Indian Foreign Policy

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Bart S
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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby Bart S » 13 May 2018 19:54

Parasu wrote:He is another one, cut from the same cloth, of which we already have an overflowing stack who recommend India must do no less than be pally with Russia


+1 million.

These people have an ideology driven objective (not necessarily Indian interests) in mind and fill in/cherry pick 'facts' and assertions to suit their narrative. The very opposite of what anybody with any pretence of being a strategic thinker should be doing.

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby Parasu » 13 May 2018 23:53

Neshant wrote:US is putting the moves on Iran which is a dangerous thing for connectivity between India, Russia and the -stan countries in between.

The dangerous thing for connectivity between India, Russia and the stans is dependence on Iran for it. If India cant take back what rightfully belongs to it, then no Iran/Pakistan/Afghanistan can help it.
US must topple jihad loving mullahcracy of Iran. Chabahar project then can be used to supply US troops in Afghanistan circumventing the uber jihadi state of Pakistan.
With US dependence on Pakistan over, there will be no IMF funds for cockroaches.
Lets see how long Chipanda will continue to feed and clothe the 250 million plus bhikhaaris of Porkistan.

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby Neshant » 14 May 2018 00:52

Parasu wrote:
Neshant wrote:US is putting the moves on Iran which is a dangerous thing for connectivity between India, Russia and the -stan countries in between.

The dangerous thing for connectivity between India, Russia and the stans is dependence on Iran for it.


If US were to install a regime of it's choice in Iran, they would not allow ANY connectivity between India and Russia through Iran.

Do you really think US would end financing of Pakistan just because it has an alternate route to Afg.

They have been bank rolling Pakistan well before 911 came along for obvious reasons.

US could sooner execute a regime change in Pakistan than Iran if it wanted.

Mullah thocracy of Iran, crazy as the mullahs may be, has never harmed India.



All major foreign powers gate-crashing the neighborhood can only mean bad news for India regardless of what they claim their intentions are. It will be so now as it has been for all of history.

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby g.sarkar » 14 May 2018 02:58

https://thewire.in/diplomacy/on-iran-an ... hard-place
On Iran and Trump, India Has Landed Between a Rock and a Hard Place
If India aspires to be a 'leading power', it may soon have to choose between its strategically autonomous goals, and those which the Trump administration has in mind for the region.
For some years now, India has liked to think of itself as a “leading power” rather than simply a “balancing power”. But if the Modi government’s response to Donald Trump reneging on the Iran nuclear deal is anything to go by, India may find itself being classed among the craven powers.
It is not surprising that in the run-up to the decision, Trump met French president Emmanuel Macron and German chancellor Angela Merkel on the issue and spoke to British prime minister Theresa May. He didn’t speak to Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin because China and Russia’s stands are well known. But he did not bother to consult Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the leader of a country which is a close ally of the US and stands to lose a great deal from the decision. This is because Trump knew he could take India for granted; after all, the Modi government’s weak-kneed approach was evident when it avoided substantial comment on the US shifting its embassy to Jerusalem.
India’s official statement on Trump’s Iran decision began with the non sequitur that Iran’s right to peaceful uses of nuclear energy should be respected, that the issue should be resolved through dialogue and diplomacy. “All parties should engage constructively to address and resolve issues that have arisen with respect to the JCPOA,” the MEA said, using the acronym for nuclear agreement’s formal name, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. There was, unlike the Chinese statement, no expression of regret that an international agreement which had the mandate of a UN Security Council resolution and whose termination has profound implications for the stability of a region which is, arguably, the most important external region for India, had been terminated so wantonly.
The issue is not about Iran’s right to the peaceful uses of atomic energy, but about ensuring that it does not develop nuclear weapons. The JCPOA is not some treaty that is under negotiation, but as the Russian statement pointed out, it is “a key multilateral agreement approved by the 2015 UN Security Council Resolution 2231.” In other words, it has the force of international law. The US which frequently swears by the “rule of law” now says it is “withdrawing”, not “violating” the JCPOA because it goes against its strategic interests. Mind you, this is a treaty in which the then Obama Administration was the lead negotiator. National security adviser John Bolton declared, on May 8, that “any nation reserves the right to correct a past mistake.” To this end he cited the Bush administration’s withdrawal from the 1972 ABM Treaty, which he said the Americans abandoned not because the Russians were violating it, “but because the global strategic environment had changed.” The Trump administration earlier withdrew from the Paris climate accord, presumably because it does not serve its strategic interests.
This, of course, is a catch-all which can justify China trashing the arbitration award on the South China Sea under UNCLOS in 2016, or any future Indian decision to scrap the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960, or for the Iranians to simply walk out of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty as the North Koreans did in 2003.
....
Gautam

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby Parasu » 14 May 2018 03:10

Neshant wrote:
Parasu wrote:The dangerous thing for connectivity between India, Russia and the stans is dependence on Iran for it.



If US were to install a regime of it's choice in Iran, they would not allow ANY connectivity between India and Russia through Iran.

Russia has an economy half of India. Trade is minimal. Indian interest is in Afghanistan. Rest is hot air.
Do you really think US would end financing of Pakistan just because it has an alternate route to Afg.

Yes.
They have been bank rolling Pakistan well before 911 came along for obvious reasons.

They funded Pakistan to counter USSR. After that they reduced funding. Increased it again when they needed access to Afghanistan.
US could sooner execute a regime change in Pakistan than Iran if it wanted.

No, it cannot. Besides, Pakistan didnt have an islamic revolution and held Americans hostage. It doesnt threaten US ally Israel either. It already has nukes. Too many reasons to seek regime change in Iran and not Pakistan
Mullah thocracy of Iran, crazy as the mullahs may be, has never harmed India.

Neither has ISIS. Or Boko Haram. Or Al-Shabab.
I wonder who bombed the Israel embassy fellows car in New Delhi!!!
All major foreign powers gate-crashing the neighborhood can only mean bad news for India regardless of what they claim their intentions are. It will be so now as it has been for all of history.

Is it time to dhoti shiver?
Besides that sounded like "A stable and prosperous Pakistan is in India`s interest".
Parroting some line without any supporting argument.

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby Neshant » 14 May 2018 03:41

Parasu wrote:Russia has an economy half of India. Trade is minimal.


Clue in.
This is a link to the vast resources and markets of Central Asia, Russia, the Balkans, Eastern and Western Europe.
US strategy has always been to control all major trade routes present and future.
The future of the automobile, aviation, consumer goods and consumption in general is in Asia for the 21st century. All of which depend on the flow of vast resources from the hinterlands of the Asian and Eurasian continent towards South and East Asia.
All of which the US needs to control in some manner to maintain it's dominance.

Parasu wrote:
Do you really think US would end financing of Pakistan just because it has an alternate route to Afg.

Yes.


US desires no peer competitor. It has been bank rolling Pakistan to the tune of tens of billions well after the Cold war ended and claiming no evidence the country exports terrorism even with hundreds of thousands of Indian refugees being driven from their homes by the largest terrorist operation in the region. It's their means of maintaining a balance of power against India.

How long have you been on this board ?

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby Parasu » 14 May 2018 17:21

https://www.ft.com/content/8fc1b404-56c ... tlhomepage

Trump has ordered a U-turn over Chinese company ZTE after meeting with Xi.
Anyone remembers how he had mocked Modi after Indian government repeatedly reduced import duty on American motorcycles.
No wonder Modi wanted to meet Xi in Wuhan.
I hope, there was a serious long-term strategic dialogue in Wuhan. Americans are mostly arrogant low-IQ idiots.

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby Parasu » 14 May 2018 17:30

And now, Modi is visiting Putin for an informal summit in Sochi on May 21.
Good job by Trump to push India to re-energise ties with other powers.

https://in.reuters.com/article/russia-i ... NKCN1IF1GU

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby vinod » 14 May 2018 20:27

The cold-war 2 is now very much a reality. The battle lines are being drawn. It remains to be seen who is on which side of the line and who are all sitting on the line!!

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby Trikaal » 14 May 2018 20:51

Trump is essentially bullying India into following him. He doesn't care about Indian investment in Iran, India's trade and relations with Iran, or for India's strategic affairs. He wants India to trash the relationship that we have carefully cultivated over the past 2 decades at the drop of his hat.

India might want to show the middle finger to US but the question is, can we? Trump could very well deny India access to dollars as well, something that is needed for global trade. Europe is making noise but when Trump shows them the gun, they will all fall in line. We might find ourselves in a corner with countries like China, Russia and, believe it or not, Pakistan. In such a scenario, what should India choose? Drink the Trump Poison or bed with the enemies? I am honestly confused right now.

Personally, I think that with elections within a year, Modi might choose to follow America. Politically, an international level confrontation right now could prove very costly, especially if it drives up costs for public.

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby Rudradev » 15 May 2018 03:44

We will choose nothing, IMO. We will play both sides as quietly as we can, committing transactionally sometimes, but never strategically.

We will keep our cards close to our chest and our feet firmly on the line. We will make statements that people like Bharat Karnad and Brahma Chellaney will decry as "craven", "mealy-mouthed" etc. (though in fact, the only thing these worthy gents are "decrying" is that nobody of any consequence cares what they think :mrgreen:)

I always believed Trump would be bad news for India, now we're seeing him prove it. The only silver lining is that with all the turmoil going on in many parts of the world with epicenter in US foreign policy, as well as domestic divisions within the US establishment, there may be less attention and funds devoted to directly destabilizing India.

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby Trikaal » 15 May 2018 08:40

Rudradev wrote:We will choose nothing, IMO. We will play both sides as quietly as we can, committing transactionally sometimes, but never strategically.

Doing nothing implicitly means following Trump. He wants us to do nothing with Iran. In the face of dollar embargo, if India scale back investment or trade with Iran, that essentially means doing exactly what Trump wants.

In terms of statements, you are right. India will make all the right noises depending on who Modi is sharing a stage with.

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby wig » 15 May 2018 08:54

http://www.tribuneindia.com/news/commen ... 88672.html
the author of the write up participated in the Track 2 talks with Pak
A view from Islamabad
Following India’s revival of the Track-II Neemrana Dialogue diplomacy with Pakistan, a delegation, including the author, went to Islamabad recently. However, the author feels there is no change of thought at the negotiating table.


the participants seem to be clear that the Pak delegation are in denial
There could be no resolution unless Kashmir is resolved was their constant refrain. References were made to 1947, United Nations Resolution on Self-determination, Kashmir and the Samjhauta Express. Buhran Wani was considered as a freedom fighter and frequent display of Pakistan flags in Kashmir is only a depiction of local public sentiments towards azadi, they said.
Strangely, what was evident between the two countries is that while Pakistan speaks with conviction on Kashmir, Baluchistan and Afghanistan, we are confused on Kashmir. For instance, we shall not talk on Kashmir, but are prepared to discuss it as a part of composite dialogue. No one speaks on their side of Kashmir kept as Azad Kashmir with a separate Premier and the President besides northern areas.
We were told to be magnanimous on the water issue being upper riparian and show humility as a bigger country in South Asia. On the nuclear front, Pakistan was suggested to bring a greater degree of security while ensuring that such weapons would not be used. Keeping in view the crow flying distance, it was proposed to have a robust communication level to even thwart accidental use of nukes.
Of all the issues, climate change was the most innocuous and could easily ward off the heat, as and when temperature on more vexed matters would blow up. Strangely, on Afghanistan, when Pakistan was asked to clear the position on 'strategic depth', they sprung a surprise as if they had heard the term for the first time.
China is seen as an embodiment of their politico-military strength. No criticism against China was accepted whereas the US was accused of being responsible for the current political turmoil in Pakistan. Incidentally, the US has not withdrawn its Non-NATO ally status to Pakistan.
Ishrat Hussain termed the CPEC as a golden opportunity for Pakistan with risks attached. Dispelling the debt scenario as is generally perceived, he said the CPEC has contributed an additional 10,000 MW to the generation capacity in Pakistan, overcoming its chronic energy shortage. Besides, it would lead to the constructing of highways and railways, making accessible even the backward districts of Baluchistan, running into short-, medium- and long-term projects. Further, out of the total commitment of $50 billion by China, 70 per cent would come as FDI, thereby signaling to other countries that Pakistan is an attractive place to invest.
Talks also touched upon creating a SEZ along the border where many Pakistani businessmen are interested in buying land to trade with India. On normalisation and people-to-people contact, the Pakistani delegation was told to stop skirmishes on the frontiers, including interference in Kashmir, to which there was complete denial. Instead, they accused us of killing 2,000 Pakistani soldiers and civilians.

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby JE Menon » 15 May 2018 22:19

Rudradev wrote:We will choose nothing, IMO. We will play both sides as quietly as we can, committing transactionally sometimes, but never strategically.

...


+101 AoA

To the whole post.

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby SSridhar » 22 May 2018 12:47

To continue the discussion,

India does not believe in 'Me First' approach: Sushma Swaraj - PTI
External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj today warned that the world was reeling under a storm of protectionism and said India did not agree with American President Donald Trump's "Me First" approach on the issue.

India, she stressed, believed in the concept of 'We, Us and Ourselves'.

"I was sad when President Trump, in the UN General Assembly, said his slogan was Me First," the external affairs minister said.

She was referring to Trump's speech at the United Nations in September last year when he had said, "As President of the United States, I will always put America first, just like you, as the leaders of your countries will always, and should always, put your countries first."

"There is a storm of protectionism at the global level which is centred around the concept of Me and Myself but India believes in the concept of We, Us and Ourselves. If everyone views the other as equal then there is no place for protectionism in it," she said.

Swaraj was delivering the first Pandit Deen Dayal Upadhyay Memorial International lecture on 'Soft Power Diplomacy: Strength of India', organised by the ICCR.

After Trump's speech, Swaraj said she had a meeting with ministers of Latin American and Caribbean States.

"A foreign minister of a small country spoke about President Trump's speech of Me First. She said if everyone says (and follows the policy) of Me First then how will my country sustain."

Swaraj said she pointed out that India had a different approach.

"I said India does not have the tradition of (following the policy of) Me First. I said my speech will have (the concept of) Om Sarve Bhavantu Sukhinah," she said, quoting a sloka from the Vedas that translates into "May everyone be happy".

"When everyone is happy then everyone will have the provision of food and security," she said.

The minister said India believed in the policy of assisting other countries, especially those who required a helping hand.

"If we don't do this then developed countries will continue to grow and under-developed countries will remain under-developed. So how will economic disparity reduce," she asked.


Sushma Swaraj said Indian culture, yoga, classical dance, movies, cuisine and Information Technology were a "treasure of soft power".

Narrating anecdotes about the craze for Indian films abroad, the external affairs minister said the passion was not restricted to Hindi cinema but extended to regional language films such as 'Bahubali'.

"Chinese President Xi Jinping wanted 'Dangal' to be screened at the BRICS Summit at Xiamen. The Indian ambassador in Mongolia wanted the movie dubbed in Mongolian as wrestling is the national sport of that country. When I met Prime Minister Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh of Mongolia , he said he wanted to be an actor in Bollywood. To this, I quipped we need handsome leaders in politics too," she said.

Swaraj said during bilateral meetings, foreign delegations proposed that the Bollywood industry shoot in their countries as it boosted tourism.

She also shared an anecdote on how leaders in the recently held India-ASEAN Commemorative Summit came up with a demand for a song from the Shah Rukh Khan-starrer 'Kuch Kuch Hota Hai' and for 'Bol Radha Bol Sangam' from the 1964 Raj Kapoor- starrer 'Sangam'.

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby Philip » 22 May 2018 17:36

Trump is undoing a decade of progress between the US and India that took off with the regime of Snake-Oil Singh and the N-deal and payment for it by buying copious amounts of US arms.

The slightest likelihood of sanctions against India will destroy whatever mil. cooperation has been achieved.All our recent arms purchases/ weapon systems will be affected, and it may also endanger purchases of civilian aircraft dumping Boeing for Airbus and even perhaps buying/building in a JV Russia's new narrow bodied aircraft in the 737 class.

Unless there is a blanket exemption for India, Indo- US relations will take a definite hit- forget about US birds for the MRCA tender, and the relationship will hit the rewind button.

It is sad that a growing positive relationship with the US, necessary in a multi-polar world is being endangered by Trump, his "Dolt" and a pompous Pompeo.

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby Philip » 22 May 2018 23:10

Allegations by the Catholic archbishop alleging Christians are being attacked becos of the Modi regime are now being echoed by his boss in the Vatican.

While there have been some incidents in certain areas, to insinuate that there is a conspiracy by the govt. at the centre is a load of crap.Allegations of democracy being destroyed, etc.This is direct interference by the Vatican city state in India's internal affairs and the Papal nuncio must be summoned for an explanation and given his boarding card for Rome if there is no apology coming from St.Peter's.
I
TV channel on right now.The news item from a publication called " Vatican News", is not from the Vatican at all says a Catholic bishop.He says that the official Vatican mouthpiece is another media entity.The bishop says that they have " no grudge against the PM or the govt. " whom they have met several times. and are happy with the PM.He is saying that he is a "co-worker" of the PM.
Blames fringe elements for incidents and says with the PM's help these elements are being kept at bay.

The debate continues.While the bishop (Mascarehnas) continues to say that he and the Catholic church support the PM, etc., the archbishop's opposite and controversial statements (the basis for the media entity in Rome agreeing with him), deserves clarification from the archbishop himself as to the accuracy of the facts stated by him or a statement from the Vatican whether they agree with him or not.

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby g.sarkar » 23 May 2018 03:11

https://www.firstpost.com/world/donald- ... 76073.html
Donald Trump's sanctions on Iran could hurt India-Afghanistan trade, threaten vital Chabahar project
Washington/Kabul: US president Donald Trump's decision to pull out of the Iran nuclear accord and re-impose sanctions on Tehran threatens to derail a project to help build Afghanistan’s economy, endangering a key goal of the US strategy to end America's longest war.
The Indian-backed Chabahar port complex in Iran is being developed as part of a new transportation corridor for land-locked Afghanistan that could potentially open the way for millions of dollars in trade and cut its dependence on Pakistan, its sometimes-hostile neighbour.
Building Afghanistan's economy would also slash Kabul's dependence on foreign aid and put a major dent in the illicit opium trade, the Taliban’s main revenue source.But Trump’s decision to re-impose sanctions on Iran and penalise financial institutions for doing business with Tehran is clouding Chabahar’s viability as banks, nervous they could be hit with crippling penalties, pull back from financing.
“President Trump’s decision has brought us back to the drawing board and we will have to renegotiate terms and conditions on using Chabahar,” a senior Indian diplomat said. “It is a route that can change the way India-Iran-Afghanistan do business, but for now everything is in a state of uncertainty.”
....
The economic piece is really important to get a glimmer of hope for Afghanistan to move beyond a land-locked, poppy-based economy. We are now shooting that in the head," said Thomas Lynch, a National Defense University expert and a former US Army officer who advised the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff on South Asia policy. “There is no other legitimate and reliable way to do that. You can’t do it by air, you can’t do it through Pakistan because they just extort for everything they do,” said Lynch. “The lifeline runs through Chabahar.”
In addition, by hindering the development of Chabahar, the United States will leave Afghanistan dependent on Pakistan, historically its main trade partner and outlet to the world. That would undermine another Trump goal of pressuring Islamabad to shutter Afghan insurgent sanctuaries on its side of the border and force the militants into peace talks.
....
Gautam

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby Parasu » 23 May 2018 11:57

^^
India has achieved 80% of its objectives in Afghanistan. Chabahar is not important for rest of it.
Afghanistan cannot be stabilised.
TFR of Afghanistan is above 5. No amount of foreign investment or trade can support such demographics. So fighting in the region will continue. US will withdraw or be locked down in its bases. India has generated sufficient goodwill to last a generation.
To fulfill rest of its objectives, India needs to smartly play the ethnicities/division cards in Afghanistan.

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby SSridhar » 25 May 2018 08:27

Modi to visit Indonesia, Singapore - The Hindu
In a boost to India’s Act East policy, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will pay a visit to Indonesia and Singapore between May 29 and June 2. The External Affairs Ministry on Thursday announced that during the tour the Prime Minister was expected to focus on agreements in defence, skill development and connectivity.

“As far as defence cooperation with Indonesia is concerned, there is interest on maritime domain awareness and Navy-to-Navy cooperation is an important element (in this). We are also talking in terms of the renewal of the defence cooperation agreement,” said Priti Saran, Secretary in-charge of the eastern hemisphere in the Ministry.

The official said that defence interaction between India and Indonesia had intensified in recent years. “There are some agreements that are under discussion in the areas of defence, space and science and technology which are still being negotiated,” Ms. Saran said.

She confirmed that India was in talks to upgrade ports and airports of Indonesia. The maritime affairs minister of the country had informed that India would soon be getting access to the strategic port of Sabang on the Strait of Malacca.

She said a kite-flying festival featuring tales from the Ramayana and the Mahabharata would be the cultural highlights during the visit of the Prime Minister.

The second part of the tour will include a visit to Singapore. “Prime Minister Modi will deliver the keynote address at the Shangri La Dialogue on June 1. The dialogue is a platform to articulate regional security issues and our Prime Minister will convey India’s view on peace and security in the region,” Ms. Saran said.

Ms. Saran said the Shangri La Dialogue would be attended by several other international leaders but declined to confirm if Mr. Modi would be holding any bilateral meeting with counterparts from other countries.

I am glad that at last our PM is attending the Shangri La dialogue. We have been sending lower level delegation, many a time not even our defence minister, to this meet and it has been a sore point between us & Singapore as well.

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby Manish_P » 25 May 2018 11:01

Philip wrote:Allegations by the Catholic archbishop alleging Christians are being attacked becos of the Modi regime are now being echoed by his boss in the Vatican.

While there have been some incidents in certain areas, to insinuate that there is a conspiracy by the govt. at the centre is a load of crap......


What incidents are these ?

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Re: Indian Foreign Policy

Postby Philip » 26 May 2018 18:47

A few small churches in the north were attacked, some time ago.Was in the media.But no major incidents as is being insinuated by the cleric.In fact the Christian vote is increasing for the BJP as seen in Karnatake-40%+, which has probably alarmed the Vatican.


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