The rapidly crystallizing global world order of the 21st c and the role of the US in birthing it
(Analysis / Essay)
The focal point of all geo-political analyses, these days, has coagulated under the central theme of the rise of China and measures to counter/contain/manage it.
However, I feel all such analyses are misguided or deliberately obfuscate, the reality of how geo-politics is likely to shape. The real principles governing the rise of a new world order and its accompanying geo-politics can be gleaned quite easily if one understands the following,
1. Global corporations own Nations
: Globally nation states, especially those in the West are now completely beholden to the massive global corporates. This means the policy and action that nations take up, shall be dictated by what corporates have always wanted and will always want - maximizing profits and share holder returns. I do not think that this point requires much explanation. Corporate lobbies and how money controls politicians is a fairly well established fact.
2. The paramount priority of global corporations and ergo the nations they control - is the undisputed and unimpeded rise of China
: If we look at projections of consumer market size and value growth, for the coming 30 years, it becomes amply clear that - firstly China is expected to grow to almost 3-4 times of where it is today. By contrast other G20 economies with perhaps the exception of India and a few others, will either shrink in terms of consumers available or shrink/stagnate in terms of average consumer spend.
A good sense of the shift that I am referring to, can be had by eyeballing this report: https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/research-insi ... -2050.html
Ask yourself, if you were the Chairman of a Fortune 50 firm or the CEO of a trillion dollar asset management firm, whose job only depends on churning double digit growth figures to your shareholders every quarter after quarter - how would you do achieve that, if you were to ignore China? It is simply impossible.
Over the coming 30 years, US-Western Europe-Japan, who perhaps account for 40-50% of global consumption demand would have shrunk to 20-25%. Worse still the populations would have aged considerably - how do you sell fast food, sneakers and fast fashion to a cohort of 45-50+ year olds?
Contrast that to China. As it stands, Greater China (ie Mainland+HK+Macao and in some cases Taiwan) accounts for 25-40% consumer consumption for almost all global corporates. In some cases, for instance Hollywood box-office, gaming or merchandise sales - consumer spending in China, already exceeds that of the US!
And remember, this is when in the post COVID world, most countries face high inflation and a general "pooring" of their populations, while China and its people grow richer (and never mind the hype around Evergrande etc, its just the 'Three Gorges is collpasing' syndrome) - and will continue to grow in size and spending power by leaps and bounds in the next 30-50 years.
I recall from some older posts, that a lot of the old members of the board already foresaw this quite clearly fact - that the Khan and China were always thick as thieves. But for me personally, the actions of the corrupt Biden administration (not that Trump and the phony trade war was very different!), have served the purpose of pulling off the veil quite decidedly.
Consider the following,
Gen Milley, calls a Chinese General, behind his president's back and says, “Things may look unsteady, but that’s the nature of democracy
" - when US supposedly champions and exports the same exact Democracy to the world. Heck, a few years back Milley explicitly stated that "China is not our enemy."
Xi Jinping's daughter studies in Harvard for 4 years under Obama admin, even as the US is well aware of what is happening to the **precious** human rights in Xin Jiang and how perniciously Chinese hackers are stealing from the US and murdering off its agents in China.
CCP awards Hunter Biden millions of dollars worth of scarcely concealed bribes, with Hunter requesting a separate set of keys for - Joe Biden - https://www.foxnews.com/politics/hunter ... c-chairman
All this of course, comes in a long line of tradition.
Nixon built the foundation for China's economic rise with the Shanghai communique.
Carter withdrew the defense treaty with Taiwan and erased it as a nation under the Taiwan Relations Act, tearing up the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty.
Regan armed China with 100s of Million dollar worth of advanced arms, artillery and avionics - https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/ ... dac46c6fc4
Clinton not only helped Chinese economy reach an inflection point by enabling its entry to the WTO and letting it become US' largest trade partner - he even helped China acquire ICBM technology - https://www.nytimes.com/1999/05/11/worl ... china.html
The list is endless. The only difference is that while before the US leaders held a semblance of dignity and formed policy to enable China's rise, they have now become its cup bearers and bed warmers. Biden begs for a face-face meeting with Xi and is publicly rebuffed!
Make no mistake, China is already the world's most powerful country, and more than China, it is the Western nations that want it so.
This is the central principle.
Yes, we may see moves like Australia being given nuclear subs or the odd Huawei CxO detained in Canada - but these are merely feints and pawn-like moves on the global geo-political chessboards. The moment China gives a trade or commercial concessions, such "resolves" will disappear into thin air.
It is important that India, recognizes the central principle and is not fooled by getting pulled into such feints as inevitably, they will only end one way - kowtowing to China once it begrudgingly granted the desired favor - leaving so called Western "allies and partners", high and dry to the tender mercies of China.
As China rises and NATO compromises to its wishes and withdraws its influence, we will see the emergence of regional power blocs. The two most worrying ones for us, in my view, will be - the renewed Ottoman empire (with sway over North Africa, the Stans and the Gulf). Even Russia perhaps - it is projected to be muslim majority in 30 years and who knows, by then we may see a Russian president praying together with the Turkish "khalifa" in Hagia Sophia.
The other power, shall be the renewed Persian empire (with sway over Iraq and the Levant). While these two mini-super powers will often be at odds with the other - both will naturally take up their old civilizational role of being inimical to India, the nation of infidels.
For China and by extension NATO and Iran as well as Turkey - shared interests would converge in, to borrow the term in vogue, "dismantling" India. A number of squabbling nations fighting over limited resources - and of course the traditional, caste/creed/language/religion - is what they would want to see. A captive, weak market that additionally serves up as a buffer between the China and the rest.
All of these aggressors - Islamic, Western powers and China perceive us as an accidental state, holding scores of nations at each others throats. A timid peoples, all to ready to be divided and ruled and eager to serve at the beck and call of outside masters. And given our hstory, heck even as matters stand today - who can blame them for believing so?
The ramifications of this crystallizing new world order are two-fold,1. Globally, enlightenment values of individual rights, liberty, democracy etc will increasingly vanish - resetting the gains for the human condition of the past 100s of years
2. Internally, India will face extremely high external pressure on its national sovereignty and infact its very existence as a nation state
Faced with such odds, it is important that more than Indian policy makers and leaders - Indian people
realize the crisis that we are at. If they decide, we can still be the masters of our own destiny and retain our rightful place in the world order. Afterall the same projections, also indicate India too will be a very large and lucrative marketplace.
The only way I see the analysis outlined above, not holding up, a sort of Pascal's wager if you will - is if there is a realization in NATO powers that a China, enthroned as numero uno, will end the progressive western values and individual rights. Frankly, given the vested interests of corporates and the sheer power at their behest I do not see this happening.
The only way the stranglehold of corporations is challenged can be by leftist popular movements. Corporations have this covered already - the so called BLM, LGBT, Green and other such movements are for the most part controlled by Corporate interests and figureheads such as the notorious George Soros. They are compromised at their very birth - a controlled opposition. And even such movements ultimately look up to China. Thus the hedge is already in place.
Our ancestors, preserved dharmic values and culture - for 300 years against the Turks, 400 years against the Moguls and 200 years against the Europeans. They performed Jauhars and Sakas. Men reconquered lands that had been lost for hundreds of years right till the Attock. Women fought in the battlefield with babies tied to their backs. For what? To preserve Dharma.
Like those hundreds of years, we too can tide this period of global dominance by an evil, autocratic, God-less and merciless China and its Western lackeys. IF, we remember what's important and why it is worth fighting for.
For me personally, UP elections will mark a great bell-weather. If Yogi looses, combined with the loss in Bengal - it will give enough momentum to the opposition to oust Namo in 2024. Then we are right back to potentially decades of chaos and strife. And given the external factors described above, it will make the 80s and early 90s period as India experienced them, seem like a time of amazing peace and prosperity.
As long as we are sorted within, we can crush anything that the world throws at us. If not, we already have the history of the past 1000 years to teach us what happens next.