Indian Foreign Policy

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Viv S
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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby Viv S » 10 Feb 2018 11:46

ramana wrote:Dipanker, Fernand Braudel in his three volume study on civilization and capitalism writes in his third volume that India is like a pendulum that swings westward or east ward. And the period I about 1000 years. The early history shows the Eastward swing around 400 BC where it influenced and established many kingdoms. By around 200 AD it had left the region to leave the space for China. Its possible this was in reaction to the Alexander's foray from West about 300 years before that.

Alexander's campaign western India came about in 326 BC. And was followed//accompanied by what could be called a Western swing in the form of strong cultural & trading ties with the Hellenic kingdoms of Asia and later the Roman Empire, lasting all the way upto around 400 A.D.

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby Vips » 13 Feb 2018 05:41

India and Oman sign agreement o enhance mutual defence cooperation.

The two sides also signed annexure to the MoU on military cooperation. According to Oman News Agency, it envisages the services of Duqm Port and dry-dock for maintenance for Indian military vessels.

Secretary-General of Oman's Ministry of Defence Mohammed bin Nasser al Rasbi said there are many areas of cooperation with the Indian side, whether in the field of joint exercises, training or courses, as well as exchange of experiences between the two sides and some defence purchases.

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby SSridhar » 14 Feb 2018 08:00

Access to Omani port to help India check China at Gwadar - Indrani Bagchi, ToI
An agreement to give Indian Navy access to the Duqm port in Oman will have far-reaching consequences for India’s strategic reach westwards and in the Indian Ocean. Seen together with the agreement with the UAE for joint naval exercises in the Persian Gulf in March, India is making slow but sure progress in pitching its presence in the area.
Last month, India and Seychelles overcame domestic opposition in the island nation to sign a revised agreement for India to build “military infrastructure” in the island of Assumption. A similar agreement for Agalega Island in Mauritius already exists. In 2017, President Ram Nath Kovind made Djibouti his first overseas stop — India and Djibouti are likely to establish diplomatic relations this year with an Indian mission in that very important post on the Horn of Africa.

India was somewhat late in acknowledging the importance of Duqm — the US built its presence there in 2013-14, followed by the UK. Unable to resist the charms of Chinese investment, the Duqm port Commercial Terminal and Operational Zone Development Project saw China investing over $350 million in August 2016 {So, US, UK & China are already present there} .

India has the closest political ties with Oman, also the longest. Its geo-strategic importance for India is unique as it sits atop the crucial waterways of the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean. More than that, Oman has been the original “non-aligned” country in that region — part of the Arab GCC, but maintaining close links with Iran, and now, the black sheep of the Arab alliance, Qatar.

The US used Oman’s good offices to reach out to Iran when they negotiated the nuclear deal, just as it was Oman’s intervention that helped India rescue Father Tom from ISIS captivity in Yemen. As India seeks to engage the Gulf countries more intensively, the Oman experience is invaluable.

In addition, Oman used to be the original Indian Ocean nation with territorial assets going south to Zanzibar, something that has been a basis for closer ties between India and Oman. While PM Modi has engaged the UAE and Saudi Arabia, somehow it seemed that Oman was falling through the cracks.

Foreign minister Sushma Swaraj made Muscat her first overseas call, but it has taken Modi four years to travel to Oman — partly due to Sultan Qaboos’ ill health. All three Indian military services conducted exercises with their Omani counterparts and both the Navy and Air Force use Oman’s Salalah for repair and refueling. But Duqm is different — it is completely artificial and created solely for economic and strategic use.

As China takes over Gwadar in Pakistan, India’s presence in Duqm is crucial as a security checkmate, giving India the ability to cut off China at the mouth of the Gulf of Oman. It is part of historical irony that Gwadar, which used to belong to the Omani sultan, was offered to India in the 1950s.

India had refused, on the grounds that it would not be able to defend it from Pakistan. Duqm in addition, gives Indian Navy a logistics multiplier as it seeks to counter China’s presence in Djibouti, and reach further westwards towards the Red Sea.

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby jaysimha » 15 Feb 2018 17:53

https://swarajyamag.com/defence/why-the-centre-is-right-in-appointing-admiral-d-k-joshi-as-lt-governor-of-andaman-and-nicobar

very old article. but posting since it has relevant info..

Why The Centre Is Right In Appointing Admiral D K Joshi As Lt Governor Of Andaman And Nicobar.


Keertivardhan Joshi is currently working as a Fellow at CSIR-National Aerospace Laboratories, Bangalore.
His work involves design of Landing Gear Systems for India’s upcoming twin engine fighter aircraft AMCA
(Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft).

He tweets @KeertiJoshi

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby ramana » 15 Feb 2018 20:26

P B Mehta writes

India in a corner


India in a corner: Beneath the foreign policy bluster is a great floundering
The vigour of PM Narendra Modi’s travels can barely disguise the fact that in terms of India’s security objectives, he is looking very weak indeed.


India finds itself increasingly cornered into a strategic cul-de-sac. Even as its diplomacy expands, its political options seem to decrease; even as it reaches out to look east and look west, the strategic space to address its core concerns does not seem to be expanding; and even as its bluster about a strong state grows, doubts about its military capabilities are growing equally louder. So, paradoxically, India finds itself in this position that even as it is globally recognised, it looks more helpless in its own backyard.

These are days where strong propaganda obscures the most basic of common sense. To begin with a simple question. A hallmark of the strategic success of any government is whether it expands the options available that can help you achieve your core objectives. Have the options available to India expanded?

The first core component of having options is raw capability. One would be hard-pressed to find any evidence that India’s capabilities, on any dimension of hard power, have significantly changed for the better over the last four years. The military modernisation programme seems to be still in the phase of arming without aiming; all the grand talk of defence production in the private sector has not taken off. As Vipin Narang has pointed out, a central element of our deterrence capability, Arihant, is still out of commission.

{Who is Vipin Narang to say anything? He is another NPA munna in the US. Besides even if Arihant is operational its K-15 missiles don't have much range. Its the Agni 5 which has the proper range to reach the principal challenger and is operational. Arihant becomes more potent after K4 missile. The phrase 'arming without aiming' is a copy from Asley Tellis polemic. Lets have some original language.}


Defence expenditures in real terms have been falling. It is only in the fourth year in office that Cabinet has finally approved a panic buying of assault and sniper rifles. The one element on our strategy vis-a-vis Pakistan is fortifying our bases so that they are not easy targets of terrorist attacks. As the situation in Jammu and Kashmir has shown, we do not seem to have made much success of this. The sophistication in the political establishment on understanding military matters is scarcely more evident. India’s raw hard power capabilities still constrain options.

{2017 was a banner year where a large number of terrorists and their leaders were killed. Yes, there are attacks but as long as Pakistan is there, there will be terrorist attacks. So persistence of terrorist attacks is not the absence of hard power. The large purchase of the assault rifles means long dissidence/argument has been broken and decision made. This is hard evidence that political establishment gets the essence of the military matters.}


The second component of having more options is new partnerships and alliances. India has been forthright enough to deepen its partnerships with Japan, Australia and other countries concerned about China. Its engagement with West Asia is impressive. It has announced greater maritime ambitions. These might be worthwhile initiatives in their own right. But these initiatives do not, for the most part, help mitigate India’s core vulnerabilities. It is not clear that these initiatives are enough to get Pakistan to change its behaviour, or secure our long-term objectives in relation to China. It tells you something about the unreality gripping public strategic discourse that our hearts flutter with joy at a term like “Indo-Pacific”. This term may have some nominal rhetorical value.

{Firstly all these alliances are all to contain the two core issues. Alliances in West are to corner Pakistan. The others are to corner China. And it has been quite successful unless one has wilful blindness as Shivashankar Menon who tweeted this article.}


But the idea that merely by creating a new maritime nomenclature that flatters us, we will somehow outgrow the real strategic dilemmas that face us vis-a-vis China and Pakistan, is wishful thinking. It is good India is deepening its engagement from Seychelles to Oman, acquiring new docking capabilities and logistical support. But with what wars and what interventions, what military objectives will these achieve? It is almost like we will acquire these facilities without any clear sense of the uses to which we will put them. They signal our global intent but do not add much to our capabilities.

{During WWII, as America was acquiring British bases it was also verry unclear how they will help them in coming decades. Same logic here. You cant have capabilities without hard bases. From East Africa to the South China Sea is Indian interest area.}


This expansive outreach has also, in some strategic circles, created this illusion that India can outgrow its region; it does not have to be tied down to its geography. From Doklam to Kashmir, from the Maldives to Nepal, India has been rudely reminded about how easy it is to put it in a helpless position in its own neighbourhood. The idea that India can do a great power projection without being able to manage its own neighbourhood was a pipe dream in any case. In relation to almost all our neighbours, with the possible exception of Bangladesh, India’s diplomatic, moral and coercive authority stands diminished. In Nepal, it ended up with the worst of both worlds — it did not have the power to follow up its implicit promises to the Madhesis, and no matter how one dresses it up, it has had to eat humble pie and accommodate Oli. India could not exercise any leadership in the Rohingya crisis. In the Maldives, it is looking increasingly more helpless.

{Only the wilful blind would think Dokhlam is a defeat for India. No point in rebutting. India does not have great power ambitions. Only Nehruvian fools hanging out in MEA have such foolish ideas.}


To put it politely, our Pakistan strategy is in tatters. The fact that the Americans might be willing to sanction Pakistan is a double-edged sword. For one thing, in the short run it will lead to Pakistan turning the heat on India in the hope that ratcheting up the tensions, and provoking an Indian response, will once again put the spotlight on the risks of the Kashmir crisis. We trumpeted the fact that surgical strikes would be a deterrent; they turned out to be a virtually useless instrument. Worse, the fact that we trumpeted them so loudly has created a domestic expectation of retaliation, every time more Indian soldiers are killed. So we are caught in a political trap on engagement with Pakistan. On the one hand, the NSAs are apparently talking. On the other hand, you have created a public discourse where a chief minister has to explain that she is not being anti-national in calling for talks with Pakistan. There is a simple point: Even if you intend to exercise military options, they have to be embedded in a political strategy. Is there a political strategy on Pakistan at all, or is it all bluster covering up a great floundering?

{i]{There is a political strategy for Pakistan. But no need to telegraph it. As for Mufti, BJP strategy was to replace the anti-national INC-NC gang from power in Jammu Kashmir. It was totally inconceivable that BJP would e in the J&K govt ever. The writer is very frustrated as he is unable to discern the GOI moves.}[/i]



China’s aggressive posture has to make India wary. But surely the idea of deft diplomacy is that you do not reach a point where literally every single line of engagement becomes a zero-sum game, and you convert a hard-nosed contest of interests into a more publicly-charged, ideologically potent contest of self-esteem. Perhaps we do not have any other options. But the net result is that we are more cornered by China than we were a few years ago.
{On the other hand Xi Jinping new China policy is itself a symbol of changing China.}


Add to this the atrocious deterioration of public discourse in India, where Mohan Bhagwat can openly taunt the army, and you have to wonder: Have India’s strategic options in dealing with its core challenges expanded or have they diminished? On any measure, hard power, diplomacy, alliances, political framing, and consistency of domestic resolve, we seem to have fewer not more options. The vigour of Modi’s travels can barely disguise the fact that in terms of India’s security objectives, he is looking very weak indeed. Any other prime minister would have been hauled over the coals if India had been backed into the corner it is now.


{This is core burr that is hurting the writer and his ilk.}

The author is vice chancellor, Ashoka University. Views are personal


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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby SSridhar » 16 Feb 2018 07:12

Iranian President Rouhani could give India key to port - Indrani Bagchi, ToI

Relevant excerpts
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s visit to India, which began on Thursday, could see the two sides seal details of the final take over of operations of the strategically important Chabahar port by India. Chabahar is turning out to be a success story in the India-Iran relationship. With the operationalisation of the port, it is witnessing high activity, and there are unconfirmed reports of traffic being diverted from Karachi to Chabahar.

In an attempt to circumvent the banking problems caused by western sanctions on Iran, India will, for the first time, allow investment in rupees in Iran. This is a special arrangement, sources said, which is only allowed for Nepal and Bhutan.

Rouhani is expected to meet the Shia community in Hyderabad and will meet the Parsi community in New Delhi, again a new element in an Iranian President’s visit. Parsis fled persecution in Iran hundreds of years ago.

Rouhani’s visit comes days after Modi completed a fournation tour of the Gulf and Middle East, and weeks after Modi welcomed Iran’s declared enemy, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to India.

In the coming months, India is expected to host Jordanian King Abdullah and Saudi King Mohammad Bin Salman as well, showing the balancing act that Indian diplomacy has to play in this volatile but important region.

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby sum » 16 Feb 2018 15:10

Are we conceding that the Shias are a Iranian 5th column within India by giving a separate meeting of Shia leaders with the Iranian prez?

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby panduranghari » 17 Feb 2018 15:06

What does PB Mehta want? GUBO?

Ramana ji, Arvind Viramani posted a counter to this. You retweeted this.

https://t.co/IbezRTzn35

India’s National Security strategy & FP: Q&A
Q1: Has India’s Hard Power increased in 4yrs?
A1: Yes, but marginally. Among the improvements are in troop mobility in Himalayan region and surveillance in IOR.
Q2: Are new partnerships expanding India’s Options?
A2: Definitely yes. India’s naval advantage in IOR has to be safeguarded by establishing low cost beachheads in IOR locations where China may try to establish naval bases. The unified/inseparable nature of the terrorist threat is gradually being recognized.
Q3: Is India’s National Security focus, the Indo-Pacific?
A3: No, it’s the Indian Ocean & the IOR region. The historical legacy area of interest from Suez to Singapore (Malacca straits) has been extended Eastward to Sunda-Lombok Straits.
Q4. If Indian Interest is in IOR why bother about Indo-Pacific/SCS.
A4 : (a) Japan & India Need each other as partners. We have to show sensitivity to each other’s primary concerns; (b) Vietnam is an old 40-50 year friend-partner. The cost -benefit ratio of closer cooperation with it is low.
Q5: Are we “more cornered by China” now than 5 years ago?
A5: No evidence for this. On the contrary Indian Govt has acted firmly w/o loosing its diplomatic cool or being provoked by war cries from #CCP propaganda machinery (#GT). When you stand up to a bully expect him to react violently.
Q6. is India’s Pakistan Strategy in tatters?
A6: India’s Pakistan strategy has changed to focus on reducing Pakistan’s policy of cross border terrorism through diplomatic and military means. The change is in the right direction, but it has two weakness. The strategic strike was overplayed, perhaps because of the mistaken assumption of quick results & little counter reaction. The second weakness is over- dependence on conventional war fighting approaches. We need to develop a comprehensive, multidimensional unconventional defence strategy( http://dravirmani.blogspot.in/…/terrorism-is-unconventional… )
Unconventional war has many aspects among which are Cross-border terrorism and the Three wars Strategy (Legal War, Media War, Psychological war (PsyOps). A successful Unconventional Defence Strategy includes Counter Terror (CT) plus a multidisciplinary approach to countering #3WarsStrategy. A 100 year war cannot be fought with 90 days of ammunition. The unconventional war doctrine must aim to turn the Pakistan military’s 50 year old doctrinal narrative of Muslim Pakistan fighting for survival against Hindu India on its head: The reality is that it’s the Pakistani Army & their pet Jehadis which are collaborating with Chinese Communist Party #CCP oligarchs, who are eliminating Islam from China. India must expose the craven collaboration between Pakistan Army & #CCP. Genuinely pious Muslims must be provided the facts, by translating #CCP orders into local languages. This will undoubtedly inspire proud J&K Muslims to oppose the Pakistan army in different parts of J&K!

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby JE Menon » 17 Feb 2018 23:56

http://indianexpress.com/article/opinio ... ssion=true

The PB Mehta article linked above is being bandied about as some sort of serious criticism of the government’s foreign/strategic policy. In reality, it is nothing more than political diatribe couched as analysis, rhetoric with little indication of reasoned thought behind it and just reflective of a low political cunning combined with plain intellectual laziness and dishonesty. (Forgive errors grammatical or otherwise, typing on the fly).

What is unfortunate, but sadly not surprising, is that former NSA Shiv Shankar Menon has retweeted it referring to it as “accurate”!

So let’s look at this a little more deeply, starting with the very first sentence:

“India finds itself increasingly cornered into a strategic cul-de-sac”.

Really! How so? The dishonesty of this article is transparent in the follow through. The writer accepts that diplomacy “expands” (whatever that means, but let’s assume he means that it is becoming far more involved, robust and immediate with a large number of partners, and also increasingly visible on the global stage). But political options “seem to” decrease. The tone is being set here. While the writer admits (as he cannot but) that diplomacy is reaching out to look east and west, the strategic space does not “seem” to be expanding.

In other words, the positives are accepted as real even by the writer, but the negatives only “seem” to be so. Yet this is the flimsy basis on which the rest of the verbiage is built. The political sourness is clear in the language, referring to the government’s “bluster about a strong state”. One wonders where the current government’s language on strength of the state has not been backed by action (there are sufficient examples which any serious observer would be aware of), and what the bluster factor for comparison is with other world governments or previous governments in India itself. The political knifeplay is clear.

Still, guess what, the writer feels “doubts about its military capabilities are growing equally louder” (sic). One wonders where? We would like to know where such doubts are growing "louder", other than in the ideologically corroded minds of think-tankers in India, indebted to a discredited elite and floundering, in fact, to pay it in some meaningful way.

“So, paradoxically, India finds itself in this position that even as it is globally recognised, it looks more helpless in its own backyard.” It appears the writer assumes that just because he says it, everyone must believe this to be true. The world has changed. We are showing face in the South China Sea and China is in the Indian Ocean. Pakistan continues killing Indians, and unlike in the past, this government is returning the favour in spades. When the dragon bares its teeth on the Himalyan ridgelines, the tiger growls and prowls menacingly close to the fire.

My sense is that these “looks more helpless” type of comments generally come from folk who feel that any move by India to articulate its position forcefully runs the risk of counter-action “and then what will we do”? Appearances are what matters to them. How can a chaiwallah take all these grand measures on behalf of India, of which folks like writer of the article and a coterie of what are known as the Lutyens Elite are the gatekeepers. The impudence. In fact, the truth is they don’t know what to make of it. It is they who are floundering trying to find solid ground under their ideological feet.

That’s why you find sentences such as these: “These are days where strong propaganda obscures the most basic of common sense. To begin with a simple question. A hallmark of the strategic success of any government is whether it expands the options available that can help you achieve your core objectives. Have the options available to India expanded?”

Can anyone with a modicum of honesty really look at the last three years and say the options available to India haven’t been expanded? Relations with virtually every country have been improved upon. On the nuclear front, we are now members of the Wassenaar Arrangement, and China is the only roadblock en route to NSG membership – and it is not India which is standing alone on that one. Militarily, agreement after agreement has been signed with one country after another in the region, not to mention a steady growth in economic relations. If these do not represent a widening of options I don’t know what does. A prime minister who can entertain the Israeli prime minister, visit the West Bank separately, then travel to the UAE and Oman, just before hosting the Iranian president is certainly one who has not just widened options, but created new ones that were seemingly outside the realm of possibilities for his predecessor Sonia Gandhi.

The following two paragraphs are pure blather on political science 101, “raw capability”, borrowed phrases (thanks Ramana) like “arming without aiming” (as it that’s some kind of sin!), “defence production in the private sector has not taken off” (yes, over 50 years of socialist/Marxist neglect can be fixed in under 4 years). And Arihant is “out of commission” – our first indigenous nuclear submarine is facing some issues. There’s a learning curve on these things and more are being built. The writer should know that such comments are literally below the belt, because there is nothing that this government can do if a submarine needs repair other than fix it and build others so that we are not exposed. The government is doing that. And the writer should know that. Dishonesty.

There is some acknowledgement of the successful partnerships being built by the government, but it “is not clear that these initiatives are enough to get Pakistan to change its behaviour, or secure our long-term objectives in relation to China”. First let’s tackle the bit about China. I’d like to know, as I’m sure anyone would, what would secure our long-term objectives vis-a-vis China with certainty. It is a silly formulation because no one can be “clear” that anything will do that. This government, or any government for that matter, can only do the right things – encourage trade, encourage moderation, be firm where it needs to be and flexible where it must. And the government has been doing that, certainly with more clarity than in the past, and definitely with more firmness.

On Pakistan, if the writer believes anything other than co-operative military action (or something so close to it) will get that failed country to change its behaviour, he is mistaken. In reality, there is not much India can do other than repayment in kind with interest. And make every effort to separate that entity into its constituent parts. It is not only in the interest of India now, but of the world. This reality may light the minds of some in Pakistan enough to get them to change by themselves, but no one with any sense, common or sixth, will be betting on it.

Here's another gem: “It tells you something about the unreality gripping public strategic discourse that our hearts flutter with joy at a term like “Indo-Pacific”. This term may have some nominal rhetorical value”. Pure nonsense. It seems the writer is confusing the flutter in the media to reflect the general disposition. I suspect the military establishment as well as the security managers in the government are a bit more hard-headed than the writer gives them credit for. In any event, the term itself is something that the US is using to signal its own priorities, and as far as that matters, it is a symbolic tilt in our direction which holds the promise of becoming a substantive one.

And coming for someone who was whining about lack of capability building just a few paragraphs earlier, this bit sounds downright out of place: “It is good India is deepening its engagement from Seychelles to Oman, acquiring new docking capabilities and logistical support. But with what wars and what interventions, what military objectives will these achieve? It is almost like we will acquire these facilities without any clear sense of the uses to which we will put them. They signal our global intent but do not add much to our capabilities”. Say what? We just signed these agreements over the last couple of years, and these will be built upon. It is the clearest indication that the state is expanding its options precisely with the intention of having the capability to deal with unpredictable events in the Indian Ocean littoral. Is the writer saying that unless you can predict precisely what will occur, the capabilities should not be built up?

However, it is in this paragraph that the real unscratchable itch is revealed, the perennial sense that this sort of playing at the top division is beyond us. Observe: “This expansive outreach has also, in some strategic circles, created this illusion that India can outgrow its region; it does not have to be tied down to its geography. From Doklam to Kashmir, from the Maldives to Nepal, India has been rudely reminded about how easy it is to put it in a helpless position in its own neighbourhood. The idea that India can do a great power projection without being able to manage its own neighbourhood was a pipe dream in any case”.

First note the sleight of hand, the ducking of responsibility, for what is to come. It is in “some strategic circles” – the clearest indication that he wrenched it out of his own rear, but does not want to own it because the writer knows that it is a spineless posture. Check out the language: “created this illusion that India can outgrow its region”, “rudely reminded about how easy it is to put it in a helpless position”, and then see the examples he puts out. Doklam, if anything, was a clear indication that India will not brook any Chinese nonsense, and China was the one that was clearly tied down there. Kashmir is not something that began in 2014. In the Maldives, the situation is still fluid and maybe the writer’s enthusiasm for surrender got the better of him. In Nepal, well, we have had some issues for some time now, but it’s hardly an example by which to assert India being “tied down to is geography”. It is a reality that today, nothing of global consequence can happen without India being consulted - and in the case of the Modi government, most foreign leaders seem quite comfortable doing it directly with the prime minister who has worked on what his predecessors built up gradually.

What this sort of rhetorical language indicates is a mindset that is defeatist and pessimistic, but most of all cynical. It is suggestive of a joyless mindscape that sees nothing good coming out of the will of the majority, unless it is articulated through a select cabal of mutually beholden comrades. The next two paragraphs are more of the same tired verbal diarrhoea, until it comes to this question: “Is there a political strategy on Pakistan at all, or is it all bluster covering up a great floundering?” Since the writer feels the government is incompetent on this front, perhaps it is time for him, and others like him, to come up with a strategy to end Pakistan’s terrorism sponsorship. It should not involve giving up any territory, and it should involve recovering Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir as parliament insists.

The writer then comes up with this gem: “We are more cornered by China than we were a few years ago”. How did he measure this “more” bit? And where is the corner? We can only roll our eyes at the desperate effort to show how the government has screwed up somewhere. I’m tempted to surrender on this one and say, yes, Modi messed up on China and dolt-in-waiting Rahul by having dinner with the Chinese ambassador fixed that mess. Childish.

And we are back to his true gripe: “Add to this the atrocious deterioration of public discourse in India, where Mohan Bhagwat can openly taunt the army” bla bla bla….The fact of the matter “seems” to be that this poor fellow has been so downtrodden by the change on the political landscape in India that he’s simply prepared to say anything so long as it hurts Modi, who probably has undermined his fixed positions on how India should be run. Sad, but funny in a way.

Finally, here the writer spews his real bile: “On any measure, hard power, diplomacy, alliances, political framing, and consistency of domestic resolve, we seem to have fewer not more options. The vigour of Modi’s travels can barely disguise the fact that in terms of India’s security objectives, he is looking very weak indeed. Any other prime minister would have been hauled over the coals if India had been backed into the corner it is now.” But here, too, the author covers his rear with a “seem”. And apparently Modi is “looking” very weak indeed. Any half-wit who paid even casual attention to the events of the last three years will immediately recognise that this writer is not interested in the truth - if he can say with a straight face that the Modi government has not created more options in diplomacy, alliances, consistency of domestic resolve or hard power.

In fact, this so-called analysis is a collection of bald-faced lies, covered up with the strategic use of fudge-words. Gutless.

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby Parasu » 18 Feb 2018 15:28

The letter is written in the backdrop of India doing nothing at all in Maldives.
Not to speak of doing nothing for long on the Pakistan front. So overall despite the so called nationalist government at the centre, we are still where we were under the commi UPA govt. Nothing wrong in saying so.
India must have intervened in Maldives, kicked out Yameen and `Miloseviced` him. It did not.
India should ve gone to war with Pakistan. Freed up baluchistan and opened up the road to Afghanistan. It did not.

Parrikkar said, the foreign office boys are the reception desk for defence office. So if Modi has not got the acumen to use the defence guys then all so called achievements by foreign office dont matter one bit. That is why this article.
Modi`s achievements are hot air with no concrete change on ground.

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby chetak » 18 Feb 2018 16:00

Parasu wrote:The letter is written in the backdrop of India doing nothing at all in Maldives.
Not to speak of doing nothing for long on the Pakistan front. So overall despite the so called nationalist government at the centre, we are still where we were under the commi UPA govt. Nothing wrong in saying so.
India must have intervened in Maldives, kicked out Yameen and `Miloseviced` him. It did not.
India should ve gone to war with Pakistan. Freed up baluchistan and opened up the road to Afghanistan. It did not.

Parrikkar said, the foreign office boys are the reception desk for defence office. So if Modi has not got the acumen to use the defence guys then all so called achievements by foreign office dont matter one bit. That is why this article.
Modi`s achievements are hot air with no concrete change on ground.


pb metha is a congi lootyens lickspittle of no consequence with a rabid anti modi bias. he is singing for the supper which he hopes will come in 2019, just like that idiot sagarika ghose is. They have all got padma shris' clouding their myopic and tunnel visions.

Modi is politically and strategically astute and very smart too, with his eye on the long shot. He is not going to piss away his agenda because some low iq idiot thinks war and intervention in maldives is the answer.

shitholes like pb metha perform the same role as cockroaches. They carry germs and disease and actively spread them about.

He should be squashed publicly just as turdesai and that dehati buddi aurat burkha butt were squashed.

The maldives will keep. The situation has not changed significantly after the jehadi president cracked down on the judges.

Who buggers whom in their island paradise is their concern. What's a few islamic judges more or less?? their system is sharia.

no change in our assets or the cheeni assets??. So, whose father what goes??

Do you count the cockroaches in your house?? Does it bother you if their numbers go up or down by a few digits??

The same bugger remains in charge as before?

Only, a few of the cockroaches have changed??.

let the muslims on the benighted island change their leadership, if they want. Whoever wins, we should learn to get along with him to protect our interests.

BTW, India is not coy anymore in expressing its interest in afghanistan or baluchistan. A clear warning has gone out which has caused many people to brown their shalwars.

message sent and received. Look up the paki press on youtube, if you don't believe me.

No use of tilting at windmills right now. we just wait and watch. Time enough to act.

Parasu
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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby Parasu » 18 Feb 2018 17:05

chetak wrote:pb metha is a congi lootyens lickspittle of no consequence with a rabid anti modi bias. he is singing for the supper which he hopes will come in 2019, just like that idiot sagarika ghose is. They have all got padma shris' clouding their myopic and tunnel visions.
Modi is politically and strategically astute and very smart too, with his eye on the long shot. He is not going to piss away his agenda because some low iq idiot thinks war and intervention in maldives is the answer.


Modi is an embarrassment trying to hug every reticent foreign dignitary. I fail to see how his attempted grabbing of foreigners helps Indian strategic interests.

shitholes like pb metha perform the same role as cockroaches. They carry germs and disease and actively spread them about.
He should be squashed publicly just as turdesai and that dehati buddi aurat burkha butt were squashed.

Good arguments


The maldives will keep. The situation has not changed significantly after the jehadi president cracked down on the judges.
Who buggers whom in their island paradise is their concern. What's a few islamic judges more or less?? their system is sharia.
no change in our assets or the cheeni assets??. So, whose father what goes??

Yeah, when this jihadi president took away the contract from GMR and gave it to a chinese company, did it affect you in anywhich way.

Do you count the cockroaches in your house?? Does it bother you if their numbers go up or down by a few digits??
The same bugger remains in charge as before?
Only, a few of the cockroaches have changed??.

You have hygiene issues mate. I prefer using "hit" to kill them.

let the muslims on the benighted island change their leadership, if they want. Whoever wins, we should learn to get along with him to protect our interests.
BTW, India is not coy anymore in expressing its interest in afghanistan or baluchistan. A clear warning has gone out which has caused many people to brown their shalwars.

Did Modi call you to inform you about the warning?! You fit the ideal definition of a bhakt.

message sent and received. Look up the paki press on youtube, if you don't believe me.

Watch Youtube. Hmmm. Thats how you deduce India`s star is on the rise. By watching youtube?!

No use of tilting at windmills right now. we just wait and watch. Time enough to act.

Doing that since 60 years that. What is new?

JE Menon
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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby JE Menon » 18 Feb 2018 17:48

>>The letter is written in the backdrop of India doing nothing at all in Maldives.

What do you mean by "nothing at all"? Please see the India Maldives thread.

>>Not to speak of doing nothing for long on the Pakistan front.

Pakistan has been getting regularly hammered to the point where they are asking us to stop. If, on the other hand, you were expecting an end to terrorism from them, then you have been misled. No one has stated this will be the outcome. Will they be deterred? Who knows. But they will be punished. This is not "doing nothing for long". The nature and structure of our riposte and dialogue with Pakistan has changed.

>>So overall despite the so called nationalist government at the centre, we are still where we were under the commi UPA govt. Nothing wrong in saying so.

We are not where we were under the UPA. Therefore it is wrong to say we are.

>>India must have intervened in Maldives, kicked out Yameen and `Miloseviced` him. It did not.
>>India should ve gone to war with Pakistan. Freed up baluchistan and opened up the road to Afghanistan. It did not.

We don't have the power to do either now without thought for repercussions. No one has. Why do you think China is doing a "string of pearls", instead of a ring of fire?

>>Parrikkar said, the foreign office boys are the reception desk for defence office. So if Modi has not got the acumen to use the defence guys then all so called achievements by foreign office dont matter one bit. That is why this article. Modi`s achievements are hot air with no concrete change on ground.

Which ground? Kindly dispute any of the points I've made, if you wish. We can discuss it.

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby Parasu » 18 Feb 2018 18:17

1. Yameen is still in power. After showing middle finger to India for last 4 years.
My problem is not with chinese base in Maldives. India can bring so much force to bear in the region. My problem is with an inherently hostile Yameen getting away with anti-India tirade and actions. I know it was Nasheed who opened the Chinese embassy in Maldives. But if we depose yameen and like I said `accident` him, future rulers in Maldives will know what to expect.

2. No, I dont see any change in Pakistan`s policy towards India. None. Zero. It is only in the wishful thinking of BJP supporters that they see any change.

3. The relationship with Japan improving and the opportunistic and fast paced deal with UAE are the only two positives in foreign policy I see from the BJP govt. Of the two, the first one is more strategic convergence than achievement by Modi.

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby chetak » 18 Feb 2018 18:28

Parasu wrote:
chetak wrote:pb metha is a congi lootyens lickspittle of no consequence with a rabid anti modi bias. he is singing for the supper which he hopes will come in 2019, just like that idiot sagarika ghose is. They have all got padma shris' clouding their myopic and tunnel visions.
Modi is politically and strategically astute and very smart too, with his eye on the long shot. He is not going to piss away his agenda because some low iq idiot thinks war and intervention in maldives is the answer.


Modi is an embarrassment trying to hug every reticent foreign dignitary. I fail to see how his attempted grabbing of foreigners helps Indian strategic interests.

Its Modi's signature style. get used to it.

Why would anyone object??

All the foreigners have gotten used to it and no one dare refuses, even the POTUS and it only seems a big problem with some Indians. Did anyone object to gandhi swanning about half clothed?? with some bedsheet partially wrapped around himself??


shitholes like pb metha perform the same role as cockroaches. They carry germs and disease and actively spread them about.
He should be squashed publicly just as turdesai and that dehati buddi aurat burkha butt were squashed.


Good arguments


The maldives will keep. The situation has not changed significantly after the jehadi president cracked down on the judges.
Who buggers whom in their island paradise is their concern. What's a few islamic judges more or less?? their system is sharia.
no change in our assets or the cheeni assets??. So, whose father what goes??

Yeah, when this jihadi president took away the contract from GMR and gave it to a chinese company, did it affect you in anywhich way.

Did you ever get to the "details" of the GMR "contract"?? Even the chinese could learned much from it. BTW, I have personal knowledge of this "company's sharp "business practices", having been at the receiving end of it

Do you count the cockroaches in your house?? Does it bother you if their numbers go up or down by a few digits??
The same bugger remains in charge as before?
Only, a few of the cockroaches have changed??.

You have hygiene issues mate. I prefer using "hit" to kill them.

unfortunately, we can't do it to some troublesome islanders, no?? It is a hygiene issue there too and I am not your mate

let the muslims on the benighted island change their leadership, if they want. Whoever wins, we should learn to get along with him to protect our interests.
BTW, India is not coy anymore in expressing its interest in afghanistan or baluchistan. A clear warning has gone out which has caused many people to brown their shalwars.

Did Modi call you to inform you about the warning?! You fit the ideal definition of a bhakt.

I am a bhakt and proud of it. Did you only just find out?? Better than dynastic doo doo, no??

message sent and received. Look up the paki press on youtube, if you don't believe me.

Watch Youtube. Hmmm. Thats how you deduce India`s star is on the rise. By watching youtube?!

That's how I deduce what's getting their paki panties in an islamic twist. These you tube videos are recorded versions of their news broadcasts and appear regularly and also some analysis of paki "opinion" makers. Try it, before you knock it.

No use of tilting at windmills right now. we just wait and watch. Time enough to act.

Doing that since 60 years that. What is new?


Look at the other guys who "tried" to do something so many times and wound up in the crapper each and every time. They never had a sense of timing nor of national purpose. Greedy little sods.

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby chetak » 18 Feb 2018 18:44

Parasu wrote:1. Yameen is still in power. After showing middle finger to India for last 4 years.
My problem is not with chinese base in Maldives. India can bring so much force to bear in the region. My problem is with an inherently hostile Yameen getting away with anti-India tirade and actions. I know it was Nasheed who opened the Chinese embassy in Maldives. But if we depose yameen and like I said `accident` him, future rulers in Maldives will know what to expect.

2. No, I dont see any change in Pakistan`s policy towards India. None. Zero. It is only in the wishful thinking of BJP supporters that they see any change.

3. The relationship with Japan improving and the opportunistic and fast paced deal with UAE are the only two positives in foreign policy I see from the BJP govt. Of the two, the first one is more strategic convergence than achievement by Modi.


With so much of saudi money being pumped and sunni wahabi influence that follows it, hatred toward the Hindu is a given.

After all, we are the only country and culture that successfully resisted their conversions, over tens of centuries, in spite of the extreme and genocidal violence and force that was used against us and also we did not allow their desert religion to the spread here.

Yameen is also beholden to the saudis for their money and he has to dance to the tune called by the ones who pay the piper.

Modi is polite to the saudis because of the Indian workers in saudi and the saudis are extremely careful with us because we are a very big and assured market for their oil.

Their reign of terror as one of the biggest swing producers is long gone. It is the US now which will soon become the world's largest oil producer and they are increasingly making inroads into the huge Indian market, both for oil and gas.
Last edited by chetak on 18 Feb 2018 18:50, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby jaysimha » 18 Feb 2018 18:48

http://ignca.gov.in/events_img/31012018_Lecture_by_Prof_Dr_Phan_Thi_Thu_Hien/events.html
Indian New cultural waves in modern vietnam

extension of soft power may be..

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby Philip » 18 Feb 2018 23:18

The fatal flaw in Indian foreign policy is that it completely ignores its armed forces in any geotrategic analysis, has no grand strategy, no vision for where India should be by say 2050 unlike the Chinese or othets,never uses its military capability to back up its diplomacy which is weak and wobbly.It is only when the situ has deteriorated beyond Indian diplomacy's ability, that it suddenly remembers that we have a military force perhaps the 4th largest and most capable on the planet.

Individually Indian institutions like ISRO for instance have become world class, the envy of developed nations, but where is the unified vision of an India developing into a genuine first class nation? Just look at our cities and towns.Can a single one compare with even cities in less developed countries.No integrated services,no pavements, potholed roads, these are the hallmarks of Bangalore the global IT centre .I forgot about the burning lakes too! With this baggage at home of great poverty still 70+ years after independence ruling ourselves, increasing gaps and inequality between rich and poor, crumbling institutions- take the recent SC judges revolt, a corrupt bureaucracy, venal politicians and the rise of intolerance, what picture of India can our diplomats truly promote?

Thus Indian diplomacy does not achieve its full potential abroad.We sign agreements after agreements, usually insuring our energy needs, but where are we on the rungs of leadership as we once where during the heyday of NAM? But for the fact that we're a ripe market of 1.4B people for the world's junk food, banned pharma drugs, a toxic waste dumping ground, consumer products and glitzy goods for the elite and corrupt, and one of the world's largest importer of arms,India is still viewed as a land to be exploited rather than a beacon of hope and leadership for humanity's progress for the future.

No amount of soft diplomacy can replace a "hard" one where Indian diplomacy is backed up by its military power and economic strength.It's why China is streaking ahead across the globe as its diplomacy is backed by eco and mil power too.

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby Pulikeshi » 19 Feb 2018 02:27

JE Menon wrote: In fact, this so-called analysis is a collection of bald-faced lies, covered up with the strategic use of fudge-words. Gutless.


Your rebuttal is very well written. However, one needs to understand that entrenched beauracracy as well as some fifth column supporters are somewhat correctly worried about form over substance and a pseudo military alliance with the West. The gag worthy nature of the messenger PBM not withstanding, there are real issues that need to be addressed.

Here are a few things that Modi govt could (it is just recommendations given one has no clue of real issues up close) do to get things moving even better:

1. India’s New Foreign Secretary Has Inherited a Structural Imbalance He Needs to Fix

2. In Year Four, Modi’s Foreign Policy Needs Some Course Correction

3. Strategic actions not just thinking - needs some structural changes to enable this as the leadership below PMO/Foriegn office - right now Beauracracy runs the roost which is tuned to make incremental changes, but cannot stitch together desperate strategic pieces together into a grand strategy. The Beauracracy is almost incapable of executing economic implementations, perhaps their skill set is better suited to draft policy and inadequate to get in the trenches and complete the work.

4. Indian thinkers (not this govt) have failed in strategic shaping of the Indic-region - case in point Maldives - if Saudi’s are funding madrassas - why is’nt Civil society engaged for example in shaping the religions and beliefs of the Indic-region. For example the Champa people in Viet/Cambodia - they follow a very Hinduized version of Islam. There is absolutely no understanding or education to help enable more such diversity in the Indic region of interest. Just staring a weak outreach to Buddhist countries is a good start, but not enough... India needs to rewind the IOR/Indo-Pacific to not pre-colonial state, but to one before the advent of Islam...I could go on on this topic.... :)

5. The Beauracracy is very uneasy with LEMOA and other such tilts which cause India to be in some pseudo military alliance - so not surprised by the vicious ideological backlash. The US has to be engaged as a regional power that will allow no other regional powers to emerge - see Mearsheimer video. The best way forward is what this govt. has been trying to do - align on tech initiatives in Air/Navy and continue to manage the imbalance between the East and West of India - the US / India coordination to the west of India needs more work.

6. For good and bad, the Indian state has made terrorism & corruption the focal point of engagement with several foriegn countries - these tend to be tactical approaches used in a strategic outcome by other powers... India ends up looking very naive with such approaches... almost like she acts like a super righteous status quo state.

7. Wait - India does come across that way to others :P The new world has Two New - to pick on the Chinese way to think:

  1. India and China were never neighbors - now they are and even in the IOR/Indo-Pacific there is an Indian subcontinental state whereas historically China had to only deal with a partial subcontinental state(s)
  2. India and China historically never worried about the Pacific and very little about the Atlantic - given the US is the hegemon of the Pacific & Atlantic, there is no going back to pre-colonial status quo for India and China.
8. Two posts on why China’s rise will not be peaceful (first one’s audio is bad, but the content is good):
  1. Kanwal Sibal on why China’s raise will not be peaceful:

  2. Mearsheimer on same topic:


All that said, I am with your assessment that this Indian govt has tried to handle a complex changing set of circumstances. There is always room for constructive criticism and feedback on areas to improve...
but to write articles like PBM one comes across more like a Dehati Aurat’s “Woe is me” :((
:mrgreen: :twisted:

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby chetak » 19 Feb 2018 07:40

but to write articles like PBM one comes across more like a Dehati Aurat’s “Woe is me” :((
:mrgreen: :twisted:


I agree but who exactly is PBM fronting for, and why??.

Unless he is paid, one way or the other, this cockroach will not write.

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby KrishnaK » 19 Feb 2018 08:21

chetak wrote:Their reign of terror as one of the biggest swing producers is long gone. It is the US now which will soon become the world's largest oil producer and they are increasingly making inroads into the huge Indian market, both for oil and gas.
Saudi Arabia is still the swing producer of oil.

Why The U.S. Is Not The New “Swing Producer”

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby chetak » 19 Feb 2018 09:17

KrishnaK wrote:
chetak wrote:Their reign of terror as one of the biggest swing producers is long gone. It is the US now which will soon become the world's largest oil producer and they are increasingly making inroads into the huge Indian market, both for oil and gas.
Saudi Arabia is still the swing producer of oil.

Why The U.S. Is Not The New “Swing Producer”


I still say that US will muscle its way into controlling the international oil market prices.

Its the logical and strategic play of a superpower.

They are already into the vast Indian market just like the russians are. The clout of the sheiks is fast waning and their oil income, which affects their ability to meddle in jehadi affairs, the world over will be constrained.

If these russia/amreki guys move into India and block off the sheiks, then there is no way that other customers can or will be able to absorb the spare production capacity released in the gulf by the russia/amreki supply to the vast Indian markets.

Prices will be constrained just like their oil production.

Previously unheard of measures like sales tax and income taxes are slowly surfacing in many gulf states.

The end game of US dominated oil prices displacing the OPEC mafia controls may already be in play.

chetak
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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby chetak » 19 Feb 2018 12:20

Shefali Vaidya
15 hrs ·
Proud of the way Narendra Modi government has handled the state visit of #PappuMan Of Canada. Trudeau has been deliberately snubbed at every step of his state visit, a result of his actively courting Khalistani elements back home in Canada.

Trudeau was received at the airport not by the PM or even the Minister for External Affairs, Sushma Swaraj or even Gen. V. K Singh. Instead, he was welcomed by state minister for Agriculture! UP CM Yogi Adityanath refused to welcome Trudeau on his people-atory visit to the Taj Mahal!

Trudeau had refused to meet Amarinder Singh, the elected CM of Punjab under pressure from his Khalistani colleague. Narendra Modi has stood up for Amarinder Singh, even though he is from the Congress.

It takes a spine to take a stand, and I am very happy that this government has taken a clear stand. Let all the libtard journos go orgasmic over Canadian Pappu, the message from the GoI is clear.

'You don't mess with our national interests with impunity. Not ANYMORE!'

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby panduranghari » 24 Feb 2018 14:59

chetak wrote:
KrishnaK wrote: Saudi Arabia is still the swing producer of oil.

Why The U.S. Is Not The New “Swing Producer”


I still say that US will muscle its way into controlling the international oil market prices.

Its the logical and strategic play of a superpower.

They are already into the vast Indian market just like the russians are. The clout of the sheiks is fast waning and their oil income, which affects their ability to meddle in jehadi affairs, the world over will be constrained.

If these russia/amreki guys move into India and block off the sheiks, then there is no way that other customers can or will be able to absorb the spare production capacity released in the gulf by the russia/amreki supply to the vast Indian markets.

Prices will be constrained just like their oil production.

Previously unheard of measures like sales tax and income taxes are slowly surfacing in many gulf states.

The end game of US dominated oil prices displacing the OPEC mafia controls may already be in play.



Only 12% of tight oil(oil from fracking) is ready for use by the refineries. Most refineries are designed to process heavier crude like from Saudi. So you may ask what about the 88%? Well that crude needs different refining process. They can't be blended with Saudi or Venezuelan or Canadian crude. They export it to Chinese and some to Motabhai's refineries in India.(( Motabhai at the moment is loosing money hand over fist in his shale business in Eagleford. The only real source of shale with some consistency is Permian and Motabhai wants in in it. But unless he sells Eagleford stake, he will not buy.)) Keystone XL which is supposed to bring Canadian oil to Cushing, Oklahoma is not fully running so at the moment US can't really export as much crude, but then can and they will when this pipeline is complete. The 88% tight oil has no distillates which are used for aviation fuel or diesel or plastic manufacture either. So how can US dominate oil energy market? If Saudi and Russia agree to capping production, then the price of oil can rise, but this rise increases profitability of tight oil. This makes US produce some more oil (but not all this product is useful as explained earlier). But low prices screws over Saudi and Russia. So what gives.

Cushing Oklahoma sets WTI, while Rotterdam sets Brent prices.

If Saudi and Russia want to break US control over oil- OPEC notwithstanding, they have but one choice. Back away from oil settlement in dollars. Chinese are vying for purchasing stake in ARAMCO via private equity. No one knows how this will play out. But to know the future, we can take assistance from the futures market.

Oil futures at the moment are trading in contango I.e. Future price of oil is supposed to be lower than current price. This works for energy deficit USA. It does not for Saudi and Russia.

What China wants is a stake in ARAMCO to guarantee future oil delivery. What they want is for oil futures to move to backwardation I.e. Future price higher than current so that the ARAMCO IPO is priced higher with expected increased revenue for Saudi. China does not want to spend more but unless oil price is north of 100$, there won't be an ARAMCO IPO.

Chinese Treasury holdings are decreasing alarmingly. How long will this game go on? We shall soon find out.

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby Philip » 24 Feb 2018 19:04

Sadly Indian diplomacy has been too engaged with overseas matters in far- off countries, while the backyard and neighbourhood has increasingly come under heavy Chin influence.Only Bangladesh and its strongwoman, Hasina, who hanged the perpetrators of the '71 era and murderers of her family, has shown real guts.Thankfully she is a friend of India despite Chin inroads, the latest being beating us to the stock exchange .

Nepal has gone the pro- China way, and aggressively so.A complete collapse of our Nepal strategy and dismal failure of the Nepal desk at the MEA.The new Nepalese admin. want to curtail recruitment of Gurkha soldiers to India and who knows, he might offer Gurkhas to the Chinese in the future, after all they served the British well in Hong Kong and still do.

Sri Lanka despite Rajapakse being defeated we did b*gger all to prevent the HTota deal from being sealed, still haven't got the airport there to run and other deals with the GOSL which would bind us together securitywise.Now Rajapakse threatens a comeback too in the near future, armed with a huge warchest courtesy the loot he scooted with thanks to deals with the Chins, sending his island into the clutches of the Chin loansharks, which would be an unmitigated disaster for us should he succeed in toppling the current regime as is underway.

The Maldives is an absurdity where a tadpole of a tyrant is sticking a fish up our MEA's backside , amazingly threatening India,and we do f- all about it.The Chins are all over the Maldives peoplewise.They've physically by planting thousands of Chin nationals there virtually taken over and we're too timid to do anything scared of injuring Chins in any intervention which may see them open up a front anywhere in the Himalayas supported by the Pakis.Read my post in the LR deployment td.

Burma is a 50-50 situ as of now with a slight advantage to China since it has signed agreements for port development and supplies them with arms.But they are looking now towards Russia for the same, not to depend entirely upon the Chins.

Then comes Pak.A complete walk-over as far as keeping them out from Gwadar to POK.China is even trying to make deals with the Baluchi oppn. to avoid them striking against Chin nationals.Much money is planned to pass hands.With Chin support, J&K is increasingly being set alight at the local level with the population increasingly anti- govt.

So much for our "bold" diplomacy.We've dropped the cannon ball right onto our toes and are clueless and floundering in our very own neighbourhood.This is because our diplomat's noses are in the air, have forgotten to look at the ground and our diplomacy is NOT backed up by military force.Sadly the political will is also missing , sorely lacking in full confidence in the armed forces thanks to babudom.All decisions and military action is knee-jerk.We are doing v.little covertly to cause Pak real pain by administering bitter medicine to its military leadership at home.

Why? The Defence Ministry should be the no.2 spot in the cabinet and the military embedded in the policy planning and execution of our foreign policy where it has deliberately been kept out by those who can go to war only verbally.This is why we hear ad nauseum that ghastly phrase " befitting reply", every time there is a Paki terror atrocity killing precious Indian lives.The govt. should have a Dy.PM in charge of both defence and foreign policy assisted by two Dy.Mins and two Mins. of State.A three- tiered structure.This way our diplomacy will carry "weight" behind it.Remember Teddy R. ?
" Speak softly and carry a big stick".Today the world leader who follows that astute advice is ironically one "Vlad-the-Bad" Putin! Not Mr.Modi.You can see the results Putin has obtained in regaining thd Crimea, styming the West and fascists in the UKR and routing the IS in Syria , apart from sundry US and Wahaabi backed mercenary forces against Assad,leaving him as the strongman on the brink of winning the Syrian war.

The MEA is a toothless outfit that can only nibble at its " food" and suck through a straw like a geriatric.Even deals
with Iran are limited in scope when they could expand enormously simply because we don' t want to annoy white massa Uncle Sam, the deity which our idea-crippled outfit turns to for inspiration.That outfit is in full retreat in the ME and has done zilch to prevent the Chin take-away of the Spratlys.No wonder we're doing zilch in the Maldives and and are sitting sipping our scotch in Lutyens Bagh at favourite watering holes, pontificating accompanied with bluff and bluster, wondering what " befitting reply" , note verbale,we can send as a broadside to Yameen!While he rants and raves at us, neither the FM or PM has forthrightly countered his threats and read the riot act out to him.

The last hardcore diplomat we had who could skate on a blade on thin ice was Dixit.There have been a few good men after him too, but too few to make a difference.The MEA requires a real spring cleaning with diplomats who can walk India's talk.More urgent reason for integration of the armed forces in our diplomacy.If we don't, we'll remain a toothless tiger that the likes of Yameen can finger.

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby arun » 25 Feb 2018 10:22

Seems Canada’s policy of permitting immigrants from the Mohammadden Terrorism Fomenting Islamic Republic of Pakistan has resulted in Canada falling under the baleful spell of the conspiracy minded people originating in that Islamic Republic :P .

“Senior Government Official” of Canada sees an Indian Saazish :wink: in the invitation given by the Canadians to convicted Khalistani terrorist, Jaspal Atwal. Says “rogue political elements in India were behind the invitation:roll: .


The suggestion by a senior government official that rogue political elements in India were behind the invitation of a Sikh extremist to an event with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is “dangerously irresponsible” and risks eroding diplomatic ties, Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer says.

Scheer criticized the government’s damage control efforts that saw unnamed officials — perhaps one or more — suggest in some news reports that officials in India were somehow behind the embarrassing invitation of a convicted Sikh extremist, Jaspal Atwal, to an event with Trudeau during his India visit.


Federal claim of Indian interference in Trudeau event is ‘dangerously irresponsible,’ says Andrew Scheer : The Conservative leader challenged Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to either back up the anonymous claim or renounce it.

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby sudeepj » 25 Feb 2018 12:27

This senior unnamed official is actually the Canadian NSA.. He gave the briefing on background but some Canadian journalist are pissed that these people are playing such casual games with an important country like India and also because its just so cynical. (http://brianlilley.com/justin-trudeau-p ... the-truth/)

Turdeau has thoroughly corrupted the Canadian liberal establishment by his hobnobbing with both Khalistanis and also the Islamists. Thankfully, the coverage of Turdeau is almost universally bad.. His bhangra moves were cringey as hell and this trip might push the Canadian population to realize that their chocolate-cream PM is actually just bullshit. The only people I see defending him are either Islamists or Khalistanis. Follow Candice Malcolm on twitter for a rolling coverage of what an ass Turdeau made of himself.

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby arun » 26 Feb 2018 19:31

^^^ Thanks for pointing out that the conspiracy theory that India somehow engineered Canada's invitation to Canadian Khalistani Terrorist Jaspal Atwal was floated by an individual as senior as Canada's National Security Advisor, Daniel Jean. The Indian media does not seem to have cottoned on that this was the case.

From the link you posted:

And yet here we are, two weeks later and the prime minister is using his own national security advisor Daniel Jean to peddle a fake news conspiracy theory as to why and how a terrorist and would be assassin was welcomed to India and invited to dinner and a reception with Trudeau’s official tour.

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby arun » 27 Feb 2018 17:37

X Posted from the Terroristan thread. The conduct of the PRC at FATF will need to be closely monitored.

The Peoples Republic of China’s Foreign Ministry on Higher than Himalaya’s, Deeper than Indian Ocean, Sweeter than Honey, As close as Lips to Teeth Iron Brother, the Mohammadden Terrorism Fometing Islamic Republic of Pakistan getting hit with a FATFa from FATF :

Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lu Kang's Regular Press Conference on February 27, 2018 ….

Q: Pakistan has been at the forefront of the war against terrorism. How do you see the role of the international community in supporting Pakistan in its efforts to counter terrorism?

A: As my colleaues and I have said many times, the Pakistani government and its people have contributed and sacrificed enormously for the fight against terrorism. Their hard efforts, both in terms of ground operations and in the field of terrorism financing, are there for all to see.

Meanwhile, we’ve been calling on all relevant parties of the international community to view and evaluate Pakistan’s counter-terrorism efforts in an objective and fair way, instead of just pointing fingers at Pakistan out of bias. As an all-weather strategic cooperative partner for Pakistan, China will continue to enhance communication, coordination and cooperation with Pakistan on counter-terrorism.

Q: Reports say that China has not opted to bail out Pakistan in the recent Financial Action Task Force meeting, resulting in a kind of situation where Pakistan has to face sanctions. Can you comment on this?

A: I just talked about China’s take on Pakistan’s efforts and contributions on international counter-terrorism, so I won’t repeat it. As I specifically pointed out, the efforts and contributions made by Pakistan can also be seen in the field of terrorism financing. In recent years, Pakistan has made important progress in actively strengthening financial regulations to combat terror financing. China highly recognizes that and hopes all relevant parties of the international community could arrive at an objective and fair conclusion on that.

Clicky FMPRC


India also hopes that the PRC highly recognizes that PRC as a relevant party of the international community could arrive at an objective and fair conclusion on the matter of the solid track record of its Higher than Himalaya’s, Deeper than Indian Ocean, Sweeter than Honey, As close as Lips to Teeth Iron Brother, the Mohammadden Terrorism Fometing Islamic Republic of Pakistan, in fomenting Terrorism.

MEA Spokesman Raveesh Kumars Tweet:

Congratulations to China on its election as Vice President of Financial Action Task Force at the #FATF plenary mtg. on 23 February 2018. We remain hopeful that China would uphold & support the objectives & standards of FATF in a balanced, objective, impartial & holistic way.

Clicky MEA Tweet

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby ShauryaT » 13 Mar 2018 01:47

The 56-Inch Fist

Pakistan and China have forever been tricky and taxing neighbours, but of late New Delhi has lost leverage even with smaller nations in the region. An expert’s inquiry into why


The real problem is China's deepening economic engagement in our neighbourhood. Bilateral trade between China and most of our neighbours comfortably exceeds our own trade with them. While we may take some comfort from the fact that India absorbs more of the exports of these nations than does China, the key point is China's ability to smooth over balance of trade situation with them by means of capital flows as investments.

More recently, we have seen China adopt a proactive stance in shaping the politics of Sri Lanka, Nepal and the Maldives. While it is to be seen if they will be any more successful than India in such attempts, Chinese activism gives politicians in our neighbourhood more options against an overbearing India.

How, then, should India deal with this slump in ties? The strategic choice is between focusing on bilateral ties with countries that are seen as congenial and crafting a regional approach. The former has been the preferred mode over the past couple of years. But against the backdrop of more recent developments, especially the growing economic footprint of China, it is likely to yield diminishing returns. The government now needs to come up with a clear strategy of regional connectivity and integration backed by resources, if necessary from other partners.

South Asia has three attributes that make it extremely well-suited for such a strategy: the highest population density in the world, linguistic and ethnic overlap across borders, and the presence of a large number of cities close to the borders. But this cannot be an economic or technocratic exercise. New Delhi needs to get the politics right. For starters, the "my way or the highway" attitude prevalent over the past couple of years needs to be jettisoned. Only then can India navigate the short-term problems as well as longer-term constraints that have complicated the exercise of its leadership in the region.

Raghavan, a Senior Fellow at New Delhi's Centre for Policy Research

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby Parasu » 13 Mar 2018 15:54

https://www.tolonews.com/business/iran- ... ar-project
Iran Invites Pakistan To Participate In Chabahar Project

Zarif also said the Chabahar port project was not meant to “encircle Pakistan … strangulate anybody” and twice said Iran would not allow anyone to hurt Pakistan from its territory much like Pakistan would not allow its soil to be used against Iran, Dawn News reported.

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby chetak » 13 Mar 2018 16:16

Parasu wrote:https://www.tolonews.com/business/iran-invites-pakistan-participate-chabahar-project
Iran Invites Pakistan To Participate In Chabahar Project

Zarif also said the Chabahar port project was not meant to “encircle Pakistan … strangulate anybody” and twice said Iran would not allow anyone to hurt Pakistan from its territory much like Pakistan would not allow its soil to be used against Iran, Dawn News reported.


This is a direct message to the pakis, no more, no less.

Moreover, the gas pipeline fiasco with the pakis has soured the eyeranians against the pakis rather badly so they will not be too eager to get into bed with the reneging pakis until some retribution/compensation is made to them by the pakis and this is very difficult for the pakis to do because of their nightmarish and ever worsening financial situation.

I would not read too much into it.

Even if the pakis and chinese do come into chabahar, India may still continue to have a direct access to afghanistan as well as the central asian hinterlands

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby Parasu » 13 Mar 2018 16:44

chetak wrote:
Parasu wrote:https://www.tolonews.com/business/iran-invites-pakistan-participate-chabahar-project



This is a direct message to the pakis, no more, no less.

Moreover, the gas pipeline fiasco with the pakis has soured the eyeranians against the pakis rather badly so they will not be too eager to get into bed with the reneging pakis until some retribution/compensation is made to them by the pakis and this is very difficult for the pakis to do because of their nightmarish and ever worsening financial situation.
I would not read too much into it.
Even if the pakis and chinese do come into chabahar, India may still continue to have a direct access to afghanistan as well as the central asian hinterlands

What direct message. Haha.
Iran needs Indian money to develop its southeastern region. That is why the Chabahar port. Any Indian dreams of having Iran on our side is bullshit. Iran is on the side of money.
Iran and Pakistan are happily cooperating. That is the fact. Pipeline deal or no pipeline deal. India should similarly cooperate with the Gulf monarchies and Saudi Arabia, improving ties with them.

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby Philip » 13 Mar 2018 17:17

Why they confinue to fund beardie fundoos all along our west coast, esp.Kerala. Iran and the Shiites are a more honourable bunch.Are there any Shiite terror groups working against India?.Only Hamas and the Hiz are supported in the main by Iran..The Yemeni rebels another cause, but anti- Indian....?
Last edited by Philip on 13 Mar 2018 21:29, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby chetak » 13 Mar 2018 17:58

Parasu wrote:
chetak wrote:
This is a direct message to the pakis, no more, no less.

Moreover, the gas pipeline fiasco with the pakis has soured the eyeranians against the pakis rather badly so they will not be too eager to get into bed with the reneging pakis until some retribution/compensation is made to them by the pakis and this is very difficult for the pakis to do because of their nightmarish and ever worsening financial situation.
I would not read too much into it.
Even if the pakis and chinese do come into chabahar, India may still continue to have a direct access to afghanistan as well as the central asian hinterlands

What direct message. Haha.
Iran needs Indian money to develop its southeastern region. That is why the Chabahar port. Any Indian dreams of having Iran on our side is bullshit. Iran is on the side of money.
Iran and Pakistan are happily cooperating. That is the fact.?? Pipeline deal or no pipeline deal. India should similarly cooperate with the Gulf monarchies and Saudi Arabia, improving ties with them.


What's haha about it??

Are you ignorant of regional dynamics??

I could post much more but I will not spoon feed so go and read yourself.

http://www.dw.com/en/unhappy-neighbors-afghanistan-india-iran-wary-of-pakistans-jihadist-support/a-38764188

Iran has warned it would target militant hideouts inside Pakistan if Islamabad doesn't act against Sunni jihadists. Pakistan's other two neighbors - Afghanistan and India - also accuse Islamabad of backing terrorists.


Keeping aside diplomatic niceties, Iran has reacted in the strictest possible manner against Sunni militants' activities along its southeastern province of Sistan-Baluchestan, bordering Pakistan.

Jaish al Adl (the Army of Justice), a Sunni militant group based in Pakistan, killed at least ten Iranian border guards last month. The guards were shot with long-range guns, fired from inside Pakistan.

Jaish al Adl has previously claimed responsibility for attacks that killed Iranian troops in 2013 and 2015. The anti-Iran and anti-Shiite militant group is fighting against what it says is discrimination against Sunni Muslims in Pakistan's southwestern Baluchistan province. Sunni militant groups consider Shiites as apostates.

Iran has reacted angrily against Sunni militants' activities along its southeastern province of Sistan-Baluchestan

'Unacceptable'

On Monday, May 8, Iran's army chief said Pakistan must confront Sunni militants or his country would hit their bases itself.

"We cannot accept the continuation of this situation," Major General Mohammad Baqeri, the head of the Iranian armed forces, was quoted as saying by state news agency IRNA.

"We expect the Pakistani officials to control the borders, arrest the terrorists and shut down their bases," Baqeri added.

"If the terrorist attacks continue, we will hit their safe havens and cells, wherever they are," he said.


Last week, Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif visited Islamabad and asked Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to improve border security. Islamabad promised to deploy additional troops along the Pakistani-Iranian frontier.

Pakistan's regional isolation

Iranian-Pakistani relations have been tense for quite some time, but lately there has been a sharp rise in hostility between the two neighboring countries. Experts say that Islamabad's alleged support to Sunni militant groups, most of which operate freely inside Pakistan, is one of the reasons behind the deteriorating ties.



Last week, Iran's FM Javad Zarif visited Islamabad and asked PM Sharif to improve the border security

Shia-majority Iran is not the only country in the region that is unhappy with Islamabad's handling of Sunni militants; Afghanistan and India have long accused Pakistan's leadership of backing terrorist organizations which, they claim, are used by the nation's military establishment to create unrest on their soil and gain geopolitical leverage.

There have been severe clashes between Afghan and Pakistani troops along the Afghan-Pakistani border, and the situation is not very different on the so-called Line of Control, the Indian-Pakistani border along the volatile Kashmir region.

But, for Iran, the main concern regarding Pakistan is Islamabad's renewed defense alliance with its arch-rival Saudi Arabia.

Despite the parliament's decision last year against becoming a party to the intensifying Saudi-Iranian conflict in the Middle East, particularly in Yemen, Islamabad last month approved the appointment of Raheel Sharif, the country's former army chief, as head of the 39-member Saudi-led military coalition. Riyadh says the Muslim nations' alliance was formed to fight terrorism in the region, but experts point out that it is primarily an anti-Iran grouping. Naturally, Tehran is not part of the coalition.

Sattar Khan, DW's correspondent, reports from Islamabad that Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's government has undertaken a diplomatic initiative to allay Tehran's concerns following Raheel Sharif's controversial appointment. But the efforts are unlikely to yield results, says Khan.

"Saudi Arabia and Iran do not trust each other. Also, Riyadh does not want Islamabad to be neutral in the conflict; it wants its full support. In this scenario, how can Pakistan's diplomatic drive be successful?" Aman Memon, a former professor at the Allama Iqbal Open University in Islamabad, told DW.


Pakistan's Sunni religious parties strongly support Saudi Arabia's Yemen campaign

Dependence on Saudi Arabia

In 2015, Riyadh formally requested Pakistan to provide combat planes, warships and soldiers to support the Arab coalition in fighting Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. But the South Asian country's lawmakers voted to remain neutral in the conflict, albeit PM Sharif later clarified in a televised speech that in the case of an aggression against Saudi Arabia, Pakistan would take Riyadh's side.

Saudi Arabia, which is one of Pakistan's biggest financers, was unhappy with Islamabad's reluctance to join the coalition against Yemen's Shiite rebels. The Arab kingdom has been involved in a two-year-long campaign of airstrikes against Houthi rebels, who have taken over swathes of territory in Saudi Arabia's southern neighborhood, raising concerns in Riyadh about a potential Shiite uprising in the kingdom. Saudi Arabia also fears that Iran is working to increase its influence in the region.

Experts say that Pakistan's economic dependence on the Arabian country is also a reason behind its support for Riyadh and Raheel Sharif's appointment. They claim that Pakistan already has troops in Saudi Arabia in an assisting role. But with Sharif taking charge of the alliance, the troops could be directly involved in the battle.

The Arab countries' coalition also has the backing of the United States. In the past few years, Islamabad has drifted away considerably from Washington but analysts say that both countries still have many common strategic interests in the region. Also, the Pakistani military heavily depends on US financial assistance.

Pakistan's military and civilian leadership expressed solidarity with Saudi Arabia in the wake of Riyadh's Yemen attacks

"Recently, a US official visited Saudi Arabia and expressed his country's support to the Saudi alliance. He also lampooned Iran. So the objectives of this grouping are pretty clear," Sabir Karbalai, an Islamabad-based analyst, told DW.

The expert, however, added that Islamabad should have remained neutral in the Saudi-Iranian power struggle.

Deteriorating ties

Islamabad's over-enthusiasm to appease Riyadh could further exacerbate its relations with Tehran.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani visited Pakistan in March last year in an attempt to convince Pakistani authorities to remain neutral in the Middle Eastern conflicts. Iran is aware of the concerns and limitations of its ties with Pakistan, but analysts say it still wants to maintain "normal" relations with Islamabad.

Farhan Hanif Siddiqui, an International Relations expert at the Quaid-i-Azam University, believes that Pakistan needs to assure Iran that the Saudi alliance is not against any country.

"It is vital for Pakistan to convince Iran that the Saudi-led alliance is only against al Qaeda and the so-called "Islamic State." If Tehran continues to believe that the Saudi coalition is targeting the regimes in Iraq and Syria, Pakistan's diplomatic efforts will be in vain," Siddiqui told DW.


Sectarian strife

The South Asian country's intelligentsia and civil society have voiced their displeasure and concern over Raheel Sharif's role in the Saudi alliance and Islamabad's direct involvement in the conflict.

Pakistan's support to Saudi Arabia is likely to increase the Sunni-Shiite tension in the South Asian country. Analysts believe that the Sunni militant groups will feel further emboldened by the fact that the ex-army chief now heads the Saudi-led alliance.


The sectarian strife in Pakistan has been ongoing for some time now, with militant Islamist groups unleashing terror on the minority Shiite groups in many parts of the country. Most of these outfits, including the Taliban, take inspiration from the hard-line Saudi-Wahabi Islamic ideology.

"For Pakistan's Islamic fundamentalists, the country is already a 'Sunni Wall' against Shiite Iran," Siegfried O. Wolf, director of research at the Brussels-based South Asia Democratic Forum (SADF), told DW in an interview.

"The policy of containing the Shiite influence in the region was seriously affected after the collapse of the Sunni Taliban regime in Afghanistan in 2001 and the subsequent overthrow of Saddam Hussein's government in Iraq. These events created a power vacuum which is now being increasingly filled by Tehran. Saudi Arabia does not want to see the rise of Iran and will continue to do anything to ensure Sunni dominance," he underlined.

Additional reporting by Sattar Khan, DW's Islamabad correspondent.

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby Parasu » 13 Mar 2018 18:17

Philip wrote:Why they confinue to fund beardie fundoos all along our west coast, esp.Kerala. Iran anx ghd Shiites are a more honourable bunch.Are there any Shiite terror groups working against India?.Only Hamas and the Hiz are supported in the main by Iran..The Yemeneni rebels another cause, but anti- Indian....?

Didnt they attack the Israeli ambassador in India?!
You dont need shiite fundoos when you can indulge in terror activities directly.
Besides, Philip, You are a regular here. You know I have argued previously that Saudi/Egypt/GCC are no more funding or supporting Yahoos. Its more Turkey,Pakis,Qatar etc. In the last couple of years so many terrorists have been deported from the GCC. Farook Takla is the latest.

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby Philip » 13 Mar 2018 21:41

Yes.You havd a point there.The UAE has been doing a lot more in eccent times.The Indian diaspora of docile workers and biz entities helps it to prosper. Nevertheless, the Saudis are Janus-faced and if the Indian intel agencies can establish that jihadi funding and fundoo- Wahaabi sponsorship esp. in the West coast has significantly reduced, then we can view our options differently.
Iran however is vital to us for sev. reasons.It can create havoc with Gulf petro shipping, allows us to outflank Pak, penetrate Baluchistan and supply Afghanistan avoiding Pak. Pak's anti- Shiite attitude too makes it a natural ally of India in that limited sense.Our huge historic ties are of great importance at the human and most important levelfor sucvess in bi-lateral mutual relations.

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby Parasu » 13 Mar 2018 22:40

Philip wrote:Iran however is vital to us for sev. reasons.It can create havoc with Gulf petro shipping, allows us to outflank Pak, penetrate Baluchistan and supply Afghanistan avoiding Pak. Pak's anti- Shiite attitude too makes it a natural ally of India in that limited sense.Our huge historic ties are of great importance at the human and most important levelfor sucvess in bi-lateral mutual relations.

Is Iran willing to do any of this? No. When Rouhani was here, he was talking of muslim unity.
I will concede that Indian diplomacy itself is partially responsible for stunted relationship with Iran. But Iran is no more a friend than Saudi. Historic ties are bullshit. Iran is a islamic theocracy and iranians have same superiority airs as the Saudis or other ummah states vis a vis India.

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby Akshay Kapoor » 13 Mar 2018 23:52

I agree ‘historic ties’ have no relevance - in fact we don’t even know what that means. However there is definitely space to see if Iran Shi’a vs Pak Sunni conflict can be created. This is perhaps one of the most important tools and shouldn’t be dismissed without a proper analysis.

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby Parasu » 14 Mar 2018 03:55

Akshay Kapoor wrote:I agree ‘historic ties’ have no relevance - in fact we don’t even know what that means. However there is definitely space to see if Iran Shi’a vs Pak Sunni conflict can be created. This is perhaps one of the most important tools and shouldn’t be dismissed without a proper analysis.

Indian diplomacy/foreign policy cant create squat.
Here is Pakistan which maintains good ties with Iran even after joining Saudi coalition against it. It maintains good ties with both China and US.
And is willing to cosy up to Russia as well.
Its because Pakistan knows v v clearly it has to oppose India and India alone.
Indian diplomacy doesnt know what it wants. One day they accuse Pakistan of supporting terror. Next day PM lands in Lahore to wish Happy Bday to Badmash.
First, we need to clear our own head.


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