments in red.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby Rahul M » 13 Jun 2021 21:07

vimal wrote:
If India carves out Gorkhaland it will likely start clamouring to join Nepal
:rotfl:
Where'd you get that idea from?
Gorkhaland is a demand for state within the union of India. If there is Telangana and Chattisgarh so can there be Gorkhaland. Its better to create GL now when there is still time left before WB official turns into East Pakistan.

Please do look up the history of the movement. It has always been a church backed movement with support of foreign powers including Pakistan.
I used to be naive about this but when you get all the facts in place there's only one conclusion you can draw.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby Rahul M » 13 Jun 2021 21:14

ramana wrote:
Yagnasri wrote:Good that BJP getting some lessons. Mukul Roys ( or Jatin Prasadas) are only fair whether friends. Not all coming in to the Parties are going to be Hemantha Bishwa Sharmas. Party now has to take care of the ground workers and their families in WB.


looks like all supporters are busy teaching lessons to BJP. Hope they don't suffer from those lessons like those who taught Kakatiyas.

From my vantage, I would put all those deaths and violence on those who were hell-bent on teaching BJP lessons. Hope they are happy and can sleep peacefully.

Even after the Kakatiya defeat, those who wanted to teach a lesson regretted for their intent was not to cause the defeat.
In a battle what do you expect when you undercut your own side?

Sir, no one other than the new-age sudheendra kulkarnis (whom the party loves so much nowadays) want to teach it a lesson. All want it to learn the lessons being taught to it by the situation on the ground however.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby Rahul M » 13 Jun 2021 21:22

Supratik wrote:I will give my brief analysis without taking anything away from RahulM. Two other major factors were there in 2021 WB election. The WB economy has grown at a CAGR (combined annual growth rate) of 10.5% in the last five years i.e. the economy has basically doubled. This is big for a state that was in poverty for long. It is similar to Bihar where the JDU-BJP coalition has delivered doubling of the economy every 5-6 years since it came to power. With this kind of growth it is hard to dislodge the incumbent. The other reason is that in 2019 people voted for Modi because he had delivered several things through his schemes. In 2021 the fight was all about Mamata as BJP did not have a CM face who could convince voters of even greater prosperity or cleaner and better governance. So people ignored the corruption and communalism, goondagiri and voted for Mamata. The moral of the story is that every election is different and you have to use different strategies. What RahulM has said may have led to further erosion of support.

Supratik da, I have mentioned the economic upturn in Part II of my analysis (Part-II : Cause of defeat, what TMC got right)
It was certainly one factor but there were many factors, therein lies the smartness of PK's moves. BJP could perhaps have countered one or two moves but they couldn't hope to do that for half a dozen. In short, even discounting BJP's self-inflicted mistakes, they were strategically & tactically outplayed by TMC/IPAC.

I dont think lack of CM face was a big factor and in any case, when no leader had truly separated himself/herself from the pack it would have been counter productive to announce one as the presumptive CM. It didn't hurt BJP in UP for example and in many cases the situations were similar, with huge anti incumbency. In any case, MB of 2021 is not MB of 2011 or even 2016 and her personal charishma is nowhere what it used to be.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby Rahul M » 13 Jun 2021 21:30

arshyam wrote:Rahul M-da, I hope you are looking to publish your analysis in a publication like Swarajya or OpIndia. This needs to be widely disseminated, and your efforts should not go waste.

I won't but people are free to use and disseminate, no need to acknowledge me either.

As for swarajya, I doubt they will publish it, some senior swarajya columnists were at the forefront of the 'evil bhadralok' & 'subaltern hindutva' propaganda movement. Even the political attacks were being spun by them (and BJP leaders) as 'attacks on SC' when the attacks were either M on H or TMC on BJP (in which case both victim & perpetrator almost invariably belonged to the same caste). When I pointed out the futility of doubling down on a disastrous electoral tactic they promptly blocked me. :lol:

Please remember that I have been a swarajya subscriber since the first year it was published, so this certainly doesn't come from any animosity towards the publication.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby vimal » 13 Jun 2021 21:54

Rahul M wrote:
vimal wrote: :rotfl:
Where'd you get that idea from?
Gorkhaland is a demand for state within the union of India. If there is Telangana and Chattisgarh so can there be Gorkhaland. Its better to create GL now when there is still time left before WB official turns into East Pakistan.

Please do look up the history of the movement. It has always been a church backed movement with support of foreign powers including Pakistan.
I used to be naive about this but when you get all the facts in place there's only one conclusion you can draw.


Then should've been easy to do during British rule when the demand first originated? You are clutching at straws here.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby KL Dubey » 13 Jun 2021 21:58

Rahul M wrote:sorry, but that's simplistic to the point of being facile if you think you can describe an election as complex as WB in one line. if that's the reaction to criticism from ground in BJP circles be ready to be reduced to CPM level in the next elections.


No, it is indeed the summary in one line.

Everybody knows how complex the elections in large states like UP, WB, etc are. The point was that all the information and analysis you are presenting (which I have no argument with) is already with the BJP. It is not a new perspective, nor based on new information that the party does not already have.

Sure, it could be educational for some BRF members, but from past experience I know it will not be used in that sense. Rather it will just be used by some members to delude themselves that they have found the true answers that explain the results, and why on earth the party is not listening/taking things seriously ? And of course, if the party does well in the next election, such members will pat themselves on the back as if the party had nothing else to do but read their posts. If it doesn't do well, then another round of complaints and "I told you so, should have listened to us".

Please don't create a straw man by referring to "reaction to criticism from BJP circles". The fact is that everything is being looked at far more seriously and in detail than anything you or I can do on BRF.

And, I hope one day a realization dawns that such "back seat driving" has no actual ability to influence things. On the other hand, it has the opposite effect of demoralizing people. Frankly, most people browse such forums to find positivity of support BJP and other nationalist forces, not to find detailed analysis of "everything that can and did go wrong". Consider sending such detailed analysis privately to where it matters (and to individual members interested), and just post a short summary here with balanced positives and criticisms.

In other words, if it's politically/strategically important, send it to the party where it matters, don't post details here.

Your call.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby vera_k » 13 Jun 2021 22:12

shaun wrote:1.Well , Bengal used to be the capital of Raj , apart from abundant natural resources , the strategic location of Bengal made Calcutta a city that was prosperous , civic amenities that was world class etc. Only Bombay was comparable . Then how come such a city and the state as whole lost its sheen.


FWIW, Brittanica has a good explanation. Sadly WB has not been able to reimagine a future after partition.

Capital of British India

In 1947 the partition of Bengal between newly independent India and Pakistan constituted a serious setback for Calcutta, which became the capital of West Bengal only, losing the trade of a part of its former hinterland.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby Shameek » 13 Jun 2021 22:28

And, I hope one day a realization dawns that such "back seat driving" has no actual ability to influence things. On the other hand, it has the opposite effect of demoralizing people. Frankly, most people browse such forums to find positivity of support BJP and other nationalist forces, not to find detailed analysis of "everything that can and did go wrong".


Dubey sir, I will respectfully disagree. This type of analysis is exactly why I have followed this forum for many years now. To get a perspective and data points that mainstream media and WhatsApp forwards do not provide. This in fact helps me share the points with friends and family and has changed many a perspective over the years. I do not think a BJP supporter would read this and stop supporting the party or be demoralized. I believe (or hope) everyone on this forum loves India and wants whats best for our country. That should not translate into just back-slapping each other on what is good and ignoring the rest. We love our family, and yet we would all agree that they are not always right.

I understand that no one that 'matters' may read or care about this forum. But that does not mean we stop this type of discussion or analysis. Else, there is little point talking about any topic here.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby darshhan » 13 Jun 2021 23:11

Hahaha. Even a third rate political scamster like Mukul Roy is now trolling BJP. Both nature and politics abhor weakness.

Mukul Roy asks centre to withdraw his Z category security

Former union minister Mukul Roy who recently returned back to the Trinamool Congress after spending four years in the BJP has written to the Central government requesting it to withdraw his Z category security, Times of India has reported.

As per the report, as Roy has gone back to the TMC, the threats against him are presumed to no longer exist.

"It could be assumed that the threat was no longer valid", a central official has been quoted as saying, who adds that as the request has been made by Roy himself, it may be accepted.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby darshhan » 13 Jun 2021 23:16

Rahul M wrote:
arshyam wrote:Rahul M-da, I hope you are looking to publish your analysis in a publication like Swarajya or OpIndia. This needs to be widely disseminated, and your efforts should not go waste.

I won't but people are free to use and disseminate, no need to acknowledge me either.

As for swarajya, I doubt they will publish it, some senior swarajya columnists were at the forefront of the 'evil bhadralok' & 'subaltern hindutva' propaganda movement. Even the political attacks were being spun by them (and BJP leaders) as 'attacks on SC' when the attacks were either M on H or TMC on BJP (in which case both victim & perpetrator almost invariably belonged to the same caste). When I pointed out the futility of doubling down on a disastrous electoral tactic they promptly blocked me. :lol:

Please remember that I have been a swarajya subscriber since the first year it was published, so this certainly doesn't come from any animosity towards the publication.



Some rumors were circulating on social media that Swarajya was funded by BJP in the recent past. If that is the correct news, then your valuable insights will not be printed there.

Better you start your own blog and share that blog on social media for maximum views.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby Maria » 13 Jun 2021 23:39

Rahul da if we to disseminate these valuable insights, will it be possible for you to consolidate the 3 parts into one somewhere so that we can start spreading this? Hope I am not asking for too much as a newbie here?

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby KL Dubey » 14 Jun 2021 03:24

Shameek wrote:....


Equally respectfully, what I wrote earlier is not what you understood and replied to. I'm all for discussion and analysis. Just not the gory details, which should not be openly offered. There are things like private messaging for people who want all the detail.

We are too open, too critical of our own, and too debate-oriented, for our own good.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby KL Dubey » 14 Jun 2021 03:26

darshhan wrote:Better you start your own blog and share that blog on social media for maximum views.


I suggest you too should do the same, instead of posting on BRF.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby Vayutuvan » 14 Jun 2021 06:22

vimal wrote:Gorkhaland is a demand for state within the union of India. If there is Telangana and Chattisgarh so can there be Gorkhaland. Its better to create GL now when there is still time left before WB official turns into East Pakistan.


The critical difference is that TS and CG are in the middle of India. They do not even have a coastline to join somebody across a sea/ocean.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby nandakumar » 14 Jun 2021 07:55

Vayutuvan wrote:
vimal wrote:Gorkhaland is a demand for state within the union of India. If there is Telangana and Chattisgarh so can there be Gorkhaland. Its better to create GL now when there is still time left before WB official turns into East Pakistan.


The critical difference is that TS and CG are in the middle of India. They do not even have a coastline to join somebody across a sea/ocean.

But that's the case with Gorkhaland too. It is surrounded by Assam on the East, Bihar to the West, West Bengal to the South and Himalayas to the North.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby Kati » 14 Jun 2021 12:00

Looks like the departure of Mukul Roy and a few others from BJP (to TMC) has actually energized the state BJP.

Sangh has sighed a big relief.

VHP has issued a statement to bring up budding leaders from the grass-root level. Within a month state BJP will undergo
a good amount of changes. As per TV news,Nishit Pramanik will get a central post among other changes.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby Venkarl » 15 Jun 2021 00:49

It is time to break WB and carve out a new UT from Maldah to Darjeeling to Cooch Bihar comprising 8 districts.
These districts are too green in WB demographic map.
GoI intelligence top brass should think of ideas as to what will it take to trigger such an 'action' lawfully from Centre and the entire nation would support it.
But this must happen at any cost. We all know it is turning out to be another Kashmir.
This should bring 2 things under control.
1. TMC's illegal vote bank cut
2. Limit any China's agenda of doing any mischief behind this illegal populace.

"Someone" has to play real dirty other wise WB ko khuda hafiz boldo bharat vaasiyo.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby KLNMurthy » 15 Jun 2021 03:23

KL Dubey wrote:
Shameek wrote:....


Equally respectfully, what I wrote earlier is not what you understood and replied to. I'm all for discussion and analysis. Just not the gory details, which should not be openly offered. There are things like private messaging for people who want all the detail.

We are too open, too critical of our own, and too debate-oriented, for our own good.


I am confused.

Sounds like you want to shut down open analysis, review and criticism. "Too open" seems to be a fig leaf--what exactly is "just open enough" and who decides that? You?

And what is the purpose in shutting down analyses like Rahul M's? Are you saying that detailed analysis of the kind Rahul M provided should be kept private? Because, what? It demoralizes BJP rank-and-file who may read it?

But weren't you also saying that it is useless for him to post the analysis here because no one from the BJP will read it?

Rahul M made a very compelling case that BJP lost an election which it should have and could have won, due to sheer ineptitude. I didn't see any post from you refuting that conclusion, or even a claim that it was an unfair or unwarranted conclusion. You just claimed (on what basis?) that all that is already known to the BJP (meaning that they already understand their mistakes). But if they are already (within a relatively short period, considering the time that process takes in a large organization) aware of all of Rahul M's analysis, that means they have a high capacity to conduct such a critical analysis and absorb its results. Can a party with such a capacity make all these errors in the first place?

if the BJP "already knows" everything and Rahul M was just showcasing his own bias (as per you) then what further harm to the BJP can take place due to Rahul M airing his analysis in this forum? One that, according to you, no one from the BJP really reads anyway?

Any light you can shed would be welcome.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby fanne » 15 Jun 2021 04:51

KL Dubey wrote:
darshhan wrote:Better you start your own blog and share that blog on social media for maximum views.


I suggest you too should do the same, instead of posting on BRF.



I second that!!!

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby Kati » 15 Jun 2021 06:08

Those with ears on the ground in WB please help me validate some of the points below. RahulM-Saar, Supratik-da and Maria-bhai - please take note. I have been going through all the available info, rumors, - you name it.

1. Apparently ABP group wants to be the kingmaker in WB politics. Is it their anchor Suman De who played the go between for Mukul Roy and Mumtaaz Banoo to seal the deal for the former's return to TMC? ... Please share your thoughts on this matter.

2. Mukul Roy (MR) wanted to be the unquestioned poll manager for WB state BJP which was opposed by the party old-timers tooth and nail. They cited the reason that MR still had trouble to chant Jai Sri Ram without any hesitation even after going through the panchatyat election in 2018 and GE2019. He took the bong proverbial stand of "grabbing the fish without touching the water" policy which irked the party insiders.

3. In the 2021 AE he wanted to have the absolute power of managing the poll, including finalizing the list of candidates. But he was dismayed that the central leadership not only allowed that to happen, but also he was asked to contest the election to get him entrenched into the party system. He did contest gingerly, and he was given a very safe seat. However, he wanted to remain as a backroom boy, and was more interested in having a safe seat for his son Subhranshu Roy. Even though MR joined BJP a few years earlier, his son was not keen at all in leaving TMC, but did so at the last moment on MR's strong insistence, with the hope that BJP would win, and him getting a plump post. Father - son had a little tiff on this matter.

4. State BJP insiders also noted alarmingly that MR, though criticized TMC, he was very soft on MB, and didn't launch any strong attack on her as Subhendu Adhikary did. Hence he kept his door open to rapprochement with MB. MB also has taken a stand ,post election, that those turn-coats who went soft on MB would be accommodated if returned, but not those who went hammer and tong on her.

5. Very shocking is the fact that MR met with PK twice on the nick of the election. This has made some insiders claim that MR was indeed a Trojan horse, and he was giving details of BJP's plans to PK. (Among others, ex-state prez Sri Tathagata Roy is most vocal about this.)

6. Post election, MR will be used to expand TMC's footprint outside of Bengal, as MB aspires to be the PM someday. Now that TMC has wrested the state power without MR, his need within the state will be minimal, and hence he is supposed to play a larger national role for TMC.

7. MR will be elected as a TMC Rajyasabha member, and his son would be given a safer seat in the next round of by-election.

8. For TMC's all India reach, journalist Abhra Sarkar has opined that PK has already met NCP supremo SP, and they, along with MR, will meet Shahrukh Khan to rope in his entertainment company for launching sleek media campaign. SK is very close to MB for obvious reasons.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby Ambar » 15 Jun 2021 07:27

Pt 8 - you mean a 3rd front with Mamata Banerjee as the PM face ? or TMC to contest elections in all states ? In either case someone as savvy and sophisticated as PK would know such a plan is dead in the water. That they will have another go with the 3rd front is a given, if they do manage some seats they will seek outside support from INC and the end result will be the same it was in 80s and 90s . All this Mamata/Sharad Pawar as 3rd front PM candidate theories aside, maybe there is something in Madhu Kishwar's ramblings about PK inserting himself as the PM candidate from the 3rd front. It wouldn't be unwise to look at that possible angle more closely.

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Re: 2021 Five State Elections

Postby ramana » 15 Jun 2021 12:48

Kati, Your 6 and 8 could be accurate.
Ambar, MB will be hidden face and revealed after all the dust is settled.
NCP is walking zombies


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