2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

CalvinH · Post by **CalvinH** » 25 Jan 2021 01:08

Ambar wrote:Khan saab, there is nothing Amit Shah or any HM can do. This is India where it is not hard to gather 5000 people for a wedding, so a well funded protest anywhere can easily manage 25k to 30k people and sustain it for months (see my post above of a recent Congress rally in Bangalore).

well said. Plus just as in elections there is a mahagathbandhan happening for these protests so these protests have funding and support of all opposing forces (parties, medias, bollywood, naxals..). This unity against one government is unprecedented. We have seen this in Shaheen bagh which was an experiment. Expect more of these protests in future. This is new normal for Modi government. It would take some time to understand and make an SOP to deal with such protests.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 25 Jan 2021 01:14

Was it the same chief judicial magistrate who rejected the CBI findings?

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 25 Jan 2021 02:25

More details on the rally

https://indianexpress.com/article/citie ... y-7160250/

Through this parade we have to tell the country and the world about our plight… Our victory lies in the parade being taken out in a very peaceful manner… Our aim is not to conquer Delhi, but to win over the hearts of the people of this county,”

What is it with this Delhi conquering business?

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 25 Jan 2021 02:38

They are obsessed about the throne in Dilli. They believe they are the rightful claimants. Well let the Hindus know, once Muslims, Sikhs and British decide amongst themselves.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 25 Jan 2021 03:03

sanjaykumar wrote:They are obsessed about the throne in Dilli. They believe they are the rightful claimants. Well let the Hindus know, once Muslims, Sikhs and British decide amongst themselves.

what about the marathas, weren't they up there as much or maybe even more than the rest, after all they had subdued almost the whole country before the britshits landed up to "trade"

or are they going to be satisfied with just the agriculture ministry

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 25 Jan 2021 04:42

The Marathas were there to liberate not conquer.

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 25 Jan 2021 05:22

Tanaji wrote:The days of strong arming to break up protests are long gone. No government should have an appetite for large scale violence against protestors that have been peaceful.

Barring certain mistakes, GoI has not had much choice in this matter

Bloodthirsty murderous manmohan-sonia-chidambaram did it:

Rajbala, injured in Ramlila Maidan lathicharge, dies

Updated : September 27, 2011 4:02 pm IST
New Delhi: A 51-year-old woman who was injured in the crackdown on yoga guru Baba Ramdev's fast at Ramlila ground three and a half months ago died in hospital on Monday.

Rajbala, who was in the intensive care unit (ICU) of the hospital since June, succumbed to her injuries in the morning.

Her last rites are being held in Sonepat today. BJP leader Sushma Swaraj and Baba Ramdev will be there to attend her last rites.

The woman, who was a resident of Delhi's neighbouring Gurgaon, had suffered spinal injuries in the June 4 midnight crackdown and was critical ever since. She was also paralysed due to the injuries.
_____________________

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/ramlila ... dev-569425

Ramlila crackdown: Supreme Court slams Govt, Delhi Police; also pulls up Ramdev

New Delhi: The Supreme Court has sternly pulled up the government and Delhi Police for the midnight crackdown in June last year at yoga teacher Baba Ramdev's Ramlila ground rally, saying the incident could have been avoided by more patient handling by the state. The court has also found Baba Ramdev guilty of negligence.

Baba Ramdev's rally on June 4 and 5 last year, was held to protest against what he called the government's inaction on the black money issue. Thousands of the yoga guru's followers were at the grounds when the Delhi Police swooped down to evict the Baba. Some of Baba Ramdev's followers retaliated. A woman, Rajbala, was among 30 people badly injured and she died later in hospital.

The Supreme Court had taken suo motu note of media reports purportedly showing the brutality of police action against Baba Ramdev's followers, including women and children, many of whom were reportedly sleeping at the time of the crackdown. The Supreme Court said today that a sleeping congregation can't be called an unlawful assembly. It has sought action against both policemen and Baba Ramdev's followers who indulged in violence.

Here are the top 10 developments today:

1) The Supreme Court has held that the police acted in undue haste and that police restrictions at the Ramlila grounds on the day of the incident were unreasonable and unwarranted. The state, it has observed, could have avoided the clash by exercising patience. It has reprimanded the police for failing to establish an emergency situation.

darshan · Post by **darshan** » 25 Jan 2021 07:08

nehru clan.

Rahul Gandhi says if farmers and labourers are strong, India does not need to deploy armed forces at Indo-China border
https://www.opindia.com/2021/01/rahul-g ... re-strong/
....
Addressing a rally at Erode, Tamil Nadu, the Gandhi-scion pushed for demilitarisation of Indian borders, especially along the Indo-China border saying that the government was using Indian Army, Navy and Air Force to protect India from China, however, it should use India’s farmers and labourers at the borders instead of Armed Forces at the border.

‘You are using the Indian Army and Navy to protect India from China. If you use India’s farmers, labourers and workers, you will not need the Army, Navy and Airforce at the borders,’ said Rahul Gandhi while interacting with the weavers’ community in Erode. The Kerala MP also said that he can guarantee that if India’s labourers, farmers and weavers were strong, they were protected and given opportunities, China would never dare to come inside India.

The Congress party, which has signed an MoU with the Chinese Communist Party, seems to be playing a dangerous game of politicising national security by calling to demilitarise the Indo-China border and instead deploy Indian farmers and labourers to protect the borders.
....

darshan · Post by **darshan** » 25 Jan 2021 07:12

Photograph of PM Modi landing in Kolkata goes viral, clocks over 1 million likes on Facebook in less than 24 hours
https://www.opindia.com/2021/01/photogr ... -24-hours/

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 25 Jan 2021 08:19

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 25 Jan 2021 08:59

Ambar wrote:...Use force and it guarantees deaths and bloodshed, and which in turn will set off million other fires across the country. And do nothing and you end up inconveniencing and destroying daily lives of citizens in one city. See, these "protests" will never be tolerated or allowed in other states, block Bangalore or Mumbai and the citizens will take the "protestors" to task even if the local governments do not, so the govt makes a strategic decision to just let the nonsense go on in Delhi with the hopes that people will lose interest and the sold-old fake media will move on to the next outrage. The last days of shaheenbagh had <200 dadis sitting in the tents, the farmers protest too will meet the same fate sooner or later...

Lets hope that the tractor rally becomes the consolation prize and it marks the the beginning of the end of this nonsensical protest. As long as the laws stay (not just the farm laws, but CAA/NRC etc. and all future laws), tractor rally or any other rally will not yield anything to the protesters other than some fancy pictures, emotional tweets, catchy headlines and attention for few days. Laws will stay and life will move on, Govt - 1, BIF - 0.

I was more interested in what would farmers do after the rally is over. I hope they come back after several hours of rally (and full bladder) to find that the temporary protest city they have established is completely demolished by the cops.

V_Raman · Post by **V_Raman** » 25 Jan 2021 09:01

What RG does not understand is RSS is not a big issue in TN and they dont understand such references.

asgkhan · Post by **asgkhan** » 25 Jan 2021 09:34

Looks like Pappu has not learnt from Rafale mud slinging debacle. He is vomitting gibberish bile on Mudi kaaka selling assets to business-men. There seems to be hardly any traction even on SM.

Is this the only mudda (issue, not ragi mudda/ball) Pappu's ladyboy team would come up with ?

2024 looks bleak for this numbnut, going by the trend. No wonder BJP is already in retirement mode cruising along with such negative IQ opposition.

We seriously need nationalistic, strong opposition, a more virulent true hindutva party to start lighting the fire under vishwaguru's musharaff. Else, BJP will be happy doing mediocre progress and us abduls will have to be happy with such small handouts.

V_Raman · Post by **V_Raman** » 25 Jan 2021 09:43

Someone should start a new Hindu Democratic Party. But the issue is votes will get divided and cong will be back in power. We need more votes to convert to BJP before such a thing. But that may not happen and the 20% minority vote bank is unique in the world - too big to have a true hindutva based opposition party

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 25 Jan 2021 10:29

What's with Indian right wing and the ready embrace of defeat.

Its a game and requires utmost patience and attention. Not this sky has fallen attitude.

Thank god we don't have any one like you in positions of power. Or by now red fort would be flying Pakistani flag and not tiranga.

asgkhan · Post by **asgkhan** » 25 Jan 2021 12:34

Asking accountability and criticizing lethargy is not out of bounds btw.

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 25 Jan 2021 13:00

Pappu having free lunch in TN. Don't ask me from where.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 25 Jan 2021 13:18

asgkhan wrote:Looks like Pappu has not learnt from Rafale mud slinging debacle. He is vomitting gibberish bile on Mudi kaaka selling assets to business-men. There seems to be hardly any traction even on SM.

Is this the only mudda (issue, not ragi mudda/ball) Pappu's ladyboy team would come up with ?

2024 looks bleak for this numbnut, going by the trend. No wonder BJP is already in retirement mode cruising along with such negative IQ opposition.

We seriously need nationalistic, strong opposition, a more virulent true hindutva party to start lighting the fire under vishwaguru's musharaff. Else, BJP will be happy doing mediocre progress and us abduls will have to be happy with such small handouts.

pappu has handlers from the BIF who have advised him to ceaselessly target Modi and the RSS. No other congi does this and pappu is very cut up with them calling them cowards and being scared of Modi.

hence the rafale and the industrialist friends jibes that he constantly puts out.

OTOH, it has seemingly worked in punjab where the "farmers" have targeted jio cell towers because one particular cell phone company owned by punjabi politicos has paid them off to damage its rival jio.

pappu and punjabi cell phone company have forgotten that motabhai is not the forgiving kind and is an extremely dangerous enemy to have

Yes, the opposition is scared of the reach and power of the both Modi and the RSS because no other idiot politico has the option of running away to kerala and getting elected by a bunch of jehadis

so the kerala rolers are taken aback that pappu has gone over to the ropers.

Is this why they are trying to cosy up to Modi.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 25 Jan 2021 13:19

vimal wrote:Pappu having free lunch in TN. Don't ask me from where.

all the people at the table are from some prominent corporators family and the whole thing has been stage managed as a photo op

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 25 Jan 2021 13:20

AS had said that the BJP will never again align with naidu.

so uncle naidu has to surmount that big hurdle before his opportunistic gharwapasi

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 25 Jan 2021 15:09

asgkhan wrote:Asking accountability and criticizing lethargy is not out of bounds btw.

Accountability yes. Declaration of defeat when the game has just begun. No.

As far as lethargy is concerned I am not so sure about that.

My reasoning is as follows;

Strength invites challenge. The crude respond to this with a use of force.

If all attempts to find peace are rebuffed and the government has not relented. Then continued protesting against the bills is immaterial to the rest of the nation.

If you think it as an affront to the H&D it cannot be helped.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 25 Jan 2021 16:14

vimal wrote:Pappu having free lunch in TN. Don't ask me from where.

Pappu is the only one able to eat with a mask on !!

Haresh · Post by **Haresh** » 25 Jan 2021 16:21

Pathetic, after 33 comments and announcement that comments are closing.

The Guardian view on India's farming revolt: a bitter harvest

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... er-harvest

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 25 Jan 2021 18:54

Right on cue

the next step, as correctly anticipated by many here, on the forum

Protesting Farmers to march towards Parliament on 1st Feb

Farmers to march on foot to parliament on 1 Feb, say protesting unions

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 25 Jan 2021 19:23

Mahender Singh Manral@mahendermanral·1h

#JUSTIN: No objection certificate from the @DelhiPolice to farm leaders for #TractorMarchDelhi. Only 5000 tractors and 5000 participants have been allowed, rally is allowed to start from 12 pm and can go on till 5 pm on January 26. @IndianExpress, @ieDelhi

sudarshan · Post by **sudarshan** » 25 Jan 2021 20:03

Cyrano wrote: Pappu is the only one able to eat with a mask on !!

The photographer is a dumb-bell though. Such a pretty picture, ruined by having an eyesore prominently in the center. Why is he lunching with the girls? Taking after great-granddad by any chance? Mama Tharoor must be burning up.

"Fate of TN can only be decided by Tamils" -

* MGR - Sri Lankan
* JJ - Kannadiga
* Mu Kar - Telugu origin?
* SG - Italian
* Shree Pope - Italian (or Argentinian?)

And BTW, why was the fate of the whole of India being decided by an Italian?

"We will not allow Modi to destroy India's foundations" -

But of course, your desire is to do that lovingly and thoroughly by yourselves.

"Disband army/ navy/ AF and have farmers on the borders" -

Yes great-granddad would approve. Maybe this is what happened in 1962.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 25 Jan 2021 20:34

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 25 Jan 2021 20:37

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 25 Jan 2021 20:40

just as relevant today

the evergreen RK Laxman

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 25 Jan 2021 21:23

The problem with waiting out agitations is you are constantly subject to new drama everyday and do not have the initiative. Waiting for farmers broker to get tired and go away is not an option given the proximity to Delhi and the extreme influence of Khalistanis and other parties in the negotiations. The fact that farmers have not given an inch from their demand and have in fact asked for more in terms of legal guarantees for MSP is a sign that they are not going away. After Parliament gherao, the farmers will stay put on Parliament ground and will be fed by Kejri and his ilk. After that it will be full nakbandi of all roads into Delhi. For those suggesting Supreme Court will corner or influence them, that is a no go. If the SC ruling is against the farmers (and there is no guarantee as SC has shown a tendency to overstep Parliament privilege) they will simply refuse to obey it.

Shaheenbagh did not go away because it was ignored it went away because of Covid-19 and there was potential for a lot of nuisance had that stayed.

I hope the GoI does not give in, but am not convinced it won’t.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 25 Jan 2021 21:40

Cyrano wrote:
vimal wrote:Pappu having free lunch in TN. Don't ask me from where.

Pappu is the only one able to eat with a mask on !!

and no food on hands too

nandakumar · Post by **nandakumar** » 25 Jan 2021 21:42

Cyrano wrote:
vimal wrote:Pappu having free lunch in TN. Don't ask me from where.

Pappu is the only one able to eat with a mask on !!

The mask was a baked roti!

asgkhan · Post by **asgkhan** » 25 Jan 2021 22:09

Pi$$ poor perception management by the top honchos. Admit it, they failed in Shaheen bagh control, and they are failing in the broker protests.

IB/ED/IT/NIA are the tools available for ruthlessly dealing with the opponents. Not a dent has been made on the financing. Tomorrow they will start blocking parliament and prevent laws from being made and passed.

303 seats were not given to the party to go back on promises made because traitors get kid glove treatment.

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 25 Jan 2021 23:17

Khan sir, we have fault lines and deep ones at that. Every govt in power be it congress or BJP has to make sure these faultlines don't widen beyond a certain threshold which may result in a civil war. The Break-India forces routinely exploits these faultlines in one form or another, and they will continue to use them irrespective of how the government deals with the current farm bill protestors. Strap up and hold tight because this decade will be a repeat of 1970s globally , there will be wars, there will be riots, there will be political turmoils, there will be high inflation from US to Brazil to India. The first step is to accept that the anti-CAA/anti-farm bill/hathras will be a template for daily protests across the country, with this acceptance lets explore what options the government has to contain violence but yet grow the economy and improve the lives of its citizens. In my opinion with 3 yrs left in the current term, the government should concentrate on improving administration, cut bureaucracy by making many people-to-government interactions electronic and be "smart" in governance. When i say "smart governance" i mean try and achieve within existing laws instead of passing new ones and battling the next 2 yrs just explaining to people why the new laws were necessary because the government's voice is drowned down by fake-news partisan media and a highly biased social media.

SRajesh · Post by **SRajesh** » 25 Jan 2021 23:21

vimal wrote:Pappu having free lunch in TN. Don't ask me from where.

Hmm must be tasting real good with the mask on!!

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 25 Jan 2021 23:25

asgkhan wrote:Asking accountability and criticizing lethargy is not out of bounds btw.

Why are you asking on BRF ? Is Amit Shah holding office hours here ?

Avtar Singh · Post by **Avtar Singh** » 26 Jan 2021 03:47

shaheen bagh tactics in moscow for navalny, children as protester shields;

from 16.00

https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/5134 ... den-trump/

ultimately if Hindus want to save their country and civilization they will have to fight on multiple fronts

these people causing fires in your house can only be fought by India talking war to their houses;
2 fronts, pak and cheen
India does not have the globalist subversion tools, that fake liberals use with their allies cheen and pak…

Only choice left where India holds a strong enough hand is proper war
give peace a chance destroy….

So that is 2 fronts as everyone knows….

The other front will be internal against globalists/fake liberals/islamist/communists……
ironically the only way that Indian can deal with this front is by winning on the first 2 fronts…

Fortunately for India “what will the gora say” p##hing pants mentality will be less relevant for Indian this time because their countries will burn with the same problems……..
Same globalist tactics the world over

It is a pity this administration was a asleep for the first 5 years much 6 Ps time has been lost.

6 Ps…...Prior Preparation Prevents P#ss Poor Performance….

venkat_kv · Post by **venkat_kv** » 26 Jan 2021 04:12

asgkhan wrote:Ambar-saar, why do we have ED/IT ministries? Let the sarkaari spokesmen speak soothingly to media and the troublemakers. In the meantime, unleash these departments and attach their properties. Khaalistani idiots have confirmed their support, use NSA and jail the brokers and their families in the comforting jails of Andaman Nicobar. Let the cases have bail hearings post 6 months.

Dontcha think the above could have been done early? No funds no movements. 56 inch mor baapu self promoted from Supreme Leader to weak bladdered Vishwa Guru status too early.

Shaheen Bagh was a disaster, this farmer protests is a bigger disaster. Cowardice is not some Chanakian/4D chess move. Retreat and cowardice is also a strategy I agree, but not expected of a party who have 303 seats.

Khan saab,
Even ED and IT ministries will have to prove or drag people from where they have got donations. if going by the reports, the religious places point out that every household from Punjab gave 4000 (whether voluntarily or by force) you can't expect the govt to file a case on every one for H&D purposes or to show 56 inch.
I would say stop paying too much attention to media crooks. the guy can constantly bring out issues (real or perceived), but has no solutions. The current Prime Minister is the Prime Minister for the whole country, not for one region, caste language etc etc. You can see in his development push for North East or trying to bring in reforms that aim to affect the targeted sections in a positive manner in the whole country.

Simply shouting Shaeenbagh is a disaster and this being cowardice or a bigger disaster will not help. Do you have a pointed way to have the protestors removed without bloodshed. I don't think anyone has given a foolproof plan of how they intend to do it, either on this forum or else where in the media. the govt is talking, that is the least it can do.

venkat_kv · Post by **venkat_kv** » 26 Jan 2021 04:32

Tanaji wrote:The problem with waiting out agitations is you are constantly subject to new drama everyday and do not have the initiative. Waiting for farmers broker to get tired and go away is not an option given the proximity to Delhi and the extreme influence of Khalistanis and other parties in the negotiations. The fact that farmers have not given an inch from their demand and have in fact asked for more in terms of legal guarantees for MSP is a sign that they are not going away. After Parliament gherao, the farmers will stay put on Parliament ground and will be fed by Kejri and his ilk. After that it will be full nakbandi of all roads into Delhi. For those suggesting Supreme Court will corner or influence them, that is a no go. If the SC ruling is against the farmers (and there is no guarantee as SC has shown a tendency to overstep Parliament privilege) they will simply refuse to obey it.

Shaheenbagh did not go away because it was ignored it went away because of Covid-19 and there was potential for a lot of nuisance had that stayed.

I hope the GoI does not give in, but am not convinced it won’t.

Tanaji, i think you are looking at this the wrong way. we shouldn't be looking at it from a ball-by ball commentary of whats happening as in cricket. so far the farmer unions mostly from Punjab and Haryana have made unreasonable demands and the govt hasn't budged on the original farm laws.
So what if the govt accepts tractor rallies, stubble burning or anything else that are unrelated to the actual three sections passed under the farm laws. the farmer unions can ask to do a disco or bangra on Delhi streets also and govt can accept that as well, no difference with actual laws itself is it?
This will go on till the sc appointed committee will give their recommendations one way or another. i am more worried about Lodha commission exceeding its brief than these so called daily farmer union shenanigans.

venkat_kv · Post by **venkat_kv** » 26 Jan 2021 04:44

kosminari wrote:
venkat_kv wrote:
Saar, i don't understand this itch to self-flagellate on a forum when ever something doesn't go as per our wishes. the farm laws suspend for a year
.... snip
I see even in this forum there are a few that come and crap over every perceived issue (happend during dokala, galwan migrant issue) coming up with some ridiculous theories of quid pro quo. People should think a little before posting something, now the new refrain is Modi is gunning for Nobel. Even the BJP and NDA supporters seem to be falling for this hook line and sinker without any thought process. why and how will he get a nobel from a committe for not taking law and order action or letting cities under the grip of fundamentalists. I mean kuch bhi.
Joining armed forces, participating green revolution, or flaunting fancy names like Anndata does not give absolute freedom to anarchy. This mockery of law and order did not start at Singhu, they were shutting down Reliance gas stations and fresh stores since October. Even Indian railway had to stop many good and passenger trains due to continuous blocking of the tracks. To mobilize against farm laws, following narratives were build and successfully used.

1. Punjab is a fighter state and sikhs are a martial race.
2. We won Dilli 16 times and gave it back. (Actually its between 16 - 19)
3. We will win Dilli again and no body can stop us.
4. Only we fought with Muguls and Britishers in India
5. We saved them from Mugals and they backstabbed us.
6. Was it not for Sikhs, India would be a Muslim state.
7. Hence BJP and Indian government is inherently coward.
8. Modi is a dictator and we will teach him a lesson.

Jatt dominated Punjabi music industry immediately jumped in and produced many songs enforcing same narrative. Clear lines are drawn and anyone even remotely supporting these laws is threatened. Last month they gheraoed Gurdas Mann because he did not join protests in October. Hansraj Hans's house in Jalandhar was surrounded. Bhupinder Singh Mann was threatened and he recused from Supreme Court appointed committee. Why do you think former Cricketer Harbhajan Singh would post a fake news of false vaccination in India.

See the audacity, they demanded repeal without discussion and rejected every offer by government. They didn't even respect, trust or fear Supreme Court. They are not in Delhi to consult on farm bills, They are here to give Modi ji a sounding defeat. If Modi Ji let unions win, it will be perceived "we" defeated "them" and fan separatism even more.

If they decide to create a ruckus on Republic day, I am not sure how Delhi police is tactically equipped to stop few thousand tractors. As unions indicated its going to end up in a bloody mess, its quite logical that State starts violence pre-emptively and contains it.

Congress killed thousands in 1984 and tens of thousands during Beant Singh rule, yet Shree Amarinder Singh won twice with thumping majority. Why should Modi ji care bad optics of lathi charge. This protest does not have traction with farmers in other states, and no farmer gives a rats backside if his crop gets him more money under new laws.

As far as Noble prize for Modi ji is concerned, it was a pun I know he will never get it.

Kosiminari ji,
all the above points are also done in the southern states of Tamil Nadu, Kerala, AP and to a lesser extant in Telangana. Other then physically ghearoing or assaulting the other side people in these states also subscribe to supremacy theories in one form or other - may not be about saving Hindus or ruling Delhi, but Dravidian movement, ideal values, deccan rulers or independant thought process and what not.

Captain saab has won in Punjab because the Akalis partially screwed up administration and Amrinder ji is one of their own (a Punjabi, Sikh)so its will be perceived as an internal matter. but such things will not be afforded to Modiji. There was a video by Ajeet Bharti of opindia in hindi regarding the same as to why is Modi govt not taking serious steps and only talking and he points out that one of the narratives that has gone is the govt doesn't care about Punjab and Sikhs and police lathi charge and evicting farmer protestors forcefully will play into the same.
The govt is trying to avoid that as that will open up a new front (of punjabi, Sikh, khalistani nationalism) and sideline the current farm law issues.

the govt needs to keep working and take feedback and continue to finetune the laws as it sees fit.