Afghanistan News & Discussion

sivab · Post by **sivab** » 22 Oct 2014 21:08

Ajit Doval was in Kabul today

sivab · Post by **sivab** » 22 Oct 2014 21:10

http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 962_1.html

Doval visits Kabul, reaffirms India's commitment to assistance

National Security Advisor Ajit Doval today called on Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and CEO Abdullah Abdullah here and reaffirmed India's commitment to assist Afghanistan in building a strong, democratic and prosperous country.

Doval, who is on a visit here to follow up on the discussions that President Ghani and CEO Abdullah had with Prime Minister Narendra Modi earlier this month over telephone, also met his counterpart Hanif Atmar and held talks on a host of bilateral and regional issues.

"NSA conveyed Prime Minister of India's felicitations to both Afghan leaders and to the people of Afghanistan for the country's historic democratic political transition in Afghanistan and the formation of a Government of National Unity at this critical juncture of the country," the Indian Embassy here said in a statement.

"He (Doval) reiterated India's commitment to assist Afghanistan build a strong, democratic and prosperous country," it said.

Doval was accompanied by a high-level delegation comprising the Deputy National Security Advisor and senior officials from the Prime Minister's Office and Ministry of External Affairs.

National Security Advisor also paid a courtesy call on former Afghan President Hamid Karzai to personally convey Prime Minister Modi's best wishes and admiration for having led the country with which India has a "special and deep relationship" through its first ever democratic transition.

Ghani, a one-time US-based academic, was sworn in as the new president of Afghanistan last month while Abdullah was named as the "chief executive", a new role similar to a prime minister.

This was done as part of a power-sharing deal that broke a political deadlock between the two political rivals.

Both had claimed to have won the election, plunging Afghanistan into months of crisis that fuelled the insurgency and worsened the country's dire economic outlook.

Early in September, External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj had made a day-long visit to Afghanistan and assured that "India is here to stay.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 24 Oct 2014 16:51

China-Afghanistan:
http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/201 ... 4208412181&

Beijing will attempt to reduce the security threat in two main ways.

1. Stabilise Afghanistan, or prevent further deterioration in the Afghan security environment.
If 1. fails, limit the spread of new instability regionally and reduce the direct threat to Xinjiang.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 24 Oct 2014 16:53

More China-Afghanistan:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ar ... 6513000286

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 24 Oct 2014 17:23

China was one of the five key players in the 1979-1989 Afghan jihad and had developed contacts with the mujahideen, many of whom are still active, under different avtars.

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 24 Oct 2014 17:24

First of its kind, a very good and relevant debate between Afghanistan, Pakistan and India, on 'Terrorism as a Foreign Policy Tool'.
Panelists involved were Dr. Subramanian Swamy (BJP Leader, India), Mr. Amrullah Saleh (Former Afghan Intelligence Chief, Afghanistan) and Mr Deputy Chief Air Marshal - R Shahid Latif (Former Air Chief Marshal, Pakistan)

akashganga · Post by **akashganga** » 25 Oct 2014 06:56

Atri wrote:

First of its kind, a very good and relevant debate between Afghanistan, Pakistan and India, on 'Terrorism as a Foreign Policy Tool'.
Panelists involved were Dr. Subramanian Swamy (BJP Leader, India), Mr. Amrullah Saleh (Former Afghan Intelligence Chief, Afghanistan) and Mr Deputy Chief Air Marshal - R Shahid Latif (Former Air Chief Marshal, Pakistan)

Interesting to see the two afghan representatives playing hard ball against pakis. The afghans even used baluchisthan separatism to hit pakistan. From the Indian side Dr. Subramaniam Swamy effectively countered and attacked pakistani position. The other indian Mani Shankar Iyer was talking nonsense. He was apologetic, said terrorism has nothing to with islam, was equating india with pakistan, and even showed disrespect to Dr. Swamy. Such people of Desh Drohies. Only in congress of Sonia such morons find place. Congress of Mahatma Gandhi, and Patel would have never allowed such Morons inside the party.

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 31 Oct 2014 13:41

Why Kabul kicked the Indian butt
http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2 ... dian-butt/

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 31 Oct 2014 13:54

Sooraj-. Please post the Author's name so that people can judge the quality of the article.

svenkat · Post by **svenkat** » 31 Oct 2014 14:11

Bhadras article

Iss extremely important that the real meaning is understood in Delhi within the government and by our wooly-headed pundits as to why Kabul has conveyed its decision that it is no more seeking military supplies from India. Kabul is sticking to its decision despite a last-minute mission by National Security Advisor Ajit Doval.

The blame game has begun. The Indian security establishment apparently attributes the Afghan decision to the delay in the Indian supplies. But this is like passing the buck. The heart of the matter is that the Indian agencies that were in the driving seat in crafting our Afghan policies in the recent years have made a mess of things and would now do what comes naturally to them when they botch up things — obfuscate the comprehensive policy failure.
What has happened was waiting to happen. Anyone who lent ear to the Kabul bazaar would agree. A perception grew steadily over the past one-year period in Kabul (and in the region) that Abdullah Abdullah, who was a key interlocutor for Delhi from the Northern Alliance era in the late 1990s, would be India’s favorite in the Afghan presidential election in April and the runoff in June.
Alas, the Indian pundits and some of our media persons also reinforced this perception by visiting Kabul and enjoying Abdullah’s lavish hospitality and thereupon voicing back home in india their backing for his candidacy.
Of course, many Afghans believe — rightly or wrongly — that Indian agencies also bankrolled Abdullah’s election campaign. The sad truth is that perceptions matter in politics and the bazaar is an integral part of the Kabul political circuit.
There is every possibility that Abdullah’s main opponent (and present president) Ashraf Ghani also would have had such perceptions regarding India’s alleged partisan role in the Afghan election. To compound matters, Ghani himself has never visited India.
But there is much more to this bazaar gossip regarding the alleged magical spell that Abdullah cast on Delhi. For, It is also mixed up with geopolitics.
Given Abdullah’s background as a “Panjshiri” and his role in the anti-Taliban resistance, the surmise was that Delhi probably took his “anti-Pakistani” credentials for granted. Whereas, Afghan political culture has transformed phenomenally since the Americans appeared in the Hindu Kush in 2001 and any serious politician such as Abdullah would have begun to cast the net wide. Suffice to say, Abdullah is no more in the dog house in Islamabad or Rawalpindi. This is one thing.
Again, the very first political decision taken by Ghani after assuming office as president was to reopen the sensational Kabul Bank fraud case, which his predecessor Hamid Karzai had hushed up much to the annoyance of the US. What does that mean?
The beauty about the Kabul Bank scandal is that it is a can of worms that implicates a large number of big daddies in the ancien regime. Ghani, in short, is in a position today to make an offer to many of his political opponents that they will find it difficult to refuse. He’s got them by the jugular veins.
Arguably, this is going to be a major factor why there isn’t going to be an intractable opposition anymore to Ghani’s government, and why the stabilization program in Afghanistan may stand a fairly high chance of success as things are today.
Indeed, the spectre of a civil war breaking out in Afghanistan has receded and no one talks about it anymore. Put differently, those regional powers, who were inebriated by the great game in Afghanistan and were rolling up the sleeves for the post-2014 scenario following the withdrawal of the US troops, have been put out of business.
It is quite palpable that a pall of gloom has descended on many Indian pundits who were raring to go in the Hindu Kush mountains.
By the way, make no mistake, despite the troop withdrawal, there will be a big American military presence in Afghanistan. The regular troops, special forces, auxiliary units, and the “contractors” (who are largely ex-servicemen) put together, the total strength of US presence is in the region of around 30-35000 personnel located in nine big military bases spread all over the country. And they will be having the support of airpower, including drones.
However, there is still more to it. Ghani enjoys robust American backing and there is no daylight between him and President Barack Obama. Equally, Ghani is an “old friend” of China, as Chinese president Xi Jinping put it. That Ghani is acutely conscious of the importance of striking a deal with the Taliban is no secret, either.
In sum, Ghani hopes to work closely with Pakistan in the crucial weeks and months ahead. He has, therefore, begun doing the right things to clear the air of distrust in Afghan-Pakistani relations.
On its part, Pakistan too is bending over backward to convince Ghani that it will help him reach a deal with the Taliban, provided he remains sensitive to Pakistan’s legitimate interests.
The Pakistani president and security and foreign policy advisor have visited Kabul in the recent weeks to meet Ghani. A visit by the Pakistani army chief is on cards.
The US visualizes that if the security situation improves, China will make big investments in Afghanistan including in the sectors related to Beijing’s Silk Road strategy. Unsurprisingly, Washington is encouraging Beijing to play a “proactive” role in the reconciliation in Afghanistan involving Pakistan and the Taliban. And the indications are that Beijing is switching to a “proactive” role.
What we in India need to factor in is that Washington and Beijing have a shared interest in regional security and stability and they, therefore, support the Afghan-Pakistani detente.
In all of this, the unwavering bottom line for Pakistan will be three-fold, namely, Iron-clad assurances that: a) the Afghan intelligence will not lend itself to be an instrument for Indian agencies to settle scores with Pakistan’s ISI; b) Afghan soil will not be used for staging terrorist acts in Pakistan; and, c) whittling down the Indian presence in Afghanistan to an appropriate scale from its excessive level, especially on Pakistani border regions.
Alas, the UPA government lost precious time by not engaging Pakistan in a sustained dialogue leading to a modicum of understanding regarding the Afghan situation. If anything, the Narendra Modi government has resorted to a policy of inflicting “pain” on Pakistan.
Taking into consideration the interplay of all these factors in regional politics, it can be assumed that Ghani is moving in the direction of addressing Pakistan’s core concerns and vital interests. Kabul will consider it prudent to mark a distance from the rabble rousers in Delhi.
The demarche withdrawing the request for arms supplies is probably the first move. Delhi should expect that there will be other moves by Kabul too in the coming weeks and months such as some sort of delimiting of the Indian activities in Afghanistan in places such as Kandahar or Jalalabad close to the Pakistani border where we we have consulates, which Islamabad views with suspicion.
The big question here is how Indian policies reached this cul-de-sac. To my mind, the blame squarely falls on the Indian agencies who played the great game in Afghanistan.
The great game has its invidious charms, no doubt, but it is also a treacherous game where it can prove a fatal mistake not to have sensed at a very early stage itself the incipient signs of the ground beneath the feet trembling, presaging shift.
Plainly put, India has come a cropper by misreading the flow of events in Afghanistan leading to the ascendance of the Ghani presidency.
Now, a subsidiary question can be asked as to why an intelligence failure of this magnitude happened. The answer is rather simple: Afghans are often an underestimated lot.
Foreigners overlook that Afghans have an uncanny knack for role reversal — incrementally getting their mentors do things as they want. Then, of course, what happens in such cases is that vested interests develop.
When you begin to see only those things you want to see and hear only those things you want to hear and reject whatever or whoever doesn’t fit in, a nadir is reached in no time.
In retrospect, Delhi should have anticipated that at some point or the other, as the year 2014 draws to a close, an effort will begin for reconciling the Taliban. In other words, the US’s calculus in putting Ghani in power in Kabul should have been understood — and, equally, therefore, the sheer hopelessness of Abdullah’s candidacy.
The growing US-China proximity over the stabilization of Afghanistan could have been easily anticipated. Most important, the bitter truth is that India overlooked the irrationality of its willingness to get locked in a great game in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s role is central and irreplaceable in an Afghan settlement. Period.
Hopefully, Delhi will now at least be on a learning curve in the period ahead and concede that Pakistan has legitimate interests in Afghanistan (which are no less than India’s core interests in Nepal or Bhutan), and realize that there is total awareness on the part of the US and China that an enduring settlement in Kabul needs to be riveted on Pakistan’s whole-hearted cooperation.

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 31 Oct 2014 16:16

^^ Contrary to the inference drawn by the Author, IMHO Indian decision making should be applauded for not giving arms to a regime that wants to find common ground with the Taliban.
Taliban is not going to share power with Ghani, no matter how much he tries to prostrate before them. Their one and most important demand was to see the back of all foreign forces. That has not happened.
Ghani would have tried to get close to the Uniformed Jihadis in Pakistan even if he had gotten Indian arms. So giving arms to him would have been a waste anyway.
Besides when the big Gorilla is already there to provide for whatever is needed by Ghani, why for does India need to provide anything. If Ghani thinks that the Taliban can be defeated and then negotiated with, he perhaps should read about Najibullah and a little history.

member_28714 · Post by **member_28714** » 31 Oct 2014 17:31

We can forget about co-opting with Afghanistan until we somehow install Amrulla Saleh as their president. RAA has to put a billet in AG's head sooner or later. Else Cheen will isolate afg from india and nex t iran as well. the russo-chini super alliance will be complete with all these littoral slave states. thus ensuring india's regional status remains.

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 31 Oct 2014 21:47

Russia-China alliance is highly over-rated. It makes sense for Asian countries to cooperate on economics but there is no way such old peoples can ever think of becoming a lesser partner to somebody else. There is too much civilizational pride in the room. Mostly justified.

Besides the Russians want help with a market, for their oil but at the same time are arming Vietnam and India. Chinese want to push India to the sidelines but cannot do that. Iran has kept its own Taquiya level Persian &/or Shia identity even when they had lost a million men. So they are not exactly lying in wait for the chinese either. Less said about the Indian sense of independence the better. Moreover, exactly how much of a cooperation has china received from the Russians on the Afg issue. Why would the Russians help china in a takeover of Afghanistan. Russians are more than happy to have the Afg in Umrikhan hands. Russians have challenged effectively the westerners wherever they thought they had red lines (Chechnya, Georgia, Ukr). They never did that for Afghanistan. Russians even went to the extent of allowing reinforcement and supplies through their territory. At one point the Russians were claiming (don't know if its right) that about 30000 Russians were dying every year on account of Narcotics originating in the Afpak region. They know there is no power on earth that can ever check that except the Russian capacity for covert action and overt Amerikhan occupation. Their first option was dead for last 20 years and they got the second option given to them. They took it. With the Chinese in, the Russians will absolutely never be able to control the narcotics smuggling. India OTOH has started gathering some money and soon Iranians would be supplying oil through the Charbahar route paid for through non-US controlled mechanisms.

This super alliance thing is only to bamboozle the Asian countries to accede to the Amerikhan demand for an anti china alliance. Reality is they are afraid of holding ground against china. Amerikhans think they are super smart and all Asians are sell outs. Long years sharing bed with Pakis did that to them. So they should be able to fix china using India like they fixed Russia using china. What they fail to realize is that even Indians do not need the amerikhans to defend itself against china. Moreover on a large number of issues India actually has the same requirements as the chinese (climate negotiations for example) where even the chinese need the Indian support. Reality is Amerikhans saale fattu hain and don't have the bile for a long term fight.

Reality also is the economic size of India even in PPP terms is so large that there is perfect economic rationale for all of the world to integrate into it. How can you not have a cue into a PPP economic activity of 6 trillion usd (even if it is merely 2 tril in nominals). Not getting/remaining cued in would amount to a major foreign policy and strategic failure. That too when it carries such a huge HR content. There simply is no way to keep India down for long. A large number of people thinking and acting in concert like India cannot ever be ignored. For comparison china was exactly as poor as India before 1978 (dime to dime matching) and the Amerikhans had an even bigger economic and technology gap in their favor. They still could not ignore china. The same goes much more starkly for India today. The only thing that they need but cannot now have is that Indians are not available to finance and man their wars across the world.

Despite all that India has tried to give a fair deal but you can always bet on an Amerikhan to display their typical and utter greed. Actually their greed will always enable enough of the Indians to coalesce and walk away.

As for Amrullah Saleh and Abdullah Abdullah we also have to accede that Amerikhans own the ass of every single expat Afghan (whatever tribe/ethnicity) having invested a terrible amount of money in retaining Afghanistan. If only to keep china from cooperating with the oil rich regions (Yes, china remaining out of oil rich regions is much more an Amerikhan headache than an Indian one). Amrullah Saleh was amongst the first people the CIA contacted when the CIA decided that they have to go into Afghanistan and expel Taliban. Salleh himself was CIA trained in Pakistan when CIA and Pakis were on the same side. Having kept Taliban out for so long I guess I cannot hold that against the amerikhans. And don't worry about Ghani he will also not be able to manage a tight rope walk between so many interest groups. It is amerikha ki kismet and ghani ki kismet. Our job should be to not let Afghanistan become a Paki sidekick by making sure that the non-pashtoons can retain their independence and going hardline on Pakis. I doubt if Amerikhans would not like us cooperating with the non-pashtoons. Salleh can help India and India can help Salleh but even Salleh wants to remain forever dependent on amerikhans. People in these regions have long forgotten that there is a kind of existence that is called a Nation. For them a Nation means their tribal/ethnic identities. To expect such a region to fall into chinese laps is too much to ask for. Nation building will take a long long time in Afghanistan.

sivab · Post by **sivab** » 31 Oct 2014 22:40

National bird of pakistan kills ISI stooges...

http://www.tolonews.com/en/afghanistan/ ... n-pakistan

Haqqani Leader Killed in US Drone Airstrike in Pakistan

Abdullah, a top Haqqani leader who was involved in the transfer of suicide bombers in Afghanistan, and six other insurgents were killed in a U.S. drone airstrike in a tribal area of Pakistan, according to the Pakistani Intelligence officials.

Pakistani officials said the attack took place early Thursday in a village known as Nargas of the Birmil area, west of Wana, the main town of South Waziristan near the Afghan border.

The death of Abdullah is a blow for the Haqqani network, according to Afghan political analysts.

"This is a major loss for the Haqqani network," Ahmad Saeedi, a political analyst said. "Their attacks on Afghanistan will decrease, but the main mastermind is the ISI; if they were not here the war would have ended."

This come while, two top leaders of the Haqqani Network-- Anas Haqqani, the step-brother of Sarajudin Haqqani, was responsible for high-level decision making in the network and Hafiz Rashid was said to have overseen the preparation of suicide bombers for attacks inside Afghanistan-- were captured by the National Directorate of Security (NDS) a month ago.

The Haqqani network is one of the most dangerous groups that frequently target foreign and Afghan troops in Afghanistan.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 01 Nov 2014 05:47

Jane's outline:
http://www.janes.com/article/45221/canc ... g-pakistan

Since 2012, former president Hamid Karzai's administration had been seeking military aid from India to bolster the Afghan National Army, in addition to training (pledged by India in 2011) and ongoing Indian economic assistance.

Afghanistan's request reportedly included Cheetah light helicopters, A2.A18 105-milimetre howitzers, as well as tanks and trucks. However, India's previous United Progressive Alliance government and the current Bharatiya Janata Party-led government have failed to make a concrete decision. The Indian Express 's sources suggest that Indian government indecision, as well as Pakistan's probable ire at its main rival supplying arms to a neighbour, ultimately led to Ghani's decision to rescind the request.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 Nov 2014 08:09

How did this BhadraKumar make it into IFS? Must be very deep moles who let in such idiots into govt service.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 02 Nov 2014 09:00

ramana wrote:How did this BhadraKumar make it into IFS? Must be very deep moles who let in such idiots into govt service.

Mani Shankar Liar was also from IFS, no?

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 02 Nov 2014 09:25

nageshks wrote:
ramana wrote:How did this BhadraKumar make it into IFS? Must be very deep moles who let in such idiots into govt service.
Mani Shankar Liar was also from IFS, no?

after considerable influence was applied to overlook all his anti India activities that he carried out while studying in the UK.

This b@$%^&s poisonous stance was well known even before he was recruited into the IFS.

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 02 Nov 2014 10:44

^^Aiyar or Bhadra?

I mean, Aiyar's antecedents are known, but Bhadra too?

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 02 Nov 2014 16:55

SCMP says that China wants to play a bigger and deeper role in Afghanistan.

Whatever that means... just saying...

arun · Post by **arun** » 04 Nov 2014 17:29

X Posted from the STFUP thread.

pankajs wrote:Nothing new .. just putting it here

http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-pa ... on-2031945
Pakistan using militants as proxies to counter Indian army, says Pentagon

In a blunt assessment of terrorist safe havens in Pakistan, the Pentagon has told the US Congress that the country is using militant groups as proxies to counter the superior Indian military.

"Afghan-and Indian-focused militants continue to operate from Pakistan territory to the detriment of Afghan and regional stability. Pakistan uses these proxy forces to hedge against the loss of influence in Afghanistan and to counter India's superior military," the Pentagon told the Congress in its latest six-monthly report on the current situation in Afghanistan.

"These relationships run counter to Pakistan's public commitment to support Afghan-led reconciliation. Such groups continue to act as the primary irritant in Afghan-Pakistan bilateral relations," the Pentagon said in the report running into more than 100 pages.

Referring to the attack on the Indian Consulate in Herat, the Pentagon said this was done just ahead of the swearing-in ceremony of Narendra Modi as the Prime Minister of India.

That’s from page 95 of a US Department of Defence aka DoD aka Pentagon report dating to October 2014 titled “Progress Toward Security And stability In Afghanistan”.

As you said, nothing new for India as the Islamic Republic of Pakistan’s sponsorship of Mohammadden Terrorists has been seen in various forms over the decades starting from marauding “Tribesmen” running amok in J&K in 1947-48:

The quote is:

“Afghan- and Indian-focused militants continue to operate from Pakistan territory to the detriment of Afghan and regional stability. Pakistan uses these proxy forces to hedge against the loss of influence in Afghanistan and to counter India’s superior military. These relationships run counter to Pakistan’s public commitment to support Afghan-led reconciliation. Such groups continue to act as the primary irritant in Afghan-Pakistan bilateral relations.

Pakistan’s government has sought to increase engagement with Afghanistan. However, suspicion has surrounded the relationship between Kabul and Islamabad, inhibiting bilateral cooperation on border security protocols. It is possible that the new Afghan President, Dr. Ghani, will seek to change this dynamic, which Pakistan is likely to welcome. Although stability in Afghanistan is in the interest of Pakistan, Pakistan also seeks sufficient Pashtun representation in the Afghan government to prevent Pashtun discontent along the Afghan-Pakistan border and limit India’s influence.”

Pentagon report is available here:

Progress Toward Security And stability In Afghanistan

Meanwhile our Ministry of External Affairs had this to say:

"If international community is now acknowledging the fact that terrorism derives support from Pak, its something that we welcome,"

MEA welcomes Pentagon report that acknowledges Pak involvement in global terrorism

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 15 Nov 2014 20:20

I am surprised that Ghani's tilt towards Pakistan is not being discussed here. This is a setback for Indian interests. What does this mean for Indian interests in that region.

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 15 Nov 2014 20:42

"I am surprised that Ghani's tilt towards Pakistan is not being discussed here. This is a setback for Indian interests. What does this mean for Indian interests in that region."

I have wondered about this. Ghani was backed by the US so he would sign the BSA, and the US knew fully well that Ghani is being backed by Pakistan. All this drama and events surrounding Robin Raphel etc. should be viewed against this fact to know how irrelevant RR is -- a pro-India Karzai was sidelined by ensuring that the afghan elections ensured Ghani's victory in the end, and the BSA has been signed. Other than bringing in a new set of people of manage Pakistan I cannot see any change about to happen in terms of external meddling. Dalrmplyle's Brookings essay at the eve of withdrawal where he made Pakistan and India as the reason for the turmoil in afghanisthan shows that the US intent is to re-frame afghanisthan as a India-Pak problem. Have we already forgotten how the Manmohan singh and the MEA mutely were sidelined in all afghan conferences, and of course, the MMS govt. did not have the stomach or brains to think about the independently, unlike the current dispensation. Still the situation seems better than it was the last time around, but time will tell.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 15 Nov 2014 21:08

I dont know if Ghani's tilt towards Pakiland has anything to do with US backing for him. India preferred Abdullah Abdullah of the NA and also his Pashtun origin.

Secondly he has visited China, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan but not India and Iran. This inspite of Dival visiting him and extending a personal invitation to come to India.

All in all I think if Afghanistan stabilizes as a nation state that will be enough to create problems for Pakistan

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 15 Nov 2014 21:17

"Secondly he has visited China, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan but not India and Iran. This inspite of Dival visiting him and extending a personal invitation to come to India. "

Doesn't that indicate more than just a leaning towards pakistan and its allies? I cannot see how or why this crowd will motivate pakistan to stop creating trouble in afghanistan, unless the war moves into Pakistani territory and keeps them too busy to be focussed elsewhere.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 16 Nov 2014 15:37

Abdullah denies rift with Ghani over Cabinet

This has all the makings of a NS vs. BB rift. Need to watch the Panjshiri counter to Ghani. His Brookings background will ensure he is never pro India

anmol · Post by **anmol** » 16 Nov 2014 17:59

Welcome President Ghani!
by Najam Sethi, thefridaytimes.com
November 14th 2014

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani’s visit to Islamabad is critically important for one reason: given the burden of geography and history, there can be no peace, security and stability in Afghanistan without the active support of neighbour Pakistan. Therefore the visit should be aimed at ending the mutual distrust and hostility that has marred their relationship and paving the way for truth and reconciliation in cobbling a peaceful and stable Afghanistan.

On Islamabad’s part, it is clear that without a stable and neutral, if not friendly, Afghanistan, there will be no end to the scourge of terrorism that overflows the Af-Pak border and poses an equal existential threat to Pakistan. The new civil-military leadership in Pakistan understands this imperative and is keen to negotiate mutually beneficial solutions to national security problems with President Ghani.

There are some positive signs. Both countries have newly elected leaders who do not uncritically subscribe to the policies of their predecessors that sustained an environment of distrust and hostility. Pakistan has a new military leadership that is more responsive than its predecessors to the terrorist threat to Pakistan originating in Afghanistan. That is why Pakistan’s foreign minister, Sartaj Aziz, and army chief, General Raheel Sharif, were the first to visit Kabul and meet President Ghani. President Ghani has returned the compliment by visiting Pakistan before visiting India. President Ghani has also toured two of Pakistan’s closest friends and allies – China and Saudi Arabia – before going to India, clearly with a view to activating all the important variables in the equation. Most significantly, he has not tripped over himself in accepting the offer of Indian weapons for his army by India’s new national security advisor, Ajit Doval, who met him in Kabul last month.

Clearly, both Pakistan and Afghanistan have legitimate security concerns involving the policies of the other. So there has to be give and take, step by step.

President Ghani wants an end to the civil war and foreign intervention that has plagued his nation so that he can stabilize, unify and rebuild his country; he wants foreign investment to tap his country’s natural resources and fund his development budgets; and he wants a strong army to provide the framework for his country’s security. On the plus side, he has won an election to gain legitimacy, shared power with Abdullah Abdullah, a Tajik (Chief Executive) and Rashid Dostum, an Uzbek (Vice President) and is on the lookout for a new head of Afghan Intelligence who can start on a new slate with his new Pakistani counterpart. He has succeeded in persuading China to launch massive development projects worth billions of dollars in the next ten years. He retains the support of the international community, especially the US, in terms of economic aid and military umbrella. What is critically missing is a plan to end the civil war and terrorism that has laid Afghanistan low.

This is where a solid relationship with Pakistan is critical to President Ghani’s mission. The Taliban want to fight, not talk. They control large swathes of Afghan territory. And they have sanctuaries in Pakistan’s borderlands with Afghanistan. The Pakistani national security establishment has protected them for political leverage in Afghanistan aimed at forestalling any significant Indian footprint in Afghanistan that would put the East-West border squeeze on Pakistan. Efforts by the Afghan government and US to erode and break-up the Afghan Taliban/Pakistan “alliance” have failed to yield fruit. In fact, Indian and Afghan support for Baloch insurgents/separatists with sanctuaries in Afghanistan have hardened Pakistan’s resolve to “use” the Taliban to hurt Indian interests in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s refusal to help Afghanistan’s broken economy by way of opening trade corridors between Central Asia and India is also a direct result of its “enemy-India” outlook.

The problem is that until now the US and Afghanistan have refused to heed Pakistan’s India-related security concerns, which has made Islamabad all the more desperate to hang on to the Taliban as a means of redressing them. This is accentuated by the fact that India refuses to move forward on conflict resolution with Pakistan even on less contentious issues than Kashmir.

However, the outcrop of Taliban terrorism inside Pakistan has compelled a rethink of national security strategy by the new civil-military leadership. This is based on establishing better relations with India as a prelude to better relations with Afghanistan.

Unfortunately, the Modi government has dashed hopes of forward movement by heating up the Line of Control and calling off the foreign secretary talks scheduled last August. This has compelled Pakistan to hold off giving MFN status to India. Under the circumstances, any attempt by India to buttress its leverage with the new Afghan regime is bound to antagonize Pakistan further. President Ashraf Ghani knows that foreign relations are all about quid pro quos. If he wants to reset ties with Pakistan to his advantage, he has to start by making sure that Afghanistan’s ties with India will no longer be to Pakistan’s disadvantage.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 16 Nov 2014 18:47

If he wants to reset ties with Pakistan to his advantage, he has to start by making sure that Afghanistan’s ties with India will no longer be to Pakistan’s disadvantage.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 16 Nov 2014 21:28

Lots of excitement on Ghanis's visit to TSP and his Paki tilt. Maleeha Lodhi has deep connection to the TSP establishment.

Question is, if Pakistan goes to the extent of clamping down on Afghan Taliban, what will this do to Mullah Omar? What will be his alternative employment.

member_25399 · Post by **member_25399** » 17 Nov 2014 09:54

Given the pre-election build up, it was sure that Ghani will tilt up towards TSP, Khan etc .
I would like to see how Abdullah reacts to this. Anyone has any news on that ?

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 17 Nov 2014 14:07

Ghani is chosen by America, Pakis and Saudis, UAE- same suspects who backed Taliban, unfortunately for the Afgan public, this has all the markings of the Taliban making a comeback. Better we keep the NA miltia ready. it wont be long before Mullah Omar is back in Khandahar.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 17 Nov 2014 14:12

NA should slowly pan out its presence and should come out to make its presence felt only at the right moment. Otherwise NA will be used as a common enemy to unite many other tribes and chieftains currently at loggerheads. This should be played smartly.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 17 Nov 2014 17:30

Tuvaluan wrote:"Secondly he has visited China, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan but not India and Iran. This inspite of Dival visiting him and extending a personal invitation to come to India. "

Doesn't that indicate more than just a leaning towards pakistan and its allies?

I suppose this is due to scheduling problems. Not much should be read into that IMHO.

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 17 Nov 2014 22:11

I dunno why Indians have an obsession with Afghanistan. The only thing we want is that the Indian airplanes are not hijacked and taken there. That wont happen unless a pariah state like Taliban is in power. With US bases in Afghanistan, its unlikely that any of that is gonna happen.

IMHO, the Pakis and the Ghanis can either give the Malsi pasand Sharia rule or keep fighting. No social change is coming about in the Pashtoon jaahil area anytime soon. So if Afghanistan is friendly to India, fine. If its not, let them enjoy the benefits of Malsism.

In fact, IMHO the billions spent by India trying to develop Afghanistan was a waste too. It was a flawed policy based on the moorakh malsi appeasement idea of the Con party. Unless you can back up your investment with force or are getting something in return for it, why the benevolence?!

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 18 Nov 2014 14:38

^^ I understood Ghanis elevation to power as a morse code for US tacitly admitting that Pak had its interests in Af and wanted to cover their interests... so they can hurry the hell out.

However, with the advent of IS, it might be interesting to see how it pans out. Not that they are directly related... but indirectly, sure. they are.

In the meanwhile, the zub zub opn moves on smoothly [cough, cough]. Pak is razing dilapidated buildings, giving newer contracts for the building developers etc etc.
Army also will get its whisky in a while, once the opn achieves its success - can go with the hats in the hands to their puppet masters.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 18 Nov 2014 17:38

Ghani agrees to target Pak. Taliban - PTI

Afghanistan has agreed to target militants attacking Pakistan from alleged sanctuaries on its soil, in a significant move which suggests a thaw in their frayed ties and anti-terror cooperation between them.

Pakistan had demanded Afghanistan through official and unofficial channels to uproot the chief of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, Mullah Fazlullah, hiding with dozens of supporters in Kunar province.

The assurance came from Afghan President Ashraf Ghani during his talks with Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Army Chief Gen Raheel Sharif in his just-concluded maiden trip to Pakistan, officials familiar with the development told The Express Tribune .

A security official said there was a visible shift in Afghanistan’s approach since the new government took over in September this year. “We have had very frank and candid discussions with the Afghan President and he agreed that terrorist sanctuaries will be dismantled on the Afghan side,” he said.

The commitment was given after Ghani was briefed ‘with evidence’ that Pakistan’s ongoing operation in North Waziristan was targeting ‘terrorists of all shades’, including the deadly Haqqani Network

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 18 Nov 2014 19:31

PaulJi, I hate the Paki RAPEs like Jihadi Lodhi, Jihadi Zaidi with passion that I know in general what they will spew. They speak with suavae tongue, lying through their teeth and I don't know if they actually know they are lying or what they its just delusions of grandeur; so update me on what Jihadi Lodhi said. You absolutely right, she is neck deep and part of RAPE face of TSPA/ISI.

Neshant · Post by **Neshant** » 21 Nov 2014 13:36

Woman dresses like a guy so she is not hassled with when travelling in Afghanistan.

But to me she looks too feminine to be a guy.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 21 Nov 2014 13:50

Pak, Afghan to jointly counter terror threats as their ties improve - DT

Pakistan and Afghanistan will jointly counter the threats of terrorism, violent extremism and transnational crime with strong common resolve, and move to forge a mutually beneficial economic relationship, a Pakistani diplomat told the UN General Assembly on Thursday.

Speaking in a debate on the situation in Afghanistan, Pakistan’s permanent representative to the UN Ambassador Masood Khan said that Afghan President Ashraf Ghani’s visit to Islamabad and talks with Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif last week marked a “holistic renewal of our relationship.” “Non-state actors should not be allowed to dictate Pak-Afghan bilateral relations,” he said, adding “Our relationship must be based on mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity and marked by trust and cooperation.”

“On our side, we are prosecuting operation Zarb-e-Azb to take out terrorists and take down their networks. There is zero tolerance for them. {Bravo} Our nation and our valiant armed forces are determined to fight this war to the finish,” he said. “There are no bad or good terrorists,” he said. “Terrorists are criminals, plain and simple. Action is being taken against them, without distinction and differentiation {Hurrah}.”

The soil of Pakistan, he said, would be cleansed of the twin scourges of terrorism and violent extremism{Bravo}. Action on the Afghan side of the border would ensure the annihilation of the toxic ideology of terrorism. “In this regard, we appreciate the steps being taken by the Afghan government for simultaneous operations on the Afghan side of the border to address specific security situations,” he said.

The ambassador said that Pakistan supported Afghanistan’s electoral process through enhancing security on their shared border. The two States had resolved to forge robust economic partnerships to expand trade, promote investment, improve infrastructure, build road and rail links, and generate energy. He also envisaged collaboration with Afghanistan on reconstruction, border security and defence, capacity building, education and the parliamentary exchanges {Obviously, some breakthrough has been achieved and that is why there is a sudden outburst of such speeches and articles. It is plainly laughable that Pakistan is speaking about education, parliament, reconstruction etc}.

Stressing that past mistakes of abandoning Afghanistan should not be repeated, he said that Afghanistan’s security institutions would require substantial assistance for years to come. The two countries would jointly counter the threats of terrorism, violent extremism, transnational crime and a precarious security environment with a strong common resolve and coordinated endeavours.

Pakistan was encouraged by President Ghani’s decision to give priority to the matter of refugees, given that more than three million documented and undocumented refugees still continued to live on Pakistan’s soil. As host to the largest, single country, chronic refugee caseload, Pakistan had extended the refugees stay until the end of 2015, despite constraints on its resources. However, to deal with the refugees in Pakistan, the office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees must enhance its assistance.

The international donor community should earmark resources for the rehabilitation and repatriation of refugees {give us more money, the Pakis never fail to beg at the slightest opportunity of smelling blood} , he said, adding the Afghan government should pay special attention to livelihoods and housing to absorb returning refugees.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 21 Nov 2014 13:57

Ghani seems to be a Taliban redux, backed by Saudis Pakis, GCC and Uncle. Guess they have agreed this new regime will not attack US or US interests. But given its nature, they cannot resist and US is going to pay the price for supporting the Sunni gang yet again.

Fear for poor Afgans, there are tough times ahead.