Baluchistan: The Story of Another Pakistan Military Genocide

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nirav
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Re: Baluchistan: The Story of Another Pakistan Military Genocide

Post by nirav »

As much as I hate to say this, territorial integrity of bakistan is in our long term national interest.

Any break up would lead to the soosai jihadi gernails to press the button..
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Re: Baluchistan: The Story of Another Pakistan Military Genocide

Post by vinod »

nirav wrote:As much as I hate to say this, territorial integrity of bakistan is in our long term national interest.

Any break up would lead to the soosai jihadi gernails to press the button..
Press the button and then what......?

Generals are not stupid. They are in that position because they are intelligent how much ever jihadi they are...

They can lose the war, lose Pakistan's territory and still keep what they have gained intact. Like 1971, sign a document and carry on as usual, if they play it right.

Press a nuclear button and lose EVERYTHING for sure.
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Re: Baluchistan: The Story of Another Pakistan Military Genocide

Post by nirav »

I really doubt plans for a chota bakistan are afoot.
If the intent is to create trouble for bakis and their pet CPAC, then by all means.
We can provide 10x the moral and diplomatic support to balochs for their struggles than what the bakis give to Kashmir.

Breaking up bakistan doesn't make sense as the risks are disproportionately high..

Even if we some how engineer baloch independence w/o going nuclear how does it help us strategically and upto what extent that we should risk a nuclear exchange ?
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Re: Baluchistan: The Story of Another Pakistan Military Genocide

Post by svinayak »

nirav wrote:I really doubt plans for a chota bakistan are afoot.
If the intent is to create trouble for bakis and their pet CPAC, then by all means.
We can provide 10x the moral and diplomatic support to balochs for their struggles than what the bakis give to Kashmir.

Breaking up bakistan doesn't make sense as the risks are disproportionately high..

Even if we some how engineer baloch independence w/o going nuclear how does it help us strategically and upto what extent that we should risk a nuclear exchange ?
India would only give moral support. India will only help the victims and raise the voice in the international forum

India will hold Baluch Freedom conference

India does not have a border with Baluchistan.
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Re: Baluchistan: The Story of Another Pakistan Military Genocide

Post by williams »

India would only give moral support. India will only help the victims and raise the voice in the international forum

India will hold Baluch Freedom conference

India does not have a border with Baluchistan.
India needs cooperation from Afghanistan and Iran to provide any physical help to the Baluchis. In short term, this may not be possible, but in the long term, we can develop the capability. First we need to help the Afghans to build a robust national army. Next our economic relationship with Iran should improve to the point they can take more risk to strategically defeat Pakistan. Then it is just a question of time when the arms and help can flow into Baluchistan. MAD team is the best one to do this. But for that this team need to remain for the next two terms. India needs to start playing big boys game. We started that in the 70s when we had nothing, we could do much better today.
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Re: Baluchistan: The Story of Another Pakistan Military Genocide

Post by ranjan.rao »

ramana wrote:
ranjan.rao wrote:Ramana sir you are thinking quite ahead..I am still stuck on questions e.g.
1. How will India be able to provide the armed resistance some form of support, in what shape that will be money, training or arms or a combination of some or all:
How will Chabahar help India in this
Will Iran/Afghanistan and US have some role in it
2. How will porki nukes be secured/neutralized: assuming they dont offload all on us.
3. How will china react to such cartographic changes esp in light of her ~40 Bn USD investments(read soft loans)
4. What will happen to chinese investments during the course of action and afterwards; chinese are not gonna sit quietly in a corner and watch the whole movie eating popcorn
5. Will Iran be asking for some pie of Balochistan?
1. India can above all have them present a united front. Right now they are like fingers and can be broken individually. So make them into a fist. A combination of all three and medical facility in Iran and Afghanistan.
- Chahbahar is far in future.
- Don't know about others. But tacit understanding as their own security is being jeopardized by Pakistan.
2. Porki nukes are a concern. But cant let fear scare us. More time increases the threat as Deejay writes.
3 & 4. China has to negotiate with new rulers if they want. In beginning they might think they can interfere. But as uprisinng increases they need to make a decision.
5. Iran has a concern with own Balochis. Greece had a concern with Macedonia. But has been addressed. Besides if Iran is not in agreement with this, its own security will get jeopardized as Pak plays Baloch card on them.
Thanks Ramana Sir. I also thought a little on this too. Here is my speculation on this
1. I dont think govt is looking to do anything immediately, may be they are just testing waters to see how deep this rabbit hole goes. Their main priority is to win 2019 and other state elections esp UP and secondly deflect the heat from tolerance brigade bitches and buy sometime to give the development agenda fructify. My sense is India would escalate the matters gradually (I am guessing a period of 6-7 years or even more).
a. In first stage(which may have started sometime back) India would try to identify key partners and stakeholders in its objective. This would
include identifying Baloch leaders from political, diplomatic and armed arena and give them footage to catch world's attention. We would use
global forums to highlight this, nationalist media can also play a big role. This gestation period also works well to shore up our defense
preparations/acquisitions(which have been non existent for last decade), put the economy in high gear as a result of long term development
plans and adequate defense on eastern sector. This also more or less aligns with the readiness of Chabahar port and clarity of situation in
Afghanistan post US withdrawal. We will identify and activate assets in other regions e.g. Sindh and PoK too. Duration: Possibly 3-4 years
b. If all goes well, the second phase would involve much more active support, by this time we may possibly have buy in from other regional eg
Iran, Afghanistan (if Taliban hasnt taken over) and global players(US, to needle China and payback for Porkies for what they did to them in
Afghanistan and possibly some form of guarantee or active support from them to avoid the nooklear fall out). We may have much more robust
airdefence through S-400/500 and our own internal airdefence systems as well. Multiple insurgency regions will be combined and their actions
will be coordinated to cause maximum diversion of pakistani forces. By end of this time they will be weakened economically as well.
c. Stage three would be endgame where India will directly move in through heavy deployment on western border and possibly through it's bases in
Afghanistan. Obviously Balochis will also be actively lighting up the backside of Pakistani Army. I dont think Pakistanis will be in a position to
handle threats on multiple fronts. Their air defence on their West is I guess close to non existent. Duration 1-2 years
2. Regarding Paki Nukes: This is where the China factor becomes huge. They will parent the Pakistani nooklear program to minimize their losses
46 Bn CEPC and bring their hegemony in the region. Now I dont think USA would like to get involved but will eventually get involved as it would
not want nuclear missiles crossing. I think their role will be providing us intel about 1. pakistani nooklear movement/locations or may be
disrupting them from delivering nooklear weapons 2. holding chinese interventions through gunboat diplomacy. Without their support we could do
'71 with their support I think we will be able to do a lot more. This phase will be not more than one year as protracted involvement will cost us
heavily as well.
3. & 4 I think India would provide some form of guarantee to take care of their investments provided during and after the war provided they stay
out of it. I dont think china will agree to it but to avoid the loss of face and inevitable collapse it may agree with significant concessions. Possibly
keeping China Occupied Kashmir without any guarantee of giving up future claims on Arunachal or anything about Brahmputra.
5. Map of Pakistan will be significantly redrawn as multiple states e.g Iran, Afghanistan and India would want some buffer zones.
We would get PoK and may be Gilgit Baltistan. COK I addressed earlier.

Obviously all this is a big speculation/imagination, stretches too far in time and is based upon all positive outcomes for assumptions e.g. How India's relationship with USA and Iran evolves. How does the situation in Afghanistan evolves. Pakistan is not able to create 500 to 1000 Nuclear weapons during that duration as that would change our calculus of even our nuclear exchange significantly. China continues to be the usual fence sitter and realizes that loss of Pakistan is something it can live with in lieu of it's economic better. US also possibly sees that getting Pakistan off from China's circle is best and it's better to have heat in Arabian ocean than SCS and defer things heating up in Pacific and most importantly we have this government in 2019 and with Ajit Doval still at his best (remember he's 71 and I wish he lives beyond 100 like he's 20).

How India handles this will determine if we sit on high table or we keep looking at it as someone waiting for others to leave and grab a seat.

Please correct the BRFite if I've simplified things too much or if there is some flaw.
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Re: Baluchistan: The Story of Another Pakistan Military Genocide

Post by svinayak »

williams wrote:

India needs cooperation from Afghanistan and Iran to provide any physical help to the Baluchis. In short term, this may not be possible, but in the long term, we can develop the capability. First we need to help the Afghans to build a robust national army. Next our economic relationship with Iran should improve to the point they can take more risk to strategically defeat Pakistan. Then it is just a question of time when the arms and help can flow into Baluchistan. MAD team is the best one to do this. But for that this team need to remain for the next two terms. India needs to start playing big boys game. We started that in the 70s when we had nothing, we could do much better today.
Baluch People are kuam by themselves

Baluch People have to decide their relations with Sindhi people

Baluch People have to decide their relations with Afghan people

Baluch People have to decide their relations with Pasthun people

Baluch People have to decide their relations with Irani people

Baluch People have to decide their relations with Pakjabis people

Baluch People have to decide their relations with State of Pakistan

Only Baluch people can struggle and decide to set themselves Free.
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Re: Baluchistan: The Story of Another Pakistan Military Genocide

Post by krishna_krishna »

RRao Sir, what makes you think/believe that Massa will side with us and not porkis ?

After Afghan end game, they will not have any incentive to slide with ur. They will have their base in A'sthan till eternity so that if sh@t is about to hit the fanes with "knew cler" bums that may target them or close allies they can keep check on porkis (Read insurance policy)

Apart from them if Porkis behave nicely they will not have any issues in helping them because CPEC is in their intresets (Read Rdev's analysis on CPEC) how it is actually massa sponsored scheme and pacific is just diversion for us. JMT

Now what will throw monkey wrench in this calculation is like what we had done with N alliance, when afghans are themselves able to take care of Talibunnies and emerge as a state and starting kicking porkis in their mush.
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Re: Baluchistan: The Story of Another Pakistan Military Genocide

Post by ranjan.rao »

KK Sir,

Two reasons I think Khan will side with us, they would want us to be their munna and do their dirty work vis a vis China, secondly they would want some payback for all duplicity pakistanis did to them over years milking them. For all their talk about democracy and human rights all they care is about their interests.

Apologies, I couldnt find the Rdev's analysis through either Rdev handle or CPEC search. Can you please help me.

Lastly, no Sir, havent earned my badge here..
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Re: Baluchistan: The Story of Another Pakistan Military Genocide

Post by Gagan »

The balochistan movement will have to gather a certain momentum, before the next step can be taken.

What has been done now is full on moral and diplomatic support from the PM himself from the ramparts of the red fort on Independence day no less!
This absence of a direct border with India is not that important. There are several factors that must be considered.
1. Pakistani military is VERY thinly deployed in sindh and very minimally deployed in balochistan. Most of their troop concentration is in POK and Pakjab, where I estimate like 70% of troop deployment in these two theaters alone.
2. The arabian ocean provides direct access to Balochistan. Pakistan has a very small ill equipped navy, with very average ability to monitor their coastline.
3. Notice how the Sindhudesh movement has also heated up with Altaf Hussain of MQM and other Sindhi independence movements upping the ante.
4. Literally every province other than Pakjab is bordering on revolt, or at the least have very strong anti pakjab feelings. These have built up over the past 70 odd years and there is real pent up anger and mistrust.

Note PM Modi mentions two places one in the extreme northeast (GB/POK)and the other in the extreme southwest(Balochistan)
Pakistan will have their hands full, if there is rebellion in all these different areas.

WRT Pakistan's N capabilities, I have a certain viewpoint, for which I have my very strong reasons. All that I hear and see has only reinforced this. I consider them to be Nook Noode, being capable of deploying dirty weapons, that will only give a few kilotons worth of yield at the most. What I fear is that they'll become a true N weapons state if they build Poo weapons.
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Re: Baluchistan: The Story of Another Pakistan Military Genocide

Post by ramana »

ranjan.rao, You are detailing milestone plan (How & When) while everyone still digesting the depth of the What mode laid out by NaMo.

One thing is them having given nukes to Pakis means they have washed their hands off them.
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Re: Baluchistan: The Story of Another Pakistan Military Genocide

Post by Bheeshma »

If US remains in afghanistan then they would want a free baluchistan for logistics purpose. MUNNA is not to be trusted ever.
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Re: Baluchistan: The Story of Another Pakistan Military Genocide

Post by anupmisra »

Need a similar thread on Azaad Sindh.
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Re: Baluchistan: The Story of Another Pakistan Military Genocide

Post by ramana »

Posted this in Twitter group:
The way to look is from 1947 to 2014 is one era or stage of history. It was based on gradual expansion of Army but strategy of rearward defence prevalent from fall of Guptas. This means battles will be fought in desh. Consequence is one defeat will let the invader free pass to the capital. NaMo is taking it to forward defence or offensive defence. Here you take the war to enemy side. Need to reorient Army from defence mindset since Lord Kitchner reorganization.
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Re: Baluchistan: The Story of Another Pakistan Military Genocide

Post by ranjan.rao »

^^you are right Ramana sir, I know i have stretched too far, but considering the investment this govt made in improving relations with Pakistan and the results that it got, it is not unimaginable to think that govt is thinking on these lines. Secondly, as I said in phase I govt will see how deep the rabbit hole goes.
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Re: Baluchistan: The Story of Another Pakistan Military Genocide

Post by krishna_krishna »

RRao, I respectfully disagree massa is part of gang of 3.5 forefathers of pakis even though munna misbehaves recently and trying to show who is bigger dog akin to 5 ft something drunk mexicon trying to challenge 7 ft something big daddy in the bar. Massa has dealt with them in the past and know how to deal with them comfortably may be a case of mango will do when time comes. They have them in their pockets.

Love lost is due to having usama in their backyard and they trying to shove money from massa while protecting him. It would be business as usual trust me.

Bheesma : I can tell you with certainty that someone told me during surge in astan that massa will have permanent base there. That does not mean porkis wont supply them may be they have something else in the mind. CPEC suits them too connect the dots with Rdev's theory
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Re: Baluchistan: The Story of Another Pakistan Military Genocide

Post by Prem »

There are many Baluchis living in India ; sense the preparation made by MAD in last 2 years
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoXYliW5f7A
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YtEPO8sxaIY
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Re: Baluchistan: The Story of Another Pakistan Military Genocide

Post by Vayutuvan »

krishna_krishna wrote:CPEC suits them too connect the dots with Rdev's theory
What if CPEC is severed after "Free Baluchistan"? Uncle and Bharath benefit at the cost of Pakisatan. Number of solutions is greater than one here. Stratege(r)ic simulations have multiple equilibriums (which may not have equal payoffs, of course). Any equilibrium solution is preferable to the chaos as it exists in the valli.
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Re: Baluchistan: The Story of Another Pakistan Military Genocide

Post by deejay »

A nice video with Urdu voice over on Baloch history and fight against Pakistan:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YELFZWVQJO4



A video with voice over in English with details on resources:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0RGvPzSF788

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Re: Baluchistan: The Story of Another Pakistan Military Genocide

Post by deejay »

This is an Al Jazeera video of Balochistan. Look at the terrain, the infrastructure and how difficult it will be for non locals to come inside and wage a door to door war here. If Pakistani air element is suppressed then holding ground will be very difficult for the PA.

Oh! and there are other things to watch too. :)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hc7q4_SkSGI



Ramana Sir, a few answers on equipment with the Baloch. RPGs are there.
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Re: Baluchistan: The Story of Another Pakistan Military Genocide

Post by g.sarkar »

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/balo ... 51611.html
Balochistan: Did Pakistan use chemical weapons on locals after PM Modi's I-Day speech?
Baloch activists have alleged that Pakistani Army used chemical weapons on the civilians in Balochistan to express their anger at Prime Minister Narendra Modi's reference to human rights abuse in the restive province.
Rattled by Prime Minister Narendra Modi's mention of Balochistan in his Independence Day speech, Pakistan seems to have resorted to take revenge from its own citizen. Pakistani Army, activists claimed, used chemical weapons on residents of Balochistan after PM Modi raised the issue of human rights violation in the restive province during the all-party meet and again in his Independence Day speech.
Baloch activists told India Today that Pakistani Army used chemical spray to immobilize Baloch people, who were then shot dead. The army not only killed innocent people but also showed medieval age barbarism by gouging out eyes of the dead people, they claimed. Bolan area of Balochistan reportedly bore the brunt of Pakistani Army's anger.....
Gautam
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Re: Baluchistan: The Story of Another Pakistan Military Genocide

Post by deejay »

Interesting piece on Forbes:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang ... 0b32a54f63
...
For decades, New Delhi elites have tried to ignore the attacks. Modi, when he came to power in 2014, tried a different tack, reaching out to Islamabad, even inviting Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to his inauguration. And then in December, Modi, often derided as a “Hindu nationalist,” became the first Indian prime minister to visit Pakistan since 2004.

The outreach did not help. For one thing, the prime minister of Pakistan doesn’t run the country as Paskal notes. The military does.

“If the Pakistani military wanted peace with India, there would be peace with India,” she said to me. “And Pakistan’s military has the strong backing of China, in part because it suits Beijing to destabilize India.”

Modi lost his patience with the Pakistanis—and the Chinese—last week, executing a major turn of policy by uttering a single sentence. “I am grateful to the people of Balochistan, Gilgit, and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir who have thanked me in the past few days,” he said in his Independence Day address, on the 15th, at the Red Fort in Delhi.

India claims Gilgit, which Pakistan controls, as well as the part of Kashmir under administration of Islamabad. In Balochistan, a long-simmering insurgency threatens China’s cherished project, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

The Corridor connects China’s so-called Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region with the Indian Ocean through north-south roads bisecting Pakistan. Those road cross Balochistan. The strategic Gwadar port is in that province, which includes more than 40% of the area of Pakistan.
...
Quote on second page of article.
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Re: Baluchistan: The Story of Another Pakistan Military Genocide

Post by chetak »

1876 treaty between the Khan of Kalat and the British; if the Durand agreement is binding, so is this #Balochistan

Image


Image
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Re: Baluchistan: The Story of Another Pakistan Military Genocide

Post by arun »

X Posted from the “Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)” thread.

Harsh V Pant in Yale Global in an article titled “Modi Throws Down Gauntlet to Pakistan and China” :

Modi Throws Down Gauntlet to Pakistan and China : Modi no longer holds back criticism on Pakistan’s troubles in Balochistan – which also stings China
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Re: Baluchistan: The Story of Another Pakistan Military Genocide

Post by ramana »

Most of these articles have bakwas headlines. Such large shifts in policy are not taken out of pique or anger or petulance.

Maybe they have to write such headlines to get published.
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Re: Baluchistan: The Story of Another Pakistan Military Genocide

Post by deejay »

This is my piece on Balochistan, POK and CPEC.

https://www.myind.net/india-new-approac ... c4.twitter

"Taking the fight back into Pakistan is an important step in controlling Pakistan and taking consequences of aggression back into the enemy territory. It is also critical in stopping the Chinese dragon from truly engulfing India"
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Re: Baluchistan: The Story of Another Pakistan Military Genocide

Post by ramana »

Very good article. Folks please read and RT.
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Re: Baluchistan: The Story of Another Pakistan Military Genocide

Post by deejay »

ramana wrote:Very good article. Folks please read and RT.
Thank You for your and Muppalla ji's guidance and force in getting this published.
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Re: Baluchistan: The Story of Another Pakistan Military Genocide

Post by zoverian »

@ deejay . Superbly written article.
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Re: Baluchistan: The Story of Another Pakistan Military Genocide

Post by Kashi »

Baloch, Sindhi leaders in London protest China-Pak corridor, rights violations
Activists of UK-based Baloch and Sindhi groups held a demonstration against the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and human rights violations outside the Chinese embassy here, demanding that the $46-billion project be called off.

World Sindhi Congress chairman Lakhumal Luhana told Hindustan Times the massive trade and transit project was responsible for “gross human rights violations”.

“It is a matter of life and death for us,” Luhana said, adding there were no plans for rehabilitating thousands of people displaced by the CPEC. The project is being imposed by Islamabad but could not materialise without the people’s consent, he said.

Sunday’s protest at Portland Place – the latest of several in Pakistan and elsewhere in recent weeks – was organised by the World Sindhi Congress, Sindhi Baloch Forum, Baloch National Movement, Baloch Republican Party, Baloch Human Rights Council-UK, Baloch Students and Youth Association and Baloch Students Organisation.

“Prime Minister Narendra Modi for Balochistan” and “Kadam badhao Modiji hum tumhare saath hain” were among the slogans shouted during the protest. The protesters also shouted slogans such as “No to CPEC” and “Hai haq humara aazadi”, ANI reported.

The CPEC, considered a part of China’s One Belt, One Road initiative, covers Balochistan and Sindh provinces and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. India has formally opposed the CPEC because it runs through PoK.

The activists said the project was causing much damage to the environment and would not benefit the people of the region. Holding placards, they alleged Balochistan’s abundant resources were being diverted for the benefit of Punjab, Pakistan’s most populous province.
........
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Re: Baluchistan: The Story of Another Pakistan Military Genocide

Post by Kashi »

All India Radio to start programs in Balochi language
NEW DELHI: All India Radio (AIR) will soon start programs in Balochi language for the people living in Balochistan province of Pakistan and other areas.

According to AIR sources, Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led government has given the approval for the same.

Responding to this latest development, Congress leader Meem Afzal said, “I think it is part of the government’s policy. Let’s see what kind of bulletins they run. I believe there is nothing to objection to it as there are other languages also that are being run in AIR.”
...
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Re: Baluchistan: The Story of Another Pakistan Military Genocide

Post by deejay »

zoverian wrote:@ deejay . Superbly written article.
Thank You.
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Re: Baluchistan: The Story of Another Pakistan Military Genocide

Post by Sanju »

deejay fantastic job. This para summarises that strategy very well:
The change in position on POK is similarly aimed to either completely cut off or stymie the Chinese access to the coastline of Pakistan from the north. India needs to succeed in only one of the two places for CPEC to be effectively dead and the threat nullified.
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Re: Baluchistan: The Story of Another Pakistan Military Genocide

Post by deejay »

Sanju wrote:deejay fantastic job. This para summarises that strategy very well:
The change in position on POK is similarly aimed to either completely cut off or stymie the Chinese access to the coastline of Pakistan from the north. India needs to succeed in only one of the two places for CPEC to be effectively dead and the threat nullified.
Thank You Sir. :)
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Re: Baluchistan: The Story of Another Pakistan Military Genocide

Post by ramana »

In contrast to the two-handed approach of chatteratti, deejay brings clarity to the issues from an Indian national interests point of view. Even the most re-knowned defense correspondents are beholden to interests other than that.
Add to that a military mind.
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Re: Baluchistan: The Story of Another Pakistan Military Genocide

Post by krishna_krishna »

Superb analysis Deejayji, my salute. Reminded me of Lion of Maura vansha who bought our western border under control using same strategy. I already posted on facebook
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Re: Baluchistan: The Story of Another Pakistan Military Genocide

Post by ramana »

K^2, I wanted to say worthy article from one who comes from the land where Chanakya taught strategy and state craft.
But too long to put in tweet.
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Re: Baluchistan: The Story of Another Pakistan Military Genocide

Post by Kashi »

An excellent read deejayji. You are absolutely right, we need to extend the frontlines beyond our current political borders. Too long have we focussed on fighting defensive battles within our own territory.
deejay
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Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Baluchistan: The Story of Another Pakistan Military Genocide

Post by deejay »

Thank You everyone (Krishna ji, Kashi ji and Ramana Sir). This was my first attempt. Hopefully more and better in future.
Gyan
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Posts: 1596
Joined: 26 Aug 2016 19:14

Re: Baluchistan: The Story of Another Pakistan Military Genocide

Post by Gyan »

Indira Gandhi was the only Indian leader serious on Balouchistan. Oldies here would remember the dialogues of Rajiv Gandhi from Red Fort - Nani Yaad dila denge or something like that or that capital of Sikh empire was in Lahore. Vajpayee with his Aar paar ki ladai. The only person who delivered was Narsimha Rao who never uttered a word. With Modi, only time will tell!
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